China - Page 12

Lplus · 7th December 2022, 04:46 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'd be interested in an update on how the silo fields are progressing.

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021...lds-discovered

I had a discussion the other day and a guy asked me how I thought the China/US would pan out.

My pick is around 2045 China will tell America it's taking back Taiwan and that they have 5000 nukes aimed at American targets if America tries to intervene.

At which stage America, faced with the choice of self-immolating over a small country 8000 km away, will back down.

I wonder if by that time the US and the rest of the "west" will have ensured the transfer of high tech manufacturing away from Tiawan anyway.

GraculusTheGreenBird · 7th December 2022, 05:25 AM

Originally Posted by Lplus

I wonder if by that time the US and the rest of the "west" will have ensured the transfer of high tech manufacturing away from Tiawan anyway.

It seems unlikely China in 2045 will be anything like the China we know now.

They cant do anything about the age problem, it will already have started to hit in the 2030s.

I don't see their economy surviving without major reforms.

Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify.

Ziggurat · 7th December 2022, 08:22 AM

Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird

Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify.

At this point, I suspect not. If China does liberalize, then Taiwan can get most of the benefits of reunification (better economic relations, easier travel, etc.) without actually unifying. And they won't run the risk of what happens if there is another revolution in the mainland.

Plus, given the disparity of economic prosperity between Taiwan and mainland China, Taiwan might get dragged down having to contribute taxes to pay for stuff like rural development. West Germany took a big economic hit with reunification, and it was several times the size to East Germany. Taiwan has a lot more to risk with reunification, even with a completely democratic and liberal mainland. If I were Taiwanese, I wouldn't want it.

GraculusTheGreenBird · 7th December 2022, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

At this point, I suspect not. If China does liberalize, then Taiwan can get most of the benefits of reunification (better economic relations, easier travel, etc.) without actually unifying. And they won't run the risk of what happens if there is another revolution in the mainland.

Plus, given the disparity of economic prosperity between Taiwan and mainland China, Taiwan might get dragged down having to contribute taxes to pay for stuff like rural development. West Germany took a big economic hit with reunification, and it was several times the size to East Germany. Taiwan has a lot more to risk with reunification, even with a completely democratic and liberal mainland. If I were Taiwanese, I wouldn't want it.

Interesting points. I don't really know enough about Taiwan to argue either way

Lplus · 7th December 2022, 11:07 AM

Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird

It seems unlikely China in 2045 will be anything like the China we know now.

They cant do anything about the age problem, it will already have started to hit in the 2030s.

I don't see their economy surviving without major reforms.

Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify.

I do wonder if that might be a spur to action "before it's too late" Shades of another despot....

The Atheist · 7th December 2022, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by Lplus

I wonder if by that time the US and the rest of the "west" will have ensured the transfer of high tech manufacturing away from Tiawan anyway.

Already happening.

Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird

Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify.

That appears to be true.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order...-just-culture/

dudalb · 7th December 2022, 05:43 PM

Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird

It seems unlikely China in 2045 will be anything like the China we know now.

T.

You can say that about any country on Earth.

dudalb · 7th December 2022, 05:45 PM

Originally Posted by lomiller

China has undoubtedly been successful over the last 30 years, and this has allowed it to improve the lives of it's citizens on a massive scale. People haven't resisted the lack of political freedom because for the most part their interests were still being served. I think this is coming to an end though and it doesn't have much to do with Covid policy.

China's success is much like US success in the 50's, but if China wants to take the next step and improve it's citizens lives again they need to pivot their economy in much the same way the US has since it's golden age of industrial production. Labor intensive production line work is, for the most part, always going to be low pay low productivity and that puts an upper limit on the quality of life those types of jobs can offer. To move beyond that level you need to start exporting the more manual less valuable manufacturing jobs to lower wage economies abroad. Then you can focus those resources on building a service economy and promoting your own consumer economy.

The US resisted and lamented this change while it was happening and some idiots still want to go back, but it didn't have a government form that could simply legislate it away. China is so intent on replicating what has worked for the last 30 years that it's refusing to move forward.

