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Tags Coronavirus

View Poll Results: Who do you blame?
Trump. He should have at least done a PSA encouraging people to get vaccinated. 42 37.84%
Right wing media for almost embracing an anti-vax sentiment 67 60.36%
Republican Governors particularly Desantis and Abbott 50 45.05%
Internet know it alls that don't actually. 30 27.03%
The Republican party for trying to be as crazy as Trump. 52 46.85%
Joe Biden for not being persuasive enough 3 2.70%
The Democrats because shouldn't we blame them? 3 2.70%
The public for being just too stupid. 59 53.15%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 111. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 24th August 2021, 04:25 PM   #201
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
The country is now averaging 150,000+ new cases and 1,000 deaths per day from Covid.

But thank God I've got mah freeeeeeeedoms from wearing a mask!
WHat makes me mad is these idiots are making the job of those of us have concerns about the constant erosion of individual liberties on the altar of "The Public Good" look foolish.
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Old 26th August 2021, 10:42 AM   #202
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Originally Posted by Purple Pangolin View Post
Evolution.
This.
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Old 26th August 2021, 10:44 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Where's the option for the Delta variant?
That option doesn't conform to the "virus as a political tool" narrative.
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Old 26th August 2021, 11:00 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I'm actually having this exact issue at work right now: how you break down a data set is what controls the summaries. If you insist on splitting your data into particular categories then averaging by those categories you will get entirely different numbers than if you had split them into different categories and gotten averages by those. How you look at the data affects the results.

Particularly when the thing being examined isn't actually controlled by the categorization you're doing. The virus doesn't care about the state borders, so breaking down virus data by states is a purely artificial human convenience for summarization--that is abstraction from reality. (Except for Hawaii, obviously.)

This all looks to me like people taking the same data and doing pivot tables on different fields to see what they can prove from it.
Yep.
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Old 26th August 2021, 02:12 PM   #205
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I didn't see this earlier so I didn't respond to it

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I'm actually having this exact issue at work right now: how you break down a data set is what controls the summaries. If you insist on splitting your data into particular categories then averaging by those categories you will get entirely different numbers than if you had split them into different categories and gotten averages by those. How you look at the data affects the results.

Particularly when the thing being examined isn't actually controlled by the categorization you're doing. The virus doesn't care about the state borders, so breaking down virus data by states is a purely artificial human convenience for summarization--that is abstraction from reality. (Except for Hawaii, obviously.)

This all looks to me like people taking the same data and doing pivot tables on different fields to see what they can prove from it.
This is the mistake you are making. The data has nothing whatsoever to do with the virus itself.

The data is about politics, and about the choices people are making with respect to getting vaccinated. Whether you like it or not, it is a verifiable, observable fact that those choices are being effected by their political leanings, which are in turn influenced by what they are being told by the politicians they either agree with or vote for, as well as the media they consume.
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Old 26th August 2021, 02:18 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
The Republican leaders are not hypnotizing their rabble base. The people are supporting what they believe/want to hear. That's why I don't blame the mouthpieces so much as the earpieces. You have to willingly buy into the party line.
Yeah, the earpieces are only following orders.
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Old 26th August 2021, 02:39 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post

This is the mistake you are making. The data has nothing whatsoever to do with the virus itself.

The data is about politics, and about the choices people are making with respect to getting vaccinated. Whether you like it or not, it is a verifiable, observable fact that those choices are being effected by their political leanings, which are in turn influenced by what they are being told by the politicians they either agree with or vote for, as well as the media they consume.
I didn't say it wasn't. My objection is to the assumption that the categorization within the set/s of data is necessarily meaningful. I live in a liberal city in a conservative state, so depending on which level of categorization you're looking at you could put me as a data point in either of two completely opposite sets. I also live immediately adjacent to my state's border. There is not a huge cultural/political shift when one crosses that border. And yet because it's an arbitrary line that's convenient for breaking down data it is so used, whether it's actually meaningful in the least relative to the questions being asked.
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Old 26th August 2021, 04:49 PM   #208
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I didn't say it wasn't. My objection is to the assumption that the categorization within the set/s of data is necessarily meaningful. I live in a liberal city in a conservative state, so depending on which level of categorization you're looking at you could put me as a data point in either of two completely opposite sets. I also live immediately adjacent to my state's border. There is not a huge cultural/political shift when one crosses that border. And yet because it's an arbitrary line that's convenient for breaking down data it is so used, whether it's actually meaningful in the least relative to the questions being asked.
You will always get spurious "whataboutism" arguments from the deniers... "well what about this state, or what about that state". The point here is that statistics deal with trends, not absolutes. You can still get a very good idea of the trend, and those states that are red trend toward the lower end of the vaccination rates.

