Continuation The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 4

[marting]

Quote:

This is then used to genuinely argue that at a vitamin D concentration of ~50ng/ml there is a theoretical point of zero mortality

I remember seeing that study and thinking extrapolating a linear regression to 50ng/ml meant no mortality was rather funny. Found the correlation with increased D levels interesting but that's been known for a long time. Correlation isn't causation. But it is a reason to investigate the correlation. Haven't seen anything really good that has done that. There was a "natural experiment" over a year ago in French nursing homes which looked promising. They were supposed to have expanded their work with results earlier this year but I didn't see anything. Pretty typical when something doesn't pan out. They just ghost.

[marting]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Yeah, there were some good explanations of how they analyszed the patient data, some of it was subtle such as the trailing digit analysis, which I had not heard of before,

I've run across that sort of thing in forensic accounting. We are lucky so many fraudsters skipped their stats classes.

[marting]

Some new details on transmissibility of Delta for fully vaccinated.

OVID vaccines cut the risk of transmitting Delta — but not for long

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y

Quote:

The authors found that although the vaccines did offer some protection against infection and onward transmission, Delta dampened that effect. A person who was fully vaccinated and then had a ‘breakthrough’ Delta infection was almost twice as likely to pass on the virus as someone who was infected with Alpha. And that was on top of the higher risk of having a breakthrough infection caused by Delta than one caused by Alpha.
...
“There’s a step-change with Alpha versus Delta, but then there’s also a change over time,” says co-author David Eyre, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford, UK. The results “possibly explain why we’ve seen so much onward transmission of Delta despite widespread vaccination”

This is how you spell endemic. We all have a date with Delta. Get vaccinated.

[marting]

CDC has started reporting vaccine breakthrough cases with time, demographics and vaccinated/unvaccinated comparisons. 16 jurisdictions representing 30% of the USA population report the underlying data. Includes cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Info consistent with other recent studies.

Overall datatracker
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...tatracker-home

Vaccine effectiveness
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...-effectiveness

[Bob001]

So booster shots for Pfizer have been approved, and boosters for Moderna and J&J are expected to be approved soon. Question: So if we need -- or at least would benefit from -- a booster six to eight months after the original vaccination, what happens later? Will we need a covid booster every year, or maybe even twice a year?

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Bob001

So booster shots for Pfizer have been approved, and boosters for Moderna and J&J are expected to be approved soon. Question: So if we need -- or at least would benefit from -- a booster six to eight months after the original vaccination, what happens later? Will we need a covid booster every year, or maybe even twice a year?

I'd say that the short answer is that we don't know yet. It's very plausible that those most at risk will need such, but once it becomes endemic, general risks will likely decline.

On a quick look, Nature has an article that goes more in depth on this issue, either way.

The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means
A Nature survey shows many scientists expect the virus that causes COVID-19 to become endemic, but it could pose less danger over time.

[Puppycow]

COVID super-immunity: one of the pandemic’s great puzzles

[Puppycow]

Does anyone remember the study out of Israel that was mentioned in Science that concluded that natural immunity was about 13 times better than vaccine immunity?

Anyway, I just saw this critique of it and the issue of "survivorship bias" came up. I'm not sure I fully grok it, but here's the food for thought:

https://echo360.org/media/df6327b6-1...aedef8e/public

[marting]

Interesting paper on the scientific discourse around aerosol v droplet/fomite transmission as interpretted by Pierre Bourdieu's sociological views.

Orthodoxy, illusio, and playing the scientific game: a Bourdieusian analysis of infection control science in the COVID-19 pandemic

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-126

Quote:

Scientific and policy bodies’ failure to acknowledge and act on the evidence base for airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a timely way is both a mystery and a scandal. In this study, we applied theories from Bourdieu to address the question, “How was a partial and partisan scientific account of SARS-CoV-2 transmission constructed and maintained, leading to widespread imposition of infection control policies which de-emphasised airborne transmission?”.

