Continuation The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 6

[pzkpfw]

Saw this on Al Jazeera this morning, also now on CNN : "US finalizing plans to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine, US officials say"

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/24/p...ine/index.html

Quote:

The UK has already announced it will send 12 of their Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, crossing what had previously appeared to be a red line for the US and its European allies. A US announcement it is sending tanks would increase the pressure on Germany as it decides whether to authorize a transfer of Leopards. There are believed be around 2,000 in Europe and Poland on Tuesday formally asked Berlin to approve a transfer of some its Leopards to Ukraine.

So Leopards soon too, no?


Edit: yes!

[SpitfireIX]

From CNN, about 15 minutes ago:

Germany set to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Der Spiegel reports

Germany is set to send its sought-after Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to help bolster the country’s war effort, Der Spiegel reported on Tuesday evening, attributing to unnamed sources. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to deliver the battle tanks following “months of debate,” according to the German news outlet’s exclusive report.

The German parliament is due to debate the contentious issue on Wednesday morning. Deciding to send them would be a landmark moment in the West’s support for Kyiv that follows days of intense pressure on Berlin from some of its NATO partners. . . .

The report comes shortly after US officials revealed on Tuesday that the Biden administration is finalizing plans to send US-made tanks to Ukraine. Germany had indicated to the US last week that it would not send its Leopard tanks unless the US also agreed to send its own M1 Abrams tanks.

[lobosrul5]

Just saw this article posted on reddit.

https://www.20min.ch/story/kommissio...n-484109445824

Switzerland is starting the process to change their re-export laws to allow Swiss made munitions to go to Ukraine.

Wow, rumors of Abrams to Ukraine, then bam Germany and Switzerland change their tune almost immediately!

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Actually Germany sending tanks has been in the news here in the Netherlands for the past day or two, so I suspect they just reached an agreement with the US to both send tanks.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by SpitfireIX

From CNN, about 15 minutes ago:

Germany set to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Der Spiegel reports

Germany is set to send its sought-after Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to help bolster the country’s war effort, Der Spiegel reported on Tuesday evening, attributing to unnamed sources. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to deliver the battle tanks following “months of debate,” according to the German news outlet’s exclusive report.

The German parliament is due to debate the contentious issue on Wednesday morning. Deciding to send them would be a landmark moment in the West’s support for Kyiv that follows days of intense pressure on Berlin from some of its NATO partners. . . .

The report comes shortly after US officials revealed on Tuesday that the Biden administration is finalizing plans to send US-made tanks to Ukraine. Germany had indicated to the US last week that it would not send its Leopard tanks unless the US also agreed to send its own M1 Abrams tanks.

My cheer at this news is tempered by the fact that it still isn't official. This is some Zeno's tank shipment shenanigans. Each new announcement covers half the remaining distance to Actually Shipping Some Tanks. I'll believe it's happening when it happens. Meanwhile my dearest wish is for everyone involved to just STFU and make it happen already.

[dudalb]

Germany apparently will send Leopards to Ukraine.
Waiting to see what the Russian response will be.

[dudalb]

Someone joked the way things are going with Russia and it's tank supply, they will try to get the British War Museum to send back that T-34 they have on display....

[lobosrul5]

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/sta...05965118537732

Mart Hertling on the challenges of getting the Abrams, and other western MBT's, operational in Ukraine. Don't expect to see any next week.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/sta...05965118537732

Mart Hertling on the challenges of getting the Abrams, and other western MBT's, operational in Ukraine. Don't expect to see any next week.

It's another Russian red line that is being crossed, and with Russia backing down

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/sta...05965118537732

Mart Hertling on the challenges of getting the Abrams, and other western MBT's, operational in Ukraine. Don't expect to see any next week.

When I was in the US Army, the take on the Abrams was it many ways it was a wonderful tank, but maintainece could be a real titch.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

It's another Russian red line that is being crossed, and with Russia backing down

Question is what Russia could in response that they are not already doing.
The use of chemical warfare , maybe, but they would be crossing a huge line there.
But that report that US intelligence is pretty sure those embassy attacks in Spain were done at the direct order of the Russian Government is worrying.
One step might be a terrorist for hire attack in the US Proper.

