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Old 27th June 2019, 05:04 PM   #201
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
How is Boris going to "ensure that we leave"?

He is extremely unlikely to get any better deal from the EU (or even any different deal at all). And all previous votes in the HoC say he will not be able to get MP's to vote for a "No Deal" exit either ....

... so how on earth is he going to "ensure we do leave"?

So far, all the evidence is that Boris will NOT be able to get the UK to leave.

We've seen Boris in several interviews now (I just posted one above, with Laura Kuenssberg from the BBC), and he was 100% totally incapable of explaining any plan at all of how he was going to get the EU to make any more concessions …. his “plan” is apparently (according to Boris himself) to just bluff his way through and hope that his non-existent "charm" as an amiable buffoon persuades the EU to do what they have consistently insisted they will not do, and where they already showed they will not do it when Mrs May tried to re-negociate for a better deal.


Well, stranger things have happened in politics, and some catrastrophic worldwide event may change everything for everyone. But on the face of things it's cloud cuckoo land to think that Boris will achieve anything better at all from either the EU or from a vote amongst MPs in the HoC.
...And in the meantime, Parliament goes on a one-month summer recess, leaving BoJo about oh, six or seven weeks to renegotiate before Halloween.

So suddenly the governemt will concentrate on Brexit instead of silly leadership elections.
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Old 27th June 2019, 05:13 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
But it isn't like their votes are binding on anything anyway, what would a vote to refuse to leave with no deal actually do? How will parliament negotiate with the Eu when I thought that when through the PM?

So they get a vote, what would they be voting for that would be binding on Boris that would prevent this?
The Lords has already rushed through a statutory instrument that bars a 'no-deal'.

The government doesn't have a majority, with the DUP refusing to move on the Irish border issue and intra-party conflict.
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Old 27th June 2019, 06:14 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
Also, whilst I'm bing unkind/unfair to Boris - I don't know how many people have checked his actual name, but its rather showy/flamboyant in parts, i.e. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson .
Thanks. I was a bit curious about his name. Isn't Boris a Russian name?

In America we had these famous cartoon Russian villains named Boris and Natasha.
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Old 27th June 2019, 06:29 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
Isn't one of the things she yelled "Get off me"? That would tend to make me think he was the aggressor rather than her, but I wasn't there.
Perhaps. I haven't actually listened to whatever was recorded. My original point though was just that everyone assumed a lot of things about it based on gender stereotypes.
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Old 27th June 2019, 08:02 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
What the Actual **** is that??!!
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Old 27th June 2019, 08:29 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
What the Actual **** is that??!!
It's a bird! It's a plane! It's Brexitman!!!

ETA: actual answer:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...zip-wire-video

Quote:
The mayor of London, Boris Johnson, dangles 20ft in the air after getting stuck on a zip-wire while celebrating Team GB’s first Olympic gold. Johnson is left hanging for several minutes as he loses momentum and gets stuck over a crowd of people in Victoria Park, east London. As onlookers snap photos on their mobile phones, he jokes: ‘This is great fun - but it needs to go faster’
(from 2012)
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Old 27th June 2019, 11:50 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
In short – I don't think any political analyst (nor any legal anayst following the above) think it's a realistic opposition for Boris to attempt to force a No Deal exit by running down the clock so as to exclude MPs in the HoC from any vote on the issue.
I suppose it comes down to, when push comes to shove, will MPs approve Theresa May's deal (or something functionally identical to it in a floppy hat, fake moustache and glasses), vote for an alternative positive course of action (if they are allowed to even bring the vote), or support a no-confidence vote to prevent Brexit ?

There's a lot of talk about Tory rebels willing to vote against the government in a no-confidence vote to prevent a no-deal but IMO it's just that. When the three line whip is presented and the MPs actually have to put country before party (and career) I think the numbers will be vanishingly small and largely or wholly offset by no-deal Labour MPs voting in favour of the government.

