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Tags airplane incidents , government shutdown

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Old 13th May 2019, 02:48 PM   #241
smartcooky
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I'm wondering whether this software fix is going to be enough. Already, Ethiopian Airlines have said that their flight crews and cabin staff do not want to fly in the plane again. (For context, Ethiopian is no small airline - its the biggest airline in Africa, and its a long time customer of Boeing, so what they have to say will not be taken lightly.)

Perhaps Boeing should just bite the bullet here, and give up their idea of having the 737 Max run on the 737NG type rating. Remove MCAS altogether, and simply type rate it as a new aircraft with all the conversion training and simulator time that entails.
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Old 13th May 2019, 04:04 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I'm wondering whether this software fix is going to be enough. Already, Ethiopian Airlines have said that their flight crews and cabin staff do not want to fly in the plane again. (For context, Ethiopian is no small airline - its the biggest airline in Africa, and its a long time customer of Boeing, so what they have to say will not be taken lightly.)

Perhaps Boeing should just bite the bullet here, and give up their idea of having the 737 Max run on the 737NG type rating. Remove MCAS altogether, and simply type rate it as a new aircraft with all the conversion training and simulator time that entails.
I agree. In thinking about what type of testing and pilot training would convince me to fly on a 737 Max in the future, it would have to be quite extensive. It would have to be real-life training and real-life testing using the system working together with all the other plane software and hardware. Under multiple scenarios. Not just an iPad app. I am appalled that Boeing thought it not necessary to test the MCAS system, and their check list for to disable it, from the very beginning first using a full function simulator and then in real life. Presumably they would have recognized the immense physical difficulty of manually re-establishing trim at higher speeds. This goes beyond their criminal (IMO) decision to allow a single-point failure of one angle of attack sensor to lethally disrupt control.

Why would anyone trust a "fixed" 737 Max given the story that has emerged so far? What other problems might still be undiscovered given the rush to produce this plane? But frankly I don't see how Boeing as a company can pull up from this nose dive either. Sad to say but the future of Boeing itself seems dim to me.
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Old 13th May 2019, 04:51 PM   #243
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/e...lanes-n1005196

Gebremariam (EA CEO) said it's not enough for Boeing to only review the "MCAS" anti-stall system believed responsible for the fatal crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia. He wants a much more rigorous review of the plane.

"We strongly believe that entire flight control system needs to be reviewed," he said.


And I agree with his standpoint.
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Old 13th May 2019, 05:39 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I'm wondering whether this software fix is going to be enough. Already, Ethiopian Airlines have said that their flight crews and cabin staff do not want to fly in the plane again. (For context, Ethiopian is no small airline - its the biggest airline in Africa, and its a long time customer of Boeing, so what they have to say will not be taken lightly.)



Perhaps Boeing should just bite the bullet here, and give up their idea of having the 737 Max run on the 737NG type rating. Remove MCAS altogether, and simply type rate it as a new aircraft with all the conversion training and simulator time that entails.
Ten bucks says that was the plan all along. Run the MAX as an interim solution, while they develop a new type, based on the learnings from the MAX.
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Old 13th May 2019, 09:35 PM   #245
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Ten bucks says that was the plan all along. Run the MAX as an interim solution, while they develop a new type, based on the learnings from the MAX.
Boeing have had several years to develop a new aircraft, yet nothing has been announced. Pity. They need a modern aircraft. Though the costs of this would be huge.
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Old 17th May 2019, 12:08 AM   #246
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People posting here may be interested in this article;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources...deadly_crashes
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Old 17th May 2019, 08:35 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Boeing have had several years to develop a new aircraft, yet nothing has been announced. Pity. They need a modern aircraft. Though the costs of this would be huge.
I was actually working on that new aircraft in 2005....
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Old 17th May 2019, 08:50 AM   #248
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So serious question... can Boeing as a business survive (in anything resembling it's current form) if the 737 MAX fails?

From everything I've read they've got a LOT invested and sunk into this model and don't have an actual successor for the actual 737 airframe anywhere in the foreseeable future.

I don't know enough about aerospace to know if the sub-system most likely responsible for these incidents is something they can just remove or work around.
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Old 17th May 2019, 10:08 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
So serious question... can Boeing as a business survive (in anything resembling it's current form) if the 737 MAX fails?
Well, their business has certainly taken a hit.

From: https://www.businessinsider.com/boei...-report-2019-5
According to CNN, the company said in a report released on Tuesday that it did not receive any new orders for its 737 Max jets or its other popular aircraft, such as the 787 Dreamliner or the 777 last month.
...
Boeing said it has lost at least $1 billion since the deadly crashes and that it couldn't predict how much worse the future financial effect of the incidents would be. It also said its core profits fell 21% in the first three months of 2019 compared with the same period last year.


They do have their military planes... like the F18 and Osprey, but those are rather limited markets. (and the F18 is being replaced with the F35 in the U.S. navy).
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Old 17th May 2019, 10:39 AM   #250
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From the Badscience thread on this:

Originally Posted by bmforre
More detail on
Reenactment in a flight simulator
Quote:
Countering the notion that U.S. pilots could have overcome the emergencies that brought down the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines jets, the latest issue of trade magazine Aviation Week describes a simulator test flown as part of recurrent training by a U.S.-based 737 MAX crew that re-created a critical part of the crashed Ethiopian flight. The simulation indicated that the pilots “faced a near-impossible task of getting their 737 MAX 8 under control.”

