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Old 24th September 2021, 12:53 PM   #241
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
- inability to turn himself in due to own death.
I honestly don't understand this commitment to the "he's probably dead" option.
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Old 24th September 2021, 02:53 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
Body language is an extremely powerful thing at times.
Bollocks. It's useless, dangerous, pseudo-science. Like "lie detectors".
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Old 24th September 2021, 02:55 PM   #243
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
Jesus Christ you guys, I wasn't saying that his body language was going to be the evidence they used to put him away; however, talking to him and seeing reactions is telling.
No it's not. Demonstrably police belief in their own ability to interpret "emotional states" has been shown to be nonsense.
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Old 24th September 2021, 03:34 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Bollocks. It's useless, dangerous, pseudo-science. Like "lie detectors".
Lie detectors, especially the polygraph, are somewhat effective at getting confessions from the guilty. And even sometimes from the innocent. But absent a confession, are pretty much useless.

The basic problem is that the most common type, using a control question, has numerous failure modes and flat out fails when the subject is scrupulously honest. It actually depends on the subject lying and getting aroused to something they believe important but that the examiner could care less about to measure against the relevant question.

There is a version of polygraphy that has been shown to work better. The so called guilty knowledge test. Rarely used of course.
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Old 24th September 2021, 03:36 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Bollocks. It's useless, dangerous, pseudo-science. Like "lie detectors".
I agree that body language is not something I would want to base a legal case on, but to deny that people use their bodies, often unconsciously, when communicatng with others is just plain wrong.
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Old 24th September 2021, 08:51 PM   #246
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=buGCeGTuk50

Canít believe Walsh said this. Personally Iím one who believes he has offed himself or will do so, but I donít think he needs such encouragement.
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Old 25th September 2021, 01:05 AM   #247
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Walsh may have some personal bias against these types of people.

I typed the above sentence then watched the video. Holy crap! Was it aired live? That was brutal. But like I said he's obviously not the one to be on a jury.

My sister became very good friends with the father of a missing child. Very famous nationally televised case in the PNW, Oprah, FBI etc. Child hasn't been found. I don't think I could go on at all after that.
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Old 25th September 2021, 03:24 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I agree that body language is not something I would want to base a legal case on, but to deny that people use their bodies, often unconsciously, when communicatng with others is just plain wrong.
However, interpreting that consistently and accurately is problematic, if doable at all.
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Old 25th September 2021, 03:50 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King View Post
However, interpreting that consistently and accurately is problematic, if doable at all.
Don't professional poker players do it quite well? Maybe they should have one sit in in interrogations?
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Old 25th September 2021, 04:41 PM   #250
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Now that "Dog the Bounty Hunter" is on the case, this thing should be wrapped up pretty soon.
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Old 25th September 2021, 08:47 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I agree that body language is not something I would want to base a legal case on, but to deny that people use their bodies, often unconsciously, when communicatng with others is just plain wrong.
Perhaps, however not every person 'speaks' the same body language. People without mirror neurons have trouble reading the expressions, tones, and movements of those around them, and because they don't know the 'language', they're not going to be able to put out the correct signals to match their mental state.
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Old 25th September 2021, 10:42 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by Athyrio View Post
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=buGCeGTuk50

Canít believe Walsh said this. Personally Iím one who believes he has offed himself or will do so, but I donít think he needs such encouragement.
Walsh does have personal bias and he some times goes a bit nutso, but this is beyond appropriate. He is a badass who has found many people and brought many criminals to justice. And I sort of get what he is saying. If you are going to kill yourself, do it where you can be found so we can end this and your parents have a body. But he went off the wall a bit actually encouraging suicide.
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Old 25th September 2021, 10:45 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I don't think that applies here.
I am not jumping to conclusions, but I am certainly all on board for wild speculation.
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Old 27th September 2021, 06:40 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I honestly don't understand this commitment to the "he's probably dead" option.
I'm also puzzled by this, but it remains a valid addition to your list.

I'm also not familiar at all with the area he is said to have gone hiking/hiding in, but is it really 'near impossible' to remain alive there for a week or two, as some have described it?
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Old 27th September 2021, 07:42 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by TofuFighter View Post
I'm also puzzled by this, but it remains a valid addition to your list.

