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Old 19th October 2021, 12:53 PM   #201
lobosrul5
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
//Slight hijack//

Rednecks love flags. I don't know why. It's not JUST Trump flags. The American Flag, Sports Teams, Trump, giant ostentatious flags of them all.

I have no idea what is the dog and what is the tail in all of this, as in how it started, but Rednecks just love using flags as a display. It's weird.
Yeah, and black and white American flags except for one stripe being blue which one of my neighbors has above the New Mexico state flag. Which your not supposed to do, only the actual American flag goes above the state flag IIRC from my days as a Boy Scout. I felt like saying something to him but the confrontation just isn't worth it.

FYI he's not a redneck, he's latino. Unless latinos can be rednecks??

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Old 19th October 2021, 01:03 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Yeah, and black and white American flags except for one stripe being blue which one of my neighbors has above the New Mexico state flag. Which your not supposed to do, only the actual American flag goes above the state flag IIRC from my days as a Boy Scout. I felt like saying something to him but the confrontation just isn't worth it.

FYI he's not a redneck, he's latino. Unless latinos can be rednecks??
Everyone can be a redneck.

Okay if we're being 100% honest I just said redneck because I didn't feel like typing out "Rural, uneducated, and leans to the Right politically, even though that can manifest in multiple different (and often odd) ways" every time.
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Old 19th October 2021, 01:04 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Everyone can be a redneck.

Okay if we're being 100% honest I just said redneck because I didn't feel like typing out "Rural, uneducated, and leans to the Right politically, even though that can manifest in multiple different (and often odd) ways" every time.
Redneck is more an aesthetic than anything. One of the biggest rednecks I've ever met was a PhD. Chemical Engineer that was upper level management.

To be honest, many of the trappings of redneckery are probably out of reach for actual rural poor people. Nobody leans harder into this identity than suburban try-hards.
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Old 19th October 2021, 01:12 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Nobody leans harder into this identity than suburban try-hards.
I'm giggling.
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Old 19th October 2021, 01:14 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
To be honest, many of the trappings of redneckery are probably out of reach for actual rural poor people
Like seriously do you have any idea what pickup trucks cost nowadays? I can't afford a new pickup. At least not until the Maverick and Santa Cruz become widely available.

And no this isn't a joke it's a legit serious point. He's right there's like this weird middle-class "Poor Rural" LARPing demographic. Johnny WorkstheCoalMine probably isn't dropping several thousand dollars into modifications to turn his truck into a Coal Roller.

Which is actually a decent segway into another legit wrinkle in this topic.

A lot of times the "This to that spectrum" has to take into account what people see themselves as rather then what they literally are.

We have to account for uneducated rural poor... AND for people who aren't that but either act like or want to be or whatever.
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Old 19th October 2021, 05:58 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
//Slight hijack//

Rednecks love flags. I don't know why. It's not JUST Trump flags. The American Flag, Sports Teams, Trump, giant ostentatious flags of them all.

I have no idea what is the dog and what is the tail in all of this, as in how it started, but Rednecks just love using flags as a display. It's weird.
It's one of those things about America that bemuses those of us from other countries - the way you overuse flags. But it's not just rednecks. Remember when Obama copped it for not wearing a flag pin one time?
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Old 19th October 2021, 06:07 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by autumn1971 View Post
Some folks really, really hate trans-women. It's a single issue voter like some anti-choice idiots
I think this actually touches on another factor making the 'middle' appear to 'go away'.

Some things just can't be 'averaged out'. That is to say, no matter what one's other views might be there are some views that make one an extremist. The old chestnut about 'you can make love to women your entire life but you **** ONE goat...' applies here too.

If you have the most 'moderate' political views but the one you privilege (or even have) is that 'Jews must be expelled from the country', then you're an extremist. This can't be 'balanced' out by having whatever other views you have. There is no 'nuance' that makes up for it. You might not always be able to identify which left/right extremist you are, but that isn't the only way to be extremist. (And of course one can still be dramatically wrong even if the way one is wrong isn't politically driven.)

Someone who thinks general trans rights (or however crazy way one wants to frame it to make it sound noble) are more a long term danger to a country than literally undoing the raison d'etat for a county and core mechanic for running it, that person is an extremist.

