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Old 13th June 2018, 09:01 AM   #3201
Francesca R
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OK. 1973 I think.
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Old 13th June 2018, 09:04 AM   #3202
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No, I think the Single market was only established in 1993 - and that is when the customs posts were removed. The military checkpoints weren't completely removed until (according to Wikipedia) 2005.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republ...Kingdom_border

Last edited by ceptimus; 13th June 2018 at 09:06 AM.
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Old 13th June 2018, 09:43 AM   #3203
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Nonsense. There was no hard border between Ireland and NI before the SM and CU even existed.
Untrue.
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Old 13th June 2018, 10:19 AM   #3204
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
How about 1 mile away ?

If the amendment is that specific then it'll have to be ignored instead because the Conservative government is hellbent on at least a "firm" Brexit if not a "hard" Brexit



Better than it moving to Paris or Frankfurt ?
Its just been written into British law so how does that work?
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Old 13th June 2018, 10:43 AM   #3205
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
Its just been written into British law so how does that work?
A quiet amendment on a dull Tuesday afternoon when everyone's away ?

An argument based on "it depends on what your definition of is, is" ?

Insisting that the government did everything it could but those horrible meanies in the EU wouldn't accommodate its very reasonable request to have all the benefits of EU membership without the four freedoms and having to abide by EU laws and so the only way to avoid a "no deal" is to go for a deal which unfortunately puts a hard border in place pending technology which is surely just around the corner which will prevent a hard border*

Governments seem to find a way to disregard previous commitments.

* - even if technology magically-schmagically makes customs checks redundant, I cannot see how movement of people can be controlled without a hard border - and isn't keeping undesirables out keeping control of our borders one of the key drivers for Brexit
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Old 13th June 2018, 10:56 AM   #3206
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I think it's a fair assumption that the majority didn't vote for a watered down half-remain result that everyone agrees will be worse than what we had before (...)
To argue that any of the majority of voters that voted leave wanted such an outcome is a lie.
Do you therefore accept my tentative suggestion that Brexiteers
Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
... were voting for the EU somehow to vanish from sight all at once. I suppose that means, more rationally, that the UK would simply walk away from it without formalities of any kind.

Members of ethnic minorities, whether from EU nationalities or not, reported Brexiteers telling them that they must leave the country "because that's what the British people voted for."
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Old 13th June 2018, 12:06 PM   #3207
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A quiet amendment on a dull Tuesday afternoon when everyone's away ?

An argument based on "it depends on what your definition of is, is" ?

Insisting that the government did everything it could but those horrible meanies in the EU wouldn't accommodate its very reasonable request to have all the benefits of EU membership without the four freedoms and having to abide by EU laws and so the only way to avoid a "no deal" is to go for a deal which unfortunately puts a hard border in place pending technology which is surely just around the corner which will prevent a hard border*

Governments seem to find a way to disregard previous commitments.

* - even if technology magically-schmagically makes customs checks redundant, I cannot see how movement of people can be controlled without a hard border - and isn't keeping undesirables out keeping control of our borders one of the key drivers for Brexit
If they're going to do that they will have to do it quickly - as in, before October. The EU will not be giving them a transition and a trade deal without concrete agreements which keep the Irish border as it is.
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Old 13th June 2018, 01:51 PM   #3208
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
The amendment specifies no physical infrastructure at the Irish border.
That's not the same as 'no hard border'.

HMRC said that 'max fac' could be done with no new infrastructure at the border.

See:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44230523

Last edited by Aber; 13th June 2018 at 01:53 PM.
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Old 13th June 2018, 01:53 PM   #3209
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
* - case in point. My local brewery, BaaBrewing, makes a range of excellent bitters and a really nice IPA - I wouldn't drink their pilsner again on a bet. The same is true of the Kingstone Brewery, great beers, really lousy lager. In both cases, they're also a lot more expensive than some pretty decent imported stuff.


