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Old 9th August 2019, 08:56 AM   #481
Dave Rogers
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It's not the tariff level that the smugglers are concerned about - only the profits they can make by smuggling.


The tariff level is an essential part of the profit margin smugglers can make, because they can substitute profit for tariff payment. It is exactly what they're concerned about.

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Old 9th August 2019, 09:01 AM   #482
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post


The tariff level is an essential part of the profit margin smugglers can make, because they can substitute profit for tariff payment. It is exactly what they're concerned about.

Dave
No. You're not reading and understanding. If goods sell for roughly the same price in the two countries, then the tariff level is irrelevant. The tariff could be set at one million percent, but if a bottle of whiskey costs the same on either side of the border, then there is no profit to be made by smugglers taking it across that border.

You can post all the horrible laughing dog gifs you wish. It won't alter the facts.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:07 AM   #483
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. You're not reading and understanding. If goods sell for roughly the same price in the two countries, then the tariff level is irrelevant. The tariff could be set at one million percent, but if a bottle of whiskey costs the same on either side of the border, then there is no profit to be made by smugglers taking it across that border.

You can post all the horrible laughing dog gifs you wish. It won't alter the facts.
#despair
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:16 AM   #484
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post

I doubt if any of you believe that lamb prices across the rest of Europe will rise 40% as a result of Brexit - so you must think that lamb prices in the UK are going to fall by the same amount
The costs of an EU shop buying British lamb will be subject to a 40% uplift as the importer pays the duty. The cost of EU lamb will not change but the excess of demand over supply would mean that shops can charge more.
The costs of a british shop buying British lamb will not change but the supply will exceed the demand so the selling price will be cheaper but I doubt 40% cheaper. In practice shops don't buy what they can not sell. Farmers will be left with sheep than no one will buy for what it cost them to produce.

Quote:
If you're claiming that our try UK food prices will fall that much, then that is yet another good reason for leaving the EU. I look forward to being able to buy my lamb and other food items up to 40% cheaper than I can right now!
Foods we regularly export will be cheaper for a while but over time they will return to current prices but the number of UK suppliers will shrink due to a smaller demand from the EU. Farms will go bust.
Foods we regularly import, if we apply tarriffs, will be more expensive. Estimated are our shopping basket as a whole will be more expensive.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:22 AM   #485
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There's always an upside. If UK food prices rise significantly, it will help reduce the scandalous amounts of food currently thrown away, and could also reduce the UK obesity epidemic.

I don't believe that food prices will rise though, except maybe during the turbulent period following Brexit. In the longer term, I expect UK prices to fall once we can import goods from other countries without having to pay the very high levels of EU import tariffs we currently do.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:23 AM   #486
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. You're not reading and understanding. If goods sell for roughly the same price in the two countries, then the tariff level is irrelevant. The tariff could be set at one million percent, but if a bottle of whiskey costs the same on either side of the border, then there is no profit to be made by smugglers taking it across that border.
Well, if you think that tariffs have no effect on the prices commodities sell at in different countries, then you're certainly giving a clear picture of the level of understanding of economics it takes to favour Brexit.

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Old 9th August 2019, 09:27 AM   #487
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I guess all countries with border checks are just throwing money away. Don't really need them.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:27 AM   #488
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
There's always an upside. If UK food prices rise significantly, it will help reduce the scandalous amounts of food currently thrown away, and could also reduce the UK obesity epidemic.

I don't believe that food prices will rise though, except maybe during the turbulent period following Brexit. In the longer term, I expect UK prices to fall once we can import goods from other countries without having to pay the very high levels of EU import tariffs we currently do.
Just for reference the current tarriff rate is...?

You want no protection for UK farmers?

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 9th August 2019 at 09:28 AM.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:32 AM   #489
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
There's always an upside. If UK food prices rise significantly, it will help reduce the scandalous amounts of food currently thrown away, and could also reduce the UK obesity epidemic.

I don't believe that food prices will rise though, except maybe during the turbulent period following Brexit. In the longer term, I expect UK prices to fall once we can import goods from other countries without having to pay the very high levels of EU import tariffs we currently do.
We will have to apply WTO tariffs until we get trade deals.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:37 AM   #490
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
You want no protection for UK farmers?
That's not really a Brexit specific question, but no, I don't want special protection for any UK industries, farming included.

