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Old 16th September 2019, 02:05 AM   #3041
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yup.

There has been literally no effort to do anything else. This leads me to think that a no-deal Brexit and the associated turmoil is what the architects of Brexit had in mind all along and that the last three and a bit years have just been an exercise in trying to move the blame onto everyone else.

After all, if the architects of Brexit wanted anything other than a no-deal, they could have had the ERG vote in favour of Theresa May's deal and then moved the negotiations so as to get the kind of post-Brexit deal they thought ideal.

The real shame is that enough of the UK electorate have now been convinced that
  • Brexit is desirable/inevitable regardless of the type of Brexit
  • A no-deal Brexit would at worst be a slight inconvenience
  • The Labour Party are dangerous and must not form a government at all costs
  • Blame for a no-deal belongs somewhere else than squarely on the shoulders of the Brexiteers
I've seen it said that there will be some benefit for some people from No Deal. Something to do with stocks or something.

As you can tell, I know very little about this so can't say how credible this theory is or not, but I've definitely seen it said that it could be entirely deliberate because it would benefit a very few rich people.
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Old 16th September 2019, 02:21 AM   #3042
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
I'm reading that Johnson has likened himself to The Incredible Hulk - the angrier he gets the stronger he gets.

Christ on a pogo stick, how bad can this get?

https://www.theguardian.com/film/200...tionandfantasy

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”Hulk. Smash!" Yes. Hulk. Smash. Yes. Smash. Big Hulk smash. Smash cars. Buildings. Army tanks. Hulk not just smash. Hulk also go rarrr! Then smash again. Smash important, obviously.
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Old 16th September 2019, 02:27 AM   #3043
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I've seen it said that there will be some benefit for some people from No Deal. Something to do with stocks or something.

As you can tell, I know very little about this so can't say how credible this theory is or not, but I've definitely seen it said that it could be entirely deliberate because it would benefit a very few rich people.
Yes, a number of high profile Brexiteers, including Jacob Rees Mogg, have substantial interests in hedge funds. Hedge funds are investment funds which also take "bets" on the market and/or currencies. A lot of these hedge funds seem to be betting that the pound and UK stock markets will be going down in value over the next few months. The worse the effects of a no-deal Brexit, the further the pound and UK stock markets are likely to drop and the greater the return on those bets are likely to be. This is an example of the short-term benefits of a disorderly Brexit to a few rich individuals.

In the medium term there are some additional likely benefits. Many companies and/or individuals may find themselves in the situation that they need to dispose of assets in a hurry - and therefore below true market value. Rich people, especially those who have done rather nicely out of betting on the market going down, will be able to snap up those assets with a view to selling them on at a significant profit.

In the longer term, the UK economy will move to being a low-cost, low regulation, low-benefit economy competing with the developing world on price (rather than the developed world on quality and innovation). Many of those same rich people will benefit from an economy like this, because it tends to increase wealth inequality.

An ugly Brexit is likely to be gravy all the way for "vulture capitalists"
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Old 16th September 2019, 02:45 AM   #3044
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Quote:
“The EU know our position. Lots of the detail has been talked through at both technical and political level, and actually the framework, as I have just described it, is very clear.

“Of course, the nature of these negotiations is that there will be a tendency to try and rubbish things we put forward in order to exact further demands. We’re not going to get involved in that.”

Raab argued that the EU’s complaints about a lack of detail masked an unwillingness in Brussels to move on its own positions. “We’ve been clear on all of this in the talks, and we’ll continue to flesh out and be able to respond to any questions.

“But of course at some point the EU is going to have to put up it hands and say: ‘OK, we know that there’s the requirement for some pragmatism and flexibility to get this deal over the line.’”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-johnson-talks

Leavers can't just stop pushing these narratives of wishful thinking where it's up to the EU to be "flexible" and give into whatever the UK is offering, because not doing so would have negative consequences.

The backstop was Britain's idea of "solving" the Irish border issue and if they somehow object to their own ideas it's up to them to come up with another solution that does just that.

It's not the EU's responsibility to swallow whatever half-baked ideas the UK has hastily written down on a napkin just to come to an accord, nor is it the EU's responsibility to minimize the importance of the Irish border as if it was just an afterthought of no consequence.
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Old 16th September 2019, 03:24 AM   #3045
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Maybe Cummings isn’t nearly as smart as his reputation that’s been bolstered by his portrayal by Engelbert Humperdinck and been bought into by much of the media.
I doubt he is, but I think the C4 drama did actually hint that in the coda set at the "future" inquiry, where he refused to accept his theory - about what would happen after the referendum but didn't - was wrong.