It is possible that Boris or Jeremy Hunt will announce that they have managed to get EU concessions on Theresa May's deal and force it through. The concessions will be illusory and will amount to them claiming that the backstop is no more - it will be a lie. This is however a possible course of action, especially if Jeremy Corbyn decides that this should be the Labour way of breaking the deadlock.

MPs have had umpteen chances to find another way forward and have bottled it every time - I'm not sure what's so different this time.

I still think no-deal is the most likely outcome - but only because it is the default.
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Old 28th June 2019, 01:07 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
But it isn't like their votes are binding on anything anyway, what would a vote to refuse to leave with no deal actually do? How will parliament negotiate with the Eu when I thought that when through the PM?

So they get a vote, what would they be voting for that would be binding on Boris that would prevent this?

Well certain types of votes are not binding upon the PM, and other sorts of votes are binding. It depends what sort of votes you are thinking of. But afaik (a) the Speaker's decision is binding (and he won't allow the new PM to use any of those methods to prevent parliament voting on either a deal or a no deal exit from the EU, and (b) the LSE legal link above explains why the PM (eg Boris) could not force it through by simply doing nothing and letting the October deadline expire.

So, bottom line - Boris would be insane to try it, and if he did try it then it would be (should be) blocked either by the Speaker or by legal action in the courts.


Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
Understood, and the bookies' odds of it are around 3/1 (25%)

I disagree and think it is significantly more likely than that too.


Then these bookies could not have been looking at the rules of parliament or looking at the law of the country. Because according to all rules of parliamentary UK democracy, and according to UK law, Boris/anyone would almost certainly not be able to exit Europe by any such artifice as attempting to exclude all elected MP of the HoC from deciding the matter … that is simply illegal for any PM to do.

Odds of 3:1 might be a reasonable guess on whether or not Boris would actually try any of those tactics to force us to leave by default on Oct 31st. He might try it, but the odds of him actually succeeding will be vastly less than that (though it still might succeed if opposition MP's failed to take up the precisely correct sorts of parliamentary and legal procedures in time … but they are all receiving constant expert legal and constitutional advice on that, so it seems unlikely they would make a major blunder like that).

We should also recall that Mrs May did try quite a bit of that sort of artifice and slight-of-hand with parliament herself. She tried to run down the clock on many of the crucial votes, so that she disrupted the opposition attempts to counter what she was doing. And she did cause a lot of problems doing that. But in the end she was not able to succeed with that tactic.

Last edited by IanS; 28th June 2019 at 01:10 AM.
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Old 28th June 2019, 01:23 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
Then these bookies could not have been looking at the rules of parliament or looking at the law of the country.
Ah, the common misconception about how bookmakers operate.....

The bookies don't have to look at anything, they don't have to have an opinion at all. They merely reflect which way punters' money is flowing.

If more money comes in for a "no deal" then they will shorten the odds for that outcome (and possibly lay off some of the bets on external exchanges to manage their risk). If more money is coming in for other outcomes then they will lengthen the odds for "no deal" to attract bets for that outcome in an effort to balance their book.

Aside from the initial market making, the bookmakers are not expressing any kind of opinion, merely reflecting the way in which bets are being placed.
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Old 28th June 2019, 01:31 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
Then these bookies could not have been looking at the rules of parliament or looking at the law of the country.
Of course they are not. They are making a financial market in prediction, and the price it trades at reflects the expectation of the marginal agent.
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Old 28th June 2019, 04:33 AM   #211
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
£350 fine appears par for a chucking milkshakes. I'll chip in £100.
Damn! I didn't see this until this morning so I refrained from milkshaking Farage last night, though I did see him getting out of his chauffeur-driven Range Rover and putting on a school blazer, which looked ridiculous. If I'd known my costs would be at least partly covered - well, it probably wouldn't have made much difference actually. I'm a bit of a coward. But it might have!
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Old 28th June 2019, 04:35 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Perhaps. I haven't actually listened to whatever was recorded. My original point though was just that everyone assumed a lot of things about it based on gender stereotypes.
Maybe people didn't assume, they just read what she supposedly said ("Get off me!") and went from there?
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Old 28th June 2019, 09:58 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Ah, the common misconception about how bookmakers operate.....

