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Old 24th October 2006, 05:50 AM   #1
Garvarn
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Carina Landin in test at this moment

At the moment, Carina Landin is being preliminary tested for the JREF Challenge. The test is supposed to take about three hours, and one of the morning papers has promised to post the result later today. I will keep you posted as more information is available.

Until then, this thread provides a background.
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Old 24th October 2006, 10:29 AM   #2
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Carina Landin today failed the preliminary Randi Challenge test conducted in Stockholm by Swedish representatives of the JREF. The test was for Mrs Landin to decide whether 20 different diaries of dead people had belonged to men or women. To succeed, she had to be right on at least 16. Mrs Landin was right on 12, so she failed.

Prior to the test, Mrs Landin today told Svenska Dagbladet that the reason for her to take the test was to show all skeptics that she is in contact with the dead and to make people understand that it is nothing to be afraid of. Allegedly, she is in constant contact with dead people. As the conditions of the Challenge states, Mrs Landin has been involved in and fully accepted the design of the test. She also felt confident regarding the test crew:

- And it feels good that there are scientific scholars present during the test, among them Sven Ove Hansson of the Royal Institute of Technology. I get depressed when people call the likes of me frauds, that's why it's important that this is conducted in a proper way.

It remains to be seen if Mrs Landin will adjust her view on her alleged "ability" in the light of today's result, or if she will continue her psychic business as usual. My own guess is that she will disregard the test on grounds of her just having "a bad day", the test contradicting her own and her client's "experiences" or the standard multitude of excuses provided by the paranormal community. As we have seen before when tests have been done in Sweden, the straightforward alignement with test designs and experimenters prior to testing turn into criticism or even hostility when the results are announced. Mrs Landin's position immediately after the test is that her failure was due to the protocol being violated -- she had requested that the diaries should not be older than the late 1800's, one of them were from the late 1700's and some were from 1850-1880. She is considering to demand a retest but hesitates because the experiment leader has been so nice to her...

In conclusion, the Randi Million is still safe and so is, unfortunately, the convictions of Mrs Landin and her followers.

Interview with Mrs Landin prior to test - in Swedish
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Old 24th October 2006, 10:36 AM   #3
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Thanks for the update.

Can you just confirm (if you know) whether or not the older diaries, the ones she objected to, were the ones she guessed wrong?

Or were they among the 'hits'?

Also, can you confirm why her request regarding the age of the diaries was not complied with?
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Old 24th October 2006, 10:50 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by tkingdoll View Post
Can you just confirm (if you know) whether or not the older diaries, the ones she objected to, were the ones she guessed wrong?
No, I have to get back to you on that. So far, only Landin's comments have been made public.

Originally Posted by tkingdoll View Post
Also, can you confirm why her request regarding the age of the diaries was not complied with?
No. If Landin's objection is indeed accurate, I find it astonishing that the experimenter team didn't comply with Randi's explicit advice: cancel testing as soon as the test subject mentions anything that is not in order. I found it strange that it took them two years to get the test done in the first place. If they've ********d it up by not following the general procedure, the blame is their's.
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Old 24th October 2006, 11:50 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by tkingdoll View Post
can you confirm why her request regarding the age of the diaries was not complied with?
Er, who says it wasn't?

I don't know how good Ms. Landin is as a paleographer, but I'm not necessarily going to take her unsupported word about the age of the diaries.
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Old 24th October 2006, 11:53 AM   #6
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There is one sad thing about this. Those that wish to believe will note that she got over half of the diaries right. They will use that as a reason to believe. The notion that the results were well within the bounds of a chance outcome will not make a difference to them.
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Old 24th October 2006, 12:20 PM   #7
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"Of the 8 wrong one was from 1794 and four were from 1850-1880 I think."

Carina said in an e-mail I just received.
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Old 24th October 2006, 12:27 PM   #8
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I don't understand the age problem. Do people stop being dead after a while or what? Maybe the old spirits doesn't understand the new psychics "high tech" woo.
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Old 24th October 2006, 12:31 PM   #9
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The problem is Carina forgot to eat pizza before her test. If she had eaten pizza, she would have attained a higher score.
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Old 24th October 2006, 12:31 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by case sensitive View Post
I don't understand the age problem.
You don't need to.

Quote:
Do people stop being dead after a while or what? Maybe the old spirits doesn't understand the new psychics "high tech" woo.
Perhaps the personal congenital radiation or whatever wears off after a while. I can tell which lights in a darkened room have been on recently (they're warm), but only for a few minutes.

"Woo" doesn't necessarily follow anything you recognize as scientific laws. If it did follow scientific laws, it would be science, right?
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Old 24th October 2006, 12:41 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by case sensitive View Post
I don't understand the age problem. Do people stop being dead after a while or what? Maybe the old spirits doesn't understand the new psychics "high tech" woo.
I don't understand the "age problem" either, but this is irrelevant. Heck, I don't even understand the nature of her claim; I hear how she explains it and understand the words, but... Also irrelevant.

