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Tags donald trump , political speculation

View Poll Results: How long before Trump is gone?
He won't last more than a year. 25 37.31%
He'll last 2 years. 9 13.43%
He'll make it to 2020 then he is toast. 16 23.88%
Donald Trump will be our President till January 21, 2025 17 25.37%
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 21st May 2017, 03:27 PM   #41
dudalb
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If he continues the way he has, he will not make it until 2020.
He is losing the uncommitted or independent voters, who gave him the victory in 2016. And I suspect a number of the "Hold your nose and vote" Republcians who voted for him are totally disillusioned with him.
The mistake people are making is thinking that everybody who voted for Trump is one of the hardcore supporters. I would say the percentatage of Trump voters who are of the "I could kill somebody in Times square and they would still support me" is a lot smaller then anybody thinks.And I am not sure starting a major war is a guarantee of relection. I give you LBJ as an example'Vietnam was so unpopular that he decided not to run because he knew he would lose.
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Old 21st May 2017, 03:44 PM   #42
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He won't get forced out mid-term, for two reasons. First, Democrats, the only party anybody seriously suggests might do it, don't really want him gone because the dysfunction he introduces among republicans is the main thing holding Republicans back right now; under President Pence they'd be more unified and have more of a chance of being productive. (Logically, the way it should work is that if a President gets kicked out then the VP goes too, but that's not how it works, and in this case it would still yield another President Pence anyway.) And second, if it starts to look like there's any chance of it happening, he'll quit so he can try to spin it as his own choice for his own reasons.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:27 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Democrats... don't really want him gone because the dysfunction he introduces among republicans is the main thing holding Republicans back right now
Exactly. The last thing we want is for Trump to suddenly start getting a clue or be replaced by someone more competent. The more turmoil he creates the harder it is for Republicans to govern effectively (not that they are much good at it even in the best of times) and the stronger the next Democrat victory will be.

So far he hasn't disappointed, but I do fear the day he finally gets something right (hopefully by then it will be too little, too late).
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:39 PM   #44
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I really can't place a vote. IMV, It's clear as can be that Trump is guilty of 2 serious crimes at a minimum. One being obstruction of justice and the second is violating the emoluments clause of the US Constitution. Both of which are reasons for Impeachment. The third reason to Impeach Trump isn't a crime but frankly is the best reason for Impeachment. The man is batcrap crazy.

But guessing what Congress will do is impossible.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:45 PM   #45
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What about: On Planet X, Hillary is President.
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Old 21st May 2017, 07:46 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
But guessing what Congress will do is impossible.
Not entirely. Think of the wisest course of action. Then rule that out, they'd never do that one, not in a million years. Then think up a sensible action, a reasonable action, and a thoughtful action. Rule those out as well. Then think of two stupid actions, and imagine them being attempted simultaneously. Now think of one redeeming feature of the stupid actions and remove it. Now make it as ineffectual as it is stupid, tack on a tax cut for billionaires, and you have a pretty good idea of what Congress will do next.
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Old 21st May 2017, 08:37 PM   #47
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Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.
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Old 21st May 2017, 08:54 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.
Why not 2026, 2027, and on?l It's not as if he and his party give a rat's ass about that pesky constitution anyhow. Other than just one amendment.
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Old 21st May 2017, 08:58 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Noztradamus View Post
On Planet X, Hillary is President
...and we would all be bitching about her. By losing the presidency Hillary got off light. Now the worse Trump does the better she looks in comparison.
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Old 21st May 2017, 09:26 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.
No its not. There are such things as diminishing returns. The biggest problem economically is the distribution of income and wealth. The argument made by the Arthur Laffers and Supply Siders of the world is a dishonest argument because there are more variables than just taxation. Tax cuts for the wealthy have a marginal and often a negative effect on the economy. Want to boost the economy, boost demand. We need to get more money in the hands of the masses not the few.
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Old 21st May 2017, 09:42 PM   #51
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It isn't even a given that Trump is actually going to get tax "reform" done.
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Old 21st May 2017, 10:47 PM   #52
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Trump or his surrogates are the only candidates the GOP will be fielding in the foreseeable future; makes no difference which feudal lord they choose as candidate for kingship. It's the bowing in awe and the chance to kiss blesséd coattails that count, so one can turn from the altar steps and razz the unwashed. Hubris, bright and shiny things, bullying as main modus operandi; this is the GOP and these are its voters. Gimme. Now. Move over. Cash! Oh precious cash!

