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Tags | donald trump , political speculation , Trump controversies |
View Poll Results: Is a Trump impeachment likely? |
Yes, expect to see it happen sometime in the near future. | 38 | 31.15% | |
No, Trump is safe(for now) | 46 | 37.70% | |
Don't know | 18 | 14.75% | |
On planet X Trump will dissolve Congress fire everyone and declare himself POTUS for life | 20 | 16.39% | |
Voters: 122. You may not vote on this poll |
18th May 2017, 12:20 PM | #81 |
Penultimate Amazing
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They could abandon the beast anytime and lose nothing. It only takes a 10-second look at the order of succession to see that the alternatives are more re-electable than the beast.
That's the truly demented thing about the defenders. They think that keeping it around will somehow accrue to their advantage when elections roll around again, ignoring the fact that every time someone opens their mouth in its defense they lose credibility and can't get that credibility back as long as the beast continues to occupy the Oval Office. |
18th May 2017, 12:35 PM | #82 |
Penultimate Amazing
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It may be wishful thinking, but while I think impeachment is extremely unlikely, I think resignation is a good possibility. I think Trump might just get sick of the media constantly (from his viewpoint) persecuting him and frustrated by not being able to get much through Congress, and executive orders being overturned by the courts, and decide to take his ball and go home. If he doesn't resign, he might decide not to run for a second term.
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18th May 2017, 12:48 PM | #83 |
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The Republicans are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
If they act too quickly, they risk alienating the Trump believers. There is quite a lot of them and the Republicans need them to win. Republican leadership will not move against Trump until there is overwhelming evidence against him. If they take too long, they risk losing the the Senate and maybe the House in 2020 or even 2018. |
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I've always believed that cluelessness evolved as an adaptation to allow the truly appalling to live with themselves. - G. B. Trudeau A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. - Kay, Men in Black. Enjoy every sandwich. - Warren Zevon |
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18th May 2017, 12:58 PM | #84 |
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Quote:
He could probably argue that he didn't do (3) given that he was an authority. Even if not, he shared the memos with other authorities. And he didn't do (4), Just the opposite, he took affirmative steps to make sure that other authorities knew what happened. |
18th May 2017, 12:59 PM | #85 |
Illuminator
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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/o...ight.html?_r=0
Quote:
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18th May 2017, 06:00 PM | #86 |
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What do you suggest drives this animus?
It's not mere partisanship. Like many others, I would take almost any Republican president over Trump. And now the question is whether we would take a Pence over a Trump. Pence would be bad and I would oppose almost everything he stands for, but Trump is a complete disaster. He is at odds with his own White House, his own staff and he tweets contradictory things without batting an eyelid. He is astonishingly self-absorbed and apparently unable to see any value in the truth. The Republicans worried about their seats should know that they are trying to gain some short term advantage for a legacy of shame. People may look back on Trump as the most ignominious episode in electoral history and his enablers will be vilified. This might not happen if his presidency blows over quickly but if there is any kind of crisis that the president has to deal with then this could be a real nightmare. |
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Слава Україні! **** Putin! |
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18th May 2017, 06:47 PM | #87 |
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"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
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18th May 2017, 07:00 PM | #88 |
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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18th May 2017, 07:03 PM | #89 |
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The Australian Family Association's John Morrissey was aghast when he learned Jessica Watson was bidding to become the youngest person to sail round the world alone, unaided and without stopping. |
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18th May 2017, 07:11 PM | #90 |
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And by a strange coincidence odds on at 4-5 was also the odds Ladbrokes were giving of Hillary being elected
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7404666.html |
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The Australian Family Association's John Morrissey was aghast when he learned Jessica Watson was bidding to become the youngest person to sail round the world alone, unaided and without stopping. |
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18th May 2017, 07:29 PM | #91 |
Straussian
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At this point, trying to remove Trump is like getting rid of Saddam Hussein. Why bother? He's already contained. Keep him in office for the mid-terms, and let him try to run for re-election.
Impeachment (and conviction) lets us off too easy. I think someone in another thread compared Trump to national chemotherapy. Elect a clown, expect the circus. |
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Cain: Don't be a homo. Diablo: What's that supposed to mean? Cain: It's a heteronormative remark meant to be taken at face-value. |
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18th May 2017, 08:04 PM | #92 |
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18th May 2017, 08:26 PM | #93 |
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Hello. |
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18th May 2017, 11:23 PM | #94 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I agree with this to some extent. If Trump is contained and ensures the retard vote is dead for a generation or two then his election and serving one term could be a painful treatment the country needed to get back on track.
