Republican Lessons from the 2022 mid-terms

[Trebuchet]

Ok, they may yet control Congress, but did much less well than expected. What will they have learned?

[Crossbow]

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

Ok, they may yet control Congress, but did much less well than expected. What will they have learned?

I seriously doubt if the stupid, idiotic, lying Republicans have learned much of anything.

Oops!

After seeing the poll, I realize that I need to correct my original posting (see above).

Accordingly, I voted for all of the poll options, except for the 'Planet X' option.

[Trebuchet]

Stuff I don't understand: How is it that every time I post a poll someone has replied before I've even seen it?

[JoeMorgue]

They "learn" that the Democrats have gotten better at busing in illegal brown people to steal elections.

[kookbreaker]

They want to repeal the 26th amendment.

[Segnosaur]

Minor point... Instead of just:
"Only on Planet X would it occur to them to have better candidates."

You should have said:
"Only on Planet X would it occur to them to have better candidates or better policies"

For example, even though most white women ended up supporting the republican party, there were still quite a few women who considered abortion a significant-enough issue to vote democrat. Even some of the worst republican candidates that were in tight election races (like Bobert or Walker) might have been able to squeeze out an election victory if they didn't have a bunch of uppity women-folk pissed off that they are losing control over their bodies.

[The Great Zaganza]

Republicans know exactly what lesson to learn from the midterms, but they are too scared to do it: dump Trump and all his mini-mes.

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

Minor point... Instead of just:
"Only on Planet X would it occur to them to have better candidates."

You should have said:
"Only on Planet X would it occur to them to have better candidates or better policies"

For example, even though most white women ended up supporting the republican party, there were still quite a few women who considered abortion a significant-enough issue to vote democrat. Even some of the worst republican candidates that were in tight election races (like Bobert or Walker) might have been able to squeeze out an election victory if they didn't have a bunch of uppity women-folk pissed off that they are losing control over their bodies.

Agreed, but it was getting to long as is!

[arayder]

I think the Republicans need to demonstrate competence in governance.

The "I am outsider" thing is just going to work for so long before people start asking what you have in mind to do.

Pointing out problems (crime, inflation etc.) while offering no substantive solutions doesn't inspire confidence. Neither does pretending you are the victim of some woke mob or a bunch of vote stealing commies.

When you add in to the perception that Republicans love gerrymandering, want to restrict voting, end access to safe abortions and cut social security it makes it seem that they aren't for anything and can't do anything but say and vote no.

[Donal]

Republicans(or conservatives depending on the year) always learn lessons from the biggest losses. They picked up Wallace and Goldwater's "States' Rights" bits and turned them into the Southern Strategy, which also works in the MidWest.

They took Watergate and Nixon's downfall and reached out to the right-wing super Christians as well as attacking the "media elites", which Wallace also did. They then learned to solidify support internally and stressed party of country or prinicples.

Whatever lessons they will learn, they will be amoral and simply tactical with a focus on solifying power and excluding undesirables.

[Crossbow]

Originally Posted by arayder

I think the Republicans need to demonstrate competence in governance.

The "I am outsider" thing is just going to work for so long before people start asking what you have in mind to do.

Pointing out problems (crime, inflation etc.) while offering no substantive solutions doesn't inspire confidence. Neither does pretending you are the victim of some woke mob or a bunch of vote stealing commies.

When you add in to the perception that Republicans love gerrymandering, want to restrict voting, end access to safe abortions and cut social security it makes it seem that they aren't for anything and can't do anything but say and vote no.

Thanks much!

This is a good call and this has been precisely the problem with so many Republicans since the days of Newt Gingrich.

Republicans have learned how to raise money,
Republicans have learned how to make news,
Republicans have learned how adjust voting maps in their favor,
Republicans have learned how to block anti-Republicans from voting,
Republicans have learned how to appeal to their base supporters, and
Republicans have learned how to block things from being implemented which they do not like.

However,

Republicans have not learned how to govern even though they have have nearly 30 years to do so as well as having the benefit of two Republican Presidents.

[JoeMorgue]

But Republicans don't have anything else to offer. They are factually incorrect and morally wrong about literally everything.

You pull the icky, sticky core of a vague conspiratorial nonsense about God fearing white America being under attack they can sell to racists and "I'm an idiot who thinks thinking the exact opposite of what I'm told is the same thing as thinking for myself" types and what do they have?

[The Great Zaganza]

Republicans could do basically anything they want, as long as they tell their Base that Democrats hate it.
Including sensible gun and immigration reform.

