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Old 23rd April 2019, 09:51 AM   #81
Segnosaur
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Here's something to consider:

The death rate for Nuclear power (in terms of KWh produced) is actually lower than for all other forms of energy.

Yes, nuclear accidents happen at places like Chernobyl. But nuclear plants also produce a lot of energy for each installation. While wind and solar may look safer, accidents do happen (during installation, and during construction), and since each solar panel or windmill produces only a small amount of electricity, you need a lot more to match the output of a nuclear plant.

From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesco.../#119d5198709b
Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)
Coal – global average 100,000 (41% global electricity)
Coal – China 170,000 (75% China’s electricity)
Coal – U.S. 10,000 (32% U.S. electricity)
Oil 36,000 (33% of energy, 8% of electricity)
Natural Gas 4,000 (22% global electricity)
Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)
Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)
Wind 150 (2% global electricity)
Hydro – global average 1,400 (16% global electricity)
Hydro – U.S. 5 (6% U.S. electricity)
Nuclear – global average 90 (11% global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)
Nuclear – U.S. 0.1 (19% U.S. electricity)
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Old 23rd April 2019, 09:56 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Actually reactors are being built all over the world. Mostly in China, India and the developing world. But not nearly enough. And France gets almost all of its electricity from nuclear. You used to be able to even tour their reactors.
I read that 55 reactors are being built worldwide. So i looked at the list and saw 4 listed for UAE - really I thought

https://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t&s...0RiEB5&ampcf=1

Bangladesh a couple! can't even complete coalfired on time.

Uk?

Out of 55 i doubt 10 will be built, and on time perhaps 2.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 10:00 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Here's something to consider:

The death rate for Nuclear power (in terms of KWh produced) is actually lower than for all other forms of energy.

Yes, nuclear accidents happen at places like Chernobyl. But nuclear plants also produce a lot of energy for each installation. While wind and solar may look safer, accidents do happen (during installation, and during construction), and since each solar panel or windmill produces only a small amount of electricity, you need a lot more to match the output of a nuclear plant.

From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesco.../#119d5198709b
Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)
Coal – global average 100,000 (41% global electricity)
Coal – China 170,000 (75% China’s electricity)
Coal – U.S. 10,000 (32% U.S. electricity)
Oil 36,000 (33% of energy, 8% of electricity)
Natural Gas 4,000 (22% global electricity)
Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)
Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)
Wind 150 (2% global electricity)
Hydro – global average 1,400 (16% global electricity)
Hydro – U.S. 5 (6% U.S. electricity)
Nuclear – global average 90 (11% global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)
Nuclear – U.S. 0.1 (19% U.S. electricity)
It's kind of amazing when you drill down to the actual facts. And the number of deaths at Fukushima are attributed to accidents and fear during the evacuation not radiation from the plant.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 10:18 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Zambo View Post
I read that 55 reactors are being built worldwide. So i looked at the list and saw 4 listed for UAE - really I thought

https://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t&s...0RiEB5&ampcf=1

Bangladesh a couple! can't even complete coalfired on time.

Uk?

Out of 55 i doubt 10 will be built, and on time perhaps 2.
Part of the problem is associated with how nuclear is done today. For example, the pressure vessels for most water reactors require a huge forging that today can only be done at one place (Japan) by one company in the world. And they are backlogged 5 years with orders.

Also, pressurized water reactors have safety concerns that have led to the facilities being over built to the extreme. Molten Salt reactors construction costs are likely to be less than 50 percent of today's water reactors and that cost could probably be cut in half by having them built in factories and shipped to their locations. They won't require defense in depth systems to prevent a catastrophe. No 15 mile evacuation plans.

Overall, molten salt promises to be cheaper and more profitable in the end.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 10:41 AM   #85
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Good thing that renewables don't need to be set up for half a century to be economical. So we can absolutely continue to expand green energy while at the same time promoting new reactors.
If we have a CO2-neutral energy source, we can use to to capture carbon and desalinate water - solving the biggest problems we currently face, climate-wise.
It is shortsighted to think in either/or terms when it comes to nuclear vs. solar, etc.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 10:51 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Good thing that renewables don't need to be set up for half a century to be economical. So we can absolutely continue to expand green energy while at the same time promoting new reactors.
If we have a CO2-neutral energy source, we can use to to capture carbon and desalinate water - solving the biggest problems we currently face, climate-wise.
It is shortsighted to think in either/or terms when it comes to nuclear vs. solar, etc.
So? They still are intermittent. And they have zero chance of solving the energy and CO2 problem. And they kill more people than nuclear.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 11:07 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
So? They still are intermittent. And they have zero chance of solving the energy and CO2 problem. And they kill more people than nuclear.
not really a problem, since energy storage is easy - just a recent survey showed all the place in the US where you could build hydropower systems to store the energy.

