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Old 13th February 2021, 01:54 PM   #241
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Wow, that is quite an obscure reference. But I'm glad to know that he had a reason for the post and it wasn't just one of those "nobody cares" posts from people who care enough to post.
Obscure? it was one of the biggest 'New Romantic' hits of the 80s.
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Old 13th February 2021, 01:56 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Obscure!? It was a culturally defining moment - it was when I knew the public must never be allowed to decide on anything - Shaddap You Face number 1, Vienna number 2!!!

I again fail to get it. My first virtual visit to Vienna (I have been there in reality once but only for a couple of hours on a road trip to Budapest):

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

I see that the livestream video (which went on for at least five hours) has been "deleted by the uploader" for whatever reason.
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Old 13th February 2021, 02:03 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Wishing you a speedy recovery & pleased to hear you'll be protected going forward.

Fine now. Just treated myself to a slap-up evening meal from the local restaurant which is doing a takeaway menu.
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Old 13th February 2021, 02:17 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Obscure? it was one of the biggest 'New Romantic' hits of the 80s.

On your island maybe. I knew of the existence of the band as some "Wave" thing of the 80s, but wouldn't have been able to tell you the name of a single song before today. Having listened to it, I think it's mediocre btw.
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Old 13th February 2021, 02:41 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
On your island maybe. I knew of the existence of the band as some "Wave" thing of the 80s, but wouldn't have been able to tell you the name of a single song before today. Having listened to it, I think it's mediocre btw.
It was a top 10 or top 20 hit in many European countries.
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Old 13th February 2021, 03:03 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
It was a top 10 or top 20 hit in many European countries.

Yeah, it hit top 14 in Germany around the time when I got into school. Although this is very much my kind of music, I (now) still think it's mediocre and I haven't missed anything. Sounds like produced by someone who spent an afternoon at Conny Plank's studio.
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Old 13th February 2021, 03:17 PM   #247
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It was literally produced by Conny Plank as you can read in the WikiPedia article. I didn't know this, just connected some dots.
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Old 13th February 2021, 06:14 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Obscure!? It was a culturally defining moment - it was when I knew the public must never be allowed to decide on anything - Shaddap You Face number 1, Vienna number 2!!!
Hey! Whassa madda you?
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Old 14th February 2021, 04:04 AM   #249
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Newspaper headlines today, Back in the pub garden by easter and Tory backbenchers are demanding this is the final lockdown.
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Old 14th February 2021, 05:24 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Newspaper headlines today, Back in the pub garden by easter and Tory backbenchers are demanding this is the final lockdown.
But Raab has come back and rejected the idea of setting a date:

Covid: Dominic Raab rejects CRG calls for lockdown easing date

Quote:
Mr Raab told the BBC's Andrew Marr: "We share all of the ambition and the desire to get out of this lockdown. We want to do it responsibly and safely and therefore it's got to be based on the evidence," adding, "You can't get ahead of the evidence of the impact of the vaccine on the transmission."
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Old 14th February 2021, 06:46 AM   #251
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I'm hearing that the BBC are disinviting experts who want to put the case for zero covid and the programmes are going ahead with no mention of elimination even as a possibility with everyone nodding along to "we'll have to live with it" and "we'll have to accept a certain number of deaths going forward."
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Old 14th February 2021, 07:32 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm hearing that the BBC are disinviting experts who want to put the case for zero covid and the programmes are going ahead with no mention of elimination even as a possibility with everyone nodding along to "we'll have to live with it" and "we'll have to accept a certain number of deaths going forward."
Where are you hearing that the BBC is disinviting zero Covid advocates ?
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Old 14th February 2021, 07:34 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm hearing that the BBC are disinviting experts who want to put the case for zero covid and the programmes are going ahead with no mention of elimination even as a possibility with everyone nodding along to "we'll have to live with it" and "we'll have to accept a certain number of deaths going forward."
It's right, it won't ever go away, it's going to be endemic.
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Old 14th February 2021, 07:44 AM   #254
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It won't go away if nobody tries, obviously. It's eminently possible, I mean come on that's obvious, and it will be less traumatic and damaging in the long term to bite the bullet and do it, but Johnson isn't into biting bullets so we're in for repeated lockdowns and half measures "to ease pressure on the NHS" until so many other countries have succeeded that it becomes imperative to do it.

