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Tags | 2020 elections , donald trump , political speculation |
View Poll Results: Will trump be re-elected? |
Yes | 28 | 14.51% | |
No | 80 | 41.45% | |
Don't know, but I hope not | 82 | 42.49% | |
Don't know, but I hope he does | 3 | 1.55% | |
Voters: 193. You may not vote on this poll |
31st March 2017, 01:31 AM | #121 |
Misanthrope of the Mountains
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 24,133
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To get a clear idea we would need to know the following:
1) What is the economy like in the key rust-belt states that barely swung his way? 2) Who are the Democrats running? 3) Have tens of millions been purged from healthcare? 4) Are there any new wars? 5) How fatigued are people by the scandals? |
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"Because WE ARE IGNORANT OF 911 FACTS, WE DEMAND PROOF" -- Douglas Herman on Rense.com
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31st March 2017, 01:38 AM | #122 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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31st March 2017, 05:16 AM | #123 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 20,625
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Remember though, the Iraq invasion is still fresh in many people's minds, and currently the majority of people view it as a mistake. While some may think Trump leading the country to war makes him more popular, it probably won't be as big a bump as other wars.
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31st March 2017, 05:41 AM | #124 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Given the fact that Trump won despite so many saying he had no chance, making predictions can be a bit tricky.
But, if I had to, I'd say he has no chance for re-election (assuming he runs) for a number of reasons: - Trump's victory was extremely slim... he lost the popular vote, and only won the electoral college because he won a small number of states by a very tiny margin. It would not have taken much to tilt things in the Democrats favor last time. So, for Trump to win again, he'd have to ensure that he holds on to every vote he had last time, and/or attempt to reach out to moderates - Trump has shown little or no interest in increasing his voter base. Little mention of "If you didn't vote for me hopefully I'll still make things better" statements in his early speeches. His rallies have been aimed at his current supporters. And his constant attacks on the media, etc. are unlikely to get him new votes. The lack of any sort of prolonged "honeymoon" period suggests that. - Demographic shifts will continue to favor the democrats (i.e. increasing proportion of minorities, who tend to vote democrat.) Granted, its only 4 years, so demographics won't change THAT much, but as I said, Trump's victory was very slim so even a slight change may make a difference - The media may be smarter when it comes to dealing with Trump, being less likely to give him a free pass on many of his lies as they did early in is 2016 campaign. - Non-Trump protest Voters may be smarter now. Many sat out the election, or voted for Stein or did a write-in of Sanders in protest. You have to figure at least a few of these people will look at the 2016 election, realize that the lesser of 2 evils actually is less evil, and actually vote for the Democratic candidate. (Some will continue to be idiots to the end, but as I said, you don't need many votes to erase Trump's margin of victory.) - A few of Trump's voters may wise up. After all, many of Trump's supporters voted for him based on some pretty vague promises that Trump has no way or intention to fulfill (bringing coal mining/manufacturing jobs back, drain the swamp). Other promises sounded good, but may make things worse for the country (build a wall, which will cost $billions, protectionist trade policies, etc.) Not to mention Trump's handing of health care will probably end up killing off many of his own supporters. Literally. (I remember reading that on average the past Republican health care bill would have affected Trump supporters more negatively than non-trump supporters.) Yes, he will continue to get support from of the more brain-damaged in the population, but he only needs to lose a few votes to be defeated. |
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31st March 2017, 06:00 AM | #125 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I think the main point the other poster was making was that Russia may not be ABLE to meddle in the election. The media is more aware of Russian hacking issues, and voters are 'bothered' by it. Hopefully that will mean russia won't have the same ability to convince voters to vote for a racist Orangutan.
As for Russia favoring Trump, Putin wants what's best for Putin. In the last election that was "destabilize the U.S., and punish Hillary". If Hillary isn't running, that will eliminate at least some of the personal motive.
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But, they may be more proactive in pointing out his flaws. Remember, one of the main criticisms of the media is that they allowed Trump to basically spout nonsense for months before they started engaging in more fact checking.
