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Old 17th October 2022, 12:22 AM   #41
jeremyp
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
If Putin ends up face-down in his stroganoff, it will be because the financial impact of the war is hurting the interests of the oligarchs.
That's what I used to think but there are people pushing the narrative that Russia is losing because they are not being ruthless enough and these people are also vying for power.


Quote:
Nuking Ukraine into oblivion won't make money for anyone. Putin built a kleptocracy and now the kleptocrats can't earn.
But not everybody in Russia is a kleptocrat. Some are ultra nationalists. Putin didn't start this war to appease the people who want to make more money.

ETA: If Putin was concerned about his cronies' money making opportunities more than other threats to his power, this war would never have happened.

Last edited by jeremyp; 17th October 2022 at 12:25 AM. Reason: Expand on answer.
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Old 17th October 2022, 02:08 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
That's what I used to think but there are people pushing the narrative that Russia is losing because they are not being ruthless enough and these people are also vying for power.



But not everybody in Russia is a kleptocrat. Some are ultra nationalists. Putin didn't start this war to appease the people who want to make more money.

ETA: If Putin was concerned about his cronies' money making opportunities more than other threats to his power, this war would never have happened.
Murdering Putin, a laudable goal, is the ultimate in how-to projects. It would take a level of resources the ideologues don't have. You could get lucky and there's an ultra nationalist body guard who takes him out for the glory of the Motherland and then takes two in the chest.

To do a proper job of it, including moving in to take over, killing or capturing the other controllers of national power before the body is cold would take a lot of resources.
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Old 17th October 2022, 02:59 AM   #43
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Some tankies look like they may be trying to push "this war is designed to be continuous (by US/NATO military industrial complex and leaders), not to be won."

Needless to say, that's facepalm territory, as usual.
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Old 17th October 2022, 05:50 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
To poke at something said on the last thread about Musk claiming to be losing money on Starlink in Ukraine, despite Poland, the UK, and the US already paying for most of it, his numbers don't make sense.

If the rates he claims he'll be able to offer Starlink service for generally are correct, Starlink has made at least a small profit off the units sent to Ukraine. If the costs cited in the letter to the Pentagon are correct, then Starlink will not be a viable operation at the rates Musk says he will continue to offer to the rest of the planet.

Most of the units sent to Ukraine are the home units, with plans between $60-150 USD, yet Starlink claims it costs them $4,500 a month each unit.

At least some part of this is nonsense, possibly all of it.
Someone may have 'pointed that out' to him... he recently changed his course on this.

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The hell with it … even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free
2:06 PM · Oct 15, 2022
·Twitter for iPhone
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Old 17th October 2022, 05:53 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
The free world cannot accept so-called referendums conducted during war or foreign occupation. Therefore Ukraine does have the right to try to retake Crimea. Unless we start seeing mass demonstrations there in support of the Russian annexation.
Mass demonstrations by the Russian populace that has moved into the Crimea since 2014, replacing the Ukrainians who were deported to Russia? Those mass demonstrations?
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Old 17th October 2022, 06:14 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Mass demonstrations by the Russian populace that has moved into the Crimea since 2014, replacing the Ukrainians who were deported to Russia? Those mass demonstrations?

I suspect most of those transplanted Russians already have or soon will flee back to Russia, so I don't think we need to worry about any mass demonstrations. But your point that even if such do occur they will be illegitimate is still well taken.
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Old 17th October 2022, 06:19 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
Someone may have 'pointed that out' to him... he recently changed his course on this.
All that money, and he refuses to spend any of it on a PR guy. This should be so simple.

Or maybe pettulant rich guy is the image he is going for. I don't know.
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Old 17th October 2022, 06:32 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Olmstead View Post
All that money, and he refuses to spend any of it on a PR guy. This should be so simple.

Or maybe pettulant rich guy is the image he is going for. I don't know.
And by 'pointed it out' I mean, might have reminded him how much $$ in incentive money he's gotten over the last 15 years.
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Old 17th October 2022, 06:46 AM   #49
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Companies aren't charities. At some point, it might have been perfectly reasonable (and just due course of business) to ask for more money.

He didn't help himself, though, by publishing his 'peace plan' before that. It just makes him look stupid and petty.
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Old 17th October 2022, 06:53 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
Companies aren't charities. At some point, it might have been perfectly reasonable (and just due course of business) to ask for more money.

