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Tags donald trump , political speculation

View Poll Results: How long before Trump is gone?
He won't last more than a year. 25 37.31%
He'll last 2 years. 9 13.43%
He'll make it to 2020 then he is toast. 16 23.88%
Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025 17 25.37%
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 20th May 2017, 07:44 PM   #1
Hercules56
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How long before Trump is gone?

Many think Trump's Administration is toast.

Personally I think he may not be President a year from now.

Others think he will last through 2020 but will lose to the Democrat.

What say you?
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Old 20th May 2017, 07:58 PM   #2
Regnad Kcin
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A case could be made for several scenarios. Trouble is, the unknown variables that could yet come into play and affect the outcome (and as someone somewhere recently pointed out: he survived boasting about sexual assault, so bet against the guy at your peril).

For instance, enough momentum, and actual work could be building towards impeachment and removal from office. But say the all-too-easily imagined possibility of a sudden catastrophic event of some kind takes place. Like it or not, the citizenry tends to rally 'round the flag during perilous times. Were Mr. Trump to intentionally or accidentally manage things with some reasonable degree of competence (I know, I know), I could see congress becoming forgiving of past out-of-sight, out-of-mind transgressions. And with that, items of impeachment are shelved.

Or a shoe could drop soon WRT Flynn/Comey/thatdachshundhe'sbeenhumpingwhatyouhaven'theard. Time will tell.
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Old 20th May 2017, 08:05 PM   #3
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He'll make it until the next election, during which time Hilary Clinton will have learned nothing and will run against him and lose again.
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Old 20th May 2017, 08:08 PM   #4
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According to the following prediction market, you can buy shares for Trump not being president by the end of 2017 at 26 pennies a pop:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5...-end-2017#data

Trump being impeached in 2017 sells for 20 cents:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5...eached-in-2017

This strikes me as weird. What these buyers seem to be saying is that Trump is more likely to resign. Or they think impeachment means removal from office.

I would guess that he serves out the term. I certainly do not expect movement with Congress held by Republicans, so after the mid-terms it might be another story. I do not expect him to win re-election (but then again, I didn't expect him to make it to Iowa).
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Old 20th May 2017, 09:22 PM   #5
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After his first un-constitutional executive order, I said he wouldn't last another 9 months.

I like my odds, currently.
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Old 20th May 2017, 09:58 PM   #6
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2 full terms if he chooses to run for a second.
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Old 20th May 2017, 10:18 PM   #7
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I voted "Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025" because I am a *********** pessimist and I think the retard which voted for him in the first palce, will do it again in a heartbeat, some may even do it just to spite "leftist" e.g. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.
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Old 20th May 2017, 10:39 PM   #8
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There have been a dozen times when Trump would have been a goner if the normal rules for politicians applied to him.
But if the investigation leave room for doubt, that would be enough for the Republicans to stick to their untrained orange monkey as long as he keeps signing their bills.
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Old 20th May 2017, 10:55 PM   #9
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I voted 2 years. Trump has more fatal flaws than a Shakespearean character. I read that there are at least a dozen individual leakers. The FBI and the intelligence community are now his enemies. The media is his enemy. He can't help but cultivate more and more enemies and he can't fire himself out the situation. He'll either get impeached or quit or die from the stress of it all.
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Old 20th May 2017, 11:05 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
There have been a dozen times when Trump would have been a goner if the normal rules for politicians applied to him.
Agreed. If someone had described Trump's political career to me five years ago as a prediction, I would thought it was the far-fetched plot for some lousy potboiler novel. Real life is absurdly unrealistic and poorly written.
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Old 21st May 2017, 12:46 AM   #11
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I think he's going to resign. The American people and Congress are going to make him not want to be president anymore.
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Old 21st May 2017, 01:25 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I think he's going to resign. The American people and Congress are going to make him not want to be president anymore.
I agree that he will, not sure how long it will take though. He wants to be praised by all, and the fact that he isn't is eating him up. His unpopularity is eating at him and will, eventually, cause a meltdown.
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Old 21st May 2017, 01:30 AM   #13
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The guy is in his 70's, in terrible shape, doesn't believe in exercise and eats junk food like a teenager, I wouldn't be surprised if a stroke or a MCI result from his frequent tantrums.
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Old 21st May 2017, 01:46 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
How long before Trump is gone?
He left yesterday.


