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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , joe biden

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Old 21st September 2020, 07:47 PM   #521
The Great Zaganza
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Trump is just seeking approval from his new Daddy.
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Old 21st September 2020, 08:13 PM   #522
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
That might only work if you somehow make the lack of a pet sound "unamerican".

"Saint Ronald Reagan had a pet. Why doesn't Donald?"
The first thing that comes to mind is that Trump won't get any normal pet.
He will order a team of four American Clydesdales from a breeder in a swing state, name them after Mt Rushmore presidents, and make a daily stagecoach parade of them.
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Old 21st September 2020, 08:27 PM   #523
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
The first thing that comes to mind is that Trump won't get any normal pet.
Trump had a cat once, but the cat said it found that level of self-absorbed narcissism to be unfathomable.

eta: Trump also had a hamster, but it outwitted him constantly so he resented it.
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Old 21st September 2020, 09:21 PM   #524
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So another court loss for Stubby McBonespurs...

From: Voice of America
A federal judge in Nevada has dismissed a lawsuit by President Donald Trump's reelection campaign that sought to block the state from sending mail-in ballots to every registered voter there...The order is the latest in a string of wins for Democrats in battleground states, including in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where courts this month ruled that mailed ballots that arrive within certain time periods after Nov. 3's Election Day must still be counted.

According to the judge..."Plaintiffs never describe how their member voters will be harmed by vote dilution where other voters will not...Not only have plaintiffs failed to allege a substantial risk of voter fraud, the State of Nevada has its own mechanisms for deterring and prosecuting voter fraud"

I don't think Nevada was expected to be competitive (there isn't much polling data, but what is there I think show's biden in the lead.) Still its always nice to see Trump lose in court, and the other court victories in Mich. and Penn. will be much more valuable for the Democrats. (And if Trump lost 3 times already, there's a chance that he will lose whatever other cases he has outstanding.)
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Old 21st September 2020, 10:31 PM   #525
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Trump had a cat once, but the cat said it found that level of self-absorbed narcissism to be unfathomable.

eta: Trump also had a hamster, but it outwitted him constantly so he resented it.
Trump also had a dog, but the dog complained there was no way he could compete with the level of slobbering and grovelling by Lynsey Graham.
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Old 21st September 2020, 10:59 PM   #526
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Trump had a cat once, but the cat said it found that level of self-absorbed narcissism to be unfathomable.

eta: Trump also had a hamster, but it outwitted him constantly so he resented it.
Trump had a goldfish that outwitted him.
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Old 21st September 2020, 11:01 PM   #527
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
So another court loss for Stubby McBonespurs...

From: Voice of America
A federal judge in Nevada has dismissed a lawsuit by President Donald Trump's reelection campaign that sought to block the state from sending mail-in ballots to every registered voter there...The order is the latest in a string of wins for Democrats in battleground states, including in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where courts this month ruled that mailed ballots that arrive within certain time periods after Nov. 3's Election Day must still be counted.

According to the judge..."Plaintiffs never describe how their member voters will be harmed by vote dilution where other voters will not...Not only have plaintiffs failed to allege a substantial risk of voter fraud, the State of Nevada has its own mechanisms for deterring and prosecuting voter fraud"

I don't think Nevada was expected to be competitive (there isn't much polling data, but what is there I think show's biden in the lead.) Still its always nice to see Trump lose in court, and the other court victories in Mich. and Penn. will be much more valuable for the Democrats. (And if Trump lost 3 times already, there's a chance that he will lose whatever other cases he has outstanding.)
Trump will claim it was a win.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 04:53 AM   #528
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Comparing the 538 model from 2016 with this year's shows quite a difference.

In probability to win:
538_prob.jpg

In popular vote:
538_vote.jpg

Can Trump still win? Sure, no serious analyst or observer doubts it.
Still, it looks far better NOW for Biden than it looked for Clinton at the same point in the campaign (of course, we were now in the phase after Clinton died on 9/11).
Less volatility this year, until now, that's for sure.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 06:48 AM   #529
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Trump will claim it was a win.
Nah, he'll appeal if possible - although it'll generally go nowhere, due to the simple fact that their lawsuits were never based on reality, and judges tend to shy away from these matters. Even the rulings to permit people on the ballot have gone with the electors - mostly because they were caused by the sheer stupidity of the Greens in a few cases, and Kanye West in a few others. The Penn one granting a mailing deadline extension is the only one I've seen actually pass - and it was mostly because ballots are late going out.