This is starting to prevent it from improving the lives of it's middle class, which has grown very large. There are still some people being lifted from poverty but they are now outnumbered by the stalled middle class. If recent reports that China has overestimated it's population by up to 200 million people, the stalled middle class now outnumbers the very poor by almost 3:1.

All this suggests that the number of people willing to tolerate lack of freedom in exchange for constant improvement in their day to day lives is rapidly changing. On the other side of the ledger the government has more and more to lose if it suppresses dissent to harshly. Cracking down too harshly would harm the economy the government has become dependent on (something their Covid policy does show us) reducing the governments power and increasing the agitation in the population.

All in all I think China is rapidly approaching an inflection point where something has to change. This could mean transforming it's economy and political system to something more like Japan or South Korea Or, it will start to see the gains it made start to unwind and possibly even enter a death spiral where economic collapse causes unrest and harsh crackdowns cause further collapse in a viscous cycle. I have no guess as to which one happens.

Pretty much the same choices the Soviet Union faced. We all knew the choice they made and how it worked out.

dudalb · 7th December 2022, 05:47 PM

Originally Posted by Frank Newgent

Come that day do you think you will prefer one side over the other?

He will prefer China; if you look at his posting history he hates the United States with a passion.

dudalb · 7th December 2022, 05:48 PM

I am scared that so many people who consider themselves progressives are basically taking China's side in this.

arthwollipot · 7th December 2022, 05:52 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

I am scared that so many people who consider themselves progressives are basically taking China's side in this.

Who's taking China's side?

The Atheist · 7th December 2022, 06:31 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

I am scared that so many people who consider themselves progressives are basically taking China's side in this.

Quite right - I consider people who support China to be people who give the regime their money.

Have a quick check for me and see how many of the things in your home were made in China so I can decide if you support the regime or not. Start with your cellphone, computer, electronics in your car, TV, fridge and all the other appliances.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

Who's taking China's side?

People who don't falsify facts to show China as an economic failure.

Roboramma · 7th December 2022, 09:12 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Quite right - I consider people who support China to be people who give the regime their money.

Have a quick check for me and see how many of the things in your home were made in China so I can decide if you support the regime or not. Start with your cellphone, computer, electronics in your car, TV, fridge and all the other appliances.

I don't know man, that's a mixed issue. Yes, by contributing to the Chinese economy you're also contributing to the regime, but you're also contributing to the economy in general, and people buying Chinese goods is exactly how hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty here.

People not buying Chinese goods isn't going to bring down the CCP, but it would hurt a great deal of Chinese people.

There are more direct ways that people in the west collaborate with the CCP (the NBA is a big culprit here, as is Hollywood), but buying Chinese made goods seems to me to be on balance a good thing.

GraculusTheGreenBird · 8th December 2022, 04:24 AM

Originally Posted by dudalb

You can say that about any country on Earth.

Up to a point, I suppose, but most nations don't fundamentally change direction in 20 years.

But we are talking about China, not any country on earth. And they do fundamentally change direction in 20 years, often.

The Atheist · 8th December 2022, 04:37 PM

Originally Posted by Roboramma

I don't know man, that's a mixed issue.

Sorry, I was hoping the tongue would be seen firmly in my cheek.

I get sick of people claiming stating facts is support. To me, it's every bit as bad to take that kind of attitude than actively support a genocidal and insane regime.

arthwollipot · 8th December 2022, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I get sick of people claiming stating facts is support. To me, it's every bit as bad to take that kind of attitude than actively support a genocidal and insane regime.

Yeah, definitely. If you don't acknowledge the strength of your opponent you will lose to them. It's not going over to their side to do so, it is sound strategic thinking.

theprestige · 8th December 2022, 05:49 PM

The point is that China isn't as strong as it looks. Australia is giving a bad movie positive reviews based on the trailer. Even though everyone knows that trailers lie.

