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View Poll Results: 2020 Election Outcome
Republican Sweep: Trump, Senate, House 1 1.41%
Status Quo: Trump, R Senate, D House 5 7.04%
Congressional Switch: Trump, D Senate, R House 2 2.82%
Congressional Flip: Trump, D Senate, D House 1 1.41%
Democrat Sweep: Biden, D Senate, D House 25 35.21%
Democrat non-sweep: Biden, R Senate, D House 23 32.39%
Alternate non-sweep: Biden, D Senate, R House 0 0%
A right mess: Biden, R Senate, R House 0 0%
Constitutional Crisis: Presidency embroiled in legal nightmare 6 8.45%
Planet X: Tragic Monkey takes all the positions 8 11.27%
Voters: 71. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 27th June 2020, 10:21 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Jared already said the elections "probably" won't be postponed. They are thinking about.
No, they are not. He was vague answering a question that he's got no role in deciding to begin with. That's it, that's the entire story. There is no substance to any of it.

Like I said, paranoia can be frightening.
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Old 27th June 2020, 10:24 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
There's a legitimate reason to worry about this; it's not just random unsupported paranoia.
No there isn't legitimate reason to worry about this, and while it may not be random paranoia, it is unsupported. Your entire argument is just special pleading.
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Old 28th June 2020, 12:32 AM   #43
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I'm not worried about Trump refusing to leave office.

I'm worried about the millions in Trump's base who will invariably blame the media for "blowing things out of proportion" and destroying their savior's chances.
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Old 28th June 2020, 04:44 AM   #44
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Yeah it's paranoia until he does it, then the same Trumpers claiming we're being paranoid now will be defending him. Just like him putting people in camps. Just like him conspiring with Russia.

Probably using the same grabbag of excuses.
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Old 28th June 2020, 05:26 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
No, they are not. He was vague answering a question that he's got no role in deciding to begin with. That's it, that's the entire story. There is no substance to any of it.

Like I said, paranoia can be frightening.
Rethuglican not seeing big deal in possibility that rethuglicans gets power permanently. Who would thought.
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Old 28th June 2020, 05:52 AM   #46
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Trump's numbers in Texas and Georgia give me cause for cautious optimism. I doubt Biden will win Texas and he doesn't have to. Trump though has to win Texas and he's going to have to spend resources there.
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Old 28th June 2020, 05:54 AM   #47
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My prediction is that Trump will 'bigly' loose the 2020 election and that several of the Trump lackeys will be flushed with him, giving the Democrats control of the government.

I base my prediction on the recent news that Trump and many of his supporters aare now very pessimistic concerning the possibility of Trump actually winning the 2020 election.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...lection-342326

Trump admits it: He's losing

Donald Trump knows he's losing.

The president has privately come to that grim realization in recent days, multiple people close to him told POLITICO, amid a mountain of bad polling and warnings from some of his staunchest allies that he's on course to be a one-term president.

...

“Under the current trajectory, President Trump is on the precipice of one of the worst electoral defeats in modern presidential elections and the worst historically for an incumbent president,” said former Trump political adviser Sam Nunberg, who remains a supporter.

...
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Old 28th June 2020, 05:57 AM   #48
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Yeah we've done the whole "Oh man Trump's just totally losing it behind teh scenes! In private he's completely breaking down!" thing before. Like everything else we can manage to get to stick to Trump it never sticks for long.
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Old 28th June 2020, 06:02 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Trump's numbers in Texas and Georgia give me cause for cautious optimism. I doubt Biden will win Texas and he doesn't have to. Trump though has to win Texas and he's going to have to spend resources there.
The fact that going by polls (and good polls from multiple poll takers) Texas is right now more competitive than Florida and Iowa and Ohio and all the other traditional big swing states is certainly an eyebrow raising.

In the end when people fish or cut bait I don't seen Biden winning Texas, but the pure symbolism of it having to be a fight does count for something. If Texas winds up being 2020's Florida, a nailbiter race with recounts and moments where it looks like both sides have won or could win, that's gonna be a cultural shift even if Trump still takes it.

I agree that the Republicans having to divert time, money, and just general "oh crap we have at least pay attention to this" resources to Texas while the Dems can still sit and coast in California and New York could be a major factor.
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Old 28th June 2020, 06:17 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
No there isn't legitimate reason to worry about this, and while it may not be random paranoia, it is unsupported. Your entire argument is just special pleading.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/18/polit...mit/index.html

"The good news is that at the end of 6 years, after America has been made GREAT again and I leave the beautiful White House (do you think the people would demand that I stay longer? KEEP AMERICA GREAT)"

"He's now president for life. President for life. No, he's great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it's great. Maybe we'll have to give that a shot someday."