Last edited by Information Analyst; 16th September 2019 at 03:39 AM.
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Old 16th September 2019, 04:39 AM   #3046
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Yes, but how much suffering before this happens?

My own country had a similar "Constitutional Mess" back in the 1860's, and it was surmounted, but at a horrendous cost ,and we are still feeling the effects today.
This does feel like a bit of lost cause give in, though. It is bringing up the idea that the civil war was a constitutional issue and really it wasn't the states rights issue the south's lost cause propaganda portrays it as. I mean they had already gotten it so that slavery was legal in all states by the time they had their fit over the rightful subjugation of the negro by the superior white race.
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Old 16th September 2019, 07:00 AM   #3047
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
The backstop was Britain's idea of "solving" the Irish border issue and if they somehow object to their own ideas it's up to them to come up with another solution that does just that.

It's not the EU's responsibility to swallow whatever half-baked ideas the UK has hastily written down on a napkin just to come to an accord, nor is it the EU's responsibility to minimize the importance of the Irish border as if it was just an afterthought of no consequence.
I thought I'd just pop in to look at what was going on here about Brexit. Much the same as anywhere else, I discover. I'm actually fed up of having to counteract this nonsense. So here goes ... THE BACKSTOP WAS NOT PROPOSED BY THE UK. Look here - from an article from RTE, not famous for being a British institution ...

"The backstop was born on 8 November 2017.
It entered the world weighing just 66 words, one bullet point of six at the bottom of a "working paper" circulated that morning by Michel Barnier's team to officials from the 27 member states. "
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Old 16th September 2019, 07:09 AM   #3048
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Originally Posted by mkg View Post
I thought I'd just pop in to look at what was going on here about Brexit. Much the same as anywhere else, I discover. I'm actually fed up of having to counteract this nonsense. So here goes ... THE BACKSTOP WAS NOT PROPOSED BY THE UK. Look here - from an article from RTE, not famous for being a British institution ...

"The backstop was born on 8 November 2017.
It entered the world weighing just 66 words, one bullet point of six at the bottom of a "working paper" circulated that morning by Michel Barnier's team to officials from the 27 member states. "
You should have read a little further:

'The bullet point read: "It consequently seems essential for the UK to commit to ensuring that a hard border on the island of Ireland is avoided, including by ensuring no emergence of regulatory divergence from those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which are (or may be in the future) necessary for meaningful North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement." '

The nature of the backstop is the UK's responsibility, and so far we've signally failed to come up with a workable solution.
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Old 16th September 2019, 07:27 AM   #3049
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Originally Posted by mkg View Post
I thought I'd just pop in to look at what was going on here about Brexit. Much the same as anywhere else, I discover. I'm actually fed up of having to counteract this nonsense. So here goes ... THE BACKSTOP WAS NOT PROPOSED BY THE UK. Look here - from an article from RTE, not famous for being a British institution ...

"The backstop was born on 8 November 2017.
It entered the world weighing just 66 words, one bullet point of six at the bottom of a "working paper" circulated that morning by Michel Barnier's team to officials from the 27 member states. "
I'm guessing that with only 18 posts, mkg isn't able to post links, so here it is:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/...tony-connelly/

What the article makes abundantly clear is that the idea of an all-UK backstop was indeed the UK's - the EU would have been perfectly happy with a backstop just involving the island of Ireland.
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Old 16th September 2019, 07:34 AM   #3050
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Originally Posted by mkg View Post
I thought I'd just pop in to look at what was going on here about Brexit. Much the same as anywhere else, I discover. I'm actually fed up of having to counteract this nonsense. So here goes ... THE BACKSTOP WAS NOT PROPOSED BY THE UK. Look here - from an article from RTE, not famous for being a British institution ...

