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Tags donald trump , Trump administration , Trump controversies

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Old 27th June 2019, 08:51 AM   #81
alfaniner
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Originally Posted by carrps View Post
It's been barely two years.
To clarify (and as noted above) this was Trump copy/pasting a Tweet from Lindsay Graham. The inserted "Thank you" between the quote and the source is cause for some confusion.

Normally retweets are labeled as such on Twitter.
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Old 27th June 2019, 08:57 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by carrps View Post
It's been barely two years.
And yet it feels like it's been ages.
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Old 27th June 2019, 09:03 AM   #83
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The two women who Jean Carroll told Trump raped her are speaking on the record to confirm her account.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/p...interview.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...mp/1582453001/
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...the-daily.html
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Old 27th June 2019, 09:31 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
The two women who Jean Carroll told Trump raped her are speaking on the record to confirm her account.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/p...interview.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...mp/1582453001/
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...the-daily.html
This raises a criminology question. Do we know if claims made at the time are significantly more likely to be correct? Do we have any data on this? Because these arguments are made as if they are true.
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Old 27th June 2019, 09:49 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
This raises a criminology question. Do we know if claims made at the time are significantly more likely to be correct? Do we have any data on this? Because these arguments are made as if they are true.
So what you're asking is how often do women call their closest friends out of the blue and make up a story about "(A celebrity) raped me last night," and then never tell anybody else for 23 years. Is that what you're asking?
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Old 27th June 2019, 09:52 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
So what you're asking is how often do women call their closest friends out of the blue and make up a story about "(A celebrity) raped me last night," and then never tell anybody else for 23 years. Is that what you're asking?
That is absolutely what I am asking. Before determining if this event makes it more or less likely to be true, we need data on if events like this make it more or less likely to be true.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:00 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
The two women who Jean Carroll told Trump raped her are speaking on the record to confirm her account.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/p...interview.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...mp/1582453001/
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...the-daily.html
I don't understand why she was laughing when she called the person after the assault. I guess everyone reacts differently, but I wouldn't expect laughter from someone who was just assaulted in the dressing room.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:02 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
That is absolutely what I am asking. Before determining if this event makes it more or less likely to be true, we need data on if events like this make it more or less likely to be true.
Jesus Christ, no we don't. Stop with this ****. There is no criminology as no one is going to be arrested for this specific instance. As I understand it the statute has long since passed.

If you're not convinced by the fact that 19 ******* women have come out with similar stories about how Trump assaulted them then no amount of "data on if events like this" blah blah blah is going to make any ******* difference.

If you want to imply something else, then you provide evidence of it. It's not on other people to research your incredulously ridiculous theories.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:06 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
I don't understand why she was laughing when she called the person after the assault. I guess everyone reacts differently, but I wouldn't expect laughter from someone who was just assaulted in the dressing room.
Stunned disbelief, denial, minimization. People react to bad things in different ways.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:07 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
Jesus Christ, no we don't. Stop with this ****. There is no criminology as no one is going to be arrested for this specific instance. As I understand it the statute has long since passed.

If you're not convinced by the fact that 19 ******* women have come out with similar stories about how Trump assaulted them then no amount of "data on if events like this" blah blah blah is going to make any ******* difference.

If you want to imply something else, then you provide evidence of it. It's not on other people to research your incredulously ridiculous theories.
I'm not presenting a thesis. I'm asking what would be the basis of the thesis that the fact she told two friends at the time is evidence that the story is true. Where is the evidence for that?
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:09 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Stunned disbelief, denial, minimization. People react to bad things in different ways.
I would ask plague what is the criminology evidence that those victim behaviors inform the accuracy or inaccuracy of the story.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:10 AM   #92
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Yes, laughing is a common reaction to a traumatic event:

