2020 Presidential Election - Page 2

The Great Zaganza · 29th August 2020, 07:40 PM

The more aware Republicans realize that, post-Trump, the GOP will be lucky to win the Senate in the decade after, nevermind the House or White House.
For them, Trump is the last chance for a GOP government for the foreseeable future.
Four more years to stave off the inevitable reckoning.

I don't see many defecting.

JoeMorgue · 29th August 2020, 07:57 PM

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Facts don't matter. And that is so sad. That Trump lies and lies and lies and lies and that doesn't matter is so sad. That he is a sociopath doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a disgusting human being without morals or honor or principals doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a fraud doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a racist and bigot doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a serial adulterer doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That his supporters embrace him for these things is sad. Just so sad.

"No Comrade you did not see graphite on the roof BECAUSE IT ISN'T THERE. There's only 3.6 roentgens an hour from the feed water, no worse than a chest x-ray. THE REACTOR DIDN'T EXPLODE BECAUSE A RBMK REACTOR CAN'T EXPLODE."

Elagabalus · 29th August 2020, 08:06 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Yeah, I think that sounds about right to me. It is worth pointing out that when it came to 538, they always gave Trump a higher chance than many of the pollsters and modellers. They argued till they were blue in the face that a 99% chance for Clinton was massively overconfident and that at state level, Trump was always within the margin of error in a number of key states, and that that was highly significant as being on one side of the margin of error in one state likely meant that it could hold true for the other states if the error was systematic.

Also, while Michael Moore needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, I seem to recall that he very much warned that Trump's message resonated far more than the media class realized. I think that could well be true now. While a lot of the media are content to say anyone opposing BLM marches is racist, or that those who see the cops as justified must also be racist etc... I think Trump's message that the Democrats are on the side of riots may also be resonating further than much of the media realizes.

And, no, the facts don't matter. That is a crucial point that Clinton et. al missed in 2016, according to Nathan Robinson (and I happen to agree with him):

Link

And that's why 538 can go **** themselves.

Originally Posted by angrysoba

...I think Trump's message that the Democrats are on the side of riots may also be resonating further than much of the media realizes...

Oh wait ... 538 said that ain't happening ... yet ...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...linked-so-far/

Elagabalus · 29th August 2020, 08:09 PM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

The more aware Republicans realize that, post-Trump, the GOP will be lucky to win the Senate in the decade after, nevermind the House or White House.
For them, Trump is the last chance for a GOP government for the foreseeable future.
Four more years to stave off the inevitable reconning.

I don't see many defecting.

I don't, nor did I ever see many defecting. The Democrats have to get out and vote this time.

angrysoba · 29th August 2020, 08:20 PM

Originally Posted by Elagabalus

And that's why 538 can go **** themselves.

Eh? Why?

Originally Posted by Elagabalus

Oh wait ... 538 said that ain't happening ... yet ...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...linked-so-far/

No, but I think that it will be part of the Republican strategy to link the two. In fact, it already is.

JoeMorgue · 29th August 2020, 08:24 PM

The Democrats need to notice that the Republicans don't waste anytime wringing their hands about losing this kind of voter if they attract this kind of voter.

The Republicans nominated a man on his third wife, a man who couldn't walk past a church without bursting in flames and the Evangelical vote didn't suddenly either stay home or jump ship to the Democrats.

The Republicans nominated a man who was a Democrat as recently 2009 and had supporters wearing "I'd rather been Russian Than Democrat" as his ralleys.

Elagabalus · 29th August 2020, 08:37 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Eh? Why?

No, but I think that it will be part of the Republican strategy to link the two. In fact, it already is.

Because I can just ignore the Republican strategy (and 538) because facts don't matter. To put it another way, the people who are going to vote for Trump are going to vote for Trump. How many "swing" voters there actually are and can be influenced by Trump/Republican strategy is, I feel, actually quite low. So it's on the Dems to get out and vote.

Or to put it another way another way, The Dems need to start trolling the trolls. **** this, we go high ******

^^^THIS^^^ From JoeMorgue

grunion · 29th August 2020, 09:16 PM

The fundies and racists have a 20 year + stranglehold on SCOTUS and the Federal Judiciary in their grasp, and with it women’s bodies, health care legislation, freedom of religion, and all civil liberties. A Trump victory will see the first mass emigration in American history.

angrysoba · 29th August 2020, 10:03 PM

Originally Posted by Elagabalus

Because I can just ignore the Republican strategy (and 538) because facts don't matter. To put it another way, the people who are going to vote for Trump are going to vote for Trump. How many "swing" voters there actually are and can be influenced by Trump/Republican strategy is, I feel, actually quite low. So it's on the Dems to get out and vote.

Or to put it another way another way, The Dems need to start trolling the trolls. **** this, we go high ******

^^^THIS^^^ From JoeMorgue

Okay, well I am pointing out that facts don't matter in terms of trying to win the argument.

Of course, it doesn't mean that facts are irrelevant to how you develop strategy, so looking at election modellers such as 538 is still useful, and even if they are not, I think they get closer to the truth than most of their rivals. But as was put forward by Nathan Robinson, it probably helps to have some kind of story - a narrative to counter that of Trump's. Does Biden have one of those?

If you asked the person in the street what Biden's message is, what would they say?

"Biden stands resolutely for....something....build back better...I think....anyway, he's not Trump and that's all that matters!"

