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Old 20th October 2021, 01:14 PM   #1601
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Sajid Javid thinks that over 100 Covid deaths a day is “mercifully low” that’s over 70,000 a year!!!
Back in 2020 they said that 50,000 deaths all together would be the worst case scenario.

We are already at 1000 new hospital admissions a day.
He's also OK with infections going up to 100,000 cases a day and that "We don't believe the pressures currently being faced by the NHS are unsustainable"

Nearly 1000 deaths a week is 'mercifully low' On who's scale?
Most of them are just members of inferior classes anyway. Better they should die and decrease the surplus population.
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Old 20th October 2021, 02:29 PM   #1602
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Sajid Javid thinks that over 100 Covid deaths a day is “mercifully low” that’s over 70,000 a year!!!
Back in 2020 they said that 50,000 deaths all together would be the worst case scenario.

We are already at 1000 new hospital admissions a day.
He's also OK with infections going up to 100,000 cases a day and that "We don't believe the pressures currently being faced by the NHS are unsustainable"

Nearly 1000 deaths a week is 'mercifully low' On who's scale?
Don't forget the hospital admissions too:

You can see the impact of vaccination, in the ratio of deaths to cases or hospital admissions to cases compared to last Autumn.




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Last edited by jimbob; 20th October 2021 at 02:30 PM.
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Old 21st October 2021, 12:20 AM   #1603
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Sajid Javid thinks that over 100 Covid deaths a day is “mercifully low” that’s over 70,000 a year!!!
Back in 2020 they said that 50,000 deaths all together would be the worst case scenario.

We are already at 1000 new hospital admissions a day.
He's also OK with infections going up to 100,000 cases a day and that "We don't believe the pressures currently being faced by the NHS are unsustainable"

Nearly 1000 deaths a week is 'mercifully low' On who's scale?
As dudalb pointed out, those 1,000 people are likely of no consequence on the grounds that they're not members of the government or prominent Conservative donors.

I note that Sajid Javid is upping the rhetoric and calling for people to wear masks and get vaccinated/boosted - without actually implementing any rules to compel people to do so - so that he can blame the public for the inevitable next wave of deaths.
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Old 21st October 2021, 12:42 AM   #1604
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More so-called experts calling on the UK Government to do something about the current wave of Covid infections:

Quote:
An "unacceptable" level of Covid cases means ministers should trigger their Plan B for the pandemic in England, doctors say.

The British Medical Association accused the government of being "wilfully negligent" for not reimposing Covid rules such as mandatory face masks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58990658

The government, which knows far more than silly doctors, disagrees:

Quote:
Health Minister Edward Argar said the NHS is not under "unsustainable pressure" to justify restrictions.

He told BBC Breakfast there were about 95,000 beds in NHS hospitals, with 7,000 occupied by Covid patients and 6,000 currently empty.
Of course, if the beds aren't in the same place as the people who need them then that could be a problem. Being at close to 95% capacity is cutting it very fine IMO.

It's not like "Plan B" restrictions actually amount to that much - they're certainly not anything like a lockdown - it would just be showing intent.
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Old 21st October 2021, 12:51 AM   #1605
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
More so-called experts calling on the UK Government to do something about the current wave of Covid infections:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58990658

The government, which knows far more than silly doctors, disagrees:



Of course, if the beds aren't in the same place as the people who need them then that could be a problem. Being at close to 95% capacity is cutting it very fine IMO.

It's not like "Plan B" restrictions actually amount to that much - they're certainly not anything like a lockdown - it would just be showing intent.
It is incomprehensible that face masks would not be mandatory anywhere people have no choice but to mix.
Vaccine rollout and mandatory masks blend two uncomfortable obligations into something effective.
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Old 21st October 2021, 06:23 AM   #1606
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The government isn't even prepared to ask their own MPs to wear masks, instead leaving it to their own initiative.

