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Old 3rd December 2020, 05:35 AM   #2281
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Well yes why not? Put them up near the top of the list.

I don't know what the modelling has shown but it seems to stand to reason to me that if you vaccinate the spreaders then you reduce the prevalence of the virus much more significantly than vaccinating the vulnerable.

but I suppose the maths is based on numbers that at least I am only guessing at in terms of doses available, speed of rollout and the sizes of groups etc.

My thought was just if we spend the next 6 months vaccinating the vulnerable then by the middle of next year we are going to be no further on in terms of the impact on day to day life, the prevalence of the virus in society and progress towards 'normality'.
You have to balance what might be the best theoretical order of vaccination against what is actually practical to manage, especially with a vaccine like the Pfizer one which has very restrictive storage requirements. It sounds like the initial round of vaccinations will be for NHS staff, and possibly care home staff and patients able to go into a hospital.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 05:47 AM   #2282
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Personally I’d rather see a regional approach, lock down the highest tiers and get those sorted.

Based on what Rolfe posted I’ve read quite a bit about managing non-human epidemics and a regional/geographical approach seems to be the current wisdom. You stop movement (as we already do in the highest tier areas) and get vaccinating.

I do understand however given the limited quantities available at the moment you couldn’t use that approach but as soon as we have millions of doses we need to move to such an approach.

And I am still 100% behind making it compulsory (subject to genuine exceptions due to medical reasons).
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Old 3rd December 2020, 09:07 AM   #2283
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The international vaccine supply chain has been targeted by cyber-espionage, according to IBM.

The company says it tracked a campaign aimed at the delivery "cold chain" used to keep vaccines at the right temperature during transportation.

The attackers' identity is unclear - but IBM said the sophistication of their methods indicated a nation state.

It follows warnings from governments - including the UK's - of countries targeting aspects of vaccine research.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55165552
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Old 3rd December 2020, 09:44 AM   #2284
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An absolutely incendiary thread from one of the country's leading biostatisticians about the Liverpool testing programme

Jon Deeks tweeted
@deeksj
Mass testing in Liverpool MISSED ~50% of infections and ~30% with high viral loads. Results are in this Government document, but no actual numbers or details are given.
Absolutely URGENT that @DHSCgovuk reports full data today and HALTS IMPLEMENTATION

Missing 30% with high viral loads is NOT SAFE. PHE studies said missed <5% - so this is more than 6 times as many.
You cannot risk people with high viral loads visiting their elderly relatives.

A sensitivity of 50% means that somebody who has a negative result will have half the risk of having COVID.
PHE studies included a 58% result - but Matt Hancock denied this existed last week.
This is still a lot of risk.

PLEASE PLEASE @MattHancock @BorisJohnson @SMHopkins @didoharding @CMO_England STOP USING THESE TESTS FOR PURPOSES WHICH PUT PEOPLE AT RISK. YOUR OWN DATA SAYS IT IS HIGH RISK. MANUFACTURER SAYS DON’T DO IT, WHO SAYS DON’T DO IT, SCIENTISTS SAY DON’T DO. IT IS A MISTAKE.

(Document in link)

https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1334426403425685504

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 3rd December 2020 at 09:46 AM.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 10:44 AM   #2285
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Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP has announced that From 4am on Sat 5th Dec high-value business travellers, performing arts professionals, TV production staff, journalists and recently signed elite sportspersons will no longer need to self-isolate when returning to England from a country not in a travel corridor, allowing more travel to support the economy and jobs.

So business people, elite sportspersons, performing artists & journalists are non-carriers of the pandemic? and it's nothing to do with money?

