Scottish Independence referendum 2023

Nessie · 28th June 2022, 06:51 AM

So, a month shy of 9 years after the last Scottish Independence referendum, we are to get another one on the 19th October 2023.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-61954331

"Nicola Sturgeon to set out plan for second independence referendum"

I presume if that one is another no, the SNP will wait 8 years and have another in 2031. The last one in 2014 was a vote of 55% no, on a turnout of 84%.

The first part of the campaign, will be over the legality of having another referendum. I am not happy, as having repeated referendums until you get the result you want and then stopping, looks rather undemocratic to me.

The Don · 28th June 2022, 07:03 AM

For reasons I cannot explain rationally, I was opposed to Scottish independence last time around.

This time I think that Scotland should take the opportunity to become independent.

edited to add......

But as I don't have a dog in the fight, my opinions both then and now are irrelevant.

Nessie · 28th June 2022, 08:14 AM

There will also be a fight over whether there should be a three way voting option, with yes, no and devo max, as in more powers move north.

Hlafordlaes · 28th June 2022, 08:23 AM

I wonder what has changed since the last referendum that might justifiably warrant a repeat and a potential reevaluation of motives and opportunities.

Nessie · 28th June 2022, 08:28 AM

I genuinely think that the SNP are hoping BJ stays PM for another 18 months as people get even more sick of him and his version of Etonian Conservatism, with many Scots wanting out of future Conservative rule, rather than out of the UK. But they will vote to leave the UK, so as to avoid any more Etonian Conservatism.

shuttlt · 28th June 2022, 08:28 AM

Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes

I wonder what has changed since the last referendum that might justifiably warrant a repeat and a potential reevaluation of motives and opportunities.

To be fair, they were pretty much wanting a do-over from the end of the last referendum. Nothing really needs to happen to justify the SNP pushing for a referendum.

Darat · 28th June 2022, 08:31 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

For reasons I cannot explain rationally, I was opposed to Scottish independence last time around.

This time I think that Scotland should take the opportunity to become independent.

edited to add......

But as I don't have a dog in the fight, my opinions both then and now are irrelevant.

I'm the same - I didn't want to see my country broken up, now I think "good luck" to them as I can't think of any rational reason to stay anchored to the rest of the country now it has gone to the dogs.

Hlafordlaes · 28th June 2022, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by shuttlt

To be fair, they were pretty much wanting a do-over from the end of the last referendum. Nothing really needs to happen to justify the SNP pushing for a referendum.

My point stands, regardless.

crescent · 28th June 2022, 08:49 AM

I remember discussion of this here on the forum during the leadup to the Brexit vote. Several members had argued that Brexit would make it more likely that pro-independence Scottish people would make another push. The pro-Brexit person argued strenuously that would not happen, because it was too soon. The argument was that Scotland would need to let at least a whole generation pass before trying again, so worries about Brexit leading to Scotland's independence were unwarranted.

Well, democracy in action.

Nessie · 28th June 2022, 08:54 AM

It will be interesting to hear from Rolfe, as she has had a bit of a falling out with the SNP leadership under Sturgeon.

I worry independence will come down to personality as much as policy. Farage and BJ appealed to enough people to win Brexit, despite obvious policy issues, such as the Irish border. But, they never appealed in Scotland.

Lplus · 28th June 2022, 09:38 AM

If it weren't for the need to maintain a land border they could head off now with my blessing (assuming a majority really do want to leave.) A pity, since England and Scotland (and Wales and NI) have done some pretty impressive things together in the last 200 years or so, but there you go.

Planigale · 28th June 2022, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Darat

I'm the same - I didn't want to see my country broken up, now I think "good luck" to them as I can't think of any rational reason to stay anchored to the rest of the country now it has gone to the dogs.

Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre.

This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics.

arthwollipot · 28th June 2022, 09:20 PM

Cool! I look forward to seeing the result.

Darat · 29th June 2022, 01:07 AM

Originally Posted by Planigale

Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre.

This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics.

Well done.

Carrot Flower King · 29th June 2022, 03:36 AM

As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us.

Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood.

Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation?

Planigale · 29th June 2022, 09:07 AM

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us.

Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood.

Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation?

Absolutely!