Of course China is still strong enough to cause serious trouble for Australia. Unless Australia ups its game, or finds partners willing and able to play at or above China's level. Australia's problem here is refusing to believe such partners exist, and refusing to do the work themselves.

Australia would rather be a Chinese vassal than a US-Korea-Japan-Taiwan-Filippines security partner, because reasons. Instead, they'd rather be a rump state in the imagined New Greater China Prosperity Sphere.

arthwollipot · 8th December 2022, 05:56 PM

Australia's main problem is incompetency at the executive level, which after the last election we are trying our hardest to mitigate. Penny Wong and Richard Marles were in the US just this week, talking about China and the details of the AUKUS agreement.

If, or rather when China makes a move on Taiwan, you ******* bet we'll be in there beside the US.

The Atheist · 8th December 2022, 06:36 PM

Originally Posted by theprestige

Australia would rather be a Chinese vassal than a US-Korea-Japan-Taiwan-Filippines security partner, because reasons.

Get a clue, mate - you have no idea what you're blubbering about.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...ions-in-region

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ew-hastie-says

https://www.defence.gov.au/about/tas...us-partnership

arthwollipot · 8th December 2022, 09:53 PM

And after security talks in the US, Penny and Rich are off to Japan to work on the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, further putting the lie to theprestige's claim that Australia isn't interested in that.

And we're doing this while continuing to repair our relations with China, which were fair wrecked by the Morrison **** show.

Ziggurat · 9th December 2022, 06:22 AM

Originally Posted by Roboramma

There are more direct ways that people in the west collaborate with the CCP (the NBA is a big culprit here, as is Hollywood), but buying Chinese made goods seems to me to be on balance a good thing.

I'm sure that also depends on the goods. Buying Huawei 5G equipment? Yeah, you're probably helping the CCP. Buying a cheap wrench set at Lowes? Not so much.

TragicMonkey · 9th December 2022, 07:10 AM

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

I'm sure that also depends on the goods. Buying Huawei 5G equipment? Yeah, you're probably helping the CCP. Buying a cheap wrench set at Lowes? Not so much.

Have you been to Lowe's recently? I think it's entirely plausible that Lowe's is running a psych campaign to drive Americans mad with wrath and thereby reduce our national security. I was there on a Saturday morning and they had nobody staffing the checkouts. Hardware store. On a Saturday morning. That's like a bar sending all its staff home on St Patrick's Day, or a church giving priests Sunday off.

Ziggurat · 9th December 2022, 07:55 AM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

Have you been to Lowe's recently? I think it's entirely plausible that Lowe's is running a psych campaign to drive Americans mad with wrath and thereby reduce our national security. I was there on a Saturday morning and they had nobody staffing the checkouts. Hardware store. On a Saturday morning. That's like a bar sending all its staff home on St Patrick's Day, or a church giving priests Sunday off.

Last time I went was back in September. Also a weekend, but I forget if it was Saturday or Sunday. Didn't have any problems. Maybe it's just local to where you live.

TragicMonkey · 9th December 2022, 08:06 AM

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

Last time I went was back in September. Also a weekend, but I forget if it was Saturday or Sunday. Didn't have any problems. Maybe it's just local to where you live.

Even China can't attack everywhere at once, I guess.

Roboramma · 9th December 2022, 11:39 PM

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

I'm sure that also depends on the goods. Buying Huawei 5G equipment? Yeah, you're probably helping the CCP. Buying a cheap wrench set at Lowes? Not so much.

Yeah, good point.

Orphia Nay · 12th December 2022, 05:58 PM

"China has announced it will deactivate a phone app that has tracked people's movements during the pandemic.

"The national app, which has been operational for three years, will go offline at the end of Monday.

"It is the latest policy change that signals Beijing is abandoning its controversial zero-Covid strategy.

"The move is highly symbolic but will not have a huge impact on people's daily lives because of the local apps still in use in cities across China."