*** edited to add ***
Less choice and a reliance on locally-made products feels like a return to the 1970s to me. At the time I was living in a small town in the North East of England. Consumer choice at the time was limited to say the least.
Serves you right for drinking Lager.

As someone else that grew up in a North East town at the same time I had plenty of choice of good beers.
Theakstons, Sam Smiths, Camerons and Whitbread Castle Eden were all available. John Smiths Magnet was a superb beer until they stopped doing it as a Cask Ale.

ETA Weatherspoons are just making a cynical marketing move.
They know what their customer base thinks.

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 13th June 2018 at 01:57 PM.
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Old 13th June 2018, 03:12 PM   #3210
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Weatherspoons are just making a cynical marketing move.
They know what their customer base thinks.
I would seem they know very much what the usual customers for most of their stock lines are, and which they can change for a Union-flagged version imitation, and which they can't. Apparently they're not looking for a replacement for Kopparberg cider.

Last edited by Information Analyst; 13th June 2018 at 03:16 PM.
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Old 13th June 2018, 03:48 PM   #3211
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Nick Robinson tweets

@bbcnickrobinson
"Let me see if I’ve understood what happened today. PM bought off a Remain revolt by convincing MPs they’d get a meaningful vote on deal but avoided Brexiteer revolt by saying she would not allow one. What can possibly go wrong? (Watching from Moscow so may have misunderstood ...)"
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Old 13th June 2018, 10:52 PM   #3212
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Serves you right for drinking Lager.
I don't when there's proper beer available

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
As someone else that grew up in a North East town at the same time I had plenty of choice of good beers.
Theakstons, Sam Smiths, Camerons and Whitbread Castle Eden were all available. John Smiths Magnet was a superb beer until they stopped doing it as a Cask Ale.
I agree, and it's got even better in the meantime. We've started going back a lot more because of my dad's ill health. Now he's in a nursing home we can go out in the evening - back to my old regular. They now have six impeccably kept ales, Strongarm and Landlord are always on and then there are four local guest ales - brilliant.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
ETA Weatherspoons are just making a cynical marketing move.
They know what their customer base thinks.
Yes probably.
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Old 14th June 2018, 01:28 AM   #3213
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Strongarm and Landlord are always on and then there are four local guest ales - brilliant.


A 'Tap and Spile' pub?
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Old 14th June 2018, 01:42 AM   #3214
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
A 'Tap and Spile' pub?
I don't think so, I think it's independent....

http://theoldwellinn.co.uk/

It's really strange starting to become semi-regular (we've been in about half a dozen times in the last three months) in a pub where you spent the majority of your youth. It's been completely revamped and redecorated but food and beer is as good as it was 30+ years ago.

We're now timing our visits to my dad to make sure we can make Thursday night open-mics...
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Old 14th June 2018, 02:15 AM   #3215
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
...that the government promised in advance to honour the result of, and which has since been voted on and agreed multiple times by parliament, with further manifesto promises made by the winning party at the last general election...
How meaningful are those votes in parliament when you have threats against MPs to vote a certain way:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...lowing-threats

"Prominent Tory backbencher Anna Soubry said colleagues were being spooked by angry voters over their positions on Brexit, and one would be unable to vote "in accordance with their conscience" as a result.

Ms Soubry also revealed that one MP had to be accompanied to a public event have six armed undercover officer because of death threats they had received over Brexit."

And:
"“At least one [MP] on these benches will today and tomorrow not vote in accordance with their conscience because of threats to their personal safety, to their parliamentary staff and members of their family,” she said.

“Mr Speaker, do you take that as a very serious threat to the democracy of this place?” she asked John Bercow."
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Old 14th June 2018, 03:09 AM   #3216
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Sadly Remain also came without an expiry date.
Remain didn't "come" at all. Remain means no change. The measure voted on was leave. I agree that an "expiry date" is not relevant to such a decision.

