Continuation Brexit: Now What? The Perfect 10.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by abaddon

The Bank of England says you are heading for the biggest recession since 1706.

That is not a typo.

Think about that.

To be fair, the government's bungling of the response to Coronavirus is more responsible for that than Brexit - at least for the first year or so of the recession.

[catsmate]

Originally Posted by The Don

To be fair, the government's bungling of the response to Coronavirus is more responsible for that than Brexit - at least for the first year or so of the recession.

In 1706 the UK, oops sorry England, was at war with France.

Which suggests BuBu's next move....

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

FTFY

McHrozni

That makes more sense, I thought I'd read that we'd past the 'more in total' line some time ago.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

That makes more sense, I thought I'd read that we'd past the 'more in total' line some time ago.

It depends on how one does the calculation, and where one decides to start the clock running but if it's "lost GDP growth" then you're right that we've likely already passed it, but the economy isn't 10% smaller than it otherwise would have been - which is what would be required for it to be an annual figure.

[gypsyjackson]

Originally Posted by The Don

And yet the farmers voted en-masse for Brexit. I'm finding it difficult to drum up too much sympathy.

OTOH I am very concerned about food standards but I suppose hundreds of thousands of extra cases of food poisoning and a thousand extra deaths a year is a price worth paying for the blue passports it turns out we could have had all along if we were that bothered about it

I suppose the large farming companies will be bought off with generous subsidies and the small farms will just go out of business making second homes so much cheaper for the urban wealth creators

To be fair to the NFU, it supported Remain and encouraged its members to vote to stay. Not very successfully, I suppose! Minette (and Meurig Raymond before her) has consistently urged the Government to do a decent deal with the EU, and always warns of the consequences of not getting a deal at all.

But hard to disagree with what Captain Swoop says on the subject.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by The Don

It depends on how one does the calculation, and where one decides to start the clock running but if it's "lost GDP growth" then you're right that we've likely already passed it, but the economy isn't 10% smaller than it otherwise would have been - which is what would be required for it to be an annual figure.

But lost GDP growth, bureaucratic expansion, money spaffed on invisible borders, expensive (if uninformative) advertising schemes......?

[gypsyjackson]

Originally Posted by abaddon

The Bank of England says you are heading for the biggest recession since 1706.

That is not a typo.

Think about that.

I’ll have to look for that report, because that’s just before the South Sea Bubble, covers the Long and Great Depressions, and obviously both world wars, so you really hope it’s hyperbole.

Depressing.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

But lost GDP growth, bureaucratic expansion, money spaffed on invisible borders, expensive (if uninformative) advertising schemes......?

Compared to the lost GDP growth, the rest are just rounding errors. The bureaucratic expansion and invisible borders have cost a few million and the advertising is tens, maybe a couple of hundred million.

It's all depressing and pathetic but 3% off GDP is £65 billion - every single year.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by gypsyjackson

I’ll have to look for that report, because that’s just before the South Sea Bubble, covers the Long and Great Depressions, and obviously both world wars, so you really hope it’s hyperbole.

Depressing.

It's not

The UK economy is forecast to shrink by 30% or more in half a year, so close to 15% for the whole year.

By comparison:

South Sea Bubble - <10% contraction
WW1 - 7% contraction
WW2 - < 5%

https://www.ft.com/content/734e604b-...c-19e8b22dad3c

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by The Don

It depends on how one does the calculation, and where one decides to start the clock running but if it's "lost GDP growth" then you're right that we've likely already passed it, but the economy isn't 10% smaller than it otherwise would have been - which is what would be required for it to be an annual figure.

True. It's not there yet but it's coming close like a driving train.

Doubly so if you count some of Covid-19 devastation in Britain as due to Brexit. This is impossible to separate with any degree of fairness but it's safe to say that without having to deal with Brexit, Britain would likely be better prepared for the epidemic and better able to take advantage of the common European policies.

If for no other reason then because someone more competent than BJ would likely be PM. This is not difficult to imagine, most farm animals would do better.

McHrozni

[Captain_Swoop]

Just when you thought the current crop of Conservatives was unprecedentedly awful, Norman Tebbit emerges from the crypt to call Hitler a lefty.

And I hammered that stake in really hard.
I’ll never shop at Whitby B&Q again

[GlennB]

More tech wizardry from our most excellent government -

"The UK government’s plan to invest hundreds of millions of pounds in a satellite broadband company has been described as “nonsensical” by experts, who say the company doesn’t even make the right type of satellite the country needs after Brexit.

The investment in OneWeb, first reported on Thursday night, is intended to mitigate against the UK losing access to the EU’s Galileo satellite navigation system.

But OneWeb – in which the UK will own a 20% stake following the investment – currently operates a completely different type of satellite network from that typically used to run such navigation systems."