I'm fine with nuclear when it is ready - which it isn't.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 11:19 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
not really a problem, since energy storage is easy - just a recent survey showed all the place in the US where you could build hydropower systems to store the energy.

I'm fine with nuclear when it is ready - which it isn't.
Are you talking about pumped hydro? Which is twice as expensive and is only conducive to limited locations?

I'm glad you're ok with nuclear we're never going to get there without a sense of urgency.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 11:33 AM   #89
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Pumped hydro is dirt cheap, since you can do it when supply is high and demand is low. Energy providers might pay you to take power so the grid doesn't overload or they have to power down and later up bigger reactors.
And a recent study showed that plenty of places would be feasible.
But I agree that advanced nuclear reactors would be more desirable, if and when available.
Until then, hydro will be a better energy storage than giant battery farms.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 12:08 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Pumped hydro is dirt cheap, since you can do it when supply is high and demand is low. Energy providers might pay you to take power so the grid doesn't overload or they have to power down and later up bigger reactors.
And a recent study showed that plenty of places would be feasible.
I bet a lot of those places, while technically feasible, would run into NIMBYism problems. Such installations, while low risk, are not risk free.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 12:19 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Pumped hydro is dirt cheap, since you can do it when supply is high and demand is low. Energy providers might pay you to take power so the grid doesn't overload or they have to power down and later up bigger reactors.
And a recent study showed that plenty of places would be feasible.
But I agree that advanced nuclear reactors would be more desirable, if and when available.
Until then, hydro will be a better energy storage than giant battery farms.
It is not dirt cheap. Although It's about half the cost of battery stored electricity.

There are environmental issues, as well. But you are right about one thing in particular and that is the need to store excess peak electricity or overload the grid. Overloading the grid is becoming a big problem. In Hawaii for example there are new solar customers that cannot use their solar because the power companies won't/can't allow it. The grid cannot handle it.

And there is a huge question of who pays. Let's say as a residential customer you buy electricity from the grid at 10 cents @ kwh. What price should you be able charge your utility when you sell your excess solar back to them? Especially when both you and your neighbors want to sell it to them at peak supply times of the day and year. And you both want to buy power at peak demand in the evening and the cold short winter days.
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Old 23rd April 2019, 12:23 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Pumped hydro is dirt cheap, since you can do it when supply is high and demand is low.
Any sort of hydro project can be troubling from an environmental perspective.

From: https://www.theguardian.com/sustaina...e-change-study
The study from Washington State University finds that methane, which is at least 34 times more potent than another greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, makes up 80% of the emissions from water storage reservoirs created by dams.

From: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...er_environment
A dam that creates a reservoir (or a dam that diverts water to a run-of-river hydropower plant) may obstruct fish migration. A dam and reservoir can also change natural water temperatures, water chemistry, river flow characteristics, and silt loads....These changes may have negative effects on native plants and on animals in and around the river. ...The greenhouse effect from the emissions from reservoirs in tropical and temperate regions, including the United States, may be equal to or greater than the greenhouse effect of the carbon dioxide emissions from an equivalent amount of electricity generation with fossil fuels.
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Old 24th April 2019, 06:43 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Any sort of hydro project can be troubling from an environmental perspective.
Not true.

Quote:
A dam that creates a reservoir (or a dam that diverts water to a run-of-river hydropower plant) may obstruct fish migration. A dam and reservoir can also change natural water temperatures, water chemistry, river flow characteristics, and silt loads....These changes may have negative effects on native plants and on animals in and around the river. ...The greenhouse effect from the emissions from reservoirs in tropical and temperate regions, including the United States, may be equal to or greater than the greenhouse effect of the carbon dioxide emissions from an equivalent amount of electricity generation with fossil fuels.
Weasel words.

I am really sick of arguments like this. The truth is, everything we do may have a negative affect - but until you quantify the effect it is meaningless. In fact the vast majority of hydropower reservoirs are producing very low-carbon power.

Greenhouse gas emissions
Quote:
In certain conditions, a reservoir created by a hydropower dam will release greenhouse gases due to the decomposition of flooded organic material. In other conditions, a reservoir may act as carbon sink: absorbing more emissions than it emits.

