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Tags | donald trump , political speculation |
View Poll Results: How long before Trump is gone? |
He won't last more than a year. | 25 | 37.31% | |
He'll last 2 years. | 9 | 13.43% | |
He'll make it to 2020 then he is toast. | 16 | 23.88% | |
Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025 | 17 | 25.37% | |
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll |
20th May 2017, 07:44 PM | #1 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 8,861
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How long before Trump is gone?
Many think Trump's Administration is toast.
Personally I think he may not be President a year from now. Others think he will last through 2020 but will lose to the Democrat. What say you? |
20th May 2017, 07:58 PM | #2 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2002
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A case could be made for several scenarios. Trouble is, the unknown variables that could yet come into play and affect the outcome (and as someone somewhere recently pointed out: he survived boasting about sexual assault, so bet against the guy at your peril).
For instance, enough momentum, and actual work could be building towards impeachment and removal from office. But say the all-too-easily imagined possibility of a sudden catastrophic event of some kind takes place. Like it or not, the citizenry tends to rally 'round the flag during perilous times. Were Mr. Trump to intentionally or accidentally manage things with some reasonable degree of competence (I know, I know), I could see congress becoming forgiving of past out-of-sight, out-of-mind transgressions. And with that, items of impeachment are shelved. Or a shoe could drop soon WRT Flynn/Comey/thatdachshundhe'sbeenhumpingwhatyouhaven'theard. Time will tell. |
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20th May 2017, 08:05 PM | #3 |
Penultimate Amazing
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He'll make it until the next election, during which time Hilary Clinton will have learned nothing and will run against him and lose again.
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"Sufficiently advanced malice is indistinguishable from incompetence. = godless Dave |
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20th May 2017, 08:08 PM | #4 |
Straussian
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 15,419
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According to the following prediction market, you can buy shares for Trump not being president by the end of 2017 at 26 pennies a pop:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5...-end-2017#data Trump being impeached in 2017 sells for 20 cents: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5...eached-in-2017 This strikes me as weird. What these buyers seem to be saying is that Trump is more likely to resign. Or they think impeachment means removal from office. I would guess that he serves out the term. I certainly do not expect movement with Congress held by Republicans, so after the mid-terms it might be another story. I do not expect him to win re-election (but then again, I didn't expect him to make it to Iowa). |
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20th May 2017, 09:22 PM | #5 |
Banned
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After his first un-constitutional executive order, I said he wouldn't last another 9 months.
I like my odds, currently. |
20th May 2017, 09:58 PM | #6 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 37,581
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2 full terms if he chooses to run for a second.
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20th May 2017, 10:18 PM | #7 |
Non credunt, semper verificare
Join Date: Aug 2003
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Posts: 14,571
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I voted "Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025" because I am a *********** pessimist and I think the retard which voted for him in the first palce, will do it again in a heartbeat, some may even do it just to spite "leftist" e.g. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.
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20th May 2017, 10:39 PM | #8 |
Maledictorian
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 22,552
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There have been a dozen times when Trump would have been a goner if the normal rules for politicians applied to him.
But if the investigation leave room for doubt, that would be enough for the Republicans to stick to their untrained orange monkey as long as he keeps signing their bills. |
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“Don’t blame me. I voted for Kodos.” |
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20th May 2017, 10:55 PM | #9 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 3,725
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I voted 2 years. Trump has more fatal flaws than a Shakespearean character. I read that there are at least a dozen individual leakers. The FBI and the intelligence community are now his enemies. The media is his enemy. He can't help but cultivate more and more enemies and he can't fire himself out the situation. He'll either get impeached or quit or die from the stress of it all.
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20th May 2017, 11:05 PM | #10 |
Graduate Poster
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21st May 2017, 12:46 AM | #11 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I think he's going to resign. The American people and Congress are going to make him not want to be president anymore.
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21st May 2017, 01:25 AM | #12 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Posts: 32,635
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1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it. |
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21st May 2017, 01:30 AM | #13 |
Illuminator
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The guy is in his 70's, in terrible shape, doesn't believe in exercise and eats junk food like a teenager, I wouldn't be surprised if a stroke or a MCI result from his frequent tantrums.
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21st May 2017, 01:46 AM | #14 |
Seasonally Disaffected
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"When you believe in things you don't understand, then you suffer . . . " - Stevie Wonder. "It looks like the saddest, most crookedest candy corn in an otherwise normal bag of candy corns." Stormy Daniels I hate bigots. |
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21st May 2017, 05:02 AM | #15 |
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21st May 2017, 05:03 AM | #16 |
Banned
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21st May 2017, 05:10 AM | #17 |
Papa Funkosophy
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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21st May 2017, 05:26 AM | #18 |
Banned
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Agreed, Unchurch.