The SNP are very centralising. There is now a Scottish police force, fire and rescue service, and ambulance service. The adult social services are being taken out of local authority control and being put into a new National Care Service, by analogy with the NHS. The NHS in Scotland is subject to more direct political direction than it is in England. It will be interesting to see how much the new education reforms shift control of education from local authorities to central government.

For the periphery of Scotland, Scottish devolution has resulted in a reduction in local autonomy. For the islands Edinburgh is nearly as remote as London, and Edinburgh is far more controlling.

Architect · 29th June 2022, 09:35 AM

Speaking as someone who also comes from the periphery, I think the extent to which some centralisation is suggested as problematic is overly simplified. SFRS, for example, still operates using three main regional divisions and the situation on the ground seems similar to the previous arrangement.

That said, it has long been recognised that there is a split in the SNP cabinet between those who wish centralisation and those who support stronger local government. That argument has not yet fully played out and I suspect much may yet change.

Architect · 29th June 2022, 09:39 AM

Originally Posted by Planigale

Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre.

This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics.

I'm sorry but that is painting with an excessively broad brush.

The party remains split between the gradualists, who I suspect would be happy to wait a few more years for Indyref #2 (so, for example, to ensure the Scottish tax service is working smoothly) and the absolutist wing who think the country should march out of the door tomorrow.

The Cabinet has rightly identified te likelihood of an impasse from the Supreme Court and Tory party at Westminster. It therefore knocks the debate into the long grass for 2-3 years in a way which prevents a party split.

If, on the other hand, BoJo sees this and goes for an election then the SNP have the advantage of an incompetent, uncaring administration at no. 10 as a shining example of why self-determination is a good idea.

dudalb · 29th June 2022, 01:10 PM

Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King

As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us.

Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood.

Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation?

The balance of power between state/local governments and the federal goverement is an eternal issue in American History.

But loot is simple: The Central belt in Scotland is much more heavily populated then a lot of the rural parts of Scotland. They are always going to probably be the most powerful voice.Trick is to balance the two.

Parsman · 2nd July 2022, 07:48 AM

To be honest as someone living in Scotland currently I am not sure why we sholdn't have another referendum on independence in the near future. This is for a number of reasons.

1) There has been a fundamental change in circumstances with Brexit. In fact one of the main arguments used against a Yes vote was that we would be forced to leave the EU. Since Scotland voted to Remain in the EU, independence might be a quicker way back in than to hope the English change their minds.

2) We were promised a more powerful devolved parliament by all the British parties. To be fair I think a big majority of Scots would accept Devo Max but IT WAS NEVER DELIVERED. Emblematic of the way British Governments have treated Scotland for most of my lifetime we are promised the moon and we get its reflection in a puddle.

3) Scottish elections consistently return a majority of parties and votes that back a second referendum. It isn't just the SNP, the Scottish Greens also support Scottish independence and they form a majority in the Scottish Parliament.

There are other arguments but these ought to be enough to allow a referendum to take place. My only quibble with Sturgeon would be the timing but it should probably happen soon.

Rolfe · 2nd July 2022, 01:28 PM

Originally Posted by Nessie

It will be interesting to hear from Rolfe, as she has had a bit of a falling out with the SNP leadership under Sturgeon.

I worry independence will come down to personality as much as policy. Farage and BJ appealed to enough people to win Brexit, despite obvious policy issues, such as the Irish border. But, they never appealed in Scotland.

I do not think an independence referendum will happen in 2023.

Wake me up if it really starts to look as if there is a likelihood of this.

Captain_Swoop · 2nd July 2022, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by Planigale

Absolutely!

The SNP are very centralising. There is now a Scottish police force, fire and rescue service, and ambulance service. The adult social services are being taken out of local authority control and being put into a new National Care Service, by analogy with the NHS. The NHS in Scotland is subject to more direct political direction than it is in England. It will be interesting to see how much the new education reforms shift control of education from local authorities to central government.

For the periphery of Scotland, Scottish devolution has resulted in a reduction in local autonomy. For the islands Edinburgh is nearly as remote as London, and Edinburgh is far more controlling.

There should be similar centralisation in England. Some of the ambulance and police forces are too small to be effective.