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 3rd December 2020 at 10:48 AM.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 11:20 AM   #2286
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In the village of Redbrook, one pub is in England, the other, across the River Wye on a footbridge, is in Wales. The residents of Redbrook haven't gone thirsty so far.
But the owner of the pub in Wales might be going broke!
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Old 3rd December 2020, 01:16 PM   #2287
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Roseberry Topping, a local landmark hill on the edge of the North Yorkshire Moors has it's summit in 'Tees Valley' in tier 3 and the paths that approach it in North Yorkshire in tier 2.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 02:36 PM   #2288
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP has announced that From 4am on Sat 5th Dec high-value business travellers, performing arts professionals, TV production staff, journalists and recently signed elite sportspersons will no longer need to self-isolate when returning to England from a country not in a travel corridor, allowing more travel to support the economy and jobs.

So business people, elite sportspersons, performing artists & journalists are non-carriers of the pandemic? and it's nothing to do with money?
No, in just the same way that service engineers, truck drivers, train drivers and crew, air crew, diplomats, nuclear inspectors and uncle tom cobbley and all haven't been for the last 5 months.

I'm a Field Service Engineer in the pharma industry. Since the initial lockdown in the UK finished I have spent 3/4 of my time travelling to and from the EU, without a need to quarantine. But I am in an enhanced testing regime (tested weekly when I am in the UK), we changed to use apartments rather than hotels to allow for home cooking rather than going out to restaurants, wearing masks way more than everyone about us, and company provision of PPE. I DON'T live a normal live, but I live it in the new normal.

My biggest problems have been around arranging travel. BA, in particular , have been a pain in the arse, cancelling flights at the last moment and quite arbitrarily. Swiss Air were frightening because they flew absolutely rammed (the airflow regime on an aircraft counters aerosol issues, but not contact issues from virus on elbows from sneezing into them), EasyJet was a real surprise for me, spacing people out and the best disembarkation procedure.

There is no reason why these people can't follow the same rules and achieve the same levels of safety.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 03:57 PM   #2289
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Originally Posted by Mikemcc View Post
There is no reason why these people can't follow the same rules and achieve the same levels of safety.
Money.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 05:02 PM   #2290
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Personally I’d rather see a regional approach, lock down the highest tiers and get those sorted.

Based on what Rolfe posted I’ve read quite a bit about managing non-human epidemics and a regional/geographical approach seems to be the current wisdom. You stop movement (as we already do in the highest tier areas) and get vaccinating.

I do understand however given the limited quantities available at the moment you couldn’t use that approach but as soon as we have millions of doses we need to move to such an approach.

And I am still 100% behind making it compulsory (subject to genuine exceptions due to medical reasons).

I agree with this, but the main objective needs to be to get everyone who ought to be vaccinated done in such a way that the last person is vaccinated before the protection has decayed in any of the first group vaccinated. If that's achieved then the order you do it in is less important.

Yes it would be better to restrict movement but that just isn't happening. Even when legislation is brought in it's immediately undermined by the police saying don't worry we're not actually going to stop anyone. You could still do it geographically starting in the worst spots and I'd do that personally. It's wasteful to go somewhere, do one group, then move the circus on without doing everyone so you only have to go back again - maybe three or four times.

But I can also see there is politics and some people in high-risk groups would be squealing about why aren't they getting the vaccine when people in low risk groups in other areas are getting it. And actually I don't think the people designing this are really thinking strategically. They're in a box where they respond within expected parameters.

But really, right here we can wait, there's very little virus and people are generally being sensible. Meanwhile 50 miles away in Glasgow nobody is paying a blind bit of attention to the regulations and they have coronavirus coming out of their ears. Go and do everyone in Glasgow and the surrounding areas and you can catch us at your leisure. Now just watch them send a vaccination squad here to do groups of people piecemeal for political reasons when it's not necessary.

Actually though they're just making it unnecessarily complicated. If they get to the end of the list before the first ones on the list have waning protection, it will work, no matter what actual order they do them in.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 05:05 PM   #2291
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Making the vaccine compulsory is a bit of a hot potato, although ideally I'd do it. But it might be more prudent simply to prohibit anyone who doesn't have a valid vaccination certificate from doing all sorts of things. Starting with coming back into the country without doing two weeks supervised hotel quarantine at their own expense. I'd stop them going into any indoor public space, personally.

