China

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Don't be a wally - the story is from Financial Times. Stuff re-post stories from lots of other sites.

So it was FT that ran a story about "hypersonic missiles in space"?

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

Yeah, no. That isn't the issue. Rather, I am unwilling to excuse bad behavior on the part of the CCP which has placed them in a position where most of their neighbors hate them.

What hate? lets go round their neighbors and see.

Russia: Rivals because of a somewhat contested border. A rivalry that has existed since both countries shared that border, regardless of what regime was in power in either country.

Mongolia: Playing Russia and China against each other, firmly dependent on both for virtually everything.

North Korea: Hates everybody

South Korea: Dislike due to history up to and including the Korean war, but on the other hand trading partners and at least China is keeping North Korea from collapsing, which would destroy South Korea's economy.

Japan: Dislike due to WW2 and Japan's tendency to claim the Japanese army was only in China to distribute flowers and peace, especially now that outright deniers of the genocides, rape and devastation are becoming mainstream elected politicians. Also major trading partners.

Taiwan: Here I'll give you the intense dislike, though hate is probably going too far. After all, there are a lot in Taiwan that would like the only change to be who is in power in the mainland, not what the mainland is doing with that power.

Vietnam: Intense dislike since recorded history, regardless of who is in power in either country.

Laos: Close relations with Vietnam, thus anti-China.

Myanmar : Too busy dealing with its coup and rivalries with it's other neighbors to be busy with China, though it has a lot of trade.

Bhutan: No formal relations, firmly in the Indian camp. Some disputed territory

Nepal: Playing China and India against each other to remain independent.

India: In conflict with China about who is the regional power. The current nationalistic party is fueling that happily.

Pakistan: On the one hand, China is suppressing Muslims, on the other hand, China and India are often in conflict and if there is something the Pakistani like it's anyone that dislikes India.

Afghanistan: The current rulers from Afghanistan need a lot of money, and China is perfectly willing to provide that in exchange for all those resources there.

Philippines : Slowly moving towards greater and greater cooperation with China, though some conflict over some uninhabited rocks.


Of those, only the relation with Taiwan is directly influenced by the CCP being in power. Had the nationalists won we'd be looking at a similar situation, though probably sooner as the insanity of the great leap forward and the Cultural revolution would not have happened.

[Manger Douse]

BBC News - China denies testing nuclear-capable hypersonic missile
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58953352

[The Atheist]

The white knight idea isn't going to happen for Evergrande, with a sale being called off, so it looks like it will be allowed to crash.

The theory is that it won't cause a wider collapse, so there will be plenty of eyes on other developers over the next couple of months.

[Ziggurat]

Alternatively maybe the theory is that collapse is inevitable, and bailing them out now just delays it and makes it worse when it arrives. Hard to tell what the CCP is really thinking.

The problems with Chinese real estate go far, far beyond Evergrande. A reckoning is inevitable, prices are far, far too high. Chinese property values are significantly higher than US property values, and that frankly makes no sense. It cannot continue.

[The Atheist]

Hmmm... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59133027

"Stockpile essential food!"

and

"Do not be alarmed" don't fit together too well.

[The Atheist]

I'll just add - I'm registered at Alibaba as both importer and exporter and get quite a few enquiries on both ends.

It's interesting to note the rise and fall of Chinese companies wanting to export. Most of the time, they're busy enough to not need to cold call, but right now, it looks like every Chinese manufacturer is actively seeking new outlets.

I've sent Roboramma a PM to see if he knows anything about the current state of business.

[The Atheist]

This is a very dirty tactic: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59486286

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Hmmm... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59133027

"Stockpile essential food!"

and

"Do not be alarmed" don't fit together too well.

I dunno. Hedging against risk tends to lower my alarm levels substantially.

[dudalb]

I think , to use a example from the history of the Soviet Union, that the CPP Is rethinking it's version of the New Economic Policy of the Soviets in the 1920's...allowing some private enterprise in Russia. THis was reversed by Stalin who went full scale "State Controls Everything/Command Economy" mode. It did not turn out well for Russia

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dudalb

I think , to use a example from the history of the Soviet Union, that the CPP Is rethinking it's version of the New Economic Policy of the Soviets in the 1920's...allowing some private enterprise in Russia. THis was reversed by Stalin who went full scale "State Controls Everything/Command Economy" mode. It did not turn out well for Russia

There's no doubt their model has been a raging success - they've gone from basket-case to challenging US supremacy economically, and soon to be military, in less than half a century.