[Puppycow]

Update on the current situation in Japan:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Infections peaked here at 183/million in late August, but have decreased a lot since then and are now only 4/million. That's almost 98% down from the peak. Remains to be seen if there will be a rebound, but I'm not yet seeing signs of a rebound.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

I would imagine that logically, there will likely be a rebound like they had in Israel, since it won't go to zero.

One difference though is that everyone here is still masking (but they were masking during the last wave too, so maybe that doesn't make a huge difference).

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Update on the current situation in Japan:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Infections peaked here at 183/million in late August, but have decreased a lot since then and are now only 4/million. That's almost 98% down from the peak. Remains to be seen if there will be a rebound, but I'm not yet seeing signs of a rebound.

https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html

I would imagine that logically, there will likely be a rebound like they had in Israel, since it won't go to zero.

One difference though is that everyone here is still masking (but they were masking during the last wave too, so maybe that doesn't make a huge difference).

I think it could be masking+vaccine (following the state of emergency) which has brought the numbers down.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Infections peaked here at 183/million in late August, but have decreased a lot since then and are now only 4/million. That's almost 98% down from the peak. Remains to be seen if there will be a rebound, but I'm not yet seeing signs of a rebound.

I think I might have to resurrect the Territorial Anomaly thread, because what's happened in Japan is really surprising.

Are people still travelling crammed in trains, etc?

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I think I might have to resurrect the Territorial Anomaly thread, because what's happened in Japan is really surprising.

Are people still travelling crammed in trains, etc?

I usually take the busiest Osaka subway line during rush hour, and I would say that the trains are still pretty crowded although not to the extent of the white-gloved guys cramming people into the carriage.

What you will definitely see is approximately 100% of passengers wearing masks, including kids. There may occasionally be a single person in a train car without one, but from leaving my house to getting to work, almost everyone I see is masked, and yes, that includes people driving in their cars, people on bicycles etc...

I don't necessarily think the masking is making the whole difference but it might be symptomatic of the caution people are taking with the virus. I am pretty sure that vaccination rates have made a huge difference, and then combined with strictly adhered to baseline policies of masking, and following the 3 Cs has had an impact.

[marting]

New preprint study on Puerto Rico where they apparently have kept track of vaccinations, dates, and covid cases unlike all too many States in the USA. Puerto Rico is a USA territory.

Time-varying effectiveness of the mRNA-1273, BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths: an analysis based on observational data from Puerto Rico

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....17.21265101v1

Quote:

Background We collected hospitalization, death, and vaccination status data for all 86,488 laboratory- confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in Puerto Rico since the first COVID-19 vaccine was administered starting on December 15, 2020 and ending September 24, 2021. Using these data we estimated real-world time-varying effectiveness of the mRNA-1273 (Moderna), BNT162b2 (Pfizer), and Ad26.COV2.S (J & J) COVID-19 vaccines to quantify the public health benefits of Puerto Rico's immunization campaign.
...
After four months, effectiveness waned to about 73%, 58%, and 32% for mRNA-1273, BNT162b2, and Ad26.COV2.S, respectively. All vaccines had a lower effectiveness for those over 85 years, with the decrease in effectiveness particularly low for the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine.
...
We found no clear evidence that effectiveness was different after the Delta variant became dominant.

Oh, and I especially appreciate them making the data (and program to reconstruct the report) on Github. https://github.com/rafalab/vax-eff-pr

dat_vax.rda includes de-indentified vacination information: age strata, gender, vaccine manufacturer and date of doses

dat_cases_vax.rda includes de-indentified information for SARS-CoV-2. It incldues date of infection, age strata, gender, hospitalization (logical), hospitalization date, death (logical), date of death, date of dose 1, date of dose 2, and vaccine manufacturer.

population-tabs.rda includes estimates of population size by age.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I think I might have to resurrect the Territorial Anomaly thread, because what's happened in Japan is really surprising.