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2nd April 2017, 08:28 PM | #126 |
Thinker
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 209
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New polling came out this week!
Trump (43%) vs Warren (48%) Trump (40%) vs Biden (54%) Trump (42%) vs Booker (45%) Trump (41%) vs Franken (46%) Trump (41%) vs Sanders (52%) Trump (40%) vs Oprah (47%) Trump (41%) vs Mark Cuban (40%) Trump (35%) vs Generic Democrat (43%) http://http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf |
3rd April 2017, 12:34 AM | #127 |
Penultimate Amazing
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It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871) |
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3rd April 2017, 04:26 AM | #128 |
Banned
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3rd April 2017, 04:28 AM | #129 |
Philosopher
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3rd April 2017, 04:40 AM | #130 |
Penultimate Amazing
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It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871) |
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3rd April 2017, 04:52 AM | #131 |
Orthogonal Vector
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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3rd April 2017, 04:59 AM | #132 |
Penultimate Amazing
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3rd April 2017, 05:02 AM | #133 |
Orthogonal Vector
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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3rd April 2017, 08:09 AM | #134 |
Philosopher
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He has officially never really stopped being a candidate.
https://politicalwire.com/2017/01/27...d-re-election/ |
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The man with one watch knows what time it is, the man with two watches is never sure. |
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3rd April 2017, 09:26 AM | #135 |
Papa Funkosophy
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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4th April 2017, 02:18 AM | #136 |
Fiend God
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Anything's possible, but I seriously doubt he'll get reelected.
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4th April 2017, 02:26 AM | #137 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Because he won't be a candidate (because he's been removed as president or he chooses not to stand) or because he will run and be defeated by the Democratic Party candidate ?
My own opinion is that if he runs in 2020 he wins regardless of how ineffectual his presidency has been because he'll have near 100% support from GOP supporters (either because they think he's a good candidate or blind party loyalty) and at least some "independents" will be swung by the media. I don't see him voluntarily standing down as President or not running again so IMO the only reason he wouldn't run is because he cannot - either because he is disqualified or because he is unable to run through ill health (or worse). |
4th April 2017, 02:42 AM | #138 |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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4th April 2017, 07:10 AM | #139 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2010
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Not quite so. He didn't begin the re-election campaign officially until inauguration, and so between election and inauguration, he was not a candidate.
Still, the situation is totally **********, no doubt. Run the country for at least a year or two before hitting the campaign trail. |
4th April 2017, 07:49 AM | #140 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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4th April 2017, 07:55 AM | #141 |
Fiend God
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4th April 2017, 08:32 AM | #142 |
Penultimate Amazing
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He had the support of GOP voters (as well as his own supporters) in the last election, and he still lost the popular vote and only won the election due to winning a few swing states by the tiniest of margins.
"Near 100%" won't cut it next time around... he can't afford to lose any supporters (which won't happen, since most of Trump's promises were shown to be bunk, and some of the things he's actually enacted were unpopular), and/or he needs to grow his voter base (unlikely, since he has shown a complete unwillingness to reach outside his current klan of supporters.) |
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4th April 2017, 08:33 AM | #143 |
Fiend God
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4th April 2017, 10:21 AM | #144 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Trump will crank the fine-tuned lie machine up to 11, claiming all sorts of successes, real or imagined.
He will go on every possible attack against: Democratic candidates; their eventual running mate; the Democratic members of congress; the news media; any and all people, public and private, he can use as scapegoats and obstructionists; and Obama. He will continue to speak in person and on record in near incomprehensible statements, heavily ladled with empty promises, rhetoric, and platitudes. He will tweet 'til his fingers bleed. He will take attention away from whatever cockup of the day happens to be by creating a new controversy - all of it too voluminous to keep track of. He will have members of his administration, all of whom he didn't have in 2016, acting as campaign field generals, attacking on all fronts. He will thoroughly utilize Air Force 1, along with the other trappings and pageantry of his office, throughout the campaign, reinforcing an air of legitimacy and prestige. He will not have any significant primary opposition, enabling him to conserve his resources and concentrate his energy. After three years of his relentless incompetence and idiocy while in office as well as another almost two from the earlier campaign, the general public will be entirely too punch drunk to put up much of a fight. 2020 is probably Trump's to lose. |
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4th April 2017, 10:53 PM | #145 |
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4th April 2017, 11:18 PM | #146 |
Master Poster
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Trump has been driving toward impeachment since taking office.