If they are unable to compete in the world market (assuming similar standards apply) then they deserve to go bust.

This assumes, of course, that the farmers they're competing against, say in the EU, aren't being subsidised by the state: if they are, then we should apply an import tariff commensurate with that subsidy, so that our farmers are then, effectively, competing against EU farmers on a level playing field.

I think all subsidies to farmers and other industries are a bad thing. We should eliminate subsidies entirely in the UK and have completely free trade deals with other countries that do likewise. We should slap import tariffs on imports from countries that do subsidize, to cancel out the effects of those subsidies.

When we're buying things like oranges, that we don't grow here, then we don't have to worry whether the exporting country subsidizes them or not - we can just buy from the cheapest source that supplies oranges of the standard we want, so there would be zero import tariffs on those.

Last edited by ceptimus; 9th August 2019 at 09:44 AM.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:41 AM   #491
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
That's not really a Brexit specific question, but no, I don't want special protection for any UK industries, farming included.

If they are unable to compete in the world market (assuming similar standards apply) then they deserve to go bust.

This assumes, of course, that the farmers they're competing against, say in the EU, aren't being subsidised by the state: if they are, then we should apply an import tariff commensurate with that subsidy, so that our farmers are then, effectively, competing against EU farmers on a level playing field.

I think all subsidies to farmers and other industries are a bad thing. We should eliminate subsidies entirely in the UK, have completely free trade deals with other countries that do likewise. We should slap import tariffs on imports from countries that do subsidize, to cancel out the effects of those subsidies.

Great, a trade war with the EU.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:46 AM   #492
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. You're not reading and understanding. If goods sell for roughly the same price in the two countries, then the tariff level is irrelevant. The tariff could be set at one million percent, but if a bottle of whiskey costs the same on either side of the border, then there is no profit to be made by smugglers taking it across that border.

You can post all the horrible laughing dog gifs you wish. It won't alter the facts.
It is good you don't understand as your view on brexit is clearly affected by the idea that tariffs are irrelevant.
Here is an example to show you are wrong.
Currently:-
A Scottish distillery makes whisky adds a small profit on cost and sells it for 10
An Irish distillery makes whiskey adds a small profit and sells for 10 (Euro equivalent)
An EU wholesaler/importer buys the whisky and whiskey for 10 and sells it to off licences for 15. Off licences buy whiskey and whisky for 15 and sell it to customers for 20.

Post brexit assuming a 1,000,000% tariff.

A Scottish distillery makes whisky adds a small profit on cost and sells it for 10
An Irish distillery makes whiskey adds a small profit and sells for 10 (Euro equivalent)
The EU wholesaler/importer buys the whiskey for 10 and sells it to off licences for 15.
The EU wholesaler/importer buys the whisky for 10 and pays 10,000,000 in duty to the government. It then sells the whisky to the off licence for 10,000,015 making a 5 profit.

Off licences buy whiskey for 15 and whisky for 10,000,015 and sell it to customers for 20 and 10,000,020 respectively making 5 on each bottle.

Given shops in the EU now sell to punters for 10,000,020 goods which cost 15 from a UK wholesaler smuggling those goods to the EU gives s profit of 10,000,005 a bottle less smuggling costs.

I realise that your million % tariff is an exaggeration but it makes the point very nicely.

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Old 9th August 2019, 09:51 AM   #493
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You're just deliberately pretending to be stupid. Once again, read slowly. How much does a bottle of whiskey sell for, say in France? How much does the same bottle sell for in England? If the two prices are similar then there is no incentive for smugglers to smuggle. That is economics 101.

Now if you're claiming that the price will be significantly higher in one country than the other, I want you to explain what you claim the price differential will be, in which country the price will be highest and why. Just blathering 'tariffs' won't cut it. It's the final selling price to the customer that matters.
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Old 9th August 2019, 09:54 AM   #494
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You're just deliberately pretending to be stupid. Once again, read slowly. How much does a bottle of whiskey sell for, say in France? How much does the same bottle sell for in England? If the two prices are similar then there is no incentive for smugglers to smuggle. That is economics 101.