Quote:
Conservative MPs should be allowed to decide for themselves whether to wear a mask in the Commons chamber, a health minister has said.

Edward Argar said his colleagues should form an "informed view" on whether government guidance to wear one in enclosed places applies.

It comes after Health Secretary Sajid Javid urged people in England to cover their faces in "really crowded" areas.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58993387

I mean if it was a real imposition, like having to wear an old-fashioned diving suit or something that was uncomfortable, inconvenient or made their job difficult to do, then I could at least understand (if not agree with) their reluctance.
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Old 21st October 2021, 06:37 AM   #1607
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The government isn't even prepared to ask their own MPs to wear masks, instead leaving it to their own initiative.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58993387

I mean if it was a real imposition, like having to wear an old-fashioned diving suit or something that was uncomfortable, inconvenient or made their job difficult to do, then I could at least understand (if not agree with) their reluctance.
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Old 21st October 2021, 02:50 PM   #1608
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Daily cases up 7,000 from last week, to 52,000. Daily.

This, Johnson tells us, is not alarming and 'within the parameters of the predictions'. So, that's OK then.
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Old 21st October 2021, 03:11 PM   #1609
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Michael Rosen Blue tweeted

@MichaelRosenYes
In my ward in April 2020, 58% of people were dying. And 42% like me surviving with damage. That's what a pandemic feels like. Are we heading there again?
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Old 21st October 2021, 03:13 PM   #1610
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Mike Harding tweeted

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If shooters were popping off 200 citizens a day would Javid call it “ mercifully low?”
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Old 22nd October 2021, 01:14 AM   #1611
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Daily cases up 7,000 from last week, to 52,000. Daily.

This, Johnson tells us, is not alarming and 'within the parameters of the predictions'. So, that's OK then.

He’s waiting until the appropriate time* to take action, just like the last two times.


*i.e. when it’s too late.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 02:15 AM   #1612
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This n'th wave in the UK seems a lot worse than the previous wave in that more people we know have caught Covid and are getting sick from it.

AFAIK all adults we interact with on a regular basis have been double-vaccinated (we're old and so are most of our friends and acquaintances ) but nevertheless a significant proportion have managed to catch Covid and are experiencing symptoms. Only a few have been hospitalised but a lot have described it as being like the worst 'flu they've ever had and some are reporting symptoms like fatigue and loss of smell/taste weeks or months later.

We do know a few families with school-age children and I cannot think of one who have not at at least one child test positive for Covid.

Meanwhile members of SAGE (the UK government's scientific advisory board) are pushing back against government advice.

Quote:
Prof Stephen Reicher, a member of the government's Sage committee on behavioural science, tells BBC Breakfast that most of the measures needed to reduce the spread of Covid "aren't restrictions at all".
Quote:
Allowing people to work from home would have a "big impact" on reducing the spread of the virus, he says.

Prof Reicher says: "If people are infected, they need to stay at home, we need to give people the support to give them the choice to stay at home to allow them to do the things we want them to do.”

It is “simply wrong” to tell people they must go into work because one of the key factors which determines the spread of the virus is "how many contacts we have – if we have more contacts, we’re going to infect more people", he says.

But he adds that making mask-wearing compulsory does have an impact on the numbers who wear then. When the government first made them mandatory, the rates of people wearing masks went up from 20% to 80%, he says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

"Plan B" will only be implemented when public opinion is clamouring for it. It will of course be insufficient and will be implemented in a half-arsed way far too late.

The UK Government will then say that the restrictions were pointless (and lift them) and will blame the public for for not preventing the spread of Covid.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 02:54 AM   #1613
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From the BBC Covid live feed:

Quote:
The prospect of how the UK should deal with Covid this winter has sparked a big debate.

We've been asking for your views on whether, amid rising cases, the government should turn to its "Plan B". This would include the reintroduction of some social distancing measures and mandatory mask-wearing in certain circumstances.