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4th April 2017, 11:35 PM | #147 |
Master Poster
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Could this be the reason why Trump didn't want to throw out the first pitch?
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4th April 2017, 11:39 PM | #148 |
Lackey
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Perhaps he is embarrassed about the size of his hands? Actually we do know that is a very sensitive thing for him he's been sending photos of his hands to someone decades after they made a comment about Trump being short fingered: http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/20...r-donald-trump |
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“If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?” Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago |
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4th April 2017, 11:55 PM | #149 |
Philosopher
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Trump would have been booed very hard if he went to that game. Probably harder than Roger Goodell got booed at the Superbowl.
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5th April 2017, 12:00 AM | #150 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I think it's even simpler than that. A person who hasn't pitched looks rather silly throwing the first pitch at a game. Most people that participate in the tradition know this and are fine with a little humiliation of this sort, since it doesn't really matter much. Trump, however, never wants to look silly. He'd probably never sit on a dunk platform at a fair either.
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1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it. |
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5th April 2017, 12:04 AM | #151 |
Philosopher
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5th April 2017, 12:07 AM | #152 |
Philosopher
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Donald Trump Specials at LadBrokes:
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Looks like a golden opportunity for Trump supporters who think he'll run in 2020:
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5th April 2017, 12:09 AM | #153 |
Master Poster
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5th April 2017, 01:11 AM | #154 |
Penultimate Amazing
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1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it. |
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5th April 2017, 09:39 AM | #155 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
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Trump lied, made empty promises and tweeted constantly during the 2016 election. While he won the election he lost the popular vote.
Do you really think the lying and tweeting will be more successful next time?
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I'm not saying that Trump would get totally slaughtered in 2020 if he were to run. (Between political polarization, the number of bigots in the U.S. and the Republican efforts at voter suppression he'd still win quite a few states.) I'm just saying that his victory in 2016 was razor-thin, and even a small voter shift away from him and/or to the democrats would probably have him losing. |
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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5th April 2017, 09:47 AM | #156 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I understand your considering, and at least somewhat disagreeing with, the points I made. However, my argument is meant to be taken in its entirety; each of the angles are strengthened by their support of the whole.
Not a chain. Chainmail. |
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My heros are Alex Zanardi and Evelyn Glennie. |
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6th April 2017, 07:09 AM | #157 |
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We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good. |
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6th April 2017, 07:19 AM | #158 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Heck they were blaming Bill Clinton during the election and he was President last millennium Sure a few Trump voters may not blame Obama, instead they, like Trump will blame Democrats for not supporting his cruddy bills, Mexicans for not paying for his ridiculous wall and "leftists" for failing to MAGA |
6th April 2017, 07:55 AM | #159 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Oh, I have no doubt that many/most Trump supporters will find any and all excuses to justify Trump's failures, including blaming Obama and the Democrats. (Trump has already tried shifting the blame when he talked about he didn't get any Democrats supporting his health care plan.)
But you don't need a widespread revolt against Trump by his supporters to have him lose an election in 2020. You just need him to lose ~1% of his voters to tip the scales against him. |
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Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot |
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6th April 2017, 08:31 AM | #160 |
Penultimate Amazing
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You're quite right but there are a number of things working in Trump's favour. It's quite rare for a president to serve only a single term when it's not the third term of a particular party - the US electorate seems to like giving their presidents a full 8 years. It's entirely possible that he will lose the popular vote by an even wider margin but the things that made some states unexpectedly turn red, (white) working class dissatisfaction, a feeling that *something* has to change and so on will still be the same. The GOP will also be working super-hard to get those voter rolls purged and Voter ID implemented to keep hold of those gains.
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