Continuation The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 4

[dann]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

It does seem that in US at least, excess deaths have normalized since April (not higher than expected).

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

There is an issue that death certificates take time to get processed and may not be received by the CDC for several weeks from the time of death, but their methodology compensates for that lag:

The last week on this graph is the week ending May 14th, which is already a month and a half ago. The last week with any excess deaths was the week ending March 19. Maybe it's too early to draw any firm conclusions though.

Stabilized? Is that good?

Quote:

Eric Feigl-Ding on Twitter, June 29, 2022:
I don’t know if anyone cares about kids—but #COVID19 hospitalization in kids have been steadily increasing for 2.5 months— now matching hospitalization last seen in February. Adult hospitalization rising too. #BA5/4 is behind the latest surge. #CovidIsNotOver

2) Further, pediatric hospitalizations for #COVID19 are even more aggressively increasing in England among both youngest kids and older kids. England has even more #BA5/4 than US… it’s a bellwether of what is to come.

[marting]

Intesting local stats. The county of San Diego Calif. (pop. > 3M) apparently hasn't had any boosted Covid-19 deaths in 3 months (the last month may have deaths that haven't been reported)..

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/conte...tus_Update.pdf

However, hospitalizations are up 3 fold from April and, curiously, the probability of hospitalization is, since April, higher for the fully vaccinated and boosted than just the fully vaccinated. And is only about 30% lower than the rate for the unvaccinated. Back in March the death rates were over 5 times higher for unvaccinated but that ratio has been dropping. Except for the vaccinated and boosted.. They have been at zero so can't drop any further.

Frankly, I find it hard to believe no one boosted has been recorded as died from Covid-19 since April. The boosted constitutes a large majority of the over 60 y/o and they are the majority that have been hospitalized.

Of the 118 people that have been genomically identified as having BA.4/5, none have been hospitalized or died.

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

New Danish study on sequelae:

Steven Novella writes about the Danish study mentioned in post 2,140:

Quote:

Out of 919,731 individuals that were tested for COVID-19 within the study, researchers found that the 43,375 people who tested positive had a 3.5 times increased risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease, 2.6 times with Parkinson’s disease, 2.7 times with ischaemic stroke, and 4.8 times with intracerebral hemorrhage (bleeding in the brain).
(...)
In addition to confirming these associations [that inflammation of the brain can cause neurodegenerative diseases, and the brain fog caused by COVID], further research should explore the degree to which vaccination prevents this increased risk in those who get COVID despite being vaccinated. We know that the COVID vaccines reduce the risk of developing long COVID, with estimates in the literature varying from 15% to 50% reduction.
COVID Associated With Neurodegenerative Disorders (Science-Based Medicine, June 29, 2022)

He mentions that this appears to be a parallel to the flu causing neurodegenerative diseases and flu vaccines protecting against them:

Quote:

This association is further supported by a recent study showing that getting flu vaccines reduces the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease
(...)
That’s a relative risk reduction of 40% with an absolute risk reduction from 8.5% to 5.1% (3.4%). Again, that is highly significant, which means at least two things. First this is more evidence to support a causal link between certain viruses and neurodegenerative disease, in this case the flu viruses with Alzheimer’s. But also it highlights the protective roll of vaccines in preventing this risk. There was also a dose-response effects, with a greater number of annual flu vaccines being more protective.

[rjh01]

I had a look at deaths in Australia, both road and Covid. Discovered that in 2021 there were 1123 road deaths. For Covid

Total deaths
29/06/22 = 9837
01/01/22 = 2253
01/01/21 = 909

Covid deaths are mostly for people aged 65+. Road deaths would be mostly young people.

Ref: https://www.health.gov.au/resources/...hic-collection
https://www.bitre.gov.au/publication...nual_summaries

[ZirconBlue]

Several people I know have recently gotten Covid. All of them used home tests, so are not included in the case counts. I would guess covid cases are being severely underreported at this time, even if the death count is still accurate.

[marting]

Originally Posted by ZirconBlue

Several people I know have recently gotten Covid. All of them used home tests, so are not included in the case counts. I would guess covid cases are being severely underreported at this time, even if the death count is still accurate.

Absolutely. Home tests aren't counted and can't even be reported in most places and for those that allow reporting the data isn't included in USA CDC counts. Covid impact is now measured indirectly. Part of the problem is that it's not even known how many people are self testing and no way to verify a self report.

Covid is very widespread in many countries. Some do random surveilance testing like the UK but most don't. Hospitalizations are now the best metric for impact. Fortunately they are relatively low but rising rapidly compared to how widespread covid probably is.

[marting]

Originally Posted by marting

Intesting local stats. The county of San Diego Calif. (pop. > 3M) apparently hasn't had any boosted Covid-19 deaths in 3 months (the last month may have deaths that haven't been reported)..

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/conte...tus_Update.pdf

However, hospitalizations are up 3 fold from April and, curiously, the probability of hospitalization is, since April, higher for the fully vaccinated and boosted than just the fully vaccinated. And is only about 30% lower than the rate for the unvaccinated. Back in March the death rates were over 5 times higher for unvaccinated but that ratio has been dropping. Except for the vaccinated and boosted.. They have been at zero so can't drop any further.