A number of researchers have measured reservoir emissions at dam sites around the world, but each study is usually site-specific and the results not applicable to the great majority of reservoirs elsewhere.
When planning a hydro project it makes sense to take into account possible negative affects. That doesn't mean any sort of hydro project is 'troubling'.

Study shows hydropower’s greenhouse gas footprint
Quote:
High emissions intensities are possible from hydropower reservoirs, even on the same order of magnitude as fossil fuel generators, but only at extremely low power densities. Low power density however does not necessarily translate to high emissions intensity, as many projects with low power densities have emissions intensities well below 100 gCO2-eq/kWh...

It bears noting that the emissions intensity identified from this study applies only to hydropower projects with large reservoirs; many hydropower projects, often run-of-river, do not flood significant areas of land and consequently will have even lower emissions.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg median life-cycle carbon.jpg (30.1 KB, 2 views)
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Old 24th April 2019, 08:23 PM   #94
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No question, if hydro is done badly, it is bad for the environment and potentially dangerous.
But global warming makes it necessary to improve the control of water flow anyway.
Btw, this is already happening - worldwide, the number of hydroelectric installations is rising rapidly, including in the US.
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Old 26th April 2019, 05:14 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
What, you have not heard of Both music?.
Country and Western?
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Old 28th April 2019, 09:27 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
I've been following these more at least a decade. While the concepts are interesting, large scale commercial deployment is a long way off even if it turns out to be viable.
Which is why these concepts are not a interim solution until renewables can provide the required capacity. Remember, that is the proximate justification for these technologies.
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Old 28th April 2019, 09:43 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I bet a lot of those places, while technically feasible, would run into NIMBYism problems. Such installations, while low risk, are not risk free.
Nothing is risk free. That's not a useful criterion for evaluation of energy alternatives.
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Old 28th April 2019, 09:50 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
What, you have not heard of Both music? It's like Goth but a liitle wimpier.
Many Bothans died to bring us this information.
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Old 29th April 2019, 06:58 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Nothing is risk free. That's not a useful criterion for evaluation of energy alternatives.
I'm not evaluating energy alternatives in that post, I'm evaluating people's response to those alternatives. They are frequently not rational. If they were, the nuclear energy landscape would look a lot different than it does.
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Old 29th April 2019, 05:55 PM   #100
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Well, since you ask, I agree that the attitudes of the general public towards nuclear power are irrational and based on misinformation and a lack of knowledge of new designs and technologies. It's a lot safer than people think. But there's still a problem with what to do with the waste. The technology for dealing with that is improving, but not so far that it's not still a problem.
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Old 29th April 2019, 08:15 PM   #101
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Nuclear power providers have been lazy, unwilling to innovate and only interested in cashing in.
There is more fear than warranted, but there is also more risk and waste than necessary due to short-sighted greed.
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Old 29th April 2019, 10:33 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I'm not evaluating energy alternatives in that post, I'm evaluating people's response to those alternatives. They are frequently not rational. If they were, the nuclear energy landscape would look a lot different than it does.
Humans are largely irrational. Focused thinking is a learned skill, not an innate feature of us. In that light, maybe the nuke industry should have spent a lot more on their educational PR than on the next generation of power plant technology.
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Old 29th April 2019, 10:57 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Humans are largely irrational. Focused thinking is a learned skill, not an innate feature of us. In that light, maybe the nuke industry should have spent a lot more on their educational PR than on the next generation of power plant technology.
I blame Ishiro Honda.
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Old 30th April 2019, 02:06 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
No question, if hydro is done badly, it is bad for the environment and potentially dangerous.
Isn't that true of everything?
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Old 30th April 2019, 02:24 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Isn't that true of everything?
yeah, but a Mega-Dam breaking due to cheap concrete and poor maintenance can kill tens of thousands in a matter of hours - something even a Chernobly meltdown in a populated ares might have a hard time achieving.
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Old 30th April 2019, 06:58 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
yeah, but a Mega-Dam breaking due to cheap concrete and poor maintenance can kill tens of thousands in a matter of hours - something even a Chernobly meltdown in a populated ares might have a hard time achieving.
A dam doesn't even have to break to kill people.
https://www.thelocal.it/20181009/in-...t-dam-disaster

Note that the actual dam itself survived this disaster completely intact.
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Old 30th April 2019, 07:01 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Humans are largely irrational. Focused thinking is a learned skill, not an innate feature of us. In that light, maybe the nuke industry should have spent a lot more on their educational PR than on the next generation of power plant technology.
I'm not sure it would have worked. The problem is asymmetric, it's easier to make people scared of something like nuclear energy than it is to educate them about its safety.
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Old 30th April 2019, 08:36 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Not true.