It's fairly clear that this virus doesn't do "endemic" in the sense of always being there at a low level and a few cases occurring but nothing getting out of hand. It's elmination or repeated epidemic spikes.

It's actually quite an easy virus to deal with in many ways. The problem has been that the rapid epidemic spikes have overwhelmed the contact tracing capacity and allowed the whole thing to spiral out of control. If we had a low level of cases that wasn't going to increase like Topsy on speed they they could be picked off pretty easily. So actually if "endemic" ever happened we'd be on an easy path to elimination. It's just that that state of affairs has never occurred in any country.

Conversely several countries have shown that it can be eliminated. Even Scotland managed to eliminate it last summer, without even having a vaccine to help, but blew it by refusing to do anything about the borders. England was only three weeks away from elimination but blew it by "eat out to help out" and of course again borders. With a vaccine it should be a lot easier. We just need to keep the numbers low enough for the contact tracing to work and it will happen.
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Old 14th February 2021, 07:45 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Where are you hearing that the BBC is disinviting zero Covid advocates ?

Twitter thread started by one of the disinvited professors.
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Old 14th February 2021, 10:01 AM   #256
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UK 2021, or Germany 1938?

Do Not Resuscitate, I Have a Learning Disability.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...g-difficulties
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Old 14th February 2021, 10:14 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Newspaper headlines today, Back in the pub garden by easter and Tory backbenchers are demanding this is the final lockdown.
"It is claimed."



Safely ignore, unless it comes from one of Laura Kuennsberg's 'sources at number ten.'
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Old 14th February 2021, 10:40 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post

It's fairly clear that this virus doesn't do "endemic" in the sense of always being there at a low level and a few cases occurring but nothing getting out of hand. It's elmination or repeated epidemic spikes.
Not necessarily. It's been fairly seriously suggested that one of the coronaviruses that causes the common cold was originally the virus that caused an epidemic of respiratory disease in the 1890s. Once it's endemic, and people are exposed to it when children, the effects of the disease are much less severe.
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Old 14th February 2021, 10:56 AM   #259
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That's decades away though, supposing it ever happens. The way the virus is behaving at present there is no reason at all to believe that a time is within easy reach where a certain level of infection can be tolerated because it won't flare up into an epidemic spike.

The epidemic spikes are the problem because they overwhelm both medical treatment facilities and the capabilities of contact tracing teams. They should be cut off when they begin to happen in order to preserve the contact tracing ability - that's more or less what the Hammer and the Dance is describing. Instead Johnson lets the virus rip until the NHS is overwhelmed. The contact tracers have long since given up the ghost by then, and the sheer amount of viral replication has thrown up another handful of seriously problematic mutations, some of which may render people who were previously immune susceptible once more. Way to go.

If the situation were to develop where there was no epidemic resurgence even in the absence of lockdown it wouldn't actually be all that hard to eliminate the virus from that point, because contact tracing would be a practical step. It's not actually a hard virus to combat in that respect, as I've pointed out before. So we wouldn't really need to accept an endemic situation, it could be rectified. The thing is, that situation does not seem to be something that happens, at least in the short-ish term.

The belief that if we just lock down one more time "to protect the NHS" and then relax the restrictions far too early, without any care as to the capability of contact tracing to deal with what's still out there, and the virus somehow magically this time won't flare up into another epidemic spike, is going to keep us in this cycle for the foreseeable I'm afraid.
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Old 14th February 2021, 07:31 PM   #260
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It seems that the woman who contracted covid somehow at work was due a fortnightly covid test on the 1st of february, but missed this because she was on annual leave, and was tested later when she became unwell.
Ardern was questioned at the press conference, and said this was immaterial because sometimes these tests are before the positive result is going to happen.

