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Old 3rd July 2019, 12:32 AM   #241
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I doubt a General Election will solve a great deal, based on current polling.
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Old 3rd July 2019, 12:51 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
I doubt a General Election will solve a great deal, based on current polling.
IMO it depends on whether the people who voted for the Brexit Party in the European elections return to the Conservative Party in a General Election. This in turn is dependent on how much of that vote was a protest vote (both against the EU and to remind the Conservative Party of the level of support for a no-deal Brexit) and/or whether the new Conservative Party leader can convince Brexit Party voters to vote Conservative because they will deliver a no-deal Brexit.

If the Conservative Party vote holds up (and IMO it might very well, especially with Boris Johnson's brand recognition) there is a risk that the Remain vote splits between Labour and LibDem and the Conservatives end up with a big majority (from 35% of the popular vote but that's FPTP for you) and a clear mandate (from that 35% of the 60% that bothered to vote, so 20% of the electorate) to deliver a no-deal Brexit
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Old 3rd July 2019, 02:40 AM   #243
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Johnson & Hunt had a husting in Northern Ireland yesterday, and two things sprung to mind.

One was Hunt talking about what young people want and how to help the young, which made me wonder if he had had a look at the demographics of the Tory party, ie the people who are going to be doing the actual voting, recently.

The other was Johnson managing an almighty dodge on the gridlock affecting Stormont. When asked if he was aware of the cause of the gridlock, he managed to reply that 'People know what it is', to which I more or less begged for a follow-up question to be 'Yes, we know, do you?'.
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Old 3rd July 2019, 05:54 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
ISTM the only way out of the entire impasse is a General Election.
But would it help? I don't see any party likely to win the government going to be realistic about what the options are. If labor had a decent leader sure that might work, but Boris or Jeremy? Not the people to make tough not terribly popular decisions.
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Old 3rd July 2019, 03:49 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
IMO it depends on whether the people who voted for the Brexit Party in the European elections return to the Conservative Party in a General Election. This in turn is dependent on how much of that vote was a protest vote (both against the EU and to remind the Conservative Party of the level of support for a no-deal Brexit) and/or whether the new Conservative Party leader can convince Brexit Party voters to vote Conservative because they will deliver a no-deal Brexit.

If the Conservative Party vote holds up (and IMO it might very well, especially with Boris Johnson's brand recognition) there is a risk that the Remain vote splits between Labour and LibDem and the Conservatives end up with a big majority (from 35% of the popular vote but that's FPTP for you) and a clear mandate (from that 35% of the 60% that bothered to vote, so 20% of the electorate) to deliver a no-deal Brexit
Seems logical up to a point. However, I am sceptical that there is a majority conservative electorate, or even of leavers, that they would vote in a 'no deal' candidate at the end of the day.

The problem with Farage's brand of populism is that it soon loses its novelty value. Look at the fate of the NF, BNP and then UKIP.
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Old 3rd July 2019, 03:57 PM   #246
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
But would it help? I don't see any party likely to win the government going to be realistic about what the options are. If labor had a decent leader sure that might work, but Boris or Jeremy? Not the people to make tough not terribly popular decisions.
Jeremy is all right. The problem is the right wing press (non British domicled in the case of the SUN and DAILY MAIL) when they urged everybdoy via its >10m readership banner headlines not to vote Labour (Kinnock) and then more recently to vote 'Leave'.

Never underestimate the power of the press. The DM thought itself so powerful it labelled the three judges in the Gina Miller case as traitors for ruling that Brexit has to be decided via Parliament.

Imagine that, the DM having the chutzpah to think itself more establishment than the establishment.

So, when you read all the stories about how Corbyn met with the IRA and Hamas er, forty years or more ago, ask yourself is it really true Corbyn is a scurrilous Marxist or is he just a run of the mill parliamentarian who sits down to meet with all sorts of odious people as a part of peace process diplomacy. Heck, look who the Queen has sat down with, or even Mrs May when she goes to meet the Saudis.
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Old 3rd July 2019, 04:26 PM   #247
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
ISTM the only way out of the entire impasse is a General Election.