Phil Hadley says the government should not turn to Plan B for winter. He tells us that “we just have to get on with life” and “maybe school kids need not be tested anymore”.

Phil believes “we cannot keep shutting the economy down because the NHS is busy”. He says: “I’ve had enough of my personal liberties being taken away from me just to protect the NHS.”

He adds that the NHS “is supposed to be there for us, not the other way around”.
Who is Phil Hadley ?

What are his qualifications ?

Why is the BBC promoting this view ?

IMO he sounds like the sort of "gammon" that gives middle aged, middle class, white men like me a bad name.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 03:13 AM   #1614
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Billy Bragg tweeted

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Was asked why I was wearing a mask this morning while ordering breakfast. Did you see those images of the Commons, I replied, with a bare-faced govt facing the masked opposition? I don’t want anyone in here thinking I’m a Tory
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Old 22nd October 2021, 03:22 AM   #1615
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Jacob Rees-Mogg says a "convivial fraternal spirit" means the Conservatives do not need to wear masks in the House of Commons

"We on this side know each other," he says

https://bbc.in/3jHWREX
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Old 22nd October 2021, 03:43 AM   #1616
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Tory minister says face masks should not become a ‘sign of virtue’
Gillian Keegan says it is ‘not comfortable sitting for hours in a mask’ after calls from Sajid Javid for MPs to set example

Face masks should not become a “sign of virtue”, a government minister has said as she and her Conservative colleagues come under pressure to lead by example and wear them in the House of Commons.

Gillian Keegan, the minister of state for care, told Sky News masks were “less relevant” than vaccines and boosters in the race to curb surging cases of coronavirus, which on Thursday surpassed 50,000 in a single day for the first time in three months.

A row has broken out within the Tory party over wearing masks after the health secretary, Sajid Javid, called on Wednesday for MPs to set a good example by masking up to help avoid further restrictions being introduced.
No 10 appeared surprised that Javid issued the call and declined to back his advice, instead pointing to the guidance on wearing them around less familiar faces.
The Commons Leader, Jacob Rees-Mogg, then raised eyebrows when he suggested on Thursday that Tories do not need to wear face coverings in parliament because of a “convivial, fraternal spirit”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sign-of-virtue
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Old 22nd October 2021, 05:52 AM   #1617
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The Commons Leader, Jacob Rees-Mogg, then raised eyebrows when he suggested on Thursday that Tories do not need to wear face coverings in parliament because of a “convivial, fraternal spirit”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...sign-of-virtue
If scientific research into Coronaviruses has shown anything it's that the three most effective ways to kill them are injecting bleach, shoving a UV tube where the sun doesn't shine and the vigorous application of convivial, fraternal spirit.

The lockdowns, testing, tracing, masks, hygiene, vaccination, monoclonal antibodies and all that other stuff is just window dressing and a sop to the sheeple.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 08:10 AM   #1618
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Now even SAGE is proposing that "Plan B" is deployed in the England

Quote:
Scientists advising the UK government say plans for reintroducing stricter Covid measures should be undertaken now and be ready for "rapid deployment".

Advising people to work from home could have the greatest impact on stopping viral spread, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59011321

The UK government does not like or trust experts and so I'm sure they'll trust their gut instead.

IMO we'll need a Plan C for when Plan B proves to be far too little, far too badly, far too late - and probably a Plan D too.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 11:18 AM   #1619
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
More so-called experts calling on the UK Government to do something about the current wave of Covid infections:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58990658

The government, which knows far more than silly doctors, disagrees:



Of course, if the beds aren't in the same place as the people who need them then that could be a problem. Being at close to 95% capacity is cutting it very fine IMO.

It's not like "Plan B" restrictions actually amount to that much - they're certainly not anything like a lockdown - it would just be showing intent.
I think there are also calls for the Scottish and Welsh governments to do something. Health is a devolved issue.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 11:22 AM   #1620
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Now even SAGE is proposing that "Plan B" is deployed in the England



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59011321

The UK government does not like or trust experts and so I'm sure they'll trust their gut instead.

