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Tags Convection , meteorology , storms

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Old 2nd November 2018, 10:58 AM   #1
jimmcginn
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Post Are You Skeptical of Meteorology's Convection Model of Storms and Atmospheric Flow?

Are You skeptical of meteorology's convection model of storm theory?

Yes, No?

If yes how did you come to be skeptical? Did you notice something that didn't make sense?

If No why not? Have you studied the topic? College? Individually?

What parts of it do you think are perfectly reasonable/sound and what parts do you feel unsure about?

Here are some subtopics that you might be able to get you teeth into:

Do you believe warm, moist air is lighter than cool, dry air?

Do you believe dry layers act as a cap to upwelling of lighter, moist air?

Do you believe release of latent heat from water describes the origins of the cold gusty winds of storms?

Are meteorologists being honest with us that they have actually measured, tested this theory or do you think they are pretending to understand and relying on the general confusion of the populace to skirt the issues?

Do you think they have a good understanding of severe weather. For example, did you know that tornadoes are considered by many to be a mystery. Are they doing all they could do to solve this mystery or are they just pretending to do all they can?

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes

Last edited by jimmcginn; 2nd November 2018 at 11:00 AM. Reason: spelling
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Old 2nd November 2018, 11:01 AM   #2
Dancing David
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Welcome Jim!
usually it is best if you present ideas and have them open for discussion.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 11:02 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
Do you believe warm, moist air is lighter than cool, dry air?
Warm air is demonstratably lighter than cold air, to anyone who's ever been inside four walls.

Quote:
Are meteorologists being honest with us that they have actually measured, tested this theory or do you think they are pretending to understand and relying on the general confusion of the populace to skirt the issues?
I think anyone who thinks they are pretending to understand weather simply doesn't grasp the concept of professions and expertise.

Quote:
Do you think they have a good understanding of severe weather. For example, did you know that tornadoes are considered by many to be a mystery.
I'm sure many people consider things they don't understand to be a mystery, but that doesn't mean that other people don't understand them.

For example, baking's a mystery if you've never done it.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 11:21 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
Are meteorologists being honest with us that they have actually measured, tested this theory or do you think they are pretending to understand and relying on the general confusion of the populace to skirt the issues?
I strongly doubt there is a cabal of meteorologists seeking to defraud the populace in any way.

Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
Do you think they have a good understanding of severe weather. For example, did you know that tornadoes are considered by many to be a mystery. Are they doing all they could do to solve this mystery or are they just pretending to do all they can?
With the exception of certain areas of mathematics, all sciences have their areas where things are unknown and mysterious.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 11:34 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
With the exception of certain areas of mathematics, all sciences have their areas where things are unknown and mysterious.
I wouldn't even classify maths as sciences. It's more the language of logic.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 11:47 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
Are You skeptical of meteorology's convection model of storm theory?
No.

Quote:
If yes how did you come to be skeptical? Did you notice something that didn't make sense?
No. Did you?

Quote:
If No why not? Have you studied the topic? College? Individually?
Yes, I have.

Quote:
What parts of it do you think are perfectly reasonable/sound and what parts do you feel unsure about?
I'm not unsure about any parts. It is all quite clear and logical.

Quote:
Here are some subtopics that you might be able to get you teeth into:

Do you believe warm, moist air is lighter than cool, dry air?
Of course it is. Don't take anybody's word for it, however. Put a pot of water on the stove and wait for it to boil. Does the steam rise?

Quote:
Do you believe dry layers act as a cap to upwelling of lighter, moist air?
Under certain conditions, they will.

Quote:
Do you believe release of latent heat from water describes the origins of the cold gusty winds of storms?
Question does not make sense. Please elaborate.

Quote:
Are meteorologists being honest with us that they have actually measured, tested this theory or do you think they are pretending to understand and relying on the general confusion of the populace to skirt the issues?
Of course they are honest. They have to be. There are thousands of independent meteorologists out there. Anybody dishonest will be disclosed right away. Plus, weather measurement data is publicly available. You can check it yourself.

Quote:
Do you think they have a good understanding of severe weather. For example, did you know that tornadoes are considered by many to be a mystery. Are they doing all they could do to solve this mystery or are they just pretending to do all they can?
Tornadoes are not a mystery. As all complex natural phenomena, they are impossible to predict perfectly, but there is no mystery.