Frankly, I find it hard to believe no one boosted has been recorded as died from Covid-19 since April. The boosted constitutes a large majority of the over 60 y/o and they are the majority that have been hospitalized.

Of the 118 people that have been genomically identified as having BA.4/5, none have been hospitalized or died.

Oopsie, turns out boosted people did die of Covid-19. The latest report today shows 5 boosted deaths occurring at times through 5/20 then nothing after. Last week's report had zero deaths after 3/31. These deaths weren't in the previous week's list but popped up this week increasing the overall deaths slightly. Conveniently, the shifted time frame allowed them to report 0 death rates for fully vaccinated and boosted in both reports. Additionally, there was one additional "fully vaccinated" death reported. No change in unvaccinated between the two reports. Very strange.

These are the last two weekly reports. See page 7.
San_Diego_County_COVID-19_Watch_2022.06.23.pdf
San_Diego_County_COVID-19_Watch_2022.06.30.pdf

But there's good news.

That said, the IFR (all, vaxxed and not vaxxed) is now around .1% based on reported cases. And it's well understood that reported cases are far below actual infections. Estimates for infections range from 5x to 20x higher. So that means the IFR is actually closer to .02% to .005% which is well below Flu. However, considering how flakey their reporting is who really knows.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by marting

Fortunately they are relatively low but rising rapidly compared to how widespread covid probably is.

I'm not sure I agree that covid isn't as widespread as needed to produce the hospitalisations. Reporting here is almost non-existent, and I think true case numbers - based on sick leave being taken - are many, many times higher than being shown.

The BA4/5 seem to be yet another level of infectiousness beyond the other strains.

Originally Posted by marting

That said, the IFR (all, vaxxed and not vaxxed) is now around .1% based on reported cases. And it's well understood that reported cases are far below actual infections. Estimates for infections range from 5x to 20x higher. So that means the IFR is actually closer to .02% to .005% which is well below Flu. However, considering how flakey their reporting is who really knows.

I think the simplest guide is the best guide - death notices. They don't seem to be out of the ordinary anywhere, so their probably aren't too many people croaking.

Almost everyone who's died of/with covid in NZ in the past 3 months has been over 80 and with serious pre-existing conditions.

I think I might have to revisit my original name for covid of "Boomer Hoover".

[marting]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I'm not sure I agree that covid isn't as widespread as needed to produce the hospitalisations. Reporting here is almost non-existent, and I think true case numbers - based on sick leave being taken - are many, many times higher than being shown.

The BA4/5 seem to be yet another level of infectiousness beyond the other strains.

My statement was poorly formed

This: "Fortunately they are relatively low but rising rapidly compared to how widespread covid probably is."

Should have been along the lines of: "Fortunately, compared to how widespread covid probably is, they are relatively low even if rising rapidly."

Estimates are that actual covid cases, now over half from BA.4/5, are 5 to 20 times higher than the case numbers. And even with the suppressed (uncounted due to home tests) case numbers the percentage of those that are hospitalized is less than half the percentage prior to Omicron.

So the current covid-19 is a pale shadow of it's former self. The risk is that with the increasing rate of higher fitness evolution, now producing waves every 3 months, some reversion to increased virulance may occur like happened with Delta. We've been really lucky so far.

[dann]

Originally Posted by rjh01

I had a look at deaths in Australia, both road and Covid. Discovered that in 2021 there were 1123 road deaths. For Covid

Total deaths
29/06/22 = 9837
01/01/22 = 2253
01/01/21 = 909

Covid deaths are mostly for people aged 65+. Road deaths would be mostly young people.

Ref: https://www.health.gov.au/resources/...hic-collection
https://www.bitre.gov.au/publication...nual_summaries

So much for The Atheist's absurd lies about the dangers of driving v. the pandemic.

[dann]

Where's the herd immunity? Indeed!

Quote:

'Living with the virus is proving much harder than the early vaccine success suggested: this fight is far from over.
(...)
According to the latest numbers released today, the UK added more than half a million new Covid infections in the past week, and the estimated number of people with Covid in total was somewhere between 3% and 4% of the population. Many have been rather unwell and off work or school, with the associated disruptions of education, health care and other vital services. These infections will also inevitably add to the toll of long Covid cases. According to ONS data, the supposedly "mild" cases of Omicron during 2022 have brought more than 619,000 new long Covid cases into the clinical caseload, promising an enduring and miserable legacy from this latest phase.
Rather than a wall of immunity arising from vaccinations and previous infections, we are seeing wave after wave of new cases and a rapidly growing burden of long-term disease. What's going on? The latest scientific research has some answers.
(...)
Let us examine whether Omicron was, as some hoped, a benign natural booster of our Covid immunity. It turns out that isn't the case.
We considered many facets of immunity, including the antibodies most implicated in protection ("neutralizing antibodies"), as well as protective "immune memory" in white blood cells. The results tell us it is unsurprising that breakthrough infections were so common. Most people - even when triple vaccinated - had 20 times less neutralizing antibody response against Omicron than against the "Wuhan" strain. Importantly, Omicron infection was a poor booster of immunity to further Omicron infections. It is a kind of stealth virus that gets in under the radar without doing too much to alert immune defenses. Even having had Omicron, we're not well-protected from further infections.
Where's the herd immunity? Our research shows why Covid is still wreaking havoc. (The Guardian, July 1, 2022)

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by marting

So the current covid-19 is a pale shadow of it's former self. The risk is that with the increasing rate of higher fitness evolution, now producing waves every 3 months, some reversion to increased virulance may occur like happened with Delta. We've been really lucky so far.

