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3rd August 2022, 01:38 PM | #2281 |
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Right. The much higher cumulative infections in most other countries (US, UK, EU) has combined with vaccination to create fairly strong hybrid immunity so lower deaths from BA.5 but at a steep cost already paid.
Places like AU and NZ getting hit somewhat harder with BA.5. Vaxed but not as much prior infection so more immune escape. Still pretty low IFR rates compared to the variants before Omicron. Here in California, new infections are declining along with positivity rates. BA.4/5 is now 95% of all infections with a tiny bit of prior variants continuing to decline. Nothing new to challenge them. Looking good for the next several months and with luck more. If nothing new shows up in the next few months the odds of a more transmissible variant popping up get much smaller as it's proportional to the number infected worldwide. On another note: Remember this report of pandemic preparedness that came out in late 2019? https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/...ess-pandemics/ USA and UK ranked #1 and 2. ROFLMAO We here in the States continue to imagine outselves as #1 in all things. Not very smart, IMO. |
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3rd August 2022, 06:33 PM | #2282 |
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3rd August 2022, 06:53 PM | #2283 |
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Lack of competing variants is looking good. Eric Topol also notes this.
Quote:
Yes! |
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3rd August 2022, 08:17 PM | #2284 |
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And it needs to be noted that to seriously compete, a new variant would need to be more infectious than BA5, and since 2.75 hasn't, I don't believe we'll see one.
I'm now quite sure this is the end game. There will be minor waves now and then, but not the crippling numbers we've seen so far. Right now, infection totals are dropping fast, as are deaths. I think it's time to crack the champagne and toast the demise of covid! |
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4th August 2022, 03:36 AM | #2285 |
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4th August 2022, 03:01 PM | #2286 |
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It's a combination of immune escape and intrinsic infectiousness. And mutations are random processes. The probability of gene changes is a function of the number infected at any given time. A genetic sequence change that survives from a single infected individual is not uncommon and fully sequencing cases that occur from exposure to one person (index patient) they can often be tracked and isolated from infections that arose elsewhere.
The more infections that are extant at any given time, the higher the probability that a large mutation set will occur that is more fit. "Fitness" is relative to the current state of immunity from prior infections as well as vaccination. As BA.5 peaks and declines from that peak around the World, the probability of a more fit variant will decrease. Also, the more time that goes by as a disease evolves, the more likely the disease will be stuck in a local minimum (sorry for the math term) and is unable to generate mutations that will kick it out of that local minimum. But, unlike T cells, antibody immunity is short lived similar to coronavirus common colds. If a month goes by without some new variant exhibiting higher fitness against the immunity wall BA.5 and its predecessors produced, the more likely it is that this is the end of the pandemic stage and we will enter a longer, lower level of ebb and flow as SARS-CoV-2 joins the other circulating coronaviruses. |
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4th August 2022, 07:19 PM | #2287 |
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UK's ONS report on long covid
Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK: 4 August 2022 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...uk/4august2022 As of 2 July 2022, 5.0% of people who were not in and not looking for paid work were experiencing self-reported long COVID. This was higher than for the other employment statuses: unemployed (3.5%), employed (3.3%), retired (2.9%) and students (1.7%). Lancet Study: Persistence of somatic symptoms after COVID-19 in the Netherlands: an observational cohort study https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...214-4/fulltext |
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4th August 2022, 08:24 PM | #2288 |
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4th August 2022, 08:42 PM | #2289 |
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It's fundamentally a hard problem. Confounders galore and there really is no way adjust for most of them.
What's needed are specific objective measures that correlate to the myriad symptoms. Not a lot to date. But yeah, more research is needed. I think we are at the turning point where research in this area will get more resources as the pandemic winds down. Should know a lot more in the next year. |
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4th August 2022, 09:51 PM | #2290 |
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FWIW, IIRC, the indicators to get that #1 were reasonable. It's just that they didn't account for sabotage leadership and traitorous propaganda. Having a good plan prepared is an excellent part of preparedness ratings, for example. It's just pretty worthless in practice when it's not actually used.
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5th August 2022, 11:30 AM | #2291 |
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Yes, there do seem to be a lot of similarities. The suspicion is that there is a dysfunction in the mitochondria as a result of the viral infection. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7680046/
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5th August 2022, 12:55 PM | #2292 |
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Dear old Warren Tate. I referenced him in my ME/CFS thread a few years back. Warren has been the leading voice in ME research, which is appropriate since it was known as Tapanui 'Flu for a while, and that's just down the road from him.