"The backstop was born on 8 November 2017.
It entered the world weighing just 66 words, one bullet point of six at the bottom of a "working paper" circulated that morning by Michel Barnier's team to officials from the 27 member states. "
The article , if my skim reading is correct says the EU suggested a backstop with NI effectually remaining in the EU. The UK rejected that and amended the text so that the whole of the UK effectively remained in the EU. It was the UK proposal which made its way into the agreed paper.
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Old 16th September 2019, 07:36 AM   #3051
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Originally Posted by mkg View Post
I thought I'd just pop in to look at what was going on here about Brexit. Much the same as anywhere else, I discover. I'm actually fed up of having to counteract this nonsense. So here goes ... THE BACKSTOP WAS NOT PROPOSED BY THE UK. Look here - from an article from RTE, not famous for being a British institution ...

"The backstop was born on 8 November 2017.
It entered the world weighing just 66 words, one bullet point of six at the bottom of a "working paper" circulated that morning by Michel Barnier's team to officials from the 27 member states. "
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...e-eu-1.3761566
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Old 16th September 2019, 07:51 AM   #3052
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes, a number of high profile Brexiteers, including Jacob Rees Mogg, have substantial interests in hedge funds. Hedge funds are investment funds which also take "bets" on the market and/or currencies. A lot of these hedge funds seem to be betting that the pound and UK stock markets will be going down in value over the next few months. The worse the effects of a no-deal Brexit, the further the pound and UK stock markets are likely to drop and the greater the return on those bets are likely to be. This is an example of the short-term benefits of a disorderly Brexit to a few rich individuals.

In the medium term there are some additional likely benefits. Many companies and/or individuals may find themselves in the situation that they need to dispose of assets in a hurry - and therefore below true market value. Rich people, especially those who have done rather nicely out of betting on the market going down, will be able to snap up those assets with a view to selling them on at a significant profit.

In the longer term, the UK economy will move to being a low-cost, low regulation, low-benefit economy competing with the developing world on price (rather than the developed world on quality and innovation). Many of those same rich people will benefit from an economy like this, because it tends to increase wealth inequality.

An ugly Brexit is likely to be gravy all the way for "vulture capitalists"

Hedging isn't the sole preserve of the rich you know. If you import/export goods and you are worried about the pound value falling after 31 October even more drastically then you can buy a simple Forward Contract over the counter from your bank for as little as £30. This guarantees the money you receive or have to pay will be at today's rate even after 31 October.

A simple solution for businesses worried about value of assets is to sell the asset now at today's market value and simply take out a lease-back (Marks & Spencer did this) meaning you don't even have to move out but can pack up and leave whenever.

Going on holiday after 31 October and are worried about the uncertainty? Simple: buy your currency now, or hedge by buying half now and the rest later.
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Old 16th September 2019, 07:54 AM   #3053
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Johnson was soundly booed on his way in to and out of talks with Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, and he skipped out on the press conference afterwards. Bettel, OTOH, did not hold back during the conference - partly in his prepared statements, and especially in the Q&A afterwards: https://youtu.be/5Gb1Y1516Mc?t=1968

And, just in case you want the completely surprising headline - despite all his talk in the press, Johnson brought absolutely nothing new to the table.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/s...00063408545794

Quote:
My favourite episode of The Incredible Hulk is the one where a small group of people shouted too loudly so he ran away
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Old 16th September 2019, 07:54 AM   #3054
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-johnson-talks

Leavers can't just stop pushing these narratives of wishful thinking where it's up to the EU to be "flexible" and give into whatever the UK is offering, because not doing so would have negative consequences.

The backstop was Britain's idea of "solving" the Irish border issue and if they somehow object to their own ideas it's up to them to come up with another solution that does just that.

It's not the EU's responsibility to swallow whatever half-baked ideas the UK has hastily written down on a napkin Boris blurts out on a 'selfie' video just to come to an accord, nor is it the EU's responsibility to minimize the importance of the Irish border as if it was just an afterthought of no consequence.
FIFY
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Old 16th September 2019, 08:04 AM   #3055
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Johnson was soundly booed on his way in to and out of talks with Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, and he skipped out on the press conference afterwards. <snip>
Is Boris frit?
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Old 16th September 2019, 08:05 AM   #3056
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I'm severely disappointed by the antics of several members here. The backstop, quite clearly, was invented by the EU. It matters not what any party attempted to do with it at a later date - the concept came from the EU.
Still, par for the course - even amongst skeptics, I find. Vertical is the new horizontal.

Lothian - precisely to which 'agreed' paper would you be referring?

