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Old 11th July 2019, 02:20 AM   #3361
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That about sums it up IMO. I made the mistake of reading some of the comments. A number of people think that Labour will get a different deal, and a softer Brexit because they will have a different set of "red lines" than those adopted by Theresa May. Personally I don't see that at all:
  • Labour's refusal to recognise the "four freedoms" prevents EEA membership
  • Labour's insistence on having separate trade deals and providing high levels of state aid to certain companies and industries precludes membership of a Customs Union
TBH that does not preclude a deal. Labour might consent to a customs border in the Irish sea and work from that. Overall Brexit is still painfully hard, the kind of hard that comes with a printed warning to seek medical assistance if it lasts for more than four hours, but way, way better than a no deal Brexit.

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I suppose that if Labour recognise the European Courts then a Ukraine-style deal might be on the cards but IMO that's not a significantly softer Brexit and certainly not something that's going to attract my vote.
Yeah. I mean, would it really be so bad if UK were like Norway?
I remember someone relevant making that recommendation a few years back.

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Old 11th July 2019, 02:32 AM   #3362
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
TBH that does not preclude a deal. Labour might consent to a customs border in the Irish sea and work from that. Overall Brexit is still painfully hard, the kind of hard that comes with a printed warning to seek medical assistance if it lasts for more than four hours, but way, way better than a no deal Brexit.
It doesnt preclude a deal, but any such deal wont be significantly different to Theresa May's deal that was rejected several times. A customs border in the Irish sea is just a permanent backstop.


Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Yeah. I mean, would it really be so bad if UK were like Norway?
I remember someone relevant making that recommendation a few years back.

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A Norway-style deal is not possible, unless the Labour changes two of its red lines, it's opposition to the four freedoms and its insistence on having separate trade deals.
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Old 11th July 2019, 03:01 AM   #3363
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
One of the supposed reasons for Brexit was so that we would "regain our sovereignty". Seems like the US President is telling us who our ambassador should be. Can't see that happening if we weren't desperate for a trade deal
And in the most Trump way doesn't have the guts to actually declare him Persona Non Grata and have him tossed out. He has to be passive aggressive about it not actually firing people, as that takes too much guts for Trump.
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Old 11th July 2019, 03:03 AM   #3364
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Seems to be armed force overthrew a few dictatoships...

But then I am not a pacifist.
Sure armies are quite useful for that, but you are talking a armed rabble not an organized army.
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Old 11th July 2019, 03:05 AM   #3365
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Or a few years before that, in 1775, there was "The Shot Heard Around The World" at Lexington...
Yea proxy fights between empires do result in government changes. Or are you just going to ignore all facts about how vital french involvement was to success, particularly in training and naval support. No french navy no victory at yorktown for one.
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Old 11th July 2019, 03:06 AM   #3366
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It doesnt preclude a deal, but any such deal wont be significantly different to Theresa May's deal that was rejected several times. A customs border in the Irish sea is just a permanent backstop.
That's true. It's still a better solution than the no deal Brexit though.


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A Norway-style deal is not possible, unless the Labour changes two of its red lines, it's opposition to the four freedoms and its insistence on having separate trade deals.
Of course not. I'm just saying that politicians who campaigned for a Norway-style Brexit should be arguing for a similar feather Brexit after the referendum, or else die a horrible death of anonymity.

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Old 11th July 2019, 03:43 AM   #3367
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think a lot of people in the EU are thinking "we are better off without those idiots across the Channel anyway".
Not really, as it undermines the whole concept of the 'European Union' when one of the major nations departs.
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Old 11th July 2019, 03:44 AM   #3368
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's true. It's still a better solution than the no deal Brexit though.




Of course not. I'm just saying that politicians who campaigned for a Norway-style Brexit should be arguing for a similar feather Brexit after the referendum, or else die a horrible death of anonymity.

McHrozni
The trouble is that a temporary backstop was enough to get May's deal rejected repeatedly. A permanent backstop is hardly going to have a greater likelihood of passing.

A soft Brexit was dead in the water once the two main parties adopted their respective red lines.
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Old 11th July 2019, 03:46 AM   #3369
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Not really, as it undermines the whole concept of the 'European Union' when one of the major nations departs.
I can see a flaw in your argument...