Are people still travelling crammed in trains, etc?

I took a train to work this morning, and it was not exactly "crammed". Quite full, yes, but not like some of those old-timey videos you see where the conductors had to give people a push in order to close the doors. Now you have some personal space.

More train lines have been built, and the demographic trends are toward fewer working people. And also now it is possible for some people to work from home.

At my company most people were working from home during the state of emergency, which ended at the end of September.

After the state of emergency ended, Tokyo went to "rebound prevention measures", which is like a lighter version of the state of emergency. Now, whereas I had been working from home every day during the state of emergency, I commute 2 days out of 5, and work from home on the other days. The "rebound prevention measures" are scheduled to expire on October 24th. Then, assuming they aren't extended, I think we will go to commuting 4 days/week and working at home on 1 day.

ETA: also, they ventilate the trains pretty well. Either several windows are open in each car, or for some new models, I think they have a direct ventilation system.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I took a train to work this morning, and it was not exactly "crammed". Quite full, yes, but not like some of those old-timey videos you see where the conductors had to give people a push in order to close the doors. Now you have some personal space.

More train lines have been built, and the demographic trends are toward fewer working people. And also now it is possible for some people to work from home.

At my company most people were working from home during the state of emergency, which ended at the end of September.

After the state of emergency ended, Tokyo went to "rebound prevention measures", which is like a lighter version of the state of emergency. Now, whereas I had been working from home every day during the state of emergency, I commute 2 days out of 5, and work from home on the other days. The "rebound prevention measures" are scheduled to expire on October 24th. Then, assuming they aren't extended, I think we will go to commuting 4 days/week and working at home on 1 day.

Yeah, I am glad that Japan has finally got its act together with working from home and using tech to enable that. One of the big issues at the beginning of the pandemic were that paperwork mostly had to be literally stamped with a hanko (name deal) and many students had no access to computers, teachers and professors didn’t know how to use them and were blindsided by the idea that they would have to change their teaching style from chalk and talk, and handing out endless worksheets for marking to suddenly having to use digital content. Two years in and finally university students now have their own laptops and are not relying on the family’s ancient desktop and internet explorer, etc…

[The Atheist]

That tends to look like a careful population being very careful.

Sensible option. Pity the rest of the world will completely ignore it.

Thanks guys!

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

That tends to look like a careful population being very careful.

Sensible option. Pity the rest of the world will completely ignore it.

Thanks guys!

Originally Posted by Puppycow

ETA: also, they ventilate the trains pretty well. Either several windows are open in each car, or for some new models, I think they have a direct ventilation system.

Yeah, speaking of that, it does seem that whereas the "washing your hands" thing seemed to be a big talking point in the UK and elsewhere, Japan was treating it as an airborne-ish disease from pretty early on. The 3 Cs of trying to avoid crowded places, confined spaces and close-contact settings seems to have worked pretty well, so while the trains are still pretty crowded they are a) ventilated and b) people just don't tend to talk on them. So that means while it violates one of the three Cs it doesn't violate the other two, and it is when you have them overlapping that the risks apparently increase.

[Puppycow]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...latestinsights

Quote:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights
A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.

19 October 2021

Their bottom line seems to be that "Two vaccine doses give similar protection as previous infection".

Similar protection to natural immunity, but without having the disease and without the possibility of spreading it to others.

Neither previous infection nor vaccines offer complete immunity.

[The Atheist]

Up to 30/4/21, UK had had 4.4M cases of Covid, with 127,500 deaths.

Since 1 May, they've had 4.1M cases, but only 11,000 deaths.

Pretty stark evidence of the success of vaccines, even though their rate isn't particularly high.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Up to 30/4/21, UK had had 4.4M cases of Covid, with 127,500 deaths.

Since 1 May, they've had 4.1M cases, but only 11,000 deaths.

Pretty stark evidence of the success of vaccines, even though their rate isn't particularly high.