Orphia Nay · 2nd July 2022, 10:38 PM

From the article in the OP:

There is "speculation that [Sturgeon] could be a preparing a "consultative" referendum on independence.

This could see proposals for people to be asked a different question to the 2014 referendum's "yes/no" on whether Scotland should become an independent country.

For example, voters could instead be asked if they believed the Scottish government should begin negotiations with the UK government on Scotland leaving the UK.

Some commentators believe this is less likely to be successfully blocked by the UK government through the courts."

So, there may be a referendum, but we don't know what the question will be.

psionl0 · 3rd July 2022, 02:00 AM

What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland?

Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"?

Darat · 3rd July 2022, 02:54 AM

Originally Posted by Orphia Nay

From the article in the OP:

There is "speculation that [Sturgeon] could be a preparing a "consultative" referendum on independence.

...snip...

All such referendums in the UK are consultative.

SteveAitch · 3rd July 2022, 03:09 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland?

Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"?

There's a piece in yesterday's i which deals with some of the points.

AAMOI, 'twas a bugger to find - their web-site is badly structured and the search facility is crap.

The Don · 3rd July 2022, 04:20 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland?

Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"?

IIRC most of the ex-colonies retained the Queen as head of state - at least for a while.

My guess would be that Scotland would follow a similar path, not least because it was their monarchy before it was ours.

Rolfe · 3rd July 2022, 08:02 AM

Really, this is a pointless thread. There is not going to be an independence referendum in 2023, or in 2024 either. This is a simple fact not dependant on the rant that I am not going to write about Nicola Sturgeon's actual motivations and intentions.

Wings has finally got his act together and explained why. He does this much better than I could, so just read it. Catch 2022.

Quote:

So: it is manifestly obvious to anyone remotely sane that even if everything goes as favourably as possible there’s absolutely no chance of delivering a second indyref by next October, or indeed even in 2024. The First Minister is not serious.

This “routemap” is aimed only at the hyper-gullible and blindly faithful (sadly still plentiful in the Yes movement), and those entities who make a cynical profit out of trying to sustain the fantasy. It’s a plan which – by the Scottish Government’s own actions – is both designed and guaranteed to fail.

Nessie · 23rd November 2022, 08:22 AM

Its official, there will not be a referendum in 2023, or for the foreseeable future.

https://news.stv.tv/politics/supreme...nce-referendum

The courts say no to the SNP going it alone for another referendum.

LondonJohn · 23rd November 2022, 06:38 PM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Really, this is a pointless thread. There is not going to be an independence referendum in 2023, or in 2024 either. This is a simple fact not dependant on the rant that I am not going to write about Nicola Sturgeon's actual motivations and intentions.

Wings has finally got his act together and explained why. He does this much better than I could, so just read it. Catch 2022.

As the UK Supreme Court made perfectly clear in its judgement, no Scottish Government of any flavour/motivation/desire will ever be able to hold a lawful Indy referendum without the explicit prior consent of the UK Parliament. Whether one holds these strange conspiratorial views about Sturgeon’s motives or not, or whether one believes Salmond would have led Scotland to independence, is wholly irrelevant: no Scottish Government would ever, or will ever, have the right to hold an independence referendum without UK Parliamentary assent.

There are extremely sound reasons why this should be so, as the judgment clearly sets out. Incidentally, I recall stating this precise view in an earlier Indy thread here, but was vociferously shouted down by the usual suspects. I was right then (and I knew I was right then) and of course I’m right now.

The only thing left to discuss is whether the Scottish Government is ever minded to attempt some sort of blackmail to “force” the UK Parliament to agree to another referendum. On that sort of matter, Scottish Nationalists would be wise to take careful legal counsel, because I have more than a feeling that those sorts of tactics would backfire horribly on the Scottish Government and Parliament.

This is The End · 23rd November 2022, 07:02 PM

This is an absolute joke.

LondonJohn · 23rd November 2022, 07:10 PM

Originally Posted by This is The End

This is an absolute joke.

UK law and international law both fundamentally disagree with your assessment - with strong and valid reason. As the UK Supreme Court carefully laid out in its judgement.

