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Old 22nd February 2021, 03:55 AM   #361
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
And?

*mic drop*
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Old 22nd February 2021, 04:01 AM   #362
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
*mic drop*
Clumsy. Now, pick it up and tell us why you think those R values mean that Covid-19 is killing the same numbers of people as flu.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 04:07 AM   #363
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Mod WarningIf you want to discuss the science regarding Covid please go to the correct thread in the Science section, if you wish to discuss the conspiracy theories regarding Covid there are threads in the Conspiracy Theory section.
Responding to this mod box in thread will be off topic Posted By:Darat
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Old 22nd February 2021, 04:28 AM   #364
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Fact remains that the R0-value has been around 1 to 1.5 in Germany for all the time since the first "lockdown" (the numbers in the slide are "official" from the Robert-Koch-Institute, see link at the bottom).
Yes, lockdown has reduced the R0 for both Covid-19 and flu, but because R0 is so much higher for Covid 19 (and also because it hasn't always been stringent enough and/or properly enforced) lockdown hasn't always been sufficient to get R0 down below 1. It looks like it will take a combination of lockdowns and vaccines to do that.

Still not seeing your point.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 05:56 AM   #365
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Yes, lockdown has reduced the R0 for both Covid-19 and flu, but because R0 is so much higher for Covid 19 (and also because it hasn't always been stringent enough and/or properly enforced) lockdown hasn't always been sufficient to get R0 down below 1. It looks like it will take a combination of lockdowns and vaccines to do that.

Still not seeing your point.
As I understand it, behaviour wouldn't have an impact on R0 on the grounds that this is the measure of how many people would be infected by a single person. It may change for a disease as a whole as variants which are more or less virulent emerge. For Covid-19 R0 is around 3

R without the 0 is the measure of the current rate of infection, anything over 1.0 is exponential spread. In the UK at the moment it's just under 1.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 06:10 AM   #366
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Yes, I got my Rs mixed up. Thanks for the correction.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 07:25 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The last time I went to a live performance was to a ballet on March 11th last year, like you I knew it was a risk but that it might also be the last opportunity for quite a while. I know it was almost sold out because I bought one of the few remaining tickets for my niece a few days before, but there were large numbers of empty seats. So yes, people in the UK were also voluntarily starting to take precautions a couple of weeks before the country went into lockdown.

My last visit (before the summer, when effective elimination of the virus allowed me to see another two films) was to the cinema on 12th March. I was a bit blase because the story we were being told was that at that time there was very little virus in Scotland, but I became quite spooked that evening and decided to lock myself down from the next day.

We actually had the auditorium to ourselves. When I arrived at the cinema it seemed deserted and I wondered if it was even open, but there were a couple of staff members who made welcoming gestures. The tables and chairs usually laid out for people to sit on while waiting or to eat the fast food they'd bought weren't there, and I suspect that was a move to reduce the amount of sanitising necessary. I stood there waiting for my friend, feeling as if I was a bit-player at the start of a disaster movie.

However, my friend arrived half an hour late. The reason? Caught in heavy traffic trying to get across Glasgow to the cinema, because she lives very near Ibrox football ground, where there was a very big match on, and the roads were jammed with people heading for the match. (That was one of the things that should never have gone ahead, people flew into Scotland from places with active virus circulation.)

We had a meal at a restaurant close to the cinema and although that wasn't quite as busy as usual there were a number of people there. Then back to the cinema which was still doing a good impression of the Mary Celeste. As I said, we were the only two people in the auditorium.

I never figured out whether the deserted cinema was simply due to the football match stealing the audience, or whether people had already started to avoid public gatherings. On the way home I decided basically that that was that and I wouldn't be going anywhere for a while.

It was so nice to be able to go back in the summer when the virus was almost gone, and knowing that the cinema was a big air-space and not busy it didn't seem like a risk. But we took no steps at all to prevent re-introduction and I haven't been anywhere since August.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 08:37 AM   #368
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Shops, hairdressers, gyms and outdoor hospitality will reopen on 12 April in England if strict conditions are met, under plans being set out by the PM.

Up to six people from separate households could be able to meet in beer gardens from that date.

The new four-step plan to ease lockdown could see all legal limits on social contact lifted by 21 June.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 09:02 AM   #369
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Here's the full plan - https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ockdown-lifted
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Old 22nd February 2021, 09:22 AM   #370
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This is not going to go well. I'm encouraged by the data on vaccine effectiveness, speaking as someone who had the AZ vaccine which is showing 94% effectiveness at preventing hospitalisation, but there are going to be a hell of a lot more dead people before we get out of this, at this rate.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 12:05 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
What, not the one in Southwater?
No, Thurlow in Suffolk
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Old 22nd February 2021, 12:24 PM   #372
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Regardless of what "I understand" (hint: you are wrong about everything) it is none of your business to decide what "I understand". BTW, it is the same symptoms and the same death toll.
The symptoms are different. And the death toll is far worse.