If you ask the person in the street what Trump stands for, people will have an idea. Supporters will say, "MAGA!" and opponents will say, "White supremacy!" but either way, people are pretty clear about it.

I expect Trump still dominates the media in a way that Biden does not.

When your average voter goes to the polls and sees the ballot paper and there are two names, they will know Trump. Will they know who Biden is?

Meadmaker · 29th August 2020, 10:05 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

"Biden stands resolutely for....something....build back better...I think....anyway, he's not Trump and that's all that matters!"

Works for me.

But, unfortunately, the rest of your post is correct.

angrysoba · 29th August 2020, 10:07 PM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

The Democrats need to notice that the Republicans don't waste anytime wringing their hands about losing this kind of voter if they attract this kind of voter.

The Republicans nominated a man on his third wife, a man who couldn't walk past a church without bursting in flames and the Evangelical vote didn't suddenly either stay home or jump ship to the Democrats.

The Republicans nominated a man who was a Democrat as recently 2009 and had supporters wearing "I'd rather been Russian Than Democrat" as his ralleys.

Well, there were quite a few people on these boards and elsewhere who said that Bernie Sanders was the better option because at least he has enthusiastic supporters, like Trump does.

And guess what people on these very boards, opposing Sanders, said?

They said:
1.) Sanders will alienate moderates and centrists.
2.) Sanders supporters and Sanders himself are like the Democrats' version of Trump.

Delvo · 29th August 2020, 10:28 PM

The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore.

The more pertinent problem is the one that could still be changed, hypothetically: the campaign of nothingness. Not only does Biden himself flatly tell us all that he'll do nothing, but their convention also went out of its way to avoid ever mentioning an issue or policy; it was just a bunch of "Good feelings feel good!". The Republican convention kept reminding everybody of the issues and policies they stand for. It included a bunch of falsehoods, but at least it was there. And Trump finally came a bit off from his recent culture-wars obsession that wasn't getting him anywhere in the polls and started returning to the pretense at populism that won for him last time.

One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose.

Stacyhs · 29th August 2020, 10:36 PM

Originally Posted by Delvo

The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore.

The more pertinent problem is the one that could still be changed, hypothetically: the campaign of nothingness. Not only does Biden himself flatly tell us all that he'll do nothing, but their convention also went out of its way to avoid ever mentioning an issue or policy; it was just a bunch of "Good feelings feel good!". The Republican convention kept reminding everybody of the issues and policies they stand for. It included a bunch of falsehoods, but at least it was there. And Trump finally came a bit off from his recent culture-wars obsession that wasn't getting him anywhere in the polls and started returning to the pretense at populism that won for him last time.

One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose.

LOL! Issues and policies? I think you mean FEAR MONGERING.

Firestone · 30th August 2020, 12:45 AM

The only thing giving me some hope right now is Nate Silver's (tongue in cheek) first rule of polling: "Almost all polling errors occur in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of what the conventional wisdom expects."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...inating-polls/

angrysoba · 30th August 2020, 01:13 AM

Originally Posted by Firestone

The only thing giving me some hope right now is Nate Silver's (tongue in cheek) first rule of polling: "Almost all polling errors occur in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of what the conventional wisdom expects."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...inating-polls/

I don’t know if it is that tongue-in-cheek. The problem is herding where the people creating the polls get numbers that don’t seem to conform to the conventional wisdom so they massage them to be more in line.

Firestone · 30th August 2020, 03:25 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

I don’t know if it is that tongue-in-cheek. The problem is herding where the people creating the polls get numbers that don’t seem to conform to the conventional wisdom so they massage them to be more in line.

Yes, that's exactly it.

Maybe Nate Silver will call it tongue-in-cheek-ish (he likes these kind of expressions).

uke2se · 30th August 2020, 03:45 AM

Jesus Christ, calm down everyone. You are acting as if Trump already won. He didn't, and he doesn't have to, as long as you work productively towards stopping him. Get a ******* grip and do something about it.

Safe-Keeper · 30th August 2020, 03:52 AM

I do keep reminding myself that while chances are disconcertingly high he'll win another term, there's also a chance he might lose. I suppose we are all just demoralised after the Brexit and Trump victories in 2016, and from seeing his approval rating hold steady at 40-42% despite everything.

Firestone · 30th August 2020, 04:01 AM

Originally Posted by uke2se

Jesus Christ, calm down everyone. You are acting as if Trump already won. He didn't, and he doesn't have to, as long as you work productively towards stopping him. Get a ******* grip and do something about it.

But we are calm.

Twitter pundits yesterday freaked out because the Morning Consult poll put Biden at +6 (was +8 before the conventions).

We'll have a better picture of the race in a couple of weeks (when the real or imaginary "convention bounces" have gone).
If at that point Biden still is at +6 (or better), while pundits act as if Trump is a shoo-in, then the Nate Silver rule mentioned above will reassure me.
If Biden is at +3, it's a toss-up. If Biden is even lower, time to freak out.

65 days

Craig4 · 30th August 2020, 04:59 AM

I'm a little concerned that Trump got a small post convention bump. Historically, both candidates get a post convention bump that goes away. However, this year, Biden didn't really have a bump (though he stayed at over 50 percent). Biden is still ahead and out of the margin of error in the key battleground states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

I still don't get Ohio. It's too close to call right now but it has demographics similar to Pennsylvania and Michigan and the same vulnerabilities for Trump. Ohio is actually even worse off than Michigan and Pennsylvania because of the opioid crisis and Trump is four tenths of a point ahead there.