I did hear that secure non-transferable proof of vaccination cards (with biometric chips like passports) were being looked at, so it seems as if someone was thinking along these lines.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 05:35 PM   #2292
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I did hear that secure non-transferable proof of vaccination cards (with biometric chips like passports) were being looked at, so it seems as if someone was thinking along these lines.
I doubt our incompetent government could arrange anything like that - it would likely take them many years, even if they could agree on such a scheme and get it voted into law. And even if they did, would it be policed?

Last edited by ceptimus; 3rd December 2020 at 05:36 PM.
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Old 3rd December 2020, 05:50 PM   #2293
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Making the vaccine compulsory is a bit of a hot potato, although ideally I'd do it. But it might be more prudent simply to prohibit anyone who doesn't have a valid vaccination certificate from doing all sorts of things. Starting with coming back into the country without doing two weeks supervised hotel quarantine at their own expense. I'd stop them going into any indoor public space, personally.

I did hear that secure non-transferable proof of vaccination cards (with biometric chips like passports) were being looked at, so it seems as if someone was thinking along these lines.
I actually think that "you are not vaccinated so you can't do, x, z, d" would fall a cropper of our human rights legislation in a way compulsory vaccination wouldn't. Mind you no doubt they'll have that ECHR nonsense repealed as soon as possible.
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Old Yesterday, 01:51 AM   #2294
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
https://twitter.com/rachaelvenables/...31239863541760



Document embedded in first tweet.
Looks like already, Pfizer can only provide half of this amount for now.

In any case the correct term is 'authorised' rather than 'approved'.
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Old Yesterday, 01:55 AM   #2295
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The very elderly in care homes who are being looked after by people who have lives in the community are hugely at risk, as the death toll in that group demonstrates.
Apparently, the regulators agree with you. Now Hancock and co have the headache of how to get it to the care homes. I know, let's not bother! Problem solved. It'll just have to be people nearby the fifty hospitals first.
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Old Yesterday, 02:01 AM   #2296
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Making the vaccine compulsory is a bit of a hot potato, although ideally I'd do it. But it might be more prudent simply to prohibit anyone who doesn't have a valid vaccination certificate from doing all sorts of things. Starting with coming back into the country without doing two weeks supervised hotel quarantine at their own expense. I'd stop them going into any indoor public space, personally.

I did hear that secure non-transferable proof of vaccination cards (with biometric chips like passports) were being looked at, so it seems as if someone was thinking along these lines.
When I were a lass vaccinations were simply carried out routinely by school nurses. Of course people should have the right to refuse but aside from people with religious beliefs such as Jehovah's Witnesses I can't see that there would be any real reason to object apart from being selfish and trendy.
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Old Yesterday, 02:06 AM   #2297
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Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock have offered t have the vaccination live on air. I hear Obama has also offered to have his shot filmed.

Quote:
Health secretary Matt Hancock has said he is willing to get vaccinated for the coronavirus live on television to help convince people it is safe.

The cabinet minister has hailed the speedy approval of Covid-19 jab from Pfizer after the UK became the first country in the world to authorise it – paving the way for vaccination to begin next week.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1764949.html

Very reassuring, I am sure.
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Old Yesterday, 02:22 AM   #2298
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Boris Johnson and Matt Hancock have offered t have the vaccination live on air. I hear Obama has also offered to have his shot filmed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1764949.html

Very reassuring, I am sure.
Oh FFS stop with the childish, Luddite, anti-vax crap.
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Old Yesterday, 02:49 AM   #2299
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Allegra Stratton:

Quote:
Boris Johnson’s spokeswoman later suggested that the prime minister would also be prepared to get the jab on TV. “We all know the character of the PM – I don’t think it would be something he would rule out,” she said when asked if he would consider it.

