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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 12th August 2019, 07:08 AM   #321
WilliamSeger
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
The way the elections work, however, means that it is not necessarily about how many people a particular policy hurts (compared to how many it helps). Moreover it is about where those people happen to vote.
But it's costing jobs in that same rust belt, and it's costing consumers everywhere.

Forbes: Tariffs Are Costing Jobs: A Look At How Many
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Old 12th August 2019, 07:23 AM   #322
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
Bernie Sanders was on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast. Personally I feel this type of format is far more informative than the pathetic Democratic "debates".

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I AGREE

Geez. Is there any doubt that this guy understands the issues and can do the job?

I think it's highly unlikely he gets most of his ideas through congress, but even at 137 years old, he's a breath of fresh air.
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Old 12th August 2019, 07:45 AM   #323
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Legislation is the same as impeachment proceedings: the fact that the other side will vote against it and defeat it is not a reason not to do it. It's just different kind of reason why you should: to make them be seen taking that stand .
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Old 12th August 2019, 07:53 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I doubt that premise.
The trade war with China- (even with deleterious effects on the general economy)-will play very well in the "rust belt".
Remember that it became the "rust" belt largely due to the competition from Asia beginning in the 70s and 80s.
The tariffs are exactly the type of policy the people of those regions feel are needed, unfortunately they are about 40 years too late.
The rust belt also has zero patience for another politician who repeats all the time, "look, everything is all better now!" while their factories are still shuttered, their schools are still terrible, and their friends are still overdosing on pills.

They understand the difference between the DJIA and main street. For some segment of them (and we only need a few % in a few districts), his promises are now black Mark's, not victories.

ETA: at the same time, though, if we repeat the Schumer strategy, that potential advantage is negated and it's the same ethnic nationalism/evangelicals vs. socialists fight we've had for 30 years.

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Old 12th August 2019, 08:26 AM   #325
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Wouldn't it be ironic, after all his posturing to his deplorables, if Trump turns out to be the victim of voter apathy this time -- can't bring themselves to vote for the Dem but can't vote for that ******** again.
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Old 12th August 2019, 08:29 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
: dl :

Much to your probable disappointment, few on this forum are stupid enough to believe you actually support Williamson.
Also wrong.

Also, the stupidity of this forum does not disappoint.

---

But look at it this way:

We both agree that Williamson would make a better president than Donald Trump, yes?

And we both agree that it would annoy the Democratic establishment to no end if she were elected, yes?

Then why do you find it so hard to believe that I would prefer Williamson over any other Dem in the primaries, and prefer her over Trump in the general?
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Old 12th August 2019, 09:11 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
But it's costing jobs in that same rust belt
Bullcrap.

Ohio's unemployment rate is dropping like a rock. It's at 4%. Same with Pennsylvania, 4%. West Virginia's is at 4.8%. Indiana's is at 3.3%.

The mythical "Blue Wall" that Democrats swore up and down they had lost them the last election and they ain't getting it back when the unemployment rate is averaging out to below 4% and dropping.

You ain't winning against "4% unemployment in Ohio, when it was 10% or more as recently as 2010."

And yes, I'm aware of what under-employement is.

Trump: "Unemployment in the Rust Belt hasn't been lower in years!"
Democrats: "Okay well that's over simplifying it. You see (continues on for 5 minutes perfectly accurately about quality of jobs, living wage, upward mobility, wage stagnation, wage inequality, how the unemployment rate can be effected by people no longer looking for jobs, and the price of tea in China.)"

Trump just won.

He has a simple, concise "technically correct" out of context soundbite.

They have a longer, more nuance, more actually correct argument.

He wins.
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Old 12th August 2019, 09:13 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post

---

But look at it this way:

We both agree that Williamson would make a better president than Donald Trump, yes?
You would make a better president then Trump. So would I.
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Old 12th August 2019, 09:14 AM   #329
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A Roomba put on a Ouiji board would make a better President then Trump.
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Old 12th August 2019, 09:16 AM   #330
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Just saw Williamson being interviewed by Trevor Noah. As Trevor noted, she seems less crazy when she has time for a complete answer.