What matters is - as mentioned before by Chateaubriand - that the test subject should be given anything reasonable she demands. Anything.

We will probably find out more in the next days, concerning the test execution, protocol violations, etc. As with any JREF Preliminary Test, the test subject Ms. Carina Landin has to state before and after the test, if she was satisfied with the conditions offered. The testers should have this on tape and in written.

If they screwed it up by not catering to reasonable demands and if they somehow did not stick to the agreed upon protocol, they will have screwed up royally.

So will have Ms. Landin, if the testers did stick to the protocol.

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Old 24th October 2006, 12:43 PM   #12
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Was the age of the diaries part of the protocol she agreed to? If not, too bad. Any "request" that falls outside of the agreed-upon protocol should be summarily denied anyway.

Was Randi's advice followed in getting her to state, just before the test, that she still believes she can do this and there is no other extenuating circumstance that will prevent her from performing as she intends?

There's simply no way we can anticipate every ad hoc hypothesis used to justify a failed result, so the only thing is to have them say up front that nothing else is "wrong" with the set up.
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Old 24th October 2006, 12:54 PM   #13
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This is a bit sad. I am sure Carina sees it like this:12+5=passed test.
Of course she wants to do it again. There is a lot more at stake than a million. Her beliefs.

Maybe we could help her design a "self-test" of some sort to help her get over her this.
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Old 24th October 2006, 01:31 PM   #14
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This is the text from the protocol regarding the age of the diaries:

"Furthermore (in accordance with Landinís wish) diaries older than the late 19th century are avoided as far ass possible."

I sincerely hope it should read "as possible", but (not butt), in any case, this text is an open invitation for the excuses now presented by Mrs Landin. Even the diffuse "late 19th century" makes it possible to explain away the results if only one diary from 1875 had been used. As it reads now, Landin and her follower would be fools not to exploit this opening to the fullest. Isn't there something in the JREF documents regarding these kinds of blurry conditions?

Proposed arrangement of a preliminary test of Carina Landin
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Old 24th October 2006, 01:41 PM   #15
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The selection of diaries had a lot of constraints. They had to have no marking on the covers which might give a clue to the owner, they could not be excessively "feminine" or "masculine," they had to be deemed by the archivist to be sturdy enough to handle, the users had to be known to be male or female, diaries with multiple users were excluded. Does anyone know the size of this diary archive? I imagine it would take well over a hundred diaries to get 30 appropriate ones.
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Old 24th October 2006, 01:58 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by ChristineR View Post
I imagine it would take well over a hundred diaries to get 30 appropriate ones.
I believe it was decided that 20 diaries were enough, randomly picked, i.e. no stated division between "male" and "female". But I don't see why the particulars of the diaries make allowance for a blurry condition.
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Old 24th October 2006, 02:25 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by case sensitive View Post
"Of the 8 wrong one was from 1794 and four were from 1850-1880 I think."

Carina said in an e-mail I just received.
Of the twelve right answers how many were from before 1850?

Robert
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Old 24th October 2006, 02:26 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Chateaubriand View Post
I believe it was decided that 20 diaries were enough, randomly picked, i.e. no stated division between "male" and "female". But I don't see why the particulars of the diaries make allowance for a blurry condition.
The protocol you linked to called for 15 male and 15 female and a coin flip to determine which pile the next diary came from. In the event of more than 15 flips coming up the same the sequence was discarded and restarted. That's where I got thirty.

Jeff Wagg's comment in the applications topic seems to imply that the diaries were not "too old" and that Carina only felt that they were too old.

I don't recall where I saw it, but I think Carina may have said something about spirit ties to the objects fading with time. It sounds plausible enough until you start thinking about it.
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Old 24th October 2006, 02:48 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by ChristineR View Post
...
It sounds plausible enough until you start thinking about it.
This makes for great sig material. Do I have your permission, ChristineR?



Perhaps we shall wait for the "official" protocols from Mr. Hansson to be acknowledged and posted here by Jeff. Don't worry, I'm curious, too.
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Old 24th October 2006, 03:54 PM   #20
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OK, the challenge results are officially "UNDER REVIEW."

We're awaiting data on the books. If they were in fact too old, the results of this challenge will be null and void, and the challenge will need to be re-run with a completely different set of diaries.

I'll keep you updated.
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Old 24th October 2006, 04:19 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
Er, who says it wasn't?

I don't know how good Ms. Landin is as a paleographer, but I'm not necessarily going to take her unsupported word about the age of the diaries.
I find it highly unlikely that she made up those dates, given Jeff's comment here.

As it stands, it looks like the wording of the protocol was vague enough to allow for this issue to arise, which is unfortunate.

