Can the Dems retain the House Speaker??! - Page 8

sackett · 5th January 2023, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

Why should this problem exist in the first place? The Dems had a majority before the election.

again, we see how it is the Damnocrats' fault. Thus it has always been and shall be, to the end of Time.

And Life, and Look, and Newsweek, and National Review, and True The Man's Magazine.

crescent · 5th January 2023, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by Random

A procedural change like that could be made with a straight majority vote, but when you game it out it's just a more complicated version of what we already have. The never-Kevins will say no, and then you would need Democratic votes, but why would they help Kevin? And around and around we go...

But the Democratic candidate, Jeffries, keeps getting the most votes. In all six votes so far Jeffries has had the most votes every time.

So he would win and we would have a Democratic Speaker of the House.

Unless the hard right holdouts stopped holding out. They would no longer be able to prevent anyone from being speaker. It's a bit counter-intuitive. By going with the winner of a plurality, it forces them into a binary choice, Dem or Republican. The third option of "neither" loses it teeth.

And that would be the point of going with a plurality. To force that binary choice and eliminate the effectiveness of the blocking tactics.

But again - how can the House vote on a rule change right now? There is no speaker, there are no committees, the member's previous terms have expired and they have not been sworn in for the new terms - they are referring to each other as "Representative-elect", not just "Representative". The House is not actually even in session until they choose a speaker. There is no House of Representatives right now.

lobosrul5 · 5th January 2023, 09:53 AM

Originally Posted by Donal

Plus, Jefferies has the plurality right now. any Republican to support that might as well just vote for him or "present".

By my math... and I could be wrong, 11 members of the GOP would need to vote "present" for Jeffries to win with the 212 votes he's gotten on ever ballot so far*. OR, just 6 members of the GOP need to switch to voting for Jefferies.

*the voting pool would shrink from 434 to 423 and 212 votes would be over half of 423.

crescent · 5th January 2023, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

By my math... and I could be wrong, 11 members of the GOP would need to vote "present" for Jeffries to win with the 212 votes he's gotten on ever ballot so far. OR, just 6 members of the GOP need to switch to voting for Jefferies.

Only if they are going for a majority.

In a plurality, the one with the most votes wins - period. It would not need to be a majority.

Segnosaur · 5th January 2023, 09:56 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Why should the Democrats bend over backwards to fix a problem that's entirely of the Republicans' making ?

Because without a functioning congress/house of representatives, how will the government accomplish important business, like impeaching Biden, launching multiple investigations into Hunter Biden's laptop, and obstructing anything the democrats do.

lobosrul5 · 5th January 2023, 10:01 AM

Originally Posted by crescent

Only if they are going for a majority.

In a plurality, the one with the most votes wins - period. It would not need to be a majority.

True, but the numbers remain the same with a vote to make plurality the winner (which requires a majority). Either 11 members need to abstain or vote "present" or 6 members of the GoP need to vote for the plurality option. Its in effect, the same. Although they wouldn't actually have it on the record that they voted for a dem SOTH.

Donal · 5th January 2023, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

True, but the numbers remain the same with a vote to make plurality the winner (which requires a majority). Either 11 members need to abstain or vote "present" or 6 members of the GoP need to vote for the plurality option. Its in effect, the same. Although they wouldn't actually have it on the record that they voted for a dem SOTH.

The simple fact is agreeing to a plurality either gives it to McCarthy, which just highlites what a pathetic failure this all has been, or Jefferies.

On a related note, would Jefferies even want the job? With a Democratic majority, sure. But why put his name at the top of this mess?

lobosrul5 · 5th January 2023, 10:11 AM

Originally Posted by Donal

The simple fact is agreeing to a plurality either gives it to McCarthy, which just highlites what a pathetic failure this all has been, or Jefferies.

On a related note, would Jefferies even want the job? With a Democratic majority, sure. But why put his name at the top of this mess?

Oh it would be foolish for him to not accept. The SOTH is the 2nd most powerful position in politics in the USA... yes more than VPOTUS. They determine committee appointments and determine what legislation is even allowed to go to a floor vote... I believe a dem SOTH would absolutely stop any Hunter Biden laptop investigations for example.

Also lets not discount the slight possibility of both Biden and Harris not surviving til January '25.

ETA: yeah you are right that I'm not precisely correct on the plurality thing. It would force GoP members to either vote for McCarthy OR put Jeffries in as SOTH... or they could calculate vote totals and ensure a 212-212-10 deadlock.

The Don · 5th January 2023, 10:15 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

True, but the numbers remain the same with a vote to make plurality the winner (which requires a majority). Either 11 members need to abstain or vote "present" or 6 members of the GoP need to vote for the plurality option. Its in effect, the same. Although they wouldn't actually have it on the record that they voted for a dem SOTH.

I thought psionl0's suggesion was that in the event that no candidate achieved a majority, the two leading candidates (in this case Jeffrey's and McCarthy) would then run off and the one who gets the most votes wins.

