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Old 5th March 2018, 08:09 AM   #241
Belz...
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Zoo,
- Sure. Jay has probably given hundreds of specifics just in Chapter VIII. But he refuses to be specific about the specific he's referring back to.
He's tired of spoon-feeding you. If you had bothered to read the specifics he gave before and address them, say, to the exclusion of anyone else, you wouldn't have lost the benefit of the doubt. I mean, how often do you expect everyone to do your job for you?

Here's a piece of advice: next time you feel like rummaging through the thread looking back for stuff to post a gotcha around, don't. Instead, find the one post we all want you to address, the one with the fatal flaws, and do what Jay has been asking you to do for months. Literally any other action is a waste of time.
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Old 5th March 2018, 08:12 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
CT,
- I've emailed 2 different SUNY Professors. It's probably been a week since the last email and two since the first. I probably said too much about what I wanted to do...
What makes you think telling them all this in person would change?

Quote:
- I still believe that Bayesian inference virtually proves that OOFLam is wrong.
Only when you plug in made-up numbers that you can't justify into it.
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Old 5th March 2018, 08:12 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
He's tired of spoon-feeding you.
Spoon feed him hell. He wants us to regurgitate it down his throat baby bird style.

I've been in a lot of Woo arguments where literally every argument made gets misrepresented but this is the first time I've ever been in an argument where the other side keeps trying to outsource misrepresenting my own arguments back to me because they are just too lazy to do it themselves.
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Old 5th March 2018, 08:15 AM   #244
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Originally Posted by jond View Post
For your current existence under ~H, you must now multiply .01 (or .001) x P(B) because you still have to account for the fact that your brain exists, whether or not you have a soul. You have again now agreed that P(H) = P(B).
jond,
- No. Yours is still the Conjunction Fallacy-Fallacy. IOW, I'm not making a Conjunction Fallacy. In my formula, the brain is a given, and it's Probability is 1. So, if I multiplied the brain's probability [P(B)] times the prior probability of .01, I still get .01.
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Old 5th March 2018, 08:26 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Zoo,
- Sure. Jay has probably given hundreds of specifics just in Chapter VIII.
Ah good, you agree that it's simply your overt dishonesty that is a barrier to communication.

Quote:
But he refuses to be specific about the specific he's referring back to.
This is an outright lie, as you well know.
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Old 5th March 2018, 08:29 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
In my formula, the brain is a given, and it's Probability is 1.
So under H the likelihood of your existence is 1. Thanks for defeating your entire argument.
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Old 5th March 2018, 08:29 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
In my formula, the brain is a given, and it's Probability is 1.
Ah, another one of your "estimates." How do you calculate that the existence of your specific brain, among all the possible brains that could have existed, is a certainty under your ill-defined hypothesis, when you've equally arbitrarily decided it has a probability of 10-100 in the hypothesis you want to pretend yours is the complement to?

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Old 5th March 2018, 08:31 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
I probably said too much about what I wanted to do...
A pity you aren't at the "lying to them" stage then.

Quote:
- I still believe that Bayesian inference virtually proves that OOFLam is wrong.
Beliefs aren't evidence of anything. It's been shown objectively that you are incorrect and your arguments are riddled with fatal flaws.

Belief doesn't overcome that.
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Old 5th March 2018, 08:36 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Mojo,
- I'll need to re-think that. As a quick rethink, I halfway believe in reincarnation and if there is such a thing, I suspect that we do learn, and carry our learnings with us, as we progress through lifetimes...
- Though, I don't put a whole lot of stock in any particular explanation for the unlikelihood of my current existence -- I just think that -- scientifically speaking -- my current existence is like a total miracle.
Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
- But you have no evidence for this...
Mojo,
- I have a little evidence.
- What percentage would you give the prior probability of reincarnation?

-If you give it any probability at all, the posterior probability of ~OOFLam -- given my current existence and the prior probability of reincarnation -- is still greater than the posterior probability of OOFLam --
given my current existence and the prior probability of OOFLam.
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Old 5th March 2018, 08:44 AM   #250
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
-If you give it any probability at all, the posterior probability of ~OOFLam -- given my current existence and the prior probability of reincarnation -- is still greater than the posterior probability of OOFLam --
given my current existence and the prior probability of OOFLam.
This is yet another mathematical impossibility. Your claim rests on the existence of a number so small that, even when multiplied by any other number, it remains smaller than any other possible number. You've chosen to call that number "virtually zero," a nonexistent mathematical concept because its required properties are mathematically impossible.

