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Old 13th May 2018, 12:18 PM   #801
RecoveringYuppy
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post

If there is such a pressure for resources that the Oort cloud looks attractive, then it won't relieve the pressure for resources - and again, it would be a better idea to go to a different solar system (not that I am saying that would be feasible).

In regards to getting to another star system has there been a better proposition than using the Oort clouds (ours and "theirs") as stepping stones? If these future people agree with your logic that the next solar system represents a better pile of resources than the Oort cloud why wouldn't they go through the Oort cloud to get it? You might argue that it would take fanatics to commit to the project in the first place, but what in the world kind of magic do you think is going to remove fanatics from the population of the future?
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Old 13th May 2018, 12:27 PM   #802
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
In regards to getting to another star system has there been a better proposition than using the Oort clouds (ours and "theirs") as stepping stones? If these future people agree with your logic that the next solar system represents a better pile of resources than the Oort cloud why wouldn't they go through the Oort cloud to get it? You might argue that it would take fanatics to commit to the project in the first place, but what in the world kind of magic do you think is going to remove fanatics from the population of the future?
I have no problem with going through the Oort cloud.

I have no problem with somehow mining the Oort cloud (given an appropriate technology)

I have a problem with the Oort cloud as a place to live, as opposed to a place to use (robotically) or travel through (without stopping - and presumably with some form of suspended animation).
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Old 13th May 2018, 12:29 PM   #803
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I doubt this is news to any of you, but this youtube channel is all about what we are talking about here.

Science and Futurism with Isaac Arthur.

Here is the episode about the Oort-Cloud.
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Old 13th May 2018, 12:30 PM   #804
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Originally Posted by hgus View Post
If I remember correctly, the Ort Cloud is to be colonized first when the rest of the solar system is already fully colonized? In that scenario, I can only conclude that living in space is indeed natural to them, they are as you say beyond the hard parts. The hurdles I see, must already have been solved otherwise they wouldn't get that far. And in that scenario I see colonizing the Ort Cloud in the same light as farming of marginal lands. Something that you do if you must, but that you prefer not to do.
Indeed, this is the crux of the matter, they aren't going further out, (eventually into the Oort) because it is easy and wonderful, they are going ever further out because that is the best option they have available.


Originally Posted by hgus View Post
I still find it very hard to see how you can get past the hard part without adding "fantastic tech". For example: how is this colony going to supply itself with every little item they need? Lets assume they have had a major accident. Can they produce everything at location? If not where do they get spares?
I would not expect many if any, colonies to migrate on their own to a virgin resource body in the Oort. Though there may be some groups who prefer that separation from the communion with the ungodly. History is replete with such splinter groups who disappear into the wilderness never to be heard from again.

In general each large colony would have to be outfitted with multipley redundant basic systems and a good store of basic materials and previously manufactured stores, but these colonies will also be redesigning, rebuilding and recycling most elements of their colony continuously (like a city, it is their home, not merely a bus they are taking to get to work). It is unlikely that you will ever have the kind of major accident that would take out all of the redundant systems. Again however, I would expect colonies to group together, and even if they did start out alone, it would only take a few replications before they have a "family" group of colonies.
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Old 13th May 2018, 12:33 PM   #805
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Originally Posted by hgus View Post
I doubt this is news to any of you, but this youtube channel is all about what we are talking about here.

Science and Futurism with Isaac Arthur.

Here is the episode about the Oort-Cloud.
Thank-you!

Interesting addition to the discussion, I wasn't aware of this series.
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Old 13th May 2018, 12:38 PM   #806
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
How does Earth do that now? Same answer. Earth has always been self sufficient at whatever population it had at the time. At the time we are talking about now, having reached the Oort cloud, Earth is going to have 0% of the population of the Solar System and 0% of the resources.

You're asking that applies to the very beginning of the process and it has an obvious answer which I'm not understanding the resistance to: Early colonies will be near Earth and very much near each other.
I don't know about 0%, but I do believe that Earth's resources will likely be zealously guarded by and for Earth's population in that time frame.
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Old 13th May 2018, 12:59 PM   #807
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I have no problem with going through the Oort cloud.

I have no problem with somehow mining the Oort cloud (given an appropriate technology)

I have a problem with the Oort cloud as a place to live, as opposed to a place to use (robotically) or travel through (without stopping - and presumably with some form of suspended animation).
But see, you're getting in to magic technology there. What if suspended animation never happens?
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Old 13th May 2018, 01:01 PM   #808
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Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
I don't know about 0%, but I do believe that Earth's resources will likely be zealously guarded by and for Earth's population in that time frame.
0% of the population to a few decimal places. It only has significant accessible resources if we disassemble it.
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Old 13th May 2018, 01:08 PM   #809
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
How does Earth do that now? Same answer. Earth has always been self sufficient at whatever population it had at the time. At the time we are talking about now, having reached the Oort cloud, Earth is going to have 0% of the population of the Solar System and 0% of the resources.

You're asking that applies to the very beginning of the process and it has an obvious answer which I'm not understanding the resistance to: Early colonies will be near Earth and very much near each other.
I have no doubt that by the time humanity has the ability to colonise the Oort cloud, the Earth would be a small fraction of the resources.

That is why resource pressure can't be the driver for colonising the Oort cloud.