Furthermore, its not just binary... it is easy to see that the trend is the deeper they are red, the lower the vaccination rate, the deeper they are blue, the higher the vaccination rate. The 0.1% of edge cases do not invalidate the data for the other 99.9%. Sorry, but it just doesn't.

But if you need to see it graphically illustrated....



...and if you don't like State borders, how about more refined County borders instead?



Here - you can play around with that map and the following "US Covid vaccinations by county" interactive the maps all you like.

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/...-vaccinations/

If your mind is not already closed and bolted shut (like one or two others here I could mention) you will come to the same conclusions I have.
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Old 26th August 2021, 06:04 PM   #209
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Here - you can play around with that map and the following "US Covid vaccinations by county" interactive the maps all you like.

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/...-vaccinations/
Very cool.
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Old 26th August 2021, 06:46 PM   #210
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Very cool.
Indeed it is

You can go through county by county, and compare the vaccination rate in each county with the county political map and see that in almost every case, counties with low vaccination rates are red - and counties with high vaccination rates are blue... the lower the rate, the deeper the red; the higher the rate the deeper the blue.

But even more importantly, you can clearly see that even in red counties within blue states, the vaccination rates are lower, while in the surrounding blue counties they are higher. And it works in reverse as well.

This completely demolishes the argument that vaccination rates are not driven by political bias and that this is not reflected in the politics of the individual states.
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Old 26th August 2021, 07:28 PM   #211
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Indeed it is

You can go through county by county, and compare the vaccination rate in each county with the county political map and see that in almost every case, counties with low vaccination rates are red - and counties with high vaccination rates are blue... the lower the rate, the deeper the red; the higher the rate the deeper the blue.

But even more importantly, you can clearly see that even in red counties within blue states, the vaccination rates are lower, while in the surrounding blue counties they are higher. And it works in reverse as well.

This completely demolishes the argument that vaccination rates are not driven by political bias and that this is not reflected in the politics of the individual states.
It replicates the political maps at a very granular level. Anyone who says that politics isnt at play are lying.
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Old 26th August 2021, 10:03 PM   #212
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
It replicates the political maps at a very granular level. Anyone who says that politics isnt at play are lying.
Indeed... there are only 50 states, but there are over 3000 counties, parishes and similar political districts in the US. When you get down to that level of refinement (or granularity as you call it) and you still see the direct correlation that you see at state level, then that validates the analysis at state level.
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Old 27th August 2021, 05:55 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
This completely demolishes the argument that vaccination rates are not driven by political bias and that this is not reflected in the politics of the individual states.
Well, to be fair, it only means there is a definite link between the two. A ďthird variableĒ option is also viable: for example, perhaps a lower education level leads to both a tendency towards anti-vax and Republican leanings.

But I place that as a lower probability, and/or a self-reinforcing cycle.


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Old 27th August 2021, 06:11 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
You will always get spurious "whataboutism" arguments from the deniers... "well what about this state, or what about that state".
Not something I said; I am not "a denier"; you are conflating what I said with something else.

Quote:
The point here is that statistics deal with trends, not absolutes. You can still get a very good idea of the trend, and those states that are red trend toward the lower end of the vaccination rates.
I agree. I'm pointing out that how you slice the data is what controls the apparent trends. It could lead to incorrect analysis. Geographical breakdowns are dangerous when the thing being studied isn't inherently tied to geography.

Quote:
Furthermore, its not just binary... it is easy to see that the trend is the deeper they are red, the lower the vaccination rate, the deeper they are blue, the higher the vaccination rate. The 0.1% of edge cases do not invalidate the data for the other 99.9%. Sorry, but it just doesn't.
Again, I'm not disagreeing with the premise that Republicans are more unvaccinated/anti-vax than Democrats. I'm pointing out that geographical breakdowns are questionable methods to use to prove that. If you wanted to prove a radiation exposure event occurred then a geographic breakdown would be great--there would be more cases towards the center of the event and the places downwind from it.

Quote:
But if you need to see it graphically illustrated....
I don't, that's my point!

Quote:
...and if you don't like State borders, how about more refined County borders instead?
Again, my point: looking at it by state and looking at it by county gives the exact opposite result for where I am. If you broke it down further by ZIP code the results would flip yet again. By neighborhood likely it would flip a fourth time!

People live where they live based more on their financial circumstances than their political views. Very few people up and move to a particular county and state because of the electoral history of the area.

Quote:
Here - you can play around with that map and the following "US Covid vaccinations by county" interactive the maps all you like.
Yes, I know. I can play around with datasets and get all sorts of very convincing and contradictory results based on the chosen breakdowns. It's actually what I do for a living. Usually it's by time rather than geography-- the same collection of data points viewed by month reveals one trend, viewed by week reveals another. Breaking it down by characteristic A shows one thing, by B shows the opposite. What's necessary to get to proper conclusions is to confine the breakdowns to things that are directly related to the items being studied.