[Donal]

It's asymmetrical warfare. Republicans don't have a plan to govern because they don't want to. Their whole shtick is to roll back the federal government. So pointing out that a Republican House with a Democratic Senate and President won't pass the legislation they want to is missing the point.

[JoeMorgue]

Yeah but don't need a Democratic government every few years as a scapegoat if that's your long term plan?

[Shalamar]

Originally Posted by Crossbow

Thanks much!

This is a good call and this has been precisely the problem with so many Republicans since the days of Newt Gingrich.

Republicans have learned how to raise money,
Republicans have learned how to make news,
Republicans have learned how adjust voting maps in their favor,
Republicans have learned how to block anti-Republicans from voting,
Republicans have learned how to appeal to their base supporters, and
Republicans have learned how to block things from being implemented which they do not like.

However,

Republicans have not learned how to govern even though they have have nearly 30 years to do so as well as having the benefit of two Republican Presidents.

Republicans do not want to Govern. They want to Rule.

[Donal]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Yeah but don't need a Democratic government every few years as a scapegoat if that's your long term plan?

There is no long-term plan. There's just today's objective. If there isn't a strong enough Democrat to scapegoat, then they just turn on someone like the tech CEOs. Or Latinos in their camp. Anyone who can be "othered" will do.

[arayder]

Originally Posted by Crossbow

Republicans have not learned how to govern even though they have have nearly 30 years to do so as well as having the benefit of two Republican Presidents.

Trump really bungled our response to Covid. He had a chance to come out of the crisis as a sane, compassionate leader who was willing to stand up to the crazies for the good of the country. He could have won 2020 in a landslide.

Instead he threw in with the covid crazies and has gone down that path ever since. He actually started down that road with all the Obama birth certificate stuff, but that was relatively harmless.

He can't lead and he won't get out of the way.

[TheGoldcountry]

Originally Posted by arayder

Trump really bungled our response to Covid. He had a chance to come out of the crisis as a sane, compassionate leader who was willing to stand up to the crazies for the good of the country. He could have won 2020 in a landslide.

Instead he threw in with the covid crazies and has gone down that path ever since. He actually started down that road with all the Obama birth certificate stuff, but that was relatively harmless.

He can't lead and he won't get out of the way.

Well, you dance with the girl you brought to the party.

Those crazies are the ones who got him elected to begin with.

[Donal]

All he had to do was use the resources already set up for him. No one would have cared if it was Obama and W that made the pandemic response playbook. He would have gotten credit for following the steps laid out. He could have just stepped back and let the people in the relevant offices do their jobs and taken credit for far fewer fatalities and barely a dent in the economy. It has to be one of the biggest own goals in history.

[arayder]

Originally Posted by arayder

Trump really bungled our response to Covid. He had a chance to come out of the crisis as a sane, compassionate leader who was willing to stand up to the crazies for the good of the country. He could have won 2020 in a landslide.

Instead he threw in with the covid crazies and has gone down that path ever since. He actually started down that road with all the Obama birth certificate stuff, but that was relatively harmless.

He can't lead and he won't get out of the way.

Originally Posted by TheGoldcountry

Well, you dance with the girl you brought to the party.

Those crazies are the ones who got him elected to begin with.

Well, you got that right.

The question now is whether the crazy train is sustainable. . .and will people have enough sense to get off at the next stop?

[TheGoldcountry]

Trump treated his whole presidency like it was a TV show. It was always about his ego and "ratings." He didn't measure success by being competent, but by attention.

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by arayder

Well, you got that right.

The question now is whether the crazy train is sustainable. . .and will people have enough sense to get off at the next stop?

Republicans are in, what I've called in the past, the Radio Shack Going Out Of Business Paradox.

It's 2010. Give me a solid reason that Radio Shack will fail as a business on a timeline that you could honestly call "soon." Easy right?

Okay it's 2010. Give me a solid reason that Radio Shack will fail as a business on a timeline that you could honestly call "soon".... that isn't exactly and equally true and valid as it would have been in 2005 or 2000 or 1995?

That second question is a LOT harder to answer. Radio Shack had every valid reason to go out of business WAY before it actually went out of business.

And that's sort of where we are at with the GOP. There are thousand good, solid, accurate, true, perfectly reasonable reasons why Republican politics are not long term sustainable. The problem is all these reasons have been good, solid, accurate, true, perfectly reasonable reasons have been there since... arguably Reagan, certainly for a couple of decades at least.

So yeah I buy all the arguments as to why the Republicans are eventually going to just if nothing else collapse as, but I don't know how much I buy any argument about it happening "soon" as opposed to 20 years ago or 20 years from now.