Last edited by mkg; 16th September 2019 at 08:08 AM.
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Old 16th September 2019, 08:22 AM   #3057
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
Johnson was soundly booed on his way in to and out of talks with Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel, and he skipped out on the press conference afterwards. Bettel, OTOH, did not hold back during the conference - partly in his prepared statements, and especially in the Q&A afterwards: https://youtu.be/5Gb1Y1516Mc?t=1968

And, just in case you want the completely surprising headline - despite all his talk in the press, Johnson brought absolutely nothing new to the table.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/s...00063408545794
From Badscience - I *really* wish I had thought of this one:

Originally Posted by liverpoolmiss
BREAKING: Boris Johnson manages not to tell a lie at a press conference
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Old 16th September 2019, 08:35 AM   #3058
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Hedging isn't the sole preserve of the rich you know. If you import/export goods and you are worried about the pound value falling after 31 October even more drastically then you can buy a simple Forward Contract over the counter from your bank for as little as £30. This guarantees the money you receive or have to pay will be at today's rate even after 31 October.

A simple solution for businesses worried about value of assets is to sell the asset now at today's market value and simply take out a lease-back (Marks & Spencer did this) meaning you don't even have to move out but can pack up and leave whenever.

Going on holiday after 31 October and are worried about the uncertainty? Simple: buy your currency now, or hedge by buying half now and the rest later.
Yes, functional hedging as you describe is pretty standard business practice.

What Rees-Mogg and his ilk are doing is speculative hedging, a horse of an entirely different colour.
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Old 16th September 2019, 08:37 AM   #3059
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EU makes offer to UK

UK makes counter-offer to EU

EU provisionally accepts counter-offer

conclusion: it's the EU's fault.

??

Plus, of course, the futility of being drawn into an argument about who's "fault" the backstop is as if the backstop is an idea to be ashamed of.
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Old 16th September 2019, 08:39 AM   #3060
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Originally Posted by mkg View Post
I'm severely disappointed by the antics of several members here. The backstop, quite clearly, was invented by the EU. It matters not what any party attempted to do with it at a later date - the concept came from the EU.
Still, par for the course - even amongst skeptics, I find. Vertical is the new horizontal.

Lothian - precisely to which 'agreed' paper would you be referring?
The 14 November 2018 " draft Agreement on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union" agreed by the UK Prime Minister and her negotiating team.

As far as I am aware when people talk about 'the backstop', it is the backstop in that agreement that they are talking about. In particular when Boris says "the backstop is unacceptable" That is the backstop I believe him to be referring to . Are you aware of another?

The backstop in that document, which is the is the only one I believe that prime ministers from all 28 Member states have endorsed, came from the UK'. It is currently the only deal on the table albeit it remains unratified.

It may well have been the EU that pointed out that there may need to be a back up to the UK's plan for arrangements post the end of the transition period (lets cross our fingers and hope that by Dec 2020 technology can tell us exactly what goods have crossed a 310 mile line that has no physical equipment or personnel).

The actual back up plan settled on is the British one. That said I am not sure why it matters or why you think it important.

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Old 16th September 2019, 08:41 AM   #3061
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes, functional hedging as you describe is pretty standard business practice.

What Rees-Mogg and his ilk are doing is speculative hedging, a horse of an entirely different colour.
Plus there's a considerable difference in scale between "I can mitigate the increase in cost of my vacation I have planned for next year to the tune of a few hundred" and "I can make literally millions by taking advantage of how desperate and insecure everyone else is."
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Old 16th September 2019, 09:19 AM   #3062
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I suspect this "Hulk" business might haunt Johnson rather like Rees-Mogg's lounging will haunt him
Attached Images
File Type: jpg hulk.jpg (40.0 KB, 12 views)
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Old 16th September 2019, 09:19 AM   #3063
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Originally Posted by mkg View Post
I thought I'd just pop in to look at what was going on here about Brexit.


Originally Posted by mkg View Post
Much the same as anywhere else, I discover.


Originally Posted by mkg View Post
I'm actually fed up of having to counteract this nonsense. So here goes ...


Originally Posted by mkg View Post
THE BACKSTOP WAS NOT PROPOSED BY THE UK.
Oh look, a Brexiteer lying again.
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Old 16th September 2019, 09:20 AM   #3064
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
You should have read a little further:
But that would contradict what s/he desperately wants to believe.
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Old 16th September 2019, 09:23 AM   #3065
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Originally Posted by mkg View Post
I'm severely disappointed by the antics of several members here.
Yes, it's terrible how people point out your pathetic lies.