The bookies don't have to look at anything, they don't have to have an opinion at all. They merely reflect which way punters' money is flowing.

If more money comes in for a "no deal" then they will shorten the odds for that outcome (and possibly lay off some of the bets on external exchanges to manage their risk). If more money is coming in for other outcomes then they will lengthen the odds for "no deal" to attract bets for that outcome in an effort to balance their book.

Aside from the initial market making, the bookmakers are not expressing any kind of opinion, merely reflecting the way in which bets are being placed.
Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
Of course they are not. They are making a financial market in prediction, and the price it trades at reflects the expectation of the marginal agent.

Well then it's just the betting public who are unaware of how very unlikely Boris/anyone would be to succeed in trying a move like that! So, what is the difference? How does that make it a 1 in 3 chance that Boris could simply stop any votes and leave on the 31st of October? (and by the way it was not me who offered bookmakers odds as the correct way to determine if PM Boris could simply leave the EU if he wanted to).

Last edited by IanS; 28th June 2019 at 10:01 AM.
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Old 28th June 2019, 10:03 AM   #214
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I agree, the betting public is under-pricing the risk of no deal exit on 31/10!

Last edited by Francesca R; 28th June 2019 at 10:16 AM.
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Old 28th June 2019, 11:45 AM   #215
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
What the Actual **** is that??!!

It's a pinãta, honest, grab a stick...
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Old 28th June 2019, 11:46 AM   #216
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
He went to Eton on a full scholarship so isn't that posh.
Wikipedia says he was a King's Scholar (based on academic merit) so I would say that makes him even posher. The reduced fees would not be necessarily have anything to with financial hardship (and in any case having or not money does not necessarily equate to poshness) but as a scholar he would be helping to enhance Eton's academic reputation. Also he went to a prep school, rather than say a state primary school.
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Old 28th June 2019, 12:48 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Simply won't happen. Next time around, the EU citizens will get to cast their votes.
Oh good grief.
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Old 28th June 2019, 12:51 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by toto View Post
Wikipedia says he was a King's Scholar (based on academic merit) so I would say that makes him even posher. The reduced fees would not be necessarily have anything to with financial hardship (and in any case having or not money does not necessarily equate to poshness) but as a scholar he would be helping to enhance Eton's academic reputation. Also he went to a prep school, rather than say a state primary school.
Academic ability at Eton?

What's that? the ability to walk and whistle at the same time?
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Old 28th June 2019, 04:00 PM   #219
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Academic ability at Eton?

What's that?
Knowing which fork to use for the custard tart.
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Old 28th June 2019, 04:05 PM   #220
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Originally Posted by toto View Post
Wikipedia says he was a King's Scholar (based on academic merit) so I would say that makes him even posher. The reduced fees would not be necessarily have anything to with financial hardship (and in any case having or not money does not necessarily equate to poshness) but as a scholar he would be helping to enhance Eton's academic reputation. Also he went to a prep school, rather than say a state primary school.
Next to the likes of the rather dim Prince Harry, Boris would come across as a genius.
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Old 28th June 2019, 04:15 PM   #221
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Harry doesn't want to be PM though.
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Old 28th June 2019, 06:33 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Next to the likes of the rather dim Prince Harry, Boris would come across as a genius.
I am sure you will agree that Prince Harry is not representative of the average Eton pupil. My understanding is that Eton is quite competitive to get into (leaving aside the rights and wrongs of exclusive education). Johnson is clever: he might be lazy and unsuited to the job of Prime Minister, and he is not a genius. But he was clever enough to win a scholarship and he is posh , though probably not as posh as Rees Mogg.
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Old 29th June 2019, 06:54 AM   #223
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Originally Posted by toto View Post
I am sure you will agree that Prince Harry is not representative of the average Eton pupil. My understanding is that Eton is quite competitive to get into (leaving aside the rights and wrongs of exclusive education). Johnson is clever: he might be lazy and unsuited to the job of Prime Minister, and he is not a genius. But he was clever enough to win a scholarship and he is posh , though probably not as posh as Rees Mogg.
Rees-Mogg comes across as a quasi-twit. With him, it's just a carefully cultivated image.