Yes, exactly. The UK needs to get on and up its vaccination game. As I pointed out in another thread, I said this on Facebook and a friend of mine accused me of "panicking" (sound familiar? ). I'm not calling for panic. I am calling for a rational response to an increasing public health risk. Just get vaccinated!

[dann]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Similar protection to natural immunity, but without having the disease and without the possibility of spreading it to others.

Not quite, but it does appear to lower the risk even if you have a breakthrough infection.

[Chris_Halkides]

Ivermectin taken to prevent or treat COVID-19 led to toxic effects, including severe episodes of confusion, ataxia, seizures, and hypotension, a small observational study showed.

Of 21 callers to the Oregon Poison Center in August -- including 11 people who said they used ivermectin to prevent COVID-19 and 10 who used the drug to treat COVID symptoms -- six were hospitalized for toxic effects from ivermectin use, reported Robert Hendrickson, MD, of Oregon Health and Science University in Portland, and co-authors in the New England Journal of Medicine. MedPageToday

[The Atheist]

I noticed a couple of days ago that the downward trend of Covid cases was starting to curve, and the world total 7-day average is now increasing for the first time in months.It looks very much like Europe is headed for another wave, as UK and Russia record high figures.

Pretty well all Euro nations are seeing an increase in infections, and even countries with very high vaccine/prior infection rates are starting to see a rise in cases - Denmark and Czechia are two in that category and Czechia's infections are ten times higher now than they were just a couple of months ago.

Possibly seeing the start of the Israel effect across Europe, and third-shot boosters are under way.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...urge-across-eu

[marting]

Genomic and epidemiological study of the highly vaccinated Provincetown covid outbreak demonstrates multiple tranmssions from fully vaccinated to fully vaccinated.

Evidence of transmission from fully vaccinated individuals in a large outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Provincetown

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...137v1.full.pdf

Quote:

Due to the small number of unvaccinated cases in our dataset, we were unable to meaningfully compare rates of secondary transmission by vaccination status (Figure S10). We did note that among vaccinated individuals there were no identified asymptomatic index cases

[Puppycow]

Pfizer/BioNTech press release (on a study of booster shots):

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...l-data-showing

Quote:

All trial participants previously completed the primary two-dose series of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, and then were randomized 1:1 to receive either a 30-µg booster dose (the same dosage strength as those in the primary series) or placebo. The median time between second dose and administration of the booster dose or placebo was approximately 11 months. Symptomatic COVID-19 occurrence was measured from at least 7 days after booster or placebo, with a median follow-up of 2.5 months. During the study period, there were 5 cases of COVID-19 in the booster group, and 109 cases in the non-boosted group. The observed relative vaccine efficacy of 95.6% (95% CI: 89.3, 98.6) reflects the reduction in disease occurrence in the boosted group versus the non-boosted group in those without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Median age of participants was 53 years, with 55.5% of participants between 16 and 55 years, and 23.3% of participants 65 years and older. Multiple subgroup analyses showed efficacy was consistent irrespective of age, sex, race, ethnicity, or comorbid conditions.

It's both good news and bad news in a way, as it also shows (confirms) that the effectiveness of the initial two dose regimen wanes considerably in less than a year.

I seem to recall that some data showed longer-lasting efficacy for the Moderna vaccine, which is a 100 mcg. dose, vs. only 30 mcg. for Pfizer.

I don't know how solid that actually is, however.

Moderna COVID-19 vaccine generates long-lasting immune memory

This is a different sort of study.

Quote:

The study examined 35 participants enrolled in a phase 1 clinical trial of the Moderna vaccine. They had received two 25-microgram injections—a quarter of the standard dose authorized for emergency use by the FDA.

The team assessed antibody and T cell levels after the first and second doses, and again six months later. They measured two subsets of T cells: CD8+ T cells, or “killer” T cells, which destroy virus-infected cells, and CD4+ T cells, “helper” T cells involved in antibody production.