LondonJohn · 23rd November 2022, 07:12 PM

“Burn England” eh? Ooooookayyyyyy…….

psionl0 · 23rd November 2022, 09:13 PM

Originally Posted by LondonJohn

The only thing left to discuss is whether the Scottish Government is ever minded to attempt some sort of blackmail to “force” the UK Parliament to agree to another referendum.

Another alternative is that Scotland unilaterally declares itself independent. Of course, since the Monarch would (on advice of parliament) oppose this, they would have to become a republic.

Whether the British PM would do an Abe Lincoln over this is something to be considered.

arthwollipot · 23rd November 2022, 09:23 PM

Or, here's a crazy idea: they could make their case before the British parliament and try to sway sufficient numbers onto their side so that the referendum can be permitted to take place.

LondonJohn · 23rd November 2022, 09:50 PM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Another alternative is that Scotland unilaterally declares itself independent. Of course, since the Monarch would (on advice of parliament) oppose this, they would have to become a republic.

Whether the British PM would do an Abe Lincoln over this is something to be considered.

No: that chain of events cannot and will not ever take place. The only situation where international law permits secession of one region of a sovereign state without the approval of that sovereign state’s legislature… is if the seceding region can demonstrate that it’s being significantly oppressed by the state, or if the region was at some point in the past colonised by the state against the wishes of the region. Needless to say, these preconditions are entirely absent & inarguable regarding Scotlands’s place within the UK.

If Scotland took the course of action you suggest, it would immediately be deemed illegal in international law (as well as in UK law, obviously). Scotland would be told by the UN and the International Court to abandon plans to secede in any form whatsoever. If it still refused, international trade and political sanctions would come into force, and international law would ultimately give the UK Government the right to dissolve all Scottish governmental institutions and send in the military if need be.

Now, in reality things will never come anywhere close to this. And that’s because even the SNP can see the road it would be going down if it unilaterally declared independence. Plus of course the current voting intentions on IndyRef are almost neck and neck, so it’s also impossible in practice that Holyrood would/could declare independence without holding another referendum - and the UK & international courts would prevent any such referendum from taking place long, long before the ballot boxes were set up.

LondonJohn · 23rd November 2022, 10:03 PM

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

Or, here's a crazy idea: they could make their case before the British parliament and try to sway sufficient numbers onto their side so that the referendum can be permitted to take place.

This is another scenario that will almost certainly never take place.

When the UK Government passed special temporary legislation to permit the 2014 referendum, it was done on the strict basis that this would be a “once in a generation” vote. There is zero appetite to abandon that condition. Bear in mind that two major Westminster parties both vehemently oppose Scottish independence: wrt the Conservative Party - full title “The Conservative and Unionist Party” - the clue is in the name; regarding the Labour Party, they know it would become very significantly more difficult for them ever to hold a majority in a UK-less-Scotland legislature, because of the number of Scottish-constituency Labour MPs in the current UK Parliament.

That’s why I argue that the only course of action for Holyrood with any chance at all of success would be to force the hand of the UK Parliament into granting a new IndyRef, through implicit threats and populist ground-level tactics. But I’d also argue that a) things could end up very badly indeed for Scotland if they tried this approach (and I think they probably know this already) and therefore b) I don’t think this will happen in practice.

dudalb · 23rd November 2022, 11:05 PM

Originally Posted by This is The End

This is an absolute joke.

Nice logo. TOo bad most Scots who want independence want it to be friendly divorce.

dudalb · 23rd November 2022, 11:06 PM

Or the current Stuart heir could raise the royal standard....

Planigale · 24th November 2022, 12:10 AM

I think the 'leak'* of the document where the NHS in Scotland are asked to do blue sky thinking on the future of the NHS in Scotland including having a part pay healthcare for those with higher incomes will not be helpful. People will say look if you support the SNP then this will mean the end of the NHS as we know it. The SNP have always looked to Scandinavia where the health system is a mixed economy.

*'leak' = document transiently posted on Scottish Government web site, but now removed.