"we've cut more regulations in a year and a quarter than any administration whether it's four years, eight years, or in one case 16 years," Trump said. "Should we go back to 16 years? Should we do that? Congressman, can we do that?"

"You know the last time I jokingly said that the papers start saying, 'He's got despotic tendencies,'" said Trump. "No, I'm not looking to do it. Unless you want to do it, that's OK."

"Well, this is really beautiful," he said. "This will find a permanent place, at least for six years, in the Oval Office. Is that okay? ... I was going to joke, 'General, and say at least for 10 or 14 years, but we would cause bedlam if I said that, so we'll say six.'"



Can you show me even one quote from a former President that even approaches any one of Trump's multiple examples of openly speculating about staying in office past a second term? Sure, he's "joking", but even joking about this is unprecedented.

So, not "unsupported". It's literally supported by Trump's own words.
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Old 28th June 2020, 06:23 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yeah we've done the whole "Oh man Trump's just totally losing it behind teh scenes! In private he's completely breaking down!" thing before. Like everything else we can manage to get to stick to Trump it never sticks for long.
Remember “the walls are closing in on him”?
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

Good times, good times.
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Old 28th June 2020, 06:27 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Can you show me even one quote from a former President that even approaches any one of Trump's multiple examples of openly speculating about staying in office past a second term? Sure, he's "joking", but even joking about this is unprecedented.

So, not "unsupported". It's literally supported by Trump's own words.
Trump joked about getting elected for a third term, not about cancelling elections, which is what we are talking about here. And did you forget that a Democrat actually ran for and won a third term?

Historical ignorance is a sight to behold.
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
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Old 28th June 2020, 06:38 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Trump joked about getting elected for a third term, not about cancelling elections, which is what we are talking about here. And did you forget that a Democrat actually ran for and won a third term?

Historical ignorance is a sight to behold.
Yes. Trump stealing a second election with the help of Russia and declaring himself emperor for life is the exact same thing as America electing FDR over and over because they just loved him so much.
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Old 28th June 2020, 06:46 AM   #54
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I predict that the polls will look bad for Trump, very bad, right up until the election, then all those people who thought he had gone too far decide to scurry back to the Republicans after all and vote him back in.

A collective thump of jaws will hit the floor, there will be demands that Trump's cabinet invoke the 43rd Amendment, that the electoral college gather to choose Colin Powell as the president, that the Senate impeaches, and that the Supreme Court rule Trump an unnatural entity.
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Old 28th June 2020, 07:31 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
The fact that going by polls (and good polls from multiple poll takers) Texas is right now more competitive than Florida and Iowa and Ohio and all the other traditional big swing states is certainly an eyebrow raising.

In the end when people fish or cut bait I don't seen Biden winning Texas, but the pure symbolism of it having to be a fight does count for something. If Texas winds up being 2020's Florida, a nailbiter race with recounts and moments where it looks like both sides have won or could win, that's gonna be a cultural shift even if Trump still takes it.

I agree that the Republicans having to divert time, money, and just general "oh crap we have at least pay attention to this" resources to Texas while the Dems can still sit and coast in California and New York could be a major factor.
If Texas does need a recount, it won't be a nail bitter. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Biden and Trump are that close in Texas and Biden doesn't carry Florida. A win in Texas would serve us well with our international partners. The world needs to see us give Trump a stunning rebuke. Trump losing Texas would make a strong impression on America watchers outside the US.

Biden is at 248 now with five traditional swing states as toss-ups. If Biden takes Florida, Trump could win the other four and he will still lose. Even better, I don't think Pennsylvania is a toss-up any more. Biden has been polling at 9-10 points ahead there for a few weeks. Wisconsin is looking the same.
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Old 28th June 2020, 07:32 AM   #56
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Among those who follow track & field sports, there's been an informal title, "the fastest man/woman alive" or "the world's fastest man/woman", which was traditionally given to the winner of a certain short sprint, until the next time somebody else won it. For this, there was no need to pay any attention to any other races because this distance always had the fastest start-to-finish speeds anyway. But one Olympics year at least a couple of decades ago, there was some doubt about the "title" because guy X had won the race it's based on but guy Y had managed a higher start-to-finish speed while winning a longer race.

After that event was over, they decided that the way to sort this out was to schedule another race between only those two guys. Sports writer Jason Whitlock, based on X's prior behavior and Whitlock's estimation of his lower ability, said ahead of time that X would fall behind and fake an injury. When the time came, sure enough, X fell behind and then suddenly seemed to be injured.

