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View Poll Results: When will the AE911 petition reach juggernaut strength of 1%?
20 years 2 0.93%
50 years 2 0.93%
Never 79 36.57%
Who cares?….it's retarded anyway..... 133 61.57%
Voters: 216. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 29th March 2012, 02:07 AM   #161
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$955 for me, too, using your link.

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Old 29th March 2012, 04:56 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Welcome back, newton3376.
Thanks Orphia

I was going to stay away.....but some of the arrogant posts I have recently read by truthers encouraged me to return and give the truthers the treatment they deserve....

They have earned it after all
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Old 29th March 2012, 07:16 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by newton3376 View Post
Thanks Orphia

I was going to stay away.....but some of the arrogant posts I have recently read by truthers Trolls encouraged me to return and give the truthers Trolls the treatment they deserve....

They have earned it after all
Fixed that for you, There are no truthers anymore, Only trolls.
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Old 29th March 2012, 08:09 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by A W Smith View Post
Fixed that for you, There are no truthers anymore, Only trolls.
Thanks for that A W Smith. My view also and clearly evident by the behaviour we see displayed. It's been a long time since we saw a truther interested in real discussion.
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Old 31st March 2012, 11:22 AM   #165
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Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
feb 14: 1664
feb 28: 1671
7 new signatures in 14 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing 1664 A&E once every 9.1 years
feb 28: 1671
mar 31: 1,678
7 signatures in 32 days, which is 1 new A&E professional convinced by every one of the already existing A&E once every 20.5 years

The exponential growth rate of 4.89% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:
Mar 2012: 4.89% (feb 28 - Mar 31)
Feb 2012: 8.37% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 12.17% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 6.97% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 6.07% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 22.38% (sep 27 - oct 25)
All the time before that, growth rate 20% and more.

2. Other Supporters:
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
feb 14: 14,374
feb 28: 14,439
65 new signatures in 16 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing 14,374 OS once every 8.5 years
feb 28: 14,439
mar 31: 14,555
116 new signatures in 32 days, which is 1 new Other Supporter convinced by every one of the already existing OS once every 10.5 years
The exponential growth rate of 9.56% is the worst value for a single month on record yet for ae911t. To compare to recent months, as far as I have data:
Mar 2012: 9.56% (feb 28 - mar 31))
Feb 2012: 13.65% (jan 29 - feb 28)
Jan 2012: 11.84% (jan 04 - jan 29)
Dec 2011: 16.47% (dec 02 - jan 04)
Nov 2011: 30.22% (oct 25 - dec 02)
Oct 2011: 34.28% (sep 27 - oct 25)

It is becoming ever more obvious that AE911T's appeal and success is in rapid decline, as measured by their ability to generate signatures both from the professional community and the general public.


3. Fundraiser "BFT Digital Distribution"
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
The end day for the BFT Digital Distribution fundraiser came and went without a single other dollar chipped in and only 18% of the target reached. They made $879.11 in 21 days = $42/day. Average contributor payed $58.60.
mar 26:
This is interesting: It had ended on March 24th, having raised only $879.11 of the target of $4,700 (18.7%), with 15 contributions ($58.60 per contribution, $41.86 per day). Now look at it a week later:
http://widget.chipin.com/widget/id/882604da58b0c54e
It is now reported as having ended on March 30th, having reached $4700.11 with 16 contributions. So apparently, someone masked the obvious failure by adding a single late contribution for the balance!

4. Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
mar 26:
Mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions ($44.32 per contribution, $34.82 per day). Started mar 03, ends apr 08. At this pace, with 8 days to go, they'll end up 61% short of their target.


Current fundraisers attract less than $50 per day in donations. This contrasts with a recent fundraiser that had generated $10,084.61 (95 donations) over a period of ca. 37 days from dec 08 (ca.) - jan 14: That was $106.15 per contribution and $272.56 per day.