[arthwollipot]

Well, coming into the spring with the ground hardening up is the right time to be deploying heavy armour. Given what Russia seems to be able to counter it with, it might just turn the tide.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by arthwollipot

Well, coming into the spring with the ground hardening up is the right time to be deploying heavy armour. Given what Russia seems to be able to counter it with, it might just turn the tide.

Problem is the retraining and logistic network you need for the new tanks will probably not be ready by the start of spring. Might be a early summer offensive.

[arthwollipot]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Problem is the retraining and logistic network you need for the new tanks will probably not be ready by the start of spring. Might be a early summer offensive.

That's true. MBTs are notoriously resource intensive.

[crescent]

It sounds like the Abrams tanks won't arrive until the fall. Something about the methods of procurement, they'll be more or less "made" to order rather that turning over existing ready-to-go tanks.

By "made" I mean that the basic tanks already exist, but will be rebuilt. That is the way with Abrams tanks, they don't build truly new ones anymore but the full rebuilds are equivalent to new.

But this clears the logjam so that the Leopards can be turned over to Ukraine. Not just those directly from Germany, but the others owned by various other nations. Poland and the other countries will turn those over much sooner, and they're more fuel efficient and less maintenance intensive than the American tanks.

Plus British Challenger tanks and French Leclerc.

I'm thinking this may be in response to recent Russian gains in Donbass as well as Russian escalation via the targeting of civilian apartment blocks.

ETA, WAPO article: U.S. to give Ukraine advanced M1 tanks

Quote:

The Abramses are expected to be ordered from manufacturers, rather than transferred from existing U.S. stocks, and the main usefulness in announcing them now appeared designed to break a logjam with the Germans.

[SpitfireIX]

It's because they want to give Ukraine the export version, so the ones with the latest tech don't fall into Russian hands.

[BrettM]

Originally Posted by crescent

It sounds like the Abrams tanks won't arrive until the fall.

So another 6 months from now. The U.S. expects the war to drag on for a long time. Maybe they are hoping that the war would have been resolved before they need to deliver the tanks.

[jeremyp]

Originally Posted by BrettM

So another 6 months from now. The U.S. expects the war to drag on for a long time. Maybe they are hoping that the war would have been resolved before they need to deliver the tanks.

I think the Americans are only sending M1s because Germany was dragging its feet over the Leopard 2. Germany was saying “we will send our tanks, but only if the USA sends theirs”.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Question is what Russia could in response that they are not already doing.
The use of chemical warfare , maybe, but they would be crossing a huge line there.
But that report that US intelligence is pretty sure those embassy attacks in Spain were done at the direct order of the Russian Government is worrying.
One step might be a terrorist for hire attack in the US Proper.

As I have said before, Russia has been waging an undeclared hybrid war against the West since the early 2000s.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GRU_Unit_29155

Quote:

Unit 29155 was linked by the investigative Bellingcat website to the attempted assassinations of Bulgarian arms dealer Emilian Gebrev in April 2015 and the former GRU Colonel Sergei Skripal in March 2018, both possibly overseen by the same agent.[10] According to Ben Macintyre in the London Times in December 2019, the unit is believed to be responsible for a destabilisation campaign in Moldova and a failed pro-Serbian coup plot in Montenegro in 2016 including an attempt to assassinate the Prime Minister Milo Đukanović and occupy the parliament building by force.[11][12] Russia has denied all accusations.[13]

Andrej Babiš, the prime minister of the Czech Republic, announced on 17 April 2021 that Unit 29155 was behind the 2014 Vrbětice ammunition warehouses explosions.[14] Czech police seek information from the public on two suspects: Alexander Mishkin (aka Alexander Petrov), Anatoliy Chepiga (aka Ruslan Boshirov).[15] These are the same men identified by Bellingcat in the Skripal poisoning case.[16]

Terrorist bombing of a NATO country, use of chemical weapons in a NATO city where many civilians could have been exposed, cyberattacks on Estonia. Abduction of an Estonian from across the border

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eston_Kohver.