Yeah, that's what I meant the other day when I wondered why we hadn't seen any new variants for some time.

I think the big danger is recombination.

We might be the petri dish for that - we have unbelievable numbers of covid, 'flu and norovirus all circulating simultaneously, along with a range of other viruses.

You wouldn't want the them all to get married!

Originally Posted by dann

So much for The Atheist's absurd lies about the dangers of driving v. the pandemic.

Lies?

I repeat for those too ignorant to understand:

World road deaths = 3700 each day.
World covid deaths = 1200 each day.

I'm not even going to point out that nowhere did I say driving was more dangerous than covid without tongue firmly in my cheek - the point is, and is demonstrably true, that more people are dying in crashes than from covid.

I'm deeply sorry the world doesn't conform to your irrational fears.

[dann]

That poor tongue must be totally numb by now.
I'm not really sorry that the stock market doesn't conform to The Atheist's irrational Covid optimism:

Originally Posted by dann

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people But the problem with the number of daily new cases is that some countries drastically reduce testing. Sweden, for instance, is close to having achieved ZeroCovid in this way. The death toll is usually much more reliable:
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths

There was a time when Jacinda Ardern called the relatives of people who had succumbed to Covid-19.

But we knew that 'learning to live with the virus' was never about people. It was always about the economy: New Zealand Economy Surprisingly Contracts as Covid Spread (Bloomberg)

Wait! That's not how it was supposed to work, was it?!
(The only thing that's surprising is that anybody's surprised.)

The most recent numbers: Today 21, yesterday 7, the day before yesterday 17.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

The most recent numbers: Today 21, yesterday 7, the day before yesterday 17.

Even though the link you give clearly states:

Quote:

That doesn't necessarily mean the virus killed those people, it just means they tested positive within 28 days of their death or immediately after.

Edited by jimbob:

Rule 0 and rule 12 violations removed

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

World covid deaths = 1200 each day.

Although it does seem to have started to rise again. Closer to 1400/day now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[dann]

Quote:

The number of new coronavirus cases rose by 18% in the last week, with more than 4.1 million cases reported globally, according the the World Health Organization.
The U.N. health agency said in its latest weekly report on the pandemic that the worldwide number of deaths remained relatively similar to the week before, at about 8,500. COVID-related deaths increased in three regions: the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Americas.
The biggest weekly rise in new COVID-19 cases was seen in the Middle East, where they increased by 47%, according to the report released late Wednesday. Infections rose by about 32% in Europe and Southeast Asia, and by about 14% in the Americas, WHO said.
WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said cases were on the rise in 110, countries mostly driven by the Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5.
"This pandemic is changing, but it's not over," Tedros said this week during a press briefing. He said the ability to track COVID-19's genetic evolution was "under threat" as countries relaxed surveillance and genetic sequencing efforts, warning that would make it more difficult to catch emerging and potentially dangerous new variants.
COVID-19 Cases ARE Rising Nearly Everywhere in the World, WHO Says (Time, June 30, 2022)

But who needs surveillance and gene-sequencing analysis when the strategy is 'learning to live with the virus'? All those pesky facts and actual knowledge about the virus will only serve to disturb the efforts to persuade as many people as possible to get infected and enjoy the experience.

[dann]

Quote:

The World Health Organization said Thursday it expected "high levels" of Covid-19 in Europe this summer and called on countries to monitor the spread as cases tripled in the past month.
"As countries across the European region have lifted the social measures that were previously in place, the virus will transmit at high levels over the summer", WHO Europe regional director Hans Kluge told AFP.
"This virus won't go away just because countries stop looking for it. It's still spreading, it's still changing, and it's still taking lives."
With the milder but more contagious Omicron subvariant BA.5 spreading across the continent, the 53 countries in the WHO European region are currently registering just under 500,000 cases daily, according to the organisation's data.
That is up from around 150,000 cases daily at the end of May.
Europe to see ‘high levels’ of Covid-19 this summer, WHO says (France24, June 30, 2022)

So even in this article we get the "milder," but at least it doesn't say "mild". However, I don't think that most people understand the difference. It does stress that BA.5 is more contagious, though.

[marting]

Originally Posted by dann

But who needs surveillance and gene-sequencing analysis when the strategy is 'learning to live with the virus'? All those pesky facts and actual knowledge about the virus will only serve to disturb the efforts to persuade as many people as possible to get infected and enjoy the experience.

We need the surveillance/sequencing to detect new variants because it's quite possible something new will show up. C19 is a novel virus undergoing rapid evolution. We have been lucky that it has evolved into something milder similar to Flu in terms of IFR but with concerning seqeula. It's very important to track this and work on new generation vaxxes. Current ones are pretty pathetic. It was previously thought hybrid immunity (vax+infection) would be more protective but that's turned out to be false with evidence of imprinting such that people infected with the original Wuhan strain and then vaxxed get no additional protection from re-infection with Omicron from the paper you posted. A really good paper BTW since it shows just what a complex mess C19 has turned into.