It appears that AE911T's appeal and success is in rapid decline, as measured by their ability to generate donations for specific projects: Funds raised per contributer seem to have halved, and the number of contributors is down, too.
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Old 31st March 2012, 11:32 AM   #166
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Thanks for the update Oystein.
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Old 1st April 2012, 05:02 AM   #167
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To show the steady decline of new signatures to the AE911T "petition", I have new graphics:


1. Long-term development 2007 - March 2012:
1.1 Architects and engineers:



We see the exponential growth rate steadily declining from the first year of AE911 until today. The exponential growth rate tells us how many new signature there are per year and per already existing member. If growth was organic or viral, i.e. fueled by members spreading the information, this growth rate should be steady.

The linear growth rate simply tells us how many new signatures there are per day. If there is an element of organic growth, that rate would increase.
It did increase - from 2007 to 2008/2009, was then steady for 1.5 years, and since a year ago, has dropped by more than half. This should worry Gage a lot!

1.2 Other Supporters:



Even here, exponential growth rate has always steadily declines. At all times, exponential growth of these non-professionals has been much higher than for the professional A&E - another warning sign that Gage's message fails to score where it should!

Linear growth rate continued to increase into early 2011, it seems, but has dropped since. The interesting part here is that these non-professionals aren't abandoning Gage at quite the pace that the professionals do! Linear growth rate is down "only" about 40% from its peak, compared to -60% for the A&E professionals

2. Short-term development October 2011 - March 2012:


Since the 10th anniversary on 9/11, the downward trend can be seen almost on a monthly scale:




The curves for linear and exponential growth don't differ very much now. There was a growth peak in October 2011, perhaps on account of increased interest caused by the 10th anniversary, but since then, no month has come close to the average level of the previous interval (may september 2011), and the most recent numbers, for March 2012, represent an all-time low.

The numbers for Other Supporters, previously relatively more stable than the professionals, is now almost declining as steeply.

3. Conclusion:
The patient AE911Truth is dying even faster than I had anticipated.

Last edited by Oystein; 1st April 2012 at 05:03 AM.
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Old 1st April 2012, 02:46 PM   #168
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Excellent work, Oystein.
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Old 1st April 2012, 03:14 PM   #169
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Cheers Oystein.
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Old 3rd April 2012, 11:56 AM   #170
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I am currently continuing a game I played a while ago: Counting Professional Engineers.



You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Michigan here:
http://www.aelslagid.state.mn.us/roster.html
Doing a "Search by License Type or Location ", selecting "Professional Engineers" as Profession and License Type and leaving all other fields blank, I currently get 38795 P.E.s in Michigan.
Of these, 7 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.018%, or 1 out of 5542. Only one is a Civil Engineers, the other five are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.

NameEng. ProfessionLic. NoLic. Statusest. age
David G. HuebnerCivil6201036077Lapsedca. 50
James CharlesGeological6201040948Activeca. 50
James D. FlikkemaChemical6201035334Lapsedca. 60
Jeffrey HoffmanMechanical6201053202Active40s
John L. MasonElectrical6201023233Lapsed70s
Stanley A. Beattie?6201017658Active70s
Wayne Henry CosteElectrical6201029286Activeca. 60

One can't fail to notice that, in Michigan as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe amone engineers, and the more qualified a MI PE is, the less likey he is to sign that crap.

(Also, I find it interesting that the signers tend to be rather old! I estimated their ages from the years of graduation, or years of experience as given in their profiles)
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Old 3rd April 2012, 12:12 PM   #171
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You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Minnesota here:
http://www.aelslagid.state.mn.us/roster.html
It currently states that there are 12,422 P.E.s in Minnesota.
Of these, 3 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.024%, or 1 out of 4141. Only one is a Civil Engineers, the other two are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.