I could, for instance, break down these three million hospital visits by the attending doctor's middle initial and conclude that physicians with the middle initials B, E, and H have better patient satisfaction rates. Should we then boost physician recruitment based on their middle initials? Of course not: there is no causal link between the chosen breakdown and the event its measuring, even if the data appears to supports it.

Quote:
If your mind is not already closed and bolted shut (like one or two others here I could mention) you will come to the same conclusions I have.
Again you mistake me. I do not disagree that it's more likely to be Republicans who are unvaccinated and anti-vaccination. I am merely objecting to the use of geographic breakdowns as being inarguably accurate means to prove it. A far more reliable means would be to survey the patients themselves for their political party affiliation and then total up the cases and break them down by reported politics, not assumed politics based on where someone lives. As I pointed out above, the single data point that is me falls into completely different categories depending on which geographic granularity you choose to look at. I am statistically everything from a conservative white Republican woman to a liberal black Democratic man, depending on which level you bucket my location into.
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Old 27th August 2021, 09:30 AM   #215
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
Indeed it is

You can go through county by county, and compare the vaccination rate in each county with the county political map and see that in almost every case, counties with low vaccination rates are red - and counties with high vaccination rates are blue... the lower the rate, the deeper the red; the higher the rate the deeper the blue.

But even more importantly, you can clearly see that even in red counties within blue states, the vaccination rates are lower, while in the surrounding blue counties they are higher. And it works in reverse as well.

This completely demolishes the argument that vaccination rates are not driven by political bias and that this is not reflected in the politics of the individual states.
I think you're misattributing cause. Yes, there is clearly a correlation. But there's also a clear correlation with urbanity vs rurality. In fact, there's a pretty strong correlation between political leaning and the degree of urbanity.

You're attributing lower vaccination rates to political ideology, based on correlation. Don't you think it's at least as likely that vaccinations are lower in more rural areas for reasons that correlate with, but aren't causal to, political leaning?

Consider for example, that in many rural areas, people aren't as close to each other physically, are more able to either individually or even communally isolate. Additionally, the availability of vaccines and the ease of access to vaccines is likely to be lower in more rural areas.

I agree that there's a correlation with partisanship; I don't agree that partisanship is the largest causal factor. I don't think it's reasonable to assume malicious belief on the part of unvaccinated people as a whole.
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Old 27th August 2021, 09:31 AM   #216
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
It replicates the political maps at a very granular level. Anyone who says that politics isnt at play are lying.
Alternatively, it's entirely possible for an underlying cause to be correlated with both vaccination level AND political leaning. Assuming that politics is the causal reason is unwarranted and poor logic. Correlated? Definitely. Causal? I am not convinced.
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Old 27th August 2021, 09:34 AM   #217
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Also, with respect to the question asked in the OP... even some vaccinated people are getting the Delta variant.

Some portion of the rise in case rates is attributable to mother nature being a bitch and the virus mutating to a new variant. I don't think that evolution has a political bias
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Old 27th August 2021, 10:32 AM   #218
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Alternatively, it's entirely possible for an underlying cause to be correlated with both vaccination level AND political leaning. Assuming that politics is the causal reason is unwarranted and poor logic. Correlated? Definitely. Causal? I am not convinced.
I'm 100% convinced and I think your post is disingenuous. It is definitely causal.

Does anyone really believe that if the Republican party and their version of Pravda (FOX) had come out fully backing vaccinations that we'd have a map that would look anything like this?
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Old 27th August 2021, 10:39 AM   #219
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Also, with respect to the question asked in the OP... even some vaccinated people are getting the Delta variant.

Some portion of the rise in case rates is attributable to mother nature being a bitch and the virus mutating to a new variant. I don't think that evolution has a political bias
Mother nature might be a bitch but so what? More than 95% of the population contracting the virus are unvaccinated and 99% of the ICU beds with COVID patients are unvaccinated and 99% of those dying are unvaccinated.

What you're demonstrating is willful dishonesty.
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Old 27th August 2021, 10:47 AM   #220
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'm 100% convinced and I think your post is disingenuous. It is definitely causal.

Does anyone really believe that if the Republican party and their version of Pravda (FOX) had come out fully backing vaccinations that we'd have a map that would look anything like this?
Yes, I do. I think the magnitude of the differences in vaccination rates would be lessened, but I think that the overall pattern would likely be consistent.