Quote:
Some reactions are common to people who experience traumatic stress as a result of witnessing or being involved in a traumatic event. ... You may also experience a number of physical shock reactions such as nausea, perspiration, tremors, loss of body control, eg., bladder control, uncontrollable crying or laughing, etc.
https://www.google.com/search?source...30.XZtz6fu4DTM
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:19 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I'm not presenting a thesis. I'm asking what would be the basis of the thesis that the fact she told two friends at the time is evidence that the story is true. Where is the evidence for that?
I don't know if stats exist. Anecdotally, though, GOP operatives seem happy to say that women not telling anyone at the time is evidence that they're lying now. This at least forestalls that argument.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:21 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I'm not presenting a thesis. I'm asking what would be the basis of the thesis that the fact she told two friends at the time is evidence that the story is true. Where is the evidence for that?
Which is more probable to be true using common sense and logic?

1. A woman makes up a rape story, lies to two of her best friends immediately about it including identifying the famous and powerful rapist, then waits 23 years to put it in a book.

2. A woman is raped, confides in two friends immediately, is counseled to tell no one because of the power of the rapist, then waits 23 years to put it in a book knowing that she is now not alone in her accusation of assault of that same rapist?
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:22 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I'm not presenting a thesis. I'm asking what would be the basis of the thesis that the fact she told two friends at the time is evidence that the story is true. Where is the evidence for that?
Bob for the love of God stop spouting off gibberish and defending it with some variation on "It's okay because I'm not trying to make a point."
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:24 AM   #96
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Let's remember that we aren't talking trial levels of "beyond reasonable doubt" of proof: Trump will not be charged for this, criminally or civilly.

There is enough evidence to make the claim that Trump did rape her. If he is so certain that this is just slander, he can sue her.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:42 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Let's remember that we aren't talking trial levels of "beyond reasonable doubt" of proof: Trump will not be charged for this, criminally or civilly.

There is enough evidence to make the claim that Trump did rape her. If he is so certain that this is just slander, he can sue her.
...as he threatened to do to all those 'lying' women who came forward during the campaign. No suits have been filed.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:43 AM   #98
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I don't want to start a whole separate thread for this but SCOTUS decided partisan gerrymandering isn't their responsibility to overturn.

So we can count on politicians continuing to draw extremely partisan maps letting them pick their voters instead of voters picking their representatives.

My state of Wisconsin in 2018 voted in a Democratic governor with 51% of the vote but due to partisan gerrymandering only received 36 out of 99 assembly seats.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:54 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Which is more probable to be true using common sense and logic?

1. A woman makes up a rape story, lies to two of her best friends immediately about it including identifying the famous and powerful rapist, then waits 23 years to put it in a book.

2. A woman is raped, confides in two friends immediately, is counseled to tell no one because of the power of the rapist, then waits 23 years to put it in a book knowing that she is now not alone in her accusation of assault of that same rapist?
I care which one is more likely to be true based on data. Common sense in the absence of data to justify it is nothing to me.

ETA: and I'm not sure why it is acceptable to other skeptics.

Last edited by BobTheCoward; 27th June 2019 at 10:56 AM.
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Old 27th June 2019, 10:57 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
I don't want to start a whole separate thread for this but SCOTUS decided partisan gerrymandering isn't their responsibility to overturn.

So we can count on politicians continuing to draw extremely partisan maps letting them pick their voters instead of voters picking their representatives.

My state of Wisconsin in 2018 voted in a Democratic governor with 51% of the vote but due to partisan gerrymandering only received 36 out of 99 assembly seats.
this absolutely deserves its own thread.
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Old 27th June 2019, 11:06 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I care which one is more likely to be true based on data. Common sense in the absence of data to justify it is nothing to me.

ETA: and I'm not sure why it is acceptable to other skeptics.
How would data on this even be gathered as most rapes go unreported?

In the absence of data, common sense and logic is what is left. Use it.
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Old 27th June 2019, 11:13 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
How would data on this even be gathered as most rapes go unreported?

In the absence of data, common sense and logic is what is left. Use it.
In Bayesian terms, you're talking about background knowledge. We don't have data that people tell others privately about a false event and then wait decades to reveal the event publicly, but we do have data that people will not reveal a traumatic event like a rape publicly, but only privately, at the time. We also know that people may reveal publicly events that they once kept private.