IMO we'll need a Plan C for when Plan B proves to be far too little, far too badly, far too late - and probably a Plan D too.
Not sure if it is a wicked plot by the Scottish government to wipe out the rest of the world by inviting everyone over for COP whilst letting COVID run rampant in Glasgow. Whatever you may think of the UK government's view of experts it is probably better than the Scottish government's (although to be fair the quality of the experts advising the Scottish government is considerably poorer than they have in England).
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Old 22nd October 2021, 11:33 AM   #1621
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
This n'th wave in the UK seems a lot worse than the previous wave in that more people we know have caught Covid and are getting sick from it.

AFAIK all adults we interact with on a regular basis have been double-vaccinated (we're old and so are most of our friends and acquaintances ) but nevertheless a significant proportion have managed to catch Covid and are experiencing symptoms. Only a few have been hospitalised but a lot have described it as being like the worst 'flu they've ever had and some are reporting symptoms like fatigue and loss of smell/taste weeks or months later.

We do know a few families with school-age children and I cannot think of one who have not at at least one child test positive for Covid.

Meanwhile members of SAGE (the UK government's scientific advisory board) are pushing back against government advice.





https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

"Plan B" will only be implemented when public opinion is clamouring for it. It will of course be insufficient and will be implemented in a half-arsed way far too late.

The UK Government will then say that the restrictions were pointless (and lift them) and will blame the public for for not preventing the spread of Covid.
The problem is when is the exit point from restrictions. Personally I would have not eased so quickly in Summer and would have encouraged if not enforced social distancing and mask wearing. But it is clear that with 90% of UK adult population having antibodies, this is not making a big impact on transmission. If we kept restrictions in place until 90% adults have had a booster (perhaps April 2022?) will this provide sufficient immunity to open up? There were good arguments for opening up in summer and staying open now. The message that needs to go out more strongly to the older, more vulnerable and their families is that despite vaccination keeping up precautions for your older family members is important at least until they have been booster vaccinated. The greatest failing is the message that the vulnerable still need protecting. My guess is that if they over emphasise that the vulnerable and vaccinated are still at risk it will reduce uptake of second doses in the young and boosters in the vulnerable groups and play into the hands of those who want to give out ivermectin rather than vaccines.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 11:41 AM   #1622
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"We'll do whatever we have to do to protect the public", says Boris Johnson on Sky News, unmasked in a vaccination centre.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 11:28 PM   #1623
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So-called experts are saying that the government should now implement Plan B to stop things getting drastically worse in a hurry:

Quote:
Advising people to work from home is likely to have the most impact on stopping Covid spreading this winter, scientists advising the government say.

Stricter virus restrictions should now be prepared for "rapid deployment", the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59011321

The new "Delta Plus" variant, present in the UK, may be more transmissible:

Quote:
Although regular Delta still accounts for most Covid infections in the UK, cases of "Delta Plus" or AY.4.2 have been increasing.

Latest official data suggests 6% of Covid cases are of this type.

Experts say it is unlikely to take off in a big way or escape current vaccines. But officials say there is some early evidence that it may have an increased growth rate in the UK compared to Delta.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59009293
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Old 22nd October 2021, 11:34 PM   #1624
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
The problem is when is the exit point from restrictions.
I suppose it depends on the nature of those restrictions.

I understand that lockdowns, or whatever half-arsed version of lockdown was implemented in the UK cannot be sustained indefinitely due to the social and economic costs.