SPOT THE PROBLEM HERE.

By definition this woman was infected on the 1st of february, so we will not know if this lockdown would have been prevented, and saved a lot of businesses had she been tested at her place of annual leave which is in New Zealand within reach of a covid test.
We also know that Ardern will be unfazed by it, but people like me, who are also losing income right now, will regard her as accountable. The Ardern myth is sailing along as nimbly as Luna Rossa.

Note that she is on TV at every opportunity in this pandemic micromanaging lock downs and so on, but apparently incapable or too indolent to secure the vital testing strategies, as CEO.

ETA employer to the rescue, government guidelines did not mandate the testing.

From Kiwiblog

One of Auckland’s Covid-19 community cases was not required to undergo mandatory testing in her airline catering job because government guidelines did not require it, her employer LSG Sky Chefs says.

Not the impression we had yesterday.

Last edited by Samson; 14th February 2021 at 08:00 PM.
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Old 14th February 2021, 10:50 PM   #261
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
It seems that the woman who contracted covid somehow at work was due a fortnightly covid test on the 1st of february, but missed this because she was on annual leave, and was tested later when she became unwell.
Ardern was questioned at the press conference, and said this was immaterial because sometimes these tests are before the positive result is going to happen.

SPOT THE PROBLEM HERE.

By definition this woman was infected on the 1st of february,
By definition she was infected before the 1st of February (assuming it occurred at work) possibly as long as 2 weeks beforehand assuming 100% accurate testing is possible, or longer if it isn't.

Clearly testing every 2 weeks is not good enough if you want to catch every infection before it gets out into the community. Since any one test may give a false negative (more so if it is weak) you need to test front-line workers several times and get the results back before allowing them to go home - every day!

SPOT THE PROBLEM HERE.

But is even that enough?

Covid-19: LSG Sky Chefs worker was not required to undergo mandatory testing, company says
Quote:
An LSG Sky Chefs spokesman said the woman worked in the laundry area of its catering facility in Māngere where she was responsible for washing and ironing linen, napkins, blankets and sheets returning from incoming flights. Flight crew uniforms were not handled in its laundry facility.

The job required no face-to-face contact with crew or travellers and had no access to the airport, the spokesman said.
Now you have to define 'front-line' as anyone who handles items that were on international aircraft or could have come in contact with them. All these workers, as well as passengers and crew, will have to be thoroughly sanitized before being allowed to go home, in case they may be carrying some of the virus on their person even if they are not infected!

I think you can spot the problem here.

What are the alternatives?

1. Don't wash linen and other items - destroy it all on site.

2. Force workers (even those with no direct contact with the border) to stay strictly self-isolated until the pandemic is over.

3. Don't allow any incoming international flights.

No matter what precautions are taken there is always a risk. The question is where do you strike the balance? Many countries are rightly being lambasted for setting the bar way too low. New Zealand is not one of them, but you have been criticized for setting it too high. Push it much higher and that criticism could be justified.

Originally Posted by Samson
We also know that Ardern will be unfazed by it, but people like me, who are also losing income right now, will regard her as accountable. The Ardern myth is sailing along as nimbly as Luna Rossa.

Note that she is on TV at every opportunity in this pandemic micromanaging lock downs and so on, but apparently incapable or too indolent
I'm sure you could do so much better, right? Perhaps you could offer up your vast intellect and superior management skills (all made possible by that Y chromosome that only men possess) to help the government out.
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Old 15th February 2021, 03:08 AM   #262
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Here is the issue.
This woman worked in a company that had direct contact with international travel.
Maybe it is unrelated her infection but noone on thus thread would believe that.
So she was infected.
Then went on annual leave.
She thus was not tested and would have returned a positive result on february 1 had she been tested.
Then got sick.
Then tested positive.