China to deactivate national Covid tracking app https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63941512

Roboramma · 12th December 2022, 06:14 PM

The shift over here over the last few days has been palpable. We're all going from worrying about getting locked down and doing covid tests every 48 hours to preparing to get covid at some point over the next couple of months.
The government has suddenly ramped up vaccination efforts, and they are organizing it by apartment building. Mine did it the day before yesterday, but only for people over 60. Walking the streets in Shanghai over the last few months you'd see people lined up to get covid tests, yesterday we were out and the lines were of people getting vaccinated.

Interesting times.

Orphia Nay · 12th December 2022, 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by Roboramma

The shift over here over the last few days has been palpable. We're all going from worrying about getting locked down and doing covid tests every 48 hours to preparing to get covid at some point over the next couple of months.
The government has suddenly ramped up vaccination efforts, and they are organizing it by apartment building. Mine did it the day before yesterday, but only for people over 60. Walking the streets in Shanghai over the last few months you'd see people lined up to get covid tests, yesterday we were out and the lines were of people getting vaccinated.

Interesting times.

Thanks for the update.

The Atheist · 6th January 2023, 06:09 PM

Take a deep breath, people, this one will shock you: https://www.voanews.com/a/taliban-se...a/6905840.html

theprestige · 6th January 2023, 06:13 PM

LOL @ China making a deal with the Taliban for oil that even the US didn't consider worth the trouble.

dudalb · 6th January 2023, 06:53 PM

The Mandate of Heaven for the current regime should have been withdrawn a long time ago.

Doubt · 6th January 2023, 07:50 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

The Mandate of Heaven for the current regime should have been withdrawn a long time ago.

Usually takes a few generations of bad emperors before the mandate goes away.

The Atheist · 7th January 2023, 02:40 AM

Originally Posted by theprestige

LOL @ China making a deal with the Taliban for oil that even the US didn't consider worth the trouble.

I'd say it's a lot more about the Belt & Road Initiative than the amount of oil, given Xi & Bone Saws' daisy chain a month ago.

Afghanistan provides a handy link between south and north in west Asia.

https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/new...nfrastructure/

The Atheist · 2nd February 2023, 05:06 PM

There doesn't appear to be a word for "subtle" in Chinese.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/penta...b01e9288703321

theprestige · 2nd February 2023, 05:34 PM

If it's stupid and it works... But does it work? I'd imagine US installations are already pretty good at hiding the good stuff from overhead view. Especially when they know an enemy reconnaissance platform will be flying over. What's China going to see, that isn't already on Wikipedia and Google maps?

Maybe it's a SIGINT platform? Hoping to capture US military radio signatures of some kind? That they can't get from asking an expat to do some war driving?

And how is the data getting back home? Long range radio transmission? That the US isn't bothering to jam?

Maybe this balloon was meant to spy on the Russians. They're probably disorganized and ill equipped enough for this kind of unsubtle approach to actually yield results.

dudalb · 3rd February 2023, 01:30 PM

Well, tensions between the US and China have ballooned up over the past couple of days.

The Atheist · 3rd February 2023, 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by theprestige

If it's stupid and it works... But does it work?

Almost certainly not.

It's just another part of the game they're playing with making empty threats about passage through the SC Sea and incursions into Taiwanese air space.

They're not about to fly through US air space in a plane. This probably cost them $200 for helium and a couple of panels to look like cameras.

Frank Newgent · 3rd February 2023, 10:15 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

Well, tensions between the US and China have ballooned up over the past couple of days.

Holy cow, now a Russian, too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJESLxEd0Tk&t=29s

There's another been spotted over over Costa Rica.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...erica-00081198

The Great Zaganza · 3rd February 2023, 11:45 PM

The flash of light you saw in the sky was not a UFO. Swamp gas from a weather balloon was trapped in a thermal pocket and reflected the light from Venus.

The Atheist · 16th February 2023, 09:34 AM

Oh damn!

Things just aren't working as they're supposed to in China.