Captain_Swoop · 30th August 2020, 05:14 AM

Trump Tweets

BREAKING: Democracy Institute shows Trump up nationally and in battlegrounds:

National Popular Vote:
Trump 48
Biden 45

Battlegrounds of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA
Trump 49
Biden 42

Florida
Trump 47
Biden 44
Minnesota
Trump 48
Biden 45
New Hampshire
Trump 47
Biden 43

Electoral Projection
Trump 319
Biden 219

Enthusiasm gap is huge.
Very supportive
Trump 82%
Biden 40%

6). According to Democracy Institute the Dems badly miscalculated on BLM:
74% prefer all lives matter
26% prefer black lives matter

Trump approval is at 52 percent
(NOTE: That number is exactly what Zogby Analytics has)

"Which candidate do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?
Trump: 59%
Biden 41%

“Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?”
Yes = 59%
No = 40%
Don’t know = 1%

Captain_Swoop · 30th August 2020, 05:18 AM

Trump Retweeted

PollWatch
@PollWatch2020
If you want to see how good or bad a pollster is just go to Real Clear Politics and check their past predictions. Don't go to 538. Their ratings are purely political and usually upside down from reality.

We're at the point now where no pollster should be using registered voters.

Trump Retweeted
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
There is no---ZERO---drop off in Trump support from 2016. There is 95% GOP support.
This means Trump will win FL by somewhere around 250,000-400,000 votes.
He is also ahead in OH, IA, WI, MI, and PA (I'm sure you didn't know that). His campaign is spending time in MN.

JoeMorgue · 30th August 2020, 05:53 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Well, there were quite a few people on these boards and elsewhere who said that Bernie Sanders was the better option because at least he has enthusiastic supporters, like Trump does.

And guess what people on these very boards, opposing Sanders, said?

They said:
1.) Sanders will alienate moderates and centrists.
2.) Sanders supporters and Sanders himself are like the Democrats' version of Trump.

Without going down (and to be 1,000 percent perfectly clear this thread should NOT go down) the Sanders death spiral again, the difference is Sanders wasn't running on a "Vote for me just to troll" platform.

The Democrats don't have enough people in their base to win an election based on nothing but reflexively just doing what will make the other side mad. The Republicans did and arguably still might.

Arguments that the Democrats should pay more attention to how Republicans win elections is not the same thing as saying they should just blindly copy their playbook.

Craig4 · 30th August 2020, 05:58 AM

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Trump Retweeted

PollWatch
@PollWatch2020
If you want to see how good or bad a pollster is just go to Real Clear Politics and check their past predictions. Don't go to 538. Their ratings are purely political and usually upside down from reality.

We're at the point now where no pollster should be using registered voters.

Trump Retweeted
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
There is no---ZERO---drop off in Trump support from 2016. There is 95% GOP support.
This means Trump will win FL by somewhere around 250,000-400,000 votes.
He is also ahead in OH, IA, WI, MI, and PA (I'm sure you didn't know that). His campaign is spending time in MN.

This is just some bull **** Zogby push poll. Of course, what's he's doing is building a counter argument for when he loses and the Democrats point out that the election results matched the polling data. He can now claim to his base that he has alternate polling data.

thaiboxerken · 30th August 2020, 06:48 AM

Another concern is that there will be no security briefs about the election. It's easy to break the rules if you blindfold the referees.

angrysoba · 30th August 2020, 07:43 AM

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Trump Tweets

BREAKING: Democracy Institute shows Trump up nationally and in battlegrounds:

National Popular Vote:
Trump 48
Biden 45

That sounds legit:

Quote:

The Democracy Institute is a think tank based in Washington, DC and London. It was founded in 2006.[1]

The Institute's founding Director, Patrick Basham, is an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute,[2] and was previously the founding director of the Social Affairs Center at the Canadian Fraser Institute.[2]

The Institute's Advisory Council includes Chris Edwards, Christopher Preble and Marian Tupy of the Cato Institute, Martin Zelder of Duke University and Ivan Eland of the Independent Institute. Nigel Ashford of the Institute for Humane Studies is also a member of the Council as is Jeannie Cameron, who was formerly employed by British American Tobacco. Jeremy Lott, formerly of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, is a Senior Fellow.[3]

A 2006 Democracy Institute book by then Senior Fellow Dr. John Luik on Why Graphic Warnings Don't Work was acknowledged as being "made possible by funding provided by Imperial Tobacco Group PLC".

Link

Skeptic Ginger · 30th August 2020, 11:00 AM

Originally Posted by Delvo

The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore.

The more pertinent problem is the one that could still be changed, hypothetically: the campaign of nothingness. Not only does Biden himself flatly tell us all that he'll do nothing, but their convention also went out of its way to avoid ever mentioning an issue or policy; it was just a bunch of "Good feelings feel good!". The Republican convention kept reminding everybody of the issues and policies they stand for. It included a bunch of falsehoods, but at least it was there. And Trump finally came a bit off from his recent culture-wars obsession that wasn't getting him anywhere in the polls and started returning to the pretense at populism that won for him last time.

One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose.

How does that not bother you?

Did Mexico pay for the wall?
Are the cities burning? And if they were (they aren't), why hasn't Trump fixed them and how is he going to fix them in his next turn?
Has he been effective dealing with COVID 19?
Do you have cheaper better healthcare?