Here in California, some people, about 30% from my observations, have started wearing masks again when virtually nobody was a month ago. But given how transmissible and immune escape BA.4/5 are it would take China like NPIs to shut it down. That isn't going to happen. Again, that's why surveillance and vax research is critical even while people are living with it and its sequela as best they can.

[zooterkin]

In the UK, hardly anyone is wearing masks at the moment. I still wear one in shops, but very few other people are. I was at a nightclub the other week and I think I was the only one out of 5-600 wearing one. That is surely one of the reasons for the latest increase, along with the increased transmissibility of BA.5.

The latest estimate from the ZOE Covid symptom study is that there are 300,000 new cases a day. The ONS survey was also indicating a similar level.

According to the latest edition of More or Less, something like 95% of the UK population has been infected at some point. As far as I know (regular LFT testing, some PCR and antibody tests), I seem to be part of that 5% which has avoided it so far.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Although it does seem to have started to rise again. Closer to 1400/day now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yeah, we're going to see continuous waves of it, by the looks, and it doesn't appear to be conforming to any seasonality, with California experiencing a surge in high summer.

Originally Posted by marting

We need the surveillance/sequencing to detect new variants because it's quite possible something new will show up. C19 is a novel virus undergoing rapid evolution. We have been lucky that it has evolved into something milder similar to Flu in terms of IFR but with concerning seqeula.

What the next phase of evolution will be is the billion-dollar question. We don't have any precedent for what it might do, so sitting and waiting is all there is right now.

Which leads to the inevitable question...

Originally Posted by marting

It's very important to track this and work on new generation vaxxes. Current ones are pretty pathetic.

Sanofi is reporting early, very positive results: https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room...-30-00-2460833

But a major antigenic change might knock that on the head.

[dann]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

What the next phase of evolution will be is the billion-dollar question. We don't have any precedent for what it might do, so sitting and waiting is all there is right now.

All the phases of the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 so far, and there have been quite a few, have increased its contagiousness. It's what virus evolution does. At this point, I don't even know any longer how much more contagious it is than the original 'Wuhan' version. 10? 20? 30? Did it overtake measles in that respect yet? What to Know about the Newest, Most Contagious Omicron Subvariants (Time, June 15, 2022)

And the notion that "sitting and waiting is all there is right now" is the idea of a learning-to-live-with-the-virus fan whose main concern is to make sure that nothing is done because it might impact the economy adversely. Three months ago, nothing should be done about it because Omicron, the allegedly mild variant would kill "much less" than 500 in New Zealand in 2022. Now that it has already killed 1,422, post-vaccinations, only 51 total in the two years prior, and no end in sight, "sitting and waiting is all there is to do," because that's the attitude that makes us proud of being Homo sapiens: "Don't Look Up!"

Quote:

Which leads to the inevitable question...

Sanofi is reporting early, very positive results: https://www.sanofi.com/en/media-room...-30-00-2460833

But a major antigenic change might knock that on the head.

So while "sitting and waiting," The Atheist has googled an article that hypes of a new vaccine that sounds marvelous as most advertising does - "Next-generation booster vaccine candidate demonstrates potential to protect against COVID-19 variants of concern, including Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, with a favorable safety and tolerability profile" - until you notice that BA.5 isn't mentioned at all! And BA.5 certainly isn't Next Generation ...

But as long as we don't take any actual action against the virus, The Atheist is happy, sitting and waiting for the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 to turn it into a pussycat, since we allegedly lack "any (!) precedent for what it might do," a claim that only makes sense if we're in denial of all the precedents we've experienced and studied so far: Variants of SARS-CoV-2 (Wiki).

'Thoughts and prayers' to you, too!

[dann]

Originally Posted by marting

We need the surveillance/sequencing to detect new variants because it's quite possible something new will show up.

It is not only "quite possible", it is bound to happen if we let it, which we do.

Quote:

C19 is a novel virus undergoing rapid evolution. We have been lucky that it has evolved into something milder similar to Flu in terms of IFR but with concerning seqeula.

And here we go with "milder" again, so let me point out that a reduction to, maybe, 3/4 of the virulence doesn't really make up for several times higher contagtiousness, does it? It's the reason why many countries have experienced more Omicron deaths than deaths from all the previous variants - post-vaccinations! In some Nordic countries the death toll quadrupled after the "milder" variant took over. So, no, I wouldn't describe that as having been lucky.

Quote:

It's very important to track this and work on new generation vaxxes. Current ones are pretty pathetic. It was previously thought hybrid immunity (vax+infection) would be more protective but that's turned out to be false with evidence of imprinting such that people infected with the original Wuhan strain and then vaxxed get no additional protection from re-infection with Omicron from the paper you posted. A really good paper BTW since it shows just what a complex mess C19 has turned into.

Yes, we also haven't been 'lucky' in this respect. And speaking of respect: Please don't blame C19! Respect it! It hasn't turned into any kind of mess. It's doing fine, doing what an evolving virus does when given a chance to do so. But as SARS-CoV-2 has come up with new and improved versions of itself, virus protection in all Western countries has deteriorated to the extent where it has become almost non-existent while Asian nations (and my favourite, Cuba) have actually put up a fight and refused to bow down and give the virus free rein of the land.