I'm also not familiar at all with the area he is said to have gone hiking/hiding in, but is it really 'near impossible' to remain alive there for a week or two, as some have described it?
It's probably near impossible to survive anywhere for two weeks, if you don't have water. If he walked out that way with nothing but his cell phone and his wallet, he's probably pretty hungry by now. And cold and dirty and maybe with the runs from drinking unfiltered water. On the other hand, if he's got a bedroll and a tarp and rucksack full of dried food, he's probably doing alright. Especially if he's meeting family members periodically for resupply and so forth. Which is my bet for what's going on right now.
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Old 27th September 2021, 08:07 AM   #256
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
If he walked out that way with nothing but his cell phone and his wallet, he's probably pretty hungry by now.
Reports are that he left his cell phone and wallet home. Lack of cell phone has been cited as a reason he can't be tracked.
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Old 27th September 2021, 08:19 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It's probably near impossible to survive anywhere for two weeks, if you don't have water. If he walked out that way with nothing but his cell phone and his wallet, he's probably pretty hungry by now. And cold and dirty and maybe with the runs from drinking unfiltered water. On the other hand, if he's got a bedroll and a tarp and rucksack full of dried food, he's probably doing alright. Especially if he's meeting family members periodically for resupply and so forth. Which is my bet for what's going on right now.
If the cops are actually trying to locate him, I doubt he would be able to meet with known associates that easily. I imagine the cops are already quite skeptical of his parents and would not make it easy for them to resupply their fugitive son.
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Old 27th September 2021, 08:31 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
If the cops are actually trying to locate him, I doubt he would be able to meet with known associates that easily. I imagine the cops are already quite skeptical of his parents and would not make it easy for them to resupply their fugitive son.
It doesn't have to be easy, and if the place he's going to is a bit off the map then it wouldn't be hard to tell if you're being tailed. They could have a drop location setup or might even have a way to communicate with him. Anything is possible.
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Old 27th September 2021, 08:44 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Reports are that he left his cell phone and wallet home. Lack of cell phone has been cited as a reason he can't be tracked.
See what I mean?

It's implausible to me that he or anyone else would intentionally go out into the woods to die of hunger and/or exposure. If he wanted to take his own life, he'd just do so. And it wouldn't matter if the cops could track his cell phone.

I think the most likely explanation is that he planned to stay alive, away from his phone, in the hopes that with time some viable exit from this mess will occur to him. It could even end up that the solution that occurs to him is suicide. But I don't think he went into the woods to die. I think he went into the woods to buy time before he has to face the music.
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Old 27th September 2021, 08:47 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
See what I mean?

It's implausible to me that he or anyone else would intentionally go out into the woods to die of hunger and/or exposure. If he wanted to take his own life, he'd just do so. And it wouldn't matter if the cops could track his cell phone.

I think the most likely explanation is that he planned to stay alive, away from his phone, in the hopes that with time some viable exit from this mess will occur to him. It could even end up that the solution that occurs to him is suicide. But I don't think he went into the woods to die. I think he went into the woods to buy time before he has to face the music.
If that is the case, I suspect there's a good chance he's not in this swamp at all. Doesn't seem beyond the pale that his folks lied about him entering the swamp, or he doubled back and made arrangements to go somewhere else on the sly.

Sending the cops on a wild goose chase in the swamp seems a good way to remain on the lam.
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Old 27th September 2021, 08:52 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
If the cops are actually trying to locate him, I doubt he would be able to meet with known associates that easily. I imagine the cops are already quite skeptical of his parents and would not make it easy for them to resupply their fugitive son.
I doubt it's sustainable, but I haven't seen anything to make me think it can't have been working so far. Say he loaded up for a few days or so before he headed out. Say he met up for resupply once or twice early on, before all the warrants were obtained and all the resources were in place to closely monitor his family. So now he's got a couple weeks of supplies, and his family is struggling to figure out how to keep supplying him as the government eye gazes ever more closely.

Maybe he's caught when someone risks another supply run and gives away his location.

Maybe he's caught when his supplies run out and he turns himself in because he realizes there's no more help coming.

Maybe he's caught by good old-fashioned G-man legwork before his supplies run out.

Maybe he ends things by his own hand when he realizes there's no more help coming.

Maybe he's already ended things by his own hand, having realized there is no viable exit from this mess except to go through it.

Those are my preferred options, roughly in order of plausibility to me.
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Old 27th September 2021, 09:02 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I doubt it's sustainable, but I haven't seen anything to make me think it can't have been working so far. Say he loaded up for a few days or so before he headed out. Say he met up for resupply once or twice early on, before all the warrants were obtained and all the resources were in place to closely monitor his family. So now he's got a couple weeks of supplies, and his family is struggling to figure out how to keep supplying him as the government eye gazes ever more closely.