I think she has the right approach, but I don't know if she is the right candidate.

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I AGREE


Not sure if that is the full interview as it was shown on CC online or the shorter version that aired.
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Old 12th August 2019, 09:19 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
At this point, I really don't see any way for Trump to win regardless of who we run, so I think we should just focus on picking the one who will do the best job. Trump was already in serious trouble with independents -- 52% will "definitely not" be voting for him -- yet he's stuck in the mode of pitching the same demagoguery and alternate reality crap to the same adoring base. Conventional wisdom said he had some chance if the economy was still good next year, but his idiotic trade war has shot that chance all to hell. The election will be Trump's unshakable base versus an anti-Trump blowout.
then youre naive because assumed the last time around that Hillary was a shoe in, and we have Trump as President. Complacency among democrats played a role in that.
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Old 12th August 2019, 09:58 AM   #332
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Bullcrap.

Ohio's unemployment rate is dropping like a rock. It's at 4%. Same with Pennsylvania, 4%. West Virginia's is at 4.8%. Indiana's is at 3.3%.

The mythical "Blue Wall" that Democrats swore up and down they had lost them the last election and they ain't getting it back when the unemployment rate is averaging out to below 4% and dropping.

You ain't winning against "4% unemployment in Ohio, when it was 10% or more as recently as 2010."

And yes, I'm aware of what under-employement is.

Trump: "Unemployment in the Rust Belt hasn't been lower in years!"
Democrats: "Okay well that's over simplifying it. You see (continues on for 5 minutes perfectly accurately about quality of jobs, living wage, upward mobility, wage stagnation, wage inequality, how the unemployment rate can be effected by people no longer looking for jobs, and the price of tea in China.)"

Trump just won.

He has a simple, concise "technically correct" out of context soundbite.

They have a longer, more nuance, more actually correct argument.

He wins.
Yes, Ohio unemployment, has been dropping since 2010, like elsewhere, but it is undeniable that Trump's tariffs have cost jobs and brought farms to the verge of collapse, and now he has escalated. There is no doubt that overall the trade war is bad for the economy, and Trump is stuck with simply claiming that it isn't. People will decide based on their own circumstance, not labor statistics. The election is more than a year away, and Trump is betting (your) farm on winning his trade war.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:02 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by rockysmith76 View Post
then youre naive because assumed the last time around that Hillary was a shoe in, and we have Trump as President. Complacency among democrats played a role in that.
Nope, not naive; everyone paying attention knows what it will take to defeat Trump, and it worked pretty well in 2018. As I've said, if you're not expecting a massive GOTV effort, then you may be in for a big surprise.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:02 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Yes, Ohio unemployment, has been dropping since 2010, like elsewhere, but it is undeniable that Trump's tariffs have cost jobs and brought farms to the verge of collapse, and now he has escalated. There is no doubt that overall the trade war is bad for the economy, and Trump is stuck with simply claiming that it isn't. People will decide based on their own circumstance, not labor statistics. The election is more than a year away, and Trump is betting (your) farm on winning his trade war.
This.

In fact quoting statistics as if to say "see, it's fixed" makes people think their problems are about to get ignored even more.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:05 AM   #335
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Yes, Ohio unemployment, has been dropping since 2010, like elsewhere, but it is undeniable that Trump's tariffs have cost jobs and brought farms to the verge of collapse, and now he has escalated. There is no doubt that overall the trade war is bad for the economy, and Trump is stuck with simply claiming that it isn't. People will decide based on their own circumstance, not labor statistics. The election is more than a year away, and Trump is betting (your) farm on winning his trade war.
Which "farm State" is going to go blue under any circumstance?
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:09 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
But look at it this way:

We both agree that Williamson would make a better president than Donald Trump, yes?

