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Tags donald trump , political predictions , prediction threads

View Poll Results: What are the chances that Donald Trump will end up in prison?
100% 3 3.41%
75% 5 5.68%
50% 13 14.77%
25% 16 18.18%
0% - Donald Trump has a better chance of ending up on Planet X. 51 57.95%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11th July 2019, 08:15 AM   #41
TragicMonkey
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I think it is dangerous, very dangerous, to assume the Republicans don't have their own image to worry about. Yes they will within a metaphysical screw with the next Democratic President regardless, but how they will do is up in the air and that "how" matters more then you'd think.

Especially since right now the Dems are trying to find a way to take out Trump without the normal channels that require a majority. Any such actions are not a genie that will politely go back in the bottle.

Do you want to hand a future Republican minority lead Senate the means to take out a sitting Democratic President? Or a future 5-4 Conservative minority Supreme Court the same?

Again... "It can't get any worse" has pretty much literally never not being proven wrong.

Alls I'm saying is right now the Democrats are straining at the seems to find a way to take out Trump without a majority/political power in the places that are supposed to keep a President in line; mainly the Senate and SCOTUS. Such territory is not well mapped and should be trodden on lightly.
The time for the "let's be civilized" speech is before the barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:20 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
The time for the "let's be civilized" speech is before the barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.
And yes and it's before the Barbarian Horde has the majority of elected positions inside your city walls as well.

And even beyond that there's a lot of space between "Let's be civilized" and "Let's do something guaranteed to fail and bite us in the ass later just for a feel good moral victory."

Unless someone has a plan on the table that is gonna permanently cut all political power out from under the Republicans and all social power out from under conservatives that they just haven't shared with the class yet, they aren't going away when all this is said and done. They're still going to be a major political and social force.

Questions of "How are they gonna react?" does not a "play nice" make.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:34 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Quote:
Why waste your time and emotional energy hating just one man. Don't you think that some of your 62,984,828 fellow Americans should also share in the punishment?
Your numbers are a bit off.
How do you figure?

62,984,828 is the number of voters who voted for Trump in the 2016 election. There was every indication that Trump was a racist prior to the election. There was every indication that he was a poor businessman prior to the election. There was every indication he was a scam artist prior to the election. Yet those 62 million people said "Yup that's who I want for president".

Trump may have been the one that was elected. He is the one spouting racist rhetoric. But without all of his supporters, he'd just be the lunatic rambling on about imaginary conspiracy theories to nobody in particular. Those 63 million voters are part of the reason the U.S. is in the situation it is in.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:40 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I think it is dangerous, very dangerous, to assume the Republicans don't have their own image to worry about. Yes they will within a metaphysical screw with the next Democratic President regardless, but how they will do is up in the air and that "how" matters more then you'd think.

Especially since right now the Dems are trying to find a way to take out Trump without the normal channels that require a majority. Any such actions are not a genie that will politely go back in the bottle.

Do you want to hand a future Republican minority lead Senate the means to take out a sitting Democratic President? Or a future 5-4 Conservative minority Supreme Court the same?

Again... "It can't get any worse" has pretty much literally never not being proven wrong.

Alls I'm saying is right now the Democrats are straining at the seems to find a way to take out Trump without a majority/political power in the places that are supposed to keep a President in line; mainly the Senate and SCOTUS. Such territory is not well mapped and should be trodden on lightly.
Hell he has given up on the idea that the supreme court matters and republicans are OK with that, so can we at least say that american democracy with the idea of separation of powers and checks and balances is now dead?

Ignoring the supreme court isn't going to get republicans to turn on him, so sure it can get worse but of course we are already getting worse and worse. We are damned no matter what I guess.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:44 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
We are damned no matter what I guess.
Again if your argument really is "All is lost" fine, but don't act like that's not what your argument is.

I'm almost tempted to start really asking people if they honestly just think Trump has won and everything they are saying is just a veiled code word for "Screw with him as much as possible in the small amount time we have left."
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:45 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
And everyone knows if we punish a sitting or recently departed Republican President, that's it. We're done. The Republicans will to save face try to take down the next Democratic President. Their honor will demand it.
The problem with that argument is that an actual arrest/incarceration of a recently departed Democratic president would actually have to get past the legal system (which sort of requires a crime of some sort be committed). Republican congress-critters cannot just "lock 'em up"; charges have to be brought by a prosecutor/grand jury, and then they would have to be convicted by a jury.