He didn't help himself, though, by publishing his 'peace plan' before that. It just makes him look stupid and petty.
It's also a bit rich making a big deal about your charitable actions and then asking for payment for them.
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Old 17th October 2022, 07:08 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It's also a bit rich making a big deal about your charitable actions and then asking for payment for them.
I don't twit. I've only got an account to follow some other twits. I've felt that a problem with it, from the beginning, is that it's too fast and makes it too easy to share passing thoughts with too many people. Who of us hasn't had weird thoughts (or what might be considered out-of-character thoughts)? If you don't twit them right away, you have at least a few minutes to reflect. Even here, we're able to go back and edit posts. Stream of consciousness posting brings a host of issues.

His peace plan, or on the one hand acknowledging donations, and on the other, thinking about asking for money, is something else. He should have stayed up late at night drinking with a buddy and floating those ideas then. He's a very public face on a couple of disruptive companies, and in Ukraine, lives may be hanging on his words. But, I guess, Elon is gonna do Elon...
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Old 17th October 2022, 08:56 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
I don't twit. I've only got an account to follow some other twits. I've felt that a problem with it, from the beginning, is that it's too fast and makes it too easy to share passing thoughts with too many people. Who of us hasn't had weird thoughts (or what might be considered out-of-character thoughts)? If you don't twit them right away, you have at least a few minutes to reflect. Even here, we're able to go back and edit posts. Stream of consciousness posting brings a host of issues.

His peace plan, or on the one hand acknowledging donations, and on the other, thinking about asking for money, is something else. He should have stayed up late at night drinking with a buddy and floating those ideas then. He's a very public face on a couple of disruptive companies, and in Ukraine, lives may be hanging on his words. But, I guess, Elon is gonna do Elon...
I think the most dangerous thing about this - leaving aside the possible disruption of Starlink in Ukraine - is that the Musk fanbois will now be of the opinion that the only rational thing to do is to adopt Musk's appeasement plan and force Ukraine to stop fighting by, for example, putting pressure on the US government to stop supplying weapons. I'm already seeing comments by Musk fans elsewhere to this effect.

ETA: By the way, I think your diagnosis of the problem with Twitter is right on the nail. I would add that, also, the main stream media loves it because the sound bytes are ready made.

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Old 17th October 2022, 09:18 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
ETA: By the way, I think your diagnosis of the problem with Twitter is right on the nail. I would add that, also, the main stream media loves it because the sound bytes are ready made.
Bit of a derail, but apropos:

It's funny how you've put twitter and the MSM right in the same paragraph. I had an encounter years ago which informed my opinions of both.

I was the subject of a 'streeter.' The reporter asked me a question, and I responded that given only a few seconds to think about it, I was sorry, but couldn't form a good answer. She turned away to talk to others. Just for fun, while we were waiting for a walk light I raised my fist into the air and shouted (it was a court case), "He's guilty as heck and should fry goddamit!" I think I even jumped a bit for my own amusement (hint - it was already a foregone conclusion that he was (and was ultimately found to be) innocent). Anyway, she turned back to me and asked, "Why couldn't you have said that a minute ago?"

Some journalists see value in doing streeters, and others hate it! Good journalists, who want to get to the heart of the story, are sometimes at odds with their editors or publishers. A lot of really good work gets lumped in with a lot of utter nonsense all under the broad brush strokes of mainstream media. With this mixed bag, you can't always trust mainstream media, but there is nothing else you can trust more! At least some of the journalists actually care. It's very similar (in this thread, for example) to labels like democracy and science. As broad categories of human activity, they sometimes have very grievous things to answer for... but they are still better than all the rest!
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Old 17th October 2022, 09:41 AM   #54
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Musk is spouting off about appeasement again. From his Twitter:
If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will choose the latter.

We’ve already sanctioned/cutoff Russia in every possible way, so what more do they have left to lose?

If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us and then we have WW3.
So much ignorance in so few words.
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Old 17th October 2022, 10:00 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Musk is spouting off about appeasement again. From his Twitter:
If Russia is faced with the choice of losing Crimea or using battlefield nukes, they will choose the latter.

We’ve already sanctioned/cutoff Russia in every possible way, so what more do they have left to lose?

If we nuke Russia back, they will nuke us and then we have WW3.
So much ignorance in so few words.
This makes me even more certain that Putin won't even contemplate to use nukes as anything more than threats - he is using Musk to scare the West, which means that he is bluffing.
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Old 17th October 2022, 10:01 AM   #56
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I think there's a difference between appeasement - giving a bully what they say they want, in the hope/belief that this will be the end of their demands - and negotiating some kind of quid pro quo with someone who is in a strong negotiating position.

I've been saying all along that there are corners Russia/Putin could be backed into where escalating use of nuclear weapons seems like their best option. And I've been saying all along that I would rather try to keep from backing Russia into one of those corners - even if it means negotiating some sort of quid pro quo.

