|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
16th January 2018, 04:12 PM | #1 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
2018 Sea Ice Thread
The scope of this thread is like its predecessor, but dealing with both polar regions. Bear that in mind when posting here.
To date both sea ice areas (Arctic and Antarctic) are the second smaller ones on record. Only during this day of the year (16of365) in 2017 there were less sea ice in the polar regions. |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
17th January 2018, 06:15 AM | #2 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
Arctic sea ice volume by Dec 31st: 14,418 km3
More than 1,300 km3 above it value the year before, and 500 km3 above that of the end of 2012. Yet, it's lower than any other value to date and way below the typical value when the century began, some 20,000 km3. It doesn't sound that much, but we're now much closer to the year's maximum (to happen during April) than its minimum. |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
17th January 2018, 06:40 PM | #3 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 8,624
|
|
__________________
Why bother? |
|
19th January 2018, 06:00 AM | #4 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
I remind you what is linked in the OP
Quote:
|
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
21st January 2018, 05:24 PM | #5 | ||
Quester of Doglets
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Sunny South Australia
Posts: 6,799
|
!Mod Box Warning! |
||
__________________
We would be better, and braver, to engage in enquiry, rather than indulge in the idle fancy, that we already know -- Plato. |
|||
29th January 2018, 01:54 PM | #6 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Planet earth on slow boil
Posts: 8,093
|
I wonder what the changes in Decadal AMO and PDO will bring to the ice cover in the north,
Quote:
Quote:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5381096/ Yet with record low ice cover on both ends maybe the teeter totter is breaking down. I have not been reading much on the low Antartic cover....has an explanation been proposed? |
__________________
Mainstream climate science sources • http://www.skepticalscience.com/empi...al-warming.htm • https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...cting-a-future https://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...05/start-here/ Travelphotos >https://500px.com/macdoc/galleries |
|
30th January 2018, 07:50 AM | #7 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
I would safely say it's broken from recent years on.
The reason for the slight seasonal growth in previous decades is complex. One factor is the ozone hole -ozone is a greenhouse gas- so the upper atmosphere cooled so strengthening the circumpolar winds. That changed the pattern of low pressures, and those stronger and variable winds brought pieces of ice together and propelled them into higher latitudes. A lattice like pattern in ice is the consequence, where polynyas -patches of open water surrounded by ice- increased, fostering the formation of new ice. Such a sum of causes couldn't overcome the general warming pattern in the region, so the increase in ice is almost inconsequential, ten times or more weaker than the pattern of losses in the northern hemisphere. That's why they created this official Trump-like graphic which is a master piece of deception even if it's strictly true [see my debunking here, here] |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
30th January 2018, 11:39 AM | #8 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
By the way, an update
Arctic sea ice is now at its record low for a January. It's headed to a record low maximum, probably under 14 million square kilometres for the first time in modern times. Antarctic sea ice stands now as the second record low for a January, only 18,000 km2 above last year's absolute record. It's not clear what's going to happen, it depends on the weather during the next 3 or 4 weeks, but the southern sea ice, now below the 3 million square kilometres mark, may end being one of the five lowest values for the melting season. A record breaking low is not out of the picture. In two weeks it'll become clearer. |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
30th January 2018, 01:06 PM | #9 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
NSIDC's Antarctic sea ice trend for every month in the year. Buckle up!
December '17 ------ +1.3% +/- 2.1% per decade November '17 ------ +0.2% +/- 0.9% October '17 ------- +0.8% +/- 0.6% September '17 ----- +0.7% +/- 0.7% August '17 -------- + 0.6% +/- 0.5% July '17 ----------- +0.9% +/- 0.6% June '17 ---------- +1.3% +/- 0.6% May '17 ----------- +2.0% +/- 0.6% April '17 ----------- +2.9% +/- 2.6% March '17 --------- +3.3% +/- 3.8% February '17 ------ +3.0% +/- 3.8% January '17 ------- +3.5% +/- 4.2% So, there's an overall increasing trend with some probability around 12% of it being indeed a decreasing trend And certainly this month confirms a dropping increasing trend from its +5.3% +/- 4.3% on January 2015 to some +3.0% +/- 4% this January, increasing the likelihood it's already a decreasing trend in sea ice (tongue twister) Unlike the Northern Hemisphere's, this trend would have deeper consequences, as the effective increase of albedo in southern latitudes is more consequential because of the months and latitudes it takes place. Some years into the future, I think the complete demise of the Antarctic sea ice during February and March will occur before the demise of its arctic counterpart during August and September (let's say less that a quarter million square kilometres is "no ice") |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
7th February 2018, 09:36 AM | #10 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
The Antarctic sea ice extent is today just 300,000 km2 above its lowest value on record. It has been losing some 50 to 60 thousand square kilometres a day, even the last 24 hours, and the record low for every year happens not earlier than February 15th and can be as late as March 7th, so ... do the math. A little early to announce it but we're on record breaking territory.
I trust the myth of one polar region compensating the other one is going into the category of "past anecdotes and tricks" together with "the urban heat islands" and other real or imaginary elements used to make people believe it wasn't happening what indeed has been happening. |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
7th February 2018, 01:21 PM | #11 |
Now. Do it now.
