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Tags 2016 elections , 2020 elections , donald trump , presidential candidates , republicans

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Old 30th June 2020, 07:19 AM   #561
varwoche
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I have no doubt we have passed peak Trump. This is a melt down that makes Charlie Sheen look like a rank amateur.

A toast. I'm tossing down some imaginary cheap vodka in memory of our departed colleague.
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Old 30th June 2020, 07:26 AM   #562
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Okay so how many times has it made it now that Trump has finally done something so bad that it will finally be the end of him? Because honestly I stopped counting before he even won the Republican primary.
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Old 30th June 2020, 07:39 AM   #563
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
I have no doubt we have passed peak Trump. This is a melt down that makes Charlie Sheen look like a rank amateur.

A toast. I'm tossing down some imaginary cheap vodka in memory of our departed colleague.
A lot of things can happen before November. I wouldn't break champagne just yet.

Though el Orango does his darndest to make sure COVID-19 ravages USA in November, making significant contribution to his possible loss. People can't forget about something that is still ongoing (there is simply no time for that) and no amount of rethuglican lies and gaslighting will change that.
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Old 30th June 2020, 07:59 AM   #564
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Okay so how many times has it made it now that Trump has finally done something so bad that it will finally be the end of him? Because honestly I stopped counting before he even won the Republican primary.
Lots!

But unlike all those times, I'm now ready to bet on it. Line up with your cash, folks. I need some spending money.
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Old 30th June 2020, 08:21 AM   #565
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Lots!

But unlike all those times, I'm now ready to bet on it. Line up with your cash, folks. I need some spending money.
I never bet against things I want to happen, creates too many conflicting feelings.

I'm just not a big fan of places we've been... many, many times.
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Old 30th June 2020, 08:41 AM   #566
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The thing that will sink Trump:

His wife having a boyfriend.

Trump (former) supporters now view him as a milquetoast cuckolded loser husband.
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Old 30th June 2020, 10:20 AM   #567
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Originally Posted by The Greater Fool View Post
The thing that will sink Trump:

His wife having a boyfriend.

Trump (former) supporters now view him as a milquetoast cuckolded loser husband.
If that becomes widely accepted as fact by people on the right, as opposed to it being dismissed as #FakeNews then you might very well be right.
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Old 30th June 2020, 10:22 AM   #568
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Lots!

But unlike all those times, I'm now ready to bet on it. Line up with your cash, folks. I need some spending money.
Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I never bet against things I want to happen, creates too many conflicting feelings.

I'm just not a big fan of places we've been... many, many times.
There's plenty of time for President Trump to engineer some good news.

There's also the prospect of GOP voter suppression on an industrial scale.
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Old 30th June 2020, 10:39 AM   #569
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Originally Posted by The Greater Fool View Post
The thing that will sink Trump:

His wife having a boyfriend.

Trump (former) supporters now view him as a milquetoast cuckolded loser husband.
No, you don't understand this at all.
If his wife has a boyfriend, that's entirely on her and she's a slut.
If he is forced to look elsewhere for sex, that's also entirely on his wife and she's still a slut.
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Old 30th June 2020, 11:39 AM   #570
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Originally Posted by The Greater Fool View Post
The thing that will sink Trump:

His wife having a boyfriend.

Trump (former) supporters now view him as a milquetoast cuckolded loser husband.
On the contrary, it will make them more sympathetic. He's just like them!
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Old 30th June 2020, 01:59 PM   #571
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Trump is now 16 percentage points underwater in FiveThirtyEight's combined net approval polls. He had worse polling a bit over two years ago, but it's still way worse than it was at the time of the 2018 elections.
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Old 30th June 2020, 03:24 PM   #572
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Originally Posted by The Greater Fool View Post
The thing that will sink Trump:

His wife having a boyfriend.

Trump (former) supporters now view him as a milquetoast cuckolded loser husband.

And let him be black. Please, please, let him be black!
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Old 30th June 2020, 07:16 PM   #573
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
And let him be black. Please, please, let him be black!
I had the same thought. But maybe Chinese would be even better.
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Old 30th June 2020, 07:47 PM   #574
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Lots!



But unlike all those times, I'm now ready to bet on it. Line up with your cash, folks. I need some spending money.
They're isn't a stunt that Trump won't pull to feed his ravenous ego. Even if this is the peak, he will go down fighting and it could get ugly.
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Old 1st July 2020, 09:47 AM   #575
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
They're isn't a stunt that Trump won't pull to feed his ravenous ego. Even if this is the peak, he will go down fighting and it could get ugly.
Yeah there's that. On the upside, it wouldn't be as fun taking a shortcut through Farmer McNasty's place if he didn't shoot trouble-making kids with a salt gun.
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Old 1st July 2020, 09:52 AM   #576
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I had the same thought. But maybe Chinese would be even better.
I'd prefer Russian, personally.