Even if you're talking about Germany.

excess-mortality-raw-death-count (4).jpg

excess-mortality-raw-death-count (3).jpg

excess-mortality-raw-death-count (2).jpg

excess-mortality-raw-death-count (1).jpg
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Old 22nd February 2021, 12:50 PM   #373
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
No, Thurlow in Suffolk

Thank you.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 04:14 PM   #374
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SAGE Minutes just published

• 3rd Wave likely if restrictions lifted too quickly

• Schools opening will increase R rate 10-50%

• It’s clear therefore that 8th March too soon to open all schools.


Source: https://assets.publishing.service.go...79_Minutes.pdf
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Old 22nd February 2021, 05:12 PM   #375
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Looks just like a normal flu year to me
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Old 22nd February 2021, 05:38 PM   #376
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
SAGE Minutes just published

• 3rd Wave likely if restrictions lifted too quickly

• Schools opening will increase R rate 10-50%

• It’s clear therefore that 8th March too soon to open all schools.


Source: https://assets.publishing.service.go...79_Minutes.pdf
All well and good, but I note they don’t say opening too early will decrease the N*rate

*N rate is number of good headlines generated by announcements that ignores expert advice.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 03:24 AM   #377
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Can anyone explain the reason the government keeps referring to "a roadmap" instead of just calling it a map?
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Old 23rd February 2021, 03:27 AM   #378
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Or a plan.

As much as I hate the restrictions, they're absolutely necessary, when enough people have been vaccinated, ease them off and lets hope that'll be the end of it.

But people are still dying,
People are still being infected.

We need to be vigilant.

Even vaccinated people can sometimes catch and suffer from the virus.

Anyway, remember the Covid fiasco come the 2024 election and punish the Tories.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 03:54 AM   #379
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Doesn't "roadmap" imply a destination, in this usage at least?
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Old 23rd February 2021, 04:29 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Thank you.
NP Yours is still safe to visit (well, "Safe from running into Matt Hancock" anyway!)
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Old 23rd February 2021, 04:30 AM   #381
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
Can anyone explain the reason the government keeps referring to "a roadmap" instead of just calling it a map?
It's cargo cult terminology from technology industries
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Old 23rd February 2021, 04:32 AM   #382
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Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi View Post
Doesn't "roadmap" imply a destination, in this usage at least?
I don't see why, as opposed to any other kind of map? It isn't something I'd previously thought about but TBH if you ask me the difference between a road map & a map I'd say a restricted level of detail.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 05:59 AM   #383
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Interesting BBC article about the lifting of Covid restrictions, specifically why it would be rash to lift them too quickly.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153618

The things that interested me were that lifting restrictions too quickly may promote the spread of immune strains of the virus:

Quote:
In the future, when the population has a lot of immunity, mutations that can evade some of the immune response will be in a stronger position to spread.
There are still, sadly, a lot more deaths still to come:

Quote:
Modelling carried out for the government by Imperial College London has looked at what would happen if there was a quick unlocking.

It suggested if restrictions were lifted by the end of April, there could be a surge in deaths in the coming months.

And by next summer another 80,000 Covid fatalities could be seen
That would bring the UK death toll to around 200,000 - around 10 times the number being put around last year as an "acceptable" number.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 08:15 AM   #384
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
NP Yours is still safe to visit (well, "Safe from running into Matt Hancock" anyway!)

I moved away from there in 2006, but it was my "local" for 18 years before that.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 09:25 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi View Post
Doesn't "roadmap" imply a destination, in this usage at least?

Isn’t the destination the state of the world as it was before the pandemic?
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Old 23rd February 2021, 09:35 AM   #386
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
Isn’t the destination the state of the world as it was before the pandemic?
Don't say that, we don't want Trump back.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 11:24 AM   #387
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Fact remains that the R0-value has been around 1 to 1.5 in Germany for all the time since the first "lockdown" (the numbers in the slide are "official" from the Robert-Koch-Institute, see link at the bottom).
Not sure why you lie so transparently.
Not sure, which link and which slide you are talking about, but here is detailed data on new infections and R-value (not R0! Learn the difference! Makes you look as if you have not yet been schooled on the absolute basics of epidemiology!):
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...owcasting.html
Klick the first link there, gives you a protected Excel spreadsheet. You can unprotect it and convert to numbers.
Between March 21 and July 07, for 109 days after the lockdown, the R-value averaged 0.92, the median 0.88, and was above 1.0 on only 17 out of those 109 days.

It then averaged 1.1 for another 84 days (until September ), values between min 0.85 and max 1.5, median 1.105. Which may have an explanation in eased lockdown measures.

And then, in October, without lockdown, and coinciding with the onset of the cooler half of the year, it went up markedly: Until October 30 (31 days), average 1.32, median 1.33, min 1.07, max 1.55.

Then the country reacted. November (Oct. 31 to Nov 30, 31 days) had an average of 0.99, median 0.99, min 0.84, max 1.16.