My fave is Wisconsin - West's signatures showed up late, and the Green VP switched home addresses between filings, the state board said "No problem, just fill out this form explaining it and have someone sign it.", and the Green Partry completely ignored the form and went whining to the courts after it was too late, what a bunch of dopes.

Point is, like many court rulings, Dolt 45 is to dumb to even bother giving courts, or even his own DoJ, any sort of fig leaf to cover their obvious unconstitutionality. It took months for them to come up with even that much for their now-unimportant Muslim ban, and as I recall, they've made no effort to figure out "what the hell is going on". I mean, aside from, "we hate sand negroes", so to speak.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 11:45 AM   #530
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Originally Posted by Solitaire View Post
I guess I’ll take the glass half full and say,
“Not all republicans are completely crazy.”
That's a very small half you have there.

Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
There's some wacky ultra-left CT in Qanon. Why do you think Julian Assange is coming to America to tell the truth about Hillary before Congress?
Assange ain't no lefty. And I hope the US court system throws the book at him, after he left Chelsea Manning out to dry.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 12:25 PM   #531
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Comparing the 538 model from 2016 with this year's shows quite a difference.

In probability to win:
Attachment 43108

In popular vote:
Attachment 43109

Can Trump still win? Sure, no serious analyst or observer doubts it.
Still, it looks far better NOW for Biden than it looked for Clinton at the same point in the campaign (of course, we were now in the phase after Clinton died on 9/11).
Less volatility this year, until now, that's for sure.
As I've said before Trump's amazing level of consistency in the face of... *motions at everything* is going to be on the Polysci autopsy table for a long, long time.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 01:40 PM   #532
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NRA tweets
@NRA
If Joe Biden wins Mike Bloomberg wins and Beto O'Rourke will be knocking on your door for your AR-15.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 01:46 PM   #533
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
NRA tweets
@NRA
If Joe Biden wins Mike Bloomberg wins and Beto O'Rourke will be knocking on your door for your AR-15.
They probably think Beto is Hispanic.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 01:54 PM   #534
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
NRA tweets
@NRA
If Joe Biden wins Mike Bloomberg wins and Beto O'Rourke will be knocking on your door for your AR-15.
Someone tell him that Bloomberg is exactly like he is, only successful and competent.

(For reference, Bloomberg is one of few people I dislike even more than Dolt 45)
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Old 22nd September 2020, 01:54 PM   #535
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
As I've said before Trump's amazing level of consistency in the face of... *motions at everything* is going to be on the Polysci autopsy table for a long, long time.
It's no great secret.

Pompey summarized it best, "cease quoting laws to those of us with swords."

At the end of the day, a person can do whatever they can't (or won't) be stopped from doing. Institutions and traditional restraint don't actually stop tyrants. Individuals and agencies can be co-opted or coerced as needed.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 02:13 PM   #536
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"Total spent on TV ads by Amy McGrath (D) in #KYSEN so far this year, per @Ad_Analytics: $25.9 million

Total spent on TV ads by Dems/others educating PA voters how to successfully envelop and cast a mail ballot: ??"

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...138883587?s=19

Given how crucial Pennsylvania could be, Wasserman has a point.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 02:17 PM   #537
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
Worth note: He doesn't actually like Putin, Kim, etc. He does, however, admire them. ...
I dunno, he gets visibly giddy in their presence.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 02:33 PM   #538
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Mayor Bloomberg is putting up $16 million to pay off the fines of 32,000 Florida felons who can't vote because of outstanding debts.
https://www.salon.com/2020/09/22/blo...eport_partner/
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Old 22nd September 2020, 03:39 PM   #539
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Mayor Bloomberg is putting up $16 million to pay off the fines of 32,000 Florida felons who can't vote because of outstanding debts.
https://www.salon.com/2020/09/22/blo...eport_partner/
Now, that's putting his money to good use. I hope he makes sure they vote.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 04:17 PM   #540
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Mayor Bloomberg is putting up $16 million to pay off the fines of 32,000 Florida felons who can't vote because of outstanding debts.
https://www.salon.com/2020/09/22/blo...eport_partner/
I was hoping someone would do that.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 04:17 PM   #541
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Now, that's putting his money to good use. I hope he makes sure they vote.
Let's hope it works. One problem appears to be that there is no standard place felons can go or procedure they can follow to find out even whether they owe money, let alone how much and pay up. But if they vote while they owe money it's a felony. So they're afraid to vote, even if they can. All the Florida authorities have to do is not tell people what they owe, or promise to give a full accounting by, say, Dec. 1, to keep them locked out.