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Old 11th July 2019, 03:47 AM   #3370
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
… For the Conservatives, it depends on whether they can convince people who voted for the Brexit Party to return to the fold - I think they can as long as they keep talking tough on Brexit. Support for UKIP evaporated over night once the Leave result was known. I can envisage the same happening for the Brexit Party when Brexit happens, especially if it's a no-deal Brexit. In this case timing is everything. A General Election with Boris at the helm and making the right noises before 31 October or after a 31 October no-deal Brexit could see Brexit Party support collapse or evaporate. OTOH if the election is in a year's time and we're still shilly-shallying around then the Brexit Party may get close to the level of support they got in the European elections.
Yes, I had failed to see that the leadership battle is nothing to do with Brexit policy (there's nothing of consequence the candidates can change, both will permit No-Deal and the electors overwhelmingly want No-Deal) it's entirely about choosing a Tory leader who can take on Farage for the hearts and minds of the populist right. So Boris has it in the bag, unless he somehow manages to throw the bag into a canal. But as soon as Brexit is delivered, Farage is a busted flush. Look what the electors did to Churchill as soon as the war was over, and people liked him.

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Labour are still thrashing around to find a policy. The current dog's dinner doesn't appeal to Remainers (vote Labour for a Labour Brexit) or the small minority of Labour Leave supporters (vote Labour and we'll stop Brexit if we can). It's almost as if they're trying to ensure they are unelectable.
It took the unions' announcement of their policy toward Brexit and the fine difference between them and Corbyn to show me I'd missed something in Corbyn's latest weasel-worded pronouncement: He's not calling for a vote on the final Brexit decision per se. He said "the next prime minister", i.e. Boris, should hold a vote on their decision.

So he's campaigning for Remain and a final vote while the Tories are in power so he can't deliver Remain or a final vote but if you vote him into power you'll get his version of Brexit and no final say.

Last edited by Jack by the hedge; 11th July 2019 at 03:48 AM.
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Old 11th July 2019, 04:03 AM   #3371
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The trouble is that a temporary backstop was enough to get May's deal rejected repeatedly. A permanent backstop is hardly going to have a greater likelihood of passing.
Yea, but the customs border in the Irish sea allows for an independent trade policy and trade deals. That's why the first proposal was to have the backstop include just the NI, but DUP was against that and Theresa May needed them. Corbyn might not. EU already said they're fine with the backstop covering just the NI, it was their preffered option even.

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A soft Brexit was dead in the water once the two main parties adopted their respective red lines.
If there is a final say on the matter that's not necessarily a bad thing. The harder the proposed Brexit the more likely it is the electorate will go for Bremain instead. The referendum legislation should further stipulate the question not to be reopened for at least 10 years. By then I suspect Nigel and Aaron both will be in prison for corruption.

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Old 11th July 2019, 04:13 AM   #3372
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Let us assume that the snapshot of 52 48 was taken in a false light

And that the current snapshot would more than reverse that

And further that the benefits are at least 30 to 50 years out

And that the status quo removes all doubt

Let's go for a reset. It seems possible and probable, I bet it will happen because Corbyn wants that.
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Old 11th July 2019, 04:56 AM   #3373
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Let us assume that the snapshot of 52 48 was taken in a false light

And that the current snapshot would more than reverse that

And further that the benefits are at least 30 to 50 years out

And that the status quo removes all doubt

Let's go for a reset. It seems possible and probable, I bet it will happen because Corbyn wants that.
It was more like a perfect storm than a false light.

The background was decades of dripping tabloid poison, making "barmy Brussels" their punchbag for "health and safety gone mad" and "now the bureaucrats want to..." and "you couldn't make it up" stories (which often were essentially made up).

Bring that to a resentful simmer with the arrival of a very visible wave of Eastern European workers, initially Poles, which the government could have done more to slow but instead took the line that their hands were tied by Brussels.

Add a load of non-EU migrants encamped near Calais and trying to get to Britain. Turbocharge that with the Syrian refugee crisis and the fear of ISIS terrorist infiltrators among the foreigners clamouring to get here and murder us all in our beds. The voters didn't care that they weren't Europeans; they were coming here from France, and that's European, and Angela Merkel said we had to help them and she's European.

Then neutralise the left with a new Labour leader who was both ineffectual and so quietly anti-EU that his many fans didn't realise it, even when he rather pointedly disappeared rather than campaign for Remain, and the main pro-EU party, the Lib-Dems, still in disgrace in the political wilderness after betraying their principles for a sniff of power in coalition with the Tories.