What??
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Old 21st May 2017, 05:02 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
2 full terms if he chooses to run for a second.
Based on WHAT analysis?
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Old 21st May 2017, 05:03 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by portlandatheist View Post
I voted 2 years. Trump has more fatal flaws than a Shakespearean character. I read that there are at least a dozen individual leakers. The FBI and the intelligence community are now his enemies. The media is his enemy. He can't help but cultivate more and more enemies and he can't fire himself out the situation. He'll either get impeached or quit or die from the stress of it all.
Yup.
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Old 21st May 2017, 05:10 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by King of the Americas View Post
Based on WHAT analysis?
Arguably, this one:
Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
I voted "Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025" because I am a *********** pessimist and I think the retard which voted for him in the first palce, will do it again in a heartbeat, some may even do it just to spite "leftist" e.g. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.
I don't know the percentage of Trump voters who fall into this category, but that they exist and Trump won at all suggests that it is possible. Rationality is under represented in the American electorate.
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Old 21st May 2017, 05:26 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Arguably, this one:I don't know the percentage of Trump voters who fall into this category, but that they exist and Trump won at all suggests that it is possible. Rationality is under represented in the American electorate.
Agreed, Unchurch.

And as Trump has noted he could shoot someone in the street and not lose a vote...but he didn't 'win' by a landslide. Hillary got more votes than Obama, 3 million more than Trump, and lost.

Had the Democrats nominated Bernie or Joe...it would not have been a race.

Trump isn't gaining support. His actions are driving his opposition into the streets, and we'll see in two years, to the polls.

While not perfect, I believe our system fully capable of dealing with inept corruption.

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Old 21st May 2017, 05:41 AM   #19
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I voted something I don't wish nor I'm extremely afraid of. How did you vote? (What...? is meaningless).
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Old 21st May 2017, 05:52 AM   #20
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Good morning. I chose that he will make it to 2020. There is a very slight chance that he might get impeached by the house but I can't see him being removed from office. There is no backbone in the Republican members to make that move. Even the few that have made comments of concern, walk them back and get right back in line within a few days, usually returning to the talking points of "I've seen no evidence of collusion with Russia or So and so said they have no evidence of collusion, as if those people are drawing conclusions at to the ongoing investigation. I really like the fact that these guys who have been saying this investigation has gone on too long already are now upset that the special counsel has come in and now it make them look like their investigations are not as important. The main reason the special counsel was brought in is because their investigations appeared to be spinning their wheels. On top of that, several Trump voters that I know, who get their news from certain places, have a very different view of reality. Many think "The Wall" is under construction, that 10's of thousands of jobs have come back to the USA because of Trump. The "illegals " are being tossed out at record levels and no Muslims are coming in. Wall Street is booming and that will make them wealthy. That he has repealed Obamacare. He stands up to the establishment and is shaking up the government. Draining the swamp. Improved relations with Russia, China, and has put North Korea and Iran in their place.
They don't care one bit about collusion or business deals that might have been considered inappropriate under another president. I suspect that no matter what he Trump does, 30% of the population will continue to view his actions favorably. I'm not so sure he will get re-elected however there will probably be a wider range of candidates this time around. I suspect that the "established government" will stick so much more than it did before the last election that there may be more than even three parties that might have a serious chance at the presidency.
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Old 21st May 2017, 06:42 AM   #21
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I don't expect Trump to be impeached, not by a Republican Congress anyway. After 2018, if the Democrats take back the House and Senate? That's possible. In a way I hope Trump doesn't get impeached unless he does something so outrageous that impeachment is widely supported by the public including Republicans. I'm afraid removing Donnie by impeachment will create so much division it will poison the democratic process for years to come. That the Republicans will embark on a political vendetta against Democrats that will last for years.

If you look at photos of presidents, the stress of the office begins to take a physical toll even after just a few years. I think it's more likely Trump might resign or suffer some kind of medical event that forces him from office. I think the latter possibility might be the most likely. Trump has never been under the kind of pressure, scrutiny and stress he's under now. Might catch up to him in a hurry.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:09 AM   #22
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Trying to enumerate the possibilities, plus my felt probabilities (those probably won't add up to exactly 100%):

1. Trump resigns - 0%. That is simply not a thing within his personality. He will always fight fight fight and of course misperceive and miscontrue reality. Blame all the world, he will blame his wife and kids and dead grand-parents in due course, but never himself.

