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Old 3rd July 2018, 06:48 PM   #2921
Roger Ramjets
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
who is increasing their bitcoin holdings now and why? Why hasn't it crashed deeper?
Simple answer:- speculators. The smart ones know that the price is determined solely by sentiment, which comes in waves.

For one reason or another the sentiment may turn sour and people sell, causing the price to drop even more as panic sets in. A clever 'investor' watches this wave develop and buys when it is close to the trough. As the 'bear' wave ends sentiment turns positive and the price increases, causing others to join in for fear of missing out. Of course this doesn't last either, so the cycle repeats.

An experienced 'investor' knows that the price is driven by people's emotions, so he isn't just watching the price. He's also looking at volume, reading news reports, and checking social media to see where the sentiment is going. A big investor can also manipulate sentiment with well timed announcements and large transactions.

Day to day prices jump up and down 'randomly', so buying and selling on the spot price is just gambling. But over a longer period the waves become predictable. Bitcoin currently has one wave with a period of about 1 week, and another of about 2 months. A smart 'investor' can make consistent money by synchronizing his transactions to these waves. The only problem is that the tide is going out, so the waves are getting smaller. Eventually they may become so weak that 'investing' in bitcoin is not profitable enough.

One reason Bitcoin hasn't crashed completely is that professional speculators are still getting enough out of the game to stay in it. When will it end? Perhaps never. It all depends on how long they can keep the waves of sentiment going. But so far Bitcoin has followed the typical behavior of a bubble, and with no fundamentals to give it real value there is no reason to believe it won't continue down that path.
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Old 4th July 2018, 02:12 AM   #2922
Craig B
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
But you're welcome to use his TA or your own and become rich and famous
I don't think people become rich and famous either by using his TA ... or by investing in cryptos after the peak price of the bubble had passed.
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Old 4th July 2018, 02:48 AM   #2923
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
I don't think people become rich and famous either by using his TA ... or by investing in cryptos after the peak price of the bubble had passed.
Why? Is it different this time?
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Old 4th July 2018, 04:46 AM   #2924
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Why? Is it different this time?
There are two "times" in any speculative bubble:

Time before the peak
Time after the peak

I think the peak has passed. The loss of two thirds of the December value over a period of general decline of half a year is an indicator of this, and I wouldn't risk my shirt to bet that the decline will be reversed and the bubble will reinflate.
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Old 4th July 2018, 07:07 AM   #2925
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
In December if I said, you're going to lose all your money if you buy more Bitcoin. But you only lost two thirds of your money over six months? Am I psychic? Or is the optimist who says it'll carry on going up and you stand to make millions. Is the optimist psychic?

Neither. But people who said "don't buy any more" were predicting along the right general lines, weren't they?
We didn't have a statement that said don't buy anymore. We had a statement of a specific price.
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Old 4th July 2018, 09:14 AM   #2926
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
There are two "times" in any speculative bubble:

Time before the peak
Time after the peak

I think the peak has passed. The loss of two thirds of the December value over a period of general decline of half a year is an indicator of this, and I wouldn't risk my shirt to bet that the decline will be reversed and the bubble will reinflate.
You didn't answer the question.
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Old 4th July 2018, 10:47 AM   #2927
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
I don't think people become rich and famous either by using his TA ... or by investing in cryptos after the peak price of the bubble had passed.
Agreed
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Old 4th July 2018, 11:28 AM   #2928
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
People are using it as a currency today.
Except pricing is still in dollars, or another local currency, and the bitcoin exchanged for the product is whatever the equivalent is.
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Old 4th July 2018, 12:51 PM   #2929
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
We didn't have a statement that said don't buy anymore. We had a statement of a specific price.
if you concluded from the specific prediction that you shouldn't buy more Bitcoin that would have been right, even if the specific prediction was exaggerated.
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Old 4th July 2018, 12:53 PM   #2930
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You didn't answer the question.
The question was, is it different this time? Which "time" do you think we're in?
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Old 4th July 2018, 01:16 PM   #2931
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
The question was, is it different this time? Which "time" do you think we're in?
Do you think you are fooling anybody? You are always saying that "this time it is different" (the price will never reach its previous high).