If you go back to the beginning of this thread, there's been a fairly consistent narrative that NATO* cannot intervene more robustly or decisively, because Russia has nukes and nobody wants to incite them to start a nuclear war. We'd rather help the Ukrainians grind out however many Ukrainian casualties it takes to win this the "safe" way, rather than just end it tomorrow and then find out whether Putin is bluffing or not.

So it's a bit rich now to see people saying we should just keep grinding this out until Russia's destruction and humiliation is so thorough that nukes are the only thing they have left, and they cannot imagine conceding. If it's gonna be like that, then we should just let slip the dogs of NATO* air power tonight, and put Ukraine in Crimea by the end of the week. Get it over with.
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Old 17th October 2022, 10:01 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
This makes me even more certain that Putin won't even contemplate to use nukes as anything more than threats - he is using Musk to scare the West, which means that he is bluffing.
Too conspiracy-theoretical for my taste.
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Old 17th October 2022, 10:50 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Too conspiracy-theoretical for my taste.
Musk has made himself a "useful idiot". Theres no doubt in my mind about that. Its only whether Russia actually made that happen or Musk did it to himself that is unknown. I don't see how its proof that they won't really use a nuke though.
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Old 17th October 2022, 10:54 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Too conspiracy-theoretical for my taste.
gien Musk's personality, he would think it's his idea, not Putin's, to tell the world how serious Putin is about using nukes.
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Old 17th October 2022, 11:05 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Musk has made himself a "useful idiot". Theres no doubt in my mind about that. Its only whether Russia actually made that happen or Musk did it to himself that is unknown. I don't see how its proof that they won't really use a nuke though.
Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
gien Musk's personality, he would think it's his idea, not Putin's, to tell the world how serious Putin is about using nukes.
That's nice. Can we get back to talking about the war itself, and leave Musk's state of mind and epistemology for some other thread?
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Old 17th October 2022, 11:10 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think there's a difference between appeasement - giving a bully what they say they want, in the hope/belief that this will be the end of their demands - and negotiating some kind of quid pro quo with someone who is in a strong negotiating position.
Yes the quid is returning to the Jan 1st 2014 borders, paying reparations in full for all damages caused in Ukraine, returning those kidnapped, and admitting publicly in view of everybody that Russia, at all levels, committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. The quo is Putain doesn't get his head separated from his neck.
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Old 17th October 2022, 11:12 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Gulliver Foyle View Post
Yes the quid is returning to the Jan 1st 2014 borders, paying reparations in full for all damages caused in Ukraine, returning those kidnapped, and admitting publicly in view of everybody that Russia, at all levels, committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. The quo is Putain doesn't get his head separated from his neck.
Already addressed in the remainder of my post, which you snipped for some reason. Except for the part about credibly threatening Putin's life if he doesn't concede, which is just delusional.
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Old 17th October 2022, 11:21 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think there's a difference between appeasement - giving a bully what they say they want, in the hope/belief that this will be the end of their demands - and negotiating some kind of quid pro quo with someone who is in a strong negotiating position.

I've been saying all along that there are corners Russia/Putin could be backed into where escalating use of nuclear weapons seems like their best option. And I've been saying all along that I would rather try to keep from backing Russia into one of those corners - even if it means negotiating some sort of quid pro quo.

If you go back to the beginning of this thread, there's been a fairly consistent narrative that NATO* cannot intervene more robustly or decisively, because Russia has nukes and nobody wants to incite them to start a nuclear war. We'd rather help the Ukrainians grind out however many Ukrainian casualties it takes to win this the "safe" way, rather than just end it tomorrow and then find out whether Putin is bluffing or not.

So it's a bit rich now to see people saying we should just keep grinding this out until Russia's destruction and humiliation is so thorough that nukes are the only thing they have left, and they cannot imagine conceding. If it's gonna be like that, then we should just let slip the dogs of NATO* air power tonight, and put Ukraine in Crimea by the end of the week. Get it over with.
I'm assuming your last point was not serious. (I seriously hope so, anyway.)
What, then, would be your preferred solution? What kind of compromise do you suggest, and how would you expect to sell that to Ukraine?
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Old 17th October 2022, 11:28 AM   #64
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A Russian military aircraft has crashed into a residential block in Russia:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...45969709174784

I'm a complete layman, but this seems like something that should absolutely never happen in completely uncontested territory.
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Old 17th October 2022, 11:30 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
That's nice. Can we get back to talking about the war itself, and leave Musk's state of mind and epistemology for some other thread?
Unfortunately, the state of mind of influencers in the West regarding the War is very much relevant.
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Old 17th October 2022, 11:48 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by Olmstead View Post
A Russian military aircraft has crashed into a residential block in Russia:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...45969709174784

I'm a complete layman, but this seems like something that should absolutely never happen in completely uncontested territory.
I mean... an analog of that did happen in peace time by the USAAF* over American soil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_E...ing_B-25_crash

That said, navigation aids have come along ways in 77 years I'm told, but maybe not for Russia?