Quote:

Here in California, some people, about 30% from my observations, have started wearing masks again when virtually nobody was a month ago. But given how transmissible and immune escape BA.4/5 are it would take China like NPIs to shut it down. That isn't going to happen. Again, that's why surveillance and vax research is critical even while people are living with it and its sequela as best they can.

Why do we always hear about China's inferior vaccines and the superior mRNA vaccines of the West, except in this context where it would make it seem as if it would make the combination of vaccines and NPI much more successful and thus make it much easier to combat the virus?
Meanwhile in Shanghai: Shanghai Disneyland reopens as China relaxes more Covid rules - A child looks at balloons at the Shanghai Disneytown on June 16, 2022 in Shanghai, China. (CNN, June , 2022)

"That isn't going to happen" here because we're not going to let it happen! Instead, people are forced to come to terms with 'living with it (and dying with it) and its sequela as best they can'.

[dann]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

In the UK, hardly anyone is wearing masks at the moment. I still wear one in shops, but very few other people are. I was at a nightclub the other week and I think I was the only one out of 5-600 wearing one. That is surely one of the reasons for the latest increase, along with the increased transmissibility of BA.5.

The latest estimate from the ZOE Covid symptom study is that there are 300,000 new cases a day. The ONS survey was also indicating a similar level.

According to the latest edition of More or Less, something like 95% of the UK population has been infected at some point. As far as I know (regular LFT testing, some PCR and antibody tests), I seem to be part of that 5% which has avoided it so far.

It would be interesting to know the percentage of people who have had it more than once at this point. Of the 1.790 reported cases reported in Denmark on Friday, 335 had been infected before. Not too long ago, it would have been less than 10%.

I have stayed out of nightclubs during the pandemic and only dance salsa at outdoor venues, the few months a year that's possible (i.e. comfortable) in Denmark.

[dann]

Quote:

Eric Feigl-Ding (Nov 10, 2020)
20% of recovering #COVID19 patients develop mental illness within 90 days, says large US study. Increased *first-time diagnosis* of anxiety, depression & insomnia by 2-fold! And researchers also found significantly higher risks of dementia. ��
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...38189971288064

But who cares about those percentages when a a 25-year-old investment analyst in Shanghai feels down?

Quote:

Businesses and restaurants were finally reopening. State media trumpeted a return to normalcy, and on the first night of release, people milled in the streets, shouting, “Freedom!”
Julie Geng, a 25-year-old investment analyst in the city, could not bring herself to join. “I don’t think there’s anything worth celebrating,” she said. She had spent part of April confined in a centralized quarantine facility after testing positive and the feeling of powerlessness was still fresh.
“I feel there is no basic guarantee in life, and so much could change overnight,” she said. “It makes me feel very fragile.”
(...)
Others were questioning why they had worked so hard in the first place, having seen how money could not ensure their comfort or safety during lockdown. They were now saving less and spending more on food and other tangible objects that could bring a sense of security, Ms. Xu said.
“Money has lost its original value,” she said. “This has upended the way they always thought, leaving them a bit lost.”
‘Very Fragile’: Shanghai Wrestles With Psychological Scars of Lockdown (New York Times, June 29, 2022)

Why, this is not supposed to happen to people with money, is it?!
And then, of course, there are things like this:

Quote:

State media has glossed over residents’ residual anger and fear, encouraging “positive energy” and holding Shanghai up as yet another example of the success of the zero Covid strategy.

Man, I'm so happy that I live in Denmark where the media tells me:
Professor after new R₀: Relax and enjoy the summer
Expert about the corona numbers today: No cause for concern
According to the experts, there was "no cause for concern" - two weeks later, Denmark is a country in quarantine

Quote:

This is the first time in a pandemic that we create a lot of immunity by means of vaccines.
And now we have an Omicron-booster infection on top of that, so we have considerable and robust immunity against future variants in the Danish population.
Very many Danes have had three vaccine shots, and when we are then infected with Omicron, it does work like a 'natural' vaccine. It was described in a scientific article from June 2021 that when you are vaccinated and then get infected, it creates super immunity.
in the study mentioned above this was illustrated with three trees: If you only have the natural immunity from infection, then you have a little tree. If you have immunity from vaccines, you have a slightly larger tree. But if you have both, you have a much bigger tree.
The Spanish Flu is a marvellous example of how pandemics end (Videnskab.dk, March 14, 2022)

Isn't science wonderful? Let me see if I can be sciency, too:
'If you only have the so-called natural immunity, i.e. if you got infected and the infection didn't kill you or harm your immunity, which it not entirely unlikely, then your immunity is piss poor. If you have immunity from vaccines, it is slightly better and considerably better than never having been infected in the first place. But if you have both (or anyone of the others), you can look forward to getting infected again and again, each time increasing your risk of dying and getting sequelae that may ruin the rest of your now probably considerably shorter life. And there is no reason to mention that you may also help spread the virus to others, even members of your own family, is there?'
How did I do?

A third of infections don't get any protective antibodies (That's a very small tree indeed, isn't it? It isn't even a small bush!)
Coronavirus Deranges the Immune System in Complex and Deadly Ways
COVID-19 linked to increased risk of shingles, pharma company finds

Man, to live in country where the media is unreliable and scientists can't be trusted. Must be dreadful!