Originally Posted by mkg View Post
The backstop, quite clearly, was invented by the EU.
Repeating the lie doesn't make it true.

Originally Posted by mkg View Post
It matters not what any party attempted to do with it at a later date - the concept came from the EU.
Wallpaper words and lies mixed.

Originally Posted by mkg View Post
Still, par for the course -
True, Brexiteers just can handle the truth.
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Old 16th September 2019, 10:26 AM   #3066
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm guessing that with only 18 posts, mkg isn't able to post links, so here it is:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/...tony-connelly/

What the article makes abundantly clear is that the idea of an all-UK backstop was indeed the UK's - the EU would have been perfectly happy with a backstop just involving the island of Ireland.
The article doesn't say anything like anything mkg claims either.

Brexiteers don't do reading or honesty.
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Old 16th September 2019, 01:25 PM   #3067
LondonJohn
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Hedging isn't the sole preserve of the rich you know. If you import/export goods and you are worried about the pound value falling after 31 October even more drastically then you can buy a simple Forward Contract over the counter from your bank for as little as £30. This guarantees the money you receive or have to pay will be at today's rate even after 31 October.

A simple solution for businesses worried about value of assets is to sell the asset now at today's market value and simply take out a lease-back (Marks & Spencer did this) meaning you don't even have to move out but can pack up and leave whenever.

Going on holiday after 31 October and are worried about the uncertainty? Simple: buy your currency now, or hedge by buying half now and the rest later.


"Hedge funds" and "hedging" are two entirely different concepts (and have been for around two decades now, albeit "hedge funds" did have their origins in hedging, way back when). Hedge funds are nothing more than funds which tend to take higher-risk, higher-reward speculative positions, relying on a mix of quant analysis and intuitive market & political research. They came to prominence as the near-exclusive preserve of wealthy private individuals as investment clients, but increasingly the "traditional" banks and institutional money managers have been placing funds under this sort of management as well, where their investment rules permit it of course.


(Note to Don: ALL discretionary investment funds take "bets" on the market and/or currencies. It's sort of the fundamental point of investment. I virtually guarantee that a significant portion of your pension fund or your car/home insurance premium is being used to "bet" on the market and/or currencies....)
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Old 16th September 2019, 01:43 PM   #3068
LondonJohn
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
The article doesn't say anything like anything mkg claims either.

Brexiteers don't do reading or honesty.

Uh, yeah it kind of does......


In any case, the NI/Ireland border is a 100% logically-intractable situation, if one wants the twin goals of a) the UK leaving the EU and b) the Good Friday (and subsequent) Agreement being honoured. Because:

1) Leaving the EU necessarily entails leaving the single market and customs union (otherwise it's very highly arguable that this doesn't constitute Brexit);

2) The GFA requires there to be no hard border between NI and Ireland, effectively in perpetuity;

3) There would therefore need to be, effectively in perpetuity, a de facto single market and customs union between NI and Ireland;

4) Therefore, at the very least, the NI part of the UK would effectively need to "half" remain in the EU in perpetuity;

5) Even if it were only NI which remained part of the single market and customs union, and the remainder of the UK were to do a "full" Brexit, this would necessarily entail a hard border between NI and the remainder of the UK, with customs checks and passport controls etc;

6) The only alternative to (5) would be for the whole of the UK to remain part of the single market and customs union, but this defeats (1); and

7) Both (5) and (4) above are in practice unworkable in any case.


So as far as I see it, the talks between the UK Govt and the EU can be as friendly and constructive as they like - and it can be any politician of any hue representing the UK Govt position: the NI/Ireland border situation cannot, and will not, ever be resolved within a Brexit scenario.

What I suggest this means in practice is that in effect the UK can now never leave the EU, so long as either a) the GFA stipulations remain in place, or b) Ireland remains within the EU.


So everyone, IMO, might just as well give up even trying now to make Brexit work. Of course the problem is that a largely-ignorant electorate was given this decision to make, and even a well-informed parliament might never have seen the giant bear trap that the NI/Ire border issue was going to create.