NameEng. ProfessionLic. NoLic. Statusest. age
Brandon JohnsonMechanicalMECexpired?
David J. HajicekMech. + Elec.11645activeca. 70
Kirk L. PapeCivil#Land Surv.40317active40s

One can't fail to notice that, in Minnesota as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.
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Old 3rd April 2012, 12:40 PM   #172
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You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Idaho here:
http://ipels.idaho.gov/rostersearch.cfm
In addition, you can download a roster of all PEs here:
http://ipels.idaho.gov/rostdown.htm
This roster currently lists 14,009 licensed P.E.s in Idaho.
Of these, 4 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.029%, or 1 out of 3502. Two of these are Civil Engineers.
One more is listed at ae911t who isn't a PE yet, only an Engineering Intern (EIT).

NameEng. ProfessionLic. NoLic. Statusest. age
David E. CasselMechanicalP-5352currentca. 50
Larry D. ElliottElectricalP-5186currentca. 60
Nathan S. LombaCivil+StructuralP-4132currentca. 60
Ryan G. Van Leuven CivilP-8689current20s

One can't fail to notice that, in Idaho as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.

The EIT is:
Charles Mencke|Mechanical|E-6403|current|ca. 30
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Old 3rd April 2012, 01:12 PM   #173
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You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Iowa here:
https://eservices.iowa.gov/licensedi...name=pubsearch
If you search for names, but leave all fields blank (except country: USA), the form currently returns the information that there are 17,809 licensed P.E.s in Iowa.
Of these, 2 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.011%, or 1 out of 8905.

NameEng. ProfessionLic. NoLic. Statusest. age
David L. WeimerElectrical14668activeca. 40
Kirk L. Pape(*)Civil+Land Surv.14073active40s

One can't fail to notice that, in Iowa as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.


(*) I listed Pape already in my previous post on Minnesota

Last edited by Oystein; 3rd April 2012 at 01:13 PM.
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Old 3rd April 2012, 01:37 PM   #174
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Stunning work Oystein. You should send this info to Gage :P
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Old 3rd April 2012, 01:48 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
4. Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"

Mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions ($44.32 per contribution, $34.82 per day). Started mar 03, ends apr 08. At this pace, with 8 days to go, they'll end up 61% short of their target.
As much as we tweak Gage for living off contributions and what not, the specific goal above is downright austere. 11 cities in Canada for $3,200 US? On a good night, I could blow that on dinner, drinks and a few hours at the local peeler bar.
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Old 3rd April 2012, 02:25 PM   #176
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You can look up all licensed Professional Engineers in the State of Illinois here:
https://www.idfpr.com/licenselookup/LicenseLookup.asp
I searched for names, 26 searches for the letters a-z as last name, deducted 2% for people who are deceased, and found thus that there are currently ca. 53,140 licensed P.E.s in Illinois.
Of these, 8 have signed AE911T's Petition, that's 0.015%, or 1 out of 6643. Only two of these are Civil Engineers, the other six are not qualified to assess the behaviour of builing structures. This despite the fact that civil and structural engineers together make up 50-60% of all PEs.
One more Mec.Eng. is listed at ae911t who isn't a PE yet, only an Engineering Intern (EIT).

NameEng. ProfessionLic. NoLic. Statusest. age
Brian L. LewisCivil062.047612Activeca. 50
Christopher HahnMechanical062.057511Active40s
Chuck MinneChemical062.024915Inactive60ish
Dennis M. FischerCivil062.029618not renewedca. 70
Fisal M. HammoudaAerospace062.033437Activeca. 70
J Neil JednoralskiAgricultural062.034759Active60s
Lee H. NiemsMechanical062.009043Inactiveca. 70 or 90
Robert A. KaderaElectrical062.046385Active50s

One can't fail to notice that, in Illinois as everywhere else, AE911T is exceedingly on the fringe among engineers.

