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#121 |
Muse
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 521
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Once again this is where allowing anything less than 100% is wrong.
To all of her believers out there who are possibly reading this. Do you realise that if she gets even 18 out of 20, for every 20 people she 'reads' or whatever it is she does, 2 of you are getting completely wrong, wrong, wrong information. Which of you is it??? |
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. So the gods gave us Leprosy because.......? |
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#122 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,098
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Just to let you know.. we're still reviewing this. It's going to take a bit of time to sort out as we're dealing with translations and such. If a final determination is made, I'll post it.
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#123 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 27,766
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#124 |
Bacontologist
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 317
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With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion. -Steven Weinberg, winner of the 1979 Nobel Prize in physics |
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#125 |
Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 199
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#126 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,180
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There is no reason why a paranormal ability needs to be 100% accurate, and there's no reason to suspect that Landin's power, even if it exists and is 100% accurate all of the time would be 100% accurate at determining the sex of someone who wrote a diary.
I think she would have preferred her normal techniques, which appears to be warm reading and relies heavily on plausible but unverifiable scenarios ("I see a woman walking by a farmhouse"). Sex was chosen because it's binary (except in a few extraordinary cases). |
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Avatar (c) Neopets.com |
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#127 |
Defollyant Iconoclast
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,018
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Oddly enough, a whole lot better than her getting 120 correct out of 200, or 1200 correct out of 2000, provided she's operating, as sceptics expect, at chance levels.
The probability of getting exactly 12 correct out of 20 is 12.0%, while that of getting 12 or more correct out of 20 is 25.2%, i.e. one in four tests will by pure chance show a result of 12 or more correct out of 20. Not very convincing, that. Compare this to a probability of 0.18% of her getting 120 or more correct out of 200. Such a result would occur by pure chance about once in 550 tests. The pass criterion of 16 or more correct out of 20 occurring by pure chance has a probability of 0.59%, i.e. about once in 169 tests. 'Luthon64 |
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"The cynics were watchdogs terrifying malefactors. They tried to expose falseness and conceit. That's why their name is still spoken with a snarl." — Petr Skrabanek, In Defence of Destructive Criticism. |
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#128 |
Masterblazer
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Montreal, Quebec
Posts: 6,838
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Almo! My Music Blog "No society ever collapsed because the poor had too much." — LeftySergeant "It may be that there is no body really at rest, to which the places and motions of others may be referred." –Issac Newton in the Principia |
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#129 |
Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 202
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Anyone heard anything about the progress of the JREF review of this test?
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#130 |
Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 202
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The experiment leader has published an account of Landin's full result. Here are the ages of the 20 diaries and Landin's guesses (R=right, W=wrong):
1787 - R 1794 - W 1800 - R 1825 - R 1828 - R 1831 - R 1879 - W 1859 - W 1860 - W 1867 - R 1881 - R 1889 - W 1896 - R 1895 - R 1932 - W 1935 - R 1943 - W 1953 - W 1963 - R 1961 - R Her argument that "too old diaries" are the cause of her poor results is thus complete BS. |
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#131 |
Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 231
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John Edward: But, I'm a psychic. Stan Marsh: No, dude. You're a douche. John Edward: I'm not a douche. What if I really believed dead people talk to me? Stan Marsh: Then, you're a stupid douche! ![]() |
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#132 |
Thinker
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 193
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#133 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 359
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To be fair to her, she shows a 100% record with diaries written in the early 60's.
Before I'd seen these results, the suggested compromise for me would have been along the lines of: let us work out a percentage required to define success. In this case it would be 75%. Now let us remove the earlier diaries and recalculate the result based on her guesses from among the remaining diaries. Let's eliminate all diaries before 1850, based on the fuzzy insertion in the protocol. This leaves 14 diaries, and a result of 50-50. An exact split which rather conveniently matches chance outcome. |
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#134 |
Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 231
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John Edward: But, I'm a psychic. Stan Marsh: No, dude. You're a douche. John Edward: I'm not a douche. What if I really believed dead people talk to me? Stan Marsh: Then, you're a stupid douche! ![]() |
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#135 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,596
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Chateaubriand
Thanks for posting the information. It does appear that age of the diary had no bearing on her success rate. |
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Beth "You are not the stuff of which you are made." Richard Dawkins, July 2005, 10:45 http://www.ted.com/talks/richard_daw..._universe.html |
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#136 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 359
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#137 |
Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 202
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Sure. The columns are, from the left:
# in test / Right gender / Gender according to Carina Landin / Right or wrong (+ / -) / Archive file / Description / Year M = Male (Swedish "Man") K = Female (Swedish "Kvinna") Link: The Diaries in the Test With Carina Landin, 24th Oct. 2006 |
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#138 |
Master baiter - I fish!
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 967
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Is there any word from Landin regarding this new information?
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#139 |
Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 202
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I just looked through her website. No comment as of yet. I also listened to a radio interview done on the morning after the test. It gave me a hunch of what Landin will be emphasizing -- that this was a psychometric test that has nothing to do with contacting the dead. So, for Landin it will be business as usual as far as her mediumship goes.