Hans
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Old 2nd November 2018, 11:48 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
Are .....

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
What do you think?
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Old 2nd November 2018, 11:58 AM   #8
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Quote:
Are You skeptical of meteorology's convection model of storm theory?
Not really. However, I recently came across this website https://www.ventusky.com and plugged in my locale only to realize that all the wind info was not quite correct. Turns out it doesn't take things like mountain ranges into effect and assumes all land is flat except for creek beds where the air is cooler producing erroneous local wind data.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 12:12 PM   #9
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I find these types of topics interesting.

Tornados, and weather in general, is the result of a highly complex, chaotic, algorithmic system that is the result of interactions of at least thousands of variables. While some broad trends can be determined, exact knowledge is not possible.

Yet the same holds true for much simpler systems, like Roulette wheels or that Plinko board from the Price is Right. Heck, dropping a bag of multicolored marbles on the floor: you can predict in general that you'll have a pile of marbles, that will tend to roll downhill until they get to obstacles, but you can't predict details. Yet no one asks these sorts of questions about those experiences.

People are funny.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 12:15 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
Not really. However, I recently came across this website https://www.ventusky.com and plugged in my locale only to realize that all the wind info was not quite correct. Turns out it doesn't take things like mountain ranges into effect and assumes all land is flat except for creek beds where the air is cooler producing erroneous local wind data.
Looked at it. Afraid you lost me; I see mountains and other features quite well represented.

But of course, such things can be only approximations.

Hans
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Old 2nd November 2018, 12:28 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by MRC_Hans View Post
Looked at it. Afraid you lost me; I see mountains and other features quite well represented.

But of course, such things can be only approximations.

Hans
Yeah, I got tired of typing. I only see creek beds influencing things and generating very small local winds (which are probably accurate). I think the problem is that these very small variations get totally blown out (in my area) by the very steady 13 to 15 mph W-NW (gusts up to 20!) wind that blows everyday.*



*The DDWFTTW would be a viable commuter vehicle where I live.


ETA: Sorry, I confused you with Hans who lives in NorthAmerica, I believe. Are you in Europe? I noticed the other day that it's a European App so I think everything (layers etc.) work for Europe (although, I didn't try it). North America seems to be in the beta stage still.

Last edited by Elagabalus; 2nd November 2018 at 12:52 PM.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 12:33 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
Are You skeptical of meteorology's convection model of storm theory?

Yes, No?........
No. Thanks for asking.

And yes, I studied meteorology at university as part of an Environmental Science degree. Frankly, I have no idea at all how poor someone's education has to be to be even asking such stupid questions, and particularly to repeatedly use the word "believe" in asking them. This isn't a matter of belief.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 12:41 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
... snipped for breivty ...

Are meteorologists being honest with us that they have actually measured, tested this theory or do you think they are pretending to understand and relying on the general confusion of the populace to skirt the issues?

Do you think they have a good understanding of severe weather. For example, did you know that tornadoes are considered by many to be a mystery. Are they doing all they could do to solve this mystery or are they just pretending to do all they can?

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
Welcome to the Forum Jim.

Just to focus on your two main questions ...

'Yes', I do believe that meteorologists are being honest with us when it comes to the data that they have actually collected. Also, 'Yes' I do believe that meteorologists do understand what they are working on and that they are not trying to dupe the public.

And 'Yes' I also believe that meteorologists are doing all that they can do in regards to the study of tornadoes.

And this is from a person who has been a professional weather observer and a former pilot.

I hope this helps.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 12:52 PM   #14
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Old 2nd November 2018, 12:57 PM   #15
MRC_Hans
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post


ETA: Sorry, I confused you with Hans who lives in NorthAmerica, I believe. Are you in Europe? I noticed the other day that it's a European App so I think everything (layers etc.) work for Europe (although, I didn't try it). North America seems to be in the beta stage still.
Could be. I'm in Denmark, so for me it came up with Denmark. And it's pretty accurate, although we don't have actual mountains. Did check it for Noway, though, and it seems pretty fine there, too. I actually bookmarked it, so thanks.

But of course, it depends on actual map date being available.