Last edited by Craig B; 14th June 2018 at 03:13 AM.
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Old 14th June 2018, 03:15 AM   #3217
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
That's not the same as 'no hard border'.

HMRC said that 'max fac' could be done with no new infrastructure at the border.

See:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44230523
A snap st twenty billion pounds per annum.
Or Stg£385M per week...
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Old 14th June 2018, 03:18 AM   #3218
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Serves you right for drinking Lager.

As someone else that grew up in a North East town at the same time I had plenty of choice of good beers.
Theakstons, Sam Smiths, Camerons and Whitbread Castle Eden were all available. John Smiths Magnet was a superb beer until they stopped doing it as a Cask Ale.

ETA Weatherspoons are just making a cynical marketing move.
They know what their customer base thinks.
Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
I would seem they know very much what the usual customers for most of their stock lines are, and which they can change for a Union-flagged version imitation, and which they can't. Apparently they're not looking for a replacement for Kopparberg cider.
[OT]Slight deja-vu given the ep of Midsomer Murders we watched last night.
[/OT]
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Old 14th June 2018, 03:29 AM   #3219
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
A snap st twenty billion pounds per annum.
Or Stg£385M per week...
That estimate was bollocks - it was based on an extrapolation of a round sum estimate of the cost of doing a single customs declaration. £20bn is roughly equivalent to half a million people being employed full-time doing customs declarations.
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Old 14th June 2018, 03:56 AM   #3220
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
That estimate was bollocks - it was based on an extrapolation of a round sum estimate of the cost of doing a single customs declaration. £20bn is roughly equivalent to half a million people being employed full-time doing customs declarations.
Well that's how you rationalised it upthread, I'm not aware that the study was that specific.

£20bn may well be equivalent to half a million people being employed full time. It may also be lots of people spending a few hours a week dealing with this sort of stuff, a few hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of pounds being added to the monthly IT, process and hardware costs of an organisation together with whatever secure warehousing will be required if physical goods are being moved around.

My business deals almost exclusively with the EU (our UK business is almost trivial) and we deal in professional services. I'm not yet sure what kind of customs arrangements there will be but if they're anything like the hoops we had to jump through to do business in the US then it'll be torturous. In the end there wasn't that much business and we could afford to walk away from it, the same isn't true for the EU.


edited to add....

Sorry I was wrong , it was based on individual declarations but AFAIK the Nottingham business school did factor in economies of scale.

Last edited by The Don; 14th June 2018 at 03:59 AM.
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Old 14th June 2018, 04:32 AM   #3221
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
That estimate was bollocks - it was based on an extrapolation of a round sum estimate of the cost of doing a single customs declaration. £20bn is roughly equivalent to half a million people being employed full-time doing customs declarations.
Yes, it drastically underestimates the impact as it doesn't include frictional costs.
At an Business Conference organised by the Financial Times, Juergen Maier
(UK chief executive of Siemens), said it was “complete nonsense” to suggest that new customs procedures were not going to add new frictions to UK trade with the EU.
Indeed, he said that a high-friction model, such as max fac, would have higher costs than the £20bn because “it does not include the cost of delays” and other impediments to business, which he used to deal with before the single market was created.

HMRC officials took the figures from external studies, where clients have to fill in forms describing the proof of origin of the product; whether there are any trade preferences that apply to the product; whether the company has the correct licences to send the product; the value of the product and an exact description of it.*Completing the declaration is a legal necessity.
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Old 14th June 2018, 04:33 AM   #3222
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Well that's how you rationalised it upthread, I'm not aware that the study was that specific.

£20bn may well be equivalent to half a million people being employed full time. It may also be lots of people spending a few hours a week dealing with this sort of stuff, a few hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of pounds being added to the monthly IT, process and hardware costs of an organisation together with whatever secure warehousing will be required if physical goods are being moved around.