Straight after having to do an about-face on zero-covid thanks to young Chinese, now the old buggers are protesting: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64658729

7th December 2022, 04:46 AM	#441
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,587	Originally Posted by The Atheist I'd be interested in an update on how the silo fields are progressing. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021...lds-discovered I had a discussion the other day and a guy asked me how I thought the China/US would pan out. My pick is around 2045 China will tell America it's taking back Taiwan and that they have 5000 nukes aimed at American targets if America tries to intervene. At which stage America, faced with the choice of self-immolating over a small country 8000 km away, will back down. I wonder if by that time the US and the rest of the "west" will have ensured the transfer of high tech manufacturing away from Tiawan anyway.
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,587

7th December 2022, 08:22 AM	#443
Ziggurat Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 53,370	Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify. At this point, I suspect not. If China does liberalize, then Taiwan can get most of the benefits of reunification (better economic relations, easier travel, etc.) without actually unifying. And they won't run the risk of what happens if there is another revolution in the mainland. Plus, given the disparity of economic prosperity between Taiwan and mainland China, Taiwan might get dragged down having to contribute taxes to pay for stuff like rural development. West Germany took a big economic hit with reunification, and it was several times the size to East Germany. Taiwan has a lot more to risk with reunification, even with a completely democratic and liberal mainland. If I were Taiwanese, I wouldn't want it.
	__________________ "As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law

7th December 2022, 11:07 AM	#445
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,587	Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird It seems unlikely China in 2045 will be anything like the China we know now. They cant do anything about the age problem, it will already have started to hit in the 2030s. I don't see their economy surviving without major reforms. Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify. I do wonder if that might be a spur to action "before it's too late" Shades of another despot....
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,587

7th December 2022, 05:02 PM	#446
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,267	Originally Posted by Lplus I wonder if by that time the US and the rest of the "west" will have ensured the transfer of high tech manufacturing away from Tiawan anyway. Already happening. Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify. That appears to be true. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order...-just-culture/
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

7th December 2022, 05:43 PM	#447
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,808	Originally Posted by GraculusTheGreenBird It seems unlikely China in 2045 will be anything like the China we know now. T. You can say that about any country on Earth.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

7th December 2022, 05:25 AM	#442
GraculusTheGreenBird Muse Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Hong Kong Posts: 567	Originally Posted by Lplus I wonder if by that time the US and the rest of the "west" will have ensured the transfer of high tech manufacturing away from Tiawan anyway. It seems unlikely China in 2045 will be anything like the China we know now. They cant do anything about the age problem, it will already have started to hit in the 2030s. I don't see their economy surviving without major reforms. Of course, if that comes with political reforms, Taiwan might be happy to reunify.

7th December 2022, 10:23 AM	#444
GraculusTheGreenBird Muse Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Hong Kong Posts: 567	Originally Posted by Ziggurat At this point, I suspect not. If China does liberalize, then Taiwan can get most of the benefits of reunification (better economic relations, easier travel, etc.) without actually unifying. And they won't run the risk of what happens if there is another revolution in the mainland. Plus, given the disparity of economic prosperity between Taiwan and mainland China, Taiwan might get dragged down having to contribute taxes to pay for stuff like rural development. West Germany took a big economic hit with reunification, and it was several times the size to East Germany. Taiwan has a lot more to risk with reunification, even with a completely democratic and liberal mainland. If I were Taiwanese, I wouldn't want it. Interesting points. I don't really know enough about Taiwan to argue either way