It also depends on the extent of beating Republicans get in 2018 and 2020. If it's severe enough for the party to conduct a purge of retards, if it splits into a conservative and retard wings, then it could be good for the country, overall. The only problem then is that it could take many, many years for a non-democrat to be elected president. This too is problematic for democracy. McHrozni |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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18th May 2017, 11:39 PM | #95 |
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The trouble is that it's all a rather big IF
An alternative is that it doesn't play out that way. The GOP is happy with Trump as President because he draws all the flak while they get on with the business of transferring wealth from the poor to the rich AND he delivers the 20-25% of the US electorate who are his base, many of whom would otherwise not vote. A combination of Gerrymandering in the House and electoral statistics in the Senate means that the GOP hang onto control of both in 2018, get another SCOTUS appointee or two in and get their tax cuts implemented. By 2020, the effects of the tax cuts are being felt in terms of a short term bubble fuelled by government debt and enough people have got used to having a man-child as President to re-elect him. Rather than lancing the boil of the "retard wing", as you call them, this further empowers them and the GOP remember that, like Reagan and Dubya, it's good to have a useless figurehead to act as a focus while you get on with pushing forward your legislation. They continue to nominate "colourful" candidates because they get elected (in stark contrast to white-bread, Trumplike candidates and Trumplike Presidents become the new norm |
19th May 2017, 12:06 AM | #96 |
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I think the big IF is whether Mueller finds clear criminal wrongdoings by Trump and his campaign. That should make him toxic, regardless of his base, since it would taint the GOP at least until 2020 if they stick with a known crook - again.
As usual, the question for the Republicans is: can Trump survive this? No one really thought he could beat the Hollywood Access tapes. Can he beat the Comey memos? Let's face it: if anyone can, it's him. |
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19th May 2017, 12:50 AM | #97 |
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That's not how gerrymandering works at all. If you want to abuse it to increase your vote share you need to have constituencies you want to win rather diverse, with a large block of your core supporters plus as many other groups as you can afford. Your candidates will win with small margins.
You need to stick other constituencies in as monolithic blocs as possible, where they'll elect your opponents with overwhelming margins, your candidates there should be defeated with hefty margins, exceeding 40 points easily. The tendency of demographic groups to self-segregate (there is nothing modern about it by the way) will do more damage to gerrymandering than anything else. The upshot of this is the Democrats have a very real shot at taking the House, perhaps even score an overwhelming majority. Most of their seats are as safe as they can get, but a substantial portion of Republican seats are competitive. If they make the election a referendum on a lame duck president more than 2/3 of the country wants impeached (a realistic prospect) the only seats Republicans can be calm about are the ones Democrats gerrymandered to disfranchise them. McHrozni |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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19th May 2017, 12:51 AM | #98 |
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The biggest problem with this plan is that it doesn't account for the occupant of the Oval Office being Commander-in-Chief of the military. If there's a crisis and the nation passed on a chance to flush the hellbeast out of the capitol, it could turn into a monstrous mistake. It can't even competently manage its own staff!
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19th May 2017, 02:06 AM | #99 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I don't see this as being a very significant factor. No military force in the world can challenge the might of the US military and the ones who come the closest are mostly close US allies. It's true enough that incompetent management from above could make any such resolution more costly to the US forces, but that's about it.
There are only two likely significant flashpoints at this time: North Korea and the Baltics. North Korean military is a joke and wouldn't stand a chance defeating the South in a scenario where North Korea launches an invasion, their only threat is the danger their emplaced guns pose to Seoul. Baltics would require a major Russian mobilization and Russia would be faced with the rest of NATO as well. European NATO allies are able to match Russian forces man for man, tank for tank, plane for plane, if Russia sends the entire military there - including the forces in the Far East, Ukraine, Georgia and the Caucasus, where they're needed to defend against insurgents. Even if both things happen at the same time the greatest threat would come from Trump winning popular support from rally around the flag effect. McHrozni |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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19th May 2017, 02:48 AM | #100 |
Penultimate Amazing
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What odds did Ladbrokes give for a Trump presidency?
I don't believe Putin tried to tilt the election in Trump's favor. I think Putin had the same analysis from the same pundits, and like everybody else he predicted Hillary Clinton to win. Whatever he did, it should be interpreted with the expectation that Hillary would win. Anyway, unless Ladbrokes predicted a Trump presidency, I don't think they have the demonstrated competency to accurately predict a Trump impeachment. |
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There is no Antimemetics Division. |
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19th May 2017, 02:49 AM | #101 |
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There is no Antimemetics Division. |
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19th May 2017, 03:03 AM | #102 |
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In any case, apart from initially "making the market", Ladbrokes (and other bookmakers) don't require insight or predictive power, they are just trying to balance the risk so that no matter how the situation turns out, they'll make money on it.