Of course this could still lead to a minority speaker and hence instability so I'm not sure that the problem is solved. The underlying issue is that no candidate can get the majority of votes.

carlosy · 5th January 2023, 10:28 AM

He looks quite positive. I guess McCarthy has managed to persuade a few of the 20. The rest will probably give in after two more ballots

Donal · 5th January 2023, 10:34 AM

ya, but he may also alienate people who were already voting for him.

acbytesla · 5th January 2023, 10:38 AM

Originally Posted by psionl0

This is such a ludicrous situation. There is no constitutional requirement for an absolute majority of MHRs (218) to vote to elect the speaker. The constitution only says "The House of Representatives shall choose their Speaker and other Officers".

The house could easily make it a rule that the speaker only needs a majority of the votes cast. If nobody gains a majority then a run-off vote could be called.

The problem seems to be that the Democrats want to be able to play the same dirty politics that the GOP plays so they never fix potential hang-ups like this when given the opportunity.

Wow! Blame the dysfunction of the Republican party on the Democrats? There is nothing dirty about this. The Democrats are voting for their candidate for speaker. The Republicans could vote for Jeffries if they wanted.

Are you going to blame the Democrats when the Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling and force America to go bankrupt?

The Don · 5th January 2023, 10:42 AM

Originally Posted by Donal

ya, but he may also alienate people who were already voting for him.

Have any of them got a spine ?

No matter what concessions he had to make to the Freedom Caucus, the rest of the party will meekly fall in line. The bravest among them may risk a few words of mild concern before casting their votes for McCarthy.

I guess we're looking at committee chairs and Biden impeachment.

lobosrul5 · 5th January 2023, 10:43 AM

McCarthy appears to have lost round 7.

carlosy · 5th January 2023, 10:46 AM

Yep, but the question will be 'how many' this time. Less than 20?

lobosrul5 · 5th January 2023, 10:47 AM

Originally Posted by acbytesla

Wow! Blame the dysfunction of the Republican party on the Democrats? There is nothing dirty about this. The Democrats are voting for their candidate for speaker. The Republicans could vote for Jeffries if they wanted.

Are you going to blame the Democrats when the Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling and force America to go bankrupt?

Once we are at that point it will be time for the Dems to "do the right thing" and vote for McCarthy IMO. The enormity of a US debt default just cannot be understated, think Great Depression^2. Hell I will refuse to ever vote Dem again if they do, and thats if we don't devolve into total anarchy and actually still have elections. I'll vote for myself as write-in not GoP FYI.

I believe we have almost a year though.

Upchurch · 5th January 2023, 10:47 AM

Originally Posted by Tero

He is one of the very few people in the country that has been shot at by antifa:

I remember that incident. I don't remember it having anything to do with antifa.

Segnosaur · 5th January 2023, 10:53 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Quote:

Wow! Blame the dysfunction of the Republican party on the Democrats? There is nothing dirty about this. The Democrats are voting for their candidate for speaker. The Republicans could vote for Jeffries if they wanted.

Are you going to blame the Democrats when the Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling and force America to go bankrupt?

Once we are at that point it will be time for the Dems to "do the right thing" and vote for McCarthy IMO.

You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling.

More likely he will say "thank you democrats. Now that I am speaker I can take my role of investigating Hunter Biden's laptop more seriously. I'll get around to raising the debt ceiling next year after we've impeached biden and repealed obamacare."

lobosrul5 · 5th January 2023, 10:56 AM

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling.

More likely he will say "thank you democrats. Now that I am speaker I can take my role of investigating Hunter Biden's laptop more seriously. I'll get around to raising the debt ceiling next year after we've impeached biden and repealed obamacare."

In which case I wouldn't put any blame on the dems... theres nothing they can do at that point.

lobosrul5 · 5th January 2023, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by carlosy

Yep, but the question will be 'how many' this time. Less than 20?

Unsure yet... but things are getting loonier...

Rep. Matt Gaetz voted for former President Donald Trump in the speakership election.

smartcooky · 5th January 2023, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by crescent

Only if they are going for a majority.

In a plurality, the one with the most votes wins - period. It would not need to be a majority.

Indeed. In a 435 seat House, if there are three candidates for speaker, then under a plurality vote, if

A gets 144
B gets 146
C gets 145

B wins.

ferd burfle · 5th January 2023, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by Bob001

It would also throw a monkeywrench into the machine if somebody stood up and nominated Donald Trump. Repubs would have to choose to vote for him or against him, or timidly vote "present."

Given his ignorance of how the US government works he probably thinks the Speaker of the House does all the speaking. Can you* imagine him sitting quietly while people not named Donald Trump get to speak at length in the same room?

*(not you Bob)

crescent · 5th January 2023, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling.

...or that McCarthy has even offered that sort of concession.

If the Republicans want to snag a few Democrat votes, they need to make an offer. Some sort of compromise, concession, and offer of some sort. Maybe a Dem or two get to keep a committee chair, even if it is just an obscure committee that oversees legislation that nobody even cares about. Maybe an offer in writing to ensure no government shutdowns. Limits on investigations, tighter ethics rules. Make some sort of offer for something the Dems want.