Quote:

Kohver was abducted on 5 September 2014 at gunpoint from the Estonian side of the border by Russians using a smoke grenade and radio jammers. Russia claims that Kohver had crossed the border, and had €5,000, a pistol, "special equipment to carry out covert recording", and "materials that seem to be assignments for an intelligence-gathering mission".[4] The Estonian Internal Security Service confirmed that Kohver was carrying his service pistol, cash and recording equipment in his task of investigating cross border crime and smuggling.[5] He was due to meet a possible informant on the border as part of the investigation, but instead walked into a trap set up by the FSB.[6] The incident occurred about 8 km north of the border crossing at Luhamaa, in a secluded and forested area near the village of Miikse. The defense lawyer appointed by the Russian state to represent Eston Kohver claims that the FSB has thorough video recordings on Kohver crossing the border.[7]

Which basically seems to be the FSB protecting their criminal activities as opposed to anything more targeted, except that it furthered Russian foreign policy of pressure on the Baltic States

Interference in elections.

Other poisonings and shootings in Germany.

[timhau]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Someone joked the way things are going with Russia and it's tank supply, they will try to get the British War Museum to send back that T-34 they have on display....

Why? They've already destroyed more Western tanks in Ukraine than anyone's ever sent. I read it on RT.com.

[JoeMorgue]

While I'm finding it hilarious, the more Russia becomes an international joke the more nervous part of me is.

I've opined since the start of this conflict that Russia has largely been skating by as a major player on the international scene by just hoping other countries assume it's still the same powerhouse the Soviet Union was and just doing its best to not do anything that contradicts that, but under the surface its been a paper tiger for a long time and conflict has shattered that illusion.

And I've said there is absolutely no way that NATO, the US, the European Union, the major powers of Europe, China, India, and probably others are just not noticing how hard the mighty Russia is having with a country that it on paper it should have been able to drive through like wet tissue paper.

The problem is bluster is all Russia has had for almost a generation now. They have natural resources to offer but not enough for them Empire they still obviously want to be. Russia will not be satisfied being a minor regional power.

My fear is Russia is going to think it has to do some dramatic.

[Jungle Jim]

Interesting article on the difficulty on fielding three different types of Main Battle Tanks - https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...ng-for-Ukraine

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

While I'm finding it hilarious, the more Russia becomes an international joke the more nervous part of me is.

I've opined since the start of this conflict that Russia has largely been skating by as a major player on the international scene by just hoping other countries assume it's still the same powerhouse the Soviet Union was and just doing its best to not do anything that contradicts that, but under the surface its been a paper tiger for a long time and conflict has shattered that illusion.

And I've said there is absolutely no way that NATO, the US, the European Union, the major powers of Europe, China, India, and probably others are just not noticing how hard the mighty Russia is having with a country that it on paper it should have been able to drive through like wet tissue paper.

The problem is bluster is all Russia has had for almost a generation now. They have natural resources to offer but not enough for them Empire they still obviously want to be. Russia will not be satisfied being a minor regional power.

My fear is Russia is going to think it has to do some dramatic.

If you mean nukes... I don't think we're headed that way. I believe if Putin was really a megalomaniacal crazy person with absolute power they would've already been launched. I think that first of all, he's scared. He doesn't want to die and an escalating nuclear war will likely be the end of him. And that he doesn't have absolute power. He has to keep a cabal of very wealth very influential people in Russia happy. They don't want WW3.

I really hope to not be proven wrong. If Ukraine keeps their will to fight, and with all the equipment they are getting, I think by late summer they will have taken back all of Ukraine except possibly Crimea. Its almost inevitable.

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

If you mean nukes... I don't think we're headed that way.

I see Nukes as unlikely although I'm wary of taking them completely off the table as to what we should be worried about.

And, as I've said before, this discussion seems to routinely forget that nukes are not the only WMD. Gas, chemical, nerve, and biological agents exists as well.