That the odds have shortened significantly doesn't mean that they think that the outcome is more likely but that their punters do, have bet accordingly and then Ladbrokes adjust the odds as necessary. Of course an analysis of what happened to Trump's odds just before the election may give an insight into how well Ladbrokes' punters predicted the situation but even then they could be a completely different set of people. |
19th May 2017, 03:32 AM | #103 |
Papa Funkosophy
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I agree that he was not trying to tilt the election in Trump's favor. He was likely trying to tilt the election against Clinton or, at least, to make her election look as shady as she accused Putin's election of being. However, after a certain point, those goals become identical. Naturally, he was doing it because he thought she'd win. Otherwise, why do anything at all?
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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19th May 2017, 05:25 AM | #104 |
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Putin predicted Hilary would win? When did that happen?? The conclusion based on the evidence is that the Russians intereferred with the USA election in the attempt to make Trump win and he did.
Ladbrokes' odds are irrelevant. Betting odds do not determine the actual outcome of any event. The impeachment of Trump will be based on the findings of the Special Counsel. I would bet that Trump is going to be impeached based on the fact that he has been shown to be a pathological liar and have appeared to have made claims about the former FBI director that are far from the truth. The day is coming when Trump will hear the words "You are fired". |
19th May 2017, 05:38 AM | #105 |
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I've always believed that cluelessness evolved as an adaptation to allow the truly appalling to live with themselves. - G. B. Trudeau A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. - Kay, Men in Black. Enjoy every sandwich. - Warren Zevon |
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19th May 2017, 06:20 AM | #106 |
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Questions, comments, queries, bitches, complaints, rude gestures and/or remarks? |
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19th May 2017, 06:30 AM | #107 |
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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19th May 2017, 07:43 AM | #108 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Oh please stop. He's a bad POTUS, but must one turn this thread into a discussion of "(Metaphorically, of course.)" sexual slurs?
I can't stand the pos POTUS, but these kind of slurs are what we can easily imagine coming from Donald Trump himself during the 2016 campaign. |
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19th May 2017, 08:09 AM | #109 |
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Welcome to not the point. The beast occupying the Oval Office is abysmally stupid in addition to its myriad of other faults. Not only could we end up in a war for little good reason (again) but it could easily choose the wrong target.
Quote:
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19th May 2017, 08:30 AM | #110 |
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It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.
Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach lasting more than a year of investigation. If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term. |
19th May 2017, 08:38 AM | #111 |
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Impeachment in the House requires only a simple majority, but the Senate needs to convict with a 2/3 supermajority. Even in the very unlikely event that the Democrats would take every Senate seat in the 2018 midterms, they wouldn't have a 2/3 majority. So ultimately, it comes down to Republican support.
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19th May 2017, 08:51 AM | #112 |
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There was no impeachment vote on Nixon. He was informed that if there was one, he would lose.
The Democrats need control of the Senate for the Impeachment to pass. Times change. Loyalty to party is of paramount importance, above loyalty to country. There would have to be overwhelming evidence against Trump and even then a lot of Republicans will not vote to impeach. |
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I've always believed that cluelessness evolved as an adaptation to allow the truly appalling to live with themselves. - G. B. Trudeau A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. - Kay, Men in Black. Enjoy every sandwich. - Warren Zevon |
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19th May 2017, 08:53 AM | #113 |
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Again, if impeachment in the House requires a simple majority then once the Democrats take control of the House and the impeachment vote occurs after November 6 2018 then Trump is likely to be impeached or forced to resign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...lections,_2018
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19th May 2017, 08:56 AM | #114 |
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19th May 2017, 09:00 AM | #115 |
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I've always believed that cluelessness evolved as an adaptation to allow the truly appalling to live with themselves. - G. B. Trudeau A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. - Kay, Men in Black. Enjoy every sandwich. - Warren Zevon |
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19th May 2017, 09:05 AM | #116 |
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19th May 2017, 09:07 AM | #117 |
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19th May 2017, 09:10 AM | #118 |
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Technically, you're right there, but not with the highlighted conclusion - as Tony Stark, Spindrift and me have been trying to tell you. Impeachment does not mean removal of office, you need a subsequent Senate vote with 2/3 majority on that.
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"I think it is very beautiful for the poor to accept their lot, to share it with the passion of Christ. I think the world is being much helped by the suffering of the poor people." - "Saint" Teresa, the lying thieving Albanian dwarf "I think accuracy is important" - Vixen |
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19th May 2017, 09:16 AM | #119 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Donald Trump will resign because he wants to spend less time with his family.
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who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
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19th May 2017, 10:00 AM | #120 |
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Republicans will resist as long as possible, and they might find one or two new dodges in this list from Art Buchwald, c.1973:
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