Right now, Trump is watching the other guy pass by him and trying to figure out how to get out of losing. But his problem is that he's about as obsessed with pretending to be immortal as he is with pretending to be successful, so a medical excuse won't do. I don't know what else one of his minions might come up with for him that would be satisfactory. Claiming threats against himself probably wouldn't do either because it would make him appear not to be completely invulnerable. Claiming threats against someone else probably wouldn't do either because it would make him appear not to be capable of godlike absolutely perfect protection of whoever he cares about (sorry, there's no single word for that like "unvulnerable" and "immortal" and "successful"), plus, he'd think that caring that much about somebody else was a sign of weakness anyway. Maybe he could claim to have been poisoned, so even though it's medical it's some other person's fault instead of his own imperfect health. (?) Maybe he can bring back that doctor who lied for him about his height & weight & who knows what else in exchange for a new job.

Whatever it will take, he's definitely got people already trying to find it right now.

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Old 28th June 2020, 08:01 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I predict that the polls will look bad for Trump, very bad, right up until the election, then all those people who thought he had gone too far decide to scurry back to the Republicans after all and vote him back in.

A collective thump of jaws will hit the floor, there will be demands that Trump's cabinet invoke the 43rd Amendment, that the electoral college gather to choose Colin Powell as the president, that the Senate impeaches, and that the Supreme Court rule Trump an unnatural entity.
So more "Yeah Trump's a monster who's destroying the country but... I mean lookit how triggered those libtards are!"
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Old 28th June 2020, 08:09 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yes. Trump stealing a second election with the help of Russia and declaring himself emperor for life
Do you say this just to bad-mouth Trump (in which case it's not with responding to), or is this scenario something you actually worry about? Because if you do, well, I'm sorry for you, that must be terrible, but I don't think there's anything I can do to help you.
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Old 28th June 2020, 08:09 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
So more "Yeah Trump's a monster who's destroying the country but... I mean lookit how triggered those libtards are!"
Nope. It means don’t count your chickens. Go out and vote him out. If he wins it is too late and all the bad wringing will be futile.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 28th June 2020, 08:21 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Do you say this just to bad-mouth Trump (in which case it's not with responding to), or is this scenario something you actually worry about? Because if you do, well, I'm sorry for you, that must be terrible, but I don't think there's anything I can do to help you.
It doesn't matter. Until it happens it's a "Lookit people being overdramatic" and after it happens it will be all "Oh well you see this doesn't technically count as him declaring himself emperor for life because it's not from the Champagne Region of France."

He's going to graciously accept a lose the exact same way he wasn't going to put kids in cages.
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Old 28th June 2020, 08:35 AM   #61
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Don the Con has bounced back from so many things you can't help thinking he's a cockroach. That he could survive anything.

That said, Trump has botched the COVID pandemic so badly I find it hard to see how he can turn this around.

Trump has been a master at changing the narrative. Usually by saying or doing something even more crazy and outrageous. But he cannot change this narrative. He can't wish away COVID and his daily denial of it delivers a much louder message of incompetence and insanity.
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Old 28th June 2020, 08:35 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Do you say this just to bad-mouth Trump (in which case it's not with responding to), or is this scenario something you actually worry about? Because if you do, well, I'm sorry for you, that must be terrible, but I don't think there's anything I can do to help you.
Nah. If he wins second term, after four years he will be campaigning for third term.

And you will be fervently defending that, with other deplorables. After all, banana republics where multi-term el presidento always somehow wins election are totally democracies.
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Old 28th June 2020, 09:09 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Trump joked about getting elected for a third term, not about cancelling elections, which is what we are talking about here.

Talking about being "president for life" goes far beyond "running for third term." President for life either requires a constitutional amendment, which is nearly impossible at the best of times, or some extra-legal actions, like canceling or faking an election.

You're free to stick your head in the sand and ignore this rhetoric, but you can't claim that fears of him doing something like this are "unsupported", and are no different than previous claims about previous Presidents who did absolutely nothing to suggest they might cancel an election.

I challenged you to show even one comment from even one previous President that even comes close to what Trump has said repeatedly, and of course you haven't even tried to show any. Telling, that.


Quote:
And did you forget that a Democrat actually ran for and won a third term?
And did you forget that they passed a constitutional amendment specifically because of that guy?

Quote:
Historical ignorance is a sight to behold.
Indeed.
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Old 28th June 2020, 09:23 AM   #64
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Trump, who doesn't kid, also said he deserved two more years because of the Russia thing.
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Old 28th June 2020, 12:41 PM   #65
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In the NYT Upshot poll, Biden gets 49 percent of the vote, Trump gets 38 percent of the
vote, for a difference of 11 percent. But look at their sum, 87 percent. A full 13 percent
of the vote just went missing, and at three times the margin of error.

No, no, no, I do not trust.