28th June 2022, 06:51 AM	#1
Nessie Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 14,453	Scottish Independence referendum 2023 So, a month shy of 9 years after the last Scottish Independence referendum, we are to get another one on the 19th October 2023. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-61954331 "Nicola Sturgeon to set out plan for second independence referendum" I presume if that one is another no, the SNP will wait 8 years and have another in 2031. The last one in 2014 was a vote of 55% no, on a turnout of 84%. The first part of the campaign, will be over the legality of having another referendum. I am not happy, as having repeated referendums until you get the result you want and then stopping, looks rather undemocratic to me.
	__________________ Audiophile/biker/sceptic

28th June 2022, 08:14 AM	#3
Nessie Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 14,453	There will also be a fight over whether there should be a three way voting option, with yes, no and devo max, as in more powers move north.
	__________________ Audiophile/biker/sceptic

28th June 2022, 08:23 AM	#4
Hlafordlaes Disorder of Kilopi Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: State of Flux Posts: 16,939	I wonder what has changed since the last referendum that might justifiably warrant a repeat and a potential reevaluation of motives and opportunities.
	__________________ His real name is Count Douchenozzle von Stenchfahrter und Lichtendicks. - shemp

28th June 2022, 08:28 AM	#5
Nessie Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 14,453	I genuinely think that the SNP are hoping BJ stays PM for another 18 months as people get even more sick of him and his version of Etonian Conservatism, with many Scots wanting out of future Conservative rule, rather than out of the UK. But they will vote to leave the UK, so as to avoid any more Etonian Conservatism.
	__________________ Audiophile/biker/sceptic

28th June 2022, 08:31 AM	#7
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 108,202	Originally Posted by The Don For reasons I cannot explain rationally, I was opposed to Scottish independence last time around. This time I think that Scotland should take the opportunity to become independent. edited to add...... But as I don't have a dog in the fight, my opinions both then and now are irrelevant. I'm the same - I didn't want to see my country broken up, now I think "good luck" to them as I can't think of any rational reason to stay anchored to the rest of the country now it has gone to the dogs.
	__________________ I wish I knew how to quit you

28th June 2022, 07:03 AM	#2
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,395	For reasons I cannot explain rationally, I was opposed to Scottish independence last time around. This time I think that Scotland should take the opportunity to become independent. edited to add...... But as I don't have a dog in the fight, my opinions both then and now are irrelevant.
	Last edited by The Don; 28th June 2022 at 07:22 AM.

28th June 2022, 08:28 AM	#6
shuttlt Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 10,094	Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes I wonder what has changed since the last referendum that might justifiably warrant a repeat and a potential reevaluation of motives and opportunities. To be fair, they were pretty much wanting a do-over from the end of the last referendum. Nothing really needs to happen to justify the SNP pushing for a referendum.

28th June 2022, 08:42 AM	#8
Hlafordlaes Disorder of Kilopi Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: State of Flux Posts: 16,939	Originally Posted by shuttlt To be fair, they were pretty much wanting a do-over from the end of the last referendum. Nothing really needs to happen to justify the SNP pushing for a referendum. My point stands, regardless.
	__________________ His real name is Count Douchenozzle von Stenchfahrter und Lichtendicks. - shemp

28th June 2022, 08:49 AM	#9
crescent Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Colorado Posts: 5,319	I remember discussion of this here on the forum during the leadup to the Brexit vote. Several members had argued that Brexit would make it more likely that pro-independence Scottish people would make another push. The pro-Brexit person argued strenuously that would not happen, because it was too soon. The argument was that Scotland would need to let at least a whole generation pass before trying again, so worries about Brexit leading to Scotland's independence were unwarranted. Well, democracy in action.

28th June 2022, 08:54 AM	#10
Nessie Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 14,453	It will be interesting to hear from Rolfe, as she has had a bit of a falling out with the SNP leadership under Sturgeon. I worry independence will come down to personality as much as policy. Farage and BJ appealed to enough people to win Brexit, despite obvious policy issues, such as the Irish border. But, they never appealed in Scotland.
	__________________ Audiophile/biker/sceptic

28th June 2022, 09:38 AM	#11
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,589	If it weren't for the need to maintain a land border they could head off now with my blessing (assuming a majority really do want to leave.) A pity, since England and Scotland (and Wales and NI) have done some pretty impressive things together in the last 200 years or so, but there you go.
Lplus Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 1,589

28th June 2022, 09:40 AM	#12
Planigale Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: 49 North Posts: 5,939	Originally Posted by Darat I'm the same - I didn't want to see my country broken up, now I think "good luck" to them as I can't think of any rational reason to stay anchored to the rest of the country now it has gone to the dogs. Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre. This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics.