Weasel words.

I am really sick of arguments like this. The truth is, everything we do may have a negative affect - but until you quantify the effect it is meaningless. In fact the vast majority of hydropower reservoirs are producing very low-carbon power.
They are, however, drowning habitats and interfering with existing ecosystems.

So there's a pretty large environmental impact even before we look at the actual power generation piece itself.

A nuke plant has a much smaller footprint on the environment, and waste storage tends to happen in sterile places far from any habitat or ecosystem. You don't have to run around turning river valleys into artificial lakes, to get nuke power.
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Old 1st May 2019, 02:07 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Part of the problem is associated with how nuclear is done today. For example, the pressure vessels for most water reactors require a huge forging that today can only be done at one place (Japan) by one company in the world. And they are backlogged 5 years with orders.

Also, pressurized water reactors have safety concerns that have led to the facilities being over built to the extreme. Molten Salt reactors construction costs are likely to be less than 50 percent of today's water reactors and that cost could probably be cut in half by having them built in factories and shipped to their locations. They won't require defense in depth systems to prevent a catastrophe. No 15 mile evacuation plans.

Overall, molten salt promises to be cheaper and more profitable in the end.
Can you sketch a realistic scenario under which such a promise leads to a 90+% reduction in net CO2 emission by the electricity generation sector, globally, by 2030 say?
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Old 1st May 2019, 08:38 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Can you sketch a realistic scenario under which such a promise leads to a 90+% reduction in net CO2 emission by the electricity generation sector, globally, by 2030 say?
There is no realistic scenario of achieving that by any means by 2030. It will not happen.
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Old 2nd May 2019, 06:41 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
There is no realistic scenario of achieving that by any means by 2030. It will not happen.
Perhaps, perhaps not.

I am interested in better understanding abcytesla’s claims, however, and am looking forward to a (preferably detailed) response from her.
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Old 3rd May 2019, 02:44 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Can you sketch a realistic scenario under which such a promise leads to a 90+% reduction in net CO2 emission by the electricity generation sector, globally, by 2030 say?
Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
There is no realistic scenario of achieving that by any means by 2030. It will not happen.
Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Perhaps, perhaps not.

I am interested in better understanding abcytesla’s claims, however, and am looking forward to a (preferably detailed) response from her.
Zig is right. There is no way we will cut 90% of CO2 emissions by 2030 or even 2040 with any method. Maybe 2050. But even that seems rosey.

The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment despite being highly successful was abandoned and almost forgotten forever in the early 70s. It was only rediscovered about 10 years ago. The reactor ran for 4 years. Unlike fusion reactors that have run for mere seconds. But the MSRE was a relatively tiny reactor.

What needs to happen as soon as possible is a larger molten salt test reactor or reactors need to be built. We need a methodology to quickly and safely build and licences reactors.

They need to be built and licensed at a factory and shipped to site. This was mostly impossible with PWRs because they are huge and required significant on-site work.. But Liquid Fuel Molten Salt reactors are likely to be 1/4th the size of PWRs and the building that houses it will be tiny compared to the massive concrete structures that house PWRs. In a factory setting I can see reactor after reactor rolling off the line and shipped to site each providing cheap clean safe energy in many different forms.
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Old 4th May 2019, 10:42 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Zig is right. There is no way we will cut 90% of CO2 emissions by 2030 or even 2040 with any method. Maybe 2050. But even that seems rosey.

The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment despite being highly successful was abandoned and almost forgotten forever in the early 70s. It was only rediscovered about 10 years ago. The reactor ran for 4 years. Unlike fusion reactors that have run for mere seconds. But the MSRE was a relatively tiny reactor.

What needs to happen as soon as possible is a larger molten salt test reactor or reactors need to be built. We need a methodology to quickly and safely build and licences reactors.

They need to be built and licensed at a factory and shipped to site. This was mostly impossible with PWRs because they are huge and required significant on-site work.. But Liquid Fuel Molten Salt reactors are likely to be 1/4th the size of PWRs and the building that houses it will be tiny compared to the massive concrete structures that house PWRs. In a factory setting I can see reactor after reactor rolling off the line and shipped to site each providing cheap clean safe energy in many different forms.
Thanks.