There's a very long list of Trump's failure after failure, I suppose you've seen it. He's corrupt, making money off your tax dollars. He's given million dollar contracts to cronies.

I don't think you are looking.

Skeptic Ginger · 30th August 2020, 11:03 AM

Originally Posted by Firestone

The only thing giving me some hope right now is Nate Silver's (tongue in cheek) first rule of polling: "Almost all polling errors occur in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of what the conventional wisdom expects."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...inating-polls/

That's from 2017. It's scary to think Trump might win. You find comfort in it?

Skeptic Ginger · 30th August 2020, 11:04 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

I don’t know if it is that tongue-in-cheek. The problem is herding where the people creating the polls get numbers that don’t seem to conform to the conventional wisdom so they massage them to be more in line.

"herding"?

What does that mean when it comes to polling?

Delvo · 30th August 2020, 11:14 AM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

How does that not bother you?

How does making obviously false accusations like that not bother you?

Skeptic Ginger · 30th August 2020, 12:25 PM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

That sounds legit:

Link

Good work, I came to the same information via a different route:

Link from the CATO Institute on Patrick Basham

Basham runs Democracy Institute - This is their About Page

Looks like he's been around a long time. Extreme Libertarian probably made a ton off pushing the safety of tobacco and working against regulations. It's amazing to me how many of these guys came out of the 'deregulate tobacco' group. A lot of them went from that straight into global warming denial profiteering. It's no wonder he's a Trump sycophant given Trump has been on a destructive campaign to deregulate everything.

This kind of stuff is scary though because it's the beginning of an ernest push into the mainstream media propaganda.

538 doesn't even list the poll, as far as I could find, not even as a banned poll or a C- or whatever. I'm off to look further.

Skeptic Ginger · 30th August 2020, 12:26 PM

Originally Posted by Delvo

How does making obviously false accusations like that not bother you?

So it bothers you, just not enough?

It bothers you but you can pick and choose what to believe? Most of what Trump claimed he was going to do were lies. How is that different this time?

thaiboxerken · 30th August 2020, 12:48 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

So it bothers you, just not enough?

It bothers you but you can pick and choose what to believe? Most of what Trump claimed he was going to do were lies. How is that different this time?

Trump will do it within the next two weeks this time....

rockysmith76 · 30th August 2020, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by thaiboxerken

Trump will do it within the next two weeks this time....

unless the dems get off their ass and get out to vote and get Biden in. What will they cry about then if he wins? Hmmmmmm....

Stacyhs · 30th August 2020, 01:24 PM

Originally Posted by rockysmith76

unless the dems get off their ass and get out to vote and get Biden in. What will they cry about then if he wins? Hmmmmmm....

Um.....they did get out and vote in 2016 by 3 million more votes. It's rather difficult to win when the electoral college allows for a minority of voters in a handful of states to elect the POTUS.

Silly Green Monkey · 30th August 2020, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by Delvo

The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore.
One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose.

How is Biden a weak candidate? He's a career politician with eight years of President-adjacent experience, who doesn't have the decades of virulent anti-Clinton throw-mud-at-the-wall-until-something-sticks, and he's male so the anti-female-in-power bias won't come into force against him. He's fit enough to not have to get a doctor to lie for him, is capable of reading from a teleprompter AND put in appropriate pauses and emotion because he comprehends the speech he's giving. He knows the party platform and speaks on it when interviewed. Biden marks a return to stable, sensible government for the people, by the people, and of the people, rather than the blatant destruction of the government to replace with....what exactly? Monarchy? Theocratic dictatorship?

Stacyhs · 30th August 2020, 01:34 PM

Originally Posted by Silly Green Monkey

How is Biden a weak candidate? He's a career politician with eight years of President-adjacent experience, who doesn't have the decades of virulent anti-Clinton throw-mud-at-the-wall-until-something-sticks, and he's male so the anti-female-in-power bias won't come into force against him. He's fit enough to not have to get a doctor to lie for him, is capable of reading from a teleprompter AND put in appropriate pauses and emotion because he comprehends the speech he's giving. He knows the party platform and speaks on it when interviewed. Biden marks a return to stable, sensible government for the people, by the people, and of the people, rather than the blatant destruction of the government to replace with....what exactly? Monarchy? Theocratic dictatorship?

Agreed. I am so tired of this oft repeated claim that Biden is a 'weak' candidate. About the only thing they trot out in support is that he might have dementia because he is prone to 'gaffes'. Well, holy crap, people...look at the crap Trump spews out multiple times on a daily basis and it makes Biden's 'gaffes' look like moments of genius.

rockysmith76 · 30th August 2020, 01:36 PM

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Um.....they did get out and vote in 2016 by 3 million more votes. It's rather difficult to win when the electoral college allows for a minority of voters in a handful of states to elect the POTUS.

unless it works in their favor then its dandy.....spare me

Silly Green Monkey · 30th August 2020, 01:38 PM

Originally Posted by rockysmith76

unless it works in their favor then its dandy.....spare me

When it ever does, then you can see whether or not they think it's 'dandy'. Until then it's nothing but mudslinging.

Stacyhs · 30th August 2020, 01:41 PM

Originally Posted by rockysmith76

unless it works in their favor then its dandy.....spare me

Would you care to give me one single instance where the Democrat candidate has received the minority popular vote but won the election?