Hans
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:16 PM   #16
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This chap is all over Youtube and so on plugging a book (until it was pulled because of plagiarism). He's incoherent, and without any sort of argument. I love this critique:

Quote:
Jim McGinn in his Book “Solving Tornadoes: Mastering the Mystery of the
Vortex” represents ‘the beginning of the end’ of what little
rationality mankind was capable of applying to any given subject. McGinn
represents an unusually high order of the Dunning-Kruger effect seldom
seen in ‘modern’ internet work
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:19 PM   #17
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See if you can guess the question...

eta
Damn it MikeG, you must be a faster typer than I am LOL
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:28 PM   #18
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Cool

Originally Posted by Dancing David View Post
Welcome Jim!
usually it is best if you present ideas and have them open for discussion.
No, I don't think so. That may be effective for obvious nonsense, like crop circles, but it is completely ineffective for something that wears the cloak of legitimacy. Meteorology's Storm theory is vague, convoluted, and ethereal. Most people can't tell the difference between such and something that is genuinely well understood and tested. And, in my experience, when people are presented with ideas that don't conform to their ethereal beliefs they immediately become emotional. Then they start to put up barriers and start throwing doo doo.

There are two things that motivate the publics belief in a scientific topic. Laziness and faith in authority. Some less scrupulous scientific disciplines--meteorology being a perfect example--have learned that if they keep their model simple and consistent with common anecdote it is not hard at all to pull the wool over the publics' eyes. For example, with meteorology's storm theory it is typical to make comparisons to a pot boiling on a stove. Its a completely absurd analogy in that there is no boiling happening in the atmosphere. But most humans are easily persuaded by analogies and narratives (story telling).

Pseudoscience is successful (and let me assure you, Meteorology's Storm Theory is just that, pseudoscience) when people fail to ask detailed questions.

Humans are incredibly gullible.

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:31 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
This chap is all over Youtube and so on plugging a book (until it was pulled because of plagiarism). He's incoherent, and without any sort of argument. I love this critique:
pulled because of plagiarism- twice according to the Yahoo group, however I noticed is actually back on sale again
Dont buy this LOL
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:32 PM   #20
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What happens when you multiply using Betteridge's Law of Headlines? This thread.

There's nothing scientific about the questions here - it's straight out conspiracy theorism. Track record:
https://sci.physics.narkive.com/yyTM...k-theoretical-

Apparently he believes in a fourth phase of water that something something weather. Unfortunately, there are many counterclaims as to what the fourth phase is, so marketing is so critical:

https://www.google.com/search?source....0.Y0Xt-p1u3_I

I wonder where I can buy his book? No, I really don't.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:33 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
..........Humans are incredibly gullible.

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
Something woo-peddlers try to exploit. They usually come unstuck here, though, and I doubt you'll be any more successful than the others.

Why did you have to withdraw your book?
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:39 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
Do you believe warm, moist air is lighter than cool, dry air?

Yes.

Quote:
Do you believe dry layers act as a cap to upwelling of lighter, moist air?

I don't have an opinion on that. Is that what meteorologists claim? It wouldn't be the dry air itself that would act as a cap, because dry air is denser so the warm moist air should continue to rise through it.

However, if there were a lot of dry air and a limited amount of warm moist air rising through it, the rising plumes could entrain and mix with some of the dryer air, making it overall less moist, which could act as a cap of sorts.

Also, if such a dry layer were also cold, that would condense the moisture (water vapor) in the warm moist air, making it cooler and hence arresting its further rise. That could certainly act as a cap under those conditions.

If that were often the case, then we'd expect to see clouds often forming with flat bottoms corresponding to the height at which the temperature becomes cool enough to cause condensation, and fluffy tops where the capped-off convection plumes reach their highest extent. And, lo and behold, we do observe exactly that.

Quote:
Do you believe release of latent heat from water describes the origins of the cold gusty winds of storms?

Not directly. Release of latent heat during condensation of water vapor warms the surroundings. It's evaporation that cools them.

Quote:
Are meteorologists being honest with us that they have actually measured, tested this theory or do you think they are pretending to understand and relying on the general confusion of the populace to skirt the issues?

Meteorologists rely on the well-tested findings of basic physics and physical chemistry for such matters as the behavior of H2O in phase transitions. Most of their testing has historically consisted of observations in the real atmosphere (temperatures, pressures, water vapor content) and correlating those with observed weather, both locally and in large-scale patterns over large areas.