In the meantime we have to tolerate the Tory Party piddling about with a leadership election, not due to end until 25 July 2019.

Gimme a break!
Huh? There can’t be a general election unless there is a vote of no confidence. If the UK Parliament does nothing until 31st October then the default is the UK leaves the EU with no deal. I don’t see how the Lords has any power to prevent that or to force the Commons to do anything either.
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Old 3rd July 2019, 04:29 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Jeremy is all right. The problem is the right wing press (non British domicled in the case of the SUN and DAILY MAIL) when they urged everybdoy via its >10m readership banner headlines not to vote Labour (Kinnock) and then more recently to vote 'Leave'.

Never underestimate the power of the press. The DM thought itself so powerful it labelled the three judges in the Gina Miller case as traitors for ruling that Brexit has to be decided via Parliament.

Imagine that, the DM having the chutzpah to think itself more establishment than the establishment.

So, when you read all the stories about how Corbyn met with the IRA and Hamas er, forty years or more ago, ask yourself is it really true Corbyn is a scurrilous Marxist or is he just a run of the mill parliamentarian who sits down to meet with all sorts of odious people as a part of peace process diplomacy. Heck, look who the Queen has sat down with, or even Mrs May when she goes to meet the Saudis.
The Daily Mail is a right-wing rag, it is true, but they are right about Corbyn.
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Old 3rd July 2019, 11:14 PM   #249
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It seems that Jeremy Hunt is planning to address the real issues that a post-Brexit Britain will be facing by proposing to allow MPs a free vote on whether to reintroduce fox hunting with dogs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48864019

They're also doing the usual thing for the party of fiscal responsibility, promising to increase spending whilst at the same time reducing taxes. To enhance his credentials with the Conservative membership, Boris Johnson is proposing to bring back stop and search - a policy that was abandoned because it was implemented in a way which was provably racist.

Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose
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Old 4th July 2019, 03:21 AM   #250
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I saw that and Boris has promised to recruit 20,000 more police over three years and look at taxes on suger, fat alcohol etc.
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Old 4th July 2019, 04:01 AM   #251
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
I saw that and Boris has promised to recruit 20,000 more police over three years and look at taxes on suger, fat alcohol etc.
Perhaps bull-**** is a excellent fertiliser for magic money trees ?
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Old 4th July 2019, 04:26 AM   #252
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I think that he thinks if he says he will let the plebs have their burgers, kebabs and tizer cheap they will vote for him in an election.
Because we all know the 'lower orders' eat nothing but junk fatty food and drink soda.
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Old 4th July 2019, 04:28 AM   #253
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And then there's the several billions they've been told are needed to sort out social care, and stop it being an absolute under-funded shambles.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48855645

Yep, like that's going to happen if we end up leaving...
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Old 4th July 2019, 05:01 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
And then there's the several billions they've been told are needed to sort out social care, and stop it being an absolute under-funded shambles.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48855645



Yep, like that's going to happen if we end up leaving...
Hey the green paper has only been sat on the desk of the minister since October last year, they'll get around to it when they haven't got the urgent emergency stuff to push through, I.e. making Johnson the PM.
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Old 4th July 2019, 06:07 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
I saw that and Boris has promised to recruit 20,000 more police over three years and look at taxes on suger, fat alcohol etc.
Perhaps he shouldn't have backed government cuts to police of over 20,000 since 2010.
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Old 4th July 2019, 02:34 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It seems that Jeremy Hunt is planning to address the real issues that a post-Brexit Britain will be facing by proposing to allow MPs a free vote on whether to reintroduce fox hunting with dogs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48864019

They're also doing the usual thing for the party of fiscal responsibility, promising to increase spending whilst at the same time reducing taxes. To enhance his credentials with the Conservative membership, Boris Johnson is proposing to bring back stop and search - a policy that was abandoned because it was implemented in a way which was provably racist.

Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose

Hunt by name, Hunt by nature. Completely out of touch with reality.
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Old 5th July 2019, 01:08 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Hunt by name, Hunt by nature.
That's within one letter of what I was thinking.

Dave
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Old 5th July 2019, 01:33 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
That's within one letter of what I was thinking.

Dave
You think he's a hunk ?

Coming out as a Conservative - very brave !
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Old 5th July 2019, 03:12 AM   #259
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Downing Street attempted to withhold sensitive intelligence from Boris Johnson when he became foreign secretary, the BBC has learned.

Pressed about the issue at a Conservative leadership hustings in Darlington, Mr Johnson said he would not comment further on national security issues.

A Number 10 spokesperson said it did not comment on intelligence matters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48874147
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Old 5th July 2019, 03:52 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Downing Street attempted to withhold sensitive intelligence from Boris Johnson when he became foreign secretary, the BBC has learned.

Pressed about the issue at a Conservative leadership hustings in Darlington, Mr Johnson said he would not comment further on national security issues.

A Number 10 spokesperson said it did not comment on intelligence matters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48874147
But it wasn't because he is a buffoon who couldn't be trusted with secrets but because Theresa May is a grudge-bearing control freak

Quote:
It's said that he worried constantly about being cut out. But, this is not just about the keeping of secrets, but Theresa May's desire to keep political control.

It's suggested that the real issue was a lack of trust and hostility between Mr Johnson and Theresa May. One source believes Mr Johnson was excluded from seeing some sensitive information because there was a hostile relationship between him and Downing Street, not because of reservations from the intelligence services.
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Old 5th July 2019, 04:26 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
That's within one letter of what I was thinking.

Dave
I had a boss called 'Hunt' and he quite proudly used to call himself by the 'c' word.
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Old 5th July 2019, 04:29 AM   #262
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Apparently BJ was appointed foreign secretary in error anyway.

T May had been jotting down cabinet ideas on a notepad and wrote "Boris Johnson --> F. Off", and it got misinterpreted.

#OldJoke
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Old 6th July 2019, 05:10 AM   #263
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By the way, here is another interesting development (for those outside the UK who may not see these things so easily) - the former head of MI6 is now saying in barely concealed terms, that Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM because he's intellectually incapable of, or emotionally incapable of, making safe decisions with vital state security/intelligence material.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48892102
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Old 6th July 2019, 05:14 AM   #264
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
By the way, here is another interesting development (for those outside the UK who may not see these things so easily) - the former head of MI6 is now saying in barely concealed terms, that Boris Johnson is unfit to be PM because he's intellectually incapable of, or emotionally incapable of, making safe decisions with vital state security/intelligence material.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48892102
If only this was shocking, or even mildly surprising news
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Old 6th July 2019, 05:56 AM   #265
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
I saw that and Boris has promised to recruit 20,000 more police over three years and look at taxes on suger, fat alcohol etc.
Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
I think that he thinks if he says he will let the plebs have their burgers, kebabs and tizer cheap they will vote for him in an election.
Because we all know the 'lower orders' eat nothing but junk fatty food and drink soda.

No, I just think that when he says he’s opposed to “sin taxes”, he’s worried about something like this:
Quote:
Politician: Bravo, Madge. Well done. Taxation is indeed the very nub of my gist. Gentlemen, we have to find something new to tax.
Second Official: I understood that.
Third Official: If I might put my head on the chopping block so you can kick it around a bit, sir...
Politician: Yes?
Third Official: Well most things we do for pleasure nowadays are taxed, except one.
Politician: What do you mean?
Third Official: Well, er, smoking's been taxed, drinking's been taxed but not ... thingy.
Politician: Good Lord, you're not suggesting we should tax... thingy?
First Official: Poo poo's?
Third Official: No.
First Official: Thank God for that. Excuse me for a moment. (leaves)
Third Official: No, no, no - thingy.
Second Official: Number ones?
Third Official: No, thingy.
Politician: Thingy!
Second Official: Ah, thingy. Well it'll certainly make chartered accountancy a much more interesting job.
http://www.ibras.dk/montypython/episode15.htm
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Old 6th July 2019, 06:11 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If only this was shocking, or even mildly surprising news
Or indeed news at all!
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Old 6th July 2019, 12:26 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If only this was shocking, or even mildly surprising news
Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Or indeed news at all!