OTOH the wearing of facemasks in public spaces, vaccine mandates/passports and suggesting that, where they can, people work from home doesn't have anything like the same cost and IMO a case could be made that it's actually desirable to have these in place indefinitely. More working from home = quieter roads = lower Carbon emissions.
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Old 23rd October 2021, 12:31 AM   #1625
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
"We'll do whatever we have to do to protect the public", says Boris Johnson on Sky News, unmasked in a vaccination centre.
Seriously!? This is just dumb. And who was the Tory wanker saying it is “virtue signaling” to wear a mask?
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Old 23rd October 2021, 06:39 AM   #1626
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Seriously!? This is just dumb. And who was the Tory wanker saying it is “virtue signaling” to wear a mask?
That was the Minister of State for Social Care.
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Old 23rd October 2021, 07:00 AM   #1627
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
That was the Minister of State for Social Care.
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Old 23rd October 2021, 08:23 AM   #1628
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I am on a waiting list for NHS treatment - approximately number 18,067,39,12 - to have my jaw reattached.
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Old 24th October 2021, 05:50 AM   #1629
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Rishi Sunak says that people "will make the right decision" about face masks in crowded public spaces on Marr.

The right decision is to wear them.

I can tell you that most people aren't making the right decision.

Ask them why, the answer they give is because they don't have to, even if they know it's the right thing to do.
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Old 24th October 2021, 05:50 AM   #1630
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Any sensible government looking back on the lessons of 2020 and 2021 would clearly see that plan B needs to be implemented well before it becomes a crisis.
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Old 24th October 2021, 06:28 AM   #1631
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Any sensible government looking back on the lessons of 2020 and 2021 would clearly see that plan B needs to be implemented well before it becomes a crisis.
Given that Plan B is pretty much sweet FA, we're going to need a Plan C IMO.
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Old 24th October 2021, 07:03 AM   #1632
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Given that Plan B is pretty much sweet FA, we're going to need a Plan C IMO.
Well, Plan b is mandatory masking and vaccine passports from what I can gather. It is the type of thing that makes sense if you do it early so that you can avoid having to go to more serious measures later.

But by the time they implement it, it will be too late.
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Old 25th October 2021, 02:16 AM   #1633
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The so-called experts are repeatedly calling for Plan B to be implemented immediately.

Quote:
Over the weekend, Prof Peter Openshaw, a scientist advising the government who sits on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, told the BBC that he was "very fearful" there would be another "lockdown Christmas if we don't act soon" to stem the spread of Covid.

He insisted that if people want a "wonderful family Christmas", stricter Plan B measures need to be in place now to drive transmission rates down.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

The real expert, Health Minister Sajid Javid disagrees:

Quote:
Sajid Javid claimed that a “normal Christmas” is possible this year as long as everyone “plays our part”
Are his colleagues, who are relying on fraternity doing their part ?

When everything goes wrong, as it almost inevitably will, will he simply blame the public ? Will the public accept the blame ?

IMO Christmas will be far from normal. I'm prepared to believe that the government will resist calls for Plan B to be implemented so there may not be additional restrictions, so it'll be normal in that regard. OTOH deaths will still be unacceptably high (IMO 1,000/week is not gratifyingly low) and the NHS will be under tremendous pressure.
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Old 25th October 2021, 02:18 AM   #1634
The Don
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Well, Plan b is mandatory masking and vaccine passports from what I can gather. It is the type of thing that makes sense if you do it early so that you can avoid having to go to more serious measures later.

But by the time they implement it, it will be too late.
Yes, that's about it - Plan B is hardly a major imposition. I simply do not understand the reluctance to wear masks (apart from a handful of people who cannot wear them).
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Old 26th October 2021, 12:22 AM   #1635
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A forecast from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) shows that Plan B may not be needed, that cases and deaths will peak in November, bottom out in January-March 2022 and then rise back up to current levels in the summer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59039739

A couple of things stand out for me:
  • Deaths seem to level out at 100-150 a day from May 2022 onwards for the foreseeable future - I find that scary and depressing
  • The forecast assumes ".....the vast majority of over-50s coming forward for their boosters, and a degree of cautious behaviour throughout winter when it comes to mixing and socialising." - this may not be the case

Then Mrs Don asked me about why so many of our friends who are doubly vaccinated are catching, and in some cases are being hospitalised by, Covid-19.