Levels of antibodies, CD4+ T cells, and CD8+ T cells remained strong six months after receiving the vaccine. This was found even among participants over 70 years of age, who are particularly vulnerable to severe COVID-19. Memory CD4+ T cells were still present in nearly everyone six months after full vaccination. Memory CD8+ T cells were detected in 67% of participants six months after full vaccination. Until this study, it was uncertain whether the Moderna vaccine elicited these memory T cells.

The team also found that the vaccine generated similar immune memory against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to that of natural infection. Levels of antibodies, CD4+ T cells, and CD8+ T cells six months after vaccination were comparable to those in recovered individuals.

N=35. Not really a large enough sample size.

ETA: here's more what I was looking for: a comparison

Moderna vaccine provides better long term protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation than Pfizer: CDC study

Quote:

CDC researchers conducted an analysis of nearly 3,689 adults who were hospitalized with severe Covid from 11 March to 15 August 2021 — a period that precedes and includes the dominance of the Delta variant.

Overall, 12.9 percent were fully vaccinated with the Moderna vaccine, 20.0 percent were vaccinated with Pfizer-BioNTech, and 3.1 percent were vaccinated with Johnson & Johnson.

Over the entire period, the Moderna vaccine was 93 percent effective against hospitalization, Pfizer was 88 percent effective, and J&J was 68 percent effective.

The loss of efficacy against hospitalization for Pfizer was particularly pronounced: it fell from 91 percent in 14-120 days after vaccination to 77 percent more than 120 days after vaccination.

By contrast, Moderna fell from 93 percent to 92 percent when comparing the same two periods.

So yeah, I would like to get Moderna next time. It's already been about 2 months for me. I assume I'm still pretty well protected.

[Chris_Halkides]

I put a link to an article about the use of N-1 methylpseudouridine within a Covid-19 vaccine into the Covid-19 thread in conspiracies and conspiracy theories. Link to comment.

[marting]

The SARS-CoV-2 main protease Mpro causes microvascular brain pathology by cleaving NEMO in brain endothelial cells

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41593-021-00926-1

Quote:

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can damage cerebral small vessels and cause neurological symptoms. Here we describe structural changes in cerebral small vessels of patients with COVID-19 and elucidate potential mechanisms underlying the vascular pathology.

[Puppycow]

Video about the situation in the UK, from the ZOE project. They do a weekly video.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

Currently, about 25% of the cases are in those who have had (at least) 2 doses of the vaccine. Deaths averaging 223/day (no breakdown of how many of those were fully vaccinated).

Some data about breakthrough infections among those who were previously infected but not vaccinated: their protection is around 65% (around 16 minutes into the video), which is actually lower than that for both of the vaccines used there (UK is mainly AZ and Pfizer), but the immunity does seem to fade over time whether it's from previous infection or from vaccination. Nothing magical about "natural immunity". However, a previous infection plus vaccination does increase the protection to 90% for AZ and 94% for Pfizer. So, it would indicate that there is a significant benefit to vaccination even for those who were previously infected.

The bad news is that the virus keeps evolving into more and more contagious variants. They are still within the main category of Delta, but there are new sub-variants within Delta.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Video about the situation in the UK, from the ZOE project. They do a weekly video.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

Currently, about 25% of the cases are in those who have had (at least) 2 doses of the vaccine. Deaths averaging 223/day (no breakdown of how many of those were fully vaccinated).

Some data about breakthrough infections among those who were previously infected but not vaccinated: their protection is around 65% (around 16 minutes into the video), which is actually lower than that for both of the vaccines used there (UK is mainly AZ and Pfizer), but the immunity does seem to fade over time whether it's from previous infection or from vaccination. Nothing magical about "natural immunity". However, a previous infection plus vaccination does increase the protection to 90% for AZ and 94% for Pfizer. So, it would indicate that there is a significant benefit to vaccination even for those who were previously infected.