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#140 |
New Blood
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1
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If she's talking about a fading 'smell', that's not even necessarily supernatural.
Humans often handle their diaries a great deal- and cover them in pheromones. A dog could easily pick out which diaries are male and female after a hundred years if trained to do so, and while a large part of human pheromone detection has become subconscious, if she's actually smelling the diaries, it's perfectly within the bounds of olfactory science that she could get a slight statistical lead on the sex of the diary owners. I do believe it has been shown experimentally that people of different sexual orientations can smell and almost always prefer certain pheromone combinations from other humans of compatible orientations. Women can also smell fear pheromones. Granted, if she did manage to pick that up with perfect accuracy after a hundred years that would be a rather impressive sniffer- but nothing supernatural. Even 20 for 20, consistently, this lady would not be demonstrating something supernatural. However, put the things in a plastic bag, and then you might have something. |
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#141 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,363
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Thanks for the update, Chateaubriand.
I am looking forward to the comments of Ms. Landin. |
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#142 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
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She did pretty good on the oldest diaries. With the guessing.
Is there really any need for a retest here? Diary age didn't hold her back, so it's an odd complaint for her to make. Looking forward to the updates and her comments; thanks to the Swedes and the Chateaubriands for keeping us appraised. |
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#143 |
red-shirted crewman
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,661
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It is clear from the distribution that she was simply grasping at an available straw, but that her excuses are obviously unjustified. I don't see that a retest should be necessary. However, she did attempt to place a limit on the ages of the diaries, and diaries that were too old were used. If she insists, a retest may be unavoidable.
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Aurora Walking Vacation "A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding."--Marshall McLuhan |
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#144 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 21,711
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Considering this result, IMHO there is no need for a retest. While you could accuse the testers of a protocol flaw, it obviously did not impact her results negatively, and anyway, she has approved of the protocol.
Let her make another application in a year, if she will, as the rules stipulate. End of story. Hans |
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If you love life, you must accept the traces it leaves. |
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#145 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 24,312
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But in a year's time
1. The general public may not be able to apply. 2. She would need three people to say she can do amazing things 3. She needs to be still of the belief that she can do it. The R and Ws appear to be random. The test I applied. About 50% of Rs follow a W and 50% of Ws follow a R. |
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#146 |
New Blood
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 5
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A linear regression of the test result shows that for 1=right, 0=wrong, the best fit line (in the least square sense) is
0.8 - [# of years after 1700]*0.0013 Indeed, if the trend continues she should be focusing on older books! |
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#147 |
Muse
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 519
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#148 |
Muse
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 624
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Just in: according to the swedish skeptics Randi is ok with a retest. Of course a new protocol has to be approved by him.
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#149 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,596
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__________________
Beth "You are not the stuff of which you are made." Richard Dawkins, July 2005, 10:45 http://www.ted.com/talks/richard_daw..._universe.html |
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#150 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 21,629
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#151 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 2,608
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#152 |
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Salem, Oregon
Posts: 17,134
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Who is "Kaz?" Read about her at www.StopKaz.com. Curious about Sylvia Browne? Read about her at www.StopSylvia.com. Ever wonder "What's the Harm?" with psychics, alternative medicine, etc? |
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#153 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,433
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Oh yeah... appraised/apprised. D'oh.
So to clarify, Swedes and Chateaubriand: how much are we worth? |
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#154 |
Thinker
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 199
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For "Swedes Chateaubriand" I would not pay much. If it were a proper fillet steak, however....
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#155 |
Muse
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 973
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Dead people lie...
Gene |
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If we knew what it was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it?
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#156 |
Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 202
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This morning, Landin wrote this on a Swedish woo woo forum:
Quote:
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#157 |
Master baiter - I fish!
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 967
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#158 |
Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 202
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The owner of that forum is known to be after my real name and has a record of making personal data of skeptics under pseudonym public. The skeptics that do post on his forum are subject to his editing whims and rather blunt censorship.
I have no reason to post on his forum and I question the judgment of the skeptics that do sanction his forum by being active on it. |
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#159 |
Thinker
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 202
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Here is Landin's answer to why she was right both on older and newer books:
Originally Posted by Carina Landin on Swedish woo woo forum "Soultravel"
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#160 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,363
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Always assuming your translations to be correct, I thank you again, Chateaubriand, for providing your services to the JREF Forum.
Not surprised? Me neither. Ms. Landin had a lot of time to prepare for the test. Based on the protocol, any independent viewer must regard this test as a failure, because Ms. Landin agreed to the protocol. Her mentor seemingly failed to prepare her. No paranormal powers proved. However, kudos to Ms. Landin for stepping up to the plate. Therefore: Tighter protocol, stricter execution, retest asap. Ms. Landin, if you (or some of your followers) are reading this: You had the chance to collect a lot of information during your test. Use it. You are now more familiar with the process of proving your abilities under careful scrutiny. The experience of your mentors, your belief in your ability and the collective support of your loyal followers should enable you to prepare for the retest as perfect as possible, shouldn't it? Should you fail again to demonstrate your claimed ability in the retest, with a protocol hand-tailored to your needs, will you conclude and admit publicly that you were wrong in claiming paranormal powers? |
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