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Tags | 2020 elections , donald trump , political speculation |
View Poll Results: Will trump be re-elected? |
Yes | 28 | 14.51% | |
No | 80 | 41.45% | |
Don't know, but I hope not | 82 | 42.49% | |
Don't know, but I hope he does | 3 | 1.55% | |
Voters: 193. You may not vote on this poll |
6th April 2017, 09:10 AM | #161 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada, eh?
Posts: 20,625
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True... most presidents in recent history have been multi-termers.
But Trump isn't a "normal" president by any stretch of the imagination. He's politically inexperienced and especially combative (to both his opponents and to people who SHOULD be his allies, such as Republicans in the senate.) And his personal popularity has cratered almost immediately (unlike other presidents who have at least a few months of popularity after first getting elected). Because he is so different, I don't think you can really compare the Trump presidency (and his chance of reelection) to those of earlier presidents.
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The problem is, it had already occurred in 2016, so we know what its effect will be. Its would be unlikely for the situation to get WORSE. (For it to get worse, suppression would have to happen in a swing state, and it would have to be a new law.) Consider some of the states Trump won by very small margins: - Wis: Already had a voter ID law in 2016 - Pen: Has a democratic gov, so he's unlikely to support voter suppression - Florida: Already had a voter ID law in 2016 So, its unlikely that voter suppression will make things worse there. The only place where things might get worse for the democrats is in Mich, where the republicans are currently in charge. In fact they recently tried to pass stricter voter ID laws, but the bill was abandoned. |
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7th April 2017, 12:02 AM | #162 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 37,581
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Then why assume that it won't be greater ?
Yes he can, and he will. His spiel will be that the Washington machine has confounded him at every step, that the Democratic Party candidate is part of the Washington establishment (which, no doubt, (s)he will be unless they're a complete outsider in which case they'll be elitist in some way) and that he can sort things out if only he had a free hand. The electorate will be at least, if not more desperate, and they'll go back for a second helping IMO. ...and the other measures:
Nothing new, but I expect much, much more of the same |
21st October 2020, 05:04 PM | #163 |
Thinker
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 209
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A thread I made I completely forgot. So, yeah if you didn’t already vote in this poll cause we’re gonna know the answer soon!
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21st October 2020, 05:18 PM | #164 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: United States
Posts: 6,332
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His chance of re-election is below 1/10.
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21st October 2020, 06:12 PM | #165 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Sorth Dakonsin
Posts: 29,368
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I'm loving seeing the map projections. It seems that Florida will be the major deciding factor. Not like it hasn't been before.
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21st October 2020, 06:55 PM | #166 |
Papa Funkosophy
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Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 34,263
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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22nd October 2020, 05:56 AM | #167 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
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23rd October 2020, 12:06 AM | #168 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 7,508
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I'm in for Biden at 295 EVs.
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23rd October 2020, 07:39 AM | #169 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: I live in a swamp
Posts: 27,710
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I know it's risky but I'm going to call a Biden win at 357 EVs. Biden will outperform the polls in Texas where he's only down by .5 percent in the aggregate polls. He'll also carry Florida.
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Ashley Babbit was a good start. |
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23rd October 2020, 08:16 AM | #170 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 10,415
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I voted "I don't know, but I hope not". There's just no way to tell with Trump because he's unlike every other POTUS there has been. I suppose it also depends on his defeat margin, because if he loses by a landslide, it'll be far harder for him to steal the election.
If I had to guess an outcome, I'd go with no, though. Partly because the GOP might simply drop him if he loses, and partly because the US is such a powderkeg right now that trying to nullify the election results might be suicidal to the Republicans. Remember the Women's March in 2016? Do you see the widespread protests and police brutality going on right now? I predict they are nothing compared to what's coming if the GOP messes too much with the election results. I predict the GOP knows, too. |
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"He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig |
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23rd October 2020, 08:34 AM | #171 |
Not a doctor.