[dann]

Selective visuoconstructional impairment following mild COVID-19 with inflammatory and neuroimaging correlation findings (Nature, June 14, 2022)

Or in the words of Dominique de Quervain (July 1, 2022):
New study finds cognitive deficits (visuoconstructive) after mild Covid-19, which were associated with changes in brain structure and brain metabolism.

So for some people, "... sitting and waiting is all there is right now."

[dann]

It is possible that Omicron may have been slightly less virulent than previous variants at first, but this may have changed with more recent variants like BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1:

Quote:

The rising cases of Covid, in the UK, the US and some European countries, as well as in India, majorly driven by BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron, suggest it may have evolved to target the lungs, according to a study.
Separately, two studies also showed their potential in escaping vaccine-induced immunity as well as that from previous infections.
The highly contagious Omicron variant of Covid was once known to affect the upper airways more than lungs, unlike Delta, causing common cold-like symptoms. This may explain why infections tend to be milder in most people.
But now, a preliminary study from the University of Tokyo showed that BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1 may have evolved to cause infection of lung cells. This may make the sub-variants more similar to earlier variants, such as Alpha or Delta, the Independent reported.
Omicron sub-variants may target lungs, evade vax, prior infection: Studies (Business Standard, June 23, 2022)

[marting]

Originally Posted by dann

It is possible that Omicron may have been slightly less virulent than previous variants at first, but this may have changed with more recent variants like BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1:

Apparently not. There's not much out there on BA.4/5 but South Africa was an early adopter. Here's a real world preprint on humans instead of hamsters. Pretty similar virulence between BA.1 and BA.4/5.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....28.22276983v1

Quote:

Results Among 3,793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92; 1.12). Both Omicron waves had lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Prior infection (aHR 0.19, 95% CI 0.16; 0.22) and vaccination (aHR 0.24; 95% CI 0.15; 0.39 for boosted vs. no vaccine) were protective.

Interesting that both vaxxes and prior infection provided substantial protection.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

It is possible that Omicron may have been slightly less virulent than previous variants at first, but this may have changed with more recent variants like BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1:

There's the absolute proof that you're scaremongering - an article from an Indian newspaper with heap maybes and mights from experiments on hamsters. You are deliberately posting dubious information that conforms to your mistaken ideas.

And India's been so honest to date, what could possibly go wrong?

Marting, on the other hand, links to a study showing real-world results on thousands of human infections.

I wonder which one's more trustworthy?

[marting]

Updated preprint version:

Quote:

The adjusted hazard of severe hospitalization or death in the BA.4/BA.5 wave was similar to the BA.1 wave (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93; 1.34) (Table 2). Both Omicron-driven waves had lower hazards of severe hospitalization or death than previous waves (Table 2). Prior diagnosed infection was strongly protective against severe hospitalization or death (aHR 0.29; 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) as was vaccination with aHR (95% CI) of 0.17 (0.07; 0.40); 0.37 (0.33; 0.42) and 0.26 (0.21; 0.32) for “boosted”, “two doses” and “single dose”, respectively

Note that they have increased the BA.5 aRH (relative to BA.1) point value from 1.01 to 1.12 as a result of "refining" their analysis.

Quote:

Analysis refined. The risk of severe hospitalization and death during BA.4/BA.5 wave vs. BA.1 wave remains similar but adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) now updated to 1.12 (0.93; 1.34) and the relative protection of all vaccination categories against severe disease is slightly greater with the updated analysis.

Probably worth noting that all the HRs are for PCR positives. Probably shouldn't assume the percentage of infections detected with PCR was similar with each variant. Assymptomatic and subclinical rates vary between them. UK numbers might provide insight into this by comparing their surveillance data, which is randomized and includes assymptomatics, with their normal testing as BA.5 gets a bit further along there.

[marting]

A paper in Nature on the Kaiser (big and detailed Caalif. data) discusses the stark difference between Delta and BA.1/BA.2. In particular there was a very large decrease in mortality for unvaccinated between Delta and Omicron. While vaxes were protective for both, they were much more so for Delta than Omicron.

Kaiser doesn't have anything for BA.4/5 yet but now that they are over 50% here it won't be long.

Here's the Kaiser info:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01887-z

Quote:

Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for any hospital admission, symptomatic hospital admission, intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and death comparing cases with Omicron versus Delta variant infection were 0.59 (95% confidence interval: 0.51-0.69), 0.59 (0.51-0.68), 0.50 (0.29-0.87), 0.36 (0.18-0.72), and 0.21 (0.10-0.44) respectively. This reduced severity could not be explained by differential history of prior infection among cases with Omicron or Delta variant infection, and was starkest among cases not previously vaccinated against COVID-19 (aHR=0.40 [0.33-0.49] for any hospital admission and 0.14 [0.07-0.28] for death). Infections with the Omicron BA.2 subvariant were not associated with differential risk of severe outcomes in comparison to BA.1/BA.1.1 subvariant infections. Lower risk of severe clinical outcomes among cases with Omicron variant infection should inform public health response amid establishment of the Omicron variant as the dominant SARS-CoV-2 lineage globally.