I want a deeper exploration of this electoral dark matter.
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Old 28th June 2020, 01:42 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It doesn't matter. Until it happens it's a "Lookit people being overdramatic" and after it happens it will be all "Oh well you see this doesn't technically count as him declaring himself emperor for life because it's not from the Champagne Region of France."

He's going to graciously accept a lose the exact same way he wasn't going to put kids in cages.
Oh, I'm not holding my breath for Trump to be gracious about anything. But he won't run for a third term. He's not going to even try. There will be no "after it happens". Instead, you will insist that he only didn't because of your vigilance. It's sort of like whistling to keep tigers away. There aren't any tigers around, so it must have worked.
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Old 29th June 2020, 10:10 PM   #67
The Great Zaganza
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How do you define "third term".
Trump has already declared the upcoming election to be rigged. If he doesn't like the results, he and the GOP might draw out the final results until they get what they like, effectively extending Trump's term in office by a year or so.
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Old 29th June 2020, 10:40 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
How do you define "third term".
Trump has already declared the upcoming election to be rigged. If he doesn't like the results, he and the GOP might draw out the final results until they get what they like, effectively extending Trump's term in office by a year or so.
Trump's current term ends Jan. 20 no matter what. If the election results aren't resolved by then, he doesn't just continue in office. The next in line would take office as Acting President. That would be the Speaker of the House.
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Old 29th June 2020, 11:34 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
Trump's current term ends Jan. 20 no matter what. If the election results aren't resolved by then, he doesn't just continue in office. The next in line would take office as Acting President. That would be the Speaker of the House.
that isn't clear at all.
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Old 30th June 2020, 01:11 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
that isn't clear at all.

What's not clear? The 20th Amendment sets the end of a president's term. The Presidential Succession Act of 1947 sets out what happens if there's no president or vice president. If Trump says "I'm not going," it would be a coup.

Quote:
(1)If, by reason of death, resignation, removal from office, inability, or failure to qualify, there is neither a President nor Vice President to discharge the powers and duties of the office of President, then the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall, upon his resignation as Speaker and as Representative in Congress, act as President.
There might be a question about the line of succession. There's no doubt that Trump doesn't get to stay if he doesn't win the election.
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Old 30th June 2020, 01:49 AM   #71
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The problem comes from when the House of Representatives is constituted after an election that is itself contested.
IF Republican states do some shenanigans and send in election results that give the GOP a majority in the House, they could elect a GOP speaker who could temporarily hold the Presidency in name only.
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Old 30th June 2020, 02:05 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Don the Con has bounced back from so many things you can't help thinking he's a cockroach. That he could survive anything.

That said, Trump has botched the COVID pandemic so badly I find it hard to see how he can turn this around.

Trump has been a master at changing the narrative. Usually by saying or doing something even more crazy and outrageous. But he cannot change this narrative. He can't wish away COVID and his daily denial of it delivers a much louder message of incompetence and insanity.
Massive announcement, a couple of weeks before the election, that a vaccine has been found and that the US will be back to normal in no time at all. President Trump is reelected with a healthy EC majority because "he fixed the Coronavirus" and saved the economy.

Then in December it's revealed that the promised vaccine isn't really that effective and that there are no plans for US mass vaccination for many months, or even years. Waves 2, 3 and 4 of Coronavirus roll over a United States which refuses to have a coordinated approach to it and the upshot is hundreds of thousands dead.
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Old 30th June 2020, 06:20 AM   #73
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Trump should just put "There's no way he can come back from this!" on the red hats to replace MAGA at this point.

He's had more Nixon moments in office then Nixon had bowel movements.
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Old 30th June 2020, 09:16 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The problem comes from when the House of Representatives is constituted after an election that is itself contested.
IF Republican states do some shenanigans and send in election results that give the GOP a majority in the House, they could elect a GOP speaker who could temporarily hold the Presidency in name only.
So private citizen Trump would retain and exercise all the powers of the Presidency? Really?
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Old 30th June 2020, 10:46 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Massive announcement, a couple of weeks before the election, that a vaccine has been found and that the US will be back to normal in no time at all. President Trump is reelected with a healthy EC majority because "he fixed the Coronavirus" and saved the economy.

Then in December it's revealed that the promised vaccine isn't really that effective and that there are no plans for US mass vaccination for many months, or even years. Waves 2, 3 and 4 of Coronavirus roll over a United States which refuses to have a coordinated approach to it and the upshot is hundreds of thousands dead.
That at sometime in the future a vaccine is found does not change how poorly Trump has handled it. Not unless Trump proves how smart he is and invents it himself.
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Old 30th June 2020, 10:50 AM   #76
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You guys are putting way more thought into this this Trump is.

It's simple for Trump. "Make me."
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