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Old 19th March 2019, 04:10 AM   #81
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Indeed. The Brexiteers surely know this so won't they act to prevent such a long extension? Do they have sufficient power to do so?

(Pardon a Yank's ignorance of British politics.)
Brexiteers are a colorful, disunited bunch. You have some in the ERG, who think no deal Brexit is all rainbows and unicorns (or at least claim that), you have some in Labour who think (or equivalent) Corbyn's idea of a Norway-style Brexit will tear the UK off the EU lobbyists while allowing a development of social Britain along the lines of the Netherlands or Denmark. Then you have those who aren't Brexiteers at all but represent constituencies that voted for Brexit so they feel they must ensure a Brexit to represent their voters.

A no-deal Brexit is favored by the ERG only, the others prefer a different Brexit and they can't agree on which. A hodgepodge mess all around.

Anyway, to answer the question: the long extension throws a spanner in the workings of the ERG vermin, but offers the others an option that is more to their liking. A different Brexit deal, along the lines of what Corbyn suggested (save for the main upsides he promised) is entirely possible, a long extension favors those. It would also be acceptable to those Brexiteers who just support Brexit for the sake of their idiotic constituencies, since another referendum may well change their minds. I see this as a non-zero possibilitiy of happening.

How large is another question altogether. The delay would likely split the Tories asounder. Decent people don't care about that, but Theresa May does and she's in charge.

The odds are "nonzero", that's as far as I'm willing to say right now.

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Old 19th March 2019, 04:14 AM   #82
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I see Theresa May's response to the decision that a third vote cannot be held on her deal is to try to go ahead with a third vote on her deal anyway. If nothing else, she's consistent.

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Old 19th March 2019, 08:32 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Rees-Mogg has tweeted he thinks leaving on the 29th with no deal is the best option.

With Mays deal off the table the choice is now no deal or ask for a long extension.
He might well think that but Parliament rejected that option. And TM really should be doing something about that decision rather than pretending it didn't happen.
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Old 19th March 2019, 08:45 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
He might well think that but Parliament rejected that option. And TM really should be doing something about that decision rather than pretending it didn't happen.
Such a vote does not overturn legislation. Until the law is changed by parliament we leave on the 29th.
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Old 19th March 2019, 08:47 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Such a vote does not overturn legislation. Until the law is changed by parliament we leave on the 29th.
Indeed. Which is why I say TM should be doing something about that rather than putting her fingers in her ears and shouting la la la
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Old 19th March 2019, 08:54 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Indeed. Which is why I say TM should be doing something about that rather than putting her fingers in her ears and shouting la la la
That has worked out ok for her so far, look at the leadership challenges she got through, why change now?
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Old 19th March 2019, 08:59 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
That has worked out ok for her so far, look at the leadership challenges she got through, why change now?
True. Maybe I should be more clear.... that's what she SHOULD be doing if she actually had any respect for Parliament or any morals whatsoever. So she probably won't
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Old 19th March 2019, 09:58 AM   #88
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You have to remember that May was 100% successful in getting the only vote from MPs that she has ever has been concerned about. Which was the leadership vote.

Thanks to the likes of Rees Mogg she doesn't have to really worry about the consequences of anything for the next few months.
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Old 19th March 2019, 10:54 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Apparently there is a precedent in Erskine May from 1604 "The Same Question Or Bill May Not be Twice Offered in One Session"

(Erskine May is the 'rule book' for Parliament)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erskin...ntary_Practice
I wonder who on the Speaker's staff managed to dig that one up?
To go back to the first year of the reign of James the First for a precedent is fascinating, from a pure historian's point of view.
I got a feeling that normally it would be considered sort of a "Dead Letter Rule".
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Old 19th March 2019, 10:56 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by Giordano View Post
And if you will forgive an American offering an opinion, Nigel Farage appears to me to be the stereotype of a classic English twit.
Agreed. Farage is right out of a Monty Python skit.
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Old 19th March 2019, 10:59 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I wonder who on the Speaker's staff managed to dig that one up?
To go back to the first year of the reign of James the First for a precedent is fascinating, from a pure historian's point of view.
I got a feeling that normally it would be considered sort of a "Dead Letter Rule".
Bercow did list several times when the rule had been invoked. iirc there were a few as recently as the 1920's, but I was laughing pretty hard at the time


I only smirked because it was ******* hilarious, says Bercow
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Old 19th March 2019, 12:50 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I wonder who on the Speaker's staff managed to dig that one up?
To go back to the first year of the reign of James the First for a precedent is fascinating, from a pure historian's point of view.
I got a feeling that normally it would be considered sort of a "Dead Letter Rule".