7th December 2022, 05:45 PM	#448
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,808	Originally Posted by lomiller China has undoubtedly been successful over the last 30 years, and this has allowed it to improve the lives of it's citizens on a massive scale. People haven't resisted the lack of political freedom because for the most part their interests were still being served. I think this is coming to an end though and it doesn't have much to do with Covid policy. China's success is much like US success in the 50's, but if China wants to take the next step and improve it's citizens lives again they need to pivot their economy in much the same way the US has since it's golden age of industrial production. Labor intensive production line work is, for the most part, always going to be low pay low productivity and that puts an upper limit on the quality of life those types of jobs can offer. To move beyond that level you need to start exporting the more manual less valuable manufacturing jobs to lower wage economies abroad. Then you can focus those resources on building a service economy and promoting your own consumer economy. The US resisted and lamented this change while it was happening and some idiots still want to go back, but it didn't have a government form that could simply legislate it away. China is so intent on replicating what has worked for the last 30 years that it's refusing to move forward. This is starting to prevent it from improving the lives of it's middle class, which has grown very large. There are still some people being lifted from poverty but they are now outnumbered by the stalled middle class. If recent reports that China has overestimated it's population by up to 200 million people, the stalled middle class now outnumbers the very poor by almost 3:1. All this suggests that the number of people willing to tolerate lack of freedom in exchange for constant improvement in their day to day lives is rapidly changing. On the other side of the ledger the government has more and more to lose if it suppresses dissent to harshly. Cracking down too harshly would harm the economy the government has become dependent on (something their Covid policy does show us) reducing the governments power and increasing the agitation in the population. All in all I think China is rapidly approaching an inflection point where something has to change. This could mean transforming it's economy and political system to something more like Japan or South Korea Or, it will start to see the gains it made start to unwind and possibly even enter a death spiral where economic collapse causes unrest and harsh crackdowns cause further collapse in a viscous cycle. I have no guess as to which one happens. Pretty much the same choices the Soviet Union faced. We all knew the choice they made and how it worked out.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

7th December 2022, 05:47 PM	#449
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,808	Originally Posted by Frank Newgent Come that day do you think you will prefer one side over the other? He will prefer China; if you look at his posting history he hates the United States with a passion.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

7th December 2022, 05:48 PM	#450
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,808	I am scared that so many people who consider themselves progressives are basically taking China's side in this.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

7th December 2022, 05:52 PM	#451
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 80,869	Originally Posted by dudalb I am scared that so many people who consider themselves progressives are basically taking China's side in this. Who's taking China's side?
	__________________ Слава Україні! Героям Слава! 20220224 - 20230224

7th December 2022, 06:31 PM	#452
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,267	Originally Posted by dudalb I am scared that so many people who consider themselves progressives are basically taking China's side in this. Quite right - I consider people who support China to be people who give the regime their money. Have a quick check for me and see how many of the things in your home were made in China so I can decide if you support the regime or not. Start with your cellphone, computer, electronics in your car, TV, fridge and all the other appliances. Originally Posted by arthwollipot Who's taking China's side? People who don't falsify facts to show China as an economic failure.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

7th December 2022, 09:12 PM	#453
Roboramma Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shanghai Posts: 15,173	Originally Posted by The Atheist Quite right - I consider people who support China to be people who give the regime their money. Have a quick check for me and see how many of the things in your home were made in China so I can decide if you support the regime or not. Start with your cellphone, computer, electronics in your car, TV, fridge and all the other appliances. I don't know man, that's a mixed issue. Yes, by contributing to the Chinese economy you're also contributing to the regime, but you're also contributing to the economy in general, and people buying Chinese goods is exactly how hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty here. People not buying Chinese goods isn't going to bring down the CCP, but it would hurt a great deal of Chinese people. There are more direct ways that people in the west collaborate with the CCP (the NBA is a big culprit here, as is Hollywood), but buying Chinese made goods seems to me to be on balance a good thing.
	__________________ "... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together." Isaac Asimov

8th December 2022, 04:24 AM	#454
GraculusTheGreenBird Muse Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Hong Kong Posts: 567	Originally Posted by dudalb You can say that about any country on Earth. Up to a point, I suppose, but most nations don't fundamentally change direction in 20 years. But we are talking about China, not any country on earth. And they do fundamentally change direction in 20 years, often.