Sprinkle that with years of Tory austerity policy as their reaction to the banking crisis, bring it to the boil and choose that moment, that perfect moment, to ask the nation "Are you all happy with the status quo or would you like to kick us in the balls?".
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Old 11th July 2019, 06:19 AM   #3374
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Or a few years before that, in 1775, there was "The Shot Heard Around The World" at Lexington...
Primacy of Parliament was established 100 years before that. The English colonies in North America were rebelling against a Democracy not a dictatorship.
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Old 11th July 2019, 07:50 AM   #3375
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Primacy of Parliament was established 100 years before that. The English colonies in North America were rebelling against a Democracy not a dictatorship.
And of course they didn't want representation in parliament as it would give them no power as a tiny minority.
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Old 11th July 2019, 10:54 PM   #3376
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Primacy of Parliament was established 100 years before that. The English colonies in North America were rebelling against a Democracy not a dictatorship.
They rebelled against an oligarchy with certain elements of democracy in place at any rate. UK in 1775 had much more in common with Russia or China of today than with UK of today.

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Old 12th July 2019, 05:59 AM   #3377
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
They rebelled against an oligarchy with certain elements of democracy in place at any rate. UK in 1775 had much more in common with Russia or China of today than with UK of today.
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Old 12th July 2019, 02:20 PM   #3378
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Foreign Direct Investment and Brexit

“6 Conclusions:
How much additional FDI does a country receive as a consequence of being a member of the EU? This is an obviously important question for which, surprisingly, one still finds very few answers. The objective of this note was to try to redress this gap. Does the use of modern econometric techniques wipe out the EU effect on FDI? We find it surely does not. EU membership robustly increases FDI inflows. Our three main estimates
range between 14% and 38% depending on the choice of econometric technique. The average of these is 28%, which implies that leaving the EU would reduce FDI inflows by around 22%. Our magnitudes are comparable with alternative methodologies. Whichever way the data are cut, Brexit is likely to have the effect of significantly lowering FDI coming to the UK.”

https://www.kenwitsconsultancy.co.uk...ce.pdf#page=50

So a guaranteed decline in wealth for all in the UK with Boris Johnson and the idiots backing him.
Also extreme pain for current expats, all future travelers, and business people.
Have I missed anything?
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Old 12th July 2019, 04:18 PM   #3379
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Foreign Direct Investment and Brexit

Have I missed anything?
Only that a majority voted for leaving and that the government and main opposition party promised that they would therefore leave.

If you continue to believe that economic forecasts (nearly always wrong) are more important than democracy, that's fine. There's at least one political party that has 'democrat' in its name that believes the same.
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Old 12th July 2019, 11:44 PM   #3380
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And if the majority of the people you were locked in a house with voted to set it on fire would you meekly accept that democratic decision, sit there quietly and burn, ceptimus? Or would you do everything you could to persuade them to change their minds before that decision was implemented?
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Old 12th July 2019, 11:59 PM   #3381
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Only that a majority voted for leaving and that the government and main opposition party promised that they would therefore leave.

If you continue to believe that economic forecasts (nearly always wrong) are more important than democracy, that's fine. There's at least one political party that has 'democrat' in its name that believes the same.
I believe that a vote that took place several years ago can be superseded by a vote today, based on up-to-date information. It's rather like having general elections every few years, rather than sticking with the result of one election forever. Because, over time, people may change their minds and demographics change, which changes what the 'majority' want.

The form of democracy that you seem to want - where the results of a vote are set in stone and cannot ever be changed - is stupid in the extreme.
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Old 13th July 2019, 01:11 AM   #3382
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Only that a majority voted for leaving and that the government and main opposition party promised that they would therefore leave.

If you continue to believe that economic forecasts (nearly always wrong) are more important than democracy, that's fine. There's at least one political party that has 'democrat' in its name that believes the same.
A majority of the electorate didn't vote to leave.
Vote leave promised free trade with the EU. If that promise is broken with a hard brexit you will not be delivering what many leave voters voted for and you will not have democracy.
If you disagree and think the majority want a hard brexit you can't object to another referendum on that point.
You know however it is not what people want and that is why you object to another vote. Put any definite alternative set of arrangements against remain and you lose comfortably.
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Old 13th July 2019, 04:38 AM   #3383
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Not really, as it undermines the whole concept of the 'European Union' when one of the major nations departs.
You mean when the millstone around the neck of European integration is finally dropped into the cesspit to sink alone?
Brexit will be a boon to those who favour tighter EU integration.
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Old 13th July 2019, 07:13 AM   #3384
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Yeah. I mean, would it really be so bad if UK were like Norway?
I remember someone relevant making that recommendation a few years back.