It'd be interesting to see him rationalize it as such a great thing, the best ever.
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Old 1st July 2020, 11:58 AM   #577
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Say, I don't recall the apple core popping in with one of his voluminous and thoughtful ripostes for a while now.
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Old 1st July 2020, 12:04 PM   #578
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
Say, I don't recall the apple core popping in with one of his voluminous and thoughtful ripostes for a while now.
He's been banned, actually.
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Old 1st July 2020, 12:06 PM   #579
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Originally Posted by The Greater Fool View Post
The thing that will sink Trump:

His wife having a boyfriend.

Trump (former) supporters now view him as a milquetoast cuckolded loser husband.
I hope she does. Everyone needs some love in their life. Can't go through her whole life with only the abusive, cold narcissist she's married to.
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Old 1st July 2020, 01:58 PM   #580
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
He's been banned, actually.
sic transit gloria mundi
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Old 2nd July 2020, 06:37 AM   #581
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Trailing in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina ... and Texas!
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Old 2nd July 2020, 09:20 AM   #582
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Trailing in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina ... and Texas!
Fake news!! His lead is 60 points in internal polling (Ivanka, Jared, and Dumb & Dumberer vote Trump, only Melania votes for Sleepy Joe).
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Old 2nd July 2020, 12:30 PM   #583
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And just this morning there was some news that even a stupid, idiotic, lying POS like Donald Trump can understand:

Biden actually raised several millions of dollars more than did Trump in the last quarter.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 12:54 PM   #584
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
And just this morning there was some news that even a stupid, idiotic, lying POS like Donald Trump can understand:

Biden actually raised several millions of dollars more than did Trump in the last quarter.
Dollars, sure, but how many billions of rubles did he get?
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Old 2nd July 2020, 07:04 PM   #585
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
And just this morning there was some news that even a stupid, idiotic, lying POS like Donald Trump can understand:

Biden actually raised several millions of dollars more than did Trump in the last quarter.
True. But Trump still has a lot more in total as he's been campaigning since inauguration day.
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Old 2nd July 2020, 08:36 PM   #586
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
True. But Trump still has a lot more in total as he's been campaigning since inauguration day.
That's assuming Trump has actually kept the money, and not stolen it for other uses.

I would love to find out that Trump has been stealing from the RNC re-election funds to support his buisnesses, only to find that his companies ended up losing it all anways.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 05:27 AM   #587
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I heard a great quote on CNN this morning. A reporter was talking to 2016 Trump voters in a retirement community in Florida who planned to vote for Biden. Trump's attack on Biden for dementia fell pretty flat on these people. If you need to win Florida, don't attack someone for being old. Seems obvious but Trump and his Trumptrash aren't smart enough to get it.
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Old 3rd July 2020, 05:31 AM   #588
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I heard a great quote on CNN this morning. A reporter was talking to 2016 Trump voters in a retirement community in Florida who planned to vote for Biden. Trump's attack on Biden for dementia fell pretty flat on these people. If you need to win Florida, don't attack someone for being old. Seems obvious but Trump and his Trumptrash aren't smart enough to get it.
I mentioned that in the Biden thread.

Polling shows that Trump has actually lost a significant amount of the senior vote. A demographic that was once reliably republican is now shifting to Biden.

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Old 5th July 2020, 07:00 AM   #589
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Yes this is a gut feeling. No I am not certain of this. No I (obviously, by definition pretty much) can't show any data that support or proves it.

I still think the polls are wrong. Why?

Because I think Trump supporters like lying to Pollsters. It fits in with their core childish, trolling, anything to tweak the Libs base mentality.

Making it look like Trump is going to lose and then him winning again would break the Left in America so bad it would never recover and that's why I bet that's the outcome they are hoping for the most.

I've long argued that Trump fulfilled every campaign promise he seriously actually made 5 minutes after the news networks called the race for him on election night and Fox News ran the first footage of a librul college girl with tumblr hair and "Gender is Fluid" t-shirt ugly crying over Hillary losing that they could find to put on air.

The Trumpers got everything they wanted out of Trump that moment. And a second round of "Ohhhhh you're gonna win... LOL NO YOU'RE NOT" would be like having your first orgasm for the second time for them.
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Old 5th July 2020, 08:15 AM   #590
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yes this is a gut feeling. No I am not certain of this. No I (obviously, by definition pretty much) can't show any data that support or proves it.

I still think the polls are wrong. Why?

Because I think Trump supporters like lying to Pollsters. It fits in with their core childish, trolling, anything to tweak the Libs base mentality.
I read an article last week about this very thing:

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-ho...king-the-polls

The summary:

Quote:
First, it is highly unlikely there is a mass sabotage of national polls by Trump voters. Millions of Trump fans would have to be prepared at a moment's notice to take a polling call and answer most questions honestly and a couple of questions wrong.

Second, bad polling is probably the result of bad sampling, such as Siena College not getting a truly random sample of independents.

Third, there are probably some "shy" Trump voters who are inflating the undecided numbers a bit.