So far there don't seem to be any offers like that.

Segnosaur · 5th January 2023, 11:03 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Quote:

You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling.

More likely he will say "thank you democrats. Now that I am speaker I can take my role of investigating Hunter Biden's laptop more seriously. I'll get around to raising the debt ceiling next year after we've impeached biden and repealed obamacare."

In which case I wouldn't put any blame on the dems... theres nothing they can do at that point.

I also don't think you should blame the democrats if they are suspicious enough of McCarthy's motives before hand that they would simply not want to help him.

Nobody has a crystal ball; Democrats can only base their decisions on what has happened before, and before we had McCarthy:
- Complain about the long-term Omnisbus spending bill
- Fail to act against Gozar and Greene
- Threaten to kick democrats off committees

So McCarthy is a nasty piece of work and even if he is speaker he will likely crash the economy out of spite.

slyjoe · 5th January 2023, 11:06 AM

Interesting fact: the reps can change their votes at any time before the vote is closed.

acbytesla · 5th January 2023, 11:07 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Once we are at that point it will be time for the Dems to "do the right thing" and vote for McCarthy IMO. The enormity of a US debt default just cannot be understated, think Great Depression^2. Hell I will refuse to ever vote Dem again if they do, and thats if we don't devolve into total anarchy and actually still have elections. I'll vote for myself as write-in not GoP FYI.

I believe we have almost a year though.

Really? If the Republicans want to do something about the debt. They can. They can raise taxes on the wealthy. Eliminate tax loopholes and beef up the IRS. For the last 50 years I've seen Republicans complain about the debt yet when given the opportunity to reduce it they don't.

I see no reason for the Democrats to vote for McCarthy. He's nust as likely to cause a default on US Debt as any member of the Freedom Caucus.

acbytesla · 5th January 2023, 11:10 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

Unsure yet... but things are getting loonier...

Rep. Matt Gaetz voted for former President Donald Trump in the speakership election.

If his head was any further up Donnie's ass he could taste the Quarter Pounder Trump had last night.

Segnosaur · 5th January 2023, 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by crescent

Quote:

You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling.

...or that McCarthy has even offered that sort of concession.

If the Republicans want to snag a few Democrat votes, they need to make an offer. Some sort of compromise, concession, and offer of some sort. Maybe a Dem or two get to keep a committee chair, even if it is just an obscure committee that oversees legislation that nobody even cares about. Maybe an offer in writing to ensure no government shutdowns. Limits on investigations, tighter ethics rules. Make some sort of offer for something the Dems want.

So far there don't seem to be any offers like that.

2 problems:

- It still requires that the republicans act as Trustworthy individuals when they should not be trusted. Even if they reach a deal such as to retain certain committee chairs in exchange for supporting McCarthy, republicans will find some sort of loophole. "We promised the democrats to have committee chairs, but now we changed the rules and will create the position of super-chair, filled by a republican, who can overide the democrat chair". Or a deal to prevent shutdowns? "Sure we failed to raise the debt ceiling. But we are willing to vote on a bill allowing government employees to work for free. Its not our fault they said no".

- It assumes that McCarthy can actually follow through. (After all, I am sure he has promised a lot of things to his own supporters, and reneging on those deals to get Democrats to support him might lead to a revolt)

And why exactly would the Democrats bother trading in their integrity for supporting an individual who can't be trusted for a few committee assignments that are irrelevant? Why not just ask him for some magic beans?

Segnosaur · 5th January 2023, 11:16 AM

Originally Posted by slyjoe

Interesting fact: the reps can change their votes at any time before the vote is closed.

Interesting. Any limit on this?

Just wondering if you can get a case where a Democrat (for example) decides to abstain, which causes a Republican to change their vote , which then causes the Democrat to change from abstaining to voting for Jeffries, which causes the republican to change their vote again, etc....

Doubt · 5th January 2023, 11:18 AM

The fecal follies continue. 8th time is a charm?

smartcooky · 5th January 2023, 11:20 AM

Final count of Seventh Ballot

McCarthy 201
Donalds 19
Jeffries 212
Present 1
Trump 1

ETA: McKiss-Arse claims that there has been "progress" but the tale of the tape tells a different story...

Round	McCarthy	Jeffries	Other	Present
First	203	212	19	0
Second	203	212	19	0
Third	202	212	20	0
Fourth	201	212	20	1
Fifth	201	212	20	1
Sixth	201	212	20	1
Seventh	201	212	20	1

This looks more like things getting worse for him rather than better.

carlosy · 5th January 2023, 11:21 AM

Are they legally required to do a ballot every day until there is a speaker? Or could they just adjourn for a few days/weeks?

carlosy · 5th January 2023, 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by smartcooky

Final count of Seventh Ballot

McCarthy 201
Donalds 18
Jeffries 212
Present 1
Trump 1

C-SPAN stream says Donalds 19

sackett · 5th January 2023, 11:22 AM

#Crescent says "Maybe an offer in writing to ensure no government shutdowns."