We can all sub in a ton of different view for the first example being given primacy. The view that BLM protests and the related unrest is as large a violation or problem as the insurrection, that view is an extremist view. It really, truly doesn't matter what their other views are at that point. It goes against reality and all the stated values commonly assigned to 'the middle', or hell even the right or the left.

There are even times when 'I don't know' or 'I have a concern' is an extremist position. Let's say there's a deadly disease that has caused millions of deaths over all the earth for almost two years. The impacts have been widespread, the information is supremely supported and widely available. At that point 'not knowing if the vaccine is worth it' or 'not knowing if it's worth the possible long term side effects' is intentional ignorance. It isn't reasonable to stay uninformed at that point. It turns 'not knowing' into an extremists position.

When people can advertise these extreme positions and find feedback letting them pretend it's 'moderate' and reasonable, and even popular, it becomes difficult to maintain the illusion they're 'in the middle'.
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Old 19th October 2021, 06:40 PM   #208
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
How about the entirely unreasonable notion that while abortion is generally bad and undesirable and should be discouraged if possible, it should nevertheless be available to everybody when there is a good reason for it?
Well...to start with, why is "abortion is generally bad an undesirable" entirely reasonable? That's making a pretty extreme value judgement right off the bat.

Then "when there is a good reason for it"...um...who gets to define what a good reason is? What process does a woman need to go through to certify that she has a "good reason"? How long will take it? How much will it cost? These aren't strawman questions; these are all things that would absolutely need to be established if you were to take the "when there is a good reason" approach. Many women currently have had problems not being able to access just contraceptive and contraceptive surgery because they lack a "good reason" according to whatever doctor they have to deal with.

Why is "I don't want to go through enormous pain, possible long term bodily harm, possible death, and possible enormous expense" not a valid reason for LITERALLY ANYONE who is pregnant, thus letting us just cut right through the "good reason" crap?

On the other hand, what exactly makes "abortion should be available to anyone who wants" an extreme position? Bodily autonomy isn't usually an 'extreme' suggestion. If you happen to be sitting in a hospital when someone comes in who desperately needs a blood transfusion and you happen to be the only compatible donor around, and they'll die with you, we don't have any laws forcing you to give your blood. You can just let them die. I don't hear any big clamoring to change that.

How about "not only should abortion be allowed at all times, but anyone has insufficient medical coverage to afford hospital expenses, or income to afford a child, or has a history of genetic disorders, should be forced to get an abortion"? That certainly seems way more extreme than "abortion should be available to anyone who wants it". So why not pick that as your "extreme" position to compare to?

So what makes a position of "abortion should be available to anyone who wants it and should be as free of social stigma as possible, but we should take a lot of steps that we know from plenty of evidence the world over reduce abortions - good sex education, open access to contraceptives (including them in medical coverage plans), affordable healthcare for all, encouraging good polices for workplaces to provide childcare, familial leave, to not be able to fire pregnant employees, etc, an 'extreme' view in your opinion?
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Old 19th October 2021, 06:52 PM   #209
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
It's one of those things about America that bemuses those of us from other countries - the way you overuse flags. But it's not just rednecks. Remember when Obama copped it for not wearing a flag pin one time?
Why the ethnic bigotry? There's no such thing as "overuse" of flags. Just cultures that don't do much with flags being prejudiced against cultures that do. Are you similarly prejudiced against totem poles? Prayer wheels? Lingams? Tattoos? Election day sausage fries? Of course not. The problem isn't flags, it's America. Because ethnic bigotry and national chauvinism.
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Old 19th October 2021, 06:58 PM   #210
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Why the ethnic bigotry? There's no such thing as "overuse" of flags. Just cultures that don't do much with flags being prejudiced against cultures that do. Are you similarly prejudiced against totem poles? Prayer wheels? Lingams? Tattoos? Election day sausage fries? Of course not. The problem isn't flags, it's America. Because ethnic bigotry and national chauvinism.
Yeah, my repeating a common subject for youtube videos and internet listicles is bigotry. Sure. Because I hate America.
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Old 20th October 2021, 08:13 AM   #211
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(Left) Bernie Sanders: We want $6,000,000,000,000.
(Right) GOP Senators: We want zero dollars.
(Center) Joe Manchin: How about $1,750,000,000,000?