29th August 2020, 07:40 PM	#41
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 19,309	The more aware Republicans realize that, post-Trump, the GOP will be lucky to win the Senate in the decade after, nevermind the House or White House. For them, Trump is the last chance for a GOP government for the foreseeable future. Four more years to stave off the inevitable reckoning. I don't see many defecting.
	__________________ "The only true paradise is paradise lost" Marcel Proust Last edited by The Great Zaganza; 29th August 2020 at 08:11 PM.

29th August 2020, 08:06 PM	#43
Elagabalus Philosopher Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 7,051	Originally Posted by angrysoba Yeah, I think that sounds about right to me. It is worth pointing out that when it came to 538, they always gave Trump a higher chance than many of the pollsters and modellers. They argued till they were blue in the face that a 99% chance for Clinton was massively overconfident and that at state level, Trump was always within the margin of error in a number of key states, and that that was highly significant as being on one side of the margin of error in one state likely meant that it could hold true for the other states if the error was systematic. Also, while Michael Moore needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, I seem to recall that he very much warned that Trump's message resonated far more than the media class realized. I think that could well be true now. While a lot of the media are content to say anyone opposing BLM marches is racist, or that those who see the cops as justified must also be racist etc... I think Trump's message that the Democrats are on the side of riots may also be resonating further than much of the media realizes. And, no, the facts don't matter. That is a crucial point that Clinton et. al missed in 2016, according to Nathan Robinson (and I happen to agree with him): Link And that's why 538 can go ** themselves. Originally Posted by angrysoba** ...I think Trump's message that the Democrats are on the side of riots may also be resonating further than much of the media realizes... Oh wait ... 538 said that ain't happening ... yet ... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...linked-so-far/
Elagabalus Philosopher Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 7,051

29th August 2020, 08:09 PM	#44
Elagabalus Philosopher Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 7,051	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza The more aware Republicans realize that, post-Trump, the GOP will be lucky to win the Senate in the decade after, nevermind the House or White House. For them, Trump is the last chance for a GOP government for the foreseeable future. Four more years to stave off the inevitable reconning. I don't see many defecting. I don't, nor did I ever see many defecting. The Democrats have to get out and vote this time.
Elagabalus Philosopher Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 7,051

29th August 2020, 08:20 PM	#45
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 33,733	Originally Posted by Elagabalus And that's why 538 can go ** themselves. Eh? Why? Originally Posted by Elagabalus** Oh wait ... 538 said that ain't happening ... yet ... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...linked-so-far/ No, but I think that it will be part of the Republican strategy to link the two. In fact, it already is.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

29th August 2020, 08:37 PM	#47
Elagabalus Philosopher Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 7,051	Originally Posted by angrysoba Eh? Why? No, but I think that it will be part of the Republican strategy to link the two. In fact, it already is. Because I can just ignore the Republican strategy (and 538) because facts don't matter. To put it another way, the people who are going to vote for Trump are going to vote for Trump. How many "swing" voters there actually are and can be influenced by Trump/Republican strategy is, I feel, actually quite low. So it's on the Dems to get out and vote. Or to put it another way another way, The Dems need to start trolling the trolls. ** this, we go high **** ^^^THIS^^^ From JoeMorgue
Elagabalus Philosopher Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 7,051	Last edited by Elagabalus; 29th August 2020 at 08:38 PM.

29th August 2020, 07:57 PM	#42
JoeMorgue Suspended Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 42,380	Originally Posted by Stacyhs Facts don't matter. And that is so sad. That Trump lies and lies and lies and lies and that doesn't matter is so sad. That he is a sociopath doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a disgusting human being without morals or honor or principals doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a fraud doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a racist and bigot doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a serial adulterer doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That his supporters embrace him for these things is sad. Just so sad. "No Comrade you did not see graphite on the roof BECAUSE IT ISN'T THERE. There's only 3.6 roentgens an hour from the feed water, no worse than a chest x-ray. THE REACTOR DIDN'T EXPLODE BECAUSE A RBMK REACTOR CAN'T EXPLODE."

29th August 2020, 08:24 PM	#46
JoeMorgue Suspended Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 42,380	The Democrats need to notice that the Republicans don't waste anytime wringing their hands about losing this kind of voter if they attract this kind of voter. The Republicans nominated a man on his third wife, a man who couldn't walk past a church without bursting in flames and the Evangelical vote didn't suddenly either stay home or jump ship to the Democrats. The Republicans nominated a man who was a Democrat as recently 2009 and had supporters wearing "I'd rather been Russian Than Democrat" as his ralleys.

29th August 2020, 09:16 PM	#48
grunion Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 10,077	The fundies and racists have a 20 year + stranglehold on SCOTUS and the Federal Judiciary in their grasp, and with it women’s bodies, health care legislation, freedom of religion, and all civil liberties. A Trump victory will see the first mass emigration in American history.
	__________________ I wish I could show you when you are lonely or in darkness the astonishing light of your own being. ~ Hafiz of Shiraz