The whole thing smacks of a medical "god of the gaps" attempt to find an answer in the only place we can't discount. The conclusion gives the game away:
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6th August 2022, 01:34 AM | #2293 |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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6th August 2022, 12:49 PM | #2294 |
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Subvariant of BA.4, BA4.6, is popping up and showing some degree of increase. Less than half the rate of earlier variant increases at similar points in time. Looks like about a 5 to 10% increase per week overall but given the declining net incidence will likely slow the overall prevalence decline in the next month or so. Too soon to tell what its current Rt is. Most likely slight above 1.0. Could produce another, smaller wave a few months from now.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...nt-proportions BA.4.6 has a similar mutation to BA.1.1 so its impact in different countries may depend on what prior waves have been seen. |
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6th August 2022, 03:43 PM | #2295 |
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Speculative.
Quote:
Quote:
Srsly? It's a blog. Written by one Dr. Tracy Tranchitella, who received her naturopathic doctorate degree in 1998 from Southwest College of Naturopathic Medicine. Seems legit. (bolding mine throughout) |
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8th August 2022, 08:09 PM | #2296 |
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If anyone's been keeping watch, covid numbers have fallen off a cliff in the past 10 days, right across the world.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ |
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9th August 2022, 12:36 AM | #2297 |
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I think the current wave in Japan (the 7th) got started a little later than in other parts. Doesn't seem to have peaked here quite yet, but based on the effective reproduction number, it should peak soon. Compared to the previous wave, active cases are close to 2 million, whereas they never reached 1 million in the last wave. Nevertheless, deaths still seem to be lower than in the last wave.
It continues a trend of higher infectivity, but lower mortality. https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/japan Apparently Our World in Data stopped updating the positivity rate of Covid tests as of June 23rd, 2022. That's too bad. My back of the envelope calculation from the Toyo Keizai data is that over 80% of the Covid tests have been positive in the last 10 days in Japan. 80%. Which means most people testing are testing positive. |
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11th August 2022, 09:42 AM | #2298 |
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Daily new cases in the UK according to the ZOE Covid Symptom study have been dropping, but the rate of decline has levelled off in the last couple of days. Have to wait and see if they stay level, drop or go up again.
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11th August 2022, 09:49 AM | #2299 |
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11th August 2022, 03:57 PM | #2300 |
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12th August 2022, 06:26 PM | #2301 |
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Bob Wachter
Best news: no nasty new variant poised to take place of BA.5 (tho BA.4.6 bears watching). If this holds: 1) we should enjoy a Fall lull; & 2) new BA.5-specific booster (rolling out in Sept.) will work better than if it was confronting a new foe. Enjoy your end-of-summer! https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/stat...34980706164736 |
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14th August 2022, 07:20 AM | #2302 |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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15th August 2022, 03:25 PM | #2303 |
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New paper in Cell Reports Medicine showing BCG has high efficacy against Covid-19 from vaccination 2 to 3 years earlier. Small "N" but strong efficacy hence low p values. Population tested had type I diabetes.
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-me...22)00271-3.pdf This DBRCT was tacked on to a 5 year, DBRCT study of BCG vaccinations against a wide range of disease. When Covid-19 popped up in 2020, they added PCR and antibody tests to the group they were following. BCG vaccinations were highly effective against Coivd-19. Summary:
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15th August 2022, 04:10 PM | #2304 |
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Interesting. Note that BCG, which I think is supposed to be for tuberculosis, is commonly given in Japan. Could this possibly be a reason why mortality here was about 1/10th of that in North America and Europe?
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15th August 2022, 04:21 PM | #2305 |
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15th August 2022, 05:45 PM | #2306 |
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And meanwhile in Shanghai, just published 14 hours ago:
Shanghai Covid: Ikea shoppers flee attempt to lock down store
Quote:
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15th August 2022, 05:53 PM | #2307 |
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Wow. This article is amazing. All I knew was that it was for tuberculosis, but check this out:
Quote:
Why on earth isn't this vaccine given universally? |
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15th August 2022, 05:59 PM | #2308 |
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Really, China's whack-a-mole is only possible because everyone has a color coded smart phone needed to enter malls, theaters, transportation. A side effect is that they know exactly where everyone has been. They will be traced, quarantined, and repeatedly tested. I'm actually surprised they have been largely able to contain Omicron with the large land borders and such. But they have and use tools that enable the required control. But how long can they keep this up? It's got to be wearing them down and seems to have a cost that will never end.
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15th August 2022, 06:02 PM | #2309 |
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15th August 2022, 08:39 PM | #2310 |
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BCG is the most common TB vaccine given in Russia and eastern former Soviet states. How did those areas of the world fare? (Both of my kids, born in Ukraine, had BCG.)