What is a realistic range (electricity production) of such reactors, by 2030? 2040? 2050? Globally. Under favorable, but not ridiculous, circumstances.
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Old 4th May 2019, 04:15 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Thanks.

What is a realistic range (electricity production) of such reactors, by 2030? 2040? 2050? Globally. Under favorable, but not ridiculous, circumstances.
I'm not sure anyone can provide you with a realistic range. It really depends on how things develop both politically and technically. That said. I can see 5 Gw a year in 2030 and 2 Tw a year in 2050 of new power generation. Far too many variables though to say if this is too optimistic.
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Old 5th May 2019, 08:47 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'm not sure anyone can provide you with a realistic range. It really depends on how things develop both politically and technically. That said. I can see 5 Gw a year in 2030 and 2 Tw a year in 2050 of new power generation. Far too many variables though to say if this is too optimistic.
Thanks.

For comparison, what’s the current global (fixed site) electricity generation? How much of that comes from CO2-making methods?

Wild idea: replace coal-fired plants with MSR-based ones. At the same locations. Aside from coal plant de-commissioning stuff, what major technical challenges would there be?
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Old 5th May 2019, 10:23 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'm not sure anyone can provide you with a realistic range. It really depends on how things develop both politically and technically. That said. I can see 5 Gw a year in 2030 and 2 Tw a year in 2050 of new power generation. Far too many variables though to say if this is too optimistic.
Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Thanks.

For comparison, what’s the current global (fixed site) electricity generation? How much of that comes from CO2-making methods?

Wild idea: replace coal-fired plants with MSR-based ones. At the same locations. Aside from coal plant de-commissioning stuff, what major technical challenges would there be?
I believe my first guess about what it could be in 2050 was actually too low. Think 5Tw in 2040 and 50Tw per year in 2050 and 500Tw of new power per year in 2060.


Quote:
The total amount of electricity consumed worldwide was 19,504 TWh in 2013, 16,503 TWh in 2008, 15,105 TWh in 2005, and 12,116 TWh in 2000. By the end of 2014, the total installed electricity generating capacity worldwide was nearly 6.142 TW (million MW) which only includes generation connected to local electricity grids.[15] In addition there is an unknown amount of heat and electricity consumed off-grid by isolated villages and industries. In 2014, the share of world energy consumption for electricity generation by source was coal at 40.8%, natural gas at 21.6%, nuclear at 10.6%, hydro at 16.4%, other sources (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, etc.) at 6.3% and oil at 4.3%. Coal and natural gas were the most used energy fuels for generating electricity. The world's electricity consumption was 18,608 TWh[citation needed] in 2012. This figure is about 18% smaller than the generated electricity, due to grid losses, storage losses, and self-consumption from power plants (gross generation). Cogeneration (CHP) power stations use some of the heat that is otherwise wasted for use in buildings or in industrial processes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worl...ity_generation

But this is just electricity. The goal is to replace all fossil fuels that power vehicles etc. 90 % of all power generation is from fossil fuels. If the thorium fuel cycle can be perfected we could invert that ratio where nuclear and renewables make up 90 percent of the power used.
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Old 5th May 2019, 11:31 AM   #117
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Um, can we agree to use standard terms?

W, as in watt, is an SI (or close enough) unit of power (not “w”). Which is energy per unit time. So a watt-hour (Wh in the Wikipedia article you cited) is a unit of energy.

Would you please re-post the main parts of your last two posts, using standard terms?

Thank you in advance.
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Old 5th May 2019, 12:06 PM   #118
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@JeanTate, might be helpful to point out what appears non-standard to you. I don't see anything non-standard other than isolated capitalization issues.
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Old 5th May 2019, 12:17 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
@JeanTate, might be helpful to point out what appears non-standard to you. I don't see anything non-standard other than isolated capitalization issues.
“2Tw a year”, “500Tw of new power a year”, and so on.

From WP: “total installed electricity generating capacity worldwide was nearly 6.142 TW”.

May I ask, how did you guess what the OP meant by “500Tw of new power a year”, say?
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Old 5th May 2019, 01:00 PM   #120
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He seems to be consistently talking about installed capacity but with numbers that don't make sense. My guess would be it's the numbers he's got confused.

I was just trying to save a round of "what's unclear?". I agree something is unclear.
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