Let me give you an example.

Suppose you calculate that a specific event A, known to have happened, has a 1/10100 probability of happening in conjunction with event B, and a probability of 1 of happening without B. Your argument is therefore that A is so improbable in conjunction with B that B must be impossible. However, this is mathematical nonsense; if the a priori odds of event B not happening are 1/10100000000, you may be very confident that event B has in fact occurred.

In effect, you're saying that, if you got the winning lottery ticket, it's so unlikely that there can't have been a lottery. But if there hadn't been a lottery, you couldn't have bought the ticket.

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Old 5th March 2018, 08:57 AM   #251
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Mojo,
- I have a little evidence.
Zero is not "little". It's nothing.

Quote:
-If you give it any probability at all, the posterior probability of ~OOFLam -- given my current existence and the prior probability of reincarnation -- is still greater than the posterior probability of OOFLam --
given my current existence and the prior probability of OOFLam.
No. You're entirely wrong.
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Old 5th March 2018, 09:01 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Zero is not "little". It's nothing.
I think he's saying he has "virtually zero" evidence. It's not the same as actual zero, except when he wants it to be.

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Old 5th March 2018, 09:11 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
I have a little evidence.
No, you have a bunch of dishonestly pursued pseudoscience. You presented your so-called evidence. I examined it in depth. For each item in the bibliography of the organization you sent us to, I identified the fatal scientific flaw their studies had made. I further illustrated their arrogant rebuffs of the rest of the relevant scientific community who found the same flaws.

Not surprisingly, you went on your merry way pretending none of that happened. Given your disinterest in rehabilitating your case, I'd say that at this point you have no evidence.

Quote:
What percentage would you give the prior probability of reincarnation?
Not your critics' job. If you're going to pursue this form of argument, you need to give us P(reincarnation) as a finite number, and explain to us where that number came from. Since your description of how reincarnation is supposed to work varies several times a day, it's probably fair to say that your hypothesis is entirely speculation. What is the prior probability of any proposition that is purely speculative and changes shape daily? What is the probability such a chimeric proposition could actually be real?

Quote:
If you give it any probability at all, the posterior probability of ~OOFLam -- given my current existence and the prior probability of reincarnation -- is still greater than the posterior probability of OOFLam...
Only because your math is wrong.
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Old 5th March 2018, 09:13 AM   #254
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
CT,
- I've emailed 2 different SUNY Professors. It's probably been a week since the last email and two since the first. I probably said too much about what I wanted to do...
OK, I have had occasion to mail many tenured professors, indeed, one of my closest friends is an actual tenured professor. Always, a polite inquiry generates a polite response. WTF did you send?

Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I tried to go back to one of the stat forums I had been on, but couldn't get my connection restored...
Baloney. Every site has a recover password procedure. The only way that could happen is if you were banned. Give me the site and user name and I will make an account there to appeal your banning. I don't want your password.

Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I'll try them again, and go to a different forum if that doesn't work.
No, you won't.

Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- I still believe that Bayesian inference virtually proves that OOFLam is wrong.
Whatever. Sure your imaginary OOFLAM is wrong, everyone agrees that it is wrong. But it is not materialism. It is just your strawman version of materialism.

If H is your "OOFLAM" then de facto your ~H includes materialism and your argument falls to pieces.
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Old 5th March 2018, 09:14 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
So, if I multiplied the brain's probability [P(B)] times the prior probability of .01, I still get .01.
Your priors are not independent. Your priors are conjoined on the matter of the brain. They form a conjunction. Now it's been shown to you that the weight of evidence is indiscriminate in your argument. When that happens, the posterior probabilities are merely the priors. If the priors have a conjunctive relationship in that case, the posteriors must. Several statisticians have tried to point this out to you.
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Old 5th March 2018, 09:21 AM   #256
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
OK, I have had occasion to mail many tenured professors, indeed, one of my closest friends is an actual tenured professor. Always, a polite inquiry generates a polite response. WTF did you send?
I'm guessing it included a link to this thread.