Starting from the point where the Ethiopian pilots hit the cut-off switches and stopped MCAS from operating, the U.S. MAX crew tried in the simulator to recover.

Even though the U.S. crew performed the simulator experiment at a normal speed of 250 knots instead of the more than 350 knots of the Ethiopian jet, the forces on the jet’s tail still prevented them from moving the manual wheel in the cockpit that would have corrected the nose-down attitude.
They did get out of the dive but the same escape wouldn't have been available in Ethiopia:
Quote:
To get out of it, the pilots used an old aviator technique called the “roller coaster” method — letting the yoke go to relieve the forces on the tail, then cranking the wheel, and repeating this many times.

This technique has not been in U.S. pilot manuals for decades, and pilots today are not typically trained on it. Using it in the simulator, the U.S. MAX crew managed to save the aircraft but lost 8,000 feet of altitude in the process. The Ethiopian MAX never rose higher than 8,000 feet, indicating that from that point in the flight, the crew couldn’t have saved it.
More confirmation:
Quote:
A similar experiment, though without the use of the roller-coaster technique, was performed by a European airline pilot and 737 flight instructor who runs a popular Youtube channel called Mentour Pilot about aviator skills.

His simulator session ended as the pilot pulled with all his might on the yoke to try to keep the jet’s nose up, while the co-pilot beside him tried futilely to move the manual wheel.

In response to criticism of the design of MCAS that led to these struggles in the cockpit, Boeing’s leadership has avoided explicitly accepting responsibility for the accidents pending the completion of the crash investigations.
Chauvinism:
Quote:
Three pilots interviewed for this story said the report from McGregor and Cordle is very one-sided, and all objected to what they saw as blinkered chauvinism in this view of U.S. pilots as superior.

“It’s unfair to put the blame on the crew solely,” said the Mentour pilot, who asked not to be named as he doesn’t speak for his airline. “As in any air accident, there are going to be a combination of factors, one being mistakes by the crew. But they shouldn’t have been put in that position in the first place.

“The pilots were put under an enormous amount of pressure and at a very low altitude,” he said. “If you put any number of normally trained crews in that situation, you would have a lot of different outcomes, and most of them wouldn’t be very good.”
Towards a reasonable conclusion?
Quote:
Bjorn Fehrm, a Swedish pilot and aerospace engineer who is an analyst for Bainbridge Island-based Leeham.net, said the report assumes the accidents could have been avoided by “a really proficient pilot … on a good day.”

But he said Boeing and Airbus cannot rely on the roughly 300,000 pilots flying worldwide having a good day and being perfectly trained for every emergency.

“It’s not the reality, and reality rules,” Ferhm said. “The aircraft have to be safe for these 300,000 trained pilots.”

He added it’s clear this is possible, because of how Boeing has developed a software update fix for MCAS.

That update, Fehrm said, “has all the considerations it should have had from the start.”
Respect for one another:
Quote:
The veteran U.S. airline captain said that the American aviation community needs to avoid getting “too cocky about U.S. pilots being immune from mistakes.”

He said he’s spent a lot of time flying with local pilots in western China where the mountains are high and the flying is hazardous.

“I’d put them up against American airline pilots any day,” he said. “They are exceptional airmen.”

And he criticized Boeing for designing an airplane in which a system triggered by a single sensor failure would present such challenges and require such a high-performance response from the pilots.

“That can’t be good,” he said. “I cannot believe Boeing is proud of this.”
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Old 17th May 2019, 10:44 AM   #251
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
So serious question... can Boeing as a business survive (in anything resembling it's current form) if the 737 MAX fails?

From everything I've read they've got a LOT invested and sunk into this model and don't have an actual successor for the actual 737 airframe anywhere in the foreseeable future.

I don't know enough about aerospace to know if the sub-system most likely responsible for these incidents is something they can just remove or work around.
I would say 'Yes', the Boeing Company will survive even if all of the 737 Max planes fail.

After all, Boeing has already many billions of dollars worth of military contracts to fill and their other civilian planes are doing well.

So while a 737 Max failure will hurt Boeing, I seriously doubt if such a failure could actually kill Boeing.
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Old 17th May 2019, 10:47 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
I'm wondering whether this software fix is going to be enough.

Can software fix the single sensor issue? Is a second sensor "wired up" already, but just ignored by current software?
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Old 17th May 2019, 11:14 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Can software fix the single sensor issue? Is a second sensor "wired up" already, but just ignored by current software?
Yes. In fact the MCAS was set up to switch from one to the other each flight.
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Old 19th May 2019, 04:38 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
I would say 'Yes', the Boeing Company will survive even if all of the 737 Max planes fail.

After all, Boeing has already many billions of dollars worth of military contracts to fill and their other civilian planes are doing well.

So while a 737 Max failure will hurt Boeing, I seriously doubt if such a failure could actually kill Boeing.
Boeing is sort of "Too Big to Fail" too. Just as General Motors was bailed out by the government when they went bankrupt, so too would Boeing, if it ever comes to that. Basically two companies supply almost all large commercial aircraft these days, Boeing and Airbus.
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