29th August 2020, 10:03 PM	#49
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 33,733	Originally Posted by Elagabalus Because I can just ignore the Republican strategy (and 538) because facts don't matter. To put it another way, the people who are going to vote for Trump are going to vote for Trump. How many "swing" voters there actually are and can be influenced by Trump/Republican strategy is, I feel, actually quite low. So it's on the Dems to get out and vote. Or to put it another way another way, The Dems need to start trolling the trolls. ** this, we go high **** ^^^THIS^^^ From JoeMorgue Okay, well I am pointing out that facts don't matter in terms of trying to win the argument. Of course, it doesn't mean that facts are irrelevant to how you develop strategy, so looking at election modellers such as 538 is still useful, and even if they are not, I think they get closer to the truth than most of their rivals. But as was put forward by Nathan Robinson, it probably helps to have some kind of story - a narrative to counter that of Trump's. Does Biden have one of those? If you asked the person in the street what Biden's message is, what would they say? "Biden stands resolutely for....something....build back better...I think....anyway, he's not Trump and that's all that matters!" If you ask the person in the street what Trump stands for, people will have an idea. Supporters will say, "MAGA!" and opponents will say, "White supremacy!" but either way, people are pretty clear about it. I expect Trump still dominates the media in a way that Biden does not. When your average voter goes to the polls and sees the ballot paper and there are two names, they will know Trump. Will they know who Biden is?
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

29th August 2020, 10:05 PM	#50
Meadmaker Guest Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29,033	Originally Posted by angrysoba "Biden stands resolutely for....something....build back better...I think....anyway, he's not Trump and that's all that matters!" Works for me. But, unfortunately, the rest of your post is correct.
Meadmaker Guest Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 29,033

29th August 2020, 10:07 PM	#51
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 33,733	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue The Democrats need to notice that the Republicans don't waste anytime wringing their hands about losing this kind of voter if they attract this kind of voter. The Republicans nominated a man on his third wife, a man who couldn't walk past a church without bursting in flames and the Evangelical vote didn't suddenly either stay home or jump ship to the Democrats. The Republicans nominated a man who was a Democrat as recently 2009 and had supporters wearing "I'd rather been Russian Than Democrat" as his ralleys. Well, there were quite a few people on these boards and elsewhere who said that Bernie Sanders was the better option because at least he has enthusiastic supporters, like Trump does. And guess what people on these very boards, opposing Sanders, said? They said: 1.) Sanders will alienate moderates and centrists. 2.) Sanders supporters and Sanders himself are like the Democrats' version of Trump.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

29th August 2020, 10:28 PM	#52
Delvo Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: North Tonawanda, NY Posts: 10,827	The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore. The more pertinent problem is the one that could still be changed, hypothetically: the campaign of nothingness. Not only does Biden himself flatly tell us all that he'll do nothing, but their convention also went out of its way to avoid ever mentioning an issue or policy; it was just a bunch of "Good feelings feel good!". The Republican convention kept reminding everybody of the issues and policies they stand for. It included a bunch of falsehoods, but at least it was there. And Trump finally came a bit off from his recent culture-wars obsession that wasn't getting him anywhere in the polls and started returning to the pretense at populism that won for him last time. One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose.
	Last edited by Delvo; 29th August 2020 at 10:30 PM.

29th August 2020, 10:36 PM	#53
Stacyhs Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: United States Posts: 28,626	Originally Posted by Delvo The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore. The more pertinent problem is the one that could still be changed, hypothetically: the campaign of nothingness. Not only does Biden himself flatly tell us all that he'll do nothing, but their convention also went out of its way to avoid ever mentioning an issue or policy; it was just a bunch of "Good feelings feel good!". The Republican convention kept reminding everybody of the issues and policies they stand for. It included a bunch of falsehoods, but at least it was there. And Trump finally came a bit off from his recent culture-wars obsession that wasn't getting him anywhere in the polls and started returning to the pretense at populism that won for him last time. One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose. LOL! Issues and policies? I think you mean FEAR MONGERING.

30th August 2020, 12:45 AM	#54
Firestone Proud Award Award recipient Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Belgium Posts: 3,017	The only thing giving me some hope right now is Nate Silver's (tongue in cheek) first rule of polling: "Almost all polling errors occur in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of what the conventional wisdom expects." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...inating-polls/
	__________________ The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it, with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age. -- Carl Sagan

30th August 2020, 01:13 AM	#55
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 33,733	Originally Posted by Firestone The only thing giving me some hope right now is Nate Silver's (tongue in cheek) first rule of polling: "Almost all polling errors occur in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of what the conventional wisdom expects." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...inating-polls/ I don’t know if it is that tongue-in-cheek. The problem is herding where the people creating the polls get numbers that don’t seem to conform to the conventional wisdom so they massage them to be more in line.
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

30th August 2020, 03:25 AM	#56
Firestone Proud Award Award recipient Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Belgium Posts: 3,017	Originally Posted by angrysoba I don’t know if it is that tongue-in-cheek. The problem is herding where the people creating the polls get numbers that don’t seem to conform to the conventional wisdom so they massage them to be more in line. Yes, that's exactly it. Maybe Nate Silver will call it tongue-in-cheek-ish (he likes these kind of expressions).
	__________________ The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it, with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age. -- Carl Sagan Last edited by Firestone; 30th August 2020 at 03:27 AM.