And we both agree that it would annoy the Democratic establishment to no end if she were elected, yes?

Then why do you find it so hard to believe that I would prefer Williamson over any other Dem in the primaries, and prefer her over Trump in the general?
A frisbee lost in a field, being drooled on by a cow would make a better president than Trump. That doesn’t mean an intelligent person should promote the idea.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:17 AM   #337
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Which "farm State" is going to go blue under any circumstance?
Well, in Ohio, the last poll I saw had Biden beating Trump by 8 points.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:33 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Well, in Ohio, the last poll I saw had Biden beating Trump by 8 points.
Oh really? Well the last 200 polls I saw in Oct, 2016 had Hillary winning the election.

Can we please put a goddamn shock collar on the Dems so they get zapped every time one of them says "Well the polls say..."

LISTENING TO THE POLLS LOST YOU THE LAST ELECTION.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:38 AM   #339
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
This.

In fact quoting statistics as if to say "see, it's fixed" makes people think their problems are about to get ignored even more.
At every opportunity, Trump boasts about having the lowest black unemployment in history, despite the fact that he has done absolutely nothing that deserves any credit for that. Then, when a perfect opportunity arose to show how concerned he was about the issue -- when FOX showed him that slum in Baltimore -- all he could think of was how to blame their Congressman for it and tell him to go home and fix it. Because Trump is going golfing.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:41 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by Cabbage View Post
Like I said previously, they're going to be smeared by the GOP regardless of what they propose. And I think you overestimate the influence that the GOP's lies have on independents--
And yet we have Trump.

Quote:
...there is significant support for many of the free ponies you mention, as well. After decades of having government placate corporations and the wealthy I think many independents will be ready for at least a push in the direction that Warren proposes (and I say "at least a push" because I think that's what it will amount to at best; assuming she even wins the presidency I strongly doubt Congress will OK a lot of what she proposes....I do think, however, that a significant number of Americans really want that push to happen).
Obviously there is support for Sanders and Warren. Just now on CSPAN the crowd cheered wildly for Yang's universal income of $1000/month for everyone.

I understand the Bernie movement. There is no sense arguing this with you anymore than there is sense arguing the rational world with Trump lovers.

I don't believe the voting public is anywhere close to voting in what will quickly be labeled "redistribution of the wealth". Trump will campaign on the "great economy" and he'll win.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:44 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Its a shame that Bidens' years seem to be catching up with him faster than he can get to the general election.
I don't see any of the other front runners as being likely to unseat Trump.
Nonsense. There are some very strong candidates in the mix. Biden is one of the weakest. The only reason he is ahead is everyone else is splitting the rest of the vote.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:44 AM   #342
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Nonsense. There are some very strong candidates in the mix.
Stronger than Hillary? And I mean 2016 Hillary not now Hillary.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:51 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by Pterodactyl View Post
Geez. Is there any doubt that this guy understands the issues and can do the job?

I think it's highly unlikely he gets most of his ideas through congress, but even at 137 years old, he's a breath of fresh air.
Sanders has all the right ideas except the idea that he can sell them with a youth movement and a movement of waking up a large mass of apathetic citizens.
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Old 12th August 2019, 10:59 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
...
But look at it this way:

We both agree that Williamson would make a better president than Donald Trump, yes?
So would an orangoutang. Your framing of that question is dishonest.

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
...And we both agree that it would annoy the Democratic establishment to no end if she were elected, yes?
No, I don't agree with that at all. Were the Democrats to elect Williamson as their candidate, it would mean they wanted her.