How can you afford the NZ CEO any forgiveness when lockdowns doom many to a lifetime of poverty?

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Old 15th February 2021, 03:20 AM   #263
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The UK government is proudly proclaiming that 15 million people have been vaccinated.

While this is encouraging and is slightly ahead of schedule, I think it's important for everyone in the UK to understand that most of those 15 million people do not have adequate immunity because they haven't received their second vaccination and insufficient time has passed for them to achieve immunity.

I am somewhat encouraged to see the government pushing back on their backbenchers who are asking (demanding) that all lockdown restrictions are lifted by the end of April. I hope they continue to be this brave and don't chicken out.
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Old 15th February 2021, 03:28 AM   #264
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Todays papers saying
'Now it's Ready Steady Shop' (Mail)
'Johnson eyes Easter escape' (Times)
'Meet grandchildren outdoors in March' (Telegraph)as children are to be exempt from 'one-to-one' gathering rules.
'Road to freedom' (Mirror)
'Britains extraordinary feat boosts hope of lockdown easing from March 8' (Express)



What are the bets that the restrictions are eased too soon again?
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Old 15th February 2021, 03:37 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Todays papers saying
'Now it's Ready Steady Shop' (Mail)
'Johnson eyes Easter escape' (Times)
'Meet grandchildren outdoors in March' (Telegraph)as children are to be exempt from 'one-to-one' gathering rules.
'Road to freedom' (Mirror)
'Britains extraordinary feat boosts hope of lockdown easing from March 8' (Express)



What are the bets that the restrictions are eased too soon again?
Sadly, it's highly likely.

That's why the government is preparing us with lots of "Covid will be endemic" messages so when the inevitable happens and cases spike again, Boris Johnson can repeat his "we've done everything we possibly can" lie.
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Old 15th February 2021, 03:38 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Todays papers saying
'Now it's Ready Steady Shop' (Mail)
'Johnson eyes Easter escape' (Times)
'Meet grandchildren outdoors in March' (Telegraph)as children are to be exempt from 'one-to-one' gathering rules.
'Road to freedom' (Mirror)
'Britains extraordinary feat boosts hope of lockdown easing from March 8' (Express)



What are the bets that the restrictions are eased too soon again?
If this is the government leaking this stuff then it shows the UK media have become little more than propaganda mouthpieces. As House Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has furiously pointed out, such policies should be put before the House first.

Otherwise, I would ignore these dull news articles as mere 'no-news-day' puff pieces.

Why even debate anything that's hypothetical?
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Old 15th February 2021, 03:59 AM   #267
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(Arch Brexiteer) Tim Martin, the chairman of JD Wetherspoons is calling for (his) pubs to open.

Quote:
The chairman of JD Wetherspoon is calling for pubs to reopen at the same time as non-essential shops.

Tim Martin warned that the pub industry was "on its knees" and needed to reopen to save jobs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56068252

Mrs Don and I were walking through Chepstow on Sunday and were delighted to see the JD Wetherspoons, which has sucked the life out of the other pubs in town, standing empty. I wondered out loud whether the Welsh government could announce that pubs could open at some point in the future but limit it to pubs with less than a certain square meterage to limit the risk.

That way, large "drinking barns" like JD Wetherspoons would have to remain closed whilst community and smaller ones could open.
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Old 15th February 2021, 04:03 AM   #268
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
(Arch Brexiteer) Tim Martin, the chairman of JD Wetherspoons is calling for (his) pubs to open.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56068252

Mrs Don and I were walking through Chepstow on Sunday and were delighted to see the JD Wetherspoons, which has sucked the life out of the other pubs in town, standing empty. I wondered out loud whether the Welsh government could announce that pubs could open at some point in the future but limit it to pubs with less than a certain square meterage to limit the risk.