*SIC
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Old 17th October 2022, 11:58 AM   #67
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Russia's stuff is in such bad shape I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of them just decided to randomly fall out of the sky.
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Old 17th October 2022, 12:00 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
I'm assuming your last point was not serious. (I seriously hope so, anyway.)
What, then, would be your preferred solution? What kind of compromise do you suggest, and how would you expect to sell that to Ukraine?
I've been saying roughly the same since this started. And I was at no point, kidding.

For any logical person being defeated because NATO is sharing technology, equipment, and intelligence is no different than being defeated because NATO pilots are in the air over Ukraine. Russia's response to being defeated SHOULD be no different in either case. So, if NATO keeps supporting Ukraine well enough that Russia's defeat through conventional arms is inevitable, and its inevitable that Russia then resorts to WMD... and its inevitable that that leads to WW3, well lets just get it over with with a pre-emptive strike. If we hit them first then the damage they can deal will be greatly reduced. I'm not kidding, and I don't have a death wish.

I have, however, realized that there's actual logic and then there's "Russia logic". So in that manner maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it does matter to Putin that there aren't actual NATO pilots over Ukraine? I mean it was no secret that the Soviets had pilots over Korea (and secretly but known over Vietnam) yet we didn't start WW3 over it.
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Old 17th October 2022, 12:03 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Olmstead View Post
A Russian military aircraft has crashed into a residential block in Russia:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...45969709174784

I'm a complete layman, but this seems like something that should absolutely never happen in completely uncontested territory.
Apparently staying at the controls in order to try and avoid any ground casualties isn't a thing in Russia.

https://twitter.com/KralovecStepan/s...70616978378752
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Old 17th October 2022, 12:04 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I mean... an analog of that did happen in peace time by the USAAF* over American soil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_E...ing_B-25_crash

That said, navigation aids have come along ways in 77 years I'm told, but maybe not for Russia?

*SIC
Based on reports and some other videos, this one seemed to have been equipment failure rather than human error.

I've read that Russian reports are suggesting a bird strike. That sounds plausible, but I wonder if they're cutting corners on maintenance.

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Old 17th October 2022, 12:09 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
I'm assuming your last point was not serious. (I seriously hope so, anyway.)
What, then, would be your preferred solution? What kind of compromise do you suggest, and how would you expect to sell that to Ukraine?
My preferred solution is some sort of diplomatic-intelligence arrangement with some faction close to Putin, that has a vested interest in ousting Putin, withdrawing from Ukraine, licking their wounds, and living to try again some other day - a day that will likely never come, or in any case won't come soon enough to prevent us from working out some other better long term outcome.

However, if we're confident that Putin and his cronies won't resort to nukes no matter how hard they are pressed in Ukraine, or how thoroughly they are driven from the country, then why not escalate right now, and get this over with right now? Why do Ukrainians have to keep fighting and dying, week after week, month after month, while we trickle in our leftovers and hand-me-downs?

On the other hand, if we're seriously concerned that we could at some point push Putin into a nuclear corner, by continued progress in liberating Ukraine, then I would "prefer" something like this:

* Having figured out more or less where Putin's breaking point is likely to be, and

* Being reasonable certain that point has been or soon will be reached,

* Offer him some amount of territory already occupied (Crimea, for example), and

* Some reduction of sanctions and some renunciation of war crimes prosecutions;

* In exchange for cessation of hostilities, renunciation of further claims in Ukraine, and repatriation of all the kidnapped Ukrainians.

ETA: As for selling it to Ukraine, that part is obvious.
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Old 17th October 2022, 12:18 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
I've been saying roughly the same since this started. And I was at no point, kidding.

For any logical person being defeated because NATO is sharing technology, equipment, and intelligence is no different than being defeated because NATO pilots are in the air over Ukraine. Russia's response to being defeated SHOULD be no different in either case. So, if NATO keeps supporting Ukraine well enough that Russia's defeat through conventional arms is inevitable, and its inevitable that Russia then resorts to WMD... and its inevitable that that leads to WW3, well lets just get it over with with a pre-emptive strike. If we hit them first then the damage they can deal will be greatly reduced. I'm not kidding, and I don't have a death wish.