Yes, in writing, with signatures, published and read into the House record. And formally accepted and made public in exactly the same way by the democrats. A contract.

Then let Partei Trumpf whirl itself into fragments as it violates letter and spirit of an agreement entered into for the good of the country.

It would make a gargoyle grin.

lobosrul5 · 5th January 2023, 11:22 AM

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

2 problems:

- It still requires that the republicans act as Trustworthy individuals when they should not be trusted. Even if they reach a deal such as to retain certain committee chairs in exchange for supporting McCarthy, republicans will find some sort of loophole. "We promised the democrats to have committee chairs, but now we changed the rules and will create the position of super-chair, filled by a republican, who can overide the democrat chair". Or a deal to prevent shutdowns? "Sure we failed to raise the debt ceiling. But we are willing to vote on a bill allowing government employees to work for free. Its not our fault they said no".

- It assumes that McCarthy can actually follow through. (After all, I am sure he has promised a lot of things to his own supporters, and reneging on those deals to get Democrats to support him might lead to a revolt)

And why exactly would the Democrats bother trading in their integrity for supporting an individual who can't be trusted for a few committee assignments that are irrelevant? Why not just ask him for some magic beans?

I think this is about the last I'll say on this specific subject for now...

Why? Because not doing so will result in catastrophic consequences for all Americans... and actually every economy tied to ours, so almost everywhere.

We are months away from a default being a reality so this is jumping the gun. We're on vote 7 it might be vote 700 before the Dems need to even start to think about compromising. By then HOPEFULLY the American people can start to see what a dysfunctional idiotic mess the GoP is and no matter what they will lose in '24 by a huge landslide. If not, we're just kicking the can down the road no matter what. If the voters of this country are so ******* stupid to put these reactionary moronic sycophantic buttholes in office ever again then we're headed for disaster no matter what. But you know what, I thought the same thing after Trump.

The consequences of having a dysfunctional House right now mainly means no oversight of the Biden administration so... yeah I don't really care.

Seriously questioning if I can afford to move out of this ridiculous country.

smartcooky · 5th January 2023, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by carlosy

C-SPAN stream says Donalds 19

Yup, it just changed for me on the Live count at

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ote-tally.html

Trebuchet · 5th January 2023, 11:35 AM

Originally Posted by smartcooky

Indeed. In a 435 seat House, if there are three candidates for speaker, then under a plurality vote, if

A gets 144
B gets 146
C gets 145

B wins.

Nitpick: It's only 434 at the moment due to a vacancy. Someone died, I think.

ETA: I think. Can't find the specifics.

smartcooky · 5th January 2023, 11:36 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I think this is about the last I'll say on this specific subject for now...

Why? Because not doing so will result in catastrophic consequences for all Americans... and actually every economy tied to ours, so almost everywhere.

We are months away from a default being a reality so this is jumping the gun. We're on vote 7 it might be vote 700 before the Dems need to even start to think about compromising. By then HOPEFULLY the American people can start to see what a dysfunctional idiotic mess the GoP is and no matter what they will lose in '24 by a huge landslide. If not, we're just kicking the can down the road no matter what. If the voters of this country are so ******* stupid to put these reactionary moronic sycophantic buttholes in office ever again then we're headed for disaster no matter what. But you know what, I thought the same thing after Trump.

The consequences of having a dysfunctional House right now mainly means no oversight of the Biden administration so... yeah I don't really care.

Seriously questioning if I can afford to move out of this ridiculous country.

My oldest daughter (who now owns my photo lab after I retired), tells me she has been taking more immigration photos for Americans coming to live in New Zealand than we have ever done before. In the past, we might have done maybe a half dozen per year at most, but she tells me she has done about 30 in November and December, and another half dozen in the two days since she re-opened after the Christmas break. In a town of less than 18,000, that is extraordinary!

Norman Alexander · 5th January 2023, 11:44 AM

Originally Posted by lobosrul5

I think this is about the last I'll say on this specific subject for now...

Why? Because not doing so will result in catastrophic consequences for all Americans... and actually every economy tied to ours, so almost everywhere.

We are months away from a default being a reality so this is jumping the gun. We're on vote 7 it might be vote 700 before the Dems need to even start to think about compromising. By then HOPEFULLY the American people can start to see what a dysfunctional idiotic mess the GoP is and no matter what they will lose in '24 by a huge landslide. If not, we're just kicking the can down the road no matter what. If the voters of this country are so ******* stupid to put these reactionary moronic sycophantic buttholes in office ever again then we're headed for disaster no matter what. But you know what, I thought the same thing after Trump.

The consequences of having a dysfunctional House right now mainly means no oversight of the Biden administration so... yeah I don't really care.

Seriously questioning if I can afford to move out of this ridiculous country.

We understand. You are seriously and rightly concerned about the common good and the country as a whole. Any right-thinking congressperson would look to sensible compromises.

The problem is the GOP are not right-thinking. Any compromise with them is written in sand, in smoke, with a smirk. They simply cannot be trusted. They certainly do not have the good of the country in any of their tiny minds.

