ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Reply
Old 30th September 2019, 11:33 PM   #1
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,246
UK - Longer Gaol Terms

David Cameron was something of an aberration for a Conservative Prime Minister, a socially liberal individual. In the same way that many in the Labour Party viewed Tony Blair as a "necessary evil" in order to get elected, David Cameron was the Conservative Party equivalent.

Even when he was PM, the Austerity programme was pushing the usual Conservative agenda. Since his resignation, the Conservatives have been reverting to type and now we have the predictable "keeping people locked up for longer".

Quote:
Changes aimed at forcing the most serious offenders to serve two-thirds of their sentence will be unveiled by Justice Secretary Robert Buckland.

Prisoners convicted of serious violent and sexual offences will no longer be released at the half-way point of their sentence, the minister will announce.

The plan for England and Wales forms part of a review ordered by the PM.

The Conservative conference will focus on law and order on Tuesday, with a speech from Home Secretary Priti Patel.

Ms Patel will say that the Conservative Party will reclaim its place as the party of law and order.

She will say: "To the police service: we back you. And to the criminals, I simply say this: we are coming after you."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49887494

It's the usual nonsense and, as usual there's no evidence to support the idea that simply keeping people locked up for longer reduces crime in general and recidivism in particular.

Lower crime rates tend to be associated with lower levels of inequality - something that the Conservatives seem instead to be increasing
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 01:12 AM   #2
Dave Rogers
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
 
Dave Rogers's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 31,296
I love the idea that she thinks it's a good idea to claim that "the Conservative party will reclaim its place as the party of law and order" right at the moment.

Dave
__________________
Inspiring discussion of Sharknado is not a good sign for the audience expectations of your new high-concept SF movie sequel.

- Myriad
Dave Rogers is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 01:33 AM   #3
smartcooky
Penultimate Amazing
 
smartcooky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Nelson, New Zealand
Posts: 15,452
Quote:
Changes aimed at forcing the most serious offenders to serve two-thirds of their sentence
We are talking about the most serious offenders here, right. The "top" few percent, the recidivists who have a very high likelihood of reoffending when they are let out.

In the UK, 60% of short-sentenced prisoners will reoffend within the same period.

In England and Wales, 46% of adult prisoners were proven to have re-offended within a year of release.

In 2018 in the UK, almost 3,000 serious offences were committed by reoffending criminals.

In 2018 in the UK, over 400,000 new crimes were committed by criminals released from jail or a non-custodial punishment, with offenders carrying out the highest rate of crimes for a decade.

In the UK, 26.2 per cent of convicted criminals who were let out of prison, handed a community sentence or cautioned in 2013-14 went on to commit a new crime within a year. They perpetrated 3.12 offences each, on average.

Well, doesn't it stand to reason that the crime rates committed by those offenders will decrease by virtue of the fact that they are still in jail rather than being out gleaning opportunities to commit crimes?
__________________
"Woke" is a pejorative term used by racists, homophobes and misogynists to describe people who possess a fully functional moral compass.

If you don't like my posts, my opinions, or my directness then put me on your ignore list. This will be of benefit to both of us; you won't have to take umbrage at my posts, and I won't have to waste my time talking to you... simples! !

Last edited by smartcooky; 1st October 2019 at 01:35 AM.
smartcooky is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 01:38 AM   #4
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,246
Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
I love the idea that she thinks it's a good idea to claim that "the Conservative party will reclaim its place as the party of law and order" right at the moment.

Dave
Brazenly lying has worked well for President Trump and the GOP, why not for its "mini-me" of Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party ?