That way, large "drinking barns" like JD Wetherspoons would have to remain closed whilst community and smaller ones could open.
Pubs are an oddity, always will be.
I wonder if work at home could save a tiny fraction for the practitioners that drink at home would guarantee.
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Old 15th February 2021, 07:07 AM   #269
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I find Boris Johnson's rhetoric frankly alarming. He says that the lifting of Covid lockdown restrictions will be "cautious but irreversible".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56068362

In other words, if Covid returns in the Autumn at the same, or even higher, levels as last year then he would refuse to lock down, or even increase restrictions. That sounds very inadvisable to me.

OTOH the leader of the Welsh assembly is not ruling out anything:

Quote:
...Vaughan Gething said ministers would have a "responsibility to act" if there was an upswing in the virus.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56070009
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Old 15th February 2021, 07:46 AM   #270
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Quote:
The government's plan to move out of lockdown will be "cautious but irreversible", Boris Johnson has said..

He told reporters the plan would include target dates for changes "if we possibly can", but he warned high rates of infection could lead to delays
What does irreversible mean?

If the measures are irreversible and it means another rise in infections and we won't bring in new measures then it is bonkers

The comment on delays and dates suggests the plan is not fixed and is reversible.

History suggests this Government can't do anything without a 180° flip as soon as there is a sniff of bad press.

So what is irreversible?

Last edited by Lothian; 15th February 2021 at 07:47 AM.
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Old 15th February 2021, 07:48 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The UK government is proudly proclaiming that 15 million people have been vaccinated.

While this is encouraging and is slightly ahead of schedule, I think it's important for everyone in the UK to understand that most of those 15 million people do not have adequate immunity because they haven't received their second vaccination and insufficient time has passed for them to achieve immunity.

I am somewhat encouraged to see the government pushing back on their backbenchers who are asking (demanding) that all lockdown restrictions are lifted by the end of April. I hope they continue to be this brave and don't chicken out.
Yes, the Tory backbenchers' logic seems to be that once the 9 highest risk groups have been vaccinated, then because they contain 99% of those at risk of dying from Covid-19 it will then be safe to open everything up. That's ignoring the fact that not everyone vaccinated will be fully protected, and that until everyone is vaccinated, there's still the risk of cases overwhelming the NHS if all precautions are dropped, even if deaths are reduced.
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Old 15th February 2021, 08:03 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Yes, the Tory backbenchers' logic seems to be that once the 9 highest risk groups have been vaccinated, then because they contain 99% of those at risk of dying from Covid-19 it will then be safe to open everything up. That's ignoring the fact that not everyone vaccinated will be fully protected, and that until everyone is vaccinated, there's still the risk of cases overwhelming the NHS if all precautions are dropped, even if deaths are reduced.
Yes, it does seem to ignore a number of key points:
  • People don't achieve maximum immunity until some time after their second vaccine
  • Not everyone in a given group will have been vaccinated and/or have given consent for their vaccination
  • Not everyone who has been vaccinated will achieve immunity
  • We're not sure how long immunity will last
  • There are new variants emerging all the time, the vaccines may not be as effective against the new variants

edited to add....

As if by magic, the following just appeared in the BBC Live Feed:

Quote:
There cannot yet be confidence that vaccinations will stop there being "large numbers" of fresh Covid-19 infections, a scientist says.

Professor Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, tells BBC Radio 4's World At One that even if the vaccines being rolled out protect 95% of the population aged over 65, that could still lead to 600,000 new cases among people in the most vulnerable groups.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

Last edited by The Don; 15th February 2021 at 08:05 AM.
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Old 15th February 2021, 09:55 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
What are the bets that the restrictions are eased too soon again?

For sure. I can actually see the Scottish government thinking "oh no we don't want to go through all that again" but not quite having the cojones to stand up to Westminster. We were reminded today that almost all travel between England and Scotland is currently illegal, but what use is that when they're doing bugger-all to enforce it?
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Last edited by Rolfe; 15th February 2021 at 10:07 AM.
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Old 15th February 2021, 10:00 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That's why the government is preparing us with lots of "Covid will be endemic" messages so when the inevitable happens and cases spike again, Boris Johnson can repeat his "we've done everything we possibly can" lie.