So far, the scenario is unfolding exactly the same way as it did after its high in December 2013 and you are repeating the same posts that were made 4 years ago.
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Old 4th July 2018, 09:11 PM   #2932
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
So far, the scenario is unfolding exactly the same way as it did after its high in December 2013
No, it isn't.

2013 Bitcoin Bubble Fueled by Suspicious Trading Activity on Mt. Gox
Quote:
Willy controlled many different accounts. According to the study, Willy appeared roughly seven hours after Markus became inactive.

The data cited by the report indicates that Willy would purchase 10–19 bitcoins at a time until an amount equal to $2.5 million worth of bitcoins had been purchased. Willy would then make a new account and repeat the process...

Willy acquired 268,132 bitcoins in exchange for $112 million. Much like Markus, Willy did not actually pay for his bitcoins.

“Hence, together, these unauthorized traders ‘acquired’ around 600,000 bitcoins by November 2013,” says the study. “Perhaps unsurprisingly, this is very close to the number of bitcoins (650,000) that Mt. Gox claimed to have lost when it folded in early 2014.”
The spike in 2013 was caused by fraudulent activity on a single exchange. Without this fraud the price probably would have continued to languish until some other event caused interest to spike.

That scenario is quite different from the bubble that peaked last year, which was fueled by the general public becoming aware of bitcoin and opportunities for speculation. It has now achieved media saturation so there is little room for expansion, and it should (if sentiment doesn't turn universally sour) settle down to a more realistic price just like similar 'fiat-busters' such as gold and silver have done.

Craig B may have been wrong about last time (and who could blame him for not knowing the real cause of that spike), but this time it really is different. The difference isn't in the price fluctuations (which so far are following a similar pattern) but in the environment. In 2013 bitcoin was still a largely unknown curiosity. In 2017 interest peaked when it hit the mainstream and attempted to become a conventional commodity, an event which is unlikely to occur again. Different scenario, different result.

If you just looked at the price variations you might think they are (even 'exactly') the same, but that would be making the same mistake as people who rely on Technical Analysis. The price is ultimately determined by people's emotions, so any prediction based purely on price is iffy. The whole World now knows about bitcoin, interest has peaked, and sentiments are becoming more realistic. Numerically bitcoin could still go to the moon, but emotionally it has jumped the shark. Bitcoin has run out of the resource it needs to go higher - not technology, not electricity, not capital - suckers.
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Old 4th July 2018, 10:28 PM   #2933
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
The spike in 2013 was caused by fraudulent activity on a single exchange. . . . . .

That scenario is quite different from the bubble that peaked last year, . . . .
It is interesting to see that you suddenly don't consider Bitfinex and its associated "tether" currency to be fraud anymore. It has been claimed by some to be the primary driver of the December price peak.
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Old 5th July 2018, 03:08 AM   #2934
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Do you think you are fooling anybody? You are always saying that "this time it is different" (the price will never reach its previous high).

So far, the scenario is unfolding exactly the same way as it did after its high in December 2013 and you are repeating the same posts that were made 4 years ago.
You are stating that the price will again exceed its December high, and that people would be well advised to buy into Bitcoin now, because it will go up eternally like a collectible Ming Dynasty vase.

I would hesitate to give such advice. How long do you think a current investor should be prepared to wait before this recovery takes place?
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Old 5th July 2018, 03:33 AM   #2935
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Old 5th July 2018, 05:35 PM   #2936
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
if you concluded from the specific prediction that you shouldn't buy more Bitcoin that would have been right, even if the specific prediction was exaggerated.
If you conclude something that isn't the prediction, and that turns out to be right, thst doesn't say anything about he wrong prediction other than it is wrong.
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Old 5th July 2018, 11:23 PM   #2937
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Originally Posted by Mycroft View Post
Except pricing is still in dollars, or another local currency, and the bitcoin exchanged for the product is whatever the equivalent is.
It is likely to stay that way indefinitely unless a government officially accepts it as a unit of accounting and that is unlikely to happen while ownership is concentrated in a handful of private hands.
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Old 6th July 2018, 02:34 PM   #2938
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Exactly the Same as Last Time?

Bitcoin's Price Declines Over Q2 for First Time on Record
Quote:
In the case of bitcoin's Q2 price movements, it turns out history didn't repeat.