2. Impeachment - <2%. Even if the Republicans grew some balls, this would take way too long. More likely that the process starts when Dems win one or two houses back in the midterms, but then it's too late, too.

3. Becomes incapacitated or dead due to medical trouble - certainly a possibility, perhaps in the range 5%-30% within the next 3.5 years, and considerably more likely if he makes it to a second term.

4. Loses Republican primary in 2020 - 5%-10%. This would be unprecedented, I'd guess, but lots in Trump's presidency will have been unprecedented by then. It'd be much safer for the Republican party to oust Trump in a democratic election than through impeachment. The party will be greatly interested in fielding another candidate, because otherwise...

5. Trump loses election in 2020 to Democrat opponent - 50%. Of course much higher than that if he gets there in the first place. As has been pointed out, he may maintain his deluded, stupid core voter base, but not win substantially in addition to those, while the opposition will be be much stronger.

6. Assassination - no percentage given for the sake of decency. I think this is not an insignificant possibilty. Too many enemies everywhere, and he will amass many many more before he's up for re-election.

7. Will serve out 2 terms - unlikely. However, likelihood will rise under certain circumstance, such as a big, fierce war. And frankly, I am rather convinced that Trump will want to fight (and win) a war. And then another. And then a bigger one. To become the greatest field marshal and war hero EVER. Wouldn't want to leave that honor to a Frenchman (Napoleon) or Italian (Gaius Iulius *********** Caesar), would you!?


ETA: Of the poll options, "make it to 2020" is closest to my largest probabilities. So that was my vote.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:32 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
...

If you look at photos of presidents, the stress of the office begins to take a physical toll even after just a few years. I think it's more likely Trump might resign or suffer some kind of medical event that forces him from office. I think the latter possibility might be the most likely. Trump has never been under the kind of pressure, scrutiny and stress he's under now. Might catch up to him in a hurry.
Now add that he is the oldest person to take this office...
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:41 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I agree that he will, not sure how long it will take though. He wants to be praised by all, and the fact that he isn't is eating him up. His unpopularity is eating at him and will, eventually, cause a meltdown.
He will reach a tipping point when the crowds stop coming to his rallies. That will happen when the rust belt figures out that coal and manufacturing jobs aren't coming back.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:45 AM   #25
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I believe more evidence will come out, his poll numbers will drop further, it will become more clear that his agenda is toast, and he will simply resign.

Within 1 to 2 years.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:46 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
He will reach a tipping point when the crowds stop coming to his rallies. That will happen when the rust belt figures out that coal and manufacturing jobs aren't coming back.
Maybe. But they also have to be willing to blame Trump for that failure and not Deep State, RINOs, "liberal" judges, the portion of the media they consider mainstream or any of the other usual suspects. I have no idea if that will actually happen.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:53 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
Maybe. But they also have to be willing to blame Trump for that failure and not Deep State, RINOs, "liberal" judges, the portion of the media they consider mainstream or any of the other usual suspects. I have no idea if that will actually happen.
They don't need to blame him, just lose enthusiasm. He generated a lot of enthusiasm by saying he was going to drain the swamp and shack things up. When his supporters realize he can't or won't they will just stop showing up.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:54 AM   #28
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Seeing as how the White House is considering barring Mueller from investigating anyone his former law firm had represented. That would be: Kushner & Manafort, the investigation will go nowhere.
Trumps fans see the media reporting news as attacks on the orange one, because he says so.
The wall not being built, Islam still being a religion and having to share buses with blacks will be blamed on the swamp which he will claim to drain, again, in 2020.
His opponent will have sent an email, lock them up.

So I voted that your stuck with him till 2025, he may declare himself supreme dictator for life but, the option wasn't there.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:57 AM   #29
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I doubt the hardcore Trumpanzees will blame Donnie for anything. In fact, having heard some of them interviewed last Fall before the election, most of them seemed to imply that. They were asked, "Do you really think he can reopen the area factories, bring all those jobs back?" Many said, maybe not, "But at least we'll know he tried." The desire to believe something can be very powerful, especially among people who don't look very deeply at why they want to believe it. And Trump knows that. He knows what to say and how to say it.