At the very least, people in more rural areas have less accessible vaccinations. They have to travel farther in order to see a doctor or pharmacist, with means that travel is a barrier to vaccination. Additionally, more rural areas tend to be lower income areas, which compounds the travel barrier - there is rarely any sort of public transportation, and many rural residents don't have particularly flexible work schedules. The inability to afford gas for travel to get a vaccine, combined with not having the time during business hours to engage in that travel, is something that shouldn't be overlooked.

The travel and income barrier to health care with respect to rural residents is a known and observable element. Income is a barrier in urban areas too, where the in ability to take time off from work during provider office hours frequently prevents lower income people from being able to access care.

That rurality also correlates with political preference. It's not surprising that people in more rural areas tend to lean right. Over the last couple of decades, the focus of the Democratic party when it comes to policy endeavors has been almost exclusively on urban areas. There's a tendency for democratic politicians, as well as non-politician democratic supporters to denigrate rural residents, to treat them as if they don't matter and are less-than-human. Is it any wonder that people who get treated like offal by the left might feel more alignment with the right?

So, as I said, political leaning is correlated, but not causal. As TM pointed out, using geographic boundaries as an arbitrary categorization for both vaccination and political persuasion is iffy.

I would suggest that a comparison of vaccination rates by 1) income
and 2) travel distance to receive vaccination would both indicate high levels of correlation. Even within a blue county, I strongly suspect you will see higher levels of vaccination among more affluent people, and lower levels among poorer people - regardless of their political preference.
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Old 27th August 2021, 10:48 AM   #221
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Mother nature might be a bitch but so what? More than 95% of the population contracting the virus are unvaccinated and 99% of the ICU beds with COVID patients are unvaccinated and 99% of those dying are unvaccinated.

What you're demonstrating is willful dishonesty.
"I disagree with you so you're a liar" is not a reasonable argumentative approach.
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Old 27th August 2021, 10:52 AM   #222
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Yes, I do. I think the magnitude of the differences in vaccination rates would be lessened, but I think that the overall pattern would likely be consistent.

At the very least, people in more rural areas have less accessible vaccinations. They have to travel farther in order to see a doctor or pharmacist, with means that travel is a barrier to vaccination. Additionally, more rural areas tend to be lower income areas, which compounds the travel barrier - there is rarely any sort of public transportation, and many rural residents don't have particularly flexible work schedules. The inability to afford gas for travel to get a vaccine, combined with not having the time during business hours to engage in that travel, is something that shouldn't be overlooked.

The travel and income barrier to health care with respect to rural residents is a known and observable element. Income is a barrier in urban areas too, where the in ability to take time off from work during provider office hours frequently prevents lower income people from being able to access care.

That rurality also correlates with political preference. It's not surprising that people in more rural areas tend to lean right. Over the last couple of decades, the focus of the Democratic party when it comes to policy endeavors has been almost exclusively on urban areas. There's a tendency for democratic politicians, as well as non-politician democratic supporters to denigrate rural residents, to treat them as if they don't matter and are less-than-human. Is it any wonder that people who get treated like offal by the left might feel more alignment with the right?

So, as I said, political leaning is correlated, but not causal. As TM pointed out, using geographic boundaries as an arbitrary categorization for both vaccination and political persuasion is iffy.

I would suggest that a comparison of vaccination rates by 1) income
and 2) travel distance to receive vaccination would both indicate high levels of correlation. Even within a blue county, I strongly suspect you will see higher levels of vaccination among more affluent people, and lower levels among poorer people - regardless of their political preference.
Total nonsense.

ETA: This isn't horse and buggy days. People who live on farms aren't living in the 1800's; they have trucks/cars. Getting to a pharmacy or a vaccination center isn't that difficult and the vaccine is readily available upon walk ins. If they aren't vaccinated by now, it's because they choose not to be.

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Old 27th August 2021, 11:03 AM   #223
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Total nonsense.

ETA: This isn't horse and buggy days. People who live on farms aren't living in the 1800's; they have trucks/cars. Getting to a pharmacy or a vaccination center isn't that difficult and the vaccine is readily available upon walk ins. If they aren't vaccinated by now, it's because they choose not to be.
Additionally, the availability of vaccines was determined by the distribution paths. In my state, rural areas got more vaccine doses than the urban ones to begin with-- it was something of a scandal, actually, since the urban areas are more populous.
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Old 27th August 2021, 11:14 AM   #224
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Yes, I do. I think the magnitude of the differences in vaccination rates would be lessened, but I think that the overall pattern would likely be consistent.

At the very least, people in more rural areas have less accessible vaccinations. They have to travel farther in order to see a doctor or pharmacist, with means that travel is a barrier to vaccination. Additionally, more rural areas tend to be lower income areas, which compounds the travel barrier - there is rarely any sort of public transportation, and many rural residents don't have particularly flexible work schedules. The inability to afford gas for travel to get a vaccine, combined with not having the time during business hours to engage in that travel, is something that shouldn't be overlooked.

