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Old 6th July 2020, 12:22 AM   #401
Orphia Nay
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Victoria has 5 people in intensive care today (according to the Premier's daily briefing).

Victoria's population is 6.3 million.

1 person died of it yesterday, a man aged 90.

Total COVID-19 deaths so far in Victoria: 22.
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Old 6th July 2020, 04:38 AM   #402
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Victoria has 5 people in intensive care today (according to the Premier's daily briefing).

Victoria's population is 6.3 million.

1 person died of it yesterday, a man aged 90.

Total COVID-19 deaths so far in Victoria: 22.
Victoria is in deep human solid waste products and does not know how to get out of it. The number of new cases has been doubling every 2 weeks since the end of May. They should be in total lockdown. The only good news is that there are signs the increase is slowing.
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Old 6th July 2020, 11:48 AM   #403
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Victoria has 5 people in intensive care today (according to the Premier's daily briefing).

Victoria's population is 6.3 million.

1 person died of it yesterday, a man aged 90.

Total COVID-19 deaths so far in Victoria: 22.
Stalin is smiling in his grave. "One death is tragedy, one million deaths is statistic."

One 90 yo bloke dies in Victoria and makes the news. 1000 (10,000? 100,000?) die in India and don't even get counted.

I have to say, NZ & Aussie are getting a leetle bit hysterical about it all - the odd case isn't the end of the world.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Victoria is in deep human solid waste products and does not know how to get out of it. The number of new cases has been doubling every 2 weeks since the end of May. They should be in total lockdown. The only good news is that there are signs the increase is slowing.
Sorry mate, but that is just hysteria. "Doubling every two weeks" is terrible when you have 5000 cases, but not a disaster when your starting number is about 20.

Yes, it's an issue, caused by human stupidity (and we're very bloody lucky the same didn't happen here) but swift action's being taken and all will be well. The daily case load will probably get up to 150-200 before it comes down. Those housing towers look like ready-made incubators.
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Old 6th July 2020, 01:54 PM   #404
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>
Sorry mate, but that is just hysteria. "Doubling every two weeks" is terrible when you have 5000 cases, but not a disaster when your starting number is about 20.

Yes, it's an issue, caused by human stupidity (and we're very bloody lucky the same didn't happen here) but swift action's being taken and all will be well. The daily case load will probably get up to 150-200 before it comes down. Those housing towers look like ready-made incubators.
The problem is not just the number of new cases. The problem is if one person goes interstate and becomes a super spreader then it ceases to be a Victorian problem. They may be closing the borders, but there are many roads between Victoria and NSW. Then there are the border towns, such as Albury Wodonga. A person lives in one state and works in the other. Can they go to work?

They have locked down certain suburbs. This is something they can do because the numbers are so low. If this is not effective because there are cases outside of those suburbs then they will have to lock down the whole state. Then hope it has not gone interstate by then.

Sometimes the correct reaction is hysteria. This is one of them. When faced with a problem that is growing exponentially the problem is much bigger than it appears so you need to react much stronger than the known facts are telling you.
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Old 6th July 2020, 05:45 PM   #405
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Sometimes the correct reaction is hysteria. This is one of them. When faced with a problem that is growing exponentially the problem is much bigger than it appears so you need to react much stronger than the known facts are telling you.
That's not hysteria. That is an appropriate and proportional reaction. Hysteria is the opposite of that.
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Old 7th July 2020, 04:47 AM   #406
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
That's not hysteria. That is an appropriate and proportional reaction. Hysteria is the opposite of that.

And South Africa shows this very well.

Data from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public...ases-worldwide

but my own graph of the 7-day average, shifted so that it's centred on the date (so 3-days ahead and 3 days behind - hence the curve stopping on July 4th)

EcUjaqMXkAES6of.png

This is a log plot, on the Y-axis, showing the exponential growth
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Old 7th July 2020, 03:22 PM   #407
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
That's not hysteria. That is an appropriate and proportional reaction. Hysteria is the opposite of that.
Please tell that to The Atheist who first used that word. And the numbers in Victoria are currently going up by over 100 a day, not 20.

Edit. Make that 191 new cases yesterday.
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Old 7th July 2020, 04:52 PM   #408
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Please tell that to The Atheist who first used that word. And the numbers in Victoria are currently going up by over 100 a day, not 20.