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For many Conservatives and their ilk it would be unacceptable.
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Old 13th July 2019, 07:28 AM   #3385
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Primacy of Parliament was established 100 years before that. The English colonies in North America were rebelling against a Democracy not a dictatorship.

What proportion of the GB population was enfranchised in 1776? Are you familiar with: ‘faggot’ voters, the 'forty shilling freeholder', Old Sarum, poll books, 'pocket' boroughs, the 'potwalloper qualification', the borough of Tregony, non-resident Freemen, Corporation boroughs et cetera?
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Old 13th July 2019, 07:29 AM   #3386
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
A not unreasonable comparison.
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Old 13th July 2019, 07:31 AM   #3387
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Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200 View Post
I believe that a vote that took place several years ago can be superseded by a vote today, based on up-to-date information. It's rather like having general elections every few years, rather than sticking with the result of one election forever. Because, over time, people may change their minds and demographics change, which changes what the 'majority' want.

The form of democracy that you seem to want - where the results of a vote are set in stone and cannot ever be changed - is stupid in the extreme.
Indeed.
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Old 13th July 2019, 08:54 AM   #3388
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Originally Posted by ThatGuy11200 View Post
I believe that a vote that took place several years ago can be superseded by a vote today
Believe what you like. When the vote took place it was known that it would take an absolute minimum of two years before the result could be implemented: remainers who don't know how to accept defeat have fought tooth and nail and managed to extend that period by an extra year.

During the three year period we've had another election where the two parties that did best again promised that they would implement the result of the referendum.

When politicians promise to do something, it's the electorate's responsibility to hold those politicians' feet to the fire and make sure they deliver on their promise. Incompetent dithering and delay by those politicians is no excuse for them ultimately to do the exact opposite of what they promised, no matter how much losing remainers would like it to be so.

Last edited by ceptimus; 13th July 2019 at 09:03 AM.
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Old 13th July 2019, 09:15 AM   #3389
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Believe what you like. When the vote took place it was known that it would take an absolute minimum of two years before the result could be implemented: remainers who don't know how to accept defeat have fought tooth and nail and managed to extend that period by an extra year.
Those wanting to leave have also been part of the delay, by failing to agree on a plan to leave.

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During the three year period we've had another election where the two parties that did best again promised that they would implement the result of the referendum.
Politicians often promise what cannot be delivered and complete U turns.

Quote:
When politicians promise to do something, it's the electorate's responsibility to hold those politicians' feet to the fire and make sure they deliver on their promise. Incompetent dithering and delay by those politicians is no excuse for them ultimately to do the exact opposite of what they promised, no matter how much losing remainers would like it to be so.
If the vote had been the other way, the leave campaign would have continued, strengthened by only losing by a small margin.

It is not incompetence and dithering that has caused the delay, it is an inability to reach an agreement over a very complex issue that the entire country is very divided over. Parliament is merely reflecting the people.
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Old 13th July 2019, 09:32 AM   #3390
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Those wanting to leave have also been part of the delay, by failing to agree on a plan to leave.

Exactly. Any Brexit plan, whether hard or saoft, is immediately pounced on by other Brexiteers saying that isn't what they voted for.
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Old 13th July 2019, 09:49 AM   #3391
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This delusion that it's Remainers who have delayed Brexit rather than Brexiteers is yet another example of how easily fooled Leave supporters are.
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Old 13th July 2019, 09:53 AM   #3392
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Exactly. Any Brexit plan, whether hard or saoft, is immediately pounced on by other Brexiteers saying that isn't what they voted for.
The root of the problem is Farage, Johnson, Gove, Rees Mogg etc avoided coming up with a plan. They are not detailed plan people. They like broad brushes and big policy and pronouncements. They are big personalities who want to lead.

Then, when it came to detail time, it all fell apart because the details really matter, they are super complex and those driving the change, Farage, Johnson etc cannot cope.