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Texas
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There are some interesting post on the first page of this thread.
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23rd October 2020, 08:41 AM | #172 |
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270's Aggregate Poll puts us at safe 290 to 163 with 85 votes (Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine District 2) still up for grabs.
But the "Blue Wall" (Penn, Michigan, and Wisconsin) still worry me personally. None of them are "safely blue" and any one or more of them go Red and we're right back where we started in potential paths to victory being within the margins of error. You could make a fair argument for the early voting surge inflating the numbers in a lot of different ways. One it could offset the "Red Mirage" that we've been worried about, but on the other hand it could mean most of the blue votes have already been counted in some areas and everything from here on out is going to be red. |
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"If everyone in the room says water is wet and I say it's dry that makes me smart because at least I'm thinking for myself!" - The Proudly Wrong. |
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23rd October 2020, 08:56 AM | #173 |
Critical Thinker
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Montgomery Co., PA
Posts: 272
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I did my part and voted Biden as a resident of PA. I didn't vote in 2016 and was therefore part of the problem. I don't want to be part of the problem again.
In this thread's poll, I voted "I hope not, but I don't know" because Trump seems like too much of a wild card to make any definitive preductions. |
23rd October 2020, 09:00 AM | #174 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Norway
Posts: 10,415
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What comforts me is how much stronger Biden's support is than Trump's. If you look at the snake on FiveThirtyEight, there's a lot more dark blue than dark red. It's worrying that a fair bit of the blue part (such as the aforementioned blue wall) isn't darker, but at least it's a lead over Trump.
I just wish Florida would turn blue. That would be incredibly reassuring. |
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"He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig |
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23rd October 2020, 09:21 AM | #175 |
Philosopher
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The man with one watch knows what time it is, the man with two watches is never sure. |
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23rd October 2020, 09:24 AM | #176 |
Papa Funkosophy
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Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 34,263
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Fun tool from 538
Basically, if Trump loses any of the the close races, his chances of winning plummet into the low single digits. There are a few exceptions that only put him in the high single digits. Biden has a lot more leeway. He can lose several and still not dip below 50% chance of winning. I mean, there are still a lot of complexities to it, but Trump is in a tough spot no matter how you look at it. |
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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23rd October 2020, 09:36 AM | #177 |
Philosopher
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23rd October 2020, 09:39 AM | #178 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Gunter Haas, the 'leading British expert,' was a graphologist who advised couples, based on their handwriting characteristics, if they were compatible for marriage. I would submit that couples idiotic enough to do this are probably quite suitable for each other. It's nice when stupid people find love. - Ludovic Kennedy |
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23rd October 2020, 10:25 AM | #179 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: US of A
Posts: 16,613
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The issue isn't really whether Trump can win the election. The question is whether he can steal it.
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23rd October 2020, 10:39 AM | #180 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2007
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"He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig |
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23rd October 2020, 11:19 AM | #181 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 39,057
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He will be reelected. The vote will be either 6-3 or 5-4.
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23rd October 2020, 02:16 PM | #182 |
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Location: Florida
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The pure symbolism of California, Texas, Florida, and New York all voting for the same President would give us a cultural message not seen since Reagan.
Florida's a maybe leaning toward probably. Texas is a longshot but closer then it has been in a while. As to the polling I, honestly with no snark, do think the major pollsters (who I understand weren't "wrong" in the way often think they were wrong about 2016) have put valid effort into adjusting for the polling errors in 2016, that's not the same thing as having full confidence that they have adjusted for the polling errors in 2016. |
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"If everyone in the room says water is wet and I say it's dry that makes me smart because at least I'm thinking for myself!" - The Proudly Wrong. |
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23rd October 2020, 03:58 PM | #183 |
Penultimate Amazing
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1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it. |
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23rd October 2020, 07:23 PM | #184 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Ashley Babbit was a good start. |
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24th October 2020, 12:03 AM | #185 |
Penultimate Amazing
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24th October 2020, 06:33 AM | #186 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Worst-case scenario -- Biden dies before the election. I know it's still possible for him to be elected anyway but I'd find it highly unlikely. Penultimate worst-case -- he gets a bad case of Covid-19.