Edit. Make that 191 new cases yesterday.
Indeed, the number has jumped in the last few days and now as you know Melbourne is going into a six-week lockdown. Is that hysterical (I ask both you and The Atheist)? I put it to you that it is not. It is proportional and appropriate, given the circumstances.
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Old 7th July 2020, 04:58 PM   #409
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Please tell that to The Atheist who first used that word.
I used it negatively. You were the one who said hysteria was a fair response.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
And the numbers in Victoria are currently going up by over 100 a day, not 20.
That's the kind of hysteria I was meaning - you are wrong.

New cases in all of Australia have increased from 80 to 170 in the past 10 days. That would be an increase of 9 per day, not 100.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Edit. Make that 191 new cases yesterday.
I don't know where you got that from, because the DoH says 169.
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Old 8th July 2020, 12:30 AM   #410
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Am not happy. The ACT have just had 3 new cases in one family. They had just come back from Melbourne.


Quote:
Three Canberra residents from the same household have tested positive for coronavirus, a month after the last known positive case in the territory, ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr has confirmed.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...cases/12434772

If there are many more cases then the ACT might have to go back into lockdown. Victoria should have been off limits since mid June at the latest. If they had done that then the ACT would have been safe.
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Old 8th July 2020, 12:40 AM   #411
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>
New cases in all of Australia have increased from 80 to 170 in the past 10 days. That would be an increase of 9 per day, not 100.

<snip>
July 7 figures 8755 cases

June 27 figures 7641 cases in Australia

The difference is 1114 cases in 10 days. Most (837) of these are from Victoria.
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Old 8th July 2020, 03:47 AM   #412
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
July 7 figures 8755 cases

June 27 figures 7641 cases in Australia

The difference is 1114 cases in 10 days. Most (837) of these are from Victoria.
Yes, it's concerning in Australia - my charting of the ECDC data again on a log plot on the Y axis. And with a 7-day average to account for day of the week effects. Again the average is of three days ahead and three days behind the listed day, so unlike the excel moving average trendline, it doesn't lag.

Australia ECDC 20200708.jpg
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Old 8th July 2020, 02:04 PM   #413
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Am not happy. The ACT have just had 3 new cases in one family. They had just come back from Melbourne.
Ouch!

They won't be the only ones.

Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
If there are many more cases then the ACT might have to go back into lockdown. Victoria should have been off limits since mid June at the latest. If they had done that then the ACT would have been safe.
I'm guessing people in Adelaide are feeling somewhat smug about now.
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Old 8th July 2020, 03:21 PM   #414
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Am not happy. The ACT have just had 3 new cases in one family. They had just come back from Melbourne.




https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-...cases/12434772

If there are many more cases then the ACT might have to go back into lockdown. Victoria should have been off limits since mid June at the latest. If they had done that then the ACT would have been safe.
More ******** from you.

Know how many international passengers arrived in NSW in the past month? 40,000. All gone into strictly supervised quarantine? No, all self-isolated . (Other states had arrivals as well, but nowhere near as many as NSW). And most did not even have temperature tests as they arrived. And, unlike Victoria, they are still arriving in Sydney. A ticking timebomb.

All states have been living with the folly that they had effectively beaten the virus. Yes, Victoria botched up hotel quarantine badly and Dan Andrew may well fall as a result, but the smug superiority of state leaders who are letting people arrive from overseas in large numbers is sickening.

When spikes hit in NSW don’t blame Victoria.
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Old 8th July 2020, 03:26 PM   #415
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post

I'm guessing people in Adelaide are feeling somewhat smug about now.
Well 700 international passengers arrived in SA last month. I have no idea why anyone goes there, but SA’s smugness might soon be tested.
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Old 8th July 2020, 04:11 PM   #416
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I see that NSW has now cut overseas passengers to 400 a day. Hmmmm, wonder why? No doubt someone will come up with a link to Victoria.....
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Old 8th July 2020, 04:30 PM   #417
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Over 238,000 people have already applied for border passes into Queensland.
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Old 8th July 2020, 05:32 PM   #418
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13 cases in NSW today. Where from? Not Victoria.
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Old 8th July 2020, 05:51 PM   #419
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NSW has issued 125,000 border permits in the last two days.
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Old 8th July 2020, 09:46 PM   #420
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Yesterday, after so long of no cases to single digit cases, hawaii posted its record high of 41 cases. Today is 23 so far
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Old 8th July 2020, 11:00 PM   #421
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Your state health department doesn't seem to show those numbers?

It looks like administrative slackness.