Now if you're claiming that the price will be significantly higher in one country than the other, I want you to explain what you claim the price differential will be, in which country the price will be highest and why. Just blathering 'tariffs' won't cut it. It's the final selling price to the customer that matters.
Which part of whisky selling for 20 in the UK and 10,000,020 in the EU in the example above do you not understand?

Edited to add
If the EU off licence bought the whisky direct it would pay 10 for the whisky and 10,000,000 in a tariff. How much do you think they will then look to sell that whisky for?

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Old 9th August 2019, 09:59 AM   #495
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Well it's not grounded in any reality. It's just stupid. What do you REALLY think the prices will be after Brexit? Do you think there will be a sufficient difference to encourage smuggling? Which country will the smugglers be taking the goods to?

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Old 9th August 2019, 10:00 AM   #496
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Well it's not grounded in any reality. It's just stupid.
It makes the point your claim that tariffs have no effect is ignorant bull **** and you have no clue about the effect of brexit on trade. There is only one stupid thing in this conversation.

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Old 9th August 2019, 10:05 AM   #497
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No. You're just unable to read and comprehend. I said IF the prices are the same in the two countries, then the Tariff levels are irrelevant to smugglers. Smugglers concern themselves with the selling price of an item, not the tariff level.

I see you are unwilling to engage on what you think the prices really will be after Brexit, and whether the price differences will be sufficient to encourage mass smuggling. That's fine. I don't think there will be mass smuggling either.

Last edited by ceptimus; 9th August 2019 at 10:06 AM.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:09 AM   #498
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So it seems there are three competing theories on tariffs currently:

Almost everyone: Tariffs are a tax on consumers in the country that applies them. They tend to supress international trade.
Donald Trump: Tariffs are a source of income for they country applying them, they impoverish the countries they are applied to.
Ceptimus: Tariffs have no effect on anything except when they do.


Who to believe?
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:11 AM   #499
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. You're just unable to read and comprehend. I said IF the prices are the same in the two countries, then the Tariff levels are irrelevant to smugglers.

If there is an tariff on imports from country A to country B, then the price will pretty much inevitably not be the same in both countries.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:12 AM   #500
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Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post
So it seems there are three competing theories on tariffs currently:

Almost everyone: Tariffs are a tax on consumers in the country that applies them. They tend to supress international trade.
Donald Trump: Tariffs are a source of income for they country applying them, they impoverish the countries they are applied to.
Ceptimus: Tariffs have no effect on anything except when they do.


Who to believe?
Well, the way you phrase it, the version you claim I espouse is self-evidently true, and applies not only to tariffs but any other conceivable thing.

Turpentine has no effect on anything except when it does. Yup.
Ants have no effect on anything except when they do. Yup.
The planet Jupiter has no effect on anything except when it does. Yup.
Enthusiasm has no effect on anything except when it does. Yup.

Seems watertight.

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Old 9th August 2019, 10:13 AM   #501
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
For ordinary people crossing the border with small amounts of shopping in their cars, it's not worth the effort to detect and stop them. This applies at most land borders around the world - there's nothing particularly unusual about Ireland.
Except the fact that - at the moment - "ordinary people" are doing something that is entirely legal, and thus can't be stopped. They're doing exactly the same as people in the south-east of England going to Calais on a booze cruise.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:23 AM   #502
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. You're just unable to read and comprehend. I said IF the prices are the same in the two countries, then the Tariff levels are irrelevant to smugglers. Smugglers concern themselves with the selling price of an item, not the tariff level.

I see you are unwilling to engage on what you think the prices really will be after Brexit, and whether the price differences will be sufficient to encourage mass smuggling. That's fine. I don't think there will be mass smuggling either.
You understand that a price differential incentives smuggling.

What you appear to fail to understand is how tariffs create a price differential. You claimed tariffs don't have any affect on smuggling.