The EIT is:
Steven P. Grage|Mechanical|061.021889|Active|ca. 50
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Old 3rd April 2012, 02:31 PM   #177
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I think that I recognize one of those Illinois names from when I was on the Lone Lantern truther mailing list.
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Old 3rd April 2012, 02:33 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by carlitos View Post
As much as we tweak Gage for living off contributions and what not, the specific goal above is downright austere. 11 cities in Canada for $3,200 US? On a good night, I could blow that on dinner, drinks and a few hours at the local peeler bar.
One other thing I plan to analyse perhaps after the next couple of fundraisers is how they lower their targets and expectations from one fundraiser to the next, as they watch the previous ones miss and fail - still keep failing!

We'll probably have to wait a few months before we see Gage's IRS form 990 for FY 2011, but I'll predict that they will already have seen a stalling, or even slight decrease, of direct contributions compared to 2010, after 2010 saw a nice increase over 2009. In 2012, Gage will probably struggle to get a decent wage out of the dying operation.

I don't see them survive deep into 2013
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Old 3rd April 2012, 05:05 PM   #179
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I started all this over in Telltale_Tom's thread:

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Today I am looking at all Professional Engineers from AE911"truth" who have a PE license from the state of Pennsylvania. To find them, I did a local search for the strings "PA" and "Penn" in the "Engineers (Degreed & Licensed – Active & Retired)" section of http://www2.ae911truth.org/signpetition.php

I found only 4 such entries.

I looked them up on the Pennsylvania online license verification service. Here are the results:

NameEng. branchLicense #Status
Harry B. BrownMechanicalPE025639Eexpired
James Robert Van LangenMechanicalPE025663Eactive
Michael T. DiMercurioMechanical?not found
Patricia Lyn SeitzArchitectural19559not found / not a PE# from PA

One can do a search for P.E.'s leaving all search form fields blank. I got 188 pages of names, each having 40 entries, so a total of 7481-7520 P.E. licenses total for the state of Pennsylvania. It is possible that this blank search did not return all results.

Of these, only 2 (0.027% at most) signed the "petition". One of the two has his license expired (since 09/2009). Both are mechanical engineers, not the engineering branch that you want to consult for questions relating to buildings.
Gotta make a couple of corrections here:

1. There are a LOT more than 7500 PE licenses from the State of Pennsylvania. I spent some time fiddling with the search tool and found (more than) 69,000! But I estimate that about 30% of these have status that shouldn't be considered (perhaps deceased, or not yet passed; unfortunately, the returns are cryptic), so 48,300 current PE-licenses in Pennsylvania is a realistic number to go by.

2. Of these, 3 have signed Gage's petition - that's 0.006% or 1 in 16,100:

NameEng. branchLicense #Status
Harry B. BrownMechanicalPE025639Eexpired
James Robert Van LangenMechanicalPE025663Eactive
Michael T. DiMercurioMechanical?not found
Patricia Lyn SeitzArchitecturalPE079261active

The great state of Pennsylvania is even less impressed with Gage's pony show
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Old 5th April 2012, 01:35 AM   #180
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I'm loving these stats!
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Old 5th April 2012, 02:32 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
I'm loving these stats!
Thanks I do, too


By the way: The total number of Professional Engineers has sometimes been stated as being in the proximity of 300,000, if I recall correctly, but my research has led me to believe it is probably closer to a million. Here's how I figured that out - and the sources of imprecision:

All States I tested so far have tools on their webpages to look up PE licenses. In some it is possible to download a full roster, or query their database such that I get all licenses returned, at least for a count. In some states, this is not possible (or I haven't been able to figure out how). Some states, such as NY, have statistics and tell you how many PEs they have. However, the full rosters are derived using different criteria from state to state: Sometimes, only active licensees are returned, sometimes they also return expired licenses, and sometimes they even return engineers who are not licensed yet, only eligible to do the required exam, and also deceased licensees. The proportion of such non-current licenses to current ones differs from state to state; in one state I found that about 2% of the full database return was deceased; in another I suspected that 30% aren't really alive and fully qualified engineers.