Allegations of sexual impropriety and domestic abuse can be safely be discounted as partisan attacks, cutting taxes and raising spending is fiscal propriety, all the usual nonsense...
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 02:08 AM   #5
Lothian
should be banned
 
Lothian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside
Posts: 15,706
I watched a programme last night inside Winchester Jail. The jail suffered from a lack of investment, no rehabilitation, fewer staff, younger staff, less experienced staff and staff leaving rather than making a career, because the working conditions are so poor.
They first need to sort out the staffing crisis, support the staff they have and retain good people. Untill that is done building more prisons, locking people up for longer, will not help the aim to rehabilitate. I would hope that we can do better than simply locking people up in a hostile environment.
Lothian is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 02:11 AM   #6
Darat
Lackey
Administrator
 
Darat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 94,174
Great idea, our prisons are literally (and I mean literally literally) on the edge of riots and other serious incidents all the time right now because of chronic underfunding, under staffing and overcrowding.

The prison service is hemorrhaging experienced staff because they are getting out on good retirement packages because the push has been to get rid of the "expensive" prison wardens as a cost cutting exercise (the retirement packages don't hit the "bottom line" of the prisons). OSGs now do pretty much the same job as prison wardens but start on just under 18,000 a year and get none of the good pension benefits and so on. (Actually they aren't losing as many experienced staff these days... because they've already gone!)

The graduate programme is a laugh, most don't continue in the prison service once they get into an actual prison.

The "private" prisons have been shown to be worse against all metrics compared to the state prisons and some have handed the prisons over to the government.

Prison work and rehabilitation work has pretty much stopped ‐ again staffing and underfunding.

The probation servive was pretty much handed over to private companies and guess what, that's also failed.

So now we will again increase the prison population, reducing even more the opportunity to rehabilitate prisoners. Plus of course it will mean yet more crowding, yet more prisoners locked up pretty much all day and all the problems that causes.

Oh yes this is such a good idea given the state of our prison service and probation service.

All of the above is the direct fault of the tory government's austerity, but of course they won't admit that or spend the money where it is needed. No they'd rather spend time and money marketing "tough on crime" then actual implement the required policies and budgets.
__________________
I wish I knew how to quit you
Darat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 03:50 AM   #7
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 19,289
Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
I watched a programme last night inside Winchester Jail. The jail suffered from a lack of investment, no rehabilitation, fewer staff, younger staff, less experienced staff and staff leaving rather than making a career, because the working conditions are so poor.
They first need to sort out the staffing crisis, support the staff they have and retain good people. Untill that is done building more prisons, locking people up for longer, will not help the aim to rehabilitate. I would hope that we can do better than simply locking people up in a hostile environment.
What were you in for?

<g d r>
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder,

vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 04:01 AM   #8
Lothian
should be banned
 
Lothian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside
Posts: 15,706
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
What were you in for?

<g d r>
Lack of proper punctuation.
Lothian is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 04:12 AM   #9
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 28,054
Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Lack of proper punctuation.
A victim of the grammar police?
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 07:14 AM   #10
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 23,091
Quote:
...deep down inside, you secretly long for a cold-hearted Republican Conservative to lower taxes, brutalise criminals and rule you like a king!
Familiar?
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 07:36 AM   #11
ohms
Graduate Poster
 
ohms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,277
As the Secret Barrister has pointed out, the most dangerous criminals already serve two thirds of their sentence.

From https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidanc...rous-offenders

Quote:
Under the pre 3 December 2012 arrangements release from an extended sentence under the CJA 2003 is, as stated above, at the half way point of the custodial term. For the new EDS release will normally be at the two thirds points of the custodial term, unless the custodial term of the extended sentence is 10 years or more, or the sentence is imposed for an offence listed in schedule 15B, when the case must be referred at the two thirds point to the Parole Board, who will consider whether it is no longer necessary for the protection of the public for the defendant to be detained.
__________________
Long time lurker
ohms is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 07:41 AM   #12
ahhell
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 3,217
There is some evidence that longer sentences do reduce crime:
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012...nces-cut-crime