[dann]

NZ:

Quote:

"It's not clear whether the Government is going to move to a higher alert level but people should be aware that there is going to be a significant peak and they might want to implement their own shielding measures," Welch said.
"The same things that have always worked will continue to work."
Masks, ventilation, distancing and vaccines are still effective against BA.5. A fourth shot is available to those aged 50 and over as well as healthcare workers aged 30 and up.
The Government may also face pressure to update its isolation rules. After Newsroom reported that health experts considered the health advice not to test for reinfections to be "dangerous misinformation", Verrall announced a new set of evidence-aligned advice on Thursday.
(...)
The bad news is that our big BA.2 wave may not give us much more protection than the rest of the world has. The BA.2 subvariant is slightly more similar to BA.5 than the original Omicron BA.1, but that doesn't seem to have advantaged other countries that, like New Zealand, saw BA.2 dominate their first Omicron waves.
"Initially there was a bit of hope that maybe BA.2 would be more protective against BA.5 but that doesn't really seem to be the case," Welch said.
BA.5 may force return to Red (newsroom, July 4, 2022)

A significant peak will add to the already considerable death toll this year, 1,461, already several times more than the "much lower" number than 500 predicted by The Atheist.

Originally Posted by The Atheist

'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that

And it doesn't make it any better that the first 'wave' has continued since it began in March and never really ended.
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths

I don't think the drivers in NZ stand a chance of ever catching up with those numbers.
Deaths for calendar years (* figures for current, incomplete, year/month): 188, so far.
Drivers with long-Covid brain fog may help even the score a little, but there is still a very long way to go.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

A significant peak will add to the already considerable death toll this year, 1,461, already several times more than the "much lower" number than 500 predicted by The Atheist.

Since you keep ignoring the fact, I'll keep repeating it - that number is people who died with covid, not because of covid.

And even if they all died of covid, at 300 deaths/million, we still rank 148th in the world.

Hardly a reason for the panic you wish to create.

Nice swerve, by the way, on failing to answer the points about your fraudulent attempt to paint BA5 as more deadly than it is.

[dann]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Since you keep ignoring the fact, I'll keep repeating it - that number is people who died with covid, not because of covid.

And even if they all died of covid, at 300 deaths/million, we still rank 148th in the world.

Hardly a reason for the panic you wish to create.

Nice swerve, by the way, on failing to answer the points about your fraudulent attempt to paint BA5 as more deadly than it is.

Since The Atheist keeps ignoring the fact, I guess I'll have to begin repeating that one, too: Only a minority of people who die with covid, do not also die because of covid. That is the reason why The Atheist never mentions any number but instead simply says that some of those (how many?) who die 'with' Covid-19 don't die of Covid-19.

Another fact that I guess I will have to point out from time to time is that "we", i.e. New Zealanders, "still rank 148th in the world," not because of the letting-it-rip-and-learn-to-live-with-it policy favored by The Atheist, but on the contrary because of the now abandoned ZeroCovid policies of the Jacinda Ardern government that he despised.

The virulence of Omicron may be slightly lower (75%? 80%?), which it makes up for by being several times more contagious, which is why it kills more people than any of the previous variants when given the chance. The virulence of BA.5 still remains to be seen, but it is already clear that it more contagious than any of the previous variants.
However, to The Atheist it doesn't matter that new variants kills more people than old variants due to their contagiousness. What matters is that one aspect may make them seem less lethal even when they are not, so that's what he cherry picks!

It was to be expected that The Atheist would ignore that the "bit of hope" that some people had, "that maybe BA.2 would be more protective against BA.5, ... doesn't really seem to be the case."

Some people immediately panic when their attempts at minimizing Covid-19 are revealed as fraudulent, be it the fairy tale about the dangers of driving a car in comparison to the dangers of coming down with Covid-19 or be it the "with"/"because of" idiocy.
So let's ask him a direct question and see what he comes up with:

How many of those 1,461 New Zealanders who died "with" Covid-19 this year, didn't die "because of" Covid-19?

It is a distinction that he makes again and again without ever being specific because he knows that it wouldn't get him anywhere near the 'much lower than 500', which was his claim. The claim was already preposterous when he made it, March 25. 217 had died at that point, up from 102 on March 15, only ten days earlier! More than 100 in ten days, and yet the death toll for the whole year 2022 was going to be "much lower" than 500! But that's what Covid minimizers do. They minimize.
And the virus has been relentless ever since because New Zealand dropped its ZeroCovid policy as The Atheist was preaching in this thread that the it should do.

And now he resorts to referencing the success of that ZeroCovid policy: "we still rank 148th in the world." Cherry picking, as always, and at this point already 147th in most deaths per million, according to Worldometer, having recently overtaken countries like Japan and Singapore, which have managed to flatten their curves somewhat - something that NZ is nowhere near doing, on the contrary.

And The Atheist will no doubt continue to argue against the measures that we know are effective. After all, "sitting and waiting is all there is right now," while the death toll keeps rising.

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Since you keep ignoring the fact, I'll keep repeating it - that number is people who died with covid, not because of covid.

In the UK, currently, 61% of deaths involving Covid (and that's data on the death certificate, not 'deaths within 28 days of a test') are due to Covid.

Quote:

Of the 264 deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 24, 61.0% (161 deaths) had this recorded as the underlying cause of death, an increase from 58.1% in Week 23.