So why should the Democrats concede a thing? The ball remains firmly with the GOP. They are the ones royally screwing the pooch, each other, and the country.

Norman Alexander · 5th January 2023, 12:00 PM

By the way, and because I never watch the stuff, how is Fox News and Friends reporting this debacle? Truthfully and fully? Without bias?

Betting this is all the Dems fault, according to Fox.

5th January 2023, 09:51 AM	#281
sackett Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Detroit Posts: 8,304	And so, children, once Originally Posted by psionl0 Why should this problem exist in the first place? The Dems had a majority before the election. again, we see how it is the Damnocrats' fault. Thus it has always been and shall be, to the end of Time. And Life, and Look, and Newsweek, and National Review, and True The Man's Magazine.
	__________________ If you would learn a man's character, give him authority. If you would ruin a man's character, let him seize power.

5th January 2023, 09:51 AM	#282
crescent Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Colorado Posts: 5,315	Originally Posted by Random A procedural change like that could be made with a straight majority vote, but when you game it out it's just a more complicated version of what we already have. The never-Kevins will say no, and then you would need Democratic votes, but why would they help Kevin? And around and around we go... But the Democratic candidate, Jeffries, keeps getting the most votes. In all six votes so far Jeffries has had the most votes every time. So he would win and we would have a Democratic Speaker of the House. Unless the hard right holdouts stopped holding out. They would no longer be able to prevent anyone from being speaker. It's a bit counter-intuitive. By going with the winner of a plurality, it forces them into a binary choice, Dem or Republican. The third option of "neither" loses it teeth. And that would be the point of going with a plurality. To force that binary choice and eliminate the effectiveness of the blocking tactics. But again - how can the House vote on a rule change right now? There is no speaker, there are no committees, the member's previous terms have expired and they have not been sworn in for the new terms - they are referring to each other as "Representative-elect", not just "Representative". The House is not actually even in session until they choose a speaker. There is no House of Representatives right now.
	Last edited by crescent; 5th January 2023 at 09:53 AM.

5th January 2023, 09:53 AM	#283
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Originally Posted by Donal Plus, Jefferies has the plurality right now. any Republican to support that might as well just vote for him or "present". By my math... and I could be wrong, 11 members of the GOP would need to vote "present" for Jeffries to win with the 212 votes he's gotten on ever ballot so far. OR, just 6 members of the GOP need to switch to voting for Jefferies. the voting pool would shrink from 434 to 423 and 212 votes would be over half of 423.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Last edited by lobosrul5; 5th January 2023 at 09:55 AM.

5th January 2023, 09:56 AM	#285
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 19,656	Originally Posted by The Don Why should the Democrats bend over backwards to fix a problem that's entirely of the Republicans' making ? Because without a functioning congress/house of representatives, how will the government accomplish important business, like impeaching Biden, launching multiple investigations into Hunter Biden's laptop, and obstructing anything the democrats do.
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

5th January 2023, 10:01 AM	#286
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Originally Posted by crescent Only if they are going for a majority. In a plurality, the one with the most votes wins - period. It would not need to be a majority. True, but the numbers remain the same with a vote to make plurality the winner (which requires a majority). Either 11 members need to abstain or vote "present" or 6 members of the GoP need to vote for the plurality option. Its in effect, the same. Although they wouldn't actually have it on the record that they voted for a dem SOTH.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419

5th January 2023, 09:55 AM	#284
crescent Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Colorado Posts: 5,315	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 By my math... and I could be wrong, 11 members of the GOP would need to vote "present" for Jeffries to win with the 212 votes he's gotten on ever ballot so far. OR, just 6 members of the GOP need to switch to voting for Jefferies. Only if they are going for a majority. In a plurality, the one with the most votes wins - period. It would not need to be a majority.

5th January 2023, 10:06 AM	#287
Donal Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 5,285	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 True, but the numbers remain the same with a vote to make plurality the winner (which requires a majority). Either 11 members need to abstain or vote "present" or 6 members of the GoP need to vote for the plurality option. Its in effect, the same. Although they wouldn't actually have it on the record that they voted for a dem SOTH. The simple fact is agreeing to a plurality either gives it to McCarthy, which just highlites what a pathetic failure this all has been, or Jefferies. On a related note, would Jefferies even want the job? With a Democratic majority, sure. But why put his name at the top of this mess?
Donal Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 5,285	__________________ SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense

5th January 2023, 10:11 AM	#288
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Originally Posted by Donal The simple fact is agreeing to a plurality either gives it to McCarthy, which just highlites what a pathetic failure this all has been, or Jefferies. On a related note, would Jefferies even want the job? With a Democratic majority, sure. But why put his name at the top of this mess? Oh it would be foolish for him to not accept. The SOTH is the 2nd most powerful position in politics in the USA... yes more than VPOTUS. They determine committee appointments and determine what legislation is even allowed to go to a floor vote... I believe a dem SOTH would absolutely stop any Hunter Biden laptop investigations for example. Also lets not discount the slight possibility of both Biden and Harris not surviving til January '25. ETA: yeah you are right that I'm not precisely correct on the plurality thing. It would force GoP members to either vote for McCarthy OR put Jeffries in as SOTH... or they could calculate vote totals and ensure a 212-212-10 deadlock.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Last edited by lobosrul5; 5th January 2023 at 10:13 AM.