Some Trump voters said that voting for Trump was a way to "give the finger," to the whole Washington/media/liberal elite establishment. So many of them used those words, "Give the finger." In that sense, with those voters, it probably doesn't even matter what he does. Just the fact he was elected is enough.
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Old 21st May 2017, 08:00 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by King of the Americas View Post
Now add that he is the oldest person to take this office...
So, Melania,what attracted you to the septuganerian billionaire with a junk food diet?
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Old 21st May 2017, 08:37 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
So, Melania,what attracted you to the septuganerian billionaire with a junk food diet?
That's going to be a fight for the records books. Trump's spawn and widow fighting over the remains like vultures.
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Old 21st May 2017, 09:12 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
That's going to be a fight for the records books. Trump's spawn and widow fighting over the remains like vultures.
With any luck we'll see it during November sweeps
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Old 21st May 2017, 09:17 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
So, Melania,what attracted you to the septuganerian billionaire with a junk food diet?
"I was a poor hot hooker from Russia, ordered out of a catalog. OR, I'm a deep cover Russian spy..."

*Pure Speculation* sorta
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Old 21st May 2017, 09:21 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by newyorkguy View Post
I doubt the hardcore Trumpanzees will blame Donnie for anything. ...
On talk radio ...Trump is as pure as the baby Jesus.

He's a great man being subverted by a corrupt system.
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Old 21st May 2017, 09:42 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
I voted "Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025" because I am a *********** pessimist and I think the retard which voted for him in the first palce, will do it again in a heartbeat, some may even do it just to spite "leftist" e.g. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.
You've read my mind perfectly. Plus it'll make me feel better if I'm proved wrong.
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Old 21st May 2017, 11:33 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by Ausmerican View Post
The guy is in his 70's, in terrible shape, doesn't believe in exercise and eats junk food like a teenager, I wouldn't be surprised if a stroke or a MCI result from his frequent tantrums.
Remember Ariel Sharon?

Twice as overweight as Trump? Ordered lamb shoarma every night when working late? Ten years Trump's senior?

After his stroke, he "lived" on for several years in a coma.

Remember Churchill?

Old stressed, suffered anxiety attacks, a heavy smoker, a heavy drinker, obese.

Some people are really, really resilient.
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Old 21st May 2017, 11:45 AM   #37
Cavemonster
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Remember Ariel Sharon?

Twice as overweight as Trump? Ordered lamb shoarma every night when working late? Ten years Trump's senior?

After his stroke, he "lived" on for several years in a coma.

Remember Churchill?

Old stressed, suffered anxiety attacks, a heavy smoker, a heavy drinker, obese.

Some people are really, really resilient.
It's certainly possible. But remember again that those guys both lived the stress of politics and war their whole lives. Whatever resilience they had wasn't just newly acquired or proven in old age.

Trump on the other hand is moving into a whole new world of stress and responsibility and every indication is that he's not prepared for it. He's taking on a very new stress at 70 after a long career that despite his supporters beliefs was far less taxing.

Trump isn't a tough old bastard like those two. And given that the office just aged Obama about 25 years in only two terms, I'm not saying Trump will necessarily have a health failure, but it isn't particularly unlikely.
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Old 21st May 2017, 12:52 PM   #38
Sherkeu
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I picked that he will last til 2020.

He will decide in late 2018 to decline running to pursue something he has convinced himself even more bigly imortant (and then promptly get back to the TRUMP business) saying he achieved what he set out to do.

He will say many impulsive things that hurt the Republican nomination process. He will act as if he would win 100%, for sure, let me tell you, a tremendous landslide, had he decided to run.

Perhaps he will even start another party (or threaten to) and defect if midterms do not go well. Create the BEST party America has ever known. Handpick his 'successor' candidate. Platform details to be revealed at some future date.
Has that ever happened that a sitting president changes parties when they cannot operate within their own?

Last edited by Sherkeu; 21st May 2017 at 01:01 PM.
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Old 21st May 2017, 01:17 PM   #39
TragicMonkey
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Remember Ariel Sharon?

Twice as overweight as Trump? Ordered lamb shoarma every night when working late? Ten years Trump's senior?

After his stroke, he "lived" on for several years in a coma.

Remember Churchill?

Old stressed, suffered anxiety attacks, a heavy smoker, a heavy drinker, obese.

Some people are really, really resilient.
In Trump's case he's long-lived because nobody in the afterlife wants him to arrive there.
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Old 21st May 2017, 03:04 PM   #40
Hercules56
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41% say he will not last past June 2018.

We are as wise as we are attractive.
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