Quote:
he researchers concluded that prison was particularly effective in reducing property crime when targeted at serious and repeat offenders. They concluded that an increase of just one month in the average sentence length for burglaries – from 15.4 to 16.4 months – would reduce burglaries in the following year by 4,800, out of an annual total of 962,700.
ahhell is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 07:46 AM   #13
Tolls
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 5,158
That's a reduction of about 0.25% (if I've got my maths right).
Surely that's statistical noise?
Tolls is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 07:57 AM   #14
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 47,237
Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
In the UK, 26.2 per cent of convicted criminals who were let out of prison, handed a community sentence or cautioned in 2013-14 went on to commit a new crime within a year. They perpetrated 3.12 offences each, on average.
I think we should probably wait until they're perpetrating an average number of offenses equal to or greater than the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter.
theprestige is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 08:02 AM   #15
Lothian
should be banned
 
Lothian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside
Posts: 15,706
Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
There is some evidence that longer sentences do reduce crime:
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012...nces-cut-crime
Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
That's a reduction of about 0.25% (if I've got my maths right).
Surely that's statistical noise?
Looking at the numbers is the conclusion not, people in prison can't commit crimes on the outside?
if you assume prison is not a deterrent then keeping people locked up longer will reduce the number of crimes. A few more numbers are needed but a 6% increase in sentencing leading to a 0.25% decrease in crime, might just be showing that!
Lothian is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 09:30 AM   #16
ohms
Graduate Poster
 
ohms's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,277
I read this interesting article recently, which suggests that, while there is a deterrent effect on shorter sentences, the effect lessens as the sentence lengthens.

I can't help feeling that this £100m would be far better spent on the police and CPS services to improve detection rates and bring more successful prosecutions. The number of cases being brought by the CPS in England & Wales is at a historic low.
__________________
Long time lurker
ohms is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 10:37 AM   #17
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 30,246
Crime levels are quite low so the Conservatives have to stoke the fear of crime instead.

This is an effective way to do that.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 11:19 AM   #18
Information Analyst
Penultimate Amazing
 
Information Analyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Besźel or Ul Qoma - not sure...
Posts: 10,099
So, basically, prisoners will have to serve 16.6% more of their sentence before being eligible for good behaviour release. I'm not sure that going to make as much difference as the numeracy-challenged Tories think.
Information Analyst is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 11:55 AM   #19
Thermal
Penultimate Amazing
 
Thermal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: East Coast USA
Posts: 12,123
I love the 'Gaol' thing. I feel so Victorian Britishish.
__________________
Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect -Mark Twain
Thermal is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 12:57 PM   #20
Ron Obvious
Thinker
 
Ron Obvious's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 224
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
I love the 'Gaol' thing. I feel so Victorian Britishish.
I remember a Peter Wimsey short story where the plot hinged on a misspelling of that word. "You should be in goal", was thought to refer to the goalkeeper of the village football team, but it had been intended as "you should be in gaol" as a threat.

I always thought that would've been a tough story to do justice to in translation, or hell, even to provide the American edition.
Ron Obvious is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 1st October 2019, 01:37 PM   #21
p0lka
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: near trees, houses and a lake.
Posts: 2,122
Originally Posted by ohms View Post
As the Secret Barrister has pointed out, the most dangerous criminals already serve two thirds of their sentence.

From https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidanc...rous-offenders
This.
The conservative party is spinning for headlines for the next election.

It's almost like they're hoping to take advantage of the 'useful idiots', from their point of view.

*disclaimer*
No one is a useful idiot, the Tory party just treat people as if they are.

Last edited by p0lka; 1st October 2019 at 01:44 PM.
p0lka is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 2nd October 2019, 12:48 AM   #22
Tolls
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 5,158
Originally Posted by Thermal View Post
I love the 'Gaol' thing. I feel so Victorian Britishish.
I had to explain the alternate spelling to my youngest just this past week.
Reading a Terry Pratchett (his collection of really old stories of his) and 'gaol' turned up, which I pronounced the proper way, only for him to correct me..."it says Gah-Oll".
Tolls is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:11 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.