If we are assuming 5-Earth masses, but 5,000 AU from Earth (or indeed the Kuiper belt) then the Earth-Moon system has maybe 10^21 kg water, which is equivalent to maybe a hundred million Ooort objects, but (for the next few million years) it also has Solar energy at 25-million times the intensity of that at the closest Oort cloud object, which itself has 400 times more than the furthest objects (taking NASA's 100,000-AU as the outer distance).

If resource pressures are the reason, the Oort cloud would supply very little.
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Old 13th May 2018, 01:16 PM   #810
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I have no problem with somehow mining the Oort cloud (given an appropriate technology)
You didn't reply to the post I made in response to one of yours suggesting that colonisation (perhaps by robots) would be a more efficient means of mining the Oort Cloud for use in the inner solar system than not colonising it.

I'll quote it here to save you the trouble in case you missed it earlier:

Quote:
Let's say you want to send the resources of the Oort Cloud to the inner solar system.

Do you:
A: Send a ship to the Oort Cloud from the inner solar system, have it capture an Oort Cloud object, and then return to the inner solar system. Then when you want another object repeat with another ship.
B: Send a ship to the Oort Cloud from the inner solar system. Have it capture some Oort Cloud object and use those resources to build another ship that will then capture another Oort Cloud object. Use some fraction of the resources thus captured to send some fraction of the Oort Cloud objects to the inner solar system while using the remainder to maintain and build the infrastructure to continue this project.

(both projects could potentially be entirely automated)
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Old 13th May 2018, 01:22 PM   #811
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I have no problem with somehow mining the Oort cloud (given an appropriate technology)
You didn't reply to the post I made in response to one of yours suggesting that colonisation (perhaps by robots) would be a more efficient means of mining the Oort Cloud for use in the inner solar system than not colonising it.

I'll quote it here to save you the trouble in case you missed it earlier:

Quote:
Let's say you want to send the resources of the Oort Cloud to the inner solar system.

Do you:
A: Send a ship to the Oort Cloud from the inner solar system, have it capture an Oort Cloud object, and then return to the inner solar system. Then when you want another object repeat with another ship.
B: Send a ship to the Oort Cloud from the inner solar system. Have it capture some Oort Cloud object and use those resources to build another ship that will then capture another Oort Cloud object. Use some fraction of the resources thus captured to send some fraction of the Oort Cloud objects to the inner solar system while using the remainder to maintain and build the infrastructure to continue this project.

(both projects could potentially be entirely automated)

Apologies, I haven't thought through the pros and cons. I suspect B because of the sheer distance involved. Either way I'd guess it would be something akin to a medieval cathedral building project, where the instigators are not going to see it completed.
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US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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Old 13th May 2018, 01:35 PM   #812
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Your body is able to rebuild itself in many ways, and reproduction (both sexual and asexual) is the process of building a complete copy with functioning organs from basic parts. It's an incredibly complex system, more so in fact than any piece of modern technology you care to mention, yet it's able to do what you seem to think is impossible.

Is life "fantastic tech"?
Life is fantastic. But for this discussion I thought it was clear that "fantastic tech" was referring to tech that is beyond what we can think of now.

Edit: Maybe I should use the term "magic tech" but that has a taunting sound to me.

Last edited by hgus; 13th May 2018 at 01:42 PM.
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Old 13th May 2018, 02:06 PM   #813
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Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
I would not expect many if any, colonies to migrate on their own to a virgin resource body in the Oort. Though there may be some groups who prefer that separation from the communion with the ungodly. History is replete with such splinter groups who disappear into the wilderness never to be heard from again.
I agree with you here. Religious/alternative lifestyle groups, penal colonies and such would probably be most likely candidates.

Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
In general each large colony would have to be outfitted with multipley redundant basic systems and a good store of basic materials and previously manufactured stores, but these colonies will also be redesigning, rebuilding and recycling most elements of their colony continuously (like a city, it is their home, not merely a bus they are taking to get to work). It is unlikely that you will ever have the kind of major accident that would take out all of the redundant systems. Again however, I would expect colonies to group together, and even if they did start out alone, it would only take a few replications before they have a "family" group of colonies.
I am a lot more pessimistic than you. I see a lot of problems with outer and inner security. Human screw ups, such as a missing shipment of a strategical resource, terrorism, disease and what not. I hope you are right and I am wrong.



Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
Thank-you!

Interesting addition to the discussion, I wasn't aware of this series.
I am glad you liked it.
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Old 13th May 2018, 03:37 PM   #814
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Originally Posted by hgus View Post
Life is fantastic. But for this discussion I thought it was clear that "fantastic tech" was referring to tech that is beyond what we can think of now.

Edit: Maybe I should use the term "magic tech" but that has a taunting sound to me.
We are talking about a civilization tens or hundreds of thousands of years in the future. I think the idea of limiting the discussion to technology that we know is possible is a good one, but anything that living systems can do is certainly possible and I can't think of any mechanism that would prevent us, given enough time, from figuring out how to achieve those proven to be possible things.
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Old 14th May 2018, 09:31 AM   #815
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Interesting discussion people,

Thank-you all for your active (and passive) participation. Discussions of this type have always been the reason I enjoy visiting and participating on these types of message boards. We often bring different perspectives and understandings to discussions, but, it was nice to see that even though we frequently disagreed, for the most part, we managed to keep being disagreeable to a minimum. I look forward to additional such discussions, but both my work and home schedule are conspiring to limit my availability for the next month or so.

I'll follow up here as I can, good discussion,

...and thank-you again, each and all.

Trakar
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