I was Middlesex-educated and it was always assumed Harrow was the par exemplor that my grammar school emulated in terms of building design (fancy cloisters, court yard and extensive playing fields), curriculum and accent.

People like Rees-Mogg are Lord Snooty caricatures from the Beano and would have been seriously mocked at my school.
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Old 29th June 2019, 09:03 AM   #224
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
I was Middlesex-educated and it was always assumed Harrow was the par exemplor that my grammar school emulated in terms of building design (fancy cloisters, court yard and extensive playing fields), curriculum and accent.
So was I for a few years (LB of Harrow anyway). Nobody in the state sector in my experience ever mentioned the school up the hill.

But age 14-17 I moved to a school in Baker Street (so took the Met line), it was the only school I ever attended that I liked. It was all girls they didn't mention Harrow School much either

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Old 29th June 2019, 09:47 AM   #225
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"Sup up your beer and collect your fags
There's a row going on down near slough "
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Old 29th June 2019, 09:47 AM   #226
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Boris now singing President Trump's praises to the rafters - well that's a change of tune.

Birds of a feather and all that
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Old 29th June 2019, 10:28 AM   #227
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Rees-Mogg comes across as a quasi-twit. With him, it's just a carefully cultivated image.

I was Middlesex-educated and it was always assumed Harrow was the par exemplor that my grammar school emulated in terms of building design (fancy cloisters, court yard and extensive playing fields), curriculum and accent.

People like Rees-Mogg are Lord Snooty caricatures from the Beano and would have been seriously mocked at my school.
I do not want to appear to defend Rees-Mogg, but I do not think he is a twit at all, although I concede you are saying he comes across as one, which is not quite the same thing. He might cultivate his image but it is not just that , he was probably very much influenced by his father, a former editor of The Times, and who was himself had old fashioned tastes. There is no denying his privileged upbringing.
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Old 29th June 2019, 11:50 AM   #228
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
So was I for a few years (LB of Harrow anyway). Nobody in the state sector in my experience ever mentioned the school up the hill.

But age 14-17 I moved to a school in Baker Street (so took the Met line), it was the only school I ever attended that I liked. It was all girls they didn't mention Harrow School much either
If you attended Orange Hill, we might have played you at hockey.
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Old 29th June 2019, 11:57 AM   #229
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That's Barnet I think.

Anyway no, somewhere much more "common people". Hockey wasn't a thing.

(It was at the Regents Park joint)
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Old 30th June 2019, 01:52 AM   #230
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Boris interview on Sky News, asked about his spending plans and plans to cut taxes.
Boris Johnson responds "as the great Tunisian scholar and sage Ibn Khaldun pointed out as early as the 14th century, there are plenty of taxes that you can cut which will actually increase your revenues"

This is his usual tactic of referencing a historical figure that he thinks the audience don't know anything about to avoid scrutiny and appear intelligent, while actually giving zero insight into either the historical event or the modern parallel he's trying to make.