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 24,804
|
|
__________________
"The Conservatives want to keep wogs out and march boldly back to the 1950s when Britain still had an Empire and blacks, women, poofs and Irish knew their place." The Don That's what we've sunk to here. |
|
7th February 2018, 02:24 PM | #12 |
Schrödinger's cat
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Malmesbury, UK
Posts: 16,140
|
I think the reference is to the common denier claim that urban heat islands are the real reason why surface temperatures appear to have risen (because the areas where thermometers are placed have become more urbanised and hence warmer). I haven't seen it much recently, but it was certainly a popular piece of denier nonsense at one time.
|
__________________
"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
|
7th February 2018, 02:47 PM | #13 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
|
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
20th February 2018, 02:13 PM | #14 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
Stay tuned. We're close to twin records: record low yearly Arctic maximum sea ice extent, and 70,000 km2 away from a record breaking low in Antarctic sea ice extent, for second year in a row. Not quite there, but almost...
One thing is sure: this quarter we are having a record breaking polar sea ice extent negative anomaly, of about 2 million square kilometres and some 3 million square kilometres less than the typical values in the early 80s. |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
20th February 2018, 03:28 PM | #15 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Oklahoma, USA
Posts: 5,147
|
|
27th February 2018, 03:52 PM | #16 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: central Illinois
Posts: 39,700
|
I can't find the story I heard on the radio about how the storm effects the warming in the artic
This is DW http://www.dw.com/en/arctic-warmer-t...nge/a-42759475 |
__________________
I suspect you are a sandwich, metaphorically speaking. -Donn And a shot rang out. Now Space is doing time... -Ben Burch You built the toilet - don't complain when people crap in it. _Kid Eager Never underestimate the power of the Random Number God. More of evolutionary history is His doing than people think. - Dinwar |
|
27th February 2018, 04:34 PM | #17 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: UK
Posts: 1,914
|
|
27th February 2018, 08:30 PM | #18 |
Gentleman of leisure
Tagger
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Flying around in the sky
Posts: 28,092
|
This is a continuation of the trend. The last six years (2012 - 2017 + 2018) have all been way below average for the years 1979 - 2006. See my link below for the graph. Much more informative than in the previous post I have just quoted.
http://web.nersc.no/WebData/arctic-r...i1_ice_ext.png For completness see also http://arctic-roos.org/observations/...tent-in-arctic |
__________________
This signature is for rent. |
|
28th February 2018, 01:56 PM | #19 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
Originally Posted by rjh01
|
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
2nd March 2018, 02:19 AM | #20 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
On February 20th the Antarctic sea ice extent reached an early annual minimum of 2.181 million square kilometres, above the 2.106 mark during last year (the absolute minimum on record) but below the 2.29 from 1997, which had been the lowest on record until a year ago.
That date, the Antarctic sea ice anomaly was -637,000 km2, what together with an Arctic sea ice anomaly of -1,480,000 km2 makes for a global sea ice anomaly of -2.117 millions square kilometres, what places us in record breaking ice anomaly for the first quarter of the year (anomalies can be 1 million km2 larger by Q3, when the Arctic sea ice reach its yearly minimum). In a few days, with the yearly Arctic maximum extent and the sea ice volume by February 28th we'll have a clearer hint about how this year's northern summer is gonna be. |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
9th August 2018, 05:52 AM | #21 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
By the end of July the Arctic sea ice volume was 870 cubic kilometres above last year's (2017 was the lowest on record). The Arctic sea ice area is trending to reach a yearly minimum between 3.8 and 4.5 million square kilometres (second to sixth record low). Tomorrow it's going to drop below the 6 million square kilometres mark while losing half a million per week. Stay tuned.
|
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
14th October 2018, 01:32 PM | #22 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
This year's Arctic sea ice minimum was the sixth lowest in 40 years of satellite record.
Meanwhile, this year's Antarctic sea ice maximum was the fourth lowest in the same period (only 1986's was clearly lower). The myth about Antarctic sea ice growing is over. By September 25th the global sea ice anomaly was -2,501,000 km2 and on October 13th, -3,189,000 km2, figures that are becoming increasingly usual in the few months around September Equinox. Now, it started the sea ice event of the year: the Antarctic sea ice melting period, with its much more significant effect on the Earth's energy budget (as that ice is located in much lower latitudes during summer than it's northern counterpart). |
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
14th October 2018, 02:32 PM | #23 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 39,057
|
Any measurements of Antarctic land ice? Much more difficult, presumably, since you can't just see it with a satellite, but that's what's going to cause sea level rise.
|
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
|
14th October 2018, 02:58 PM | #24 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: stranded at Buenos Aires, a city that, like NYC or Paris, has so little to offer...
Posts: 9,521
|
|
__________________
Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
|
19th October 2018, 10:14 AM | #25 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,208
|
There are 2 different types of satellite measurements of Antarctic land ice, altitude and gravity. Both indicate West Antarctica is loosing ice rapidly but East Antarctica isn’t quite as clear. At least on study based on the altitude data claims a slight increase. Other studies based on altitude data suggest a slight declaim. Gravity measurements from GRACE suggest a slight decline.
The complication with altitude measurements seems to come from uncertainty in how much of what is being observed is less dense snow and how much is more dense ice. Realclimate covers to issue here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...in-antarctica/ |
__________________
"Anything's possible, but only a few things actually happen" |
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|