And as Trump has noted he could shoot someone in the street and not lose a vote...but he didn't 'win' by a landslide. Hillary got more votes than Obama, 3 million more than Trump, and lost. Had the Democrats nominated Bernie or Joe...it would not have been a race. Trump isn't gaining support. His actions are driving his opposition into the streets, and we'll see in two years, to the polls. While not perfect, I believe our system fully capable of dealing with inept corruption. |
21st May 2017, 05:41 AM | #19 |
imperfecto del subjuntivo
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I voted something I don't wish nor I'm extremely afraid of. How did you vote? (What...? is meaningless).
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Horrible dipsomaniacs and other addicts, be gone and get treated.These fora are full of scientists and specialists. Most of them turn back to pumpkins the second they log out. If the horse reasons the Kentucky Derby is over |
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21st May 2017, 05:52 AM | #20 |
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Good morning. I chose that he will make it to 2020. There is a very slight chance that he might get impeached by the house but I can't see him being removed from office. There is no backbone in the Republican members to make that move. Even the few that have made comments of concern, walk them back and get right back in line within a few days, usually returning to the talking points of "I've seen no evidence of collusion with Russia or So and so said they have no evidence of collusion, as if those people are drawing conclusions at to the ongoing investigation. I really like the fact that these guys who have been saying this investigation has gone on too long already are now upset that the special counsel has come in and now it make them look like their investigations are not as important. The main reason the special counsel was brought in is because their investigations appeared to be spinning their wheels. On top of that, several Trump voters that I know, who get their news from certain places, have a very different view of reality. Many think "The Wall" is under construction, that 10's of thousands of jobs have come back to the USA because of Trump. The "illegals " are being tossed out at record levels and no Muslims are coming in. Wall Street is booming and that will make them wealthy. That he has repealed Obamacare. He stands up to the establishment and is shaking up the government. Draining the swamp. Improved relations with Russia, China, and has put North Korea and Iran in their place.
They don't care one bit about collusion or business deals that might have been considered inappropriate under another president. I suspect that no matter what he Trump does, 30% of the population will continue to view his actions favorably. I'm not so sure he will get re-elected however there will probably be a wider range of candidates this time around. I suspect that the "established government" will stick so much more than it did before the last election that there may be more than even three parties that might have a serious chance at the presidency. |
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"I think it's better to have ideas. You can change an idea. Changing a belief is trickier... A belief's a dangerous thing. People die for it. People kill for it." Rufus, the 13th apostle, Dogma "You can't prove air." Sylvia Browne John Kardel |
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21st May 2017, 06:42 AM | #21 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I don't expect Trump to be impeached, not by a Republican Congress anyway. After 2018, if the Democrats take back the House and Senate? That's possible. In a way I hope Trump doesn't get impeached unless he does something so outrageous that impeachment is widely supported by the public including Republicans. I'm afraid removing Donnie by impeachment will create so much division it will poison the democratic process for years to come. That the Republicans will embark on a political vendetta against Democrats that will last for years.
If you look at photos of presidents, the stress of the office begins to take a physical toll even after just a few years. I think it's more likely Trump might resign or suffer some kind of medical event that forces him from office. I think the latter possibility might be the most likely. Trump has never been under the kind of pressure, scrutiny and stress he's under now. Might catch up to him in a hurry. |
21st May 2017, 07:09 AM | #22 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 18,667
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Trying to enumerate the possibilities, plus my felt probabilities (those probably won't add up to exactly 100%):
1. Trump resigns - 0%. That is simply not a thing within his personality. He will always fight fight fight and of course misperceive and miscontrue reality. Blame all the world, he will blame his wife and kids and dead grand-parents in due course, but never himself. 2. Impeachment - <2%. Even if the Republicans grew some balls, this would take way too long. More likely that the process starts when Dems win one or two houses back in the midterms, but then it's too late, too. 3. Becomes incapacitated or dead due to medical trouble - certainly a possibility, perhaps in the range 5%-30% within the next 3.5 years, and considerably more likely if he makes it to a second term. 4. Loses Republican primary in 2020 - 5%-10%. This would be unprecedented, I'd guess, but lots in Trump's presidency will have been unprecedented by then. It'd be much safer for the Republican party to oust Trump in a democratic election than through impeachment. The party will be greatly interested in fielding another candidate, because otherwise... 5. Trump loses election in 2020 to Democrat opponent - 50%. Of course much higher than that if he gets there in the first place. As has been pointed out, he may maintain his deluded, stupid core voter base, but not win substantially in addition to those, while the opposition will be be much stronger. 6. Assassination - no percentage given for the sake of decency. I think this is not an insignificant possibilty. Too many enemies everywhere, and he will amass many many more before he's up for re-election. 7. Will serve out 2 terms - unlikely. However, likelihood will rise under certain circumstance, such as a big, fierce war. And frankly, I am rather convinced that Trump will want to fight (and win) a war. And then another. And then a bigger one. To become the greatest field marshal and war hero EVER. Wouldn't want to leave that honor to a Frenchman (Napoleon) or Italian (Gaius Iulius *********** Caesar), would you!? ETA: Of the poll options, "make it to 2020" is closest to my largest probabilities. So that was my vote. |
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Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote) The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of the Conservatives is to prevent the mistakes from being corrected. (Gilbert Keith Chesterton) |
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21st May 2017, 07:32 AM | #23 |
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21st May 2017, 07:41 AM | #24 |
Penultimate Amazing
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21st May 2017, 07:45 AM | #25 |
Philosopher
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I believe more evidence will come out, his poll numbers will drop further, it will become more clear that his agenda is toast, and he will simply resign.