Now, there is the possibility that a republican-controlled congress might try to impeach (even if they couldn't jail) a democratic president. But, if they haven't done anything wrong, it could backfire on the republicans (as we saw Clinton's popularity increase after his impeachment.)
Quote:
Impeachments, indictments, investigations... those are running the risk of just becoming standard tools of politics like the filibuster and the government shutdowns if we're not careful. Does anyone really want to see that?
They already are. The republicans have been using those tactics for years, and even if the democrats "take the high road", the republicans will continue to use them.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:47 AM   #47
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Okay then. When do we round up the Republicans and put them in camps?

I'm sick of this "Nothing matters no matter what we do" excuse after suggestions have been made or discussed as to what to do.

If everything is lost and we can't do anything, say that. Start there, don't end there.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:48 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Again if your argument really is "All is lost" fine, but don't act like that's not what your argument is.

I'm almost tempted to start really asking people if they honestly just think Trump has won and everything they are saying is just a veiled code word for "Screw with him as much as possible in the small amount time we have left."
No but Trump keeps winning and there are no lines that republicans will hold him accountable for. With out there being some actual line he can cross that would get republicans to turn on him he can and will keep eroding american democracy.

And the answer to that is to do nothing to stop the erosion of democracy, and that I have a problem with.

Nixon was right it is legal when the president does it and he should just have ignored all the investigations because no president will ever be held accountable for their crimes.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:50 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Okay then. When do we round up the Republicans and put them in camps?

I'm sick of this "Nothing matters no matter what we do" excuse after suggestions have been made or discussed as to what to do.

If everything is lost and we can't do anything, say that. Start there, don't end there.
We will have to see how the upcoming civil war plays out. It is going to get far worse before it can get better.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:55 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Okay then. When do we round up the Republicans and put them in camps?

I'm sick of this "Nothing matters no matter what we do" excuse after suggestions have been made or discussed as to what to do.

If everything is lost and we can't do anything, say that. Start there, don't end there.
What suggestions were offered, again? Maybe I missed one, but I don't particularly find 'don't let the already commonly used Republican tactics become common, or the Republicans will use them' to be much of a suggestion.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:55 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
How do you figure?

62,984,828 is the number of voters who voted for Trump in the 2016 election. There was every indication that Trump was a racist prior to the election. There was every indication that he was a poor businessman prior to the election. There was every indication he was a scam artist prior to the election. Yet those 62 million people said "Yup that's who I want for president".

Trump may have been the one that was elected. He is the one spouting racist rhetoric. But without all of his supporters, he'd just be the lunatic rambling on about imaginary conspiracy theories to nobody in particular. Those 63 million voters are part of the reason the U.S. is in the situation it is in.
Ok I hadn't understood psi's point, there.
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Old 11th July 2019, 08:57 AM   #52
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And again this all goes back to a fundamental question, have the Democrats actually tried everything within "the system" (speaking both formally and informally, both politically and socially) against Trump and... I don't think they have. Not by a long shot.
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Old 11th July 2019, 09:04 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
And again this all goes back to a fundamental question, have the Democrats actually tried everything within "the system" (speaking both formally and informally, both politically and socially) against Trump and... I don't think they have. Not by a long shot.
Ok, what exactly do you think they should be doing?

They are opening up multiple investigations in congress, but you seem to be saying "don't do that, it will only open up the chance Republicans will also open up investigations against a Democratic president".

They can't try to work with the republicans in a bipartisan way... the way the republicans have crammed through tax legislation and senate confirmations has illustrated that point.

They can try appealing to the electorate, but with the flaws in the American electoral system (electoral college, gerrymandering, and voter suppression) that won't really go very far.

They can try presenting their message to the voters in a clear way, but as 2016 illustrated, a big part of the electorate is actually happier with the illogical racist rantings of a bigot.

So what tactics do you think the Democrats are overlooking?
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Old 11th July 2019, 09:30 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Ok, what exactly do you think they should be doing?

They are opening up multiple investigations in congress, but you seem to be saying "don't do that, it will only open up the chance Republicans will also open up investigations against a Democratic president".

They can't try to work with the republicans in a bipartisan way... the way the republicans have crammed through tax legislation and senate confirmations has illustrated that point.