More recently, of course, mathematical modeling has been extensively used.

Physical modeling and experimentation is of limited use in meteorology because the processes of weather have inherent scales. "Tornado chamber" experiments, for example, are highly contrived, using directed air flows from fans and the like, to create a small-scale simulacrum that kind of looks like a tornado. For hurricanes and thunder storms, even that much is not possible, because the actual processes only occur on characteristic scales. One never observes a three foot high thunderstorm in nature, nor can one create one in ones living room no matter how extreme you set your HVAC controls.

Quote:
Do you think they have a good understanding of severe weather. For example, did you know that tornadoes are considered by many to be a mystery. Are they doing all they could do to solve this mystery or are they just pretending to do all they can?

"Understanding" is a more complex concept than you would like it to be. It's quite possible to understand all of the underlying rules by which a system operates, and also understand all of the starting conditions when the system initiates operation, and still not understand why it behaves as it does.

Another forum member in a different thread recently brought up the example of "Langton's Ant." It's an idealized artificial system with extremely simple rules, but its behavior is complex. We can observe, for example, that for all finite starting configurations, the Ant's behavior eventually falls into a certain repeating pattern. But we can't explain why, other than to say "because that's the result of following the rules." Which is very unsatisfying; we look at the rules and they say nothing about a 104-step repeating pattern.

Some people are so bothered by that that they insist there must be a hidden rule snuck in somewhere. But there's no need and no room for a hidden rule. You can take the known rules and use them, and them alone, to design your own Langton's Ant program or machine, or even execute the rules yourself with pencil and paper, and still get the same result.

Why Langton's Ant makes that pattern is a mystery, in the sense that we can't explain in words, in narrative, why it does so. But there's no mystery and no doubt about the fact that we know the exact and complete rules that cause its behavior.

(I sometimes call this the "Mad Scientist Fallacy." That's the belief, often unspoken but assumed, that if you can create something that works, or enumerate the rules by which it works, it implies you understand it well enough to be able to control it. Or equivalently, that if something goes out of control or behaves unexpectedly, it must be because there's an unrecognized exception somewhere in its operating rules, an "x factor." Mad scientists in fiction had to be insane, to explain why they could create things they couldn't control. But in the real world, such "mad" science is more the rule than the exception; and nature is madder than all the world's scientists put together.)

Similarly, you can look all you want at the rules for heat transfer and electromagnetism and the fluid mechanics of air and water, and you won't find any rule that mentions tornadoes. Tornadoes, like Langton's Ant's repeating pattern, are a result of the actual evolution of systems following the rules under certain starting conditions. Just because we can't phrase a satisfying explanation beyond "that's the result of following the rules" doesn't mean there has to be an undiscovered tornado rule.


Now, my turn to ask some questions:

1. You've claimed in your writings that water vapor cannot exist in air in earth's atmosphere. How do you explain (a), the observed operation of a solar still; (b) where the moisture that fogs up my glasses, when coming indoors after being out in cold weather, comes from?

2. Your question about warm moist air being lighter than cooler dryer air implies that you doubt that claim. How do you explain the operation of (a) a chimney; (b) the flight of a typical gas-burner-heated hot air balloon (noting that gas burners output both heat and moisture)?

3. You've also expressed doubt about evaporation and condensation of water vapor being a cause of heat transfer in storms. How do you explain the observed operation of a refrigerator?
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:49 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Warm air is demonstratably lighter than cold air,
LOL. You obviously haven't thought this through. If there is zero moisture in the air then what you are saying is true. But reality is more complex than that Skippy. And warmer air is more of a magnet for moisture than is colder air.

Reality is complex. Humans are simple and gullible.

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:54 PM   #24
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He's offering a $100000 prize for anyone who can prove him wrong
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:55 PM   #25
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Clearly Jim has never lived in a house heated by radiators, or seen smoke go up a chimney. Some people seem to lead very blinkered lives.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 01:57 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Dabop View Post
He's offering a $100000 prize for anyone who can prove him wrong
I wonder who'll be the judge of that?
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:11 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
LOL. You obviously haven't thought this through. If there is zero moisture in the air then what you are saying is true. But reality is more complex than that Skippy. And warmer air is more of a magnet for moisture than is colder air.
This sort of thing is frowned upon around here. I suggest you take a look at the rules if you propose being here for any length of time.