Ibn Khaldun was talking about monarchs and how it is best for them to pile taxation on to the start of their reign to allow for their reduction later to make the ruler appear benevolent.
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Old 30th June 2019, 06:01 AM   #231
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Boris interview on Sky News, asked about his spending plans and plans to cut taxes.
Boris Johnson responds "as the great Tunisian scholar and sage Ibn Khaldun pointed out as early as the 14th century, there are plenty of taxes that you can cut which will actually increase your revenues"

This is his usual tactic of referencing a historical figure that he thinks the audience don't know anything about to avoid scrutiny and appear intelligent, while actually giving zero insight into either the historical event or the modern parallel he's trying to make.

Ibn Khaldun was talking about monarchs and how it is best for them to pile taxation on to the start of their reign to allow for their reduction later to make the ruler appear benevolent.
When the interviewer asked whether he intended to increase borrowing he ducked and he dived. After asking him for about the third or fourth time, he came out with some tosh about how it's good to borrow when interest rates were low
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Old 30th June 2019, 01:06 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Boris interview on Sky News, asked about his spending plans and plans to cut taxes.
Boris Johnson responds "as the great Tunisian scholar and sage Ibn Khaldun pointed out as early as the 14th century, there are plenty of taxes that you can cut which will actually increase your revenues"

This is his usual tactic of referencing a historical figure that he thinks the audience don't know anything about to avoid scrutiny and appear intelligent, while actually giving zero insight into either the historical event or the modern parallel he's trying to make.

Ibn Khaldun was talking about monarchs and how it is best for them to pile taxation on to the start of their reign to allow for their reduction later to make the ruler appear benevolent.

Given that the great criticism of Corbyn is that he's stuck in the thinking of the 1970's it's ******* hilarious that he's faced by Rees-Mogg who rafely looks past the 1870s and now Boris is looking to C14!
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Old 30th June 2019, 11:39 PM   #233
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Given that the great criticism of Corbyn is that he's stuck in the thinking of the 1970's it's ******* hilarious that he's faced by Rees-Mogg who rafely looks past the 1870s and now Boris is looking to C14!
Given the reviews of his book it would seem Rees-Mogg rarely looks past his imaginations of the 1870s!
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Old 30th June 2019, 11:56 PM   #234
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I don't know about that. I think he rarely looks past the 1870s!!!!
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Old 1st July 2019, 01:34 PM   #235
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Given the reviews of his book it would seem Rees-Mogg rarely looks past his imaginations of the 1870s!
Well, I didn't want to comment too much on the contents of his book seeing as how I haven't read it and neither has anyone else!

How ironic that the arch leaver is heading for remainder..
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Old 2nd July 2019, 03:00 AM   #236
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The Lords has already rushed through a statutory instrument that bars a 'no-deal'.
And what, precisely, is the legal effect of that?

In order to prevent a 'no-deal' exit, my understanding is that Article 50 needs to be revoked; i.e. action needs to be taken to prevent it happening.
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Old 2nd July 2019, 06:49 AM   #237
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
In order to prevent a 'no-deal' exit, my understanding is that Article 50 needs to be revoked; i.e. action needs to be taken to prevent it happening.
. . . . Or a deal or an extension
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Old 2nd July 2019, 07:35 AM   #238
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Originally Posted by Francesca R View Post
. . . . Or a deal or an extension
An extension doesn't prevent a no-deal, it just delays it. If an extension is granted, unless a deal is made, Article 50 is revoked or yet another extension is granted (in which case rinse and repeat), a no-deal will happen at the end of the extension period.
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Old 2nd July 2019, 09:11 AM   #239
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The Lords has already rushed through a statutory instrument that bars a 'no-deal'.

The government doesn't have a majority, with the DUP refusing to move on the Irish border issue and intra-party conflict.
How does any of that result in a vote that actually forces the government to accept mays deal or revoke article 50?
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Old 2nd July 2019, 11:38 AM   #240
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
How does any of that result in a vote that actually forces the government to accept mays deal or revoke article 50?
ISTM the only way out of the entire impasse is a General Election.

In the meantime we have to tolerate the Tory Party piddling about with a leadership election, not due to end until 25 July 2019.

Gimme a break!
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