After the election either wouldn't matter so much as I believe there are processes in place and I think Harris would take over, but I'm not 100% sure of that. |
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Science is self-correcting. Woo is self-contradicting. |
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24th October 2020, 06:24 PM | #187 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 21,203
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I get the joke, but the SCotUS can't actually elect the President. What they can do it is rule in such a way that it throws out enough races for the Electoral College to become contested, or neither candidate has the required 270 votes. At that point, the decision goes to Congress where the Republicans hold the required 26 of 50 votes resulting in a 26 to 22, with 2 abstentions, vote to Trump.
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It must be fun to lead a life completely unburdened by reality. -- JayUtah I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question. -- Charles Babbage (1791-1871) |
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24th October 2020, 07:27 PM | #188 |
Penultimate Amazing
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24th October 2020, 07:56 PM | #189 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 14,971
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Trump will win the EC, Biden will win the popular vote.
If you look at the poll margins just for the swing states and look at the actual number of people that represents, it is not very many. While both parties have voter databases for targeted campaigning the GOP seem to have more sophisticated tools to use this. People influenced by these kinds of campaign are not necessarily spread evenly among the population and will not necessarily show up in polling. Likely there will be a blitz on evangelicals and Catholics in the swing states to the effect that Biden is going to bias the Supreme Court back to Liberals, whereas Trump will move it even farther to the right. If Trump convinces, maybe, 0.1% of that group to vote who wouldn't normally vote in the swing states, then he has this election sewn up. |
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We all hate poverty, war, and injustice Unlike the rest of you squares. Tom Lehrer - Folk Song Army |
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25th October 2020, 12:34 PM | #190 |
Penultimate Amazing
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1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it. |
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25th October 2020, 08:11 PM | #191 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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25th October 2020, 08:22 PM | #192 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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25th October 2020, 08:41 PM | #193 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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25th October 2020, 08:43 PM | #194 |
Philosopher
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Location: United States
Posts: 6,332
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I'm giving Biden 320+ electoral votes.
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25th October 2020, 08:57 PM | #195 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
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I think it is a real possiblity if there is a coup but I think a coup is not that likely. I just hink that even conservative justices would be reluctant to stage a full scale coup. Paranoia does not exist soley on the right. Or maybe you want it to happen on the "Sooner we have fascism, the sooner we will have the revollution" theory. |
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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26th October 2020, 06:37 AM | #196 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Sep 2001
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1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it. |
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30th October 2020, 01:02 AM | #197 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 22,554
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one time is a fluke.
But just now Kavanaugh referenced Bush v. Gore in a vote-counting lawsuit, which means that at least for him it's Precedent (even though the literal text of the decisions says that it cannot be taken as such). No, Florida 2000 might have been a fluke then, but it has become a blueprint. |
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30th October 2020, 10:25 AM | #198 |
Seeking Honesty and Sanity
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Originally, in February 2017 I voted "Don't know, but I hope not".
But, if had to vote now, then I would vote "No". The three things I have noticed recently, which were not there in 2017 are: One: Biden is significantly our-fundraising Trump. Two: Trump has foolishly squandered a great deal of his campaign funds. Three: even the news media now tends to speak of Trump in the past tense. Which I find to be significant since the news media often has a good grasp of the current public sentiment. |
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30th October 2020, 11:13 AM | #199 |
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"If everyone in the room says water is wet and I say it's dry that makes me smart because at least I'm thinking for myself!" - The Proudly Wrong. |
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30th October 2020, 12:35 PM | #200 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: San Francisco
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I fear the answer is yes.
When a 70 + yo lifelong democrat party voter tells you he's voting for Trump because of civil unrest and doesn't trust Biden to end it, there's a problem.
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