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15th August 2022, 08:55 PM | #2311 |
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The study has links to other studies that have looked into BCG with mixed results. Might be some info on these countries.
What was unique to this study is the DBRCT aspect, that 3 shots were given 2 years before Covid-19 because they were interested to see if this would produce strong, general, response to a range of respiratory diseases. There are many different BCG strains. They picked a particular strain of BCG, used in Japan, that elicits a strong immune response. This was done in the USA because there is little TB extant and virtually no BCG vaccination in the population. The intent was to see if this protocol would reduce disease, not Covid-19 per se. Covid-19 just happened to come along at an opportune time, so they added a side study. IT's a fascinating study and well worth looking at the various graphs and heat maps. |
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15th August 2022, 09:03 PM | #2312 |
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Interesting. Thanks for explaining.
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16th August 2022, 09:00 AM | #2313 |
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East Europe countries have one of the worst case numbers and mortality in the world.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...VK~POL~DEU~USA |
16th August 2022, 11:10 AM | #2314 |
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Religion and sex are powerplays. Manipulate the people for the money they pay. Selling skin, selling God The numbers look the same on their credit cards. |
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16th August 2022, 12:52 PM | #2315 |
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Strains of BCG vary considerably around the World. Also, they were rolled out at different times. Peru, for instance rolled out BCG in 1962 but has the highest Covid-19 IFR in the world at .6%. However, few people 60 y/o or older were BCG vaccinated.
There's quite a lot of country variation in efficacy against even TB which is what BCG is for. The Cell study wasn't targeting TB or Covid-19 (which didn't exist at the time) but general lung infections and the study planned to evaluate multiple (3 or more), BCG vaccinations against general lung diseases for adults with type I diabetes over 5 years. When Covid-19 showed up a few years after the study start, they extended the study to include Covid-19 infections with both PCR and antibody tests on their study groups. The BCG vaccine chosen to study in the USA is the one used in Japan and was chosen because it elicited high antibody responses. That it's point efficacy against Covid-19 was >90% was clearly a surprise. However, the N was small so the CI spread is large and it may even be due to randomness. There is about a 1% chance actual C19 efficacy is 30% or less according to the paper. This will obviously spur a lot of research including analysis of prior BCG type and vaccination history. An obvious line of research is looking at the impact of IFR/age and the year vaccinations were started along with the specific strain of BCG. Might be a wild goose chase, might be game changer. Especially if it also reduces general lung disease too which seems quite possible given the study's non-covid results to date. Here's a public database on Worldwide BCG usage: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3062527/ |
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17th August 2022, 01:14 AM | #2316 |
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We'll see I guess. Of course, there's plenty of reasons to be cautious, including the small study population and the fact that it's only one study.
Still, 99% is pretty darn good. 95% confidence is the standard scientific threshold for significance, and 99% is is 80% higher than that. Just as long as there's no funny business going on behind the scenes. (Another reason for caution. It's unfortunate that we also have to be on our guard these days for the possibility of outright fraud.) |
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19th August 2022, 04:33 PM | #2317 |
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My wife and I have laughed about the BCG a few times.
It was given at school, and I don't recall anyone not getting it, or even questioning it. Nowadays it couldn't be done. That was 1973 and only 23 years after a personage as great as Orwell died of the disease, so it was taken seriously. I went to an all-boys school, where we had a neat tradition on BCG day. After vaccination, which took place in the 4th form, (Year 9/8th Grade) the boys from the year above us went round punching everyone who'd been vaccinated on the injection site. I hope that activated the vaccine even more, because while the injection didn't hurt, being punched on the arm 50 times sure did. Be sure I'm following that research with interest. |
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19th August 2022, 06:37 PM | #2318 |
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That is a very good question because early on in 2020 there was discussion about BCG drug used for tuberculosis (Even before Convalescent plasma) as a possibility to treat Covid patients. I never heard about it again soon after that, Remdesiver, Moderna and Phizer became the main names thrown out there afterwards.
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20th August 2022, 06:58 PM | #2319 |
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Theraputics provide significant benefits to the vaccinated. Previous data was relative to unvaccinated.
Oral Nirmatrelvir and Ritonavir in Non-hospitalized Vaccinated Patients with Covid-19 https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance...iac673/6672670
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20th August 2022, 08:12 PM | #2320 |
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Excess deaths in UK.
Recently the Telegraph had a piece on the increase in excess deaths well beyond that ascribed to Covid.
Here's a piece in the Spectator exploring different possibilities including increasing wait times for hospital admission. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...excess-deaths- Twitter thead dissing The Telegaph for blaming lockdown when that ended a year ago: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/sta...27181637472256 It's quite odd. No similar effect seen in the USA's excess death charts. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm |
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