The bad news is that the virus keeps evolving into more and more contagious variants. They are still within the main category of Delta, but there are new sub-variants within Delta.

I am a bit confused about the numbers here. He says 80,000 cases and deaths at 220 a day.

This seems slightly higher than I have heard so far. I thought it was around 50,000 and somewhere around 150 a day.

Not much different of course, but slighly higher than I expected.

Again, I have been trying to tell my friends and family in the UK and they really seem pretty blase about this.

And re:the highlighted, yes, this is such an obvious issue with people getting infected and underlines why it is so important to get vaccinated.

[sphenisc]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

I am a bit confused about the numbers here. He says 80,000 cases and deaths at 220 a day.

This seems slightly higher than I have heard so far. I thought it was around 50,000 and somewhere around 150 a day.

223 was the 'daily deaths' for October 19th, but that's a bit of an outlier in the last week's data.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by sphenisc

223 was the 'daily deaths' for October 19th, but that's a bit of an outlier in the last week's data.

Yeah, I thought there was something wrong with that. I do know that recently it went up that high for a particular day, but I think it was a Tuesday, and apparently Tuesday is a bad Covid day (they count up the people who died on the weekend then), so saying 223 people are dying a day is a bit too alarmist.

...that said, it is probably only a bit alarmist.

I think if the UK don't get serious about this, that includes the ******* "government" but also the public who seem to be happy to swan around with no masks, and with...well...fairly high but not brilliant vaccination rates, then the UK is going to be in serious trouble over the winter.

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

I am a bit confused about the numbers here. He says 80,000 cases and deaths at 220 a day.

This seems slightly higher than I have heard so far. I thought it was around 50,000 and somewhere around 150 a day.

The ZOE figures for daily cases are extrapolated from the daily reports of the people using the app, as opposed to the official daily figures which are actual positive tests (and therefore lower than the real number, since not everyone is being tested). Another thing is that the official government figures are only counting new cases, so if you get a second infection that is not counted; I'm not sure if ZOE includes those in their daily total or not.

[Ulf Nereng]

Imagine the outcry if muslim terrorists murdered 150 elderly peope every day...

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

This seems slightly higher than I have heard so far. I thought it was around 50,000 and somewhere around 150 a day.

It's only about double 'flu on a bad day, and it will decrease. If it weren't for that questionable total of 223 last week I think it already would be. I'm not sure why UK's case rate remains so stubbornly high.

I'm actually pretty in favour of doing what the Poms have done. Florida let it go and it died out pretty quickly, with minimal attempts to slow it, and lots of US states are the same. Singapore, with a similar climate to the southern US states, is an interesting watch.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng

Imagine the outcry if muslim terrorists murdered 150 elderly peope every day...

Mate, you're better than that comment.

You may as well ask why UK allows 175 people a day to die of heart disease. Vaccines have been given to those who want them.
_______________________________

If anyone has stats on the age demographic of Covid deaths since June/July this year, let 'er rip!

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'm not sure why UK's case rate remains so stubbornly high.

NBC News had an article that discusses that a bit.

New variant? No masks? Here's what's driving the U.K.'s latest Covid surge
The British government has been urged to "act now" in the midst of a rise in cases or "regret it later."

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

It's only about double 'flu on a bad day, and it will decrease. If it weren't for that questionable total of 223 last week I think it already would be. I'm not sure why UK's case rate remains so stubbornly high.

I'm actually pretty in favour of doing what the Poms have done. Florida let it go and it died out pretty quickly, with minimal attempts to slow it, and lots of US states are the same. Singapore, with a similar climate to the southern US states, is an interesting watch.B]

Twice a bad flu day before flu season really kicks in? That’s bad. NHS could become overwhelmed with quickly which means there would be more other preventable deaths as patients go untreated.