[dann]

In Denmark, in the most recent week the estimate was made, week 18, it was 42 of, 12 with.
Scroll down to Estimerede coronadødsfald i Danmark (TV2.dk)

For some reason, this distinction became extremely important when Denmark changed to the let-it-rip-and-learn-to-live-with-it strategy.

The Atheist still seems to stick with his much-lower-than-500 claim. Since the year is far from over, I guess that the NZ estimate will have to be about 10% of and 90% with. And even some of those 10% will probably be interpreted as having been asphyxiated in face mask accidents while jaywalking.

[marting]

Most people in New Zealand hospitals are there for influenza which is having a particularly bad flu, RSV, season due to NPI suppression over the last few years.

We won't know what the impact of Covid-19 on excess deaths for some time and even then it will have to be an estimate after subtracting flu deaths. This will require an estimate based on historical flu deaths.

Bob Wachter, chair of UCSF medical, who is quite good estimates hospitalization rates currently at about 50% "with" but we currently have low flu rates. I would expect NZ to be somewhat higher "with" given their flu situation.

Wachter's thread on the current situation with BA.5

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...074292739.html

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

... Another fact that I guess I will have to point out from time to time is that "we", i.e. New Zealanders, "still rank 148th in the world," not because of the letting-it-rip-and-learn-to-live-with-it policy favored by The Atheist, but on the contrary because of the now abandoned ZeroCovid policies of the Jacinda Ardern government that he despised. ...

Correction:
Apparently it is supposed to be, our Communist Leader, Jacinda Zedong Stalin. Nevertheless, it was still thanks to 'Communist Leader, Jacinda Zedong Stalin's' cutting NZ "off from the rest of the world" at the beginning of the pandemic, that The Atheist can now take pride in the fact that New Zealanders "still rank 148th 147th in the world" in most Covid-19 deaths.
The irony!

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by dann

Since The Atheist keeps ignoring the fact, I guess I'll have to begin repeating that one, too: Only a minority of people who die with covid, do not also die because of covid.

And I'll repeat, those who die because of covid are dying because they'd be dead within months anyway.

Over half of covid deaths last week in NZ were aged 90+.

How many years did the disease steal from those hale 90-somethings?

Originally Posted by dann

Another fact that I guess I will have to point out from time to time is that "we", i.e. New Zealanders, "still rank 148th in the world," not because of the letting-it-rip-and-learn-to-live-with-it policy favored by The Atheist, but on the contrary because of the now abandoned ZeroCovid policies of the Jacinda Ardern government that he despised.

Now you're simply lying, and you can check for yourself, I was 100% in favour of shutting the country down and sticking with zero covid until vaccines were administered.

Originally Posted by dann

How many of those 1,461 New Zealanders who died "with" Covid-19 this year, didn't die "because of" Covid-19?

I've shown you the website several times, and it's about 50%. Given that 90% of those who do die because of covid are either in high-level care, I'm not losing any sleep over them dying a week or two earlier than they otherwise would have.

Originally Posted by dann

It is a distinction that he makes again and again without ever being specific because he knows that it wouldn't get him anywhere near the 'much lower than 500', which was his claim.

Yes, I admit to low-balling. Mea culpa. More oldies are dying than I predicted. Crying towels available.

Originally Posted by dann

And the virus has been relentless ever since because New Zealand dropped its ZeroCovid policy as The Atheist was preaching in this thread that the it should do.

That's why nobody is worrying about it. There were over 80,000 people attending two football games on the weekend in Auckland.

About 3 people wore masks.

Thankfully, the enormous majority of the world sees covid for what it now is - a disease that won't kill you unless you're extremely unlucky, extremely old and frail, or unvaccinated, and I couldn't care how many of the patter group die.

Originally Posted by zooterkin

In the UK, currently, 61% of deaths involving Covid (and that's data on the death certificate, not 'deaths within 28 days of a test') are due to Covid.

Wow!

That's a whopping death total of 500 people in one week! My god, it is serious.

Let's just avoid the fact that over 10,000 people die every week in UK. That means that a massive 5% of deaths are attributable to covid. I'll hold a special mass for them tonight.

How many of those horrific deaths were in rest homes and aged over 90?

People die every day, and in UK, rather a lot of them croak. As Marting keeps pointing out, the excess deaths are not showing up more than fractional increases, and they will level out over the year because most of those covid deaths would be pushing up daisies within months, regardless of covid.

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

And I'll repeat, those who die because of covid are dying because they'd be dead within months anyway.

Repeating it doesn't make it any more true. It certainly doesn't apply to the one person I've met personally who died of Covid.

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

That's a whopping death total of 500 people in one week! My god, it is serious.

It is compared to road deaths, which is what you were using as your benchmark.

Quote:

People die every day, and in UK, rather a lot of them croak. As Marting keeps pointing out, the excess deaths are not showing up more than fractional increases, and they will level out over the year because most of those covid deaths would be pushing up daisies within months, regardless of covid.

I don't know about where marting is, but in the UK, excess deaths are still high, and the 5 year average that's measured against now includes 2021.

Week 24 2022	England and Wales	England	Wales
Total deaths (all causes)	10,844	10,162	658
Excess deaths	1,444	1,365	76
Percentage change
compared to 5-year average
(2016 to 2019 and 2021)	15.4%	15.5%	13.1%