Quote:
......Humans are simple and gullible........
So you keep saying. You might find that we're somewhat less gullible than you rely on here.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:19 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Clearly Jim has never lived in a house heated by radiators, or seen smoke go up a chimney. Some people seem to lead very blinkered lives.
Or just a two story house. Turn off the upstairs HVAC and it gets 10 degrees F warmer upstairs in my house almost immediately. You can feel it going up the stairs.

Meteorology is a fun topic. A great way to explore practical physics that you can see every day for the rest of your life. I hate to see something that has brought me so much joy dragged through the mud, but it was inevitable.

I think the problem is that fluid dynamics is not really all that intuitive. It is a bit like statistics in that the more you study it the more you can get a hang of it, but most people who are first learning about the topics tend to run into a lot of things that just don't feel right.

Dense cold air being heavier than warm humid air is just such a thing. It is carrying all that water so it should be heavy, and yet compared to all the dense dry air it is not. I'm sure someone can step in with the math on a cubic meter of air at 30 degrees C with 80% relative humidity and compare that with a cubic meter of air at 15 degrees C with 50% relative humidity, but that won't actually mean anything to the OP and I'm not going to be the one to waste my time.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:27 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
No, I don't think so. That may be effective for obvious nonsense, like crop circles, but it is completely ineffective for something that wears the cloak of legitimacy.
Hi Jim,
I see you haven't posted any actual ideas or theories, we tear them apart here, including orthodoxy.

So show em if you got em, otherwise you just spouted a bunch of meaningless sophistry
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:29 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
LOL. You obviously haven't thought this through. If there is zero moisture in the air then what you are saying is true. But reality is more complex than that Skippy. And warmer air is more of a magnet for moisture than is colder air.

Reality is complex. Humans are simple and gullible.

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
Again more sophistry, seriously lacking in any data , argument or evidence.

You haven't explained your actual ideas...
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:39 PM   #31
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I don't know what is your opinion, but I'm already against it.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:44 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Dancing David View Post
Welcome Jim!
usually it is best if you present ideas and have them open for discussion.
Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
No, I don't think so.

You think youíll do better by Just Asking Questions?
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:45 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Dancing David View Post
Again more sophistry, seriously lacking in any data , argument or evidence.

You haven't explained your actual ideas...
Who needs that when you have assertions? The guy has little expertise is his chosen field of conquest and is immune to cognitive dissonance.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:54 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
Welcome to the Forum Jim.

Just to focus on your two main questions ...

'Yes', I do believe that meteorologists are being honest with us when it comes to the data that they have actually collected.
Wow! This statement underscores the difficulty that revolutionary scientists, like myself, have to deal with over and over again. Note the blatant intellectual dishonesty of your response. This happens over and over again. I ask a question. You change the wording of my question and then present it as if I stated it as such.

What excuse do you have for changing the wording of my question?

Let's see if you can answer this question without changing the wording.

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:55 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
... For example, with meteorology's storm theory it is typical to make comparisons to a pot boiling on a stove. Its a completely absurd analogy in that there is no boiling happening in the atmosphere...
Yet, if you let the pot with water in it sit long enough eventually the water will disappear. It didn't boil so where did it go?
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:55 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
You think youíll do better by Just Asking Questions?
You got nothing!!!

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
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Old 2nd November 2018, 02:59 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
........scientists, like myself.......
But you're not, are you Jim. You see, you don't have any scientific training, you don't hold any scientific posts, and you've never had any science published (you know, respected peer reviewed journals. You've heard of them?). It's a straightforward lie to call yourself a scientist.

Unless of course you can demonstrate otherwise, in which case I'll apologise and withdraw that.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 03:00 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by jimmcginn View Post
You got nothing!!!

I’m not the one making claims.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 03:00 PM   #39
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I call troll.
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Old 2nd November 2018, 03:02 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Or just a two story house. Turn off the upstairs HVAC and it gets 10 degrees F warmer upstairs in my house almost immediately. You can feel it going up the stairs.
Surreal. Even a moderately intelligent person realizes that it requires a huge leap of faith to think that warm air rising is evidence that the same phenomena powers storms.

How can you call yourself a skeptic? (Or, possibly, you don't?)

James McGinn / Solving Tornadoes
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