They can try appealing to the electorate, but with the flaws in the American electoral system (electoral college, gerrymandering, and voter suppression) that won't really go very far.

They can try presenting their message to the voters in a clear way, but as 2016 illustrated, a big part of the electorate is actually happier with the illogical racist rantings of a bigot.

So what tactics do you think the Democrats are overlooking?
And see you've already pre-excused everything so it can be dismissed.

I say win more elections, you'll throw up your hands and go "We can't because of dirty elections and gerrymandering and the electoral college and Russia."

Say do anything political, you'll throw up your hands and go "The Republicans won't let us."

So what's left other then the metaphorical guillotine?

My answer is win some elections even though the deck is stacked against you.

Get back INTO power and THEN try to change things. Don't treat those two things like the same process.

We're down hard now.

We hold the House.

They have the Presidency, the Senate, the SCOTUS, 27 out of 50 governorship, and 32 state legislatures (Dems only hold 14, 3 are divided and Nebraska's is... weird).

They are holding all the cards. Those 32 state legislatures are the ones drawing those gerrymandered districts and those 27 governors are the ones letting them do it. That 5-4 Majority on SCOTUS is what is making any legal challenge to Trump pointless. Controlling the House but not the Senate turns Congressional Democrats into Beat Cops that can patrol and investigate but not arrest or charge anyone.

Getting some of those back (even if "*Whine* they aren't playing fair *Whine*") has got to be our first priority.

But that's slow. And not sexy. And not fun. But it's what we need to do.

We need to win some elections.
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Old 11th July 2019, 09:35 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
And see you've already pre-excused everything so it can be dismissed.

I say win more elections, you'll throw up your hands and go "We can't because of dirty elections and gerrymandering and the electoral college and Russia."

Say do anything political, you'll throw up your hands and go "The Republicans won't let us."

So what's left other then the metaphorical guillotine?

My answer is win some elections even though the deck is stacked against you.

Get back INTO power and THEN try to change things. Don't treat those two things like the same process.

We're down hard now.

We hold the House.

They have the Presidency, the Senate, the SCOTUS, 27 out of 50 governorship, and 32 state legislatures (Dems only hold 14, 3 are divided and Nebraska's is... weird).

They are holding all the cards. Those 32 state legislatures are the ones drawing those gerrymandered districts and those 27 governors are the ones letting them do it. That 5-4 Majority on SCOTUS is what is making any legal challenge to Trump pointless. Controlling the House but not the Senate turns Congressional Democrats into Beat Cops that can patrol and investigate but not arrest or charge anyone.

Getting some of those back (even if "*Whine* they aren't playing fair *Whine*") has got to be our first priority.

But that's slow. And not sexy. And not fun. But it's what we need to do.

We need to win some elections.
Great plan. If the Dems win enough elections to take the Senate, then they will almost certainly also take the Presidency. Of course, this is not really an answer to what they should try against Trump, as 1) they're already trying to win elections and b) the elections aren't taking place now.
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Old 11th July 2019, 09:41 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Great plan. If the Dems win enough elections to take the Senate, then they will almost certainly also take the Presidency. Of course, this is not really an answer to what they should try against Trump, as 1) they're already trying to win elections and b) the elections aren't taking place now.
Well yeah the solution might not happen right this second. Sorry that's politics.
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Old 11th July 2019, 09:44 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Well yeah the solution might not happen right this second. Sorry that's politics.
If the solution happens after it isn't needed anymore, is it really a solution?
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Old 11th July 2019, 09:53 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
If the solution happens after it isn't needed anymore, is it really a solution?
Again short of the guillotine what's our third (or forth depending on exactly how you want to look at it) option?

You need political power for a political solution. The Dems don't have it right now.

You need to win elections for political power. That's not for another 1-3 years minimum depending how the elections play out.

I mean I guess getting enough Republicans to the table is... a Hail Mary. I mean there's been some distention in the ranks and we have seen at least one person... if not cross the aisle at least decide the stand in the middle.

Can we get enough Republicans for it to matter on a timescale that matters? I reaaaalllllyyyy doubt it but... maybe. I mean we are living in the age of "Weirder Things Have Happened."
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Old 11th July 2019, 09:53 AM   #59
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:11 AM   #60
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The Edwin Edwards line about losing an election paraphrased for fearless leader:

The only way I can lose this election go to prison is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy".
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:13 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Again short of the guillotine what's our third (or forth depending on exactly how you want to look at it) option?