Generally, in most states, somewhere between perhaps 25% and 40% of the licenses I find have a non-current status. This happens for example when an engineer retires, changes career, or simply doesn't need his license any longer for whatever he does professionally. Sometimes an out-of-state engineer got a license for some project and didn't care to renew it after it expired 2 years later. So many of those non-current licenses still represent a person who is fully qualified and capable as an engineer and probably has relevant work experience. In my opinion, a status such as "expired", "inactive", "lapsed" or "retired" does not disqualify the engineer from being counted as "licensed Professional Engineer" for the purpose of counting AE911T signatures (an opinion that I have modified from an earlier, stricter stance, by the way). About 25% of Gage's 300+ PEs have such a non-current status.

Back to counting all PEs: Again, the rosters of various states are derived using different criteria to include or exclude licenses, and sometimes I don't know what these criteria are, or have difficulties assessing what differences they make. Keeping this in mind, I found that the states I looked at so far have between just over 2 and just over 4 PE licenses per 1,000 inhabitants, with a mean just over 3 per 1,000. Extrapolationg this to the USA's total population of 313 million, I estimate that there must be about 1 million PE licenses registered in the 50 states, of which perhaps 700,000 have a status of current/active/clear. Some engineers have licenses from more than one state, or more than one license within a state. This seems true for about 15% of the AE911T signatories, and so I estimate that a discount of 20% is in order to derive the number of engineers (individual persons) from the number of licenses:

I estimate that there are about 800,000 licensed Professional Engineers in the USA, of which roughly 550,000 have a current, active status.

With AE911T listing about 300 licensed PEs, they have so far managed to convince slightly less than 0.04% of the professional community. (This number is higher than the percentage for almost all states I have posted stats about so far because there is one big outlier: Richard Gage's home state of California has about 80 engineers with a CA - license; that's 26% of their signers, but California has only 12% of the US population. Percentage for USA without CA is about 0.026%; for CA I estimate roughly 0.06-0.07%)
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Old 5th April 2012, 03:50 AM   #182
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Thanks for this, Oystein, fascinating hard data! If any of the AE911T lot are trawling these forums your figures will make for very uncomfortable reading - going from a "Fringe" movement to a "Pining-For-Fringe-Status" movement.
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Old 5th April 2012, 10:30 AM   #183
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Good work Oystein.....you put forth some effort to get these stats and it is what is to be expected with such low numbers.

Gage should be confronted with this stuff (and all the other stuff too) publicly.....

He is no longer a practicing architect and tries to use his "AIA" membership to give him an appearance of authority.

His use of the AIA is bizarre on two fronts....

1. The AIA has denounced the truth movement.
2. Being a member of the AIA doesn't really mean much to those working in the field.

His use of the "numbers" on his petition is bizarre for exactly the reasons you illustrate in this thread.

Gage deserves no respect and has no authority....he should be treated with professional contempt from the professional community.
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Old 5th April 2012, 05:29 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Thanks I do, too

...
I estimate that there are about 800,000 licensed Professional Engineers in the USA, of which roughly 550,000 have a current, active status.
USA
Only a quarter of engineers have licenses or certifications. (Two-thirds of the civil and architectural engineers are licensed or certified)

I estimate there are 1 to 2 million Mechanical and Electrical Engineers alive in the USA (engineering degrees). Less than 30 percent have PE licenses. Many don't work as engineers after getting a degree. (working and not working)

USA has about 3 million with engineering degrees, about half worked as engineers.

There are nearly 1.7 to 2 million practicing engineers, all kinds. Engineers with jobs in engineering. Some don't have engineering degrees.

There are over 400,000 practicing engineers who don't have degrees in engineering. (in the 1.7 to 2 million working engineers)

2.3 to 2.5 million engineers who are employed, about a million not working as engineers.

Looks bad for Gage.
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Old 5th April 2012, 11:19 PM   #185
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Thanks again, Oystein. Must resist making derogatory remark about crazy Californians!
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Old 6th April 2012, 02:22 AM   #186
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This is fantastic stuff. Thank you.