What definitely IS news about it, is the former head of MI6 saying it so very clearly and so publicly.

Perhaps someone can remind us of when was the last time a head of MI5 or MI6 made a public statement saying that an incoming prime minister was unfit to be trusted with UK intelligence secrets?

Last edited by IanS; 6th July 2019 at 01:33 PM.
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Old 6th July 2019, 01:59 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
I doubt a General Election will solve a great deal, based on current polling.

Well it would probably produce a different party in power. I would expect a Labour-Lib/Dem coalition (but only due to Labour not quite gaining enough seats to form a government on their own ... and with Lib-Dem's agreeing on a coalition only in order to prevent a "hard Brexit"). I would expect the Conservatives to do pretty badly in an election right now (though things can change very quickly in UK politics of course).

That could easily mean that a Labour-Lib/Dem coalition government could get a slightly more favourable deal from the EU (because when Corbyn met EU leaders at the time when Mrs May was asking for the current extension, the EU leaders made clear that they could work more easily with Corbyn).

And even if they could not get a better deal to offer the HoC, they might in any case have enough MPs between them (as a coalition) to back a deal without the Conservatives having enough MPs to overturn it.

That "deal" might of course be a new referendum (which iirc the Lib Dems want ... or else they want to scrap Brexit altogether), i.e. rather than any deal with conditions for actually exiting the EU.

IOW - for those of us who don't want to see the UK leave the EU, a new General Election could quite easily be expected to provide a majority vote against any hard Brexit (or even against any Brexit at all). So it would "solve" things in that sense (though of course you'd have the Brexit 30% of the electorate absolutely furious with UK politics ... and that would be a deeply uncomfortable position for any Lab-Lib/Dem government that alienated 30% of it's potential future voters like that ... but that's inevitable, because either way half the UK electorate is going to be very annoyed indeed whatever happens).

Last edited by IanS; 6th July 2019 at 02:01 PM.
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Old 6th July 2019, 03:34 PM   #269
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Civil servants should keep out of politics. They are very well rewarded and get knighthoods and other honours merely for doing their jobs. If they wish to challenge politicians rather than serve them, then working civil servants should resign their posts, and retired civil servants should give back their honours.
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Old 7th July 2019, 04:26 AM   #270
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In a similar sort of piece of news (which Darat and others can say is not news, if they want to say that) – I was just listening to John Pienaar's politics program this morning on BBC Radio-5, where he was interviewing first Jacob Rees Mogg, and then another Conservative MP (whose name I did not catch) who was saying that he would defy a Tory whip and vote against any No Deal, but he was then asked if he thought Boris would make a good PM, and he was absolutely clear in saying “no he would not make a good PM, because he is untrustworthy, he says one thing one moment but then does the opposite, he cannot be trusted”.

That is an amazingly scathing rejection of Boris Johnson for any Tory MP to make, not just a rejection as PM, but really a serious criticism of him as an honest or competent person at all.
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Old 7th July 2019, 05:50 AM   #271
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
In a similar sort of piece of news (which Darat and others can say is not news, if they want to say that) – I was just listening to John Pienaar's politics program this morning on BBC Radio-5, where he was interviewing first Jacob Rees Mogg, and then another Conservative MP (whose name I did not catch) who was saying that he would defy a Tory whip and vote against any No Deal, but he was then asked if he thought Boris would make a good PM, and he was absolutely clear in saying “no he would not make a good PM, because he is untrustworthy, he says one thing one moment but then does the opposite, he cannot be trusted”.