[Captain_Swoop]

Didn't they just file for bankruptcy in the US?

[GlennB]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Didn't they just file for bankruptcy in the US?

The UK government? Wouldn't surprise me.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by GlennB

The UK government? Wouldn't surprise me.

They're awaiting the hostile takeover.

[abaddon]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Didn't they just file for bankruptcy in the US?

Yes.

But this is the same british government that invested in a shipping company that not only had no ships, but no port rights for the imaginary ships.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by abaddon

Yes.

But this is the same british government that invested in a shipping company that not only had no ships, but no port rights for the imaginary ships.

And went, for PPE, directly to a company that doesn't produce PPE ( and had an asset sheet that would just about cover a small car)

[Captain_Swoop]

THE UK Government has said that it will not align with EU chemicals policy, instead bringing in its own controversial system.

Quote:

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has confirmed that the UK will implement its own version of the EU chemical regulatory system, REACH, at the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December. The UK is still operating under EU REACH until then, but has no say on the regulations. Despite calls from industry to align with the European regulatory system, the UK Government will implement a UK REACH run by Defra and the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), replacing the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). The plans for UK REACH have previously been called “vague and insufficient”.

Quote:

Government may be planning to move to a weaker US-style system which would allow chemicals banned by the EU to be used in the UK.

https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/...micals-agency/

[a_unique_person]

More paperwork and conflicting standards.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by a_unique_person

More paperwork and conflicting standards.

All of which will tend to make UK products less attractive.

[Captain_Swoop]

Cummings will announce an overhaul of the Cabinet Office and No 10 next Monday.

Quote:

The adviser has said his intention was to create a “smaller, more focused and more elite centre”, but his critics will suspect an effort to scapegoat the civil service

Dominic Cummings told political aides that a “hard rain is coming” after detailing the shortcomings of an “incoherent” Cabinet Office

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/h...ings-gcq79vcl0

Since when was it the job of an 'advisor' to make announcement on these things?
When did it become his job to re arrange the Civil Service?
When did we elect him?

[gypsyjackson]

I thought the elites were the bad guys.

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Brexit is on course to cost the UK more per year than its combined total of payments to the European Union budget over the past 47 years.

FTFY

McHrozni

Well, yeah.

But you can't put a price tag on Freedomdumb.

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

True. It's not there yet but it's coming close like a driving train.

Doubly so if you count some of Covid-19 devastation in Britain as due to Brexit. This is impossible to separate with any degree of fairness but it's safe to say that without having to deal with Brexit, Britain would likely be better prepared for the epidemic and better able to take advantage of the common European policies.

If for no other reason then because someone more competent than BJ would likely be PM. This is not difficult to imagine, most farm animals would do better.

McHrozni

An analogy with legs.

It takes a loonngg time to stop a train. Under the best of conditions.

[The Don]

The UK's top civil servant is resigning:

Quote:

The UK's top civil servant, Sir Mark Sedwill, has confirmed he plans to stand down from the role in September.

In a letter to Boris Johnson, he said it was the right time to go as the government moved to the next phase of its coronavirus recovery plan.

His exit follows reports of tensions between him and senior members of Boris Johnson's team.

The senior civil servants' union, the FDA, said Sir Mark had been undermined in a "cowardly" way.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53210773

Many commentators are saying that Dominic Cummings is behind this as the first step of "gutting" the civil service to:

• Make it smaller and replace parts of its function with unaccountable "advisors" (like Dominic Cummings)
• De-skill the civil service to make it easier for politicians to force through change without experts being there to point out the flaws in those changes
• Make it ardently pro-Brexit

IMO it doesn't matter how enthusiastic someone is about Brexit, it doesn't change the fact that a no-deal Brexit followed by a disastrous US trade deal is going to be a fiasco.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by quadraginta

An analogy with legs.

It takes a loonngg time to stop a train. Under the best of conditions.

Yes, and anyone who's ever been in front of one can tell you how terrifying they suddenly become.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by quadraginta

An analogy with legs.

It takes a loonngg time to stop a train. Under the best of conditions.

Well, that depends. The train can be stopped in a very short order.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

McHrozni

[quadraginta]

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Well, that depends. The train can be stopped in a very short order.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.

I AGREE

McHrozni

Lots of neat collisions.

But none of the trains seemed to stop all that quickly. Maybe a bit more than if they stayed on the tracks and stopped under their own power, but not all that much more.

[Trebuchet]

Dear truck drivers: Those crossing gate arms are made of wood. You are in a big truck. Drive the heck on through it!
Lots of good Brexit representations in that video, of course, to get back to the topic at hand.

[McHrozni]

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

Lots of good Brexit representations in that video

That was the main point, yes.

McHrozni

[3point14]

Couple living in France shocked they can't just stay there after brexit.