The question I have if, will there be a time when Gage can not get any more signatories? Or at least the growth will slow so much that it will appear no one else will sign? Can we extrapolate from the current decline to when that will be?
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Old 6th April 2012, 02:30 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
(Also, I find it interesting that the signers tend to be rather old! I estimated their ages from the years of graduation, or years of experience as given in their profiles)
This was a point I noticed from my visual inspections of their list. I suspect these are people who signed when they thought 9/11 Truth was a warm fuzzy protest against the demon Bush. My guess is that, on the personal level, Gage is still able to convince older and confused people that this is some sort of humane mission conducted by "people who really care" and not just a pack of money-hungry hookers who will say anything that will get them a few more dollars. Certainly that's the way he comes across here listening to the forum members who have met with him face-to-face.

Would this kind of guy appear convincing to my grandfather? My guess is that he could. Would he be able to convince him to do anything other than give him a name? I doubt it.
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I've seen it here and in several other places that there is no Illuminati. That doesn't even make sense. There's a Wikipedia entry that talks about it. I'm not saying that everything on Wikipedia is true, but if you read it, it's just really clear how the Illuminati controls the world.

Last edited by Scott Sommers; 6th April 2012 at 02:31 AM.
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Old 6th April 2012, 03:03 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
...Would this kind of guy appear convincing to my grandfather? My guess is that he could. Would he be able to convince him to do anything other than give him a name? I doubt it.
That second point about "would they do anything" is my assessment also. The so-called "petition" is written so it is easy to agree with. And it carries no obligation to "do" anything.
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Old 6th April 2012, 03:20 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
This is fantastic stuff. Thank you.

The question I have if, will there be a time when Gage can not get any more signatories? Or at least the growth will slow so much that it will appear no one else will sign? Can we extrapolate from the current decline to when that will be?
Don't think this will trickle down to zero as long as they are active at all. I also don't know how define the threshold below which you could say "appears like no one else will sign". Perhaps we are already there?

When I first noticed this decline in even the linear growth rate, I wondered if part of the reason could be that they are already nearing their total potential - that indeed no more than a few hundred engineers all over the USA can possibly be conned and fooled by that circus show. Now, seeing that California is ahead of the rest of the country by a factor of more than two, it would seem that there still is some potential left.

I think a more important reason for the decline is the general decline in interest for 9/11. The activists retire, and after >10 years, people have simply moved on.

I think Gage will close shop due to lack of income before the trickle of signatures will come to a complete halt.
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Old 6th April 2012, 03:25 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
...I think Gage will close shop due to lack of income before the trickle of signatures will come to a complete halt.
Yes. And the last thing he will do is forward the petition....
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Old 6th April 2012, 05:27 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I also don't know how define the threshold below which you could say "appears like no one else will sign". Perhaps we are already there?
Looking at your amazing diagram, it appears there is still meaningful growth in AE9/11T. If I read it correctly, there appears to be about 4 new names a day on their list.

2. Short-term development October 2011 - March 2012:



We could fit a linear equation to the points and calculate when when it will drop below one person a day. That's the sort of thing I meant.
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I've seen it here and in several other places that there is no Illuminati. That doesn't even make sense. There's a Wikipedia entry that talks about it. I'm not saying that everything on Wikipedia is true, but if you read it, it's just really clear how the Illuminati controls the world.
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Old 6th April 2012, 06:24 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
Looking at your amazing diagram, it appears there is still meaningful growth in AE9/11T. If I read it correctly, there appears to be about 4 new names a day on their list.

2. Short-term development October 2011 - March 2012:

http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/...er_Sep2011.png

We could fit a linear equation to the points and calculate when when it will drop below one person a day. That's the sort of thing I meant.
In the past few months between 4 and 6 "Other Supporters"(*) per day, but only 1 Architect or Engineer every 2-5 days. That's really a trickle from the professional community.