That is an amazingly scathing rejection of Boris Johnson for any Tory MP to make, not just a rejection as PM, but really a serious criticism of him as an honest or competent person at all.
Yes, but it's also an entirely reasonable, if not unavoidable, conclusion from an honest reading of his history. The man has been fired twice for lying and caught out without consequence many,many times more.
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Old 7th July 2019, 07:37 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
In a similar sort of piece of news (which Darat and others can say is not news, if they want to say that) – I was just listening to John Pienaar's politics program this morning on BBC Radio-5, where he was interviewing first Jacob Rees Mogg, and then another Conservative MP (whose name I did not catch) who was saying that he would defy a Tory whip and vote against any No Deal, but he was then asked if he thought Boris would make a good PM, and he was absolutely clear in saying “no he would not make a good PM, because he is untrustworthy, he says one thing one moment but then does the opposite, he cannot be trusted”.



That is an amazingly scathing rejection of Boris Johnson for any Tory MP to make, not just a rejection as PM, but really a serious criticism of him as an honest or competent person at all.
But will not make one iota of a difference to the 60,001 votes needed to make him our next PM.
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Old 7th July 2019, 07:42 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
In a similar sort of piece of news (which Darat and others can say is not news, if they want to say that) – I was just listening to John Pienaar's politics program this morning on BBC Radio-5, where he was interviewing first Jacob Rees Mogg, and then another Conservative MP (whose name I did not catch) who was saying that he would defy a Tory whip and vote against any No Deal, but he was then asked if he thought Boris would make a good PM, and he was absolutely clear in saying “no he would not make a good PM, because he is untrustworthy, he says one thing one moment but then does the opposite, he cannot be trusted”.



That is an amazingly scathing rejection of Boris Johnson for any Tory MP to make, not just a rejection as PM, but really a serious criticism of him as an honest or competent person at all.
Just another point. The MP is clearly confused, there is no vote needed for a no deal exit, he probably meant if legislation was put before the house that prevented a no deal exit he would vote for it. However I doubt that will mean anything as the HoC have rejected all such legislation and amendments so far and nothing has changed in the last few months.
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Old 7th July 2019, 08:09 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
What definitely IS news about it, is the former head of MI6 saying it so very clearly and so publicly.

Perhaps someone can remind us of when was the last time a head of MI5 or MI6 made a public statement saying that an incoming prime minister was unfit to be trusted with UK intelligence secrets?
Probably all the time but the memo was marked 'Top Secret'.
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Old 7th July 2019, 08:12 AM   #275
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Civil servants should keep out of politics. They are very well rewarded and get knighthoods and other honours merely for doing their jobs. If they wish to challenge politicians rather than serve them, then working civil servants should resign their posts, and retired civil servants should give back their honours.
'Should' and 'will' are two different words for a reason.
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Old 7th July 2019, 08:18 AM   #276
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Boris supporters claiming he has trade deals 'ready to roll' after he is elected.

No details of course.
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Old 7th July 2019, 09:07 AM   #277
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Here's a look at the "private donations" BoJo received only in the few days between May 28 and June 10. £235,500.
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Old 7th July 2019, 11:01 AM   #278
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
But will not make one iota of a difference to the 60,001 votes needed to make him our next PM.

Oh, he will probably get elected (i.e. Boris) by the paid-up members of the Conservative party, or at least it looks that way at present. But what interviews like that do show is just how much distrust and dislike there is for Boris even amongst Conservative MPs.

What does that tell us? Well it tells us (a) that quite a few of the people who have actually worked with him, do not trust him and think he is incompetent and nowhere near fit to be in any high office let alone Prime Minister ... and frankly, I do not ever recall so many MPs (as well as journalists who have worked with him) saying anything anywhere near so scathing about a prospective/likely Prime Minister.