30th August 2020, 03:45 AM	#57
uke2se Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 14,367	Jesus Christ, calm down everyone. You are acting as if Trump already won. He didn't, and he doesn't have to, as long as you work productively towards stopping him. Get a ******* grip and do something about it.
	__________________ Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1

30th August 2020, 03:52 AM	#58
Safe-Keeper Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Norway Posts: 10,415	I do keep reminding myself that while chances are disconcertingly high he'll win another term, there's also a chance he might lose. I suppose we are all just demoralised after the Brexit and Trump victories in 2016, and from seeing his approval rating hold steady at 40-42% despite everything.
	__________________ "He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig

30th August 2020, 04:01 AM	#59
Firestone Proud Award Award recipient Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Belgium Posts: 3,017	Originally Posted by uke2se Jesus Christ, calm down everyone. You are acting as if Trump already won. He didn't, and he doesn't have to, as long as you work productively towards stopping him. Get a ******* grip and do something about it. But we are calm. Twitter pundits yesterday freaked out because the Morning Consult poll put Biden at +6 (was +8 before the conventions). We'll have a better picture of the race in a couple of weeks (when the real or imaginary "convention bounces" have gone). If at that point Biden still is at +6 (or better), while pundits act as if Trump is a shoo-in, then the Nate Silver rule mentioned above will reassure me. If Biden is at +3, it's a toss-up. If Biden is even lower, time to freak out. 65 days
	__________________ The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it, with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age. -- Carl Sagan

30th August 2020, 04:59 AM	#60
Craig4 Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: I live in a swamp Posts: 26,500	I'm a little concerned that Trump got a small post convention bump. Historically, both candidates get a post convention bump that goes away. However, this year, Biden didn't really have a bump (though he stayed at over 50 percent). Biden is still ahead and out of the margin of error in the key battleground states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. I still don't get Ohio. It's too close to call right now but it has demographics similar to Pennsylvania and Michigan and the same vulnerabilities for Trump. Ohio is actually even worse off than Michigan and Pennsylvania because of the opioid crisis and Trump is four tenths of a point ahead there.
	__________________ Fight like a Ukrainian. Last edited by Craig4; 30th August 2020 at 05:00 AM.

30th August 2020, 05:14 AM	#61
Captain_Swoop Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 43,373	Trump Tweets BREAKING: Democracy Institute shows Trump up nationally and in battlegrounds: National Popular Vote: Trump 48 Biden 45 Battlegrounds of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA Trump 49 Biden 42 Florida Trump 47 Biden 44 Minnesota Trump 48 Biden 45 New Hampshire Trump 47 Biden 43 Electoral Projection Trump 319 Biden 219 Enthusiasm gap is huge. Very supportive Trump 82% Biden 40% 6). According to Democracy Institute the Dems badly miscalculated on BLM: 74% prefer all lives matter 26% prefer black lives matter Trump approval is at 52 percent (NOTE: That number is exactly what Zogby Analytics has) "Which candidate do you trust to do the best job handling the economy? Trump: 59% Biden 41% “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?” Yes = 59% No = 40% Don’t know = 1%

30th August 2020, 05:18 AM	#62
Captain_Swoop Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 43,373	Trump Retweeted PollWatch @PollWatch2020 If you want to see how good or bad a pollster is just go to Real Clear Politics and check their past predictions. Don't go to 538. Their ratings are purely political and usually upside down from reality. We're at the point now where no pollster should be using registered voters. Trump Retweeted Larry Schweikart @LarrySchweikart There is no---ZERO---drop off in Trump support from 2016. There is 95% GOP support. This means Trump will win FL by somewhere around 250,000-400,000 votes. He is also ahead in OH, IA, WI, MI, and PA (I'm sure you didn't know that). His campaign is spending time in MN.

30th August 2020, 05:53 AM	#63
JoeMorgue Suspended Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 42,380	Originally Posted by angrysoba Well, there were quite a few people on these boards and elsewhere who said that Bernie Sanders was the better option because at least he has enthusiastic supporters, like Trump does. And guess what people on these very boards, opposing Sanders, said? They said: 1.) Sanders will alienate moderates and centrists. 2.) Sanders supporters and Sanders himself are like the Democrats' version of Trump. Without going down (and to be 1,000 percent perfectly clear this thread should NOT go down) the Sanders death spiral again, the difference is Sanders wasn't running on a "Vote for me just to troll" platform. The Democrats don't have enough people in their base to win an election based on nothing but reflexively just doing what will make the other side mad. The Republicans did and arguably still might. Arguments that the Democrats should pay more attention to how Republicans win elections is not the same thing as saying they should just blindly copy their playbook.

30th August 2020, 05:58 AM	#64
Craig4 Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: I live in a swamp Posts: 26,500	Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop Trump Retweeted PollWatch @PollWatch2020 If you want to see how good or bad a pollster is just go to Real Clear Politics and check their past predictions. Don't go to 538. Their ratings are purely political and usually upside down from reality. We're at the point now where no pollster should be using registered voters. Trump Retweeted Larry Schweikart @LarrySchweikart There is no---ZERO---drop off in Trump support from 2016. There is 95% GOP support. This means Trump will win FL by somewhere around 250,000-400,000 votes. He is also ahead in OH, IA, WI, MI, and PA (I'm sure you didn't know that). His campaign is spending time in MN. This is just some bull **** Zogby push poll. Of course, what's he's doing is building a counter argument for when he loses and the Democrats point out that the election results matched the polling data. He can now claim to his base that he has alternate polling data.
	__________________ Fight like a Ukrainian.

30th August 2020, 06:48 AM	#65
thaiboxerken Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 32,473	Another concern is that there will be no security briefs about the election. It's easy to break the rules if you blindfold the referees.
	__________________ 1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it.