8th December 2022, 04:37 PM	#455
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,267	Originally Posted by Roboramma I don't know man, that's a mixed issue. Sorry, I was hoping the tongue would be seen firmly in my cheek. I get sick of people claiming stating facts is support. To me, it's every bit as bad to take that kind of attitude than actively support a genocidal and insane regime.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

8th December 2022, 05:02 PM	#456
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 80,869	Originally Posted by The Atheist I get sick of people claiming stating facts is support. To me, it's every bit as bad to take that kind of attitude than actively support a genocidal and insane regime. Yeah, definitely. If you don't acknowledge the strength of your opponent you will lose to them. It's not going over to their side to do so, it is sound strategic thinking.
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8th December 2022, 05:49 PM	#457
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 63,559	The point is that China isn't as strong as it looks. Australia is giving a bad movie positive reviews based on the trailer. Even though everyone knows that trailers lie. Of course China is still strong enough to cause serious trouble for Australia. Unless Australia ups its game, or finds partners willing and able to play at or above China's level. Australia's problem here is refusing to believe such partners exist, and refusing to do the work themselves. Australia would rather be a Chinese vassal than a US-Korea-Japan-Taiwan-Filippines security partner, because reasons. Instead, they'd rather be a rump state in the imagined New Greater China Prosperity Sphere.
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8th December 2022, 05:56 PM	#458
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 80,869	Australia's main problem is incompetency at the executive level, which after the last election we are trying our hardest to mitigate. Penny Wong and Richard Marles were in the US just this week, talking about China and the details of the AUKUS agreement. If, or rather when China makes a move on Taiwan, you ******* bet we'll be in there beside the US.
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8th December 2022, 06:36 PM	#459
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,267	Originally Posted by theprestige Australia would rather be a Chinese vassal than a US-Korea-Japan-Taiwan-Filippines security partner, because reasons. Get a clue, mate - you have no idea what you're blubbering about. https://www.theguardian.com/australi...ions-in-region https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ew-hastie-says https://www.defence.gov.au/about/tas...us-partnership
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

8th December 2022, 09:53 PM	#460
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 80,869	And after security talks in the US, Penny and Rich are off to Japan to work on the Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, further putting the lie to theprestige's claim that Australia isn't interested in that. And we're doing this while continuing to repair our relations with China, which were fair wrecked by the Morrison **** show.
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9th December 2022, 06:22 AM	#461
Ziggurat Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 53,370	Originally Posted by Roboramma There are more direct ways that people in the west collaborate with the CCP (the NBA is a big culprit here, as is Hollywood), but buying Chinese made goods seems to me to be on balance a good thing. I'm sure that also depends on the goods. Buying Huawei 5G equipment? Yeah, you're probably helping the CCP. Buying a cheap wrench set at Lowes? Not so much.
	__________________ "As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law

9th December 2022, 07:10 AM	#462
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 65,297	Originally Posted by Ziggurat I'm sure that also depends on the goods. Buying Huawei 5G equipment? Yeah, you're probably helping the CCP. Buying a cheap wrench set at Lowes? Not so much. Have you been to Lowe's recently? I think it's entirely plausible that Lowe's is running a psych campaign to drive Americans mad with wrath and thereby reduce our national security. I was there on a Saturday morning and they had nobody staffing the checkouts. Hardware store. On a Saturday morning. That's like a bar sending all its staff home on St Patrick's Day, or a church giving priests Sunday off.
	__________________ You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.

9th December 2022, 07:55 AM	#463
Ziggurat Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 53,370	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey Have you been to Lowe's recently? I think it's entirely plausible that Lowe's is running a psych campaign to drive Americans mad with wrath and thereby reduce our national security. I was there on a Saturday morning and they had nobody staffing the checkouts. Hardware store. On a Saturday morning. That's like a bar sending all its staff home on St Patrick's Day, or a church giving priests Sunday off. Last time I went was back in September. Also a weekend, but I forget if it was Saturday or Sunday. Didn't have any problems. Maybe it's just local to where you live.
	__________________ "As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law

9th December 2022, 08:06 AM	#464
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 65,297	Originally Posted by Ziggurat Last time I went was back in September. Also a weekend, but I forget if it was Saturday or Sunday. Didn't have any problems. Maybe it's just local to where you live. Even China can't attack everywhere at once, I guess.
	__________________ You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.