This background knowledge only confirms things probabilistically, but then we often have to work probabilistically anyway.

Are we done with this?
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Old 27th June 2019, 11:17 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by Paul2 View Post
In Bayesian terms, you're talking about background knowledge. We don't have data that people tell others privately about a false event and then wait decades to reveal the event publicly, but we do have data that people will not reveal a traumatic event like a rape publicly, but only privately, at the time. We also know that people may reveal publicly events that they once kept private.

This background knowledge only confirms things probabilistically, but then we often have to work probabilistically anyway.

Are we done with this?
Where is that data?
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Old 27th June 2019, 11:17 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
I don't know if stats exist. Anecdotally, though, GOP operatives seem happy to say that women not telling anyone at the time is evidence that they're lying now. This at least forestalls that argument.
Which is why they need to do some real bridge building with the catholic church after they get slandered by Pennsylvania and the like. I mean it is as bad as believing some guy was abusing the olympic gymnastic team for decades, that is simply not credible.
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Old 27th June 2019, 11:27 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Stunned disbelief, denial, minimization. People react to bad things in different ways.
Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Yes, laughing is a common reaction to a traumatic event:
I have absolutely no doubts that both of you are correct. I made a bit of a reference to that in the post.

Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I'm not presenting a thesis. I'm asking what would be the basis of the thesis that the fact she told two friends at the time is evidence that the story is true. Where is the evidence for that?
Basis of the thesis? I prefer my word salad with more carrots personally.

Again, there doesn't need to be evidence for it. If you don't want to believe it, I'm going to throw a couple of options out there for you. You can a) not believe it or b) don't believe it or c) choose to believe it or d) decide you don't care, and plenty of shades in between all of those. (Yes, I know a and be are the same. I just wanted Bob to have multiple options to say the same thing.)

You either believe this is evidence, or you don't. There's nothing beyond that, and that's why it's obnoxious to ask.
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Last edited by plague311; 27th June 2019 at 11:29 AM.
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Old 27th June 2019, 11:40 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
I have absolutely no doubts that both of you are correct. I made a bit of a reference to that in the post.



Basis of the thesis? I prefer my word salad with more carrots personally.

Again, there doesn't need to be evidence for it. If you don't want to believe it, I'm going to throw a couple of options out there for you. You can a) not believe it or b) don't believe it or c) choose to believe it or d) decide you don't care, and plenty of shades in between all of those. (Yes, I know a and be are the same. I just wanted Bob to have multiple options to say the same thing.)

You either believe this is evidence, or you don't. There's nothing beyond that, and that's why it's obnoxious to ask.
I have no preference on whether to believe it or not. To believe this is evidence, we should have a reasonable basis to believe it is evidence.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:00 PM   #107
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So, Trump is in a twitter feud with Soccer player Megan Rapinoe, after she initially knelt during the national anthem during previous games (but now just refuses to put her hand over her heart) in protest over minority oppression. She has also said that she will not visit the white house if invited.

Trump has gone on the offensive, calling her unpatriotic, etc.
However, Trump accidentally referenced the wrong Megan, referring to Megan Rapino (no 'e'), i.e the wrong person.

Rapino certainly knew how to handle it with her own Twitter responses:
"And she was right to say so, cry me a river"
"Plus this isn’t even her account."
"Mom come pick me up old men are attacking me"

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/wrong-t...g-me-1.4484887
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:08 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I have no preference on whether to believe it or not. To believe this is evidence, we should have a reasonable basis to believe it is evidence.
Common sense and logic form a reasonable basis when data is missing.

'Reasonable' synonyms: logical, rational, sensible.

'Common sense' synonyms: sensibleness, reason.

'Logical' synonyms: reasoned, sensible.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:16 PM   #109
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Trump tweet:
Quote:
Megan should never disrespect our country, the White House, or our flag, especially since so much has been done for her and the team.
You mean like calling the White House a "dump" and humping the flag like it's a bitch in heat?
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:18 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Common sense and logic form a reasonable basis when data is missing.