I am not in favour of what the Poms are doing and why this is happening is no mystery at all. The vaccination rates are not high enough to prevent a lot of infections to begin with but there seem to be almost no precautions taken, no mask wearing except for some of the more sensible members of the public such as those Poms on the forum, full capacity stadiums, crowded indoor venues without masks etc…. You couldn’t do much more to spread the virus if you tried.

Winter is coming and with it yet another wave.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by sphenisc

223 was the 'daily deaths' for October 19th, but that's a bit of an outlier in the last week's data.

Interesting. I double-checked to make sure that I didn't mishear that, and he did use the word "averaging". But it seems that is only the figure for a single day, and as angrysoba says, certain days of the week tend to have higher figures because of a reporting lag over the weekend. This is why I prefer a 7-day average to any single day.

Originally Posted by Aridas

NBC News had an article that discusses that a bit.

New variant? No masks? Here's what's driving the U.K.'s latest Covid surge
The British government has been urged to "act now" in the midst of a rise in cases or "regret it later."

I hate to bring up Japan again, and not to pick on the UK, but for whatever reason, the level is much lower here. Maybe because "Freedom Day" happened much earlier in the UK than here. But new cases are now below 500/day in a country with over twice the UK's population, and a higher median age, and deaths are averaging 15/day over the last week. There are less than 5,000 active cases and a bit over 200 critically ill.

I think that small differences like mask-wearing can add up to big differences over time, because everything gets compounded with each subsequent generation of the virus. A slightly higher effective reproduction rate, for example.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Aridas

NBC News had an article that discusses that a bit.

I'm sure the waning of protection is a big thing, because Israel had the same track until they introduced restrictions again.

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Twice a bad flu day before flu season really kicks in? That’s bad. NHS could become overwhelmed with quickly which means there would be more other preventable deaths as patients go untreated.

It's possible, but I really do think the Covid numbers will begin to fall very soon.

Originally Posted by angrysoba

The vaccination rates are not high enough...

That's a big point, too. It shows that 70% just isn't enough. In UK, that leaves 18M or more unprotected.

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I think that small differences like mask-wearing can add up to big differences over time, because everything gets compounded with each subsequent generation of the virus. A slightly higher effective reproduction rate, for example.

Masks are definitely a key factor. We've had millions of potential infection points at supermarkets and haven't had a single case.

[Carrot Flower King]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'm not sure why UK's case rate remains so stubbornly high.

Let me introduce you to our useless shower of **** that calls itself a government, led by a lazy good for nothing who has made a career out of avoiding work, especially anything hard, who might scrape a science O-level between the lot of them, and want to face in 3 directions at once without being held responsible for anything while shovelling our money into their mates' pockets...See, for example, the recent parliamentary select committee report on how useless they were.

ETA I know we covered some of this elsewhere earlier, but it bears repeating, as it shows what our "leadership" is like: our PM deliberately avoided 5 COBRA meetings around the start of the pandemic, making himself deliberately uninformed, assuming he's capable of understanding anyway, which I doubt; our PM deliberately ignored recommendations about distancing and physical contact with others (the shaking hands thing) and publicly scoffed at such advice; our PM is well known to regard illness in general as a sign of moral failure, seeming not to understand some basics of germ theory, and assumed that he and others could not possibly be at any risk, leading to him completely under-estimating what was happening. His "thought" processes and "decision" making have not improved, as he has shown no sign of learning.

And then there are chunks of The Great British Public, who, even during the tightest bits of our lockdown couldn't count to 2 (as in work out what 2 metres is), could not work out how to put on a face mask properly and did not know what their noses are. FFS, I, being in a high risk group, had to stop going out for walks on a couple of my usual local circuits (semi-rural Northumberland) on which I would usually see next to no-one, as those places were stowed out with folk from I know not where, no-one of whom knew what 2m is nor how to wear a mask. There is only so much barging into me I can take at the best of times, but during a major public health crisis?

And that's before we get into the anti-vax/5G/nanochip/"experimental gene therapy"/Freedumb "libertarian" idiots...