But at the end of the day I'm more concerned about simple, old fashioned slaughter. Russia still has enough power to do that if it wishes, I fear.

Russia right now is the big tough macho dumbass guy who started a fight in a bar but when he went to swing the first punch, a punch he had already written the story in his head would be a knockout, they slipped on a puddle of spilled beer and face planted into the jukebox and they guy they were picking the fight in got in several good punches, not enough to win but enough so a quick and easy one punch knockout is no off the table and everyone in the bar is now laughing at him and his entire mental self image is being the big touch guy that nobody messes with and that's gone and he's seeing red and hearing the "Kill Bill Siren" in his head and... he's gonna do SOMETHING to try and get that tough guy image back.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

I see Nukes as unlikely although I'm wary of taking them completely off the table as to what we should be worried about.

And, as I've said before, this discussion seems to routinely forget that nukes are not the only WMD. Gas, chemical, nerve, and biological agents exists as well.

But at the end of the day I'm more concerned about simple, old fashioned slaughter. Russia still has enough power to do that if it wishes, I fear.

Russia right now is the big tough macho dumbass guy who started a fight in a bar but when he went to swing the first punch, a punch he had already written the story in his head would be a knockout, they slipped on a puddle of spilled beer and face planted into the jukebox and they guy they were picking the fight in got in several good punches, not enough to win but enough so a quick and easy one punch knockout is no off the table and everyone in the bar is now laughing at him and his entire mental self image is being the big touch guy that nobody messes with and that's gone and he's seeing red and hearing the "Kill Bill Siren" in his head and... he's gonna do SOMETHING to try and get that tough guy image back.

Gas as a tactical weapon will backfire on them. Its likely that the Ukranians have better gas masks than the Russians. I really really hope that theres backchannel communications from the west telling Russia that if they do things like poison the Ukranians water supply with bio weapons we will give Ukraine long range missiles, F-16's... B-52... whatever it takes for them to strike back into the heart of Russia. Thats just a heartbeat away from WW3 though.

ETA: I kept hearing pretty strong rumors that Russia was going to call up a massive amount of men, maybe 500,000 to a million. That now seems like it isn't going to happen. Are they afraid of a revolt if they do, does Putin know this is now an unwinnable war?? I'm not sure.

[JoeMorgue]

The problem is Russia can lose 10 people to kill every 1 Ukranian and still wipe them off the face of the Earth.

Russia can have it's tactics "Backfire" on them a lot and still come out on top.

[JoeMorgue]

ETA: It's a rather crude metaphor for such a serious real war issue, but it's the "Die Hard Villain" problem. What do you do when how the most sane and logical way to react to something is an inherent part of the bad guy's plan?

Hans Gruber couldn't open the vault, so he pretended to be a terrorist because he knew cutting the power to the building was part of the FBI's anti-terrorist checklist.

Russia is doing a global politics version of that right now. It knows people in the West are going to be playing the "Oh don't fight back too hard or we might start WW3" card. Russia is COUNTING on that being what keeps NATO out of the fight.

We can't just blunder into actually doing that, but we also can't let Russia hold that over our head.

Some things go beyond law, go beyond politics, go beyond base morality and into the simple, unavoidable, unarguable realm of pure cause and effect and one of the most basic and universal cases of that is "An entity isn't going to stop doing what it is doing until it has reason to stop."

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

The problem is Russia can lose 10 people to kill every 1 Ukranian and still wipe them off the face of the Earth.

Russia can have it's tactics "Backfire" on them a lot and still come out on top.

I don't think so. Russia has a population of just about 3.25x Ukraine's. The more drafts Russia does the more guys are going to run away. The more bodybags the less popular the war becomes. And the more guys they need to put in-between the front and the rear. If it really goes down to nothing but 155mm artillery, a few old BMP's, and guys with AK-74/47's then their K: D ratio will become worse than 1:10 anyways.

Meanwhile in Ukraine its a war of survival.

