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Tags Coronavirus , prediction thread , predictions

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Old 28th March 2020, 07:23 AM   #121
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Not a lot new in here but this is another article about how things are likely to change due to coronavirus.
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Old 28th March 2020, 08:55 AM   #122
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after? ok.
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Old 28th March 2020, 09:08 AM   #123
Squeegee Beckenheim
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
after? ok.
I think it's fair to interpret it as "after it's no longer a crisis".

As time goes on and more people have been infected immunity will rise, which will itself slow the spread. What's more, as the virus continues to mutate its lethality will go down, because strains which are less likely to kill will have longer to infect other people and therefore propagate.

I know you're probably getting at the fact that this likely won't go away and will instead always be with us, like the flu. That tends to be the opinion of most experts, so it's a reasonable opinion to hold. But even if no vaccine is ever developed, it won't always be this huge pandemic that overwhelms everybody's healthcare systems.
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Old 28th March 2020, 09:57 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
As time goes on and more people have been infected immunity will rise, which will itself slow the spread.
Do we have any examples yet for immunity to this coronavirus?


Quote:
But even if no vaccine is ever developed, it won't always be this huge pandemic that overwhelms everybody's healthcare systems.
It will just be a world without anyone older than 80 years.
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Old 28th March 2020, 10:48 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
In the face of today's myriad challenges, how well is everyone applying, say, the terrifically hard lessons of WWII or the Holocaust, even in Israel? Embracing fascism, much? I rest my case.
Never mind WWII, we unlearned the lessons of the "war to end all wars" in two decades!

[quote=Hlafordlaes;13035889]
This event marks the definitive rise of Asia and decline of the West.[/QUOTE[

I keep seeing that said, but I'm not seeing how or why myself. China's economy will be just as crippled as everyone else.

Right now, they're back at work and producing for the domestic market only, and that won't keep them going. They need to export, and they're not exporting anything at all.

And on the "why" front, where did all this start? The only reason they've made any progress politically outside China is by dollar diplomacy. The countries who have taken those dollars will find the well is presently dry.

Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
The US has lost its place, role, moral and political authority, and much of its former unmatched ability to influence the world.
They already had, but until military might can be overcome, they aren't going away.

Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
Short term prediction: The dollar will fall as reserve currency...
I wish, but the exact opposite is true - money has come for the USD in a tsunami. Same as their military might - there just isn't anywhere else, and it will never be China.
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Old 28th March 2020, 11:01 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
History indicates that all will recede in importance as other matters come to the fore. After all, most memory and all of caution were forgotten in the century since the last major epidemic. In the face of today's myriad challenges, how well is everyone applying, say, the terrifically hard lessons of WWII or the Holocaust, even in Israel? Embracing fascism, much? I rest my case.

Humanity is forever only one small step out of the cave. All it ever takes is for one generation to fail to take that step, to be too weak to look past shiny bling and beckoning self-interest, as is the case of the, ahem, much-vaunted "greatest" USA.

This event marks the definitive rise of Asia and decline of the West. The US has lost its place, role, moral and political authority, and much of its former unmatched ability to influence the world. Voluntarily, btw, through sheer pigheadedness, pride, and stupidity. Not that the Chinese will learn or heed this lesson, as they in turn enjoy the unrestrained ability to undermine all but their own power and interest alone, like the ignorant bullies that came before them. The difference is that their fall may not come for centuries, even millennia. There will be no high-minded efforts (or low-minded treason) to come to the aid of those who would violently oppose them and all they stand for, or to allow their sworn enemies to share in the fruits of whatever is left of modernity enough to become any sort of threat to them. That bitter lesson is one all shall have taken to heart.
  • Short term prediction: The dollar will fall as reserve currency, and for the first time in generations, Americans will have to earn an honest living and deal from the position of relative weakness that the bleak failure of the nation to invest in fact-based education has left it in, apart from massive debt that is now near impossible to service, aging and broken infrastructure, the consequences of poisoning large swathes of otherwise arable land, and the continued stupifying presence of the descendants of the mindless religionists that Europe had to rid itself of as impossibly brain dead.
  • Midterm prediction: On the whole, the US will ironically be a far better place because of it...
  • Final prediction: ...until overrun and crushed.

Oh, and I certainly do not envy what's in store for Japan.

Uh ... OK.
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Old 28th March 2020, 11:50 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
Do we have any examples yet for immunity to this coronavirus?
Okay, immunity will likely rise.

Quote:
It will just be a world without anyone older than 80 years.
People older than 80 have recovered.
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Old 28th March 2020, 12:01 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
Uh ... OK.
...
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Old Yesterday, 01:07 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I keep seeing that said, but I'm not seeing how or why myself. China's economy will be just as crippled as everyone else.

Right now, they're back at work and producing for the domestic market only, and that won't keep them going. They need to export, and they're not exporting anything at all.
Things are just starting in the US. I think it's going to be a considerable time before people will be back at work. How long do you estimate before the US will be in a similar 'stage' to where China is now?
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Old Yesterday, 01:38 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
Things are just starting in the US. I think it's going to be a considerable time before people will be back at work. How long do you estimate before the US will be in a similar 'stage' to where China is now?
Couple of months. Their slow start will be sped up by the rate of infection and death increases, and all states will be taking action soon.

China was able to just shut down the portion of the country with infection and America can't do that.

Which means that China won't be getting significant work from USA for a while.
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