While the department is counting probables each day, the count you're seeing is getting results from past days and adding them in, by the looks of it.
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Old 8th July 2020, 11:02 PM   #422
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
More ******** from you.

Know how many international passengers arrived in NSW in the past month? 40,000. All gone into strictly supervised quarantine? No, all self-isolated . (Other states had arrivals as well, but nowhere near as many as NSW). And most did not even have temperature tests as they arrived. And, unlike Victoria, they are still arriving in Sydney. A ticking timebomb.

All states have been living with the folly that they had effectively beaten the virus. Yes, Victoria botched up hotel quarantine badly and Dan Andrew may well fall as a result, but the smug superiority of state leaders who are letting people arrive from overseas in large numbers is sickening.

When spikes hit in NSW don’t blame Victoria.
Nothing in your post addresses anything I have said in my post. I can only assume then that the first paragraph refers to what you say in your own posts. Here is some factual information about what you say.

Quote:
Travellers arriving from overseas will undergo health screening before being taken to a hotel for mandatory 14-day quarantine.
https://www.sydneyairport.com.au/info-sheet/covid19
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Old 8th July 2020, 11:07 PM   #423
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>

I'm guessing people in Adelaide are feeling somewhat smug about now.
I think SA has had its borders closed for some time. So they will be relatively safe. At least from Victorians. Smug might not be the word though.
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Old 8th July 2020, 11:53 PM   #424
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Smug might not be the word though.
Fair comment actually. Nobody over here feels smug - it's been an effort and it's far from over, and as the scumbag who escaped from quarantine yesterday showed, they're not dealing with people who necessarily want to comply.

Shooting would be a fair punishment.

I thought this summed it up pretty well:

Quote:
Housing minister Megan Woods echoed Chris Hipkins’ words on Thursday, and said the man who broke out did not deserve to be “in the team of five million”.

“Anyone who chooses to break out of these facilities is committing a reckless act of selfishness, and they're putting the rest of New Zealand at risk.”
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Old 9th July 2020, 12:05 AM   #425
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Fair comment actually. Nobody over here feels smug - it's been an effort and it's far from over, and as the scumbag who escaped from quarantine yesterday showed, they're not dealing with people who necessarily want to comply.

Shooting would be a fair punishment.

I thought this summed it up pretty well:
That is nasty. Not you, but the person who escaped from custody. Not to mention the people who allowed him to escape. How about if that person is Covid 19 positive and infects someone else who then dies to charge the escapee with murder? That is the foreseeable consequence of what they do.
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Old 9th July 2020, 01:54 AM   #426
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Your state health department doesn't seem to show those numbers?

It looks like administrative slackness.

While the department is counting probables each day, the count you're seeing is getting results from past days and adding them in, by the looks of it.
they show numbers, we just had a long time of very few cases and then it ramped up recently, with yesterday being the record high
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Old 9th July 2020, 01:56 AM   #427
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Fair comment actually. Nobody over here feels smug - it's been an effort and it's far from over, and as the scumbag who escaped from quarantine yesterday showed, they're not dealing with people who necessarily want to comply.

Shooting would be a fair punishment.

I thought this summed it up pretty well:

Kauai is treating these type of scum pretty harsh
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Old 9th July 2020, 11:32 AM   #428
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
That is nasty. Not you, but the person who escaped from custody. Not to mention the people who allowed him to escape. How about if that person is Covid 19 positive and infects someone else who then dies to charge the escapee with murder? That is the foreseeable consequence of what they do.
I think a charge of unintentional manslaughter might stick. Perhaps stronger if the circumstances are right.
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Old 12th July 2020, 12:45 AM   #429
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Well 700 international passengers arrived in SA last month. I have no idea why anyone goes there, but SA’s smugness might soon be tested.
Two of whom have tested positive for covid while in quarantine.

In terms of personal best effort though?

The Victorian who has been caught driving drunk, unregistered, uninsured and unlicensed, in Port Augusta during the period that he was supposed to be self isolating.
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Old 20th July 2020, 04:08 PM   #430
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So now we understand Hawaii...it wasn;t the spam, it was the Kim CHi

https://www.donga.com/en/article/all...tE8tnTzUL9G1lM
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Old 20th July 2020, 06:46 PM   #431
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Yeah, that came up a while back. I wouldn't rule it out, but definitely needs more work.

How many Hawaiians eat that stuff?
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Old 20th July 2020, 07:39 PM   #432
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So now we understand Hawaii...it wasn;t the spam, it was the Kim CHi

https://www.donga.com/en/article/all...tE8tnTzUL9G1lM
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yeah, that came up a while back. I wouldn't rule it out, but definitely needs more work.