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/st...30117194932230
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Old 20th October 2021, 08:15 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
(Left) Bernie Sanders: We want $6,000,000,000,000.
(Right) GOP Senators: We want zero dollars.
(Center) Joe Manchin: How about $1,750,000,000,000?

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/st...30117194932230
Maybe my math is off, that doesn't seem like the median to me.
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Old 20th October 2021, 08:34 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Maybe my math is off, that doesn't seem like the median to me.
To compute the median, you'd need to have the starting bid for each of the Senators.
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Old 20th October 2021, 09:18 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Maybe my math is off, that doesn't seem like the median to me.
It can be complicated because negotiators sometimes will start with a figure that is actually much higher than they even wanted just to get the other side to come up. This situation is kinda an example of where I am a centrist in a way. Arguing whether climate change* is real or not makes no sense. Its binary. How much we should spend to combat it is something thats negotiable. Getting something is better than nothing, and taking a deal now does not mean that more can't be spent later if the dems were to pickup more seats. If the votes are only there for 1.75bil or whatever, then take it.

*I realize only some of the spending is for combating global warming, just using it as an example.
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Old 20th October 2021, 09:22 AM   #215
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
It can be complicated because negotiators sometimes will start with a figure that is actually much higher than they even wanted just to get the other side to come up. This situation is kinda an example of where I am a centrist in a way. Arguing whether climate change* is real or not makes no sense. Its binary. How much we should spend to combat it is something thats negotiable. Getting something is better than nothing, and taking a deal now does not mean that more can't be spent later if the dems were to pickup more seats. If the votes are only there for 1.75bil or whatever, then take it.

*I realize only some of the spending is for combating global warming, just using it as an example.
Sure, if that's all that they can get, it's better than nothing. I just got a chuckle out this example because Manchin's position is literally not a center one.

There's multiple ways to view pragmatism though. Taking the best deal you can get is pragmatic. It's also pragmatic to say, in very clear terms, that not good enough is not good enough. There is a cost to moderation, and that cost could easily mean a dispirited Democratic voter base and depressed turnout.

But like you say, President Manchin has called the tune, and Biden and the rest have no choice but to dance to it.
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Old 20th October 2021, 10:58 AM   #216
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Sure, if that's all that they can get, it's better than nothing. I just got a chuckle out this example because Manchin's position is literally not a center one.
You've not yet shown this to be true. His negotiating position could well be the median proposal between 49 Senators at > 3 trillion and 49 Senators at zero.

(Guessing on Sinema here, but she's probably near Manchin.)
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Old 20th October 2021, 11:04 AM   #217
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Sure, if that's all that they can get, it's better than nothing. I just got a chuckle out this example because Manchin's position is literally not a center one.

There's multiple ways to view pragmatism though. Taking the best deal you can get is pragmatic. It's also pragmatic to say, in very clear terms, that not good enough is not good enough. There is a cost to moderation, and that cost could easily mean a dispirited Democratic voter base and depressed turnout.

But like you say, President Manchin has called the tune, and Biden and the rest have no choice but to dance to it.
Will the 2022 elections go better if they get nothing at all done? <shrug> I really don't know, the American voter can be fickle.

ETA: Manchin is probably playing political games. Meaning, he knows that if he votes for this 3.5tril bill he's probably looking at not getting re-elected. Now then, ask yourselves are we better off with a 1.75 trillion dollar deal and Manchin keeping his seat, or having a republican take his seat in a few years? And you know we are talking about WV here. A state that Trump took by like 30 points, so that seat is going to be taken by a super right wing Trumpist.

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Old 20th October 2021, 12:13 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
(Left) Bernie Sanders: We want $6,000,000,000,000.
(Right) GOP Senators: We want zero dollars.
(Center) Joe Manchin: How about $1,750,000,000,000?

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/st...30117194932230
The bills poll with majority support even among Republicans, even when the 'price' tag is included and gets more popular when polled subjects are given the original 'pay for' information in the bill (raising taxes).

On that basis, the GOP and Manchin's positions are extremist.

The money needed to address the infrastructure and environmental issues is arguable, but the range of possible costs is far closer to the $6 trillion, probably couldn't be done with the $3.5 trillion but could be started, and the other numbers factually couldn't do what everyone besides some in the GOP and a couple of Dems, agree need to be done.