An exaggeration? Hardly. Sixteen years is all it took to worship at the altar of Wahhabi Islam in exchange for green backs. That there is a yellow-back move. Typical. Delivered with all the non-analytical crap and weak sloganeering that works back home, before a sniggering crowd of financiers of terror that could only rejoice at the abject capitulation.
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Old 21st May 2017, 11:05 PM   #53
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In 2006, Democrats won the House and the Senate, and they didn't impeach Bush (still the worst president of my lifetime).
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Old 21st May 2017, 11:06 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If he continues the way he has, he will not make it until 2020.
He is losing the uncommitted or independent voters, who gave him the victory in 2016. And I suspect a number of the "Hold your nose and vote" Republcians who voted for him are totally disillusioned with him.
The mistake people are making is thinking that everybody who voted for Trump is one of the hardcore supporters. I would say the percentatage of Trump voters who are of the "I could kill somebody in Times square and they would still support me" is a lot smaller then anybody thinks.And I am not sure starting a major war is a guarantee of relection. I give you LBJ as an example'Vietnam was so unpopular that he decided not to run because he knew he would lose.

I remembered the massive demonstrations in the streets and anti-war songs back home when I was in Vietnam and I was stationed with Johnson's son-in-law, Patrick Nugent, at Phan Rang airbase. In addition, the US military was very angry with Johnson's "rules-of-engagement" policy.

Now, I see Trump all wrapped up in the an unpopular blanket that covered Johnson and Nixon.
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Old 21st May 2017, 11:17 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Many think Trump's Administration is toast.

Personally I think he may not be President a year from now.

Others think he will last through 2020 but will lose to the Democrat.

What say you?
Even if Trump is impeached next week, it would not be soon enough. However, we are not there yet, but I won't be surprised that as investigations continue, there will be even more negative information revealed that we are unaware of today.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 12:42 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Hercules56 View Post
Many think Trump's Administration is toast.

Personally I think he may not be President a year from now.

Others think he will last through 2020 but will lose to the Democrat.

What say you?
The Democratic party is in shambles, Republicans control most state legislatures and governors plus have a majority in both houses of the Congress. The Democrats would have to be stupid to kill the golden goose now. They'll rattle the cage until election and hope they begin to regain their strength. Then they'll rattle it some more until the presidential election and present an electable candidate that will most likely both defeat Trump and win many other seats over for the Democrats.

Short of a Republican-sponsored impeachment or else truly gross serious crimes and misdemeanors, Trump will remain until the election.

It's a bit early to judge his chances in a reelection, but his popularity is degrading:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

If he doesn't stage an impressive turnaround, his only hope is that the electorate gets used of his antics and tired of incessant criticism and begins to ignore both as a result. It is a depressing but real scenario.

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Old 22nd May 2017, 01:02 AM   #57
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It's not the Democrat's job to impeach Trump - that's up to the majority party.
It's entirely up to the Republicans if they want to go down with Trump or not.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 02:19 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
In 2006, Democrats won the House and the Senate, and they didn't impeach Bush (still the worst president of my lifetime).
It's only been 130 days. All we are saying, is give Trump a chance.

Not that they could have. Well, that's not true. They could have impeached Bush with all the Democrats voting for Impeachment. Meaning like a grand jury the house could issue charges for a trial. But thats as far as it goes. Like Bill Clinton, the trial phase would be a dead end since it requires a 2/3rds majority to convict and remove the President. They never had 67 votes in the Senate.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 02:57 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
According to the following prediction market, you can buy shares for Trump not being president by the end of 2017 at 26 pennies a pop:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5...-end-2017#data

Trump being impeached in 2017 sells for 20 cents:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5...eached-in-2017

This strikes me as weird. What these buyers seem to be saying is that Trump is more likely to resign. Or they think impeachment means removal from office.

I would guess that he serves out the term. I certainly do not expect movement with Congress held by Republicans, so after the mid-terms it might be another story. I do not expect him to win re-election (but then again, I didn't expect him to make it to Iowa).
If you can take the other side of those bets, I would say that is pretty safe money. At least he will still be the president on Jan. 1st, 2018. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I have learned to be skeptical of claims that Trump is finished "any day now".
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Old 22nd May 2017, 03:31 AM   #60
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Trump has demonstrated a great ability to weather all sorts of storms, even those that at first appear critical. I have no confidence that he will disappear from office before he decides to.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 03:32 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency.
As an aside, Trump lost any claim to being pro-business when he did not step in on the FCC vote to walk back network neutrality.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 03:42 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
As an aside, Trump lost any claim to being pro-business when he did not step in on the FCC vote to walk back network neutrality.
It depends on which crowd he's playing to. While owners of large businesses may understand this, small business owners and members of the public may continue to think he is pro-business, not least because of the yuge corporate tax rate cuts he is promising.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 03:57 AM   #63
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A while back I offered to bet $20 that, one way or another, Trump would not be president one year post-inauguration.