I have, however, realized that there's actual logic and then there's "Russia logic". So in that manner maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it does matter to Putin that there aren't actual NATO pilots over Ukraine? I mean it was no secret that the Soviets had pilots over Korea (and secretly but known over Vietnam) yet we didn't start WW3 over it.
I think we* didn't start WW3 over Soviet involvement in earlier proxy wars because in that period we were pretty confident that we were playing Brinkmanship with rational actors who understood game theory and its geopolitical applications.

I've seen it proposed (on reddit, so grain of salt etc.) that prolonging Russia's humiliation only cements their sense of injustice and despair, and only increases their likelihood of preferring nuclear war to continued suffering. And therefor that a swift and decisive end to the conflict is more likely to shock them into accepting the defeat and giving up the dream of Ukraine or Death.
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Old 17th October 2022, 12:51 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I think we* didn't start WW3 over Soviet involvement in earlier proxy wars because in that period we were pretty confident that we were playing Brinkmanship with rational actors who understood game theory and its geopolitical applications.

I've seen it proposed (on reddit, so grain of salt etc.) that prolonging Russia's humiliation only cements their sense of injustice and despair, and only increases their likelihood of preferring nuclear war to continued suffering. And therefor that a swift and decisive end to the conflict is more likely to shock them into accepting the defeat and giving up the dream of Ukraine or Death.
I see that as well.

Scenario A: NATO goes in guns a blazing. Wars over in days, the vast majority of the Russian military surrenders and becomes PoW's. They're allowed to call their wife or mother back home and let them know they are OK. Most Russian's are probably going to be for a negotiated peace to get their sons and husbands back. Putins backed into a corner, but the Russian people are in no mood to support a nuclear strike.

Scenario B: the war keeps on dragging on over the winter. The conscripts that Putin sent to Ukraine mostly either come back home in a body bag, WIA, or missing a limb or two from frostbite. This is exactly what Putin wants. Practically everyone back in Russia knows a soldier who has died or is crippled by the war. There's widespread absolute hatred of Ukrainians and "the west". Victory in Ukraine by any means is widely supported. Putin knows if he's ousted he's dead and the only means to survive is force Ukrainians surrender with nuclear weapons and then hope that the West doesn't strike back.
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Old 17th October 2022, 01:18 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
Apparently staying at the controls in order to try and avoid any ground casualties isn't a thing in Russia.

https://twitter.com/KralovecStepan/s...70616978378752
Looking at the map, it's a lousy situation if the wind's from the East. As soon as you clear the airfield perimeter you're over the town, and you have to clear 2 miles of it to reach the coast. He got a mile and a half.
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Old 17th October 2022, 01:19 PM   #75
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It will take one Russian hero to give the Russians an out.
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Old 17th October 2022, 02:11 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Looking at the map, it's a lousy situation if the wind's from the East. As soon as you clear the airfield perimeter you're over the town, and you have to clear 2 miles of it to reach the coast. He got a mile and a half.
Yes. I remember hearing that fighter jets like that are horrible at unpowered gliding, so in fairness to the pilot, he might have been out of options and did eject at almost the last moment (I've actually read reports that there were two people who ejected).

I'm not holding my breath for a proper investigation though. Can't have the military look bad for plowing into a residential block. I doubt this would have happened if Russia wasn't stretching itself thin to keep their occupation going, so now they get to add their own civilians to the list of causalties they've caused.
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Old 17th October 2022, 03:13 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by Olmstead View Post
. I doubt this would have happened if Russia wasn't stretching itself thin to keep their occupation going, so now they get to add their own civilians to the list of causalties they've caused.
Last year, the Brits flew a brand-new F-35B into the Mediterranean bathtub, due to an ingested intake cover. Stuff happens in the military. The Russians have demonstrated gross incompetence in this conflict, but it may be too early to tie this to the conflict, specifically.
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Old 17th October 2022, 04:53 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
If Putin is gone, 80+% of the efforts of the Russian State will go into finding and taking his billions.
When Putin goes, Russia will descend into another "Time Of Troubles".
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Old 17th October 2022, 04:55 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
Some tankies look like they may be trying to push "this war is designed to be continuous (by US/NATO military industrial complex and leaders), not to be won."

Needless to say, that's facepalm territory, as usual.
What amazes me about the Tankies is they have fooled themsleves into thinking that PUtin is still a Communist at heart.
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Old 17th October 2022, 04:59 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Musk has made himself a "useful idiot". Theres no doubt in my mind about that. Its only whether Russia actually made that happen or Musk did it to himself that is unknown. I don't see how its proof that they won't really use a nuke though.
Musk has throughly wrecked his public image as "A Real Life Tony Stark" over the past year. I guess that Time Man Of The Year Award drove his ego into La La Land.
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