The travel and income barrier to health care with respect to rural residents is a known and observable element. Income is a barrier in urban areas too, where the in ability to take time off from work during provider office hours frequently prevents lower income people from being able to access care.

That rurality also correlates with political preference. It's not surprising that people in more rural areas tend to lean right. Over the last couple of decades, the focus of the Democratic party when it comes to policy endeavors has been almost exclusively on urban areas. There's a tendency for democratic politicians, as well as non-politician democratic supporters to denigrate rural residents, to treat them as if they don't matter and are less-than-human. Is it any wonder that people who get treated like offal by the left might feel more alignment with the right?

So, as I said, political leaning is correlated, but not causal. As TM pointed out, using geographic boundaries as an arbitrary categorization for both vaccination and political persuasion is iffy.

I would suggest that a comparison of vaccination rates by 1) income
and 2) travel distance to receive vaccination would both indicate high levels of correlation. Even within a blue county, I strongly suspect you will see higher levels of vaccination among more affluent people, and lower levels among poorer people - regardless of their political preference.
Again you're being dishonest with yourself.

Access to the vaccine has not been a factor. The vaccine is free. 83% of the US population lives in urban America. More than 95% live within 35 miles of a city with a population greater than 25,000 people. Almost every small town in America has a pharmacy. Most rural people make weekly or bi-weekly visits to Walmart etc. If these people had as much initiative to get the vaccine as they do to get groceries at Safeway or Walmart there wouldn't be an issue.

Sure, it's possible that inconvenience plays a tiny factor. But politics clearly is the overwhelming factor. And suggesting otherwise is just looking for an excuse.
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Old 27th August 2021, 11:19 AM   #225
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Again you're being dishonest with yourself.

Access to the vaccine has not been a factor. The vaccine is free. 83% of the US population lives in urban America. More than 95% live within 35 miles of a city with a population greater than 25,000 people. Almost every small town in America has a pharmacy. Most rural people make weekly or bi-weekly visits to Walmart etc. If these people had as much initiative to get the vaccine as they do to get groceries at Safeway or Walmart there wouldn't be an issue.

Sure, it's possible that inconvenience plays a tiny factor. But politics clearly is the overwhelming factor. And suggesting otherwise is just looking for an excuse.
They want to blame everything and everyone other than where the majority of the blame lies: on the Trump led GOP for politicizing it from day one.
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Old 27th August 2021, 11:23 AM   #226
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Old 27th August 2021, 02:25 PM   #227
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Not something I said; I am not "a denier"; you are conflating what I said with something else.

I agree. I'm pointing out that how you slice the data is what controls the apparent trends. It could lead to incorrect analysis. Geographical breakdowns are dangerous when the thing being studied isn't inherently tied to geography.

Again, I'm not disagreeing with the premise that Republicans are more unvaccinated/anti-vax than Democrats. I'm pointing out that geographical breakdowns are questionable methods to use to prove that. If you wanted to prove a radiation exposure event occurred then a geographic breakdown would be great--there would be more cases towards the center of the event and the places downwind from it.

I don't, that's my point!

Again, my point: looking at it by state and looking at it by county gives the exact opposite result for where I am. If you broke it down further by ZIP code the results would flip yet again. By neighborhood likely it would flip a fourth time!

People live where they live based more on their financial circumstances than their political views. Very few people up and move to a particular county and state because of the electoral history of the area.

Yes, I know. I can play around with datasets and get all sorts of very convincing and contradictory results based on the chosen breakdowns. It's actually what I do for a living. Usually it's by time rather than geography-- the same collection of data points viewed by month reveals one trend, viewed by week reveals another. Breaking it down by characteristic A shows one thing, by B shows the opposite. What's necessary to get to proper conclusions is to confine the breakdowns to things that are directly related to the items being studied.

I could, for instance, break down these three million hospital visits by the attending doctor's middle initial and conclude that physicians with the middle initials B, E, and H have better patient satisfaction rates. Should we then boost physician recruitment based on their middle initials? Of course not: there is no causal link between the chosen breakdown and the event its measuring, even if the data appears to supports it.

Again you mistake me. I do not disagree that it's more likely to be Republicans who are unvaccinated and anti-vaccination. I am merely objecting to the use of geographic breakdowns as being inarguably accurate means to prove it. A far more reliable means would be to survey the patients themselves for their political party affiliation and then total up the cases and break them down by reported politics, not assumed politics based on where someone lives. As I pointed out above, the single data point that is me falls into completely different categories depending on which geographic granularity you choose to look at. I am statistically everything from a conservative white Republican woman to a liberal black Democratic man, depending on which level you bucket my location into.