For comparison: Supposing that any professional is in his profession for 40 years=14600 days. This means that, on average, once every 8 or 9 days, a signer leaves the profession for good. Perhaps that is the threshold we are looking for: If the rate at which signers are retiring professionally (which should be about the same at which new professionals join any given guild of the same size) exceeds the rate at which new signatures trickle in, then the petition can be declared dead.



(*) I think we can safely disregard the <15,000 others - these hail from the world-wide community of humans with access to the internet. That would be more than a billion and a half, right? Of that group, Gage has reached less than 0.001% (one in one hundred thousand). Many petitions to save a local pet shelter reach that level in weeks.

Last edited by Oystein; 6th April 2012 at 06:25 AM.
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Old 6th April 2012, 08:37 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
In the past few months between 4 and 6 "Other Supporters"(*) per day, but only 1 Architect or Engineer every 2-5 days. That's really a trickle from the professional community.

For comparison: Supposing that any professional is in his profession for 40 years=14600 days. This means that, on average, once every 8 or 9 days, a signer leaves the profession for good. Perhaps that is the threshold we are looking for: If the rate at which signers are retiring professionally (which should be about the same at which new professionals join any given guild of the same size) exceeds the rate at which new signatures trickle in, then the petition can be declared dead.



(*) I think we can safely disregard the <15,000 others - these hail from the world-wide community of humans with access to the internet. That would be more than a billion and a half, right? Of that group, Gage has reached less than 0.001% (one in one hundred thousand). Many petitions to save a local pet shelter reach that level in weeks.
I'm thinking about this more from the point of view of the petition as a moral force in the conspiracy community. While you and I laugh at Gage's group, it was a really good idea when he started it, and the absolute number is reasonably impressive. It is a larger number than I would have bet on when he first started - although almost all of them are mechanical and electrical engineers. And to malleable minds, it probably seems like a major statement.

But if the number doesn't change for months, it can hardly be said to be a growing force in the profession. Even Gage will have to concede that, if the number of new members is 1 a month and there are no new AEs. If he's stuck on say 1800 for what seems like forever, it will appear pretty much that that's all the AEs in the USA he can get and he better start collecting signatures in Iran.

As it is now, almost all the new AEs are moving toward retirement. I wonder how many of the those that you can't identify anymore have died. And if this is the case, there'll come a time when the number of dying members outnumbers the new signatures he can collect.
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I've seen it here and in several other places that there is no Illuminati. That doesn't even make sense. There's a Wikipedia entry that talks about it. I'm not saying that everything on Wikipedia is true, but if you read it, it's just really clear how the Illuminati controls the world.
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Old 6th April 2012, 08:41 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
As it is now, almost all the new AEs are moving toward retirement. I wonder how many of the those that you can't identify anymore have died. And if this is the case, there'll come a time when the number of dying members outnumbers the new signatures he can collect.
...or changed their minds since originally signing. Or really agree there was a Controlled Demolition, or just that a "new investigation" is in order.
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Old 6th April 2012, 08:53 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
...or changed their minds since originally signing. Or really agree there was a Controlled Demolition, or just that a "new investigation" is in order.
Or even forgotten they ever believed this - the same as all those Hollywood Democrats you never hear a peep from anymore.
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I've seen it here and in several other places that there is no Illuminati. That doesn't even make sense. There's a Wikipedia entry that talks about it. I'm not saying that everything on Wikipedia is true, but if you read it, it's just really clear how the Illuminati controls the world.
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Old 7th April 2012, 07:18 AM   #196
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Short update, since the Fundraiser for the Canada-Tour will end tomorrow:

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Update at the end of the month:

1. Architects & Engineers

feb 28: 1671
mar 31: 1,678
...
2. Other Supporters:

feb 28: 14,439
mar 31: 14,555
...
4. Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour"

Mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions ($44.32 per contribution, $34.82 per day). Started mar 03, ends apr 08. At this pace, with 8 days to go, they'll end up 61% short of their target.
...
A&E:
mar 31: 1,678
apr 07: 1,681

OS:
mar 31: 14,555
apr 07: 14,575

Fundraiser "Eleven-City Canada Tour":
mar 31: Raised $975 of the target $3,200 (30%), with 22 contributions, ends apr 08
apr 07: Raised $1.230 of the target $3,200 (38%), with 27 contributions, ends apr 08
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Old 7th April 2012, 07:32 AM   #197
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I don't mean to add to your already amazing work, but how much does this work out per new member?

That's $2205
and 23 new members
that's $95.83/new member

every new member costs 2.16 time every contribution

presuming that Gage is touring Canada because the USA is drying up as well of idiots for him to talk to, I can't see how the Canada tour can sustain him, unless he can find a new source of money.

When I was a youth, the Canadian Communist Party - Marxist-Leninist teamed up with Albania as a source of ideological fervor. Gage could team up with Iran. His attempt to suckle with NOI hasn't seemed to damage the excitement for his message among those already energized by him - although he did seem quite concerned about keeping this secret. And this may be a true source of the elusive cognitive dissonance among Truthers that we have all been so keenly looking for. It could be that there is a sizable number of Americans willing to donate to a pro-Iran lobby group headed by Dick Gage.

I just can't see any other way for him to get money if he wants to stay doing this.
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I've seen it here and in several other places that there is no Illuminati. That doesn't even make sense. There's a Wikipedia entry that talks about it. I'm not saying that everything on Wikipedia is true, but if you read it, it's just really clear how the Illuminati controls the world.

Last edited by Scott Sommers; 7th April 2012 at 07:35 AM.
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Old 7th April 2012, 07:36 AM   #198
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Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
...It could be that there is a sizable number of Americans willing to donate to a pro-Iran lobby group headed by Dick Gage.
And if he took that step even his followers who fool themselves that he is a "nice guy" to have as a friend would have to face the reality.

From a cynical purely commercial perspective it would be a desperation play to squeeze the last few dollars out of the market.

However, second thoughts, it might not be "last few" if he went for it seriously - put brain in gear before posting eco

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Old 7th April 2012, 07:42 AM   #199
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Originally Posted by ozeco41 View Post
And if he took that step even his followers who fool themselves that he is a "nice guy" to have as a friend would have to face the reality.

From a cynical purely commercial perspective it would be a desperation play to squeeze the last few dollars out of the market.

However, second thoughts, it might not be "last few" if he went for it seriously
I'm not so sure. I wrote someone whose name I forget about his dealings with NOI. She was a candidate for the Constitution Party which is a christian shariah party that believes in making the Constitution comparable with the Bible. She just blew it off like it was nothing. I think those guys who deal with him now are so stigmatized among their friends and family, they can't go back just because Gage is a bad man.
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I've seen it here and in several other places that there is no Illuminati. That doesn't even make sense. There's a Wikipedia entry that talks about it. I'm not saying that everything on Wikipedia is true, but if you read it, it's just really clear how the Illuminati controls the world.
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Old 7th April 2012, 07:53 AM   #200
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Scott, it's a fun game, relating numbers to each other, huh? Yeah, that dwindling return on investment.

I am not sure the NoI stunt hasn't damaged him. He lost a couple of key assistants, and since that fiasco, numbers have plummeted to an all-time low. The Canada tour is nothing short of pathetic. Can't wait for the stats for all stops. Would you think he drew more than 50 in Saskatoon, Moncton, Halifax or French-speaking Montreal? I'd bet against it! These people want to change world politics as we know it? Hardly. Gage is working day in day out for a living with admirable discipline. That's all. Oh, and abusing the voluneer effort of a handful disciples.


eco, I am not sure Iran is such a big problem for this political fringe. Enemy of my enemy etc.
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