And (b) it also tells us that as PM, Boris may not get quite the usual level of support expected from his own Conservative MPs in the forthcoming votes on any Brexit deal that he tries to push through the Hoc. And if Boris begins to look like a complete shambles and an embarrassment to his own party, then that would probably make it even more difficult for him to gain enough supporting votes for the sort of hard-line Brexit he wants voted through the HoC.
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Old 8th July 2019, 12:37 AM   #279
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
Oh, he will probably get elected (i.e. Boris) by the paid-up members of the Conservative party, or at least it looks that way at present. But what interviews like that do show is just how much distrust and dislike there is for Boris even amongst Conservative MPs.
They may dislike him, but 2/3 of them voted for him in the process to whittle down the list to two candidates. This means that the majority like him enough and/or they know which way their bread is likely to be buttered in the future but in any case he currently has their support.

Originally Posted by IanS View Post
What does that tell us? Well it tells us (a) that quite a few of the people who have actually worked with him, do not trust him and think he is incompetent and nowhere near fit to be in any high office let alone Prime Minister ... and frankly, I do not ever recall so many MPs (as well as journalists who have worked with him) saying anything anywhere near so scathing about a prospective/likely Prime Minister.
It doesn't really matter who thinks he's unsuitable unless it's enough Conservative Party members to swing the vote towards Jeremy Hunt (who is hardly a stellar candidate )

Originally Posted by IanS View Post
And (b) it also tells us that as PM, Boris may not get quite the usual level of support expected from his own Conservative MPs in the forthcoming votes on any Brexit deal that he tries to push through the Hoc. And if Boris begins to look like a complete shambles and an embarrassment to his own party, then that would probably make it even more difficult for him to gain enough supporting votes for the sort of hard-line Brexit he wants voted through the HoC.
The thing is, as has been pointed out in the Brexit thread, Boris doesn't necessarily need anything passed by Parliament to get a no-deal Brexit, he just needs Parliament to continue to fail to agree on an alternative course of action.

Given that any alternative course of action would almost certainly be introduced by one or more opposition parties then it's highly likely that the bill will fail it the government whips against it - which IMO it will almost certainly do.

Whether it's a bill to force Boris to go back and ask for more time (which in itself solves nothing unless an alternative course of action can be agreed), a bill to force a second referendum, a bill to force a revocation of Article 50 or even a no-confidence motion (which again may or may not solve anything depending on the makeup of Parliament following a general election and the Brexit platforms of the various parties post election), if the Conservatives are whipped to oppose it then IMO it will likely fail because the number of Conservative rebels will be too small to offset the support of the DUP and the handful of Labour MPs who would vote against their party.

Even if Boris is personally unpopular among Conservative MPs (but he got the support of a clear majority of them in the leadership race), voting on Brexit-related matters IMO goes beyond the PM's personal popularity in any case. The Conservative MPs will toe the party line - especially one which delivers a hard-Brexit (remember Theresa May's deal failed to get through because it wasn't hard enough of a Brexit for the ERG.
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Old 8th July 2019, 01:30 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by IanS View Post
So it would "solve" things in that sense (though of course you'd have the Brexit 30% of the electorate absolutely furious with UK politics ... and that would be a deeply uncomfortable position for any Lab-Lib/Dem government that alienated 30% of it's potential future voters like that ... but that's inevitable, because either way half the UK electorate is going to be very annoyed indeed whatever happens).
By and large they are not (and never have been) potential LibDem voters, and not all that many of them are potential Labour voters, frankly.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
They may dislike him, but 2/3 of them voted for him in the process to whittle down the list to two candidates. This means that the majority like him enough and/or they know which way their bread is likely to be buttered in the future but in any case he currently has their support.
He needs more than a majority of Tories, though.
Indeed, he needs almost all of the Tory MPs to support him (at least pay lip service). Only he can hardly be called a unifying character.
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