They'd be the ideal world role model if it weren't for those pesky human rights abuses, imperial expansion, corruption, etc.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

There's no doubt their model has been a raging success - they've gone from basket-case to challenging US supremacy economically, and soon to be military, in less than half a century.

They'd be the ideal world role model if it weren't for those pesky human rights abuses, imperial expansion, corruption, etc.

I wouldn’t call it a raging success. The thing to keep in mind is not only how far they have come, but also how far they could have come, had they done things differently. Compare their progress to, say, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and I’d say they’re well behind where they could be.

In other words, I think those pesky human rights abuses, corruption, etc. came at a cost.

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

I wouldn’t call it a raging success. The thing to keep in mind is not only how far they have come, but also how far they could have come, had they done things differently. Compare their progress to, say, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and I’d say they’re well behind where they could be.

In other words, I think those pesky human rights abuses, corruption, etc. came at a cost.

Is that a really fair comparison though?
Both Hong Kong and Taiwan are tiny compared to China, and both got massive investments from rich countries (the UK and US resp.), whereas China is huge, was totally war-ravaged and had a series of wars since then.
Perhaps it's better to compare them to Brazil or India, in which case they did semi ok economically. Corruption in those two countries is pretty comparable and only India does better in human rights (for now).

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser

Is that a really fair comparison though?

No, for exactly the reasons you gave.

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Actually, come to think of it, the best comparison would be Russia.
Both are countries that transformed communism into a form of oligarchy.
Both have pretty similar levels of corruption and human rights abuses and both have to deal with the consequences of bad economic decisions from the 1940's to the late 1980's.

On the surface at least it seems China is doing better than Russia in that regard.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser

Is that a really fair comparison though?
Both Hong Kong and Taiwan are tiny compared to China, and both got massive investments from rich countries (the UK and US resp.), whereas China is huge, was totally war-ravaged and had a series of wars since then.

The wars China engaged in since WW2 were voluntary. Hell, so was their civil war (which also had a strong negative impact on Taiwan). And the lack of foreign investment in China before the 80's was largely due to their choices. Why did Taiwan get more foreign investment than China did? That wasn't chance, that's a direct consequence of choices.

Rural China could not have developed to the level of Hong Kong. But coastal China could have gotten much closer than they did. The point of comparing China to Taiwan and Hong Kong is because they're culturally and geographically comparable. You can't say their success was due to natural resources or an educated population that China lacked. China had all the same necessary prerequisites.

Quote:

Perhaps it's better to compare them to Brazil or India, in which case they did semi ok economically. Corruption in those two countries is pretty comparable and only India does better in human rights (for now).

Corruption in those two countries is why doing better than them isn't much of an accomplishment.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

I wouldn’t call it a raging success. The thing to keep in mind is not only how far they have come, but also how far they could have come, had they done things differently. Compare their progress to, say, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and I’d say they’re well behind where they could be.

Evidence?

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

The wars China engaged in since WW2 were voluntary. Hell, so was their civil war (which also had a strong negative impact on Taiwan). And the lack of foreign investment in China before the 80's was largely due to their choices. Why did Taiwan get more foreign investment than China did? That wasn't chance, that's a direct consequence of choices.

Rural China could not have developed to the level of Hong Kong. But coastal China could have gotten much closer than they did. The point of comparing China to Taiwan and Hong Kong is because they're culturally and geographically comparable. You can't say their success was due to natural resources or an educated population that China lacked. China had all the same necessary prerequisites.



Corruption in those two countries is why doing better than them isn't much of an accomplishment.

Because of cold war policies. No communist threat, no need for investment to stick it to the commies.
And let's not forget that the reason mainland China went communist was because the Kuomingtang was even more inept economically, socially and military.
So had they won by some miracle, there is no evidence China would be better off.
Sure, no Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution, but a continuation of the warlords era with it's constant warfare.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser

Because of cold war policies. No communist threat, no need for investment to stick it to the commies.
And let's not forget that the reason mainland China went communist was because the Kuomingtang was even more inept economically, socially and military.
So had they won by some miracle, there is no evidence China would be better off.