With the assumption that avoiding the much greater monetary costs (and cost in lives) in not improving infrastructure and not mitigating climate issues is the agreed goal (it is), then on a factual basis the GOP reps and Manchin's positions are extremist.

If we need to board up all the windows and doors to keep zombies out, the both then position that we shouldn't board up anything AND the position that we should just board up a few windows are extremist. Not in the center.
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Old 20th October 2021, 12:15 PM   #219
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Will the 2022 elections go better if they get nothing at all done? <shrug> I really don't know, the American voter can be fickle.

ETA: Manchin is probably playing political games. Meaning, he knows that if he votes for this 3.5tril bill he's probably looking at not getting re-elected. Now then, ask yourselves are we better off with a 1.75 trillion dollar deal and Manchin keeping his seat, or having a republican take his seat in a few years? And you know we are talking about WV here. A state that Trump took by like 30 points, so that seat is going to be taken by a super right wing Trumpist.
Except for how popular the bill actually is in West Virginia, and how it probably wouldn't hurt him anyway.

That could well be what he is thinking, but increasingly it appears that he's just very stupid or trying to protect his coal energy investments. Actually, it appears both.
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Old 20th October 2021, 12:18 PM   #220
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
The bills poll with majority support even among Republicans, even when the 'price' tag is included and gets more popular when polled subjects are given the original 'pay for' information in the bill (raising taxes).
What level of spending (on the soft infrastructure reconciliation bill) enjoys the most popular support in the public opinion polls you looked at?
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Old 20th October 2021, 12:22 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
What level of spending (on the soft infrastructure reconciliation bill) enjoys the most popular support in the public opinion polls you looked at?
Why?
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Old 20th October 2021, 01:13 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Except for how popular the bill actually is in West Virginia, and how it probably wouldn't hurt him anyway.

That could well be what he is thinking, but increasingly it appears that he's just very stupid or trying to protect his coal energy investments. Actually, it appears both.
Is it, do you have data to back that up??
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Old 20th October 2021, 01:33 PM   #223
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Is it, do you have data to back that up??
Quite a lot, yes.

(The last one isn't on the bill directly but is Manchin's approval, which has fallen since he started his 'objections'.)
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Old 20th October 2021, 01:34 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Why?
Tryna figure out if there is a middle ground on that issue or not, in terms of public polling.

I'd expect to see bimodality in the data; haven't seen any data yet.
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Old 20th October 2021, 01:40 PM   #225
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Tryna figure out if there is a middle ground on that issue or not, in terms of public polling.

I'd expect to see bimodality in the data; haven't seen any data yet.
You don't figure out how much something is going to cost just by polling people about how much they want to pay for it. The lowest number will always have an advantage unless the value of the investment is well understood by the general public. It isn't.

That just isn't the metric to look at to find out what the 'middle ground' is for that number.

What sources are you going to trust? I'm not doing this again for you when you've been so obstinate in the past. All the data I've seen has been Dems and independents in super-majority approval and the Republicans in around 55% approval.
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Old 20th October 2021, 01:44 PM   #226
dirtywick
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Will the 2022 elections go better if they get nothing at all done? <shrug> I really don't know, the American voter can be fickle.

ETA: Manchin is probably playing political games. Meaning, he knows that if he votes for this 3.5tril bill he's probably looking at not getting re-elected. Now then, ask yourselves are we better off with a 1.75 trillion dollar deal and Manchin keeping his seat, or having a republican take his seat in a few years? And you know we are talking about WV here. A state that Trump took by like 30 points, so that seat is going to be taken by a super right wing Trumpist.
Well you are more likely looking at a $3.5T or a &1.75T and him potentially losing his seat either way. And hes not going to court a lot of blue support by being an obstructionist trying to court votes from people that would never vote for him regardless of what he does.

And I think with the frequency of his antics, Im sure people are asking if they might want a more cooperative Dem instead
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Old 20th October 2021, 02:23 PM   #227
lobosrul5
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Originally Posted by dirtywick View Post
Well you are more likely looking at a $3.5T or a &1.75T and him potentially losing his seat either way. And he’s not going to court a lot of blue support by being an obstructionist trying to court votes from people that would never vote for him regardless of what he does.