Last edited by Bob001; 22nd September 2020 at 04:22 PM.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 05:30 PM   #542
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Let's hope it works. One problem appears to be that there is no standard place felons can go or procedure they can follow to find out even whether they owe money, let alone how much and pay up. But if they vote while they owe money it's a felony. So they're afraid to vote, even if they can. All the Florida authorities have to do is not tell people what they owe, or promise to give a full accounting by, say, Dec. 1, to keep them locked out.
I think you mean Nov. 1?
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Old 22nd September 2020, 05:45 PM   #543
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I think you mean Nov. 1?
No, I meant Dec. 1. After the election. Too late to vote. The state government is run by Republicans. They don't want to help anybody except Trumpers vote. They could pretend to comply with any orders or requirements, but just not in time to make a difference. Nov. 4 would work just as well.

Last edited by Bob001; 22nd September 2020 at 05:49 PM.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 05:48 PM   #544
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
No, I meant Dec. 1. After the election. Too late to vote. The state government is run by Republicans. They don't want to help anybody except Trumpers vote. They could pretend to comply with any orders or requirements, but just not in time to make a difference. Nov. 4 would work just as well.
Ah...I see what you mean.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 05:49 PM   #545
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
And in truth, much of the screaming about this election, so-called "silent" voters, and the like, are based on the false assertion that "the polls all got it wrong!", which they generally didn't. I'll agree that certain people calling probabilities used crap models - this happens fairly often even when discussing nonthinking designs. It becomes more difficult when discussing people, particularly when one is trying to account for errors that pollsters make, rather than just random people changing their mind for whatever reason.

Recently there are polls which take significant points off of Trumps white suburban voters but also that Trump had gained black and hispanic votes vs his performance in 2016.

um....what????

Isn't it a weird phenomena that white voters would be swayed by messages of racial injustice but the groups affected most moved the other way?
If it was Cubans, maybe I'd see why...but it seems consistent in all the swing states where they poll.

I think this means the whites are lying and the blacks are telling the truth. The minority movement in the polls will be the true indicator of the winner.
Maybe it is a summer long fluke? Time will tell I suppose.

(Go read Politico's recent version of why minorities are moving to Trump. See if you agree with the opinions they give as to the behavior of those groups vs the morally aware whites that are deemed to be hearing the right messaging)

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Old 23rd September 2020, 03:31 AM   #546
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In apparent play for QAnon supporters, GOP attack ads claim Democrat lawmakers are defending 'sex offenders'

Quote:
The ad couldn’t sound more ominous. As darkened images of quiet suburban neighborhoods roll on the screen, a woman’s voice delivers a scary message: “On every street, in every neighborhood, around every corner, sex offenders are living among us.”

And then comes the kicker: U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski, a freshman Democrat from New Jersey in a swing district, “tried to make it easier for predators to hide in the shadows,” the woman continues. “Malinowski worked as the top lobbyist for a radical group that opposed the National Sex Offender Registry.”

There is no evidence that Malinowski, had ever done anything to protect sexual predators or lobbied against the sex offender registry.
https://news.yahoo.com/in-apparent-p...221037264.html
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Old 23rd September 2020, 05:29 AM   #547
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Recently there are polls which take significant points off of Trumps white suburban voters but also that Trump had gained black and hispanic votes vs his performance in 2016.

um....what????

Isn't it a weird phenomena that white voters would be swayed by messages of racial injustice but the groups affected most moved the other way?
If it was Cubans, maybe I'd see why...but it seems consistent in all the swing states where they poll.

I think this means the whites are lying and the blacks are telling the truth. The minority movement in the polls will be the true indicator of the winner.
Maybe it is a summer long fluke? Time will tell I suppose.

(Go read Politico's recent version of why minorities are moving to Trump. See if you agree with the opinions they give as to the behavior of those groups vs the morally aware whites that are deemed to be hearing the right messaging)
A link to any such article would help.

My assertion is that groups tell the truth (and lie) is similar percentages of the population. I've seen no reliable polling that notes a major change in the black electorate. The Latino change is mostly due to general disinterest in both parties for a group that tends to not vote, along with Cuban and Venezualan refugees who like Dolt 45's (ultimately fruitless) chest-thumping towards their respective home countries.