Overall, the national polls may well be underestimating Trump's support - but not enough to make up for his widening deficit with Biden. Trump needs to stop complaining about the polls and start fixing his presidency if wants to win in November.
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Old 5th July 2020, 02:02 PM   #591
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And just because some people who answered the polls think the country is "headed in the wrong direction" or even disapprove of Trump's handling of recent crises doesn't mean they won't vote for him when push comes to shove.
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Old 6th July 2020, 08:36 AM   #592
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yes this is a gut feeling. No I am not certain of this. No I (obviously, by definition pretty much) can't show any data that support or proves it.

I still think the polls are wrong. Why?

Because I think Trump supporters like lying to Pollsters. It fits in with their core childish, trolling, anything to tweak the Libs base mentality.
It is certainly possible that some Trump supporters would lie because they like Trolling pollsters. (Its also possible that some may lie because they are embarrassed to tell anyone they like Trump.)

But, I figure at most that might affect the results by a percent or 2. If Biden is leading by double digits it won't really change a potential win to a loss.

Remember, many of the same factors were in play in 2016... We knew Trump was a racist conman who liked to 'grab em by the pussy'. Trump's supporters were fine with that. Yet opinion polls ended up actually being pretty accurate at the end (off by only a couple of percentage points in the popular vote). They had similar reasons to lie in 2016, but it didn't really change how accurate the polls ended up being.
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Old 6th July 2020, 08:42 AM   #593
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Remember, many of the same factors were in play in 2016... We knew Trump was a racist conman who liked to 'grab em by the pussy'. Trump's supporters were fine with that. Yet opinion polls ended up actually being pretty accurate at the end (off by only a couple of percentage points in the popular vote). They had similar reasons to lie in 2016, but it didn't really change how accurate the polls ended up being.
Yeah and we lost 2016.

Again I know how polling works and that 2016 wasn't a case of polling being "wrong" per se, but the whole "We're so ahead we don't have to worry" mentality was there in 2016 despite massive efforts from the Left to retcon it and the Left is trying really, really hard to talk themselves back into it right now.
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Old 6th July 2020, 04:00 PM   #594
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I mentioned that in the Biden thread.

Polling shows that Trump has actually lost a significant amount of the senior vote. A demographic that was once reliably republican is now shifting to Biden.

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Many of the seniors interviewed took a rather dim view of Trump not giving a **** about a global pandemic that kills them horribly.
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Old 6th July 2020, 04:13 PM   #595
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I really don't understand Trump's resilience in Ohio. All the other swing states make sense. There's no reason Trump should be tied with Biden there. The trade wars hurt Ohio a lot. The coal industry tanking and it's one of the worst states for opioid deaths. Trump should have a lot of vulnerabilities there.
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Old 6th July 2020, 10:45 PM   #596
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I really don't understand Trump's resilience in Ohio. All the other swing states make sense. There's no reason Trump should be tied with Biden there. The trade wars hurt Ohio a lot. The coal industry tanking and it's one of the worst states for opioid deaths. Trump should have a lot of vulnerabilities there.
538 ha Biden up by 2.5 in Ohio. There are very few polls, though.
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Old 6th July 2020, 11:08 PM   #597
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
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I really don't understand Trump's resilience in Ohio. All the other swing states make sense. There's no reason Trump should be tied with Biden there. The trade wars hurt Ohio a lot. The coal industry tanking and it's one of the worst states for opioid deaths. Trump should have a lot of vulnerabilities there.
538 ha Biden up by 2.5 in Ohio. There are very few polls, though.
Not sure how they calculated that. They gave 4 polls since April, and none of them had Biden above 2% (and Trump was winning in one). So they must be doing some sort of adjustment.

One one hand, while biden may lead by a few percentage points, its still within the margin of error, so statisitically its a tie.

On the other hand, Trump won Ohio by 8%, so for him to go from a comfortable win to a tie is pretty significant.
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Old 6th July 2020, 11:26 PM   #598
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Not sure how they calculated that. They gave 4 polls since April, and none of them had Biden above 2% (and Trump was winning in one). So they must be doing some sort of adjustment.
Yes, it says so just under the headline.

Originally Posted by FiveThirtyEight.com
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
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Old 7th July 2020, 12:02 AM   #599
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Originally Posted by timhau View Post
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Not sure how they calculated that. They gave 4 polls since April, and none of them had Biden above 2% (and Trump was winning in one). So they must be doing some sort of adjustment.
Yes, it says so just under the headline.

An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
If the best poll has Biden winning by 1-2%, but they have the 'average' at 2.5%, then they are doing more than just adjusting it based on quality or sample size. Even if they give more weight to the polls that show biden at 2%, that is still below the 2.5% average.

I know they do other adjustments... I'm just not sure which ones were done here.
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Old 7th July 2020, 12:43 AM   #600
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I assume they also adjust for pollster bias (as evidenced by their national polls) . Anyway, it was what, two polls from June, none from July or even late June? I'd say we have very little info to go on with Ohio.
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