One enormous problem, indeed. And perhaps one that only ever has the chance of being solved (well, the least troublesome way of being solved, at least....) by means of a second referendum in which everyone had better pray the result turns out differently.........
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Old 16th September 2019, 01:50 PM   #3069
Samson
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Ladbrokes have another referendum becoming steadily more likely, and a no deal pretty unlikely. Reality is biting, I always thought Brexit would not happen.

Another UK EU Referendum before end 2020
Brexit Specials
2.50
UK to REVOKE Article 50 in 2019
Brexit Specials
3.75
UK to leave EU with no Brexit Deal before Nov 1st
Brexit Specials
4.00
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Old 16th September 2019, 02:05 PM   #3070
LondonJohn
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Ladbrokes have another referendum becoming steadily more likely, and a no deal pretty unlikely. Reality is biting, I always thought Brexit would not happen.

Another UK EU Referendum before end 2020
Brexit Specials
2.50
UK to REVOKE Article 50 in 2019
Brexit Specials
3.75
UK to leave EU with no Brexit Deal before Nov 1st
Brexit Specials
4.00


Well of course the odds of traditional bookies like Ladbrokes (and, for that matter, even the odds of betting exchanges) are largely predicated not on an analysis of the "factual" relative likelihood of events, but rather upon what betters' perceptions of the "factual" relative likelihood of events is.

But that aside, I would have thought that the smartest bet at this point (no such thing as a "smartest bet" on anything, but anyhow...) would easily be to back the "second referendum" option.

Because I simply cannot see the UK and EU - even, as I said, with the best will in the world on both sides and the hardest amount of effort - being able to solve this NI/Ireland border issue in a way that also effects Brexit for the UK. So even setting aside every single other potential sticking point, I don't see any way whatsoever in which the UK Govt will come back to parliament with any significant change to the current deal - let alone the UK Parliament ratifying such a deal. And without any form of resolution to the NI/Ire border issue, the UK Govt would automatically be breaking the promises made in the GFA if it went ahead and left the EU with no deal on 31st October (or on any future date).

So I simply do not believe that the UK Govt will enforce a no-deal Brexit. And I simply don't believe the UK Govt will ratify any form of deal - ever. That's a reasonably good example of a stalemate. And, as I said, one that can probably only ever get resolved to any degree of public satisfaction through a second referendum: one in which the majority is for "remain".
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Old 16th September 2019, 02:09 PM   #3071
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Interviewed Kuenssberg, Johnson twists and turns like a twisty-turning thing, refusing to say exactly how he is going to take the UK out of the EU with no deal on 31 October, despite the recently-passed law supposedly preventing that.

Can I be the first person to say, "last-minute Order in Council"?

Last edited by Information Analyst; 16th September 2019 at 02:21 PM.
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Old 16th September 2019, 02:13 PM   #3072
Samson
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Well of course the odds of traditional bookies like Ladbrokes (and, for that matter, even the odds of betting exchanges) are largely predicated not on an analysis of the "factual" relative likelihood of events, but rather upon what betters' perceptions of the "factual" relative likelihood of events is.

But that aside, I would have thought that the smartest bet at this point (no such thing as a "smartest bet" on anything, but anyhow...) would easily be to back the "second referendum" option.

Because I simply cannot see the UK and EU - even, as I said, with the best will in the world on both sides and the hardest amount of effort - being able to solve this NI/Ireland border issue in a way that also effects Brexit for the UK. So even setting aside every single other potential sticking point, I don't see any way whatsoever in which the UK Govt will come back to parliament with any significant change to the current deal - let alone the UK Parliament ratifying such a deal. And without any form of resolution to the NI/Ire border issue, the UK Govt would automatically be breaking the promises made in the GFA if it went ahead and left the EU with no deal on 31st October (or on any future date).

So I simply do not believe that the UK Govt will enforce a no-deal Brexit. And I simply don't believe the UK Govt will ratify any form of deal - ever. That's a reasonably good example of a stalemate. And, as I said, one that can probably only ever get resolved to any degree of public satisfaction through a second referendum: one in which the majority is for "remain".
Ironically I think this is best for Boris Johnson. He seems to be a lazy type of individual, not interested in difficult tasks. I find it incomprehensible that he has so much support, he presents as some kind of village idiot.
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Old 16th September 2019, 02:22 PM   #3073
LondonJohn
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Ironically I think this is best for Boris Johnson. He seems to be a lazy type of individual, not interested in difficult tasks. I find it incomprehensible that he has so much support, he presents as some kind of village idiot.