5th January 2023, 10:15 AM	#289
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,323	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 True, but the numbers remain the same with a vote to make plurality the winner (which requires a majority). Either 11 members need to abstain or vote "present" or 6 members of the GoP need to vote for the plurality option. Its in effect, the same. Although they wouldn't actually have it on the record that they voted for a dem SOTH. I thought psionl0's suggesion was that in the event that no candidate achieved a majority, the two leading candidates (in this case Jeffrey's and McCarthy) would then run off and the one who gets the most votes wins. Of course this could still lead to a minority speaker and hence instability so I'm not sure that the problem is solved. The underlying issue is that no candidate can get the majority of votes.

5th January 2023, 10:28 AM	#290
carlosy Muse Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 556	He looks quite positive. I guess McCarthy has managed to persuade a few of the 20. The rest will probably give in after two more ballots
carlosy Muse Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 556

5th January 2023, 10:34 AM	#291
Donal Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 5,285	ya, but he may also alienate people who were already voting for him.
Donal Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 5,285	__________________ SuburbanNerd A blog for making tech make sense

5th January 2023, 10:38 AM	#292
acbytesla Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 31,385	Originally Posted by psionl0 This is such a ludicrous situation. There is no constitutional requirement for an absolute majority of MHRs (218) to vote to elect the speaker. The constitution only says "The House of Representatives shall choose their Speaker and other Officers". The house could easily make it a rule that the speaker only needs a majority of the votes cast. If nobody gains a majority then a run-off vote could be called. The problem seems to be that the Democrats want to be able to play the same dirty politics that the GOP plays so they never fix potential hang-ups like this when given the opportunity. Wow! Blame the dysfunction of the Republican party on the Democrats? There is nothing dirty about this. The Democrats are voting for their candidate for speaker. The Republicans could vote for Jeffries if they wanted. Are you going to blame the Democrats when the Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling and force America to go bankrupt?
	__________________ Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get to me. .

5th January 2023, 10:42 AM	#293
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 36,323	Originally Posted by Donal ya, but he may also alienate people who were already voting for him. Have any of them got a spine ? No matter what concessions he had to make to the Freedom Caucus, the rest of the party will meekly fall in line. The bravest among them may risk a few words of mild concern before casting their votes for McCarthy. I guess we're looking at committee chairs and Biden impeachment.

5th January 2023, 10:43 AM	#294
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	McCarthy appears to have lost round 7.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419

5th January 2023, 10:46 AM	#295
carlosy Muse Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 556	Yep, but the question will be 'how many' this time. Less than 20?
carlosy Muse Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 556

5th January 2023, 10:47 AM	#296
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Originally Posted by acbytesla Wow! Blame the dysfunction of the Republican party on the Democrats? There is nothing dirty about this. The Democrats are voting for their candidate for speaker. The Republicans could vote for Jeffries if they wanted. Are you going to blame the Democrats when the Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling and force America to go bankrupt? Once we are at that point it will be time for the Dems to "do the right thing" and vote for McCarthy IMO. The enormity of a US debt default just cannot be understated, think Great Depression^2. Hell I will refuse to ever vote Dem again if they do, and thats if we don't devolve into total anarchy and actually still have elections. I'll vote for myself as write-in not GoP FYI. I believe we have almost a year though.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419

5th January 2023, 10:47 AM	#297
Upchurch Papa Funkosophy Join Date: May 2002 Location: St. Louis, MO Posts: 33,589	Originally Posted by Tero He is one of the very few people in the country that has been shot at by antifa: I remember that incident. I don't remember it having anything to do with antifa.
	__________________ "There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes. "It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.

5th January 2023, 10:53 AM	#298
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 19,656	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 Quote: Wow! Blame the dysfunction of the Republican party on the Democrats? There is nothing dirty about this. The Democrats are voting for their candidate for speaker. The Republicans could vote for Jeffries if they wanted. Are you going to blame the Democrats when the Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling and force America to go bankrupt? Once we are at that point it will be time for the Dems to "do the right thing" and vote for McCarthy IMO. You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling. More likely he will say "thank you democrats. Now that I am speaker I can take my role of investigating Hunter Biden's laptop more seriously. I'll get around to raising the debt ceiling next year after we've impeached biden and repealed obamacare."
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

5th January 2023, 10:56 AM	#299
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Originally Posted by Segnosaur You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling. More likely he will say "thank you democrats. Now that I am speaker I can take my role of investigating Hunter Biden's laptop more seriously. I'll get around to raising the debt ceiling next year after we've impeached biden and repealed obamacare." In which case I wouldn't put any blame on the dems... theres nothing they can do at that point.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419