30th August 2020, 07:43 AM	#66
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 33,733	Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop Trump Tweets BREAKING: Democracy Institute shows Trump up nationally and in battlegrounds: National Popular Vote: Trump 48 Biden 45 That sounds legit: Quote: The Democracy Institute is a think tank based in Washington, DC and London. It was founded in 2006.[1] The Institute's founding Director, Patrick Basham, is an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute,[2] and was previously the founding director of the Social Affairs Center at the Canadian Fraser Institute.[2] The Institute's Advisory Council includes Chris Edwards, Christopher Preble and Marian Tupy of the Cato Institute, Martin Zelder of Duke University and Ivan Eland of the Independent Institute. Nigel Ashford of the Institute for Humane Studies is also a member of the Council as is Jeannie Cameron, who was formerly employed by British American Tobacco. Jeremy Lott, formerly of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, is a Senior Fellow.[3] A 2006 Democracy Institute book by then Senior Fellow Dr. John Luik on Why Graphic Warnings Don't Work was acknowledged as being "made possible by funding provided by Imperial Tobacco Group PLC". Link
	__________________ Слава Україні! **** Putin!

30th August 2020, 11:00 AM	#67
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 92,992	Originally Posted by Delvo The fact that the Democrats once again insisted on the weakest candidate they could find is not the problem they should focus on now. They made their bed of gravel & broken bottles and there's nowhere else to lay down anymore. The more pertinent problem is the one that could still be changed, hypothetically: the campaign of nothingness. Not only does Biden himself flatly tell us all that he'll do nothing, but their convention also went out of its way to avoid ever mentioning an issue or policy; it was just a bunch of "Good feelings feel good!". The Republican convention kept reminding everybody of the issues and policies they stand for. It included a bunch of falsehoods, but at least it was there. And Trump finally came a bit off from his recent culture-wars obsession that wasn't getting him anywhere in the polls and started returning to the pretense at populism that won for him last time. One of these parties is trying to win and the other is trying to lose. How does that not bother you? Did Mexico pay for the wall? Are the cities burning? And if they were (they aren't), why hasn't Trump fixed them and how is he going to fix them in his next turn? Has he been effective dealing with COVID 19? Do you have cheaper better healthcare? There's a very long list of Trump's failure after failure, I suppose you've seen it. He's corrupt, making money off your tax dollars. He's given million dollar contracts to cronies. I don't think you are looking.
	Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 30th August 2020 at 12:31 PM.

30th August 2020, 11:03 AM	#68
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 92,992	Originally Posted by Firestone The only thing giving me some hope right now is Nate Silver's (tongue in cheek) first rule of polling: "Almost all polling errors occur in the OPPOSITE DIRECTION of what the conventional wisdom expects." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...inating-polls/ That's from 2017. It's scary to think Trump might win. You find comfort in it?

30th August 2020, 11:04 AM	#69
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 92,992	Originally Posted by angrysoba I don’t know if it is that tongue-in-cheek. The problem is herding where the people creating the polls get numbers that don’t seem to conform to the conventional wisdom so they massage them to be more in line. "herding"? What does that mean when it comes to polling?

30th August 2020, 11:14 AM	#70
Delvo Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: North Tonawanda, NY Posts: 10,827	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger How does that not bother you? How does making obviously false accusations like that not bother you?

30th August 2020, 12:25 PM	#71
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 92,992	Originally Posted by angrysoba That sounds legit: Link Good work, I came to the same information via a different route: Link from the CATO Institute on Patrick Basham Basham runs Democracy Institute - This is their About Page Looks like he's been around a long time. Extreme Libertarian probably made a ton off pushing the safety of tobacco and working against regulations. It's amazing to me how many of these guys came out of the 'deregulate tobacco' group. A lot of them went from that straight into global warming denial profiteering. It's no wonder he's a Trump sycophant given Trump has been on a destructive campaign to deregulate everything. This kind of stuff is scary though because it's the beginning of an ernest push into the mainstream media propaganda. 538 doesn't even list the poll, as far as I could find, not even as a banned poll or a C- or whatever. I'm off to look further.
	Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 30th August 2020 at 12:30 PM.

30th August 2020, 12:26 PM	#72
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 92,992	Originally Posted by Delvo How does making obviously false accusations like that not bother you? So it bothers you, just not enough? It bothers you but you can pick and choose what to believe? Most of what Trump claimed he was going to do were lies. How is that different this time?
	Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 30th August 2020 at 12:30 PM.

30th August 2020, 12:48 PM	#73
thaiboxerken Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 32,473	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger So it bothers you, just not enough? It bothers you but you can pick and choose what to believe? Most of what Trump claimed he was going to do were lies. How is that different this time? Trump will do it within the next two weeks this time....
	__________________ 1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it.

30th August 2020, 01:15 PM	#74
rockysmith76 Banned Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,990	Originally Posted by thaiboxerken Trump will do it within the next two weeks this time.... unless the dems get off their ass and get out to vote and get Biden in. What will they cry about then if he wins? Hmmmmmm....
rockysmith76 Banned Join Date: Jul 2019 Posts: 1,990

30th August 2020, 01:24 PM	#75
Stacyhs Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: United States Posts: 28,626	Originally Posted by rockysmith76 unless the dems get off their ass and get out to vote and get Biden in. What will they cry about then if he wins? Hmmmmmm.... Um.....they did get out and vote in 2016 by 3 million more votes. It's rather difficult to win when the electoral college allows for a minority of voters in a handful of states to elect the POTUS.