As the three-month period came to a close this week, the final figures indicate bitcoin fell 8 percent according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), snapping a 7-year win streak for the market's leading cryptocurrency...

History shows, the moving average is a make or break level for BTC. For instance, BTC's last bear market ended with an upside break (marked by a square) of the 75-week EMA at the end of 2015 and what followed was a two-year long bull market.

So, while there is a reason to be optimistic, bulls are cautioned against being too ambitious as the long-term descending trendline is still intact.
But don't worry Bitcoiners, this technical analysis doesn't mean anything. Instead listen to Wall Street shills gurus, they know what they are talking about!

Wall Street’s Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Price to Hit $22K by Year’s End, ‘Can Reach $25K’
Quote:
Financial market research firm Fundstrat’s Tom Lee defended his position that Bitcoin (BTC) could trade at anywhere from $22,000 to $25,000 by the year’s end, in two CNBC interviews Thursday, July 5.

Lee, a notorious Bitcoin bull, is famous for his prediction in January that Bitcoin would hit $25,000 by the end of 2018, later saying in March it would reach a staggering $91,000 by 2020.

Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” segment Thursday morning, Lee at first appeared to have somewhat toned down his bullish outlook by saying that “it’s not out of the question that [BTC] could be over the $20,000 by the end of the year.” Lee based his rationale for the new estimate on the historic correlation between Bitcoin’s price and mining costs, which he says by the end of the year will be around $9,000 per coin mined.
To get there in the next 6 months it will have to go up like a rocket, exactly the same as last time! Don't miss out, buy Bitcoin now!!!
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Old 6th July 2018, 05:26 PM   #2939
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Bitcoin's Price Declines Over Q2 for First Time on Record
Quote:
As the three-month period came to a close this week, the final figures indicate bitcoin fell 8 percent according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), snapping a 7-year win streak for the market's leading cryptocurrency...
You have really outdone yourself in your desperate search to find somebody who disagrees with me. This time you uncovered somebody who read the price chart with a cane!

The "7-year win streak" started in September 2015 and ended in December 2017. Prior to that, the price had been in free fall for about 21 months (the current losing streak is only 8 months old).
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Old 7th July 2018, 03:23 AM   #2940
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You have really outdone yourself in your desperate search to find somebody who disagrees with me. This time you uncovered somebody who read the price chart with a cane!

The "7-year win streak" started in September 2015 and ended in December 2017. Prior to that, the price had been in free fall for about 21 months (the current losing streak is only 8 months old).
The "current losing streak" followed on from a crazy speculative bubble that dominated the financial press, and made millionaires out of some lucky punters. These things only happen once in the life of an object of speculation. Let me put it another way. I really will be surprised if the price goes up again and booms pass the December level on the way up fast, making people stupendously rich as it does so. If that happens, I will be surprised. And I will admit I was wrong about the popping of the bubble.

Now you tell me in what circumstances, asssuming they come to pass, you will admit that your optimism about the price has been refuted. I will say you are right when the price booms past $19000 on the way up fast. When and why will you come to the conclusion that it will or won't? In other words, may I take it that your 21 months is a limit, and if it doesn't happen by then it's not going to, in your opinion?
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Old 7th July 2018, 04:04 AM   #2941
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
In other words, may I take it that your 21 months is a limit, and if it doesn't happen by then it's not going to, in your opinion?
No.

If the Dec 2013 - Dec 2017 cycle is repeated then the price of bitcoin should bottom out by about September 2019 and peak again by December 2021.

Of course, even though it has started out the same, there is no reason to believe that this cycle will be the same all the way through. The cycle may have a different length entirely. The peak may or may not exceed $19,000. There may not even be a cycle at all. Anybody who thinks that they can foretell what the future will bring is talking through their - er - hat.
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Old 9th July 2018, 06:53 PM   #2942
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The cycle may have a different length entirely. The peak may or may not exceed $19,000. There may not even be a cycle at all. Anybody who thinks that they can foretell what the future will bring is talking through their - er - hat.
You make it sound like no prediction at all is possible, but that's not true. The Universe doesn't operate totally randomly. Given sufficient information and knowledge of a phenomenon's behavior it is possible to predict what it will do in the future - with a certain degree of confidence. That is the basis of Science, but even non-scientists can often make quite accurate predictions when they know and understand the subject.