The more I think about this "endemic" idea, which is what they've been shooting for all along of course, the more I don't think it's actually a thing that would happen. It's not at all hard to pick off small clusters when they don't snowball out of control and overwhelm the system. If covid is not erupting in a supercharged epidemic spike it's actually controllable. There's no need at all for it to be endemic and I think that would actually be almost a self-limiting situation.
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Old 15th February 2021, 10:03 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I find Boris Johnson's rhetoric frankly alarming. He says that the lifting of Covid lockdown restrictions will be "cautious but irreversible".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56068362

That is insane. Although bear in mind we've been there before and he says one thing then does another without even the slightest blush. Remember he was adamant that furlough could not be extended when the devolved governments asked for that, and as a result a lot of people were laid off, then suddenly when it was needed in England it was extended after all.

He pretty much announced a year ago that Britain would never lock down, then he did it. I just hope this is more of the same.
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Old 15th February 2021, 10:17 AM   #276
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His idiocy is only matched by the fluidity of his immovable positions
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Old 16th February 2021, 01:01 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The more I think about this "endemic" idea, which is what they've been shooting for all along of course, the more I don't think it's actually a thing that would happen. It's not at all hard to pick off small clusters when they don't snowball out of control and overwhelm the system. If covid is not erupting in a supercharged epidemic spike it's actually controllable. There's no need at all for it to be endemic and I think that would actually be almost a self-limiting situation.
The messaging is definitely changing. Paraphrasing an article on the BBC this morning, with a touch of hyperbole, the new message seems to be "20,000 Covid deaths a year is perfectly fine - even 50,000 isn't unusual"


Quote:
It suggests we can get to the point - in the word's of England's chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty - where we "de-risk" Covid.

That does not mean no-one will die. Prof Whitty has talked about getting to a "tolerable" level of death. And certainly many expect next winter will be challenging with particular concern the most deprived communities will be hit hardest amid fears vaccination uptake has been lowest in these areas.

But it is easy to forget that flu can also kill on quite a scale. Back in 2017-18, more than 20,000 people died from it.

It was a harsh, cold winter and deaths from other causes such as heart disease and dementia rose too, pushing excess winter deaths close to 50,000. Society barely blinked.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55985916

There are also a lot more stories about opening things up so it seems to me that Boris Johnson and his government will buckle to special interests and public opinion, open up far too early, squander the effects of the vaccination programme and watch as tens of thousands die of Covid next winter while telling us it was inevitable and unavoidable.


edited to add......

Remember that 20,000 was the forecast total death toll in the early days, now it's a perfectly acceptable annual toll even with a vaccine and treatments.

Last edited by The Don; 16th February 2021 at 01:03 AM.
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Old 16th February 2021, 01:54 AM   #278
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It's insane, and once again reinforces to me that Whitty, for all his qualifications, doesn't have a clue what he's talking about most of the time. Either that, or he does have a clue but is nevertheless prepared to say absolutely anything the current political thinking requires him to say.
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Old 16th February 2021, 02:08 AM   #279
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It's insane, and once again reinforces to me that Whitty, for all his qualifications, doesn't have a clue what he's talking about most of the time. Either that, or he does have a clue but is nevertheless prepared to say absolutely anything the current political thinking requires him to say.
.....or that he really genuinely believes that the "costs" of achieving and maintaining zero Covid (whether financial, societal, reputational or whatever) exceed the "costs" of having Covid "thinning the herd" every year.

For example the government has apparently spent tens of billions of pounds implementing an ineffective test, track and trace programme. Imagine how expensive an effective one would be.

Just because he's a scientist, doesn't mean that he doesn't hold some pretty alarming views
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Old 16th February 2021, 02:53 AM   #280
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In New Zealand we officially recorded the 26th death today, which would be 378 adjusted for British population.
The point is New Zealand will not blend with the British acquiescence. So why would Britain not change tack?
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