They didnít have to go back to the first year of the reign of James I for it, itís in the current edition of Erskine May, on page 397.
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Old 19th March 2019, 01:53 PM   #93
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In the case of JRM he had to take a time machine FORWARD to the 17th century.
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Old 19th March 2019, 11:21 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
It's kind of complicated, Farage is definitely rich and establishment, he went to a Eaton College school but the classic English twit is more obviously upper class (think Rees-Mogg) and we generally consider our twits to be oblivious but generally good natured (don't think Rees-Mogg). Farage is more of a spiv, in the ration book days that Brexiteers think so kindly of he'd have been trading on the Black Market.
How does that saying go, "The English and Americans are a common people separated only by a different language"

Anyway, can you explain those terms?
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Old 20th March 2019, 12:34 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
How does that saying go, "The English and Americans are a common people separated only by a different language"

Anyway, can you explain those terms?
"Spiv: a man, typically a flashy dresser, who makes a living by disreputable dealings." During WWII rationing spivs were black marketeers who, for a price, could get you that bottle of scotch or whatever.

Rationing in the United Kingdom
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Old 20th March 2019, 01:29 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Bercow did list several times when the rule had been invoked. iirc there were a few as recently as the 1920's, but I was laughing pretty hard at the time


I only smirked because it was ******* hilarious, says Bercow
And, of course, one of the reasons it hasn't been invoked more often is that, pre:FTPA, the government would have been pretty much dumped with a defeat of the magnitude May suffered in the first Meaningless Vote.

In order to show that this is pulling a rule out of his arse they'd have to show recent examples of represented votes where the details hadn't changed.

I don't expect any of them to do that, though...
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Old 20th March 2019, 01:46 AM   #97
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A trillion pounds is leaving the UK for Europe.

At 350 million pounds per week, UK is set to break even around 2027, assuming no other bills pile up and not including compound interest or other factors.

https://www.ft.com/content/016171be-...f-d49067e0f50d

At the more realistic 100 million pounds per week that comes out into mid-2040s, not including other Brexit related expenses.

I have a feeling the "50 years to first benefits" was wildly optimistic.

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Old 20th March 2019, 02:30 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
A trillion pounds is leaving the UK for Europe.



At 350 million pounds per week, UK is set to break even around 2027, assuming no other bills pile up and not including compound interest or other factors.



https://www.ft.com/content/016171be-...f-d49067e0f50d



At the more realistic 100 million pounds per week that comes out into mid-2040s, not including other Brexit related expenses.



I have a feeling the "50 years to first benefits" was wildly optimistic.



McHrozni
A trillion has already left, is this an additional trillion?
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Old 20th March 2019, 02:34 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
A trillion has already left, is this an additional trillion?
... I have no idea.

Total financial assets of London City in 2016 were estimated at just over 5 trillion pounds, so maybe?

The estimate by EY — which mainly covers client assets and cash moved out of the UK by banks and fund managers as well as the transfer of balance sheets as operations are relocated — has increased by £200bn since the last survey in January. -- the quoted article

200 billion pounds left in the last two months alone, according to the conservative estimate. It could indeed be London will lose out up to 40% of total financial assets. But a few words are adequate: "calamity", "cataclysm", "debacle", etc.

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Old 20th March 2019, 02:54 AM   #100
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Apparently democracy in the UK is all but dead, according to Trump Jr., because we didn't do exactly what his daddy told us to.

Twat.

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Old 20th March 2019, 03:00 AM   #101
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Well, the British yet again leads the world and provides a great example to others; in how not to try and wind the clock back and live in the past, whilst shooting ones self in the foot.
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Old 20th March 2019, 03:41 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
A trillion pounds is leaving the UK for Europe.

At 350 million pounds per week, UK is set to break even around 2027, assuming no other bills pile up and not including compound interest or other factors.

https://www.ft.com/content/016171be-...f-d49067e0f50d

At the more realistic 100 million pounds per week that comes out into mid-2040s, not including other Brexit related expenses.

I have a feeling the "50 years to first benefits" was wildly optimistic.

McHrozni
A trillion in assets in banks is not the same as income for the Government/country.
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Old 20th March 2019, 03:43 AM   #103
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So despite promising Parliament that she would ask for a long extension if she couldn't agree a deal, and passing a motion to that effect TM is now saying she won't. And will ask only for 3 months to appease her Brexiteer contingent.

It's a ******* disgrace quite frankly. And if she can get away with it then our constitution seems fundamentally flawed.
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Old 20th March 2019, 05:25 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
So despite promising Parliament that she would ask for a long extension if she couldn't agree a deal, and passing a motion to that effect TM is now saying she won't. And will ask only for 3 months to appease her Brexiteer contingent.

It's a ******* disgrace quite frankly. And if she can get away with it then our constitution seems fundamentally flawed.
How long should she ask for? Three more months would mean we spent 27 months negotiating a quick and dirty agreement to last 18 months. Remember the deal is only for the transition period up until 31/12/20.