You misunderstand.

Geographical correlations aren't the proof... they are the result!
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Old 27th August 2021, 02:26 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
I think you're misattributing cause. Yes, there is clearly a correlation. But there's also a clear correlation with urbanity vs rurality. In fact, there's a pretty strong correlation between political leaning and the degree of urbanity.

You're attributing lower vaccination rates to political ideology, based on correlation. Don't you think it's at least as likely that vaccinations are lower in more rural areas for reasons that correlate with, but aren't causal to, political leaning?

Consider for example, that in many rural areas, people aren't as close to each other physically, are more able to either individually or even communally isolate. Additionally, the availability of vaccines and the ease of access to vaccines is likely to be lower in more rural areas.

I agree that there's a correlation with partisanship; I don't agree that partisanship is the largest causal factor. I don't think it's reasonable to assume malicious belief on the part of unvaccinated people as a whole.
Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Alternatively, it's entirely possible for an underlying cause to be correlated with both vaccination level AND political leaning. Assuming that politics is the causal reason is unwarranted and poor logic. Correlated? Definitely. Causal? I am not convinced.

Then you are kidding yourself. Partisanship is the very obvious major driver....
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Old 27th August 2021, 02:32 PM   #229
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
"I disagree with you so you're a liar" is not a reasonable argumentative approach.
He was disagreeing with you because you are wrong.
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Old 27th August 2021, 02:59 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Yes, I do. I think the magnitude of the differences in vaccination rates would be lessened, but I think that the overall pattern would likely be consistent.
There is simply, no way this is be true.

If Trump had not politicised this right from the outset; if both Houses of Congress had taken a bipartisan stand and made it clear when vaccines became available; that everyone should get vaccinated, if you didn't have DeSantis and other idiot politicians like that governor from Texas fighting against mask mandates in businesses and schools, if all the media from both extremes of the political spectrum were giving out the same "get vaccinated" messaging, the vaccination maps would not look ANYTHING like they do now, and the vaccination programs would have much more difficulty keeping up with demand

Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
At the very least, people in more rural areas have less accessible vaccinations. They have to travel farther in order to see a doctor or pharmacist, with means that travel is a barrier to vaccination. Additionally, more rural areas tend to be lower income areas, which compounds the travel barrier - there is rarely any sort of public transportation, and many rural residents don't have particularly flexible work schedules. The inability to afford gas for travel to get a vaccine, combined with not having the time during business hours to engage in that travel, is something that shouldn't be overlooked.

The travel and income barrier to health care with respect to rural residents is a known and observable element. Income is a barrier in urban areas too, where the in ability to take time off from work during provider office hours frequently prevents lower income people from being able to access care.

That rurality also correlates with political preference. It's not surprising that people in more rural areas tend to lean right. Over the last couple of decades, the focus of the Democratic party when it comes to policy endeavors has been almost exclusively on urban areas. There's a tendency for democratic politicians, as well as non-politician democratic supporters to denigrate rural residents, to treat them as if they don't matter and are less-than-human. Is it any wonder that people who get treated like offal by the left might feel more alignment with the right?

So, as I said, political leaning is correlated, but not causal. As TM pointed out, using geographic boundaries as an arbitrary categorization for both vaccination and political persuasion is iffy.

I would suggest that a comparison of vaccination rates by 1) income
and 2) travel distance to receive vaccination would both indicate high levels of correlation. Even within a blue county, I strongly suspect you will see higher levels of vaccination among more affluent people, and lower levels among poorer people - regardless of their political preference.
What a load of unmitigated horse's cock! Completely wrong on every single premise.

Economics - very minor driver. The vaccine is free, no excuses.

Urbanity - not a driver at all. Rural people have had shorter queues, drop in sites and larger vaccine stocks per population, i.e. better and easier access to vaccinations than urban people

Partisan Politics - major driver. GOP politicians have been spewing and spreading conspiracy theories to their constituents about the virus and the vaccine. Democrat politicians, have been imploring people to get vaccinated.

Media Messaging - major driver. Right wing media have been telling people the vaccine will inject them with a microchip to track them, emphaising their "freedumbs" over their health choices and advising them not to be vaccinated. Left wing and centrist media have been doing the opposite, ridiculing the right's conspiracy theories, encouraging their viewers/readers to get vaccinated
Media Messaging - major driver
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Old 27th August 2021, 03:27 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
There is simply, no way this is be true.