5th January 2023, 10:58 AM	#300
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Originally Posted by carlosy Yep, but the question will be 'how many' this time. Less than 20? Unsure yet... but things are getting loonier... Rep. Matt Gaetz voted for former President Donald Trump in the speakership election.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419

5th January 2023, 10:58 AM	#301
smartcooky Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Nelson, New Zealand Posts: 23,089	Originally Posted by crescent Only if they are going for a majority. In a plurality, the one with the most votes wins - period. It would not need to be a majority. Indeed. In a 435 seat House, if there are three candidates for speaker, then under a plurality vote, if A gets 144 B gets 146 C gets 145 B wins.
	__________________ What is Woke? It is a term that means "awakened to the needs of others". It means to be well-informed, thoughtful, compassionate, humble and kind. Woke people are keen to make the world a better, fairer place for everyone, But, unfortunately, it has also become a pejorative used by racists, homophobes and misogynists on the political right, to describe people who possess a fully functional moral compass.

5th January 2023, 10:59 AM	#302
ferd burfle Graduate Poster Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Just short of Zeta II Reticuli Posts: 1,582	Originally Posted by Bob001 It would also throw a monkeywrench into the machine if somebody stood up and nominated Donald Trump. Repubs would have to choose to vote for him or against him, or timidly vote "present." Given his ignorance of how the US government works he probably thinks the Speaker of the House does all the speaking. Can you* imagine him sitting quietly while people not named Donald Trump get to speak at length in the same room? *(not you Bob)
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5th January 2023, 10:59 AM	#303
crescent Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Colorado Posts: 5,315	Originally Posted by Segnosaur You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling. ...or that McCarthy has even offered that sort of concession. If the Republicans want to snag a few Democrat votes, they need to make an offer. Some sort of compromise, concession, and offer of some sort. Maybe a Dem or two get to keep a committee chair, even if it is just an obscure committee that oversees legislation that nobody even cares about. Maybe an offer in writing to ensure no government shutdowns. Limits on investigations, tighter ethics rules. Make some sort of offer for something the Dems want. So far there don't seem to be any offers like that.
	Last edited by crescent; 5th January 2023 at 11:03 AM.

5th January 2023, 11:03 AM	#304
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 19,656	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 Quote: You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling. More likely he will say "thank you democrats. Now that I am speaker I can take my role of investigating Hunter Biden's laptop more seriously. I'll get around to raising the debt ceiling next year after we've impeached biden and repealed obamacare." In which case I wouldn't put any blame on the dems... theres nothing they can do at that point. I also don't think you should blame the democrats if they are suspicious enough of McCarthy's motives before hand that they would simply not want to help him. Nobody has a crystal ball; Democrats can only base their decisions on what has happened before, and before we had McCarthy: - Complain about the long-term Omnisbus spending bill - Fail to act against Gozar and Greene - Threaten to kick democrats off committees So McCarthy is a nasty piece of work and even if he is speaker he will likely crash the economy out of spite.
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

5th January 2023, 11:06 AM	#305
slyjoe Illuminator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Near Harmonica Virgins, AZ Posts: 3,445	Interesting fact: the reps can change their votes at any time before the vote is closed.
	__________________ "You have done nothing to demonstrate an understanding of scientific methodology or modern skepticism, both of which are, by necessity, driven by the facts and evidence, not by preconceptions, and both of which are strengthened by, and rely upon, change." - Arkan Wolfshade

5th January 2023, 11:07 AM	#306
acbytesla Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 31,385	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 Once we are at that point it will be time for the Dems to "do the right thing" and vote for McCarthy IMO. The enormity of a US debt default just cannot be understated, think Great Depression^2. Hell I will refuse to ever vote Dem again if they do, and thats if we don't devolve into total anarchy and actually still have elections. I'll vote for myself as write-in not GoP FYI. I believe we have almost a year though. Really? If the Republicans want to do something about the debt. They can. They can raise taxes on the wealthy. Eliminate tax loopholes and beef up the IRS. For the last 50 years I've seen Republicans complain about the debt yet when given the opportunity to reduce it they don't. I see no reason for the Democrats to vote for McCarthy. He's nust as likely to cause a default on US Debt as any member of the Freedom Caucus.
	__________________ Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get to me. .

5th January 2023, 11:10 AM	#307
acbytesla Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 31,385	Originally Posted by lobosrul5 Unsure yet... but things are getting loonier... Rep. Matt Gaetz voted for former President Donald Trump in the speakership election. If his head was any further up Donnie's ass he could taste the Quarter Pounder Trump had last night.
	__________________ Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get to me. .