Decide a 'deal' with the local mayor is the best option...

https://threader.app/thread/1277505330885386240

[Wudang]

Thinking of some people I encountered on "booze cruises" to France when I lived in Portsmouth I quite believe this. I still recall the couple who were furious that people in Cherbourg spoke French. Apparently that was "stupid".

[GlennB]

Originally Posted by 3point14

Couple living in France shocked they can't just stay there after brexit.

Decide a 'deal' with the local mayor is the best option...

https://threader.app/thread/1277505330885386240

Magnificent

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by 3point14

Couple living in France shocked they can't just stay there after brexit.

Decide a 'deal' with the local mayor is the best option...

https://threader.app/thread/1277505330885386240

I bet there's thousands of Brexit voting ex-pats just starting to realise the same thing. I honestly don't have it in me to feel sympathy for them.

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by 3point14

Couple living in France shocked they can't just stay there after brexit.

Decide a 'deal' with the local mayor is the best option...

https://threader.app/thread/1277505330885386240

That's lovely. I can't wait to read further developments when the son arrives.

[GlennB]

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

I bet there's thousands of Brexit voting ex-pats just starting to realise the same thing. I honestly don't have it in me to feel sympathy for them.

We subscribe to a few expat forums and YT groups. You simply wouldn't believe the number of Brit expats, some admitted Brexit voters, who have been taken by surprise by the whole business and are suddenly asking for advice. Wondering why they can't travel freely to and fro ... how they can acquire residency rights when they have never bothered to apply for those rights ... wondering how they can gain Greek NHS rights or fix their totally neglected tax affairs.

Wankers. It's hard to feel any sympathy.

[ponderingturtle]

Originally Posted by GlennB

We subscribe to a few expat forums and YT groups. You simply wouldn't believe the number of Brit expats, some admitted Brexit voters, who have been taken by surprise by the whole business and are suddenly asking for advice. Wondering why they can't travel freely to and fro ... how they can acquire residency rights when they have never bothered to apply for those rights ... wondering how they can gain Greek NHS rights or fix their totally neglected tax affairs.

Wankers. It's hard to feel any sympathy.

But the promise of leave was all of the benefits and none of the costs of EU membership. How could anyone have known that suddenly free travel would end? Aside from anyone paying the least bit of attention.

[3point14]

Originally Posted by GlennB

We subscribe to a few expat forums and YT groups. You simply wouldn't believe the number of Brit expats, some admitted Brexit voters, who have been taken by surprise by the whole business and are suddenly asking for advice. Wondering why they can't travel freely to and fro ... how they can acquire residency rights when they have never bothered to apply for those rights ... wondering how they can gain Greek NHS rights or fix their totally neglected tax affairs.

Wankers. It's hard to feel any sympathy.

I'm torn, to be honest.

Yes, zero awareness on their side, but they were lied to by politicians and - and this is the kicker - the combined might of the UK press corps.

I know 'don't trust a politician' is a reasonable touchstone, but trusting a newspaper isn't really, on the face of it, the daftest propostion. Until you look a little further afield.

People shouldn't have had to go hunting outside of the mainstream press for accurate information about the biggest political decision of their lives. But, if you knew nothing to start with (not unresonable) then reading what are nominaly respectable newspapers would not have provided one with all the facts to make an informed decision.

[Tolls]

Originally Posted by 3point14

I'm torn, to be honest.

Yes, zero awareness on their side, but they were lied to by politicians and - and this is the kicker - the combined might of the UK press corps.

No.
There were plenty of loud voices opposing this.
That they chose to go with the ones that confirmed their exceptionalist outlook is all down on them.

All it would have taken is a few moments of thought about the whole thing to realise leaving the EU meant leaving the ******* EU.

[P.J. Denyer]

Originally Posted by 3point14

I'm torn, to be honest.

Yes, zero awareness on their side, but they were lied to by politicians and - and this is the kicker - the combined might of the UK press corps.

I know 'don't trust a politician' is a reasonable touchstone, but trusting a newspaper isn't really, on the face of it, the daftest propostion. Until you look a little further afield.

People shouldn't have had to go hunting outside of the mainstream press for accurate information about the biggest political decision of their lives. But, if you knew nothing to start with (not unresonable) then reading what are nominaly respectable newspapers would not have provided one with all the facts to make an informed decision.

I'm really fed up with the way "don't trust politicians/all politicians lie" is being used these days (Please note, I'm not saying you're using it this way), it's used as an excuse, both for their lying, and to justify there being no consequences to them for lying, and to shift the blame from the liars to the lied to. Politicians need to face consequences for lying (while accepting opinion, that people make mistakes and that everyone will seek to present facts in a way that benefit themselves, I'm referring to verifiable lies), rather than hoping the electorate will put the time and effort into fact checking everything they say (despite most of the newspapers they read going along with the lies).