How many Hawaiians eat that stuff?
No idea how accurate the idea is, however if 50% of the population eat something that makes them immune to Covid-19 then the virus would have extreme difficulty in spreading very far. The actual % might be different depending on what other measures are taken to limit the spread and how infectious it actually is.

I think this is something that should be investigated. If eating a certain food gives a person immunity then this would be as good as a good vaccine. There is no guarantee that a vaccine will be developed that works in the next few years.
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Old 25th July 2020, 02:01 AM   #433
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
How many Hawaiians eat that stuff?
All of em, quite often
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Old 25th July 2020, 02:52 AM   #434
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Well, I guess the proof will be if the current surge dissipates and you don't go like two other early contenders - Aussie & South Africa.

I have to confess, I'm struggling to understand why it's happening now on in Hawaii, if it does break out heavily - I really would have thought you'd be in the same shape as other states, or worse, given your relative proximity to China, if you were going to be affected by it.
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Old 25th July 2020, 11:23 AM   #435
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Everyone from the sick states are fleeing here and social media influencers keep being arrested for breaking quarantine. For some reason, community spread just doesn't seem to want to take, but REALLY stupid crap like airlines packing all their employees into a room yelling for training seminars kep causing super spreading events
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Old 25th July 2020, 12:59 PM   #436
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Here's a PDF by JPM.

https://www.jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320748777535.pdf

COVID-19 infection tracking, US hotspots and second waves of infection around the world

Lot's of charts in different parts of the World. Also a lot of detail on individual state differences inside the USA.


Also, under "How did Asia Do It?," a discussion of the different levels of tracing used by various countries including a rather curious cluster comparison of "collectivist" v "individualist" oriented countries. Rather odd for such a premier banker.

Quote:
A standard cluster analysis shows a high degree of significance when thinking about COVID within a collectivism/individualism dimension.
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Old 25th July 2020, 03:32 PM   #437
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Everyone from the sick states are fleeing here and social media influencers keep being arrested for breaking quarantine. For some reason, community spread just doesn't seem to want to take, but REALLY stupid crap like airlines packing all their employees into a room yelling for training seminars kep causing super spreading events
Yeah, good luck with it! I hope there is some natural immunity which keeps it at bay for you all.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
COVID-19 infection tracking, US hotspots and second waves of infection around the world
That's one term that I see being used all over the place which is entirely inappropriate: "second wave".

It's not.

A second wave happens when the first wave is finished, and Covid right now is undergoing a new surge of the first wave, which is maybe 10% of the way through.
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Old 25th July 2020, 05:15 PM   #438
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That's one term that I see being used all over the place which is entirely inappropriate: "second wave".

It's not.

A second wave happens when the first wave is finished, and Covid right now is undergoing a new surge of the first wave, which is maybe 10% of the way through.
Depends.
Second wave in some places, continuation of the first wave in others. Definitions can vary but mine is when deaths decline then start increasing again. When it reached 2 to 1 I think of it as a second wave. It doesn't have to decline to zero or near zero to be a second wave.

Also, I don't think clusters, especially from foreign returnees, that are controlled by tracing once it gets down to near zero as a second wave. A second wave has to be an increase associated with community spread.
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Old 25th July 2020, 05:57 PM   #439
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Depends.
Second wave in some places, continuation of the first wave in others.
Not according to clinicians:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...perts-1st.html

https://theconversation.com/can-we-p...ovid-19-140140

Including Johns Hopkins:

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...of-coronavirus
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Old 25th July 2020, 06:52 PM   #440
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Predictions are hard. Especially about the future.

All those articles are a month or more old. Since then there are a lot of states in the US that are seeing a second wave where deaths had declined 4x or more. Even the USA as a whole is now experiencing a second wave but wasn't when those pieces were written. The 7 day moving average of deaths had been consistently declining up to a month ago. Now it's about 80% higher than the trough.

That's a pretty good example of a second wave. It just didn't wait until winter. While there may be seasonal effects with covid-19, as there certainly are with influenza, the R is far higher for Covid-19 and the seasonal effects, if any, are dwarfed by the high R and the way it's modified by social distancing, shutdowns, openings, and compliance.

As Fauci said back then:
Quote:
Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health. "We're in the first wave. Let's get out of the first wave before you have a second wave."
Too late. We are now in the second one.
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