Last edited by tkingdoll; 24th October 2006 at 04:27 PM.
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Old 24th October 2006, 04:22 PM   #22
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Frankly, I'm stll skeptical.
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Old 24th October 2006, 04:51 PM   #23
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Me too.

And don't call me Frankly.
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Old 24th October 2006, 05:35 PM   #24
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Shortly, I'll be making my own challenge.
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Old 24th October 2006, 05:41 PM   #25
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Indeterminately, maybe I won't.
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Old 24th October 2006, 05:56 PM   #26
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How did she know the diaries were older than they were supposed to be? :\
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Old 24th October 2006, 06:01 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by GzuzKryzt View Post
This makes for great sig material. Do I have your permission, ChristineR?



Perhaps we shall wait for the "official" protocols from Mr. Hansson to be acknowledged and posted here by Jeff. Don't worry, I'm curious, too.
Naturally! Quote away.
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Old 24th October 2006, 06:11 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Dazed View Post
How did she know the diaries were older than they were supposed to be? :\
If you follow the link in my last post, Jeff provides the answer.
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Old 24th October 2006, 06:16 PM   #29
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"It seems that some of the diaries were older than was stipulated by the claimant's protocol."

That doesn't explain how she knew that. Unless I'm missing something. I had read that already by the way.
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Old 24th October 2006, 06:18 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Dazed View Post
"It seems that some of the diaries were older than was stipulated by the claimant's protocol."

That doesn't explain how she knew that. Unless I'm missing something. I had read that already by the way.
I was referring to this bit:

Quote:
She has been given access to the history of the diaries to verify their authenticity.
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Old 24th October 2006, 06:22 PM   #31
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Oh, thanks, duh.

Well, I doubt she'll do any better with newer diaries, but good luck to her.
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Old 24th October 2006, 06:56 PM   #32
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Am I the only one thinking 12 out of 20 isn't too bad.

I'm not good with statistics so what are the odds that she could get 12 out of 20 right?

I know it doesn't really matter, but I'd be curious to hear about her reasons for not using the older diaries.
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Old 24th October 2006, 08:37 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
I'm not good with statistics so what are the odds that she could get 12 out of 20 right?
About the same as getting 12 heads (or 12 tails) in 20 coin tosses.
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Old 24th October 2006, 10:45 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Am I the only one thinking 12 out of 20 isn't too bad.
Sort of like the parapsychologists' study results that show an effect that is "nearly statistically significant." That means no effect was demonstrated. That's exactly why you agree on the number you have to make. There's no interpretation of results. Either she got at least 16 right, or she didn't. Even 15 right would have been a failure, and would have meant nothing. If she'd gotten 16 or more right, then the next step is to try for a replication. (Yes, it's unlikely, but chance can result in 16 or more right--even 20 right.)

It's a shame about the dated diaries, if that was part of the protocol. Has anyone heard whether the source of diaries can come up with 20 more (not reusing the same ones) that fit all the requirements?
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Old 25th October 2006, 01:29 AM   #35
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Spindrift's comment could be a prophecy of worse things to come.
Let us consider a possible scenario.
She is retested and comes up with 11 to 15 correct answers.
JREF sais that is a fail, goodbye.
She says: "Thank you for giving me a scientific assessment of my abilities. It appears that I am very good but not as good as I thought. I can now tell everybody that I have been tested twice and I have always been more right than wrong. There is still a lot to learn about these powers."

What does JREF do? Grin and bear it or offer to test her until she scores a 9/20? If she accepts and by chance gets >10, say, 5 tests in a row, it would still be a long way from statistical significance within reasonable confidence limits, but at that point she would be on all the tabloids as The Psychic Who Is Always More Right Than Wrong.
It could evolve in a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation.
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Old 25th October 2006, 01:42 AM   #36
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That's the basic problem with the JREF challenge: I't only really good when people don't dare to take it.

Hans
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Old 25th October 2006, 02:43 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg
After the test, she was concerned that two of the books were older than what she had asked for. She has been given access to the history of the diaries to verify their authenticity. (source)
Was she told of the age of the diaries before or after the test? If before, did she raise the objection before the test, or only afterwards?
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Old 25th October 2006, 03:48 AM   #38
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Carina says there will be a re-run.
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Old 25th October 2006, 03:58 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Am I the only one thinking 12 out of 20 isn't too bad.

I'm not good with statistics so what are the odds that she could get 12 out of 20 right?

I know it doesn't really matter, but I'd be curious to hear about her reasons for not using the older diaries.
The diaries "psychometric-smell" fades after some time. That is how I understand it. The test have nothing to do with the dead Carina claims. I agree.
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Old 25th October 2006, 05:16 AM   #40
Paul2
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Join Date: Nov 2004
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Why is 16 out of 20 successful and 15 out of 20 isn't? Is it just because that's what was agreed to, more or less arbitrarily, or is there a statistical, mathematical reason?
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