You need political power for a political solution. The Dems don't have it right now.

You need to win elections for political power. That's not for another 1-3 years minimum depending how the elections play out.

I mean I guess getting enough Republicans to the table is... a Hail Mary. I mean there's been some distention in the ranks and we have seen at least one person... if not cross the aisle at least decide the stand in the middle.

Can we get enough Republicans for it to matter on a timescale that matters? I reaaaalllllyyyy doubt it but... maybe. I mean we are living in the age of "Weirder Things Have Happened."
You said the Dems haven't tried everything within the system against Trump. Right now, your only solutions is to wait til Trump isn't in office anymore. I'm not saying we go French Revolution, I'm saying your solution isn't helpful at all.
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:15 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
The time for the "let's be civilized" speech is before the barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.
It is totally reasonable to view trump as a reprehensible person and an embarrassment of a president. It is ridiculous to compare him to a “barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.”. If you really believed that, why aren’t you in open revolt?

Unless of course it was proposterous hyperbole so that you could excuse advocating extreme undemocratic measures that would set a terrible precedent.

For the long term health of the republic, better a bad president than a bad precedent.
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:17 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
You said the Dems haven't tried everything within the system against Trump. Right now, your only solutions is to wait til Trump isn't in office anymore. I'm not saying we go French Revolution, I'm saying your solution isn't helpful at all.
It's politics in a democracy. I didn't think "Win the next election" would be seen as some radical outside the box plan.

And people keep saying "I don't want to go French Revolution" but... if we aren't waiting until the next election what are we doing exactly?

Everybody is "Totally not saying this or that" so much that aren't saying a whole lot.

I'm saying a concentrated political effort to make gains in 2020 and beyond is the only real solution. We need either the Presidency or the Senate, we need to make gains on the state level, and we need more then anything to not lose another seat on SCOTUS.
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:18 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
For the long term health of the republic, better a bad president than a bad precedent.
I like that.

It won't go over well with the "As long as it gets rid of Trump it's a win" crowd, but I like it.
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:20 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Hard to determine which Everett was more creative, father or son. I've read more of the sons works, tbh.
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:21 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
BTW if Trump is re-elected in 2020, the odds of one of his political opponents winding up in prison by the end of his second term is about... 1 in 10 I'd say.
Maybe they will be arrested for sexual assault or something. That's more likely than Trump ordering or influencing their imprisonment.
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:39 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It's politics in a democracy. I didn't think "Win the next election" would be seen as some radical outside the box plan.

And people keep saying "I don't want to go French Revolution" but... if we aren't waiting until the next election what are we doing exactly?

Everybody is "Totally not saying this or that" so much that aren't saying a whole lot.

I'm saying a concentrated political effort to make gains in 2020 and beyond is the only real solution. We need either the Presidency or the Senate, we need to make gains on the state level, and we need more then anything to not lose another seat on SCOTUS.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought you brought up the whole guillotine thing. Anyway, if your advice is "do what you're already doing" after you say "you aren't trying everything possible against Trump", that's neither outside the box, nor consistent with your position.
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:56 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
We need to win some elections.
What level of gerrymandering would you need to agree that winning elections is no longer a viable option? Entirely hypothetically, of course.
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Old 11th July 2019, 11:23 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Quote:
The time for the "let's be civilized" speech is before the barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.
It is totally reasonable to view trump as a reprehensible person and an embarrassment of a president. It is ridiculous to compare him to a “barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.”.
Of course Trump is nothing like a barbarian horde...

The barbarians would have at least been honest about what they were doing.

And they'd probably be better at their job than Trump.
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Old 11th July 2019, 11:44 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
It is totally reasonable to view trump as a reprehensible person and an embarrassment of a president. It is ridiculous to compare him to a “barbarian horde is burning your city and chopping you to pieces.”. If you really believed that, why aren’t you in open revolt?

Unless of course it was proposterous hyperbole so that you could excuse advocating extreme undemocratic measures that would set a terrible precedent.