Tariffs raise costs which raise prices. If you can't understand how an increase in costs leads to an increase in selling prices thus creating a differential on either side of the border there is no point continuing.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:25 AM   #503
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Say the EU wants to slap a 40% tariff on lamb being imported to the EU: unless lamb is actually selling at a much higher price in the EU than the UK (which it won't be) then that is no incentive for smugglers.
Funny you should mention lamb. We import 100,000 tonnes of it per year, mostly from New Zealand - via EU tariff-free quotas - in the form of cheaper frozen cuts, and this amounts to a third of what we consume. We export 90,000 to 100,000 tonnes per year, mostly (80%) to France, and mostly in the form of non-frozen whole carcases or live animals.

I don't see a market for lamb smuggling there.

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Old 9th August 2019, 10:27 AM   #504
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If tariffs raise prices in both countries, then they have no effect on the incentive for smugglers. Again this is kindergarten stuff.

You still won't say which country will have the highest prices after Brexit, and by how much. That is what matters to smugglers. Once again: tariffs are irrelevant to smugglers: it is the selling prices that matter.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:27 AM   #505
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
I will happily buy cheap EU food that's been smuggled into the UK. I will be confident that food meets EU standards.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:28 AM   #506
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The posters here think that the UK lamb industry will be kept alive by all the smugglers wishing to sneak it across the Irish border to EU citizens who wish to buy it without paying an extra 40% EU tax.
Except that the market for British lamb is France, not Ireland.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:29 AM   #507
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
So he's going to take back control of our borders by not taking back control of our only actual border?

Dave
I'm sure there was at least a half-minute between each of his lies, more than enough for most Brexiteers to forget.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:30 AM   #508
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If tariffs raise prices in both countries, then they have no effect on the incentive for smugglers. Again this is kindergarten stuff.

You still won't say which country will have the highest prices after Brexit, and by how much. That is what matters to smugglers. Once again: tariffs are irrelevant to smugglers: it is the selling prices that matter.
Why would the prices increase in the country that produces the goods? There are no tariffs on domestic sales.

Unfortunately my dealing with thick twats daily quota has now been used up.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:31 AM   #509
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
In the longer term, I expect UK prices to fall once we can import goods from other countries without having to pay the very high levels of EU import tariffs we currently do.
Which doesn't apply to lamb, as for example the EU tariff-free quota for New Zealand (you know, where a third of the lamb we consume comes from) has not been exceeded since 2011. The same applies to Australia's smaller quota.

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Old 9th August 2019, 10:33 AM   #510
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
WTO rules.
Something Brexiteers seem to be experts on, until you actually ask them about said rules.


Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Tariff imposition wouldn't affect smugglers though.

Oh good grief, the stupid, it burns.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:34 AM   #511
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If tariffs raise prices in both countries, then they have no effect on the incentive for smugglers. Again this is kindergarten stuff.

You still won't say which country will have the highest prices after Brexit, and by how much. That is what matters to smugglers. Once again: tariffs are irrelevant to smugglers: it is the selling prices that matter.
If there's an incentive to export/import a product despite a 40% tariff, then there's also an incentive to smuggle that product in order to avoid the tariff. I think that's pretty obvious. You're implying that there will be no trade between the EU and UK involving tariffs.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:42 AM   #512
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. You're just unable to read and comprehend. I said IF the prices are the same in the two countries, then the Tariff levels are irrelevant to smugglers.
The prices are not the same.

You're assuming all that matters is that the retail price of booze in the EU is still 20. The price of Irish whiskey is still 20, but the price of Scotch whisky is absurdly high. Some people will pay a lot of money to get Scotch whisky because that's the product they want. A smuggler can make a good profit when he's really only competing with other smugglers. Plus of course many people will not buy black market booze and others will not pay inflated prices, which will increase demand for Irish whisky instead and push up its price.