28th June 2022, 09:20 PM	#13
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 80,951	Cool! I look forward to seeing the result.
	__________________ Слава Україні! Героям Слава! 20220224 - 20230224

29th June 2022, 01:07 AM	#14
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 108,202	Originally Posted by Planigale Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre. This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics. Well done.
	__________________ I wish I knew how to quit you

29th June 2022, 03:36 AM	#15
Carrot Flower King Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2020 Location: Northumberland, UK Posts: 3,618	As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us. Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood. Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation?

29th June 2022, 09:07 AM	#16
Planigale Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: 49 North Posts: 5,939	Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us. Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood. Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation? Absolutely! The SNP are very centralising. There is now a Scottish police force, fire and rescue service, and ambulance service. The adult social services are being taken out of local authority control and being put into a new National Care Service, by analogy with the NHS. The NHS in Scotland is subject to more direct political direction than it is in England. It will be interesting to see how much the new education reforms shift control of education from local authorities to central government. For the periphery of Scotland, Scottish devolution has resulted in a reduction in local autonomy. For the islands Edinburgh is nearly as remote as London, and Edinburgh is far more controlling.

29th June 2022, 09:35 AM	#17
Architect Chief Punkah Wallah Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: UK Posts: 9,774	Speaking as someone who also comes from the periphery, I think the extent to which some centralisation is suggested as problematic is overly simplified. SFRS, for example, still operates using three main regional divisions and the situation on the ground seems similar to the previous arrangement. That said, it has long been recognised that there is a split in the SNP cabinet between those who wish centralisation and those who support stronger local government. That argument has not yet fully played out and I suspect much may yet change.
	__________________ When the men elected to make laws are but a small part of a foreign parliament, that is when all healthy national feeling dies. James Keir Hardie (1856 - 1915): Politician, Founder of Scottish Labour Party

29th June 2022, 09:39 AM	#18
Architect Chief Punkah Wallah Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: UK Posts: 9,774	Originally Posted by Planigale Just because Scotland is declining under a corrupt virtually one party state is no good reason to jettison us! The majority don't want the SG pursuing independence at present, they would rather it focussed on delivering effective services and perhaps less centralisation and more devolution of powers away from the centre. This is about Sturgeon maintaining power within the party. The driver is internal SNP politics. I'm sorry but that is painting with an excessively broad brush. The party remains split between the gradualists, who I suspect would be happy to wait a few more years for Indyref #2 (so, for example, to ensure the Scottish tax service is working smoothly) and the absolutist wing who think the country should march out of the door tomorrow. The Cabinet has rightly identified te likelihood of an impasse from the Supreme Court and Tory party at Westminster. It therefore knocks the debate into the long grass for 2-3 years in a way which prevents a party split. If, on the other hand, BoJo sees this and goes for an election then the SNP have the advantage of an incompetent, uncaring administration at no. 10 as a shining example of why self-determination is a good idea.
	__________________ When the men elected to make laws are but a small part of a foreign parliament, that is when all healthy national feeling dies. James Keir Hardie (1856 - 1915): Politician, Founder of Scottish Labour Party

29th June 2022, 01:10 PM	#19
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 57,860	Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King As long as they stick by the line every politician and journalist usually trot out, that the border is Hadrian's Wall, then we here can be shot of sodding Westminster, which ignores us. Aaaah, but then we'd be in the position a couple of blokes I spoke to in Sutherland just before the '14 referendum found themselves: ignored by all the Central Belters in Holyrood. Can we not just have a more localised system of governance for all of us? Y'know, local decision making with some actual power? Less centralisation? The balance of power between state/local governments and the federal goverement is an eternal issue in American History. But loot is simple: The Central belt in Scotland is much more heavily populated then a lot of the rural parts of Scotland. They are always going to probably be the most powerful voice.Trick is to balance the two.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