5th January 2023, 11:12 AM	#308
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 19,656	Originally Posted by crescent Quote: You are of course assuming that the democrats helping McCarthy become speaker will mean that he will agree to raise the debt ceiling. ...or that McCarthy has even offered that sort of concession. If the Republicans want to snag a few Democrat votes, they need to make an offer. Some sort of compromise, concession, and offer of some sort. Maybe a Dem or two get to keep a committee chair, even if it is just an obscure committee that oversees legislation that nobody even cares about. Maybe an offer in writing to ensure no government shutdowns. Limits on investigations, tighter ethics rules. Make some sort of offer for something the Dems want. So far there don't seem to be any offers like that. 2 problems: - It still requires that the republicans act as Trustworthy individuals when they should not be trusted. Even if they reach a deal such as to retain certain committee chairs in exchange for supporting McCarthy, republicans will find some sort of loophole. "We promised the democrats to have committee chairs, but now we changed the rules and will create the position of super-chair, filled by a republican, who can overide the democrat chair". Or a deal to prevent shutdowns? "Sure we failed to raise the debt ceiling. But we are willing to vote on a bill allowing government employees to work for free. Its not our fault they said no". - It assumes that McCarthy can actually follow through. (After all, I am sure he has promised a lot of things to his own supporters, and reneging on those deals to get Democrats to support him might lead to a revolt) And why exactly would the Democrats bother trading in their integrity for supporting an individual who can't be trusted for a few committee assignments that are irrelevant? Why not just ask him for some magic beans?
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

5th January 2023, 11:16 AM	#309
Segnosaur Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Canada, eh? Posts: 19,656	Originally Posted by slyjoe Interesting fact: the reps can change their votes at any time before the vote is closed. Interesting. Any limit on this? Just wondering if you can get a case where a Democrat (for example) decides to abstain, which causes a Republican to change their vote , which then causes the Democrat to change from abstaining to voting for Jeffries, which causes the republican to change their vote again, etc....
	__________________ Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer I'm Mary Poppins Y'all! - Yondu We are Groot - Groot

5th January 2023, 11:18 AM	#310
Doubt Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 7,781	The fecal follies continue. 8th time is a charm?
Doubt Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 7,781	__________________ 45 es un titere

5th January 2023, 11:21 AM	#312
carlosy Muse Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 556	Are they legally required to do a ballot every day until there is a speaker? Or could they just adjourn for a few days/weeks?
carlosy Muse Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 556

5th January 2023, 11:21 AM	#313
carlosy Muse Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 556	Originally Posted by smartcooky Final count of Seventh Ballot McCarthy 201 Donalds 18 Jeffries 212 Present 1 Trump 1 C-SPAN stream says Donalds 19
carlosy Muse Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 556

5th January 2023, 11:22 AM	#314
sackett Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Detroit Posts: 8,304	#Crescent says "Maybe an offer in writing to ensure no government shutdowns." Yes, in writing, with signatures, published and read into the House record. And formally accepted and made public in exactly the same way by the democrats. A contract. Then let Partei Trumpf whirl itself into fragments as it violates letter and spirit of an agreement entered into for the good of the country. It would make a gargoyle grin.
	__________________ If you would learn a man's character, give him authority. If you would ruin a man's character, let him seize power.

5th January 2023, 11:22 AM	#315
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419	Originally Posted by Segnosaur 2 problems: - It still requires that the republicans act as Trustworthy individuals when they should not be trusted. Even if they reach a deal such as to retain certain committee chairs in exchange for supporting McCarthy, republicans will find some sort of loophole. "We promised the democrats to have committee chairs, but now we changed the rules and will create the position of super-chair, filled by a republican, who can overide the democrat chair". Or a deal to prevent shutdowns? "Sure we failed to raise the debt ceiling. But we are willing to vote on a bill allowing government employees to work for free. Its not our fault they said no". - It assumes that McCarthy can actually follow through. (After all, I am sure he has promised a lot of things to his own supporters, and reneging on those deals to get Democrats to support him might lead to a revolt) And why exactly would the Democrats bother trading in their integrity for supporting an individual who can't be trusted for a few committee assignments that are irrelevant? Why not just ask him for some magic beans? I think this is about the last I'll say on this specific subject for now... Why? Because not doing so will result in catastrophic consequences for all Americans... and actually every economy tied to ours, so almost everywhere. We are months away from a default being a reality so this is jumping the gun. We're on vote 7 it might be vote 700 before the Dems need to even start to think about compromising. By then HOPEFULLY the American people can start to see what a dysfunctional idiotic mess the GoP is and no matter what they will lose in '24 by a huge landslide. If not, we're just kicking the can down the road no matter what. If the voters of this country are so ******* stupid to put these reactionary moronic sycophantic buttholes in office ever again then we're headed for disaster no matter what. But you know what, I thought the same thing after Trump. The consequences of having a dysfunctional House right now mainly means no oversight of the Biden administration so... yeah I don't really care. Seriously questioning if I can afford to move out of this ridiculous country.
lobosrul5 Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 4,419

5th January 2023, 11:28 AM	#316
smartcooky Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Nelson, New Zealand Posts: 23,089	Originally Posted by carlosy C-SPAN stream says Donalds 19 Yup, it just changed for me on the Live count at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ote-tally.html
	__________________ What is Woke? It is a term that means "awakened to the needs of others". It means to be well-informed, thoughtful, compassionate, humble and kind. Woke people are keen to make the world a better, fairer place for everyone, But, unfortunately, it has also become a pejorative used by racists, homophobes and misogynists on the political right, to describe people who possess a fully functional moral compass.