9th December 2022, 11:39 PM	#465
Roboramma Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shanghai Posts: 15,173	Originally Posted by Ziggurat I'm sure that also depends on the goods. Buying Huawei 5G equipment? Yeah, you're probably helping the CCP. Buying a cheap wrench set at Lowes? Not so much. Yeah, good point.
	__________________ "... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together." Isaac Asimov

12th December 2022, 05:58 PM	#466
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Photo Contest Winner Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 41,409	"China has announced it will deactivate a phone app that has tracked people's movements during the pandemic. "The national app, which has been operational for three years, will go offline at the end of Monday. "It is the latest policy change that signals Beijing is abandoning its controversial zero-Covid strategy. "The move is highly symbolic but will not have a huge impact on people's daily lives because of the local apps still in use in cities across China." China to deactivate national Covid tracking app https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63941512
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

12th December 2022, 06:14 PM	#467
Roboramma Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shanghai Posts: 15,173	The shift over here over the last few days has been palpable. We're all going from worrying about getting locked down and doing covid tests every 48 hours to preparing to get covid at some point over the next couple of months. The government has suddenly ramped up vaccination efforts, and they are organizing it by apartment building. Mine did it the day before yesterday, but only for people over 60. Walking the streets in Shanghai over the last few months you'd see people lined up to get covid tests, yesterday we were out and the lines were of people getting vaccinated. Interesting times.
	__________________ "... when people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together." Isaac Asimov

12th December 2022, 06:34 PM	#468
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Photo Contest Winner Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 41,409	Originally Posted by Roboramma The shift over here over the last few days has been palpable. We're all going from worrying about getting locked down and doing covid tests every 48 hours to preparing to get covid at some point over the next couple of months. The government has suddenly ramped up vaccination efforts, and they are organizing it by apartment building. Mine did it the day before yesterday, but only for people over 60. Walking the streets in Shanghai over the last few months you'd see people lined up to get covid tests, yesterday we were out and the lines were of people getting vaccinated. Interesting times. Thanks for the update.
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

6th January 2023, 06:09 PM	#469
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,267	Take a deep breath, people, this one will shock you: https://www.voanews.com/a/taliban-se...a/6905840.html
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

6th January 2023, 06:13 PM	#470
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 63,559	LOL @ China making a deal with the Taliban for oil that even the US didn't consider worth the trouble.
	__________________ There is no Antimemetics Division.

6th January 2023, 06:53 PM	#471
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,808	The Mandate of Heaven for the current regime should have been withdrawn a long time ago.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

6th January 2023, 07:50 PM	#472
Doubt Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 7,791	Originally Posted by dudalb The Mandate of Heaven for the current regime should have been withdrawn a long time ago. Usually takes a few generations of bad emperors before the mandate goes away.
Doubt Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 7,791	__________________ 45 es un titere

7th January 2023, 02:40 AM	#473
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,267	Originally Posted by theprestige LOL @ China making a deal with the Taliban for oil that even the US didn't consider worth the trouble. I'd say it's a lot more about the Belt & Road Initiative than the amount of oil, given Xi & Bone Saws' daisy chain a month ago. Afghanistan provides a handy link between south and north in west Asia. https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/new...nfrastructure/
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

2nd February 2023, 05:06 PM	#474
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 33,267	There doesn't appear to be a word for "subtle" in Chinese. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/penta...b01e9288703321
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

2nd February 2023, 05:34 PM	#475
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: The Antimemetics Division Posts: 63,559	If it's stupid and it works... But does it work? I'd imagine US installations are already pretty good at hiding the good stuff from overhead view. Especially when they know an enemy reconnaissance platform will be flying over. What's China going to see, that isn't already on Wikipedia and Google maps? Maybe it's a SIGINT platform? Hoping to capture US military radio signatures of some kind? That they can't get from asking an expat to do some war driving? And how is the data getting back home? Long range radio transmission? That the US isn't bothering to jam? Maybe this balloon was meant to spy on the Russians. They're probably disorganized and ill equipped enough for this kind of unsubtle approach to actually yield results.
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