Well, no, there is evidence. Considerable evidence, starting with Taiwan. They took over Taiwan. And in the long run, Taiwan has done far, far better than mainland China.

But even supposing you're right about what would have happened with the Kuomingtang, you're still comparing what the CCP accomplished to what you think would have been a disaster. Not being worse than a disaster isn't an indication of actual success. That's setting the bar far too low.

Quote:

Sure, no Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution

You're underselling one of history's greatest slaughters.

[Roboramma]

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser

Because of cold war policies. No communist threat, no need for investment to stick it to the commies.
And let's not forget that the reason mainland China went communist was because the Kuomingtang was even more inept economically, socially and military.

Personally I think this had something to do with it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second..._and_aftermath

Quote:

However, the Soviet occupation of Manchuria was long enough to allow the Communist forces to move in en masse and arm themselves with the military hardware surrendered by the Imperial Japanese Army, quickly establish control in the countryside and move into position to encircle the Nationalist government army in major cities of northeast China.

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

Well, no, there is evidence. Considerable evidence, starting with Taiwan. They took over Taiwan. And in the long run, Taiwan has done far, far better than mainland China.

But even supposing you're right about what would have happened with the Kuomingtang, you're still comparing what the CCP accomplished to what you think would have been a disaster. Not being worse than a disaster isn't an indication of actual success. That's setting the bar far too low.



You're underselling one of history's greatest slaughters.

Yes, and Taiwan got MASSIVE investments from the US in order to stop the Reds, which came with strings attached, and as mentioned before, Taiwan is way smaller and easier to control.
No Reds, no investments, so if the KMT had won the civil war that money would not have been there for them.

As I said, a far better comparison would be Russia, which went full capitalist in the 90's.

[The Great Zaganza]

Remember that until Nixon, mainland China was cut off from most of the diplomatic and economic world.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser

Yes, and Taiwan got MASSIVE investments from the US in order to stop the Reds, which came with strings attached, and as mentioned before, Taiwan is way smaller and easier to control.
No Reds, no investments, so if the KMT had won the civil war that money would not have been there for them.

As I said, a far better comparison would be Russia, which went full capitalist in the 90's.

You are conflating investment with foreign military aid. They aren’t the same. Military aid to stop the reds was spent on military equipment and personnel. That doesn’t little to nothing to increase economic development. The investment in Taiwan (which does promote economic development) wasn’t to stop the reds, but to make money. And that was possible because Taiwan was worth investing in. China wasn’t worth investing in, because your investment wouldn’t be protected, and wouldn’t make any money.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Remember that until Nixon, mainland China was cut off from most of the diplomatic and economic world.

Yes. And that was a predictable response to the choices they made. The CCP were not some innocent victim in all of this.

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by Ziggurat

Yes. And that was a predictable response to the choices they made. The CCP were not some innocent victim in all of this.

No one said they were.

But it explains the lag before Mainland managed to catch up to Taiwan, and it was not because only Western Capitalist countries can prosper.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

No one said they were.

But it explains the lag before Mainland managed to catch up to Taiwan, and it was not because only Western Capitalist countries can prosper.

They haven't caught up to Taiwan. They may never.

But you're right, not only Western Capitalist countries can prosper. Eastern capitalist countries can prosper too. Commies? Not so much.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

No one said they were.

But it explains the lag before Mainland managed to catch up to Taiwan, and it was not because only Western Capitalist countries can prosper.

Plese note that China got properous after then went semi Capitialist.
Command Economies Just Don't Work very well..and a lot of people on the left just hate that fact.
And one habit of progressives I don't like is the way they seem to knee jerk defend ANY country whose government they view as being on the left.

[AcesHigh]

Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser

Perhaps it's better to compare them to Brazil or India, in which case they did semi ok economically. Corruption in those two countries is pretty comparable

are you using some corruption index?