You are right to reject out of hand any predictions made by bare assertion, but not those which have supporting evidence and a sound methodology. Numerous experts who have studied the economics of bubbles are saying the same thing - the current bubble is it for Bitcoin. Others point out that Bitcoin's fundamentals are too weak for it to thrive in its present form. The people making these predictions are not Bitcoin evangelists or industry shills - they really know what they are talking about! For sure they could all be wrong (and Global Warming could be a myth, and we could living in the Matrix) but it's a pretty safe bet they are right.

Quote:
You have really outdone yourself in your desperate search to find somebody who disagrees with me.
Actually I didn't have to search at all, that was simply the leading article on coindesk.com when I went there to check the price.

Interestingly the proportion of 'negative' articles seems to be increasing, even on sites that openly promote bitcoin. Is this a reflection of the current sentiment, an attempt to manipulate the price, or simply because there really is more bad news out there? Whatever the motive, at least bitcoiners are now being exposed to the 'other side of the coin' which might help to dampen unrealistic expectations.
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Old 9th July 2018, 08:03 PM   #2943
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Actually I didn't have to search at all, that was simply the leading article on coindesk.com when I went there to check the price.
Give it up. That coindesk article was a massive FAIL.

When it comes to how long bitcoin will last and how many price bubbles it will go through, you know about as much as our family dog.
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Old 12th July 2018, 01:37 AM   #2944
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Happy days for the bears. Is this the end? 6177
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Old 12th July 2018, 01:59 AM   #2945
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Happy days for the bears. Is this the end? 6177
No idea

The one thing I have demonstrated repeatedly in this and other threads is that I cannot pick markets in general (though I've never claimed to be able to) and my track record on bitcoin is particularly bad

I've never properly understood how resilient its value is and the mechanisms that support it.

The only thing I can confidently say is that the value of bitcoin will rise, fall or stay the same over the coming weeks or months and that statement is useless.
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Old 12th July 2018, 02:19 AM   #2946
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One Fifth of Bitcoin Permanently Lost

One Fifth of Bitcoin is Permanently Lost, Real Supply of BTC is Very Low
Quote:
According to an article in the The Wall Street Journal 20% of all the Bitcoin in circulation is actually lost, existing in limbo, either forgotten about or inaccessible to its owner. Bitcoin is stored in a digital wallet which can only be accessed with the owner’s personal identification number. Unlike the PIN from a bank issued ATM card, a digital wallet PIN address is much longer and considered to be virtually unhackable.
Or is it?

Quote:
Going low tech Jason Miller of South Carolina has tuned his skills as a hypnotist to manipulating his client’s memories in order to reveal the repressed information knocking around in their sub-conscious.

Everybody has a photographic memory. With skilled hypnotic regression, you can access that photograph.” Miller says about his services, that have so far had a 50% success rate, he charges .5 Bitcoin up front and 5% fee of whatever is recovered.
"When I click my fingers you will wake up not remembering anything you said while under hypnosis. CLICK. I'm sorry Mr. smith, apparently you don't have a photographic memory after all." Later... "All your bitcoins mysteriously moved to someone else's wallet? How peculiar!".
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Old 12th July 2018, 05:10 AM   #2947
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You have really outdone yourself in your desperate search to find somebody who disagrees with me. This time you uncovered somebody who read the price chart with a cane!

The "7-year win streak" started in September 2015 and ended in December 2017. Prior to that, the price had been in free fall for about 21 months (the current losing streak is only 8 months old).
Also, this isn't winning or losing, it is just a price. A high price.doesnt "win".
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Old 12th July 2018, 09:56 AM   #2948
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Also, this isn't winning or losing, it is just a price. A high price.doesnt "win".
For a buyer it does but I get your point.
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Old 12th July 2018, 10:53 AM   #2949
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So, can I do anything with these bitcoins yet?
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Old 12th July 2018, 05:26 PM   #2950
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Also, this isn't winning or losing, it is just a price. A high price.doesnt "win".
Actually it does.