My business deals almost exclusively with the EU (our UK business is almost trivial) and we deal in professional services. I'm not yet sure what kind of customs arrangements there will be but if they're anything like the hoops we had to jump through to do business in the US then it'll be torturous. In the end there wasn't that much business and we could afford to walk away from it, the same isn't true for the EU.


edited to add....

Sorry I was wrong , it was based on individual declarations but AFAIK the Nottingham business school did factor in economies of scale.
Amortised costs of additional IT infrastructure.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:02 AM   #3223
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Remain didn't "come" at all. Remain means no change. The measure voted on was leave. I agree that an "expiry date" is not relevant to such a decision.
Wrong. We've not always been in the EU you know. At one time the EU didn't even exist.


We joined the "Common Market" as it then was - and had a referendum that decided we wanted to remain in it. The Common Market then gradually morphed into the EU.


What most remainers wanted was to return to the common market - free trading but without the accompanying political unity. The EU weren't prepared to offer that, so now we're leaving.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:27 AM   #3224
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
One of the amendments passed last night requires no hard border between Ireland and NI. Since there is no way to uphold that without staying in the SM and CU, Brexit is effectively dead in the water, or at least a hard Brexit is.
Except of course the no deal brexit.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:36 AM   #3225
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Except of course the no deal brexit.
No deal Brexit would create a hard border so yes, that's dead in the water too. I can't really see how the UK government are going to square this circle - max fac has already been rejected by the EU, the backstop solution has been rejected by the British government, and the Norway + CU option would cause uproar from Brexit voters.

The government seem to have backed themselves into a corner.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:45 AM   #3226
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
No deal Brexit would create a hard border so yes, that's dead in the water too. I can't really see how the UK government are going to square this circle - max fac has already been rejected by the EU, the backstop solution has been rejected by the British government, and the Norway + CU option would cause uproar from Brexit voters.

The government seem to have backed themselves into a corner.
Which is why a no deal exit seems unavoidable, because it is the only one that doesn't require them to come to some kind of agreement. They just have to not get enough support to prevent it.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:50 AM   #3227
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No deal might well create a hard border, but the UK government could argue, "We've not created the hard border - it is the EU side that's done that."

If that situation does arise, it will be interesting to see who actually builds the EU's hard border infrastructure, and who pays for it. The Irish government has insisted that it doesn't want a hard border, but it might well be forced by the EU to build it and fund much of the cost in the event of a no deal Brexit.

Last edited by ceptimus; 14th June 2018 at 06:55 AM.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:55 AM   #3228
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No deal might well create a hard border, but the UK government could argue, "We've not created the hard border - it is the EU side that's done that."


If that situation does arise, it will be interesting to see who actually builds the EU's hard border infrastructure, and who pays for it. The Irish government has insisted that it doesn't want a hard border, but it might well be forced by the EU to build it and fund much of the cost in the event of a no deal Brexit.
Its long past time Brexiters stopped rolling out this piece of BS. If there's no deal the UK will be obliged to place customs posts at its side of the border under the rules of the WTO/WCO. The UK government knows that, if they walk away with no deal they will be creating a hard border and they will be obliged to police it.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:58 AM   #3229
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Which is why a no deal exit seems unavoidable, because it is the only one that doesn't require them to come to some kind of agreement. They just have to not get enough support to prevent it.
The consequences of a no deal Brexit would be fairly catastrophic though, not sure any government would be prepared for it.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:58 AM   #3230
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Are you saying that the EU WON'T be obliged to place customs posts at its side of the border under the rules of the WTO/WCO?
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:59 AM   #3231
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Wrong. We've not always been in the EU you know. At one time the EU didn't even exist.


We joined the "Common Market" as it then was - and had a referendum that decided we wanted to remain in it. The Common Market then gradually morphed into the EU.


What most remainers wanted was to return to the common market - free trading but without the accompanying political unity. The EU weren't prepared to offer that, so now we're leaving.
A long time ago I was a member of a golf club. I went back recently to have a look around and the course has changed a lot. There are four completely new holes, two of the old par threes have been combined to make a par four, the tiny saplings of my youth have grown into large trees and the course is longer, tighter and, as a consequence, tougher.