.
No, they don't.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:27 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Where is that data?
Sorry, BTC, I think I will respectfully decline your invitation to discuss that further. Maybe someone else would like to?
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:32 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by Paul2 View Post
Sorry, BTC, I think I will respectfully decline your invitation to discuss that further. Maybe someone else would like to?
I'm with you. A person can only take so much of being Bobbed and I've reached my limit.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:38 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by carrps View Post
It's been barely two years.
But it feels so much longer!
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:42 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Well maybe people didn't realize it was going to turn into such a **** show.
Even before the 2016 election, it was abundantly clear -- as clear as newly made glass, as clear as a summer day, crystal clear -- that it would be a **** show and then some.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:53 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Hell I don't even follow Trump's tweets I'm surprised so many others here do LOL
Why read Trump's own words and risk perceiving the nuttery in evidence? Better to get Fox's sanitized coverage.
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Old 27th June 2019, 12:56 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
Why read Trump's own words and risk perceiving the nuttery in evidence? Better to get Fox's sanitized coverage.
They will make fascinating historical documents in the future.
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Old 27th June 2019, 01:17 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
They will make fascinating historical documents in the future.
Or a game show.

Did Pres. Donald J. Trump Really Tweet That?

Play the exciting new game where contestants try to determine which tweet was actually written by the former president or a monkey playing with a keyboard, a 10 yr. old boy, or an inmate at an insane asylum! Available online or as a board game. Rated for Mature Audiences only.
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Old 27th June 2019, 01:28 PM   #118
Segnosaur
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And just in case you didn't think Trump has increase the deficit enough, or given enough benefits to the wealthy....

From: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...ort-2019-06-27
The White House is considering a plan to index capital gains to inflation -- and do so in a way that bypasses Congress...Such a move would likely draw legal challenges over whether it has such authority. The top 1% would receive 86% of the benefit from such a move...and would cost $102 billion over a decade.

So we have a potential plan that 1) helps the rich, 2) takes away power from congress, and 3) increases the debt even more.
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Old 27th June 2019, 02:11 PM   #119
plague311
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Or a game show.

Did Pres. Donald J. Trump Really Tweet That?

Play the exciting new game where contestants try to determine which tweet was actually written by the former president or a monkey playing with a keyboard, a 10 yr. old boy, or an inmate at an insane asylum! Available online or as a board game. Rated for Mature Audiences only.
John Oliver did something pretty close to that. He actually just pressed the word that came up on the middle section of an iphone for next word guesses.
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Old 27th June 2019, 02:51 PM   #120
Minoosh
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Originally Posted by Ladewig View Post
Those comments will have zero impact on President Trump’s support because (1) most of his supporters are unaware that he said them, (2) most of the rest don’t care, (3) many of them think “she’s not my type” is a relevant and appropriate argument in establishing one’s defense in a rape accusation, and (4) they believe an exit strategy is unnecessary because we would, in President Trump’s words, obliterate them.
OK: I'm not going to say your wrong, because I don't know. But here is my thinking: If a pollster asks a Trump voter right now if they (still) support the president, they're going to say yes. They're not going to back down. But I'm not sure all of them necessarily want Trump as president. In the voting booth they'll be alone with their thoughts.

People do tend to draw the line somewhere as evidenced by Roy Moore's defeat. And right now he's not doing so well. There was a backlash.

I have only anecdotal evidence to go on but I'm thinking of my brother who has a daughter in her 20s. He still trolls me on any topic he considers liberal but I notice he doesn't explicitly support Trump these days. I just have a hunch Trump voters may quietly be changing their minds about him.

I live in a state that had an insanely "conservative" (actual radical) legislature. They kept getting re-elected. Yet voters statewide supported a Democratic governor by a wide margin. My theory is people like the lawmakers stirring up **** but they also wanted a check on their power.

It helps that my bro is not an evangelical Christian with an end-times mindset.
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