December: Strict lockdown. Mean 1.02, median 1.05, min 0.79, max 1.31

Since then (Jan, through Feb 19 in my download, 50 days), we had mean 0.94, median 0.93, min 0.78, max 1.21. Despite winter weather, the typical high seasons for flu-like diseases, incident rates came down.

Almost as if the lockdowns actually work!

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Even the spike in June has a clear explanation: It was an apparent break-out at the meat-processing factory Tönnies ...
Yes, indeed, when numbers are generally very low because lockdown worked well, a single event can spoil an otherwise great curve. Several hundred workers there equaled about the total in the entire rest of the country then

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
that later turned out to be quite suspicious (retested workers were negative).
In which case we could remove the spike from the data set, improving the mean R-value to a value even farther below 1. Right?
But I see you assert without argument, so we best dismiss without argument. Who would trust a person anyway that misrepresented data so egregiously in the rest of the post?
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Old 23rd February 2021, 12:21 PM   #388
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Who would trust a person anyway that misrepresented data so egregiously in the rest of the post?

You just babbled alot about my data actually being right.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 12:55 PM   #389
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If you had ever worked in science like I did and you haven't, Oystein, you would know that we speak on the save side of an argument. Values under one are on my side of the argument, and making claims on the two digit side beyond the point is failing to understand the point.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 02:43 PM   #390
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In other words. 0.78 to 1.55 is the same hallmark as 1 to 1.5, for the sake of the argument. My professors would have kicked you out of the class for such a failure of grasping the point.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 02:48 PM   #391
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
In other words. 0.78 to 1.55 is the same hallmark as 1 to 1.5, for the sake of the argument. My professors would have kicked you out of the class for such a failure of grasping the point.
I still don’t know the point you’re trying to make. Could you state it plainly?
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Old 23rd February 2021, 02:52 PM   #392
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Point being no exponential growth, neither before the "lockdown" nor after it.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 04:25 PM   #393
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Isn’t R at 1.5 exponential growth?
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Old 23rd February 2021, 04:34 PM   #394
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Point being no exponential growth, neither before the "lockdown" nor after it.
Which, if it were true, would prove what?
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Old 23rd February 2021, 04:46 PM   #395
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Which, if it were true, would prove what?

No "pandemic".
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Old 23rd February 2021, 11:45 PM   #396
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
Isn’t R at 1.5 exponential growth?
Anything over 1.0 is AIUI
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Old 24th February 2021, 03:20 AM   #397
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
A firm is being investigated by the UK medical regulator after it was awarded a £30m contract during the pandemic.

Alex Bourne - who used to run a pub near Matt Hancock's old constituency home in West Suffolk - made vials for Covid testing through his firm Hinpack, which had no history of medical goods.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has confirmed it is now investigating the company.

The MHRA said it took "all reports of non-compliance very seriously".

Mr Bourne had offered his services to the government via a personal WhatsApp message to the health secretary, saying they had known each other for years.

Lawyers for Mr Bourne told the Guardian the test tubes that Hinpack manufactures are "by no means complicated and are well within our client's existing skillset".

They also said the MHRA had previously approved and inspected Hinpack's products and working practices, and allegations being reported against them were "untrue".

Asked about it at a Downing Street press conference in December, Mr Hancock said: "I had absolutely nothing to do with that contract."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56145492
So the Tories give lucrative contracts to their chums? <fx faints>

Do bears **** in the woods?
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Old 24th February 2021, 03:23 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Regardless of what "I understand" (hint: you are wrong about everything) it is none of your business to decide what "I understand". BTW, it is the same symptoms and the same death toll.
Stop talking rubbish! Covid19 attacks blood vessels. It causes 'glass lung' syndrome.
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Old 24th February 2021, 03:27 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by Filippo Lippi View Post
Doesn't "roadmap" imply a destination, in this usage at least?
Perhaps it alludes to Barnard Castle.


I'll get my coat.
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Old 24th February 2021, 03:30 AM   #400
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This makes me really cross. The greedy swines at AstraZeneca desperate to get the contract, misled the EU into believing it could supply the levels of vaccines it wanted:

Quote:
AstraZeneca has told the European Union it expects to deliver less than half the Covid-19 vaccines it was contracted to supply in the second quarter, an EU official told Reuters on Tuesday.

Contacted by Reuters, AstraZeneca did not deny what the official said, but a statement late in the day said the company was striving to increase productivity to deliver the promised 180m doses.

The expected shortfall, which has not previously been reported, follows a big reduction in supplies in the first quarter and could hit the EU’s ability to meet its target of vaccinating 70% of adults by summer.

The EU official, who is directly involved in talks with the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker, said the company had told the bloc during internal meetings that it “would deliver less than 90m doses in the second quarter”.

AstraZeneca’s contract with the EU, which was leaked last week, showed the company had committed to delivering 180m doses to the 27-nation bloc in the second quarter.
GUARDIAN
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