If Trump had not politicised this right from the outset; if both Houses of Congress had taken a bipartisan stand and made it clear when vaccines became available; that everyone should get vaccinated, if you didn't have DeSantis and other idiot politicians like that governor from Texas fighting against mask mandates in businesses and schools, if all the media from both extremes of the political spectrum were giving out the same "get vaccinated" messaging, the vaccination maps would not look ANYTHING like they do now, and the vaccination programs would have much more difficulty keeping up with demand



What a load of unmitigated horse's cock! Completely wrong on every single premise.

Economics - very minor driver. The vaccine is free, no excuses.

Urbanity - not a driver at all. Rural people have had shorter queues, drop in sites and larger vaccine stocks per population, i.e. better and easier access to vaccinations than urban people

Partisan Politics - major driver. GOP politicians have been spewing and spreading conspiracy theories to their constituents about the virus and the vaccine. Democrat politicians, have been imploring people to get vaccinated.

Media Messaging - major driver. Right wing media have been telling people the vaccine will inject them with a microchip to track them, emphaising their "freedumbs" over their health choices and advising them not to be vaccinated. Left wing and centrist media have been doing the opposite, ridiculing the right's conspiracy theories, encouraging their viewers/readers to get vaccinated
Media Messaging - major driver
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Old 27th August 2021, 04:54 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Total nonsense.

ETA: This isn't horse and buggy days. People who live on farms aren't living in the 1800's; they have trucks/cars. Getting to a pharmacy or a vaccination center isn't that difficult and the vaccine is readily available upon walk ins. If they aren't vaccinated by now, it's because they choose not to be.
Well, I guess it's good to know that the widely observed care gaps and failure to get basic care - even for preventive services that the customer doesn't pay for at the point of service - are a figment of the collective imagination of the health insurance and provider industries as a whole! Poorer health outcomes for people in low income urban as well as rural areas are really just because those damned poor people could get those readily available services if they really wanted to...
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Old 27th August 2021, 04:57 PM   #233
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For the pile of people who have just decided to call me an outright liar for information related to my area of expertise...

What is your explanation for why low-income people in densely populated urban areas also have a lower rate of vaccination? Are inner city minorities and poor people all Trumpistas in your book?
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Old 27th August 2021, 05:00 PM   #234
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
There is simply, no way this is be true.

If Trump had not politicised this right from the outset; if both Houses of Congress had taken a bipartisan stand and made it clear when vaccines became available; that everyone should get vaccinated, if you didn't have DeSantis and other idiot politicians like that governor from Texas fighting against mask mandates in businesses and schools, if all the media from both extremes of the political spectrum were giving out the same "get vaccinated" messaging, the vaccination maps would not look ANYTHING like they do now, and the vaccination programs would have much more difficulty keeping up with demand

What a load of unmitigated horse's cock! Completely wrong on every single premise.

Economics - very minor driver. The vaccine is free, no excuses.

Urbanity - not a driver at all. Rural people have had shorter queues, drop in sites and larger vaccine stocks per population, i.e. better and easier access to vaccinations than urban people

Partisan Politics - major driver. GOP politicians have been spewing and spreading conspiracy theories to their constituents about the virus and the vaccine. Democrat politicians, have been imploring people to get vaccinated.

Media Messaging - major driver. Right wing media have been telling people the vaccine will inject them with a microchip to track them, emphaising their "freedumbs" over their health choices and advising them not to be vaccinated. Left wing and centrist media have been doing the opposite, ridiculing the right's conspiracy theories, encouraging their viewers/readers to get vaccinated
Media Messaging - major driver

An interesting anecdote.

I'm in Castle Rock, Washington. It's a small town just off Interstate 5. between Chehalis (29 mi) population 8,000 and Longview, (13 mi) population 35,000. Both have Walmarts and Home Depots and a multiple number of pharmacies. Right this moment there are people on the freeway overpass protesting mask mandates.
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Old 27th August 2021, 05:01 PM   #235
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Well, I guess it's good to know that the widely observed care gaps and failure to get basic care - even for preventive services that the customer doesn't pay for at the point of service - are a figment of the collective imagination of the health insurance and provider industries as a whole! Poorer health outcomes for people in low income urban as well as rural areas are really just because those damned poor people could get those readily available services if they really wanted to...

In this case they are. No other care has been offered in the same manner as these vaccines. Because of the known effect youíre referring to, additional steps were taken to provide vaccination opportunities to rural areas.

Youíre conflating a generality (rural areas have less access to health care) with a specific case (rural areas have less access to the COVID-19 vaccines). Itís a category error, the same type of error Tragic Monkey has been discussing, actually. By using too big a bucket (all health care), youíre missing the actual case at hand.

This is not to say that access plays no role, but itís not the major driver.


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Old 27th August 2021, 05:20 PM   #236
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
For the pile of people who have just decided to call me an outright liar for information related to my area of expertise...