Quote:

and only India does better in human rights (for now).

whats your source for that?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World

in this ranking, both are quite similarly positioned, but Brazil does slightly better (it shows Brazil losing lots of positions since 2014... I found no data they use to justify it however)
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/ran...ule_law_index/


if you go here, Brazil scores better in gender, racial equity and religious freedom...
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/data-explorer#{%22mode%22:%22graph%22,%22year%22:2021,% 22axes%22:{%22y%22:{%22name%22:%22Racial%20equity% 20Score%22,%22key%22:%22racial_equity%22,%22type%2 2:%22score%22}},%22selected%22:[%22BRA%22,%22IND%22]}

[The Atheist]

Xi and the CCP keep getting more determined to turn the people into mindless robots who want the government to micro-manage their lives.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59827047

[Roboramma]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Xi and the CCP keep getting more determined to turn the people into mindless robots who want the government to micro-manage their lives.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59827047

This stood out to me a bit:

Quote:

In Chinese culture a stigma has been attached to tattoos - in the past they were used to brand criminals and the tattoo still has links to organised crime groups in east Asia. Tattoos among ethnic groups were often seen as a mark of the uncivilised.

This makes it sound like China is special in this regard. But think about it, you could say the same thing about a stigma about tattoos in the west, and that they have historically been linked to organized crime. My experience here is that tattoos are extremely common, much as they are around the world, and not looked on as strange in any way.

But maybe the plan is to change that.

[The Atheist]

When Chinese diplomacy bites the recipient in the arse:

Quote:

The president of debt-ridden Sri Lanka has asked China for the restructuring of its loans and access to preferential credit for imports of essential goods, as the island nation struggles in the throes of its worst economic crisis, partly due to Beijing-financed projects that don’t generate revenue.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/3...conomic-crisis

[The Atheist]

Nice to see that among all the islands cosying up to China's renminbi diplomacy, the outstanding PM of Samoa gave them a complete snub at a China-sponsored Foreign Ministers' meeting. Fiame Naomi Mata’afa is also Foreign Minister of Samoa and instead of attending herself, sent the office girl.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...iness-of-china

I said when she was elected that I expect her to be the best PM Samoa has ever had, and this is an excellent start.

[The Atheist]

Looks like the long arms of China are well and truly entrenched in America.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300...-us-university

[The Atheist]

As Putin cuts his own throat with an idiotic war, Xi might just be doing the same, with his own war. On covid.

He pretty much tied his reputation to zero covid, and it's failing, even as all of Shanghai gets locked down, something they'd been trying very hard not to do.

It's going to be a serious loss of face when he has to admit failure, and I wonder if it's going to encourage the congress to put him out to retire.

Might be someone worse!

[Venom]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Xi and the CCP keep getting more determined to turn the people into mindless robots who want the government to micro-manage their lives.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59827047

One thing that annoys me about East Asian countries is their zombie-like trust in heavy-handed authoritarian government. Yes killing drug users, okay, ethnic cleansing against a particular group--Oh they're full of gangsters and criminals anyway. Protest? Oh stop being an annoying parasite and stfu.

At least they follow the rules during epidemics.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Venom

One thing that annoys me about East Asian countries is their zombie-like trust in heavy-handed authoritarian government.

Since Tienanmen Square I think it's fear rather than trust.

[Roboramma]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Since Tienanmen Square I think it's fear rather than trust.

I think it's a complicated mixture of both.

[dudalb]

Reports that China did some cyber attqcks against Ukraine right before the invasion.
If proven too, time to put heavily sanction China as an accomplaice to war crimes.

[The Atheist]

Kevin Rudd, or possibly Fozzie Bear = not sure which, thanks to the video accompanying the article - is deeply concerned about China in the South Pacific.

I won't mention China's new removal of tariffs from NZ wood products just yet.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/04/03/d...ge-kevin-rudd/

[Lukraak_Sisser]

This whole situation must be China's wet dream come true.

Russia is showing that it's army is both badly equipped and trained, and will have lost a significant amount of men and materiel in a pointless war, that will likely mean it will also have to keep an occupying army in Ukraine, creating an Afghanistan type scenario.
So if China were to press some claims in Siberia or wants to vassalise Mongolia, it's clear Russia is not able to retaliate in a conventional way.

The economies of the EU countries are going to be in shambles, possibly this will hit the US a bit too so people will want cheap stuff, which will most likely stop a lot of the actions of trying to pressure China on worker's rights.

Russia's economy is going to be shattered and will be sanctioned, so China can buy things from Russia at a discount due to Russia's weak position.
And then it can either use them for itself, sell at a nice profit to the EU or use as a bargaining chip with African countries, which are also being hit by the rising food prices.