Historians will look back on this and they will identify the lack of a plan from those who wanted to leave as the cause of all the problems.
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:15 AM   #3393
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
This delusion that it's Remainers who have delayed Brexit rather than Brexiteers is yet another example of how easily fooled Leave supporters are.
Do you really believe that if remainer MPs had accepted the result (and their party manifestos in most cases) and voted in favour of leaving (or merely abstained) that we wouldn't have left already?
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:16 AM   #3394
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
This delusion that it's Remainers who have delayed Brexit rather than Brexiteers is yet another example of how easily fooled Leave supporters are.
The Dumb, the Desperate and the Deplorable.
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:20 AM   #3395
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
The root of the problem is Farage, Johnson, Gove, Rees Mogg etc avoided coming up with a plan.
They came up with a plan. The plan was to continue trading with the EU on the best available terms, while not allowing the EU any control over our money, laws, and borders.

Remainers frustrated the plan by offering the EU the hope that they might be able to reverse the result of the referendum, or at least water it down the point where it had no real effect. That's why we're in the current mess. It's the height of hypocrisy by remain MPs to then attempt to blame the mess on leave MPs.
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:29 AM   #3396
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
They came up with a plan. The plan was to continue trading with the EU on the best available terms, while not allowing the EU any control over our money, laws, and borders.

Remainers frustrated the plan by offering the EU the hope that they might be able to reverse the result of the referendum, or at least water it down the point where it had no real effect. That's why we're in the current mess. It's the height of hypocrisy by remain MPs to then attempt to blame the mess on leave MPs.
That sounds like a great plan, but it needs a few details. For example how does it affect the Good Friday Agreement? Maybe remaining in the Customs Union would allow that. After all it was what the probably next PM was promising.

ETA: I have a plan to become rich. It just needs one hundred thousand people to each give me ten pounds. I haven't worked out the detail how to persuade them, but that's just details.
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link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:29 AM   #3397
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
They came up with a plan. The plan was to continue trading with the EU on the best available terms, while not allowing the EU any control over our money, laws, and borders.

Remainers frustrated the plan by offering the EU the hope that they might be able to reverse the result of the referendum, or at least water it down the point where it had no real effect. That's why we're in the current mess. It's the height of hypocrisy by remain MPs to then attempt to blame the mess on leave MPs.
That was the idea, it was not planned in any detail and it had numerous flaws, number one of which was making exaggerated/false claims regarding the limited influence the EU had on our money, laws and borders.

What they avoided doing, because they could not, was to come up with a properly researched plan that really could work.

They were like someone who has a idea for a business, who goes to the Dragons Den and it is clear they have not really thought it through at all. The Dragons see sense and refuse to invest. Unfortunately, there were not enough Dragons when it came to the referendum.
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:43 AM   #3398
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
They came up with a plan. The plan was to continue trading with the EU on the best available terms, while not allowing the EU any control over our money, laws, and borders.

Knowing of course that this would be unacceptable to the EU as it would be to anyone else. The UK wanted it's own selfish, greedy, way and didn't get it.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Remainers frustrated the plan by offering the EU the hope that they might be able to reverse the result of the referendum, or at least water it down the point where it had no real effect.
Rubbish.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
That's why we're in the current mess. It's the height of hypocrisy by remain MPs to then attempt to blame the mess on leave MPs.
No. The current mess is because a political idiot called a referendum to sate the racist elements in the UK populace, who's support he wanted. Then he, and his party, failed to deliver on their ludicrous promises because reality intervened.
The EU stood up to the Brits' and their self-entitled whining.
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Old 13th July 2019, 10:45 AM   #3399
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
That sounds like a great plan, but it needs a few details. For example how does it affect the Good Friday Agreement? Maybe remaining in the Customs Union would allow that. After all it was what the probably next PM was promising.
That'd require thinking. Brexiteers seem utterly unable to manage that, or anything more intellectually challenging than whining "Brexit means Brexit".

Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
ETA: I have a plan to become rich. It just needs one hundred thousand people to each give me ten pounds. I haven't worked out the detail how to persuade them, but that's just details.
Get a list of UKIP/Brexit/Conservative party members and canvass them for donations to deport brown people. That should do it.
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Old 13th July 2019, 11:11 AM   #3400
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
They came up with a plan. The plan was to continue trading with the EU on the best available terms, while not allowing the EU any control over our money, laws, and borders.

Remainers frustrated the plan by offering the EU the hope that they might be able to reverse the result of the referendum, or at least water it down the point where it had no real effect. That's why we're in the current mess. It's the height of hypocrisy by remain MPs to then attempt to blame the mess on leave MPs.
None so blind...
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