No one took me up on it.

But now, who knows? Never have so many pundits been so wrong about so many things so many times!
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Old 22nd May 2017, 04:55 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I really can't place a vote. IMV, It's clear as can be that Trump is guilty of 2 serious crimes at a minimum. One being obstruction of justice and the second is violating the emoluments clause of the US Constitution. Both of which are reasons for Impeachment. The third reason to Impeach Trump isn't a crime but frankly is the best reason for Impeachment. The man is batcrap crazy.

But guessing what Congress will do is impossible.
You forgot high treason by telling the Russians code-word level intelligence (and very likely other intelligence as well).

I don't think THAT has ever happened before. We're in uncharted waters.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 05:13 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by elgarak View Post
You forgot high treason by telling the Russians code-word level intelligence (and very likely other intelligence as well).
As I understand it, it cannot be treason because as the President he has full control over what is classified and what it not, and to be high treason the US would have to be at war with that country (less sure about that second bit).

Originally Posted by elgarak View Post
I don't think THAT has ever happened before. We're in uncharted waters.
What Trump has done may be ill-advised and "wrong" but AFAIK it's not illegal.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 05:20 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I really can't place a vote. IMV, It's clear as can be that Trump is guilty of 2 serious crimes at a minimum. One being obstruction of justice and the second is violating the emoluments clause of the US Constitution. Both of which are reasons for Impeachment. The third reason to Impeach Trump isn't a crime but frankly is the best reason for Impeachment. The man is batcrap crazy.

But guessing what Congress will do is impossible.
Hm. How did he violate the emoluments clause?

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Old 22nd May 2017, 07:30 AM   #67
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My bet is that he will not run for a 2nd term and therefore is out in 2020. I think he will come up with some BS about how he had the biggest best presidency and was able to accomplish everything like no other leader in history. He will declare the country is now great again and that it is time for him do his great and wonderful business things. In reality, he will be tired from the job requirements as well as the criticism and continued unpopularity.

Here are my odds about two other possibility for getting out earlier:

5% chance he will be resign/forced out or impeached.
25% he will have a serious health issue that will require Pence to take over

I think he will lose support from the rust belt supporters when there condition has not changed. Everything I have seen these are people who only supported him hoping to bring a change and are not a part of the core supporters who will never leave Trump.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 07:31 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It depends on which crowd he's playing to. While owners of large businesses may understand this, small business owners and members of the public may continue to think he is pro-business, not least because of the yuge corporate tax rate cuts he is promising.
Not owners of large businesses. Owners of a handful of ISPs.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 07:56 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by seayakin View Post
I think he will lose support from the rust belt supporters when there condition has not changed. Everything I have seen these are people who only supported him hoping to bring a change and are not a part of the core supporters who will never leave Trump.
Nope. They'll retain them by spinning it with "at least he tried," nevermind that he didn't.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 09:25 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
As I understand it, it cannot be treason because as the President he has full control over what is classified and what it not, and to be high treason the US would have to be at war with that country (less sure about that second bit).



What Trump has done may be ill-advised and "wrong" but AFAIK it's not illegal.
Trump's entire administrations mission statement:

"AFAIK it's not illegal"
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Old 22nd May 2017, 09:28 AM   #71
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Too long.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 09:31 AM   #72
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He's toast. He has too many enemies in the establishment.

The entire FBI and intelligence community loathes him. The Republicans are embarrassed by him.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 09:37 AM   #73
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I'd vote for "how", but there is no telling on the "when".
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Old 22nd May 2017, 09:48 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
It's only been 130 days. All we are saying, is give Trump a chance.

Not that they could have. Well, that's not true. They could have impeached Bush with all the Democrats voting for Impeachment. Meaning like a grand jury the house could issue charges for a trial. But thats as far as it goes. Like Bill Clinton, the trial phase would be a dead end since it requires a 2/3rds majority to convict and remove the President. They never had 67 votes in the Senate.
I'm willing to bet the majority of males in congress were guilty of the same things that Clinton did, so it was difficult for them to swallow getting rid of him.


Trump on the other hand has been doing some very shady and extremely illegal (borderline traitorous) things.
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Old 22nd May 2017, 10:24 AM   #75
dudalb
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.
Ah, the good old Trickle Down theory. that has worked so well in the past for the average Americans.
You also ignore non economic issues, which could Bring Trump down.
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