Like Radio Shack in the past with Republicans now there is an X factor in there somewhere keeping them alive that is countering all the valid reasons why they should already be on the way out. It might be some strong foundational factor we've overlooked or a house of cards that's gonna blow down at the first breeze or something in between, but there's something.

Long story short that's why I don't like when "The Republicans are going to fail" is treated as both the solution to the problem and as some sort of inevitability that's going to happen on a timeframe worth counting on. Yes it's true that they are doomed to fail; everything from the changing demographics of the country to the simple march of time proves that they are life support to a large degree and outside of consolidating their power to the point of Fascism (i.e. what they are openly trying to do now) they have no long term future, but I think disagree with a lot of people on how long they can drag it out before they win or go away entirely.

[arayder]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Long story short that's why I don't like when "The Republicans are going to fail" is treated as both the solution to the problem and as some sort of inevitability that's going to happen on a timeframe worth counting on. Yes it's true that they are doomed to fail; everything from the changing demographics of the country to the simple march of time proves that they are life support to a large degree and outside of consolidating their power to the point of Fascism (i.e. what they are openly trying to do now) they have no long term future, but I think disagree with a lot of people on how long they can drag it out before they win or go away entirely.

I think after the party hits bottom some Republicans will come along who make sense and save the party. By then the democrats will have governed enough to have made lots of mistakes and worn out their welcome.

Think Nixon after Goldwater.

[Brainster]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Yes it's true that they are doomed to fail; everything from the changing demographics of the country to the simple march of time proves that they are life support to a large degree and outside of consolidating their power to the point of Fascism (i.e. what they are openly trying to do now) they have no long term future, but I think disagree with a lot of people on how long they can drag it out before they win or go away entirely.

This is silly. For starters, let's remember that the Republicans are almost certainly going to have control of the House. So while it was doubtless a disappointing night from their standpoint, it's not like they lost; they just didn't cover the spread.

Second, there is always going to be a party of let's change things and a party of let's keep things the way they are. As I put it years ago, the Democrats are the gas pedal and the Republicans are the brakes. Without the gas pedal you'll never get anywhere, and without the brakes you'll quickly drive off a cliff.

ETA: As for some real lessons:

1. Candidate quality matters. The GOP lost some winnable seats because they fielded sub-par and non-establishment candidates.
2. Stop focusing on 2020 and Trump.
3. Abortion is no longer a winning issue for them, because they no longer have the passion all on their side as they did during the Roe years.

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by Brainster

This is silly. For starters, let's remember that the Republicans are almost certainly going to have control of the House. So while it was doubtless a disappointing night from their standpoint, it's not like they lost; they just didn't cover the spread.

Second, there is always going to be a party of let's change things and a party of let's keep things the way they are. As I put it years ago, the Democrats are the gas pedal and the Republicans are the brakes. Without the gas pedal you'll never get anywhere, and without the brakes you'll quickly drive off a cliff.

Name one time where the Republicans "Kept things the way they were" and history didn't damn them for it.

Name one time history was on the side of the Republicans.

*In the modern sense of the term, I'm not playing the "Ya know Lincoln was a Republican game" with anyone nor am I letting anyone lump the Dixiecrats in with Democrats.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Name one time where the Republicans "Kept things the way they were" and history didn't damn them for it.

Name one time history was on the side of the Republicans.

*In the modern sense of the term, I'm not playing the "Ya know Lincoln was a Republican game" with anyone nor am I letting anyone lump the Dixiecrats in with Democrats.

Richard Nixon created the EPA.... he'd never fit in with the modern GoP.

[Donal]

And he had the good sense to resign rather than drag the country through a trial.

[Brainster]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Name one time where the Republicans "Kept things the way they were" and history didn't damn them for it.

Do you think history will damn them for opposing transwomen competing in women's sports?

[Resume]

One thing is certain: with the re-election of Johnson, Greene and Boebert, and the possibility of Walker winning the runoff, there seem to be none too curbstone thick to be offered as candidates, and to win.

[dudalb]

Bad candidates. If they had nominted more traditoinal Republicans, they would have won some of those close races.
I know most people here hate the GOP...and would do so if Trump had never existed, but I a seeing way too much thinking the GOP is a monolith.

[Brainster]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Bad candidates. If they had nominted more traditoinal Republicans, they would have won some of those close races.
I know most people here hate the GOP...and would do so if Trump had never existed, but I a seeing way too much thinking the GOP is a monolith.

I pointed this out yesterday, but Arizona had four state offices on the ballot yesterday--Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. The first three of those offices have some authority over elections, while the Treasurer does not.