Maybe he's caught when someone risks another supply run and gives away his location.

Maybe he's caught when his supplies run out and he turns himself in because he realizes there's no more help coming.

Maybe he's caught by good old-fashioned G-man legwork before his supplies run out.

Maybe he ends things by his own hand when he realizes there's no more help coming.

Maybe he's already ended things by his own hand, having realized there is no viable exit from this mess except to go through it.

Those are my preferred options, roughly in order of plausibility to me.
Maybe he's in a motel in Idaho, laughing at the idea of cops wading through a swamp looking for him.
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Old 27th September 2021, 10:06 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Maybe he's in a motel in Idaho, laughing at the idea of cops wading through a swamp looking for him.
Probably not Idaho, but sure. I'm not super invested in the idea that he was allegedly seen heading into a wildlife preserve, so that's obviously where he must be hiding. Wander in, meet up with someone at vista point or wherever, then drive three hours in the opposite direction to a motel that doesn't bother with occupant ID at check-in.
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Old 27th September 2021, 11:11 AM   #264
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Maybe he's in a motel in Idaho, laughing at the idea of cops wading through a swamp looking for him.
Lots of coastland in Florida, lots of boats and planes for hire. My guess is that he's in the Bahamas or Bermuda. Or was, he might have moved on somewhere else by now.
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Old 27th September 2021, 11:59 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate View Post
Walsh does have personal bias and he some times goes a bit nutso, but this is beyond appropriate. He is a badass who has found many people and brought many criminals to justice. And I sort of get what he is saying. If you are going to kill yourself, do it where you can be found so we can end this and your parents have a body. But he went off the wall a bit actually encouraging suicide.
And he doubled down on that request in several interviews.

I dunno, ordinarily I would not approve of someone encouraging suicide, but I kind of give him a pass on this, because he explained his position in the interviews, and it's based on logic--not emotion or bias.

As he (correctly) pointed out, if Laundrie is caught half the country will want him executed and the other half will want him to spend 50+ years in jail. Either option would be an enormous bill for the taxpayers, including the victim's family. Along with probably an emotionally grueling trial. His request was a call to conscience, saying that the 'honorable' thing to do would be to end it to spare everyone that cost. A life for a life--without involving the state. Is that really wrong, ethically, morally, whatever? But Walsh said that since Laundrie likely has no conscience, he would not do it.
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Old 27th September 2021, 12:35 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Lots of coastland in Florida, lots of boats and planes for hire. My guess is that he's in the Bahamas or Bermuda. Or was, he might have moved on somewhere else by now.
What's your guess on how he paid for that, and his lifestyle going forward?
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Old 27th September 2021, 01:35 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
What's your guess on how he paid for that, and his lifestyle going forward?
Hiring a boat or a little plane might only be some hundreds of dollars. Lots of people just travel to those islands on their own relatively little boats and planes. I mean, its not like boating on Lake Powell, but its not "Deadliest Catch" level difficulty either (not usually, at least).

After that, who knows? My guess is that his family may be trying to get money into accounts he can access. Maybe via IOU's from friends and relatives.
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Old 27th September 2021, 03:47 PM   #268
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I think Brian has skipped for sure, and he's not huddling and starving in some Florida swamp. I'd guess his family is complicit in helping him disappear, but we shall see. All of this makes him look damned guilty of murder.
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Old 27th September 2021, 03:55 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Hiring a boat or a little plane might only be some hundreds of dollars. Lots of people just travel to those islands on their own relatively little boats and planes. I mean, its not like boating on Lake Powell, but its not "Deadliest Catch" level difficulty either (not usually, at least).

After that, who knows? My guess is that his family may be trying to get money into accounts he can access. Maybe via IOU's from friends and relatives.
I doubt anyone in my family would have the first clue about how to get me to the Bahamas without leaving a paper trail, or setting up bank accounts I could use without getting caught. Especially not from a standing start with the authorities already starting to look at them.