(For reference, I'm not saying I wouldn't react the same way to the increasing cries for "democratic socialism" among dems had I seen Castro or Maduro sweep into power - although I'd argue that neither Sanders nor many other democrats are actual socialists, and thatthey're using the term in a remarkably sloppy manner)

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
In apparent play for QAnon supporters, GOP attack ads claim Democrat lawmakers are defending 'sex offenders'
Hilarious, given who they've consistently voted for (Dolt 45, Gym Jordan, Roy Moore, etc.)
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Old 23rd September 2020, 06:25 AM   #548
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
In apparent play for QAnon supporters, GOP attack ads claim Democrat lawmakers are defending 'sex offenders'
It also perpetuates the impression people have of sex offenders as these prowling predators who, as the ad says, hide in the shadows rather like a cat waiting for a passing rodent. Most sexual assaults are perpetrated by people who knew the victim and were close enough to them -- coaches, parents, siblings, uncles, teachers, ministers, et cetera. Sometimes it's an outright assault, sometimes they are groomed over time.

I don't deny that children can also be kidnapped or assaulted outdoors, but it's much more rare than a lot of people think, and you prevent, and discover, a whole lot more abuse by telling kids about boundaries and that they can tell adults if it happens to them, and by remembering that no matter how nice and friendly a person seems, they can still be predators.

Pleased to see the video has a 2:1 negative rating on YouTube, by the way.
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Old 23rd September 2020, 06:38 AM   #549
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
It also perpetuates the impression people have of sex offenders as these prowling predators who, as the ad says, hide in the shadows rather like a cat waiting for a passing rodent. Most sexual assaults are perpetrated by people who knew the victim and were close enough to them -- coaches, parents, siblings, uncles, teachers, ministers, et cetera. Sometimes it's an outright assault, sometimes they are groomed over time.

These are likely people who grew up or raised children in the era of "Stranger Danger" and never got the update that it was largely a paranoid myth.
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Old 23rd September 2020, 08:44 AM   #550
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Trump Retweeted

Molly Nagle
@MollyNagle3
New polls of Arizona and Florida show an oh-so-close race in the states between @realDonaldTrump and @JoeBiden

Arizona
Trump: 49%
Biden: 48%

Florida
Trump: 51%
Biden: 47%
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Old 23rd September 2020, 09:20 AM   #551
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Trump's plan to challenge the 2020 election results if he loses, in one tweet
Quote Tweet

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Nov 12, 2018
The Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!
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Old 23rd September 2020, 09:29 AM   #552
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
A link to any such article would help.

My assertion is that groups tell the truth (and lie) is similar percentages of the population. I've seen no reliable polling that notes a major change in the black electorate. The Latino change is mostly due to general disinterest in both parties for a group that tends to not vote, along with Cuban and Venezualan refugees who like Dolt 45's (ultimately fruitless) chest-thumping towards their respective home countries.
Apologies. I meant to insert it inside the word Politico.

I think the article throws too many pieces of undercooked spaghetti at the fridge but here it is!

Quote:
Part of the urgency comes from the mixed picture emerging in public polling. A recent Monmouth University poll found Biden at 67 percent support among Black, Latino and Asian voters — far ahead of Trump but below the usual Democratic consolidation of voters of color. Hillary Clinton won the same demographics, 74-21 percent, in 2016.

There’s a “notable swath of voters who are holding back from Biden,” Belcher said. Last week, the pollster shared data with members of Congress that demonstrated Biden’s relative vulnerability among Black men, particularly younger ones. (Belcher did not discuss specifics of the data with POLITICO.)

Last edited by Sherkeu; 23rd September 2020 at 09:35 AM.
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Old 23rd September 2020, 02:53 PM   #553
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump's plan to challenge the 2020 election results if he loses, in one tweet
Quote Tweet

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Nov 12, 2018
The Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!
Took me a minute to see he was talking about 2018.

But it's still confusing, is he saying ahead of time FL should be called in his favor?
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Old 23rd September 2020, 03:08 PM   #554
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Florida seeks investigation on Bloomberg donation on voting

This discussion began in another related thread. Gaetz wrote an op ed in the NYPost then referred to himself in a Tweet.

Gaetz said the AG was looking into Bloomberg because FL law prevents paying people to vote. Obviously this is several steps removed and Gaetz did not cite the law he was referring to.

From my link:
Quote:
Florida's attorney general asked state and federal law enforcement on Wednesday to investigate possible election law violations after billionaire and former Democratic presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg helped raise more than $16 million for Florida felons to pay their debts so they can vote in the presidential election.

Attorney General Ashley Moody sent letters to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement and the FBI saying that further investigation is warranted.
But this is odd isn't it? Wouldn't the AG simply bring the case herself?

Then it looks like this precipitated it:
Quote:
Gov. Ron DeSantis had asked Moody to review allegations that Bloomberg and the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition had violated the law by offering incentives for voting. DeSantis and Moody are both Republicans.
So did Moody pass the ball DeSantis gave her?