The Republican candidate for Treasurer is running away with the race, up over 200,000 votes. The Republican candidates for the other three offices are all losing (although narrowly and with enough votes outstanding to change the outcome). Seems pretty clear that a lot of Republicans crossed over for the top three jobs, then came back to the fold for the Treasurer spot.

[johnny karate]

Originally Posted by Brainster

This is silly. For starters, let's remember that the Republicans are almost certainly going to have control of the House. So while it was doubtless a disappointing night from their standpoint, it's not like they lost; they just didn't cover the spread.

Didn’t cover the spread? Give me a break.

First of all, they haven’t won anything yet, and might not.

Secondly, this isn’t like Republicans we’re slightly off the mark. Joe Biden has a 40% approval rating and inflation is the highest it’s been in generations. This election should have been a blowout. It should have been a repeat of 2010.

That’s how unlikeable and unappealing the Republican Party has become. They turned a slam-dunk election cycle into, best case scenario, a squeaker with a slim majority in one or both chambers, worst case scenario, a loss.

This is a political face-plant of epic proportions, and as much as you want to sugar coat, the entire Republican establishment has been absolutely ******** themselves since Tuesday night.

[johnny karate]

Originally Posted by Brainster

Do you think history will damn them for opposing transwomen competing in women's sports?

The American electorate just did. No one cares about these stupid culture wars except for MAGA cultists. Step out of your Fox News bubble once in a while.

[johnny karate]

This isn’t a real head-scratcher, folks.

The Republican Party went full-blown conspiracy theorist fascist.

If they want to win more elections in the future, they need to stop being conspiracy theorists and fascists. Or at least go back to pretending that they aren’t.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Brainster

I pointed this out yesterday, but Arizona had four state offices on the ballot yesterday--Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. The first three of those offices have some authority over elections, while the Treasurer does not.

The Republican candidate for Treasurer is running away with the race, up over 200,000 votes. The Republican candidates for the other three offices are all losing (although narrowly and with enough votes outstanding to change the outcome). Seems pretty clear that a lot of Republicans crossed over for the top three jobs, then came back to the fold for the Treasurer spot.

In PA it was razor thin between Oz and Fettermen, but the Democratic Governor candiate won easily over the Ultra MAGA GOP governor candidate.
No fan of OZ, and I could argue he was a bad choice, but a lot of voter who could not stomach Mastrionno could stomach OZ.
Of the the PA governor candidate ran a terrible campaign. He never made any effort to win over swing voters, but just spouted the nonsense he uses with his Maga supporters. Maybe ti was because he simply did not know what else to do.
Both parties have a problem with the hard core ideologues often having too much influence in the primaries, but the GOP seem to have a bigger problem here then the Dems do.

[kookbreaker]

Originally Posted by dudalb

In PA it was razor thin between Oz and Fettermen, but the Democratic Governor candiate won easily over the Ultra MAGA GOP governor candidate.
No fan of OZ, and I could argue he was a bad choice, but a lot of voter who could not stomach Mastrionno could stomach OZ.
Of the the PA governor candidate ran a terrible campaign. He never made any effort to win over swing voters, but just spouted the nonsense he uses with his Maga supporters. Maybe ti was because he simply did not know what else to do.
Both parties have a problem with the hard core ideologues often having too much influence in the primaries, but the GOP seem to have a bigger problem here then the Dems do.

Mastriano’s final days ads were just pathetic. He would just say he “fought government lockdowns his entire career”….dude those weren’t a thing until 2020. Honestly he looked lost in those ads.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Richard Nixon created the EPA.... he'd never fit in with the modern GoP.

That is the thing about Nixon...he was a SOB but if you look at a lot of his policies he was pretty much an Eisenhower moderate.

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by dudalb

That is the thing about Nixon...he was a SOB but if you look at a lot of his policies he was pretty much an Eisenhower moderate.

Nixon arguably made China what it is today.

[tyr_13]

Originally Posted by johnny karate

Didn’t cover the spread? Give me a break.

First of all, they haven’t won anything yet, and might not.

Secondly, this isn’t like Republicans we’re slightly off the mark. Joe Biden has a 40% approval rating and inflation is the highest it’s been in generations. This election should have been a blowout. It should have been a repeat of 2010.

That’s how unlikeable and unappealing the Republican Party has become. They turned a slam-dunk election cycle into, best case scenario, a squeaker with a slim majority in one or both chambers, worst case scenario, a loss.

This is a political face-plant of epic proportions, and as much as you want to sugar coat, the entire Republican establishment has been absolutely ******** themselves since Tuesday night.

And all that with the House gerrymandered to an insane degree in favor of the GOP.