PS Just to nitpick, if anyone in the EU was actually selling scotch at the tariffed price it wouldn't be 10,000,020. They have to consider their return on capital employed. Nobody is going to hold ten million quid's worth of stock to make a fiver profit. Their cash would be better employed doing virtually anything else.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:47 AM   #513
catsmate
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Following a no deal Brexit you will indeed be able to buy cheap lamb - right up until it's all gone and the farmers have all gone bust. Then you'll find yourself paying a hell of a lot more.
Worry no, I'm sure Trump and his cronies will spring to the rescue with supplies of:
  • GMO corn and soy (practically harmless compared to the rest)
  • Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey
  • BVO lacked soft drinks (but at least it'll keep the Brits from igniting)
  • Arsenic enhanced chicken[1]
  • Brominated (via potassium bromate) breads. They'll be whiter[2]...
  • Cereals, butter substitutes, meat and nuts preserved with BHA and BHT
  • Milk from cows dosed with recombinant bovine growth hormone
[1] Yes this is actually a thing in the USA; arsenic based drugs are enthusiastically administered to animals in the US because they make chickens grow quicker and makes the meat appear pinker
[2] Sure to appeal to many Brexiteers
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:52 AM   #514
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The posters here think that the UK lamb industry will be kept alive by all the smugglers wishing to sneak it across the Irish border to EU citizens who wish to buy it without paying an extra 40% EU tax.
No they don't. You're deliberately distorting reality again. Pathetic really.
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
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Old 9th August 2019, 10:52 AM   #515
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Worry no, I'm sure Trump and his cronies will spring to the rescue with supplies of:
  • GMO corn and soy (practically harmless compared to the rest)
  • Ractopamine "enhanced" beef, porn and turkey
  • BVO lacked soft drinks (but at least it'll keep the Brits from igniting)
  • Arsenic enhanced chicken[1]
  • Brominated (via potassium bromate) breads. They'll be whiter[2]...
  • Cereals, butter substitutes, meat and nuts preserved with BHA and BHT
  • Milk from cows dosed with recombinant bovine growth hormone
[1] Yes this is actually a thing in the USA; arsenic based drugs are enthusiastically administered to animals in the US because they make chickens grow quicker and makes the meat appear pinker
[2] Sure to appeal to many Brexiteers
Please tells us more about the highlighted it may make Brexit worthwhile.
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Old 9th August 2019, 12:02 PM   #516
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If Ireland doesn't want to accept it, they can choose to erect border posts if they wish. They'll pay for them, of course.
so there will be border infrastructure after all? your only worry is who pays for it?
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Old 9th August 2019, 12:05 PM   #517
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Ireland is not in Schengen, so they would find it difficult to get into Ireland.
so the UK abrogates its border enforcement to Ireland? Was that part ofcthe Vote Leavr prospectus?
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Old 9th August 2019, 12:07 PM   #518
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If, on the other hand, you're claiming that food prices will be 40% higher in the UK than the EU, then I say good luck to the smugglers. I will happily buy cheap EU food that's been smuggled into the UK. I will be confident that food meets EU standards.
or it will be rancid horse meat. smugglers arent renowned for meeting standards.
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Old 9th August 2019, 12:28 PM   #519
Archie Gemmill Goal
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No. You're just unable to read and comprehend. I said IF the prices are the same in the two countries, then the Tariff levels are irrelevant to smugglers. Smugglers concern themselves with the selling price of an item, not the tariff level.

I see you are unwilling to engage on what you think the prices really will be after Brexit, and whether the price differences will be sufficient to encourage mass smuggling. That's fine. I don't think there will be mass smuggling either.
Do you comprehend that tariffs have to be included in the selling price????

so Scotch whisky that costs 30 euros now in france will cost 50 or 60 euros on Nov 1.

And Irish whiskey that costs 30 pounds now in the UK will cost 50 or 60 pounds on Nov 1.

But the price to buy in the Uk or Ireland domestically doesnt change. So you can buy Irish whiskey in Ireland for 20 euros and sell it in the UK for 45 or 50 pounds. and vice versa.

Of course you might not care about crime. because takimg back of the borders was only ever a slogan that meant kicking out Polish nurses apparently. But you might reflect on the fact that actual criminals tend to be naughty people.

So you might not mind organised criminals getting rich off Brexit but when they start watering down the whiskey with paint thinner and funding another mainland bombing campaign with the proceeds you might start to give a ****.
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Old 9th August 2019, 12:32 PM   #520
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If tariffs raise prices in both countries, then they have no effect on the incentive for smugglers. Again this is kindergarten stuff.

You still won't say which country will have the highest prices after Brexit, and by how much. That is what matters to smugglers. Once again: tariffs are irrelevant to smugglers: it is the selling prices that matter.
I think i might see what you are missing..... Smugglers dont pay the tariff. Ever. So their cost of goods start with an advantage equal to the tariff.
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