It's that way because the majority of the members apparently want it that way. If the highlighted is true*, what the Leavers were asking for was the equivalent of me asking to be able to play the 1970's version of the golf course - things have moved on, that ship has sailed so we're leaving the club.

What Brexiteers seem to be asking for is to be able to play the 1970's version of the course, for free - which is never going to happen.

* - of course it isn't really the case. The customs union and EEA provide an ease of doing business that far surpasses anything covered by the 1970s common market. A return to common market rules would, IMO, be a rude awakening to those, like myself who haven't experienced 1970's commerce. There are industries and working methods that didn't exist back then and the common market wouldn't even begin to address their needs.

Like so many Leave talking points, it's a gross distortion and/or oversimplification of the real world.
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Old 14th June 2018, 06:59 AM   #3232
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Are you saying that the EU WON'T be obliged to place customs posts at its side of the border under the rules of the WTO/WCO?
BOTH sides would be required to have customs posts in the event of a no deal Brexit. And it would be Britain's fault.
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Old 14th June 2018, 07:02 AM   #3233
ceptimus
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
And it would be Britain's fault.

Either or both sides in a negotiation can be responsible for failing to reach a deal. Usually both sides think that the fault is with the other side.
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Old 14th June 2018, 07:05 AM   #3234
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
The consequences of a no deal Brexit would be fairly catastrophic though, not sure any government would be prepared for it.
As long as they don't catch the blame from their supporters so what? I am skeptical that Country over Party will win the day.
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Old 14th June 2018, 07:10 AM   #3235
Strawberry
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Either or both sides in a negotiation can be responsible for failing to reach a deal. Usually both sides think that the fault is with the other side.
It is Britain which has elected to leave the EU and Britain which has chosen to surround itself with contradictory red lines making a deal nigh on impossible. Nobody is to blame here other than Britain.
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Old 14th June 2018, 07:15 AM   #3236
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
As long as they don't catch the blame from their supporters so what? I am skeptical that Country over Party will win the day.
IMO the actions to date of both the Conservative and Labour parties have demonstrated what you say in spades.
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Old 14th June 2018, 07:39 AM   #3237
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
HMRC officials took the figures from external studies, where clients have to fill in forms describing the proof of origin of the product; whether there are any trade preferences that apply to the product; whether the company has the correct licences to send the product; the value of the product and an exact description of it.*Completing the declaration is a legal necessity.
And that is what Stock item codes are for.

The likely costs are for setting up computer systems with the correct info (much of which is already needed for Intrastat) rather than a cost for completing each form individually.
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Old 14th June 2018, 08:00 AM   #3238
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Nonsense. There was no hard border between Ireland and NI before the SM and CU even existed.
Anglo-Irish Trade WarWP
On taking over power and coming into office in 1932, the new Fianna Fáil government under Éamon de Valera embarked upon a protectionist policy in economic dealings, and tariffs were introduced for a wide range of imported goods, mainly from Britain, the Free State's largest trading partner by far. This was thought necessary to develop native industry, move away from over-dependence on Britain, as well as its failure to develop industrially under free market conditions.
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Old 14th June 2018, 08:30 AM   #3239
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
What most remainers wanted was to return to the common market - free trading but without the accompanying political unity. The EU weren't prepared to offer that, so now we're leaving.
Really?
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Old 14th June 2018, 09:35 AM   #3240
Dave Rogers
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
What most remainers wanted was to return to the common market - free trading but without the accompanying political unity.
The only people I've met who say they wanted that voted Leave. Sadly, though, since the referendum required a binary answer, we can never know what the majority of either side actually wanted; we can only look at what constructions the various factions have projected on to the vote in order to manufacture spurious evidence for their own personal aims being those of some hypothetical majority.

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