From the ONS:

Quote:
Two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine were estimated to be 96% and 92% effective against hospitalisation with the Delta variant, respectively. Deaths involving COVID-19 were consistently lower for people who have received two vaccinations.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ights/vaccines

This is encouraging, but smacks of "95% fat free" claims. What proportion of unvaccinated people are hospitalised ? It's also a long way short of initial vaccine effectiveness expectations.

Covid rates are about one third for the vaccinated:

Quote:
unvaccinated people were three times more likely than fully vaccinated people to test positive for COVID-19, with prevalence at 1.21% and 0.40%
Quote:
3.84% of double-vaccinated individuals who reported recent contact with a known COVID-19 case tested positive, compared to 7.23% of unvaccinated individuals
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/r...to-be-infected
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Old 26th October 2021, 10:00 AM   #1636
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The House of Commons has just updated its guidance on masks. Now mandatory for all staff, contractors, press and all other third parties while on the estate but still not MPs.
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Old 26th October 2021, 11:35 AM   #1637
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A forecast from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) shows that Plan B may not be needed, that cases and deaths will peak in November, bottom out in January-March 2022 and then rise back up to current levels in the summer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59039739

A couple of things stand out for me:
  • Deaths seem to level out at 100-150 a day from May 2022 onwards for the foreseeable future - I find that scary and depressing
  • The forecast assumes ".....the vast majority of over-50s coming forward for their boosters, and a degree of cautious behaviour throughout winter when it comes to mixing and socialising." - this may not be the case

Then Mrs Don asked me about why so many of our friends who are doubly vaccinated are catching, and in some cases are being hospitalised by, Covid-19.

From the ONS:



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ights/vaccines

This is encouraging, but smacks of "95% fat free" claims. What proportion of unvaccinated people are hospitalised ? It's also a long way short of initial vaccine effectiveness expectations.

Covid rates are about one third for the vaccinated:





https://www.gov.uk/government/news/r...to-be-infected
they may be coming in, but they are not as ill as they were pre vaccination. Now some vaccinated people are in hospital with pneumonia and need oxygen. We are not needing to ventilate large numbers which happened previously. A ninety percent drop in risk of death does not mean no one dies, and it does mean that those that might have died previously are now just ill in hospital.

I have been fairly persistent in trying to make clear that vaccinations do not stop infections. primarily they reduce the consequences of becoming infected.

I do think the message needs to be made clearer that reducing transmission remains dependant on social distancing and masking and vaccination cannot be relied on alone as a barrier to infection. That message needs to go out to the vulnerable and family and carers of the vulnerable. I think that in moving away from compulsory masking, there should still have been a strong message to continue with voluntary distancing and masking. This is a message that the Scottish government has failed to deliver.
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Old 26th October 2021, 01:17 PM   #1638
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263 Covid deaths today in the UK and we are busy talking about **** on the beaches.
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Old 26th October 2021, 02:52 PM   #1639
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
263 Covid deaths today in the UK and we are busy talking about **** on the beaches.
Metaphor and reality.

Marina Hyde on the ****show, piece submitted before the daily figures were announced:
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...tal-conference
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Old 26th October 2021, 05:26 PM   #1640
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I do think the message needs to be made clearer that reducing transmission remains dependant on social distancing and masking and vaccination cannot be relied on alone as a barrier to infection. That message needs to go out to the vulnerable and family and carers of the vulnerable. I think that in moving away from compulsory masking, there should still have been a strong message to continue with voluntary distancing and masking. This is a message that the Scottish government has failed to deliver.
I don't know about the Scottish government's view on masking (although Professor Sridhar suggests that people in Scotland do seem to be masking in greater numbers than those in England), but the Conservative Party's "messaging" on masking, as stated by Jacob Rees-Mogg, appears to be disastrously bad.
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