2nd July 2022, 07:48 AM	#20
Parsman Muse Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Bonnie Scotland Posts: 921	To be honest as someone living in Scotland currently I am not sure why we sholdn't have another referendum on independence in the near future. This is for a number of reasons. 1) There has been a fundamental change in circumstances with Brexit. In fact one of the main arguments used against a Yes vote was that we would be forced to leave the EU. Since Scotland voted to Remain in the EU, independence might be a quicker way back in than to hope the English change their minds. 2) We were promised a more powerful devolved parliament by all the British parties. To be fair I think a big majority of Scots would accept Devo Max but IT WAS NEVER DELIVERED. Emblematic of the way British Governments have treated Scotland for most of my lifetime we are promised the moon and we get its reflection in a puddle. 3) Scottish elections consistently return a majority of parties and votes that back a second referendum. It isn't just the SNP, the Scottish Greens also support Scottish independence and they form a majority in the Scottish Parliament. There are other arguments but these ought to be enough to allow a referendum to take place. My only quibble with Sturgeon would be the timing but it should probably happen soon.
	__________________ I was not; I have been; I am not; I am content - Epicurus When you're dead you don't know that you're dead, all the pain is felt by others....................the same thing happens when you're stupid.

2nd July 2022, 01:28 PM	#21
Rolfe Adult human female Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 50,593	Originally Posted by Nessie It will be interesting to hear from Rolfe, as she has had a bit of a falling out with the SNP leadership under Sturgeon. I worry independence will come down to personality as much as policy. Farage and BJ appealed to enough people to win Brexit, despite obvious policy issues, such as the Irish border. But, they never appealed in Scotland. I do not think an independence referendum will happen in 2023. Wake me up if it really starts to look as if there is a likelihood of this.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

2nd July 2022, 01:33 PM	#22
Captain_Swoop Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 43,373	Originally Posted by Planigale Absolutely! The SNP are very centralising. There is now a Scottish police force, fire and rescue service, and ambulance service. The adult social services are being taken out of local authority control and being put into a new National Care Service, by analogy with the NHS. The NHS in Scotland is subject to more direct political direction than it is in England. It will be interesting to see how much the new education reforms shift control of education from local authorities to central government. For the periphery of Scotland, Scottish devolution has resulted in a reduction in local autonomy. For the islands Edinburgh is nearly as remote as London, and Edinburgh is far more controlling. There should be similar centralisation in England. Some of the ambulance and police forces are too small to be effective.

2nd July 2022, 10:38 PM	#23
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Photo Contest Winner Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 41,428	From the article in the OP: There is "speculation that [Sturgeon] could be a preparing a "consultative" referendum on independence. This could see proposals for people to be asked a different question to the 2014 referendum's "yes/no" on whether Scotland should become an independent country. For example, voters could instead be asked if they believed the Scottish government should begin negotiations with the UK government on Scotland leaving the UK. Some commentators believe this is less likely to be successfully blocked by the UK government through the courts." So, there may be a referendum, but we don't know what the question will be.
	__________________ "We stigmatize and send to the margins people who trigger in us the feelings we want to avoid" - Melinda Gates, "The Moment of Lift".

3rd July 2022, 02:00 AM	#24
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,932	What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland? Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"?
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

3rd July 2022, 02:54 AM	#25
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 108,202	Originally Posted by Orphia Nay From the article in the OP: There is "speculation that [Sturgeon] could be a preparing a "consultative" referendum on independence. ...snip... All such referendums in the UK are consultative.
	__________________ I wish I knew how to quit you

3rd July 2022, 03:09 AM	#26
SteveAitch Muse Join Date: Apr 2020 Location: St Aines Posts: 756	Originally Posted by psionl0 What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland? Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"? There's a piece in yesterday's i which deals with some of the points. AAMOI, 'twas a bugger to find - their web-site is badly structured and the search facility is crap.
	__________________ If this board is too exciting for you, try my Flickr pages. Warning: may cause narcolepsy! Some people call me 'strange'. I prefer 'unconventional'. But I'm willing to compromise and accept 'eccentric'...

3rd July 2022, 04:20 AM	#27
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,395	Originally Posted by psionl0 What would independence mean for Scotland? Would Scotland become a republic or would the Queen still be Queen of Scotland? Is there a proposed constitution being put out for discussion or is it just a case of "don't worry your pretty little head about the details"? IIRC most of the ex-colonies retained the Queen as head of state - at least for a while. My guess would be that Scotland would follow a similar path, not least because it was their monarchy before it was ours.