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
...Then why do you find it so hard to believe that I would prefer Williamson over any other Dem in the primaries, and prefer her over Trump in the general?
Trolling was one of the possibilities.
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:01 AM   #345
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
A Roomba put on a Ouiji board would make a better President then Trump.
Wins the analogy contest!!!!
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:04 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Yes, Ohio unemployment, has been dropping since 2010, like elsewhere, but it is undeniable that Trump's tariffs have cost jobs and brought farms to the verge of collapse, and now he has escalated. There is no doubt that overall the trade war is bad for the economy, and Trump is stuck with simply claiming that it isn't. People will decide based on their own circumstance, not labor statistics. The election is more than a year away, and Trump is betting (your) farm on winning his trade war.
People need to be reminded, farmers are not counted in the unemployment rolls.
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:06 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
And yet we have Trump.
Trump happened in spite of GOP lies, not because of them.
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:07 AM   #348
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Stronger than Hillary? And I mean 2016 Hillary not now Hillary.
I'm not sure why you are comparing completely different circumstances.

Hillary was a great candidate and would have won had she seen the social media attack and addressed it.
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:09 AM   #349
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Originally Posted by wasapi View Post
You would make a better president then Trump. So would I.
Put your hat in the ring, and if you end up sounding any saner than Marianne Williamson (or Donald Trump for that matter), I'll consider switching my vote.
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:11 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Hillary was a great candidate and would have won had she seen the social media attack and addressed it.
"Would have won had not X happned" is still losing.

And you think 2016 was hard? Think about it, Trump knows if he loses the Presidency or if the Senate goes Blue in 2020 he's looking at a probable prison sentence.

This is going to be the dirtiest campaign in history.

Everything they threw against Hillary in 2016 they are gonna sling times 10 at whoever the Dems decide to put up.
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:20 AM   #351
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Trump happened in spite of GOP lies, not because of them.


That's on the surface. Look under the hood.

I suggest you start with Cyberwar: How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President - What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know

Jamieson's university page
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:24 AM   #352
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
"Would have one only if" is still losing.

And you think 2016 was hard? Think about it, Trump knows if loses the Presidency or if the Senate goes Blue in 2020 he's looking at a probable prison sentence.

This is going to be the dirtiest campaign in history.

Everything they threw against Hillary in 2016 they are gonna sling times 10 at whoever the Dems decide to put up.
Of course they are. And if the Democrats don't learn from their mistakes in the 2016 election, we run a huge risk of losing again.
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:24 AM   #353
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Originally Posted by wasapi View Post
You would make a better president then Trump. So would I.
I'd vote for any regular in this subforum over Trump.
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:31 AM   #354
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lol, Travis for President!
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Old 12th August 2019, 11:36 AM   #355
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
lol, Travis for President!
Build The Train!
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Old 12th August 2019, 12:01 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Also wrong.

Also, the stupidity of this forum does not disappoint.

---

But look at it this way:

We both agree that Williamson would make a better president than Donald Trump, yes?

And we both agree that it would annoy the Democratic establishment to no end if she were elected, yes?

Then why do you find it so hard to believe that I would prefer Williamson over any other Dem in the primaries, and prefer her over Trump in the general?
Are you going to register as a democrat and vote for her in the primaries?
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Old 12th August 2019, 12:14 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
I'd vote for any regular in this subforum over Trump.
It should be noted that unlike Marianne Williamson, none of the regulars on this forum have earned the campaign donations or the polling numbers necessary to even be relevant to the question.
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Old 12th August 2019, 12:37 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Well, in Ohio, the last poll I saw had Biden beating Trump by 8 points.
I file Ohio Under "rust belt", not "farm state".

How does the rest of the field match up there, though. Does any other Democrat come out better than "within margin of error"?
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Old 12th August 2019, 12:38 PM   #359
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Nonsense. There are some very strong candidates in the mix. Biden is one of the weakest. The only reason he is ahead is everyone else is splitting the rest of the vote.
Which of the candidates that are "splitting the vote" does as well as Biden against Trump?
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Old 12th August 2019, 12:40 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It should be noted that unlike Marianne Williamson, none of the regulars on this forum have earned the campaign donations or the polling numbers necessary to even be relevant to the question.
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