If I was May I would withdraw article 50 and forget about a transition period. What is the point of a transition period where nothing changes apart from us losing our seat at the table?

She can then put work into negotiating the long term agreement and once* that is agreed she can re-enact article 50 and we can leave pretty much straight away.



*
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Old 20th March 2019, 05:35 AM   #105
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Jesus. May has just said that the House of Commons has rejected no-deal, Labour's deal and a customs union, so they're all definitely off the table, and then gone on to ask MP's to back her deal. She has not the slightest vestige of either consistency or self-awareness.

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Old 20th March 2019, 05:40 AM   #106
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You only get one shot at a50.
If it is withdrawn we can't re-apply.

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Old 20th March 2019, 05:44 AM   #107
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So there it is, May's master plan: 3 month extension, not a day more, and a meaningful vote #3 to see if the latest briberies have had an effect.

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Apparently democracy in the UK is all but dead, according to Trump Jr., because we didn't do exactly what his daddy told us to.

Twat.

Dave
In case people had forgotten Trump's master plan for leaving the EU, instead of negotiating, it involved suing the EU for.. reasons..
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Old 20th March 2019, 05:52 AM   #108
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That was quick, the EU has shot back to state than any extension must end on May 23, the date of the EU elections, or at the end of 2019.

Oh, and if May wants anything to get through the European parliament before it is dissolved ahead of those elections, she'll have to be quick, as that's already on April 18.
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Old 20th March 2019, 05:58 AM   #109
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It breaks my heart what has become of my country.
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Old 20th March 2019, 06:00 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by BillC View Post
It breaks my heart what has become of my country.
Seconded.
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Old 20th March 2019, 06:24 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Jesus. May has just said that the House of Commons has rejected no-deal, Labour's deal and a customs union, so they're all definitely off the table, and then gone on to ask MP's to back her deal. She has not the slightest vestige of either consistency or self-awareness.

Dave
Hey none of those are record setting defeats, so clearly they don't count. Unless you are in the top 5 defeats ever you of course don't get to come up for a vote again immediately.

Seriously I think she wants her deal to be most of the list of biggest defeats in history.
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Old 20th March 2019, 06:29 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
You only get kne shot at a50.
If it is withdrawn we can't re-apply.
That's not correct I don't think.

You can't withdraw it with the intention of re-applying later, but if you withdraw it there is no way a country could be bound indefinitely in the EU.

And what would the punishment be? Getting kicked out?
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Old 20th March 2019, 06:38 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
That was quick, the EU has shot back to state than any extension must end on May 23, the date of the EU elections, or at the end of 2019.

Oh, and if May wants anything to get through the European parliament before it is dissolved ahead of those elections, she'll have to be quick, as that's already on April 18.
I can kind of see the logic about the elections, although surely anytime before the new parliament sat would be OK? Which I think is July.

Not sure what the significance of the end of the year is though.
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Old 20th March 2019, 06:40 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
That's not correct I don't think.

You can't withdraw it with the intention of re-applying later, but if you withdraw it there is no way a country could be bound indefinitely in the EU.

And what would the punishment be? Getting kicked out?
How lateer is 'later'?

If there weren't restrictions what would stop a50 being used as a constant negotiating tool or for political posturing?

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Old 20th March 2019, 06:46 AM   #115
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Has junker said if the May 23rd deadline is acceptable regardless, or does the UK still need to present a strategy for that deadline?
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Old 20th March 2019, 07:08 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
How lateer is 'later'?

If there weren't restrictions what would stop a50 being used as a constant negotiating tool or for political posturing?
Its untested because nobody has ever previously been stupid enough to trigger A50 let alone try to do it twice!!!

I guess it would go to the courts to decide if either the EU refused to accept a withdrawal or refused to accept a re-submission
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Old 20th March 2019, 07:23 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Yea that seems unlikely with out some indication that the UK would reach a decision.
Plus the UK would need to elect MEPs.
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Old 20th March 2019, 07:24 AM   #118
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The UK could negotiate the rules on how to leave the EU within the EU parliamentary framework for the next five years.
And then it absolutely could apply to leave again, under the new rules.

At this point, nothing else makes sense.
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Old 20th March 2019, 07:27 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
Comic Sans would have been more appropriate.
Wingdings...
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
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Old 20th March 2019, 07:30 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think the attitude that they should let the kid touch the hot stove lid with hand and learn the hard way is gaining daily/
Yeah, I've been at a couple of seminars recently and there is little sympathy for the idiotic Brits.

Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
To keep it in the spirit of Parliament it would be sans serif ... but with all those little squiggles and tails on the ends of the letters.
You mean a serif font?
Serifs and terminators are the preferred terms.
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