It's not usually up to the police agencies (including the FBI) to interpret if an action breaks the law, the police merely present the case they think it does to the DA (prosecutor).

What does the AG expect the FBI and/or state police to find?

This makes more sense of things:
Quote:
“I have instructed the Statewide Prosecutor to work with law enforcement and any Statewide Grand Jury that the Governor may call," Moody said in a written statement.
Did the governor bring the case to the wrong agency, the AG instead of the state prosecutor?


Finally:
Quote:
The money Bloomberg raised is targeted for felons who registered to vote while the law was in question and who owe $1,500 or less. That accounts for about 31,100 people, his staffers said. In a state that decided the 2000 presidential election by 537 votes,
So these people already registered to vote, thus no money to motivate them, rather money to clear the way.


Gaetz and DeSantis certainly belong in that deplorables basket.
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Old 23rd September 2020, 03:32 PM   #555
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Yet more evidence that Republicans don't care about democracy and are looking to keep power even if they lose the election.

Quote:
The report delves into possible scenarios if Trump apparently loses the 2020 presidential election but doesn't concede, noting that although we're used to electors being selected based on the popular vote, "nothing in the Constitution says it has to be that way." Citing Republican Party sources, The Atlantic says that Trump's campaign is "discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority."

"Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly," The Atlantic reports. "The longer Trump succeeds in keeping the vote count in doubt, the more pressure legislators will feel to act before the safe-harbor deadline expires."
https://theweek.com/speedreads/93933...ve-coronavirus
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Old 23rd September 2020, 04:51 PM   #556
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
Yet more evidence that Republicans don't care about democracy and are looking to keep power even if they lose the election.



https://theweek.com/speedreads/93933...ve-coronavirus
Link doesn't seem to go there, it's a corona virus story, followed by Breonna Taylor news
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Old 23rd September 2020, 06:53 PM   #557
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Link doesn't seem to go there, it's a corona virus story, followed by Breonna Taylor news
Sorry about that. It seems that website has various pieces of news all on the same page and as you scroll down the link at the top changes to whatever story its on. I've never noticed a site do that before.

I can't edit the post anymore but here is the correct link.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/93919...ection-results
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Old 23rd September 2020, 09:58 PM   #558
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
... So these people already registered to vote, thus no money to motivate them, rather money to clear the way. Gaetz and DeSantis certainly belong in that deplorables basket.
Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
I can't edit the post anymore but here is the correct link.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/93919...ection-results
Well, the cards certainly are on the table. This is along with Trump's call to patrol polling places and sign up to dispute mail-in ballots for Biden.

Any remaining Trump supporter should, had they grey matter, also support the removal of that hideous WWII Memorial on the Mall, celebrating the criminals who opposed a good White man, and plow under most of Arlington Cemetery, and topple the Iwo Jima monument. I mean, WTF?

Journalists had better set up cameras around their homes broadcasting 24/7 on the internet, or the world will not witness what is about to happen come November, if that late.
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Old 24th September 2020, 06:58 AM   #559
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Regarding a peaceful transition he said...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...there-n1240896

Quote:
Well, we're going to have to see what happens," Trump said. "You know that I've been complaining very strongly about the ballots, and the ballots are a disaster."

Pressed further, Trump said: "We'll want to have get rid of the ballots and you'll have a very we'll have a very peaceful there won't be a transfer, frankly. There'll be a continuation."

"I think this will end up in the Supreme Court, and I think it's very important that we have nine justices, and I think the system's going to go very quickly," Trump said at the White House, adding that "having a 4-4 situation is not a good situation."
If he loses he will ask Republican governed states to ignore the vote and choose electors who will instead vote for him. Or he will have the Supreme Court declare him the winner. Or as a last resort he'll have the DOJ declare the election invalid due to fraud and his SS made up of ICE, border patrol, and right wing militia nutjobs will be out in force to put down resistance.

Exactly which method they go with and whether it works, I can't say but Trump will not cede power peacefully
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Old 24th September 2020, 07:15 AM   #560
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
Regarding a peaceful transition he said...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...there-n1240896



If he loses he will ask Republican governed states to ignore the vote and choose electors who will instead vote for him. Or he will have the Supreme Court declare him the winner. Or as a last resort he'll have the DOJ declare the election invalid due to fraud and his SS made up of ICE, border patrol, and right wing militia nutjobs will be out in force to put down resistance.

Exactly which method they go with and whether it works, I can't say but Trump will not cede power peacefully

Don't forget that Barr has already been urging federal prosecutors to charge any demonstrators after his reelection with attempting to overthrow the government.
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