Well, I certainly don't hold a candle for Johnson, or for Brexit. But at the same time, I can understand how his "anti-politician" flavour of breezy optimism and his big-picture-thinking perception, coupled of course with his position on Brexit, would have found favour amongst sufficient of the Conservative Party members who ultimately voted him into the position of party leader (and by extension, PM).

And (as with Trump), I can also see how this sort of perception might appeal to almost all Brexit voters (whom, we cannot forget, (somehow) constituted over 17 million, and a majority of those voting, in 2016....) whose perception is of a parliament trying to frustrate Brexit "against the people's will".

None of those things make it right, of course, that Johnson should occupy his present position and apparent levels of approval. But I think they are probably the best explanation.
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Old 16th September 2019, 05:26 PM   #3074
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*Makes note to self. Boris is nothing like the Hulk*
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Old 16th September 2019, 05:32 PM   #3075
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
*Makes note to self. Boris is nothing like the Hulk*
The thing is, we have seen how no matter how outrageous, Trump’s comments never seemed to cost him anything. Will this also be true of Boris?
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Old 16th September 2019, 06:16 PM   #3076
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Boris, the Incredible Sulk.
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Old 16th September 2019, 10:25 PM   #3077
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
The 14 November 2018 " draft Agreement on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union" agreed by the UK Prime Minister and her negotiating team.

As far as I am aware when people talk about 'the backstop', it is the backstop in that agreement that they are talking about ... ....
Well, we are in agreement upon which backstop is the case in point. However, it was not originally contained in May's discussion document - it was inserted by the EU negotiators. The resulting document was then presented to Parliament and rejected three times.
Since this complete and utter rejection by the legally-constituted and ultimate authority upon the acceptance or dismissal of that document, there has been an insidious attempt to legitimise it (by, for instance, calling it an agreement). It was never an agreement, and Mrs May's original document contained no reference whatsoever to a backstop in any form. The entire concept of the backstop is an invention of the EU negotiators and its continued presence in negotiations (and, I have to say, public discussion) is a sham.
Shades of the Ministry of Truth come to mind.
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Old 16th September 2019, 10:41 PM   #3078
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
What I suggest this means in practice is that in effect the UK can now never leave the EU, so long as either a) the GFA stipulations remain in place, or b) Ireland remains within the EU.
The reunification of Ireland would also solve the problem.

Just sayin'.
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Old 16th September 2019, 10:46 PM   #3079
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Originally Posted by mkg View Post
Well, we are in agreement upon which backstop is the case in point. However, it was not originally contained in May's discussion document - it was inserted by the EU negotiators. The resulting document was then presented to Parliament and rejected three times.
Since this complete and utter rejection by the legally-constituted and ultimate authority upon the acceptance or dismissal of that document, there has been an insidious attempt to legitimise it (by, for instance, calling it an agreement). It was never an agreement, and Mrs May's original document contained no reference whatsoever to a backstop in any form. The entire concept of the backstop is an invention of the EU negotiators and its continued presence in negotiations (and, I have to say, public discussion) is a sham.
Shades of the Ministry of Truth come to mind.
Let's see if we can find where we agree rather than disagee. Which if the following do you agree with.

(1)The original agreement did not contain any provision as to what would happen with the Irish border should a new agreement be reached in the transition period.
(2) The EU suggested a backstop
(3) The UK rejected that backstop and suggested their own
(4) The EU agreed to the inclusion of the UK version
(5) May endorsed the agreement and presented the version with the UK backstop to parliament.
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Old 16th September 2019, 10:59 PM   #3080
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Uh, yeah it kind of does......


In any case, the NI/Ireland border is a 100% logically-intractable situation, if one wants the twin goals of a) the UK leaving the EU and b) the Good Friday (and subsequent) Agreement being honoured. Because:

1) Leaving the EU necessarily entails leaving the single market and customs union (otherwise it's very highly arguable that this doesn't constitute Brexit);
.........
There are countries outside the EU in the customs union and the single market. These options were widely discussed as potential future relationships by the members of the leave campaign. You are therefore wrong to argue that it wouldn't meet either the option on the referendum paper or even a looser definition.

As axiom 1 fails the conclusion is also wrong.
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