Quote:

Russia is doing a global politics version of that right now. It knows people in the West are going to be playing the "Oh don't fight back too hard or we might start WW3" card. Russia is COUNTING on that being what keeps NATO out of the fight.

I thought that way too. But MBT's from a number of western allies seems to signal: "OK Russia, we called your bluff if you aren't going to start WW3 over MBT's, you aint gonna".

[JoeMorgue]

Regardless I don't see this war ending without something/someone taking Putin out of the equation.

And as a corollary to my "Other countries are undoubtablely noticing the rough time Russia is having" there are also countries watching with very keen interest seeing how much Russia will be able to get away with before the end, whatever that might be, comes.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

If you mean nukes... I don't think we're headed that way. I believe if Putin was really a megalomaniacal crazy person with absolute power they would've already been launched. I think that first of all, he's scared. He doesn't want to die and an escalating nuclear war will likely be the end of him. And that he doesn't have absolute power. He has to keep a cabal of very wealth very influential people in Russia happy. They don't want WW3.

I certainly hope that's true. But I'd still put the odds of Russian use of tactical nukes as non-negligible. If they nuked Ukrainian front-line positions, NATO isn't going to nuke Moscow in response. We might step up sanctions, we might step up support to Ukraine, but we wouldn't initiate WW3 over that. So while it's still a huge risk to him to escalate, it's also still possible that he concludes the risk is worthwhile.

[lobosrul5]

Last couple of tweets on https://twitter.com/DefenceU are their daily Russian casualty claims... and a series of pictures pretty much proving the APC and tank kills. Just in case anyone wonders if they are just pulling figures out of their asses.

[dudalb]

My main concern is that Putin might order and finaince more terorist attacks in the West, like he did in SPain.

[dudalb]

And from visiting some mesage boards, the Putin Trolls are working overtime.

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by dudalb

And from visiting some mesage boards, the Putin Trolls are working overtime.

I get the impression that indicates they're upset about something. Tanks I guess.

[lobosrul5]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

I get the impression that indicates they're upset about something. Tanks I guess.

Tankies upset by tanks?

[Michel H]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

I get the impression that indicates they're upset about something. Tanks I guess.

Podolyak, Zelensky's main advisor, is reporting tonight that Russia is attacking Ukraine again, using drones and missiles:

Quote:

Evening. Russia attacks Ukraine with new drones and missiles. Only one question. For what? Destroy another house? Kill more people and animals? Leave more children orphaned? And all just to "congratulate" @ZelenskyyUa,
reminding of their terrorist nature?... Nobody has forgotten.

(https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/statu...54196696403969)

It's Zelensky's birthday today (January 25).

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

The problem is Russia can lose 10 people to kill every 1 Ukranian and still wipe them off the face of the Earth.

Russia can have it's tactics "Backfire" on them a lot and still come out on top.

Russia has three times the population of Ukraine. It is not the USSR.

The Soviet Union also had far stronger control of information.

There are pressures within Russia. The regime cannot afford to draft whole groups of seemingly eligible potential draftees. Including probably much of Moscow and St Petersburg.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Russia has three times the population of Ukraine. It is not the USSR.

The Soviet Union also had far stronger control of information.

There are pressures within Russia. The regime cannot afford to draft whole groups of seemingly eligible potential draftees. Including probably much of Moscow and St Petersburg.

I think some in Putin's government..though not Putin enough, are having bad dreams about 1917 repeating itself.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by jimbob

Russia has three times the population of Ukraine. It is not the USSR.

The Soviet Union also had far stronger control of information.

It seems like a large part of the problem for Russia, these days, is that historically a lot of their strength actually came from Ukraine. Certainly their Soviet-era strengths in population, productivity, and innovation all included substantial contributions from Ukraine.

A significant chunk of the weight of the Soviet army, that was supposed to land with crushing force on Western Europe, was Ukrainian. Now Russia is trying to deliver a crushing blow without that Ukrainian mass, against that Ukrainian mass.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by dudalb

My main concern is that Putin might order and finaince more terorist attacks in the West, like he did in SPain.

Like the Kremlin has been since 2014.