And I think with the frequency of his antics, I’m sure people are asking if they might want a more cooperative Dem instead
Sure, but is that what we're likely to get from WV??

What is going to be better for the 2022 mid-terms (of which Manchin isn't up for re-election), a 1.75 tril spending bill or nada? Some shrewd political operator can answer that better than I can I'm sure. The dems pick up 1 senator in 2022 and Manchin is irrelevant, two and then so is Sinema.

BTW I'm having a hard ******* time of keeping track of things. This is not the infrastructure bill this is a spending reconciliation, I think??? I'm not being rhetorical like I'm serious.
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Old 20th October 2021, 03:02 PM   #228
d4m10n
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
What sources are you going to trust?
Probably not one which pretends the Wyden plan is enough to raise 3 trillion.

Quote:
I'm not doing this again for you when you've been so obstinate in the past.
Cool.
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Old 20th October 2021, 03:42 PM   #229
tyr_13
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Probably not one which pretends the Wyden plan is enough to raise 3 trillion.

Cool.
Yup, thanks for confirming my skepticism of your good faith with a preemptive handwave based on false facts.

And to bring this back to the actual subject of the thread, that's another source of the 'disappearing middle'. There are fewer and fewer people willing to be so performatively 'moderate' in order to support their own political identity or build cred with all sides or whatever other motivation that they'll go through the insane contortions to make the sides appear roughly equal in facts and credibility as time goes on. This is because the facts align more against the right on most factual issues, more against the right on social views, and the right's arguments get more to the points the 'middle' used to claim was just a straw version of the right. Even the 'performative middle' people are getting fewer returns and actually losing even their cherished appearance of reasonableness and credibility.
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Old 20th October 2021, 03:55 PM   #230
d4m10n
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Yup, thanks for confirming my skepticism of your good faith with a preemptive handwave based on false facts.
Thanks for confirming my long held suspicion that you'd rather attack the arguer than address the argument.
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Old 20th October 2021, 04:50 PM   #231
Beelzebuddy
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
What is going to be better for the 2022 mid-terms (of which Manchin isn't up for re-election), a 1.75 tril spending bill or nada?
We're currently in a labor shortage caused not by an actual lack of people looking for jobs, but by a lack of jobs worth looking for. You can only sell "nearly nothing or actually nothing" for so long before people see through it.
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Old 20th October 2021, 05:16 PM   #232
tyr_13
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Except for how popular the bill actually is in West Virginia, and how it probably wouldn't hurt him anyway.

That could well be what he is thinking, but increasingly it appears that he's just very stupid or trying to protect his coal energy investments. Actually, it appears both.
Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Yup, thanks for confirming my skepticism of your good faith with a preemptive handwave based on false facts.

And to bring this back to the actual subject of the thread, that's another source of the 'disappearing middle'. There are fewer and fewer people willing to be so performatively 'moderate' in order to support their own political identity or build cred with all sides or whatever other motivation that they'll go through the insane contortions to make the sides appear roughly equal in facts and credibility as time goes on. This is because the facts align more against the right on most factual issues, more against the right on social views, and the right's arguments get more to the points the 'middle' used to claim was just a straw version of the right. Even the 'performative middle' people are getting fewer returns and actually losing even their cherished appearance of reasonableness and credibility.
Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
We're currently in a labor shortage caused not by an actual lack of people looking for jobs, but by a lack of jobs worth looking for. You can only sell "nearly nothing or actually nothing" for so long before people see through it.
Continuing this line of thought, the facts making the people trying to be 'in the middle' look like fools doesn't encourage others to move to the middle, nor to pick up the same habit of trying to look like they are. The incentive just isn't there. The benefits are drying up.

Looking at our example that is threatening to derail the thread, Manchin's statements about what his objections actually are show him just throwing contradictory crap out there. He said it wasn't about the price, but what's in it. Then he said it was the various pay fors. Then he said it was about coal. Then he said it was about 'making our culture an entitlement culture'. Then he said it is about the price. (Actual order might be a little different, I'm not looking up the exact timeline right now.) People can see through it, and it doesn't look reasonable. (Links to that already provided so those doing the same dance in the thread can move on to their own contortions to appear to be reasonable.)

It doesn't make good political sense, and it doesn't convince even independents anymore.
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