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Tags | donald trump , political speculation |
View Poll Results: How long before Trump is gone? |
He won't last more than a year. | 25 | 37.31% | |
He'll last 2 years. | 9 | 13.43% | |
He'll make it to 2020 then he is toast. | 16 | 23.88% | |
Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025 | 17 | 25.37% | |
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll |
21st May 2017, 03:27 PM | #41 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 60,375
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If he continues the way he has, he will not make it until 2020.
He is losing the uncommitted or independent voters, who gave him the victory in 2016. And I suspect a number of the "Hold your nose and vote" Republcians who voted for him are totally disillusioned with him. The mistake people are making is thinking that everybody who voted for Trump is one of the hardcore supporters. I would say the percentatage of Trump voters who are of the "I could kill somebody in Times square and they would still support me" is a lot smaller then anybody thinks.And I am not sure starting a major war is a guarantee of relection. I give you LBJ as an example'Vietnam was so unpopular that he decided not to run because he knew he would lose. |
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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21st May 2017, 03:44 PM | #42 |
Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो
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Posts: 11,679
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He won't get forced out mid-term, for two reasons. First, Democrats, the only party anybody seriously suggests might do it, don't really want him gone because the dysfunction he introduces among republicans is the main thing holding Republicans back right now; under President Pence they'd be more unified and have more of a chance of being productive. (Logically, the way it should work is that if a President gets kicked out then the VP goes too, but that's not how it works, and in this case it would still yield another President Pence anyway.) And second, if it starts to look like there's any chance of it happening, he'll quit so he can try to spin it as his own choice for his own reasons.
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21st May 2017, 07:27 PM | #43 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,110
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Exactly. The last thing we want is for Trump to suddenly start getting a clue or be replaced by someone more competent. The more turmoil he creates the harder it is for Republicans to govern effectively (not that they are much good at it even in the best of times) and the stronger the next Democrat victory will be.
So far he hasn't disappointed, but I do fear the day he finally gets something right (hopefully by then it will be too little, too late). |
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We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good. |
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21st May 2017, 07:39 PM | #44 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 33,710
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I really can't place a vote. IMV, It's clear as can be that Trump is guilty of 2 serious crimes at a minimum. One being obstruction of justice and the second is violating the emoluments clause of the US Constitution. Both of which are reasons for Impeachment. The third reason to Impeach Trump isn't a crime but frankly is the best reason for Impeachment. The man is batcrap crazy.
But guessing what Congress will do is impossible. |
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Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get to me. . |
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21st May 2017, 07:45 PM | #45 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 4,680
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What about: On Planet X, Hillary is President.
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The Australian Family Association's John Morrissey was aghast when he learned Jessica Watson was bidding to become the youngest person to sail round the world alone, unaided and without stopping. |
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21st May 2017, 07:46 PM | #46 |
Poisoned Waffles
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 68,744
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Not entirely. Think of the wisest course of action. Then rule that out, they'd never do that one, not in a million years. Then think up a sensible action, a reasonable action, and a thoughtful action. Rule those out as well. Then think of two stupid actions, and imagine them being attempted simultaneously. Now think of one redeeming feature of the stupid actions and remove it. Now make it as ineffectual as it is stupid, tack on a tax cut for billionaires, and you have a pretty good idea of what Congress will do next.
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You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara. |
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21st May 2017, 08:37 PM | #47 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 20,570
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Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.
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21st May 2017, 08:54 PM | #48 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant. |
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21st May 2017, 08:58 PM | #49 |
Philosopher
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We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good. |
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21st May 2017, 09:26 PM | #50 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 33,710
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No its not. There are such things as diminishing returns. The biggest problem economically is the distribution of income and wealth. The argument made by the Arthur Laffers and Supply Siders of the world is a dishonest argument because there are more variables than just taxation. Tax cuts for the wealthy have a marginal and often a negative effect on the economy. Want to boost the economy, boost demand. We need to get more money in the hands of the masses not the few.
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Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get to me. . |
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21st May 2017, 09:42 PM | #51 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 9,626
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It isn't even a given that Trump is actually going to get tax "reform" done.
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21st May 2017, 10:47 PM | #52 |
Disorder of Kilopi
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: State of Flux
Posts: 17,621
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Trump or his surrogates are the only candidates the GOP will be fielding in the foreseeable future; makes no difference which feudal lord they choose as candidate for kingship. It's the bowing in awe and the chance to kiss blesséd coattails that count, so one can turn from the altar steps and razz the unwashed. Hubris, bright and shiny things, bullying as main modus operandi; this is the GOP and these are its voters. Gimme. Now. Move over. Cash! Oh precious cash!
An exaggeration? Hardly. Sixteen years is all it took to worship at the altar of Wahhabi Islam in exchange for green backs. That there is a yellow-back move. Typical. Delivered with all the non-analytical crap and weak sloganeering that works back home, before a sniggering crowd of financiers of terror that could only rejoice at the abject capitulation. |
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21st May 2017, 11:05 PM | #53 |
Straussian
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In 2006, Democrats won the House and the Senate, and they didn't impeach Bush (still the worst president of my lifetime).