Win/Loss Ratio
Quote:
What is the 'Win/Loss Ratio'

The win/loss ratio is the ratio of the total number of winning trades to the number of losing trades. It does not take into account how much was won or lost, but simply if they were winners or losers.

The win/loss ratio is used to calculate the risk/reward ratio, which is the profit potential of a trade relative to its loss potential. The profit potential of a trade is determined by the difference between the entry price and the target price at which a profit will be made.
For sellers that means a high(er) price 'wins'.

But for hardcore bitcoiners it's much more than that. They aren't just investing in bitcoin financially - they are also emotionally invested in its success. By design bitcoin should continually increase in price as more people adopt it. If it does then it is 'winning' against fiat currencies. But if the price continually goes down (like it is doing now) then it is perceived as 'losing'.

Of course you could say that the price itself is just a number and therefore cannot 'win', but that would be like saying that the number 1 in a race is just a place. The terms 'winning streak' and 'losing streak' are commonly applied to stock markets when prices are going up and down, so it is entirely appropriate to use the same terms for bitcoin.
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Old 12th July 2018, 07:35 PM   #2951
Roger Ramjets
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Price is only one indicator

No doubt many bitcoiners are feeling quite depressed with the current price slide, but price is only part of the picture. Looking at the graph below (from data.biycoinity.org) it is obvious that trading volume is even more depressed. This is not a good sign for a product which is supposed to replace all fiat currency within a few short years. but what does it mean?

Is the low volume caused by HOLDLers waiting for the price to go up again, and if so how long before they lose patience? Or is it just that bitcoin was previously in a massive bubble, and trading volumes are now returning to normal? If so, are the predictions of $1M per bitcoin (a mathematical certainty if bitcoin becomes widely adopted) still on track?

Some nihilists say that nothing is certain, therefore predicting the future is impossible. That's nonsense of course (even my dog knows better) but just what do we need to make a prediction which is better than a random coin toss? Firstly we can look at the fundamentals - what does bitcoin offer that could give it lasting value? Secondly, will enough people take it up to hold that value? And lastly, can it actually achieve that status in practice? If we can answer these questions then we should have a reasonable idea of where it might go - and where it won't.

One thing we do know is that with current technology it's impossible for bitcoin to overtake (or even equal) the transaction volumes of fiat currencies. This may be why numerous banking and finance experts are saying that bitcoin is toast. The numbers just don't add up.

But that doesn't mean it can't carve a niche for itself as 'digital gold' or 'anonymous money'. If so then it may still go to the moon! If volumes start going up again it indicates people are using bitcoin more, so it probably has a future even if the price doesn't change much. OTOH if they don't...
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File Type: jpg bitcoin volume.jpg (79.7 KB, 6 views)
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Old 13th July 2018, 03:51 AM   #2952
Eddie Dane
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Quote:
Why GPU Pricing Is About to Drop Even Further

Cryptocurrency Demand Dwindled
By all accounts, the GPU pricing crisis was a result of the cryptocurrency mining boom. It started with AMD graphics cards (they were better suited for the algorithms used for various cryptocurrencies), and Nvidia pricing soon followed suit as Ethereum (which could be mined exceptionally well on 10-series GPUs) exploded. As the value of cryptocurrencies started to decline in Q1, the demand for the GPUs dwindled, and the arrival of new ASIC miners that were more efficient than consumer-grade GPUs further decreased the need for commercial miners to dip into gaming markets for capable mining hardware. However, it took a while for pricing to drop back to (or close to) original MSRPs as we see them today. With cryptocurrency miners sated, gamers now have plenty of in-stock graphics card options at different price points, and the price tags will continue to get chopped down over time.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wh...her,37444.html

Looks like I'll finally be building a decent video-editing PC with my daughter.
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Last edited by Eddie Dane; 13th July 2018 at 03:56 AM.
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Old 13th July 2018, 12:51 PM   #2953
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wh...her,37444.html

Looks like I'll finally be building a decent video-editing PC with my daughter.
This has also made me more amenable to cryptocurrencies, also.
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Old 13th July 2018, 01:20 PM   #2954
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
This has also made me more amenable to cryptocurrencies, also.
A text book example of the price mechanism.
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