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Tony Szamboti: That is right
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Old 5th March 2018, 09:22 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
jond,
- No. Yours is still the Conjunction Fallacy-Fallacy. IOW, I'm not making a Conjunction Fallacy. In my formula, the brain is a given, and it's Probability is 1. So, if I multiplied the brain's probability [P(B)] times the prior probability of .01, I still get .01.
If the brain is a given, then the likelihood of your current existence under H is 1. The brain generates your sense of self, therefore the only sense of self it could be is the one created by the brain.
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Old 5th March 2018, 09:28 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Mojo,
- I have a little evidence.
- What percentage would you give the prior probability of reincarnation?
the prior probability is zero

You have no actual evidence, you vaguely hand waved at a loose collection of cherry picked wishful thinking.

There is zero evidence for reincarnation until you present some that can be discussed.

" I posted some earlier" is not evidence in any way.
"Somebody has a vague loose association that doepsn't rule out confounding factors" is not evidence
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Old 5th March 2018, 09:49 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by Dancing David View Post
There is zero evidence for reincarnation until you present some that can be discussed.
He did present it. It was discussed and thoroughly refuted. Jabba simply ignored all of that, probably under the standard excuse of it being more than he could keep up with. Nor was it the first time his evidence was presented, discussed, and refuted. Nor even the third time. It's the cyclical nature of this argument, owing largely to Jabba's never giving more than lip service to what anyone except he says. This is what the previous statistics forum concluded, but they were smarter than us in not letting him go in circles so many times before concluding he wasn't worth anyone's attention.
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Old 5th March 2018, 11:39 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by jond View Post
If the brain is a given, then the likelihood of your current existence under H is 1. The brain generates your sense of self, therefore the only sense of self it could be is the one created by the brain.
The likelihood of my current existence is in regard to a hypothesis, not to actuality.
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Old 5th March 2018, 11:41 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
The likelihood of my current existence is in regard to a hypothesis, not to actuality.
Jesus Christ.

"The numbers don't work in reality, but they work in the scenario I totally made up."
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Old 5th March 2018, 11:42 AM   #262
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Dollars to donuts "Too much" is he let it slip that he was trying to prove an absurdity. He probably meant to try and slide the question in under their radar by not directly referencing the Woo he is peddling but let some slip through and they are (rightfully) ignoring him because these are professionals who don't have time for that sort of nonsense.

Bingo! Probably decided trimming their fingernails or washing the car was more important.
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Old 5th March 2018, 11:58 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
He did present it. It was discussed and thoroughly refuted. Jabba simply ignored all of that, probably under the standard excuse of it being more than he could keep up with. Nor was it the first time his evidence was presented, discussed, and refuted. Nor even the third time. It's the cyclical nature of this argument, owing largely to Jabba's never giving more than lip service to what anyone except he says. This is what the previous statistics forum concluded, but they were smarter than us in not letting him go in circles so many times before concluding he wasn't worth anyone's attention.
yes, there was a vague hand wave, and I seem to remember that distant time
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Old 5th March 2018, 12:13 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
The likelihood of my current existence is in regard to a hypothesis, not to actuality.
Can't have reality rearing its ugly head to intrude into your fantasy, can you?
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Old 5th March 2018, 12:43 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Mojo,
- I have a little evidence.
- What percentage would you give the prior probability of reincarnation?

What evidence do you have for it? Is it the same load of rubbish you had before?
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Old 5th March 2018, 12:48 PM   #266
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He has no evidence. We all know that. Hell I think he knows that.

He has wild made up fantasies he hides behind calling them "claims" or "hypothesis" and a never ending list of excuses and copouts.
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Old 5th March 2018, 12:51 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
In my formula, the brain is a given, and it's Probability is 1.

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Old 5th March 2018, 01:03 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
The likelihood of my current existence is in regard to a hypothesis, not to actuality.
Hypotheses are pointless if they don't translate into reality.