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21st May 2017, 11:06 PM | #54 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2016
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I remembered the massive demonstrations in the streets and anti-war songs back home when I was in Vietnam and I was stationed with Johnson's son-in-law, Patrick Nugent, at Phan Rang airbase. In addition, the US military was very angry with Johnson's "rules-of-engagement" policy. Now, I see Trump all wrapped up in the an unpopular blanket that covered Johnson and Nixon. |
21st May 2017, 11:17 PM | #55 |
Master Poster
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22nd May 2017, 12:42 AM | #56 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
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The Democratic party is in shambles, Republicans control most state legislatures and governors plus have a majority in both houses of the Congress. The Democrats would have to be stupid to kill the golden goose now. They'll rattle the cage until election and hope they begin to regain their strength. Then they'll rattle it some more until the presidential election and present an electable candidate that will most likely both defeat Trump and win many other seats over for the Democrats.
Short of a Republican-sponsored impeachment or else truly gross serious crimes and misdemeanors, Trump will remain until the election. It's a bit early to judge his chances in a reelection, but his popularity is degrading: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/ If he doesn't stage an impressive turnaround, his only hope is that the electorate gets used of his antics and tired of incessant criticism and begins to ignore both as a result. It is a depressing but real scenario. McHrozni |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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22nd May 2017, 01:02 AM | #57 |
Maledictorian
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It's not the Democrat's job to impeach Trump - that's up to the majority party.
It's entirely up to the Republicans if they want to go down with Trump or not. |
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22nd May 2017, 02:19 AM | #58 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Dec 2012
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It's only been 130 days. All we are saying, is give Trump a chance.
Not that they could have. Well, that's not true. They could have impeached Bush with all the Democrats voting for Impeachment. Meaning like a grand jury the house could issue charges for a trial. But thats as far as it goes. Like Bill Clinton, the trial phase would be a dead end since it requires a 2/3rds majority to convict and remove the President. They never had 67 votes in the Senate. |
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Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get to me. . |
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22nd May 2017, 02:57 AM | #59 |
Penultimate Amazing
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If you can take the other side of those bets, I would say that is pretty safe money. At least he will still be the president on Jan. 1st, 2018. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I have learned to be skeptical of claims that Trump is finished "any day now".
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A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. William Shakespeare |
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22nd May 2017, 03:31 AM | #60 |
Illuminator
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Dundee
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Trump has demonstrated a great ability to weather all sorts of storms, even those that at first appear critical. I have no confidence that he will disappear from office before he decides to.
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22nd May 2017, 03:32 AM | #61 |
Papa Funkosophy
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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22nd May 2017, 03:42 AM | #62 |
Penultimate Amazing
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22nd May 2017, 03:57 AM | #63 |
Philosopher
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A while back I offered to bet $20 that, one way or another, Trump would not be president one year post-inauguration.
No one took me up on it. But now, who knows? Never have so many pundits been so wrong about so many things so many times! |
22nd May 2017, 04:55 AM | #64 |
Illuminator
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22nd May 2017, 05:13 AM | #65 |
Penultimate Amazing
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As I understand it, it cannot be treason because as the President he has full control over what is classified and what it not, and to be high treason the US would have to be at war with that country (less sure about that second bit).
What Trump has done may be ill-advised and "wrong" but AFAIK it's not illegal. |
22nd May 2017, 05:20 AM | #66 |
Penultimate Amazing
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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22nd May 2017, 07:30 AM | #67 |
Graduate Poster
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My bet is that he will not run for a 2nd term and therefore is out in 2020. I think he will come up with some BS about how he had the biggest best presidency and was able to accomplish everything like no other leader in history. He will declare the country is now great again and that it is time for him do his great and wonderful business things. In reality, he will be tired from the job requirements as well as the criticism and continued unpopularity.
Here are my odds about two other possibility for getting out earlier: 5% chance he will be resign/forced out or impeached. 25% he will have a serious health issue that will require Pence to take over I think he will lose support from the rust belt supporters when there condition has not changed. Everything I have seen these are people who only supported him hoping to bring a change and are not a part of the core supporters who will never leave Trump. |
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22nd May 2017, 07:31 AM | #68 |
Papa Funkosophy
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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22nd May 2017, 07:56 AM | #69 |
Philosopher
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22nd May 2017, 09:25 AM | #70 |
Banned
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22nd May 2017, 09:28 AM | #71 |
Troublesome Passenger
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Too long.
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Like as the waves make towards the pebbled shore, So do our minutes hasten to their end . . . WS |
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22nd May 2017, 09:31 AM | #72 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
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He's toast. He has too many enemies in the establishment.
The entire FBI and intelligence community loathes him. The Republicans are embarrassed by him. |
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who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
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22nd May 2017, 09:37 AM | #73 |
Papa Funkosophy
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I'd vote for "how", but there is no telling on the "when".
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"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe. |
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22nd May 2017, 09:48 AM | #74 |
Banned
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I'm willing to bet the majority of males in congress were guilty of the same things that Clinton did, so it was difficult for them to swallow getting rid of him.
Trump on the other hand has been doing some very shady and extremely illegal (borderline traitorous) things. |
22nd May 2017, 10:24 AM | #75 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Location: Sacramento
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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