3rd July 2022, 08:02 AM	#28
Rolfe Adult human female Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 50,593	Really, this is a pointless thread. There is not going to be an independence referendum in 2023, or in 2024 either. This is a simple fact not dependant on the rant that I am not going to write about Nicola Sturgeon's actual motivations and intentions. Wings has finally got his act together and explained why. He does this much better than I could, so just read it. Catch 2022. Quote: So: it is manifestly obvious to anyone remotely sane that even if everything goes as favourably as possible there’s absolutely no chance of delivering a second indyref by next October, or indeed even in 2024. The First Minister is not serious. This “routemap” is aimed only at the hyper-gullible and blindly faithful (sadly still plentiful in the Yes movement), and those entities who make a cynical profit out of trying to sustain the fantasy. It’s a plan which – by the Scottish Government’s own actions – is both designed and guaranteed to fail.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

23rd November 2022, 08:22 AM	#29
Nessie Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 14,453	Its official, there will not be a referendum in 2023, or for the foreseeable future. https://news.stv.tv/politics/supreme...nce-referendum The courts say no to the SNP going it alone for another referendum.
	__________________ Audiophile/biker/sceptic

23rd November 2022, 06:38 PM	#30
LondonJohn Penultimate Amazing Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 20,318	Originally Posted by Rolfe Really, this is a pointless thread. There is not going to be an independence referendum in 2023, or in 2024 either. This is a simple fact not dependant on the rant that I am not going to write about Nicola Sturgeon's actual motivations and intentions. Wings has finally got his act together and explained why. He does this much better than I could, so just read it. Catch 2022. As the UK Supreme Court made perfectly clear in its judgement, no Scottish Government of any flavour/motivation/desire will ever be able to hold a lawful Indy referendum without the explicit prior consent of the UK Parliament. Whether one holds these strange conspiratorial views about Sturgeon’s motives or not, or whether one believes Salmond would have led Scotland to independence, is wholly irrelevant: no Scottish Government would ever, or will ever, have the right to hold an independence referendum without UK Parliamentary assent. There are extremely sound reasons why this should be so, as the judgment clearly sets out. Incidentally, I recall stating this precise view in an earlier Indy thread here, but was vociferously shouted down by the usual suspects. I was right then (and I knew I was right then) and of course I’m right now. The only thing left to discuss is whether the Scottish Government is ever minded to attempt some sort of blackmail to “force” the UK Parliament to agree to another referendum. On that sort of matter, Scottish Nationalists would be wise to take careful legal counsel, because I have more than a feeling that those sorts of tactics would backfire horribly on the Scottish Government and Parliament.

23rd November 2022, 07:02 PM	#31
This is The End Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 10,924	This is an absolute joke.
This is The End Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 10,924	__________________ ________________________

23rd November 2022, 07:10 PM	#32
LondonJohn Penultimate Amazing Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 20,318	Originally Posted by This is The End This is an absolute joke. UK law and international law both fundamentally disagree with your assessment - with strong and valid reason. As the UK Supreme Court carefully laid out in its judgement.

23rd November 2022, 07:12 PM	#33
LondonJohn Penultimate Amazing Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 20,318	“Burn England” eh? Ooooookayyyyyy…….

23rd November 2022, 09:13 PM	#34
psionl0 Skeptical about skeptics Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°57'S 115°57'E Posts: 19,932	Originally Posted by LondonJohn The only thing left to discuss is whether the Scottish Government is ever minded to attempt some sort of blackmail to “force” the UK Parliament to agree to another referendum. Another alternative is that Scotland unilaterally declares itself independent. Of course, since the Monarch would (on advice of parliament) oppose this, they would have to become a republic. Whether the British PM would do an Abe Lincoln over this is something to be considered.
	__________________ "The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent." - Galbraith, 1975

23rd November 2022, 09:23 PM	#35
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 80,951	Or, here's a crazy idea: they could make their case before the British parliament and try to sway sufficient numbers onto their side so that the referendum can be permitted to take place.
	__________________ Слава Україні! Героям Слава! 20220224 - 20230224