What is your explanation for why low-income people in densely populated urban areas also have a lower rate of vaccination? Are inner city minorities and poor people all Trumpistas in your book?
Your appeal to personal authority is not evidence of anything.

Instead of making unsupported assertions, how about you show me actual data for "low-income densely populated urban areas" (and be sure to include evidence-based information about the political leanings of those areas), show they have equally low vaccination rates regardless of their politics.

ETA: Here I'll even give you a kick starter

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...20e3_w#T1_down
"Vaccine hesitancy in rural areas is a major barrier that public health practitioners, health care providers, and local partners need to address to achieve vaccination equity. In March 2021, a poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that vaccine hesitancy was highest in rural communities, with 21% of rural residents stating that they would “definitely not” get a vaccine compared with 10% of urban residents. Among the rural respondents, 45% of younger adults (aged 18–64 years) stated that they would “definitely not” get a vaccine compared with 8% of older adults (aged 60–69 years). Rural residents who reported that they would “definitely not” get a vaccine were more likely to report not having a college degree and earning <$40,000 per year (8). Notably, 86% of rural residents report they trust their own health care providers for information on COVID-19 vaccines, which highlights the importance of public health practitioners working with established outpatient health care systems in rural areas. Through its Vaccinate with Confidence initiative, CDC continues to support rural jurisdictions and local partners in their efforts to improve access to, and bolster trust and confidence in, COVID-19 vaccines."

Perhaps you can explain to us all what is driving the vaccine hesitancy in rural areas if its not the politics and media messaging.

Pro Tip: Vaccine hesinancy is an ATTITUDE!!! Neither economics nor the area where you live drives vaccine hesitancy when the vaccine is free and available to anyone and everyone.
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Old 27th August 2021, 05:23 PM   #237
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Originally Posted by Hellbound View Post
In this case they are. No other care has been offered in the same manner as these vaccines. Because of the known effect youíre referring to, additional steps were taken to provide vaccination opportunities to rural areas.
Indeed. A massive campaign was launched (and is still running) of free testing, free vaccine clinics. No insurance, no prior relationship with the healthcare provider, no problem. Only a fraction of the people who got their vaccine from my employer were our actual patients. We opened temporary facilities, new facilities, set up tents, did drive-thrus...the efforts extended were extraordinary. I cannot think of an equivalent deployment of healthcare relief in this country in my lifetime.
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Old 27th August 2021, 05:37 PM   #238
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Originally Posted by Hellbound View Post
In this case they are. No other care has been offered in the same manner as these vaccines. Because of the known effect you’re referring to, additional steps were taken to provide vaccination opportunities to rural areas.
Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Indeed. A massive campaign was launched (and is still running) of free testing, free vaccine clinics. No insurance, no prior relationship with the healthcare provider, no problem. Only a fraction of the people who got their vaccine from my employer were our actual patients. We opened temporary facilities, new facilities, set up tents, did drive-thrus...the efforts extended were extraordinary. I cannot think of an equivalent deployment of healthcare relief in this country in my lifetime.
I don't know your ages, but you might be old enough to remember the polio vaccine drive in the 1960's. That was not as big as this but it went on for several years and is probably the last time anything of this magnitude was deployed.
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Old 27th August 2021, 05:42 PM   #239
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GOP senator to Asheville business group: COVID-19 unvaccinated the problem, not immigrants

Senator Thom Tillis speaks at a press conference in Canton after Tropical Depression Fred on Thursday, Aiugust 19, 2021.

ASHEVILLE - Sen. Thom Tillis told a conservative local business group that anti-pandemic measures should focus on getting North Carolinians vaccinated, not on migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

"If you look at a state like North Carolina, even absent the possible threat of spreading through illegal crossings, we've got a real problem here with people not getting the vaccine," Tills said Aug. 26 to the Council of Independent Business Owners.

The recently reelected Republican's statement in the Zoom meeting with CIBO flies in the face of right-wing claims that the surge of Central American migrants is driving the country's current COVID-19 spike.

https://www.citizen-times.com/story/...c/5599251001/?
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Old 27th August 2021, 06:09 PM   #240
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I don't know your ages, but you might be old enough to remember the polio vaccine drive in the 1960's. That was not as big as this but it went on for several years and is probably the last time anything of this magnitude was deployed.
I just remember going to the gymnasium in elementary school and getting shots. I remember a big measles scare. I have the scar that looks like a dime size blemish on my upper arm. For the life of me I had no idea what vaccines we were getting.

My parents didn't mess around with that stuff. If the Public Health department said a vaccine was recommended we would get the vaccine. They grew up during the Depression and WW2. My father lost multiple siblings to a meningitis outbreak.
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