Within 1 to 2 years. |
21st May 2017, 07:46 AM | #26 |
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21st May 2017, 07:53 AM | #27 |
Penultimate Amazing
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21st May 2017, 07:54 AM | #28 |
Thinker
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Seeing as how the White House is considering barring Mueller from investigating anyone his former law firm had represented. That would be: Kushner & Manafort, the investigation will go nowhere.
Trumps fans see the media reporting news as attacks on the orange one, because he says so. The wall not being built, Islam still being a religion and having to share buses with blacks will be blamed on the swamp which he will claim to drain, again, in 2020. His opponent will have sent an email, lock them up. So I voted that your stuck with him till 2025, he may declare himself supreme dictator for life but, the option wasn't there. |
21st May 2017, 07:57 AM | #29 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: NY
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I doubt the hardcore Trumpanzees will blame Donnie for anything. In fact, having heard some of them interviewed last Fall before the election, most of them seemed to imply that. They were asked, "Do you really think he can reopen the area factories, bring all those jobs back?" Many said, maybe not, "But at least we'll know he tried." The desire to believe something can be very powerful, especially among people who don't look very deeply at why they want to believe it. And Trump knows that. He knows what to say and how to say it.
Some Trump voters said that voting for Trump was a way to "give the finger," to the whole Washington/media/liberal elite establishment. So many of them used those words, "Give the finger." In that sense, with those voters, it probably doesn't even matter what he does. Just the fact he was elected is enough. |
21st May 2017, 08:00 AM | #30 |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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21st May 2017, 08:37 AM | #31 |
Penultimate Amazing
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21st May 2017, 09:12 AM | #32 |
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21st May 2017, 09:17 AM | #33 |
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21st May 2017, 09:21 AM | #34 |
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21st May 2017, 09:42 AM | #35 |
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21st May 2017, 11:33 AM | #36 |
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Remember Ariel Sharon?
Twice as overweight as Trump? Ordered lamb shoarma every night when working late? Ten years Trump's senior? After his stroke, he "lived" on for several years in a coma. Remember Churchill? Old stressed, suffered anxiety attacks, a heavy smoker, a heavy drinker, obese. Some people are really, really resilient. |
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Death to Videodrome! Long live the new flesh! |
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21st May 2017, 11:45 AM | #37 |
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It's certainly possible. But remember again that those guys both lived the stress of politics and war their whole lives. Whatever resilience they had wasn't just newly acquired or proven in old age.
Trump on the other hand is moving into a whole new world of stress and responsibility and every indication is that he's not prepared for it. He's taking on a very new stress at 70 after a long career that despite his supporters beliefs was far less taxing. Trump isn't a tough old bastard like those two. And given that the office just aged Obama about 25 years in only two terms, I'm not saying Trump will necessarily have a health failure, but it isn't particularly unlikely. |
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The weakness of all Utopias is this, ... They first assume that no man will want more than his share, and then are very ingenious in explaining whether his share will be delivered by motorcar or balloon. -G.K. CHESTERTON |
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21st May 2017, 12:52 PM | #38 |
Illuminator
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I picked that he will last til 2020.
He will decide in late 2018 to decline running to pursue something he has convinced himself even more bigly imortant (and then promptly get back to the TRUMP business) saying he achieved what he set out to do. He will say many impulsive things that hurt the Republican nomination process. He will act as if he would win 100%, for sure, let me tell you, a tremendous landslide, had he decided to run. Perhaps he will even start another party (or threaten to) and defect if midterms do not go well. Create the BEST party America has ever known. Handpick his 'successor' candidate. Platform details to be revealed at some future date. Has that ever happened that a sitting president changes parties when they cannot operate within their own? |
21st May 2017, 01:17 PM | #39 |
Poisoned Waffles
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You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara. |
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21st May 2017, 03:04 PM | #40 |
Philosopher
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41% say he will not last past June 2018.
We are as wise as we are attractive. |
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