Anyway you've already admitted that under OOFLAM/H/Whatever the odds of your existence are 1, so there is nothing more to discuss.
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:03 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Mojo,...
- Though, I don't put a whole lot of stock in any particular explanation for the unlikelihood of my current existence -- I just think that -- scientifically speaking -- my current existence is like a total miracle.
Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
...
...therefore you're immortal, huh?
- Yeah. If OOFLam is correct, the likelihood of my current existence is only 10-100.
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:08 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Yeah. If OOFLam is correct, the likelihood of my current existence is only 10-100.
And if you call a tail a leg a dog has five legs.

OOFLAM isn't correct. It's total made up nonsense. It's meaningless gibberish.
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:10 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
The likelihood of my current existence is in regard to a hypothesis, not to actuality.
And that hypothesis is H, and you said in H your brain is a given.
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:12 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Yeah. If OOFLam is correct, the likelihood of my current existence is only 10-100.
No, that's a number you made up. It has no meaning, "scientifically speaking."
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:13 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Yeah. If OOFLam is correct, the likelihood of my current existence is only 10-100.
No, you admitted that it is 1, right here:

Originally Posted by Jabba
Originally Posted by godless dave View Post
Do you accept that the materialist model is that the brain generates the process?
- Yes.
Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
jond,
- No. Yours is still the Conjunction Fallacy-Fallacy. IOW, I'm not making a Conjunction Fallacy. In my formula, the brain is a given, and it's Probability is 1. So, if I multiplied the brain's probability [P(B)] times the prior probability of .01, I still get .01.
So the brain generates the self under materialism, and the brain has a probability of 1. Thereofre your self has a probability of 1 under materialism. Ergo OOFLAM has a likelihood of 1, ergo your entire theory collapses. Thanks for playing.
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:15 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Mojo,
- I have a little evidence.
- What percentage would you give the prior probability of reincarnation?...
Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
What evidence do you have for it? Is it the same load of rubbish you had before?
- Yeah.
- It is the weak evidence I had before. Though, there is a lot more weak evidence out there -- you just got to look for it.
- But again, would you give the reincarnation hypothesis any prior probability at all?
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:23 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Though, there is a lot more weak evidence out there -- you just got to look for it.
"Not only is my argument weak, I'm going to ask you to go find it."
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:26 PM   #276
RoboTimbo
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
- Yeah. If OOFLam is correct, the likelihood of my current existence is only 10-100.
No, if materialism is correct, the likelihood of your current existence is 1.

Why would you think otherwise?
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:27 PM   #277
JayUtah
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
It is the weak evidence I had before.
Then going over it again is pointless. Your proposed evidence has been properly rejected, and the refutations ignored by you. Merely referring to it again does not magically rehabilitate it.

Quote:
Though, there is a lot more weak evidence out there -- you just got to look for it.
Volume is not rigor. You are the one arguing in favor of reincarnation. It is your responsibility to present evidence in favor of your argument. Do not shift responsibility.

Quote:
But again, would you give the reincarnation hypothesis any prior probability at all?
There is no "the" reincarnation hypothesis in your argument. You change your story every day -- sometimes more often -- about how you think it might work. Explain how, under those circumstances, there could be a rational basis for giving a prior probability. In any case, it is not your critics' responsibility to validate your method or to guess at numbers to populate it with. You are the one claiming that reincarnation has a non-negligible prior probability. Satisfy that claim or withdraw it.
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:28 PM   #278
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
... the reincarnation hypothesis ...
What is the "reincarnation hypothesis"?

D'oh! Beaten by one minute!
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Old 5th March 2018, 01:55 PM   #279
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
The likelihood of my current existence is in regard to a hypothesis, not to actuality.
In the materialist hypothesis, your brain and your self are one and the same. There is no other thing involved. If your brain is a given, so then is your self.
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Old 5th March 2018, 02:08 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
CT,
- I've emailed 2 different SUNY Professors. It's probably been a week since the last email and two since the first. I probably said too much about what I wanted to do...
- I tried to go back to one of the stat forums I had been on, but couldn't get my connection restored...
- I'll try them again, and go to a different forum if that doesn't work.
- I still believe that Bayesian inference virtually proves that OOFLam is wrong.

There is a Bayesian statistiian on the factulry of University of California, Irvine who has done substantial work on supernatural topics. I won't mention her by name, but it's easy enough to figure out who she is. Maybe you should email her.
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