Unless this guy actually has a history of bopping around the Caribbean, landing on unwatched beaches and bypassing customs controls, I don't think much of this possibility. Camping out in the local backwoods or a cheap motel seems like a much more plausible idea to me.
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Old 27th September 2021, 04:32 PM   #270
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All the reports I've seen say the police/FBI are still concentrating on the Reserve and have intelligence that allows them to focus the search. If LE suspected he was on the run, wouldn't they benefit by saying so?
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Old 27th September 2021, 05:11 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
All the reports I've seen say the police/FBI are still concentrating on the Reserve and have intelligence that allows them to focus the search. If LE suspected he was on the run, wouldn't they benefit by saying so?
You must have something else in mind. To me, the current state of affairs is quite accurately described as "he's on the run", and doesn't need belaboring by law enforcement.
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Old 27th September 2021, 06:56 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
Now that "Dog the Bounty Hunter" is on the case, this thing should be wrapped up pretty soon.
What a coincidence 'Dog the bounty hunter' suddenly found enough interest in a case that's gone nationwide, yet had no interest what so ever in investigating several hundred other missing persons cases that had previously gone unsolved. - Then goes on to use his daughter Barbara, who died while riding in a stolen car, as an excuse as to why he's so emotionally involved. - Talk about a sordid publicity stunt from a one-time career criminal who's only motivation is to capitalize upon the Gabby Petito case. This, and because its not like 710 indigenous people would have ever gotten the same attention.

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Old 27th September 2021, 07:07 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by michael44 View Post
What a coincidence 'Dog the bounty hunter' suddenly found enough interest in a case that's gone nationwide, yet had no interest what so ever in investigating several hundred other missing persons cases that had previously gone unsolved. - Then goes on to use his daughter Barbara, who died while riding in a stolen car, as an excuse as to why he's so emotionally involved. - Talk about a sordid publicity stunt from a one-time career criminal who's only motivation is to capitalize upon the Gabby Petito case. This, and because its not like 710 indigenous people would have ever gotten the same attention.
I agree. We should totally make this thread be about Dogg the Bounty Hunter. Forget what's her name the dead girl. Forget the prime suspect. Tell us more about this Dogg fellow and why you don't like him.
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Old 27th September 2021, 07:13 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by eerok View Post
I think Brian has skipped for sure, and he's not huddling and starving in some Florida swamp. I'd guess his family is complicit in helping him disappear, but we shall see. All of this makes him look damned guilty of murder.
I find it rather doubtful he's holed up somewhere's in one of Florida's swamps. Especially when taken into consideration all the resources that have been utilized to find him (dead). Best guess as you've noted, is his family has been complicit in relocating him - quite possibly to somewhere's outside the US.
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Old 27th September 2021, 07:16 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I agree. We should totally make this thread be about Dogg the Bounty Hunter. Forget what's her name the dead girl. Forget the prime suspect. Tell us more about this Dogg fellow and why you don't like him.
Pretty sure I've given reason enough to ignore him.
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Old 27th September 2021, 07:17 PM   #276
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Originally Posted by michael44 View Post
I find it rather doubtful he's holed up somewhere's in one of Florida's swamps. Especially when taken into consideration all the resources that have been utilized to find him (dead). Best guess as you've noted, is his family has been complicit in relocating him - quite possibly to somewhere's outside the US.
You have a ridiculously over inflated view of the resources of the average middle class American family.
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Old 27th September 2021, 07:33 PM   #277
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You have a ridiculously over inflated view of the resources of the average middle class American family.
I also have a ridiculously over inflated view of the resources that lower class families have. Which are close to none.
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Old 27th September 2021, 07:53 PM   #278
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Originally Posted by michael44 View Post
I also have a ridiculously over inflated view of the resources that lower class families have. Which are close to none.
Then can you paint a picture of what you think is going on that explains how what you said is plausible? The authorities seem to be doing something other than what you think they should be doing. The fugitive's family doesn't seem to have had much opportunity to do what you're suggesting they did. What am I missing?
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Old 28th September 2021, 06:17 AM   #279
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Dog the Bounty Hunter says he found a camping site where he is sure the fugitive and his family had been camping. Don't know if it is true or not but it at least seems possible.
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Old 28th September 2021, 06:44 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Then can you paint a picture of what you think is going on that explains how what you said is plausible? The authorities seem to be doing something other than what you think they should be doing. The fugitive's family doesn't seem to have had much opportunity to do what you're suggesting they did. What am I missing?
Brian and his family had weeks to come up with something. How much opportunity do they need? I don't see what's implausible about them sending Brian off with some cash, and then pointing the cops in a different direction. As long as we're speculating, that seems like a possibility.
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