But the No 10 spokeswoman added that Mr Johnson would not want to get the vaccine before other people in higher-risk categories.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1764949.html


No, no, of course not. Ever the altruist is our beloved PM.
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Old Yesterday, 03:00 AM   #2300
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Allegra Stratton:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1764949.html


No, no, of course not. Ever the altruist is our beloved PM.
He already had the virus - so he can afford to wait; especially if he's been tested and still has antibodies.

Unless you think it was all fake?
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Old Yesterday, 05:24 AM   #2301
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
He already had the virus - so he can afford to wait; especially if he's been tested and still has antibodies.

Unless you think it was all fake?
So did Hancock, remember?

There are a lot of rumours about Johnson, which I am sure I don't need to repeat here. With Johnson, it is hard to trust anything much about him. I can give him the benefit of a doubt as he seemed out of breath, dishevelled and suffering from brain fog for weeks later. He still appears to struggle to string a sentence together. Good job he has Carrie to help him run the country now that Dom has gone.
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Old Yesterday, 05:42 AM   #2302
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
So did Hancock, remember?

There are a lot of rumours about Johnson, which I am sure I don't need to repeat here. With Johnson, it is hard to trust anything much about him.
Shortness of breath or not, what possible reason would you have for believing he was faking it?
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Old Yesterday, 07:20 AM   #2303
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https://twitter.com/grantshapps/stat...43848333332482

Quote:
New Business Traveller exemption: From 4am on Sat 5th Dec high-value business travellersBriefcasewill no longer need to self-isolate when returning to ENGLAND from a country NOT in a travel corridor, allowing more travel to support the economy and jobs. Conditions apply.
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Old Yesterday, 07:51 AM   #2304
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Shortness of breath or not, what possible reason would you have for believing he was faking it?
Johnson is a rake and a scoundrel.

He has zero credibility with me.

He is a rule breaker, a law breaker and has no qualms in using PR stunts for - shall we say - less than frank purposes.

So was he treated for Covid19 or something else? <shrug> I don't know.
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Old Yesterday, 08:45 AM   #2305
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Johnson is a rake and a scoundrel.

He has zero credibility with me.

He is a rule breaker, a law breaker and has no qualms in using PR stunts for - shall we say - less than frank purposes.

So was he treated for Covid19 or something else? <shrug> I don't know.
Strange.
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Old Yesterday, 10:12 AM   #2306
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Seriously?

If Johnson did not have Covid you think that a gossip factory like yer average NHS hospital could keep that one secret. Let alone that the whole ICU at Tommy's would keep secret that class of misuse of ICU resources?

Let me introduce you to hospitals...
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Old Yesterday, 02:23 PM   #2307
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California goes into a hard lockdown today . It's based on a regional basis (I live in the Greater Sacramento region which includes, outside the Sacto Metro area, a good hunk of the Central Valley) where if the ICU unites in hospitals reach a high level of occupancy severe restrictions go into effect.
Sacramento County has had a pretty stringent lockdown in effect already so it will have little impact there, but some of the rural counties in the region will go into deep lockdown for the first time.
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Old Yesterday, 04:10 PM   #2308
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The thread for US coronavirus politics is thataway --->
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Old Yesterday, 04:11 PM   #2309
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The consensus of hospital insiders who understood what was going on is that not only did BoJo have covid, the severity of his illness was being played down.
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Old Yesterday, 05:12 PM   #2310
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP has announced that From 4am on Sat 5th Dec high-value business travellers, performing arts professionals, TV production staff, journalists and recently signed elite sportspersons will no longer need to self-isolate when returning to England from a country not in a travel corridor, allowing more travel to support the economy and jobs.

So business people, elite sportspersons, performing artists & journalists are non-carriers of the pandemic? and it's nothing to do with money?
I'm wondering now where Lewis Hamilton is!
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