For the long term health of the republic, better a bad president than a bad precedent.
The metaphor was meant to express the futility of handwringing "we don't want to start trouble" speeches when the trouble is already underway. I could as well have used "closing the barn door after the horses already ran away" but I knew that would trigger five pages of wrangling over whether horses stay in barns and whether they can open a door. I was not suggesting the Republicans are currently an attacking barbarian horde. Had I used the barn metaphor I wouldn't have been suggesting they were horses, either.
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Old 11th July 2019, 11:47 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
The metaphor was meant to express the futility of handwringing "we don't want to start trouble" speeches when the trouble is already underway. I could as well have used "closing the barn door after the horses already ran away" but I knew that would trigger five pages of wrangling over whether horses stay in barns and whether they can open a door. I was not suggesting the Republicans are currently an attacking barbarian horde. Had I used the barn metaphor I wouldn't have been suggesting they were horses, either.
Why do you hate horses?
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Old 11th July 2019, 11:52 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
The metaphor was meant to express the futility of handwringing "we don't want to start trouble" speeches when the trouble is already underway.
On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that insisting that the trouble has already started, and now is the time to ESCALATE! is a pretty standard tactic in revolutionary rhetoric.

The harder you have to work to convince the public that the time for talk is over and the time for violence is now, the more likely it is that the time for violence has not yet come.
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Old 11th July 2019, 11:59 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that insisting that the trouble has already started, and now is the time to ESCALATE! is a pretty standard tactic in revolutionary rhetoric.

The harder you have to work to convince the public that the time for talk is over and the time for violence is now, the more likely it is that the time for violence has not yet come.
But I'm not saying it's time for violence. I'm just saying it's no longer the time for the Democrats to be any more cooperative and conciliatory than the Republicans are. I think they should employ every tactic the Republicans have. Taking the high road achieves nothing now.
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Old 11th July 2019, 12:01 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
But I'm not saying it's time for violence. I'm just saying it's no longer the time for the Democrats to be any more cooperative and conciliatory than the Republicans are. I think they should employ every tactic the Republicans have. Taking the high road achieves nothing now.
Agreed. The whole thought process of 'don't do what the Republicans are doing, or the Republicans will do it, too!' just doesn't compute to me.
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Old 11th July 2019, 12:03 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought you brought up the whole guillotine thing. Anyway, if your advice is "do what you're already doing" after you say "you aren't trying everything possible against Trump", that's neither outside the box, nor consistent with your position.
No by rejecting everything that is within the system, the metaphorical guillotine is all that's left, but people want to dance around that.

Our "in the system" options are:

1. Use political power, which has been rejected because the other side hold the power / a majority in all the places that it matters.

2. Gain political power, which has been rejected by the people in power have rigged the system.

If those two things are off the table, what is on the table that isn't revolutionary?
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Old 11th July 2019, 12:04 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
But I'm not saying it's time for violence. I'm just saying it's no longer the time for the Democrats to be any more cooperative and conciliatory than the Republicans are. I think they should employ every tactic the Republicans have. Taking the high road achieves nothing now.
Ah, gotcha. Fair enough. See you at the polls!
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Old 11th July 2019, 12:11 PM   #77
wareyin
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
No by rejecting everything that is within the system, the metaphorical guillotine is all that's left, but people want to dance around that.

Our "in the system" options are:

1. Use political power, which has been rejected because the other side hold the power / a majority in all the places that it matters.

2. Gain political power, which has been rejected by the people in power have rigged the system.

If those two things are off the table, what is on the table that isn't revolutionary?
I don't know, you're the one who said there was something left on the table that the Democrats aren't trying/doing. To stay within your framework:

1: How do you propose Democrats use political power, given that they do not hold the Senate?

2: How do you propose the Democrats gain political power in order to use it against Trump, given that gaining that political power would almost surely also put a Democrat in the Presidency as well?
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Old 11th July 2019, 12:13 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
I don't know, you're the one who said there was something left on the table that the Democrats aren't trying/doing. To stay within your framework:
I'm very well within my framework, thank you.

I haven't rejected "Winning more elections." Other people have because the Republican "don't play fair."
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Old 11th July 2019, 12:23 PM   #79
wareyin
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I haven't rejected "Winning more elections." Other people have because the Republican "don't play fair."
How many elections do we have before 2020?

Given the seats in play, if the Democrats win the Senate, that will be more of a blue wave than last time. Such a wave would wash Trump out of office. Also, do you seriously think they aren't trying to win elections?
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Old 11th July 2019, 